largest early draw from natural gas storage on record; record oil output; gasoline supplies up by most in 11 months

largest withdrawal of natural gas from storage this early in the heating season on record; US crude oil production at a record high; gasoline inventories rose by the most since January 5th, 2024

US oil prices rose for the first time in three weeks as an Al Qaeda takeover in Syria raised the geopolitical instability premium on oil​, mopre than offsetting weak fundamentals …after falling 1.2% to $67.20 a barrel last week as weak demand and surplus global supply offset OPEC’s decision to extend their production cuts to April, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for January delivery traded higher on global markets early on Monday​, on increased geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East after Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad was ousted by Syrian rebels on Sunday, then climbed more than 1% in New York after top importer China flagged its first move in four years toward a looser monetary policy to bolster economic growth, and settled $1.17, or 1.7% higher at $68.37 a barrel, lifted by fall of Syria's Assad and China's stimulus plans…oil prices retreated from Monday's gains on global markets early Tuesday, amid a weak demand outlook following disappointing Chinese international trade data for November, then edged down in New York after the US Energy Information Administration forecasted lower prices for both crude benchmarks in 2025, compared to 2024, but reversed th​ose early losses to settle 22 cents higher a​t $68.59 a barrel as traders looked to rising demand in China, the world's largest buyer, and possible tight suppl​i​es in Europe this coming winter…oil traded higher in Asia on Wednesday morning as the market awaited the release of key data on US crude oil inventories, the monthly report from OPEC+, and the US consumer price index, then held those gains in early US trading after US inflation data matched expectations and the EIA report indicated inventories were at ‘tank bottoms” at the Cushing, Oklahoma depot, and settled $1.70 higher at $70.29 a barrel following the news that the European Union agreed to impose further sanctions against Russia over its war against Ukraine…oil prices climbed on global markets early Thursday, as concerns over weak demand and higher-than-expected builds in US gasoline and distillate inventories were offset by the European Union's sanctions on Russian oil flows. but turned lower after the International Energy Agency renewed its warning of a supply surplus next year, and settled ​down 27 cents at $79.02 a barrel, pressured by the IEA forecast for ample supply in the oil market, but supported by rising expectations of a Fed interest rate cut….oil prices inched lower on global markets on Friday as traders focused on forecasts of ample supply and shrugged off expectations of higher demand next year from Chinese stimulus measures, but turned higher in New York as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East more than offset a forecast from the International Energy Agency for slowing demand, and settled $1.27 higher at $71.29 a barrel on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies​, and that lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could boost fuel demand, and thus ended 6.1% higher for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices ended higher for the fifth time in six weeks on a bullish shift in the short term weather forecasts and on the largest withdrawal of natural gas from storage this early in the heating season on record…after falling 8.5% to $3.076 mmBTU last week on a bearish shift in the weather forecasts and a smaller than expected withdrawal of gas from storage, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for January delivery opened 13.1 cents higher on Monday, as the market's attention refocused on forecasted below-average temperatures, then traded flat around $3.190 into the afternoon before closing 10.6 cents higher at $3.182 per mmBTU, boosted by a shift in short-term forecasts to cooler weather that would lead to increased gas demand for heating….however, natural gas prices opened 9.4 cents lower on Tuesday, as steady production and forecasts for weakening demand had directed prices lower overnight, and struggled back from early lows to briefly beat Monday’s last price before settling 1.9 cents lower at $3.163 per mmBTU, on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than was previously forecast, and ​on a one-month low in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants….but natural gas prices opened 11.4 cents higher on Wednesday, finding support in the form of a bullish shift to forecasts overnight, and continued rising to settle 21.5 cents higher at $3.378 per mmBTU on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand, and an increase in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants….natural gas prices opened lower at $3.365 on Thursday, but were quickly propelled upward by a bullish withdrawal figure, and rose to an intraday high of $3.559 shortly after 1:00PM, before pulling back on profit taking and settling 7.7 cents higher at $3.455 per mmBTU, on a larger-than-expected draw from natural gas supplies and forecasts that shifted colder for the eastern half of the US for December 17-21….but natural gas futures plunged through midday trading on Friday, ​o​n profit-taking after a two-day price surge, and settled 17.5 cents lower at $3.280 per mmBTU, on forecasts for warming for most of the US from December 23-27, but still managed a 6.6% gain for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending December 6th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 190 billion cubic feet to 3,747 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the largest December withdrawal since 2017, which left our natural gas supplies 67 billion cubic feet, or 1.8% above the 3,680 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on December 6th of last year, and 165 billion cubic feet, or 4.6% more than the five-year average of 3,582 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 6th of December over the most recent five years, and at the highest December 6th level in 8 years….the 190 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was well more than the 168 billion cubic foot withdraw from storage that was forecast by analysts ahead of the report, and way more than the 72 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in December of 2023, and also much more than the average 71 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that had been typical for the same late December week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 6th indicated that after a big drop in our oil imports was offset by a similar drop in our oil exports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 16th time in twenty-four weeks, and for the 29th time in the last 53 weeks, despite a modest decrease in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for ...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,306,000 barrels per day to average 5,984,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 1,207,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1.136,000 barrels per day to 3,099,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,885,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending December 6th, 170,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 581,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 118,000 barrels per day higher at a record 1,631,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,097,000 barrels per day during the December 6th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,659,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 6th, an average of 251,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 100,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production, and from storage during the week ending December 6th averaged a rounded 537,000 barrels per day more than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -537,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…… However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 100,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an rounded average of 204,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 103,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifty-second SPR increase in the past fifty-nine weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,760,000 barrels per day last week, which was 2.5% more than the 6,597,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 118,000 barrels per day higher at a record 13,631,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 123,000 barrels per day higher at 13,190,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day lower at 441,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 4.1% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 40.6% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 92.4% of their capacity while processing those 16,659,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending December 6th, down from from their 93.3% utilization rate of a week earlier, not an unusual fluctuation at the end of the annual Autumn slowdown, when refineries typically schedule maintenance and seasonally change to producing winter fuel blends…the 16,659,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 3.5% more than the 16,097,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending December 8th of 2023, and 1.6% more than the 16,597,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending December 6th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a fairly low 90.6% for this time of year…

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was ​quite a bit higher, increasing by 549,000 barrels per day to 10,045,000 barrels per day during the week ending December 6th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 248,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 5.3% more than the 9,542,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending December 8th of last year, and 3.0% more than the gasoline production of 9,753,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending December 6th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 86,000 barrels per day to 5,229,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 219,000 barrels per day during the prior week. But after two sharp prior production increases, our distillates output was 4.9% more than the 4,987,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending December 8th of 2023, and 3.1% more than the 5,072,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending December 6th, 2019…

After this week’s big increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the tenth time in fifteen weeks and by the most since January 5th, increasing by 5,086,000 barrels to 219,689,000 barrels during the week ending December 6th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,362,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose by more this week even as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 72,000 barrels per day to 8,810,000 barrels per day, and even as our imports of gasoline fell by 47,000 barrels per day to 464,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 45,000 barrels per day to 1,039,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-four weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.9% below last December 8th’s gasoline inventories of 224,013,000 barrels, and were also still about 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even with this week’s decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the fourth time in twelve weeks, increasing by 3,235,000 barrels to 121,335,000 barrels over the week ending December 6th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 3,383,000 barrels during the prior week.​. Our distillates supplies rose this week even as the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 52,000 barrels per day, as our exports of distillates fell by 79,000 barrels per day to 1,471,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 38,000 barrels per day to 154,000 barrels per day..​ After 26 inventory withdrawals over the past 46 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 6​.9% above the 113,539,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on December 8th of 2023, while they are still about 4% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even after the big increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 17th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 28th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,425,000 barrels over the week, from 423,375,000 barrels on November 29th to 421,950,000 barrels on December 6th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 5,073,000 barrels over the prior week… With this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories slipped to about 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still about 25% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first week of December over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to higher exports relating to the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this December 6th were 4.3% less than the 440,773,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on December 8th of 2023, and 0.5% less than the 424,129,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on December 9th of 2022, and 2.5% less than the 432,870,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on December 3rdof 2021…

This Week’s Rig Count

for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of December 13th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (December 6th) and this week’s (December 13th) count, the third column shows last week’s December 6th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 15th of December, 2023…

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Ohio O&G Commission Approves More Fracking Under State Lands -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) voted to award a contract to Gulfport Energy to drill and frack under (not on) about 30 acres of the Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County. Commissioners also voted to open an additional 884 acres of Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County for oil and gas development. During the meeting, commissioners had to work above the chaotic noise from anti-fossil fuel zealots who dressed up in Christmas attire and sang Christmas “carols” substituting anti-fracking lyrics. Yeah, antis made horses’ rear-ends of themselves, as they typically do.

Panel votes to open up almost 900 more acres of Ohio park land to energy companies for fracking - The state panel that grants permits to drill for oil and gas approved opening up more state park land for fracking. And as has been the case for more than a year, environmental activists tried to interrupt the meeting, this time with shouts and Christmas songs rewritten to include lyrics about fracking.It was almost impossible to hear the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission meeting over about two dozen protestors from Save Ohio Parks, who came in holiday costumes and sang several revised Christmas carols before the meeting opened. They’d hoped written input from around 600 Ohioans – 98% of it against drilling – would lead the panel to vote not to open up parcels of 371.42 acres and 513.11 acres in Salt Fork State Park for bids from energy companies.But the commission approved those requests. The identities of the entities requesting the opportunity to drill are shielded until permits are awarded.The Oil and Gas Land Management Commission also awarded drilling rights to Gulfport Appalachia of Oklahoma for 30 acres in the Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County. It’s unclear when drilling might start.Since last spring, state law has required the commission to move forward the leasing of state lands for drilling, including fracking. A sweeping bill passed in the lame duck session in 2022 sought to speed up the process of permitting drilling on state lands by changing the language on state approval from "may" to "shall." That bill started as a measure to limitsetting limits on buying poultry chicks and turned into what's known as a "Christmas tree bill" because of its many additions. It also declared natural gas "green energy," though it's mostly methane.

OH Senate Passes Bill Extending Time Drillers Can Frack State Land -- Marcellus Drilling News -In something of a surprise (for us), the Ohio State Senate passed House Bill (HB) 308 yesterday, a bill that extends the standard lease terms for drillers who want to drill under (not on) state-owned land from three years to five years. The bill also extends the total amount of time fracking operations can last from six years to eight years. Sensible increases in both cases. The Ohio House previously passed the bill. The Senate version is slightly different from the House version, so it heads back to the House to reconcile the two versions, and then it heads to the desk of RINO Gov. Mike DeWine for his signature. No telling whether he will sign it or not.

Ohio U. Scores $1.5 Million DOE Grant to Study Produced Water -- Marcellus Drilling News - - We’ve discussed shale wastewater, sometimes called brine or “produced water,” many times over the years. When drilling an oil or gas well deep in the earth, the hole releases naturally occurring water from the depths (far, far below the surface water table) for years after the well is drilled. The water coming out has a LOT of minerals, sometimes mildly radioactive, and is usually called either brine (meaning salty) or produced water. Traditionally, there are two ways to handle all of that water coming out of the ground: (1) recycle it and reuse it for more oil and gas drilling, or (2) pump it back down into the ground from whence it came via an injection well. Ohio University (in Athens, OH) has just won a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to study how produced water can be cleaned up and used outsidethe oil and gas sector.

Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Grows Stock Position in Kinder Morgan, Inc ... Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio lifted its holdings in Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI - Free Report) by 17.3% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 867,061 shares of the pipeline company's stock after buying an additional 127,743 shares during the period. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's holdings in Kinder Morgan were worth $19,153,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period. Several other hedge funds have also recently made changes to their positions in the business. Northwest Investment Counselors LLC bought a new stake in shares of Kinder Morgan in the 3rd quarter worth about $28,000. Planning Capital Management Corp lifted its stake in Kinder Morgan by 143.6% in the third quarter. Planning Capital Management Corp now owns 1,352 shares of the pipeline company's stock worth $30,000 after purchasing an additional 797 shares during the last quarter. HM Payson & Co. lifted its stake in Kinder Morgan by 401.8% in the third quarter. HM Payson & Co. now owns 1,430 shares of the pipeline company's stock worth $32,000 after purchasing an additional 1,145 shares during the last quarter. Activest Wealth Management grew its stake in shares of Kinder Morgan by 63.0% during the third quarter. Activest Wealth Management now owns 1,478 shares of the pipeline company's stock valued at $33,000 after buying an additional 571 shares during the last quarter. Finally, HWG Holdings LP purchased a new stake in shares of Kinder Morgan in the second quarter worth approximately $30,000. 62.52% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors. In other news, Director Amy W. Chronis acquired 2,241 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, November 5th. The shares were acquired at an average cost of $24.89 per share, with a total value of $55,778.49. Following the completion of the acquisition, the director now owns 23,995 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $597,235.55. This trade represents a 10.30 % increase in their ownership of the stock. The acquisition was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. Also, Director C Park Shaper sold 690,142 shares of the company's stock in a transaction on Monday, October 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $24.75, for a total transaction of $17,081,014.50. Following the completion of the sale, the director now directly owns 6,809,858 shares in the company, valued at approximately $168,543,985.50. The trade was a 9.20 % decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders have sold a total of 727,263 shares of company stock worth $18,075,634 in the last ninety days. 12.81% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Decreases Stock Position in The Williams Companies - Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio trimmed its position in The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB - Free Report) by 4.7% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 442,112 shares of the pipeline company's stock after selling 22,023 shares during the quarter. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio's holdings in Williams Companies were worth $20,182,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. A number of equities analysts recently issued reports on WMB shares. The Goldman Sachs Group increased their price target on shares of Williams Companies from $45.00 to $55.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Tuesday, November 26th. CIBC increased their target price on Williams Companies from $45.00 to $54.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research report on Tuesday, October 22nd. UBS Group raised their target price on Williams Companies from $55.00 to $70.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, November 15th. Barclays upped their price target on Williams Companies from $42.00 to $46.00 and gave the stock an "equal weight" rating in a research note on Wednesday, October 2nd. Finally, Citigroup raised their price objective on Williams Companies from $45.00 to $52.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 3rd. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, eight have given a hold rating and nine have assigned a buy rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $52.07.

Utica shale well in Forest County to undergo assessment - A Utica shale well in Forest County will undergo a 60-day assessment period after crews finished fracking the Tionesta Township well in late September. Rob Boulware, a spokesman for Seneca Resources, said the company will spend 60 days assessing a horizontal Utica shale well that was fracked in September in a heavily forested area about one and a half miles off of Hemlock Road in Tionesta Township.

OH Drops 1, PA Adds 1 Rig; National Rig Count Soars, Adds 7 @ 589 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Baker Hughes national rig count dramatically increased last week, adding seven rigs for a national count of 589. Note that the national count continues to be rangebound between 581 and 589 since June (except for Sep. 13, when it hit 590 for a single week). Will we break out of the rut and go higher? Stay tuned. Meanwhile, the Ohio Utica lost one rig last week, but the Pennsylvania Marcellus picked it up, keeping the combined M-U count at 35

28 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Dec 2 – 8 For the week of Dec 2 – 8, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica bounced back nicely. There were 28 new permits issued last week, more than doubling the 12 issued the week before (and matching the 28 issued three weeks ago). The Keystone State (PA) issued 18 new permits, with eight going to EQT spread across three counties: Jefferson, Lycoming, and Washington. Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) received four permits, all of them in northeastern PA’s Wyoming County. CNX Resource scooped up two permits, both in Westmoreland County. The final four permits were singles issued to Blackhill Energy (Bradford County), XPR Resources (Centre County), Inflection Energy (Lycoming County), and Olympus Energy (Allegheny County). ALLEGHENY COUNTY | ANTERO RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BLACKHILL ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CENTRE COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | INFLECTION ENERGY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (PA) | LYCOMING COUNTY | OLYMPUS/HUNTLEY & HUNTLEY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY | WYOMING COUNTY (PA) | XPR RESOURCES

SRBC Approves 1 New, 3 Renewed Water Requests for Shale Drillers - Marcellus Drilling News - - The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals for responsible and safe shale drilling. Yesterday, the SRBC board approved 14 new (or renewed) water withdrawal requests within the basin, four for water used in drilling and fracking shale wells in Pennsylvania. Coterra Energy received two water request approvals, and Expand Energy (Chesapeake Energy & Southwestern Energy) received the other two.

PA+WV+OH Produced Nearly One-Third of All U.S. NatGas in 2023 -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported five states produced more than 70% of the record 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023. Two of the five were in the Marcellus/Utica: Pennsylvania (18% of the country’s gas) and West Virginia (8% of the country’s gas). We did some digging and found that when adding the production from PA, WV, and OH, the three together represented 31.5% of all the natural gas produced in the U.S. in 2023. It is an astonishing fact!

Details on Diversified Deal to Plug More Wells in WV, OH, PA - One month ago, we brought you the news that Diversified Energy and EQT Corporation had settled a class action lawsuit originally brought by several West Virginia landowners (see EQT, Diversified Settle WV Class Action Lawsuit re Old Wells). There is the money aspect of the lawsuit, a payout of up to $6.5 million (subject to attorneys grabbing one-third of that). But then there is (in our opinion) the more important aspect of the settlement that requires Diversified to dramatically increase the number of wells it plugs over the next 10 years

Northern Oil and Gas Investing $160M in Marcellus/Utica in 2025 - Marcellus Drilling News -Yesterday, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) announced it had entered a Joint Development Program with an unnamed Marcellus/Utica driller to invest $160 million in 2025 for new well drilling. In return, NOG will receive a 15% working interest (i.e., ownership) in the assets. NOG did not identify the driller but called it “one of Appalachia’s most capital efficient operators.”

Methane Emissions in Marcellus/Utica Down 52% from 2019 to 2023 -Marcellus Drilling News - The environmental left is hellbent on regulating fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas, out of existence. One of their favorite (false) memes is to claim methane is a bazillion times more "potent" in causing global warming than other things, like carbon dioxide. The false narrative continues that shale drilling is causing a stratospheric increase in fugitive methane leaks into Mom Earth's atmosphere. Except....it isn't true. According to data from the Environmental Protection Agency, methane emissions from the country’s top oil and gas-producing basins have fallen 44 percent since 2011. Methane emissions right here in the Marcellus/Utica have fallen 52% from 2019 to 2023!

Woodside Taps Bechtel to Build $1.3B Revamped Louisiana LNG Project - Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has tapped Bechtel Energy Group to continue work on the Driftwood LNG project, now dubbed Louisiana LNG, under a new engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract. Bechtel Corp. would lead construction and development of the three train, 16.5 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity project in Hackberry, LA under the lump sum turnkey agreement. The EPC firm has been working on the project site under a limited notice to proceed from Tellurian Inc., which was acquired by Woodside earlier in the year. CEO Meg O’Neill said securing Bechtel and locking in pricing and a construction schedule for the project builds on the momentum the Australian company has achieved since opening up equity talks with potential partners.

Is First Plaquemines Cargo Soon? Feed Gas, Vessels Amass — Signs that the first cargo at Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana are mounting as Venture Global LNG Inc. continues to receive FERC orders allowing it to commission equipment. Feed gas flows to Plaquemines reached 0.1 Bcf Wednesday, about 5% of operational pipeline capacity to the terminal, according to NGI calculations. The Venture Global-owned vessel Venture Bayou was also anchored in the Mississippi River near the facility that is southeast of New Orleans, according to Kpler data. Ship data also indicated that a QatarEnergy-controlled vessel could arrive at Plaquemines as soon as Jan. 5, before carrying a cargo to an Indian import terminal, according to Kpler.

Plaquemines LNG Coming Online, Will Hose Customers for 2 Years -- Marcellus Drilling News - According to a Reuters report, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG export facility (Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana) could start to liquefy natural gas as early as today. It will mark the first new U.S. LNG export plant to come online in two years. The 20 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) export plant was set to draw over 100 million cubic feet (MMcf/d) of natural gas for the first time yesterday. When fully online, it will use 2.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas. We suspect some (much?) of the gas comes from the Marcellus/Utica as the plant has an interconnection with the Texas Eastern Transmission Company (TETCO) pipeline—a pipeline that flows M-U gas southwest. However, we’re not elated with the news of Plaquemines’ startup.

More Pipelines, Storage Capacity Desperately Needed to Support Next LNG Wave, Execs Say - U.S. LNG export growth is increasingly threatened by the inability to build infrastructure for a backlog of projects and additional, growing natural gas demand, executives said at an industry conference in Washington, DC. Chart showing U.S. LNG export projects that are under construction and the expected natural gas feed capacity. Despite other regulatory hurdles in recent years, such as the Biden administration’s pause on authorizing new export projects, Golden Pass LNG’s Chief Commercial Officer Jeff Hammad said permitting and pipeline construction has emerged as a leading obstacle to domestic LNG development. Most of the nation’s existing export capacity is crowded along the Gulf Coast, while roughly two dozen other projects have been proposed for the region. That has made it necessary to “stretch out” and tap into pipeline capacity farther outside the area, Hammad said during remarks at the North American Gas Forum.

Expanding U.S. LNG Exports to Drive Natural Gas Price Relief, Asian Decarbonation, Wood Mackenzie Says -- Delays in global LNG projects, especially in the United States, threaten to push natural gas prices higher for longer, potentially closing the door for emerging Asian economies to quickly decarbonize, according to Wood Mackenzie researchers. Graph showing global LNG supply/demand balance. Asia is forecast to drive a surge in LNG demand through the middle of the century, with Asian countries increasing consumption to 510 million tons/year (Mt/y) in 2050 from 270 Mt/y in 2024, researchers wrote in a new report commissioned by the Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association (ANGEA). However, that demand largely depends on a massive increase in global supply that is expected to be propelled by projects in the United States, which have yet to reach a final investment decision (FID).

LNG Export Permitting Sidelined By Federal Court Spats, DOE Says - As pressure mounts on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to open the flood gates for new worldwide LNG export permits, the agency blamed fallout from federal court decisions for delaying its considerations of two large-scale LNG export projects. Graph showing commercially advanced North American LNG export projects impacted by the Biden administration's pause on LNG exports. DOE staff released a statement Tuesday seeking to clarify questions over whether the Biden administration is continuing to process non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permit applications despite its ongoing study into the impacts of U.S. natural gas exports on the climate and domestic market. In September, the agency complied with a federal court order to restart NFTA permit considerations by granting a five-year license to New Fortress Energy Inc.’s Fast LNG facility in Mexico. However, DOE staff wrote in a statement, a review of two major Louisiana export projects that have been pending NFTA consideration for years cannot be completed at this time because of actions from FERC.

Trump Administration Builds Options for Unleashing U.S. LNG, but Obstacles Could Remain, Experts Say - The incoming administration could be planning to use a novel set of tools to grant a wave of LNG export permits, according to energy experts, but the pending U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) study could still complicate the process. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) chart showing global LNG futures settle prices through 2027. As inauguration day approaches, President-elect Trump and his transition team have indicated they plan to target the Biden administration’s pause on new non-free trade agreement (NFTA) permits that have kept developers and long-term customers on edge since January. On Tuesday, Trump also made an overture on Truth Social, his social media network, to the business community, promising to streamline “all environmental approvals” for “any person or company investing [$1 billion]” or more in the United States.

Five states drove record U.S. natural gas production in 2023 - U.S. Energy Information ...Five states produced more than 70% of the record 113.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023. Texas accounted for 28% of U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023, according to our Natural Gas Monthly, followed by Pennsylvania (18%), Louisiana (10%), West Virginia (8%), and New Mexico (8%). Even though production slowed in 2024, output from these five states continued to make up most—73%—of marketed U.S. natural gas this year.In 2023, marketed natural gas production in Texas, which includes offshore output from fields in state waters, totaled 31.6 Bcf/d, a 7% increase from 2022. The Permian and Haynesville plays, which combined account for nearly 40% of U.S. dry natural gas production fromshale gas plays, are in Texas.The Permian region also extends into New Mexico, where production averaged 8.7 Bcf/d in 2023, an increase of 18% compared with 2022. Because most Permian production of natural gas is associated natural gas from oil wells, producers respond to changes in the crude oil price rather than the natural gas price when planning their exploration and production activities. Adjusted for inflation, the annual West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price averaged $102 per barrel (b) in 2022—the highest price since 2014—before moderating to $80/b in 2023. As a result, marketed natural gas production in both Texas and New Mexico established new records in 2023.Marketed natural gas production in Louisiana, which includes offshore output from state waters, averaged 11.8 Bcf/d in 2023, an increase of 6% from 2022 and the most natural gas produced in Louisiana since 1996, despite low natural gas prices. Production in Louisiana mostly comes from the Haynesville region, located in both Louisiana and Texas. The United States became the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in 2023, and producers in the Haynesville play continued to supply much of the natural gas used by Gulf Coast LNG export facilities.In 2023, natural gas production in Pennsylvania matched the 2021 record of 20.9 Bcf/d, a 1% increase over 2022, and West Virginia production reached a record 8.9 Bcf/d, an increase of 11%. Natural gas production from both states comes from the Appalachian Basin, which contains the Marcellus and Utica shale gas plays, and accounted for 32% of U.S. marketed natural gas production. Growth in U.S. marketed natural gas production has slowed in 2024, due mainly to reduced output from shale and tight formations. From January through August 2024, U.S. production of marketed natural gas averaged 113.0 Bcf/d, a 1% increase compared with the same period in 2023. The Permian region drove the increase in 2024, supported by WTI crude oil prices that averaged $80/b. Production in Texas increased 5% (1.5 Bcf/d), and output in New Mexico increased 12% (1.0 Bcf/d). Less production in Louisiana, where output decreased 15% (1.8 Bcf/d), and Pennsylvania, where output decreased 2% (0.5 Bcf/d), offset growth in the Permian region. Producers in the Haynesville and Appalachia regions curtailed production in 2024 when faced with record-low Henry Hub prices, which averaged $2.09 per million British thermal units through August 2024, and flat growth in demand from LNG export facilities.

Exxon Plans Large Nat Gas Plants To Supply Electricity To Data Centers - It isn't just nuclear projects getting in on the "selling power to data centers" trend - now oil supermajor Exxon is joining the trend. In fact, Exxon is planning a large natural gas-powered plant to supply electricity directly to data centers, incorporating technology to capture over 90% of its carbon emissions, according to the New York Times. This would be Exxon’s first power plant not dedicated to its own operations. Carbon capture systems remain rare and costly, despite federal subsidies, limiting their broader adoption. CEO Darren Woods said this week: “There are very few opportunities in the short term to power those data centers and do it in a way that at the same time minimizes, if not completely eliminates, the emissions." Exxon exec Dan Ammann added: “We’re being driven by the market demand here. It’s low carbon, it’s available on an accelerated timeline and it avoids all the grid interconnection challenges.” Tech giants are increasingly willing to pay extra for reliable clean energy, including nuclear power. Here are Zero Hedge we spent most of 2024 documenting numerous tech giants like Google, Meta and Microsoft all inking deals with nuclear power generators to secure data center power in the future. The New York Times adds that Exxon, having secured land and engaged potential customers, plans to launch its gas-powered plant within five years—faster than building new nuclear reactors. Uniquely, the plant would operate off-grid, avoiding lengthy grid connection delays. This move highlights how the growth of data centers and AI is transforming the energy sector, pushing Exxon into a business it once avoided. Chevron could be next, too. Its CEO Mike Wirth predicts off-grid power projects will become more common, and Exxon is exploring similar ventures, aiming to launch a gas-powered plant with carbon capture technology. Exxon plans to spend $30 billion over six years on emission reduction and alternative energy while expanding oil and gas production. The company sees growing electricity demand from data centers as an opportunity to enter the power business, leveraging its expertise in carbon management and pipeline networks.

Kinder Morgan Eyes Growth From Natural Gas Infrastructure, Energy Projects - Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) plans to invest $2.3 billion in expansion projects and joint ventures in 2025, as the pipeline giant continues to capitalize on strong natural gas demand across North America. Graph showing Kinder Morgan Inc.'s expected natural gas demand growth through 2030. “We expect to continue benefiting from strong natural gas market fundamentals driving growth on our existing natural gas transportation and storage assets, as well as creating expansion opportunities,” President Tom Martin said in an investor update Monday (Dec. 9). The Houston-based midstreamer, which transports about 40% of U.S. natural gas production, recently sanctioned several major projects. These include a $455 million expansion of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline from the Permian Basin and a $3 billion South System 4 Expansion of its Southern Natural Gas Co. LLC system in the Southeast.

Henry Hub NatGas Spot Price Reached All-Time Lows in November -- Marcellus Drilling News - Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. As part of our coverage, we highlighted the news that the EIA is predicting natural gas prices this winter and for all of 2025 will be roughly 40% higher than the Henry Hub price for gas in November (see Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25). Here is “the rest of the story.” Gas prices will be higher now and into 2025 because the Henry Hub spot price of natural gas in November hit record all-time lows (since 1997). No wonder the price will “soar” by 40% compared with November—it’s not a very high bar to exceed. In fact, the ten lowest Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas (since 1997) all happened in 2024, with four of those low prices happening in November.

Henry Hub Spot Prices to Average $3 Through Winter as Cold Weather, LNG Drive Consumption, EIA Says - Henry Hub spot natural gas prices fell for the second consecutive month in November, but should climb in 2025 on the back of winter cold and expanding domestic export capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Graph denoting Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) the historical Henry Hub bidweek natural gas price, forward curve, annual average and residential natural gas price, annual average and forecast price using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. In the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December, researchers noted that spot gas prices in November averaged $2.00/MMBtu, down from $2.20 in October. The decline in prices was attributed to mild autumn weather. In addition, natural gas inventories were 6% above the five-year average to start the winter heating season.

US natural gas up more than 3% to 1-week high as weather turns colder (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose over 3% to more than a one-week high on Monday, helped by a shift in short-term forecasts to cooler weather that would lead to increased gas demand for heating. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 10.6 cents up, or 3.4%, to $3.182 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 02:55 p.m. EST (1955 GMT). "Weather outlook for later in the month shifted significantly colder for the northeastern U.S., a key region for natural gas demands. That shift added to potential withdrawal projections and is helping support a push to the higher end of the range near $3.30," The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 30 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Nov. 29. Early estimates for the week ending Dec. 6 ranged from withdrawals of 49 bcf to 187 bcf, with an average decrease of 138 bcf. That compares with a withdrawal of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average decrease of 71 bcf. "Much of this strength appears to represent another expected Arctic blast at about the middle of this week that will be prompting a larger-than-normal storage withdrawal next week that is apt to follow a sizable reduction in the surplus per this week's data," "However, we are not expecting much upside follow-through beyond today's high because of another warm-up in the weather forecasts next week and possibly into the holiday period ... some production slippage and steady export activity may be adding to today's gains but don't appear sufficient to spur additional strength unless accompanied by disrupted output due to freeze-offs." LSEG estimated 355 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the forecast of 368 HDDs on Friday. It forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 130.5 bcfd this week to 126.7 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 14.2 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were down on Monday morning on a warmer weather outlook and with the market shrugging off the geopolitical developments in Syria.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 7% to Two-Week High on Colder Weather, Rising LNG Exports (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% on Wednesday to a two-week high on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand and an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21.5 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $3.378 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest since Nov. 29. That was the highest daily percentage increase since prices rose 7.7% on Nov. 25. The front-month price jump boosted the premium of futures for January over February to a record 22 cents per MMBtu, topping the prior closing high of 21 cents in December 2022. Some analysts, however, have said that winter, and the high prices it usually brings, could be over before the season officially starts now that the heavily traded March-April "widow maker" spread is trading in unusual contango. That means the April contract is priced higher than the March contract. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season, and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Because gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, summer prices typically do not trade above winter ones. It is possible that gas prices hit their 2024 peak in November when they reached $3.56 per MMBtu. Over the past five years, prices hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 26. With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 128.8 Bcf/d this week to 123.0 Bcf/d next week. The forecasts for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.0 Bcf/d so far in December, up from 13.6 Bcf/d in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. Gas prices were trading around $14 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and near an 11-month high of $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

Nat-Gas Prices Push Higher on a Bullish Weekly Storage Report January Nymex natural gas (NGF25) on Thursday closed higher by +0.077 (+2.28%)Jan nat-gas prices on Thursday rallied for a second session and posted a 2-1/2 week high. A larger-than-expected draw in weekly nat-gas supplies Thursday propelled prices higher after the EIA reported nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 6 fell -190 bcf, a bigger draw than expectations of -168 bcf. Also, the outlook for colder US temperatures to boost heating demand for nat-gas is boosting prices after the Commodity Weather Group said forecasts shifted colder for the eastern half of the US for December 17-21.Lower-48 state dry gas production Thursday was 104.9 bcf/day (-0.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Thursday was 112.5 bcf/day (+11% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Thursday were 13.6 bcf/day (-4.4% w/w), according to BNEF.An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended December 7 rose +10.87% y/y to 83,412 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 7 rose +1.96% y/y to 4,173,295 GWh.Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 6 fell -190 bcf versus expectations of -168 bcf and a much larger draw than the 5-year average draw for this time of year of -71 bcf. As of December 6, nat-gas inventories were up +2.3% y/y and were +4.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 81% full as of December 10, below the 5-year seasonal average of 83% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending December 6 rose +2 rigs to 102 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low from September 6 of 94 rigs. Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987)

US natural prices drop 5% from 13-month high on rising output, mild weather forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Friday from the 13-month high reached in the prior session on forecasts for mostly mild weather through late December and rising supplies as producers keep pulling more gas out of the ground. The price decline happened even as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach an 11-month high, as Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines plant, which is under construction in Louisiana, likely started pulling in enough fuel to produce first LNG. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.5 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $3.280 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest level since November 2023. For the week, the front-month was up about 7% after falling about 9% last week. Despite this week's price increase, some analysts have said that winter, and the high prices it usually brings, could be over before the season officially starts now that the heavily traded March-April "widow maker" spread is trading in unusual contango. That means the April contract is priced higher than the March contract. It is also possible that gas prices hit their 2024 peak in November when they reached an intraday high of $3.56 per mmBtu. Over the past five years, prices hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 102.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 28, except for a few colder-than-normal days from Dec. 21-23. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 129.4 bcfd this week to 125.0 bcfd next week before rising to 136.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has risen to an average of 14.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. LNG feedgas on Thursday was reduced when a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas tripped off line due to an issue with the compressor system, according to a company filing with state environmental regulators. The Freeport train has likely returned to service since flows to the plant were on track to reach a one-month high of 2.3 bcfd on Friday, according to LSEG data.

Could rising natural gas prices derail Trump’s energy agenda? - President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to cut energy costs for average Americans is already hitting a major hurdle — not from the renewables he blasted on the campaign trail but from the fossil fuels he pledged to “drill, baby, drill.” New forecasts show the price of natural gas is set to jump in the coming years despite record-high U.S. production. The projections are driven by dramatic increases in demand and too few pipelines to transport the product.Those market dynamics could cause the costs of heating U.S. homes and manufacturing goods to spike in the coming years.“We expect prices to rise substantially,” said Paul Cicio, president of the trade association Industrial Energy Consumers of America. “It’s inflationary on all the products we produce, from consumer goods to industrial goods and national defense goods.”Election observers say inflation was a major reason Trump won at the polls in early November. While stumping for a second term, Trump and his Republican allies slammed Democrats for rising prices, pointing to a rapid increase in the price of electricity under President Joe Biden.Trump vowed to cut U.S. energy bills by 50 percent in just 12 months. Some experts say that’s all but impossible.While wind and solar prices are decreasing annually, the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the price of natural gas has ticked up since the election to above $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Gas prices had fallen to less than a $1.50 per MMBtu earlier in 2024, according to EIA, the data-crunching branch of the Department of Energy. The data shows gas consumption outstripping supply, a key market dynamic that often leads to higher prices.On Tuesday, EIA said it expects the average U.S. benchmark spot gas price to rise from a little above $2 per MMBtu in November to about $3 per MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season. EIA has predicted that the price of natural gas in the U.S. will average $3 for all of 2025, which would be a roughly 36 percent increase from 2024’s level.New forecasts from the law firm Haynes Boone show U.S. gas prices reaching about $3.20 per MMBtu in 2026, at which point they plateau for the rest of the decade, even as crude oil prices fall from current levels. That forecast is a slightly lower price than the firm projected in the spring.A spike would fly in the face of Trump’s pledge. And yet, energy experts say the forecasts are not surprising.“The industry has shown a remarkable ability to produce more gas on demand. How far that can go? We don’t know,” said Paul Bledsoe, a lecturer at American University’s Center for Environmental Policy and a Clinton-era White House veteran. “It looks like we’re about to enter of period of increased export and domestic demand.”Demand for natural gas is likely to balloon under Trump, based in large part on liquefied natural gas exports and artificial intelligence data centers that demand a lot of energy. Natural gas is already the most popular way to power homes and businesses in the U.S.That demand creates faces a “real challenge for the industry to keep prices low,” Bledsoe said.

Oil Spill in Boston River Threatens Wildlife – Newsweek – An oil spill in a Boston river on Sunday has threatened nearby wildlife as rescue efforts to save dozens of geese and ducks coated in hazardous petroleum continued on Monday. The oil spill, first reported on Sunday at the Muddy River on the border of Boston and the town of Brookline, has mobilized police, firefighters and environmental agencies to contain the damage and care for affected wildlife. According to police, responders found there was some kind of leak into the waterway that impacted wildlife. The leak, traced to a storm drain under a nearby condominium complex, released less than 100 gallons of oil into the river, according to Danielle Burney, spokesperson for the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. While officials are investigating the exact source of the spill, it is being contained and managed, Burney added. Efforts to rescue the birds, predominantly Canada geese and mallards, are being spearheaded by the New England Wildlife Center. "The New England Wildlife Center is on-site to collect affected waterfowl for treatment and rehabilitation at their facility. They will continue to monitor the area to ensure the safety and well-being of the local wildlife," Burney said to The Associated Press. According to Katrina Bergman, the New England Wildlife Center's president, it could take up to a month for the birds to be treated and released back into the wild, adding that so far, 20 birds have been rescued, but dozens more are expected to require treatment. The Muddy River, a well-known spot for walkers and joggers near Fenway Park, has become an emergency response zone as rescue teams are carefully collecting affected birds, ensuring minimal stress to prevent further harm. "We don't want to cause them to do any extra activity, especially if they have oil in the mouth and nose, that could do more damage," Zak Mertz, the center's CEO, told The Associated Press. While the community has expressed concern and a desire to assist, authorities emphasized the importance of trained personnel handling the situation. In addition, Brookline police issued a statement urging residents to let experts with the proper equipment manage the crisis. "We know that members of the community are concerned for the well being of the impacted wildlife and were interested in what they could do to help. On scene for something like this it's important that we only use people with proper PPE and training," Brookline police said in a statement. Meanwhile, as rescuers remain focused on nursing the Muddy River's wildlife back to health, officials are continuing their investigation into the cause of the spill.

Texas Tops Up Natural Gas Salt Storage to Record Ahead of Winter Risks, LNG Ramp -Underground supplies of natural gas in Texas salt storage facilities have climbed to new records as traders position for potential winter volatility and the startup of two new LNG export projects. Bar chart depicting monthly Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) Houston Ship Channel differential to Waha natural gas forward prices. Texas salt storage levels reached 152 Bcf in October then rose to 155 Bcf in mid-November, Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) data showed. That preliminary reading for Nov. 15 was an all-time record and followed the state’s highest October salt injection in a decade, according to Criterion Research Inc.’s James Bevan, vice president of research. “Keep it filling up,” Bevan said on online energy platform Enelyst after a 9 Bcf build in salts drove a net South Central injection in the weekly government storage report last week. Related Tags

ExxonMobil’s LNG Trade, in Parallel With Permian and Guyana Liquids, Set to Lead Growth to 2030 - Liquids and LNG will be the backbone for ExxonMobil’s business until at least 2030, as the supermajor looks to capitalize on innovation in a world thirsty for energy, the executive team said Wednesday. Natural Gas Intelligence's top 30 list of publicly traded natural gas producers in the third quarter of 2024. “Nobody has our opportunities – or solutions,” CEO Darren Woods told analysts as he kicked off a conference to update the corporate and upstream strategy. ExxonMobil underwent a reset in early 2022 after a decision to pull out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The company put in motion a strategy to focus on global LNG, growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana’s offshore, as well as low-carbon opportunities.

Energy Transfer Greenlights 1.5 Bcf/d Permian-to-Dallas Natural Gas Pipeline -Energy Transfer LP has sanctioned a 1.5 Bcf/d intrastate natural gas pipeline out of the Permian Basin. (a map of the proposed Warrior natural gas pipeline) Formerly known as the Warrior Pipeline, the project has been renamed the Hugh Brinson Pipeline, management said Friday afternoon, in honor of CEO Kelcy Warren’s father. Construction of the conduit, which is backed by long-term, fee-based commitments, is planned to occur in two phases.

Energy Transfer to build nearly $3 billion new gas pipeline in the Permian Basin - - Energy Transfer LP, the company that acquired Oklahoma City-based Enable Midstream in a $7.2 billion deal three years ago is expanding its operations in a nearly $3 billion deal. The Dallas based firm announced it reached a positive final investment decision for the construction of an intrastate natural gas pipeline connecting Permian Basin production to premier markets and trading hubs. The new large-diameter pipeline, previously called the Warrior Pipeline, is being renamed in honor of Hugh Brinson and will now be known as the Hugh Brinson Pipeline. The pipeline will provide much needed transportation capacity out of the Permian Basin to serve growing natural gas demand. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline is expected to be constructed in two phases with the first phase including the construction of approximately 400 miles of 42-inch pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). It will extend from Waha to Maypearl, Texas located south of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex, where it will then connect to Energy Transfer’s vast pipeline and storage infrastructure. Phase I is expected to be in service by the end of 2026. As part of Phase I, Energy Transfer will also construct the Midland Lateral, which is expected to be a 42-mile, 36-inch lateral to connect Energy Transfer and third-party processing plants in Martin and Midland Counties to the Hugh Brinson Pipeline. Phase II of the project would include the addition of compression to increase the capacity of the new pipeline to approximately 2.2 Bcf/d. Depending on shipper demand, Phase II could be constructed concurrently with Phase I. Combined costs of Phase I and Phase II are expected to be approximately $2.7 billion. The project is backed by long-term, fee-based commitments with strong investment grade counterparties. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline will connect shippers to Energy Transfer’s existing intrastate natural gas pipeline network and other downstream pipelines. In addition, it will provide shippers with the optionality to access prolific markets and trading hubs throughout Texas and beyond, including Carthage and Katy. This project is also expected to further establish Energy Transfer as the premier option to support power plant and data center growth in the state of Texas.

Texas governor: Trump told me he would slash EPA regs - — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and top Trump donor Kelcy Warren said Thursday they expect the incoming administration to sharply reduce oil and gas regulations and encourage more drilling to lower energy prices. At the Dallas Citizen Council’s annual meeting Thursday, Abbott, a Republican, said President-elect Donald Trump called him shortly after the election to talk about his plans for the energy sector. During the call, Abbott recalled Trump saying he was going to “get rid of the EPA regulations that have tied the hands of the energy sector in the state of Texas.”“He genuinely and forcefully embraces supporting, pushing and advancing more drilling,” Abbott said during a lunch panel at the meeting. “It’s going to be game on on Jan. 20.” The oil and gas industry as well as lawmakers in Republican states have been compiling wish lists of Biden-era regulations they hope Trump will throw out. It’s unclear how quickly, and how many, rules the new administration will be able to roll back, but both Warren, the executive chair of gas and pipeline giant Energy Transfer, and Abbott said they expect Trump to start making changes on his first day in office.

Washington state voters banned gas bans. Now they’re in court. - Climate advocates are challenging a voter-approved measure that blocks Washington state from banning natural gas in buildings.A coalition of health and environmental groups, along with the city of Seattle and King County, filed a lawsuitthis week arguing that Initiative 2066 violates the state’s Constitution. The ballot initiative effectively bans gas bans by state and local governments.The suit filed in King County Superior Court against the state asserts that voters were misled about the “true nature” and sweeping effect of the initiative, which narrowly passed last month. It also argues that the measure violated a requirement that proposed initiatives address only a single subject and that it failed to spell out each state law that it would alter.“Let’s be clear: this Initiative is unconstitutional and will affect regulations that protect our air, protect public health, ensure building safety, and respond to the realities of climate change,” said Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell.

Biden administration moves ahead with Alaska wildlife refuge oil lease sale - The Biden administration is moving ahead with the smallest possible oil and gas lease sale controversially mandated to take place in a wildlife refuge.The Bureau of Land Management is required to auction off opportunities to drill in the Alaska wildlife refuge by the end of this year under 2017’s Tax Cuts and Job Act.Many Democrats have opposed drilling for oil there, and the Biden administration now says it will auction off only the minimum 400,000 acres required under the law. The rights to drill in the refuge will be auctioned off on Jan. 9 — just 11 days before President-elect Trump takes office. The lease sale will be the second one required by the law. The Trump administration carried out the first in 2021, though amid significant activist pushback against drilling in the refuge, there was very little interest in actually drilling there the first time that rights to drill were offered. The few drilling leases that were issued at the time were later suspended by the Biden administration, which cited “multiple legal deficiencies.” In its new decision the Biden administration also said it is limiting the sale to the places with the highest potential for oil and gas discovery.It additionally does not offer up drilling in polar bear denning and migratory bird nesting areas — and seeks to protect other species such as caribou.The Arctic refuge is home to grizzly bears, polar bears, gray wolves, caribou and more than 200 species of birds and contains land considered sacred by the Gwich’in people.

Crude oil recovered after train collision in Sancti Spíritus - Cuba-Petroleum Union (CUPET) announced this Sunday that its teams are working intensively to recover the oil spilled following the train accident that occurred in the Guayos area, in the province of Sancti Spíritus. In a brief message on the social network Facebook, the company announced that workers from the Sergio Soto Refinery are working to recover part of the approximately 60,000 liters of Cuban crude stored in one of the cars of the two freight trains that had an accident on Saturday morning. According to the digital page of the weekly Escambray, Carlos Enríquez Díaz Bernal, the deputy director of the aforementioned refinery located in Cabaiguán, specified that the extraction is intended for the tank trucks of the industry. Meanwhile, the causes of the incident are being investigated, which involved a vehicle transporting resources from the Mariel Special Development Zone to Camagüey and another vehicle coming from the deposits in the Avila region for further fuel processing. Despite the severe collision and significant economic losses, no human casualties were reported, according to a social media post by Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila, the island's Minister of Transportation. In 2024, train accidents in Cuba have become a recurring problem, reflecting the deterioration of infrastructure and the lack of safety at railway crossings.

Russia Could Lose Its Largest European LNG Import Loophole in Latest Natural Gas Crackdown -- French LNG terminal operator Elengy, the top European importer of Russian gas, has agreed to ban Russian transhipments of the super-chilled fuel through its infrastructure starting next spring. Bar graph showing Europe's natural gas import source over four years. Elengy disclosed it is planning to fully comply with the 14th package of European Union (EU) sanctions on Russia, including participation in a mandatory reporting program to track deliveries of LNG volumes. Despite discussions of an EU-wide ban of Russian LNG, France has received a record volume of Russian LNG this year. Europe has imported 16.37 million tons (Mt) of Russian LNG since the beginning of the year, including 5.9 Mt via French terminals, according to Kpler data.

EU’s new energy chief vows to end Russian fuel ties for good - Dan Jørgensen is making it his “main priority” to craft a plan that will finally sever all European Union energy links with Russia.In his first interview since taking office as the EU’s new energy chief, Jørgensen warned that the EU is faltering in its multiyear campaign to shun Russian fuel and needed a plan to get things back on track.He pointed to the EU’s rising purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas as a particular concern — and a reversal of the bloc’s downward trajectory. Additionally, five EU countries still rely on Russia for nuclear fuel.“To have been able to bring down our dependency to such an extent that we have is actually quite an accomplishment,” Jørgensen said, speaking from his largely as-yet-unfurnished office in the European Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters.

Ukraine's Gas Pipeline Operator TSO Modernizes with Help from USAID | Pipeline Technology Journal -- The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) is making strides in modernizing its pipeline operations with the development and testing of a new mobile application for equipment maintenance and repair (EMR). This innovative tool, developed with the support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Energy Security Project (ESP), aims to streamline asset management processes and enhance operational efficiency. By automating task planning and providing real-time control over work performance, the EMR application empowers maintenance and repair teams to optimize their efforts. The app offers a user-friendly interface that allows technicians to view assigned tasks, plan efficient routes to facilities, and report on their progress, including material usage, time spent, and visual documentation. This digital solution is expected to yield significant benefits for GTSOU by reducing the frequency of emergency shutdowns and improving the quality of equipment repairs. The app will make gas transportation more reliable and efficient. Additionally, it will optimize the reporting on the technical condition of facilities, enabling data-driven decision-making. The implementation of the mobile EMR application is part of a broader USAID-supported initiative to modernize GTSOU's asset management system. This comprehensive effort will help reduce operating costs, optimize operations, and enhance the overall efficiency of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.

Russia’s Pipe-Gas Flows to China at New Daily Record-- Gazprom said it set a new record for daily pipeline gas supplies to China on Saturday. Daily flows via the Power of Siberia gas link exceeded Russia’s maximum contractual obligations, Gazprom said in a statement, without providing a figure. On Dec. 1, Gazprom raised deliveries to the daily equivalent of 38 billion cubic meters per year, the design capacity of the Power of Siberia, it said. China is on track to become the largest market for Russia’s pipeline gas this year, with Gazprom becoming more reliant on China as a buyer after most of its European customers shunned Russian supplies in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

China's Nov crude oil imports rebound on lower prices, stockpiling (Reuters) - China's crude oil imports jumped in November from a year earlier for the first annual growth in seven months, data showed on Tuesday, driven by lower prices of Middle East supplies and additions to the national stockpile. The world's top crude oil buyer took in 48.52 million metric tons last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, up 14.3% from 42.45 million tons a year earlier and equivalent to about 11.81 million barrels per day. Daily average imports were the highest since August 2023 and up from a low base in November 2023 of 10.33 million bpd. Despite the rebound, year-to-date imports were 1.9% lower, potentially pointing to a decline for the whole of 2024. A decline from 2023 would mark the third annual fall in the past five years after pandemic-triggered drops in 2021 and 2022. Refiners in November bought more oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq following sharp cuts in the official selling prices, offsetting some of the decline in imports of Iranian oil because of reduced loadings in October. Loadings at export terminals, including Iran's Kharg Island hub, had dropped significantly in October from September, with ship owners concerned about possible Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, according to tanker trackers Kpler and Vortexa. China's newest refiner Shandong Yulong Petrochemical ramped up a 200,000 bpd crude unit to around 90%. Yulong Petrochemical is also aiming for trial runs on a second unit of the same size as early as January. The new refinery's increased runs and China's issue of an additional crude oil import quota of at least 5.84 million tons (116,800 bpd) to independent refiners for 2024 should help to lift December imports, according to traders. China has also asked state oil companies this year to add 8 million tons of crude to its emergency stockpiles to boost supply security. Stockpiling in the eastern province of Shandong, where most refiners are located, started in late September with imports of Russian and Middle East crude, Vortexa analyst Emma Li wrote in a report. The November data also showed China's natural gas imports, comprising both liquefied natural gas (LNG) and piped gas, declined 1.4% on the year to 10.80 million tons. Year-to-date volumes are up 12% over the same period last year at 120 million tons. Exports of refined oil products, which include diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and marine fuel, rose 3% from a year earlier to 5.23 million tons and were up versus October's 3.96 million tons, which was the lowest since April 2023. Exports of gasoline rebounded in November as refiners dashed to secure higher profits before changes to export tax rebates took effect in December.

Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty in the Middle East - The oil market on Monday traded higher in light of increased geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East after Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad was ousted by Syrian rebels on Sunday and hopes of revived Chinese demand. While Syria is not a major oil producer, it holds geopolitical importance due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran. A tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in the Red Sea to head away from its original destination. Meanwhile, China announced it would adopt loose monetary policy next year to support economic growth in the country. It said it would increase consumption and expand domestic demand. The oil market posted a low of $67.08 on the opening and retraced more than 50% of its move from a high of $70.51 to a low of $66.98 as it traded to a high of $68.88 by mid-morning. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The January WTI contract settled up $1.17 at $68.37 and the February Brent contract settled up $1.02 at $72.14. The product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.09 cents at $2.1835 and the RB market settling up 4.63 cents at $1.9525. Syrians awakened on Monday to a hopeful if uncertain future, after rebels seized the capital Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, following 13 years of civil war and more than 50 years of his family’s rule. President Assad’s fall wiped out a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world. Russian media reported and Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, said Russia gave asylum to Assad and his family. International governments welcomed the end of the Assads’ autocratic government, as they sought to take stock of the new situation in the Middle East. U.S. President Joe Biden said Syria is in a period of risk and uncertainty, and it is the first time in years that neither Russia, Iran nor the Hezbollah militant organization held an influential role there. HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the U.S., Turkey and the United Nations, although it has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure international governments and minority groups within Syria.A tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in Red Sea to head away from its original destination after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Suezmax tanker Lotus, carrying about 1 million barrels of Iranian oil, turned around just before the Suez Canal on December 8^th to start sailing southbound in the Red Sea.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 25,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 13^th, raising available refining capacity by 64,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to remain at 25,000 bpd in the week ending December 20^th. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center report today that for the week ending December 7^th, the U.S. recorded 238 HDDs on an oil home heating customer weighed basis. This was some 36 HDDs better than normal and 53 HDDs higher than the same week a year ago. For the current week ending December 14^th the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting just 187 HDDs. This weekly total would be 31 HDDs less than normal and 7 less than same week a year ago.

Oil rises over 1% on ouster of Syria's Assad, Chinese monetary policy (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Monday on higher geopolitical risk after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and as top importer China flagged its first move towards a loosened monetary policy stance since 2010. Brent crude futures settled $1.02, or 1.4%, higher at $72.14 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.17, or 1.7%, to $68.37. "Events in Syria over the weekend could impact the crude market and increase the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices in the weeks and months to come amid yet more instability in the Middle East region," said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis. Syrian rebels said on state television on Sunday they had ousted Assad, ending a 50-year family dynasty and raising fears of more instability in a region gripped by war. While Syria is not a major oil producer, it holds geopolitical clout due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran, and mixed with the tensions elsewhere in the region, the regime change has potential to spill into neighbouring territories, Leon said. In early signs of disruptions in the oil market, a tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in the Red Sea, ship-tracking data showed.Meanwhile, China will step up "unconventional" counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, state media Xinhua reported, citing a readout of a meeting of top Communist Party officials, the Politburo.China's growth has stalled as a slump in the property market has hit confidence and consumption. Loosening policy refers to actions by a central bank or government to boost growth, such as increasing money supply, lowering interest rates, and implementing fiscal stimulus."We see a commodity-price boom if China indeed follows through with the promises of looser monetary policy and the possibility that they will do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy," China's slowdown was a factor behind the decision of oil producers' group OPEC+ last week to postpone plans for higher output until April.Weighing on prices, leading exporter Saudi Aramco on Sunday reduced its January 2025 prices for Asian buyers to their lowest level since early 2021, as markets worried it could signal weak demand.Traders also remained focused on U.S. inflation data expected later this week that could cement a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.Lower interest rates decrease the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and spur demand for oil.

Crude oil prices under pressure amid disappointing Chinese data - Crude oil prices retreated from Monday's gains amid weak demand outlooks, following disappointing Chinese international trade data for November. Crude oil prices slid following disappointing China's international trade data in the Asian session on Tuesday. At 6 am CET, Brent futures were down 0.37% to $71.9 per barrel, and the WTI futures slipped 0.45% to $68.06 per barrel. The swift downturn in oil prices highlighted an ongoing weak demand outlook for the traditional energy markets, driven by the global economic slowdown, particularly in China. China's exports rose 6.7% and imports fell 3.9% from a year ago in November, both of which were significantly lower than economists' estimated 8.7% and a rise of 0.9%. On Monday, China also reported a weaker-than-expected consumer price index (CPI), underlining the ongoing sluggish domestic demands. Crude oil prices rose more than 1% rally on Monday amid China's pledge to adopt more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies to aid the economy in 2025. The top officials said China would "implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy" at the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee. The statement signalled Beijing would impose more aggressive stimulus measures, such as raising the fiscal deficit, lowering the interest rates, and increasing government borrowings to shore up its economic growth in the new year. As the world's biggest oil importer, China's demand outlook has a direct influence on the crude markets. According to LSEG estimates, China's oil imports averaged 10.94m barrels per day (bpd) in the first 10 months of the year, a 3.7% decline from the same period last year. However, November's imports reached a four-month high of 11.62m bpd. On a positive note, a report from S&P Global projected that China's oil demand may increase by 1.7% to 17.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. This improved outlook likely reflects Beijing's ongoing stimulus measures, announced in September with sweeping easing policies to support its faltering economic recovery. However, analysts from Commodity Insights caution that rising production in the United States and Canada, along with output increases by OPEC+, may balance supply and demand, mitigating any price impact from increased demand. Last week OPEC+ postponed its plan to unwind the joint output cuts last week amid a slowdown in global demand and rising US production. The organisation, supplying about half of the world's oil, decided to delay hiking its production by three months and a full recovery in output by a whole year until the end of 2026. "Ultimately, the market will be focused on demand side factors given that OPEC has tried to tweak the supply side to boost prices, so far to no avail. The marginal driver of future demand will be China. So, for oil to continue to rally, we need steady, good news about the Chinese economy," The only bullish factor for the oil markets is intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Syrian rebels toppled the government and ousted President Bashar al-Assad. The event, combined with escalating military conflicts between Iran and Israel, as well as the war in Ukraine, altogether increased uncertainties in the region. In late November, crude prices rose more than 9% during the week due to a major war escalation between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine launched US-made longer-range missiles targeting a military base inside Russian territory, promoting Russia to lower its doctrine to use nuclear weapons. Russia also fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine, marking a major escalation in the geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia. However, the price surge was short-lived amid ceasefire talks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump pushed Russia to reach an immediate truce with Ukraine.

Oil Futures Down on Low EIA Crude Price Forecast for 2025 -- The front-month NYMEX crude contract prices for January deliveries and Brent crude contract prices for February edged down on Tuesday after the Energy Information Administration forecasted lower prices for both crude benchmarks in 2025, compared to 2024. According to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, EIA anticipates a WTI spot price average for $71.63 barrel (bbl) in 2025, compared to an estimated average of $76.96 bbl for 2024. Meanwhile, the EIA-STEO report forecasts a Brent spot price average of $76.08 bbl for 2025 from a forecast of $80.93 bbl for 2024.Throughout Tuesday, oil futures showed few changes as participants await market direction from U.S. inflation data for November, to be released on Wednesday. Oil futures showed little change this morning as market participants remained In a wait-and-see situation as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release November's Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.Economists expect the Consumer Price Index for November to increase 2.7% year-on-year, from 2.6% in October.The inflation data will be a key factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025 to as low as 3% from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The decision will be announced on Dec. 18, when the Federal Open Market Committee meets.Downstream, the national average for retail regular gasoline continued lower as of Dec. 9, down by 2.6 cents to $3.008 gallon, hitting a multi-year low since the week ended May 10, 2021, according to the latest data from the EIA.Separately, the International Air Transport Association expects net profits of $36.6 billion for the global airline industry in 2025, an increase of 3.6% compared to last year, driven by lower jet fuel prices. IATA estimates total industry revenues to reach $1.007 trillion, a 4.4% hike year-over-year, surpassing the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Near 3:51 p.m. EST, January WTI fell $0.02 to $68.35 bbl while February Brent was $71.95 bbl, down $0.78. January RBOB futures dropped by $0.0048 to $1.9477 gallon and January ULSD futures fell $0.0039 to $2.1796 gallon.

The Market Focused on Hopes of Increased Demand in China - The oil market continued to trade higher on Tuesday as the market focused on the hopes of increased demand in China. The strength in the market follows the reports that China will adopt loose monetary policy next year in an attempt to prompt economic growth. The market was also supported by news that China’s crude oil imports increased annually for the first time in seven months, increasing by 14.3% on the year in November. Early in the morning, the market posted a low of $67.72 as concerned eased about the fallout from the ouster of Syria’s President. Syrian rebels were working to form a government and restore order and the country’s banks and oil sector were resuming work on Tuesday. The oil market bounced off its low and rallied to a high of $69.06 by mid-day amid the economic news from China. It later erased some of its gains as traders positioned themselves ahead of the weekly petroleum stocks reports later on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The January WTI contract settled up 22 cents at $68.59 and the February Brent contract settled up 5 cents at $72.19. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 26 points at $2.1861 and the RB market settling up 43 points at $1.9568. The EIA estimated in its Short Term Energy Outlook that world petroleum demand in 2024 is expected to increase by 890,000 bpd to 103.03 million bpd and increase by 1.29 million bpd to 104.32 million bpd in 2025. Its world oil demand estimate for 2024 was cut from a previous estimate of 103.1 million bpd and its estimate for 2025 was also cut from a previous forecast of 104.4 million bpd. World oil output in 2024 is forecast to increase by 570,000 bpd to 102.59 million bpd, while output in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.65 million bpd to 104.24 million bpd. OPEC crude output is forecast to fall by 100,000 bpd to 32.07 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 160,000 bpd to 32.23 million bpd in 2025. U.S. oil output is estimate to increase by 310,000 bpd to 13.24 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 280,000 bpd to 13.52 million bpd. U.S. net crude oil imports are forecast to fall by 20% next year to 1.9 million bpd, the lowest level since 1971. U.S. total petroleum products demand is forecast to increase by 10,000 bpd to 20.29 million bpd in 2024 and by 240,000 bpd to 20.53 million bpd in 2025. Gasoline demand in 2024 is expected to remain unchanged at 8.94 million bpd but increase by 10,000 bpd to 8.95 million bpd in 2025, while distillate demand is forecast to fall by 80,000 bpd to 3.8 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 160,000 bpd to 3.96 million bpd in 2025. The EIA lowered its forecast for WTI prices to $76.51/barrel in 2024 from a previous forecast of $77/barrel and the estimate for 2025 was lowered to $69.12/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $71.60/barrel. The EIA also lowered its estimate for Brent crude prices to $80.49/barrel in 2024, down from a previous forecast of $80.95/barrel, while the forecast for 2025 was cut to $73.58/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $76.06/barrel. China’s crude oil imports in November increased from a year earlier for the first annual growth in seven months, driven by lower prices of Middle East supplies and additions to the national stockpile. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed China imported 48.52 million metric tons or 11.81 million bpd in November, up 14.3% from 42.45 million tons a year earlier.

OPEC’s Oil Production Rose in November as Libyan Output Jumped - Crude oil production from all OPEC members rose by 104,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November compared to October, the organization’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed on Wednesday.Total OPEC-12 crude oil production averaged 26.66 million bpd last month, as output in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria increased, according to OPEC’s secondary sources used to track supply to the market.Of the three countries where production rose the most in November from the previous month, two – Libya and Iran – are exempted from the OPEC+ production cuts due to political instability and Western sanctions, respectively.In November, Libya’s crude oil production jumped by 141,000 bpd to 1.238 million bpd, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.Recently, Libya’s oil output hit an 11-year high of over 1.4 million bpd, after recovering from the dip in September due to the field blockades over a row about the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya, the only internationally recognized depository of Libya’s oil revenues.Production in Iran rose by 37,000 bpd to 3.323 million bpd in November, per OPEC’s secondary sources.The third OPEC producer exempted from the cuts, Venezuela, saw its output decline by 20,000 bpd.Among the biggest OPEC members, the top producer and de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, continued to keep its pledge to pump “around 9 million bpd”—its oil production averaged 8.963 million bpd in November, down by 10,000 bpd from October OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, saw its output drop by 45,000 bpd to 4.043 million bpd—reflecting efforts to fall in line with its quota, which is 4 million bpd.The rise in OPEC’s production for November comes as the OPEC+ group, comprising OPEC and a dozen non-OPEC producers led by Russia, last week decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.

OPEC Revises Oil Demand Growth Forecast Lower For Fifth Straight Month: Retail’s Pessimistic -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its oil demand growth forecast for the fifth straight month according to its monthly oil market report.OPEC revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 lower by 210,000 barrels/day (b/d) to 1.6 million b/d. The bulk of the revision was made in the third quarter of 2024, taking into account the recently received bearish data. For 2025, oil demand growth forecast witnessed a downward revision by 90,000 b/d to 1.4 million b/d. Most of the downward revision is in the third quarter of 2025, given the downward revision of Q3 2024 and generally lower demand growth in 2025 compared to 2024, it said. The group expects total world oil demand to reach 106.9 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 105.3 million b/d in 2025.Following the announcement, oil prices continued to trade in the green. Brent crude futures maturing in Feb. 2025 were trading 0.96% higher at $72.88 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures maturing in January were up 1.24% at $69.44 per barrel.The United States Oil Fund LP (USO), which tracks the daily price movements of light, sweet crude oil, was up 1.75% on Wednesday. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits, however, continued to trend in the ‘bearish’ territory (44/100), accompanied by high message volume. The downward revision to oil demand comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced last week its member countries will extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, announced in November 2023, until the end of March 2025.OPEC+ had said the 2.2 million barrels per day adjustments will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of Sept. 2026 to support market stability. The monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, it added.Despite the ongoing wars in the middle-east as well as Ukraine, oil prices have remained subdued for a greater part of the year. The USO stock is up over 10% on a year-to-date basis.

Crude Oil: Market Set to Be in Surplus Despite OPEC+ Action The global Crude Oil market is set to return to surplus in 2025 despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. This surplus should see prices trending lower next year. However, there are risksOil prices have come under a fair amount of pressure this year, with the market worried about demand and the surplus outlook for 2025. Even after a handful of OPEC+ members decided to further delay the return of 2.2m b/d of additional voluntary cuts, our balance is still showing that the market will be in surplus through 2025 – although admittedly the surplus is more modest following action taken by the group. The scale of the expected surplus has shrunk from more than 1m b/d to around 500k b/d now.Non-OPEC supply in 2025 is forecast to grow by around 1.4m b/d, which exceeds demand growth estimates of a little under 1m b/d next year.The surplus environment means that prices are likely to remain under pressure and we expect ICE Brent to average US$71/bbl over 2025.There are clear risks to this view, including a stricter enforcement of sanctions against Iran and OPEC+ deciding to further delay the return of 2.2m b/d of supply. In addition, there is growing instability in the Middle East – something the market remains fairly complacent about.Action taken by OPEC+ in early December has shown participants that the group appears committed to trying to keep the market in balance. We were of the view that falling prices, rising non-OPEC supply and some members producing above production targets would make it increasingly difficult for the group to continue with the significant supply cuts we are seeing.The group proved us wrong at its December meeting by not only delaying the gradual return of 2.2m b/d of supply from January to April, but also by planning to increase supply at a slower pace. This means that the group is planning to take 18 months to return this full supply, compared to 12 months previously. So instead of increasing supply by around 180k b/d every month, the group will increase supply by a little less than 140k b/d.While the delay in returning supply likely lifts the floor for the market slightly, we do not believe it changes the underlying issue. Eventually, the group will have to accept lower prices. Otherwise, it will continue to lose market share to non-OPEC producers.Following recent action from OPEC+, it looks more likely that the group will extend cuts further if needed in 2025. However, it is important not to rule out the risk of growing disagreement between the group, particularly if oil prices remain under pressure. Lower oil prices translate to lower oil revenues for OPEC members and this has weighed on many Middle Eastern producers’ fiscal budgets.The way to try to maintain oil revenues is by pumping more. So, compliance among some members may slip if prices trend lower. We have seen a handful of producers already pumping above their production targets for much of the year. The Saudis raised concerns over some members not sticking to production targets and the risk that oil prices could fall substantially lower – possibly an indirect threat that if members do not stick to cuts, they would increase output, potentially starting a price war. We don’t have to go back very far to see the potential impact this can have on the market. In 2020, a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia saw oil prices plummet, although this also coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic.For much of this year, there has been plenty of focus on geopolitical events in the Middle East and concerns that escalation could have an impact on Iranian supply as well as potentially regional supply. However, despite tensions, the lack of disruption to oil supply has meant that the market has become increasingly immune to developments in the Middle East. We would likely need to see an actual supply disruption in order to push oil prices significantly higher.The amount of spare production capacity OPEC is sitting on also provides some comfort to the market. OPEC sits on more than 5m b/d of spare production capacity, so in the event of a supply disruption, there is sizeable capacity to make up for any disruptions. However, OPEC would likely be slow to bring capacity back online, holding out for higher prices. Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price is over US$90/bbl, so they would like to see prices trading closer to this level – although they would not want to push prices too high, given the risk of demand destruction.In the event that we see disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, this spare capacity wouldn't prove very helpful, given that most of OPEC’s spare capacity sits in the Persian Gulf and this supply would have to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Basrah crude prices climb as global oil markets steady - On Wednesday, Basrah crude oil climbed, following the increase in global oil prices. Basrah Heavy crude oil prices surged by $0.33, settling at $66.44 per barrel. Basrah Medium crude oil prices gained $0.33 to $69.59 per barrel.Globally, oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as market participants anticipated increased demand in China, the world's largest crude importer, following Beijing's announcement of looser monetary policy measures aimed at boosting economic growth. Brent crude futures climbed 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.55 a barrel by 0430 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.95.

WTI Holds Gains As 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing Hub; US Production Hit Record High - Oil prices are up this morning on the possibility of tighter sanctions on Russian crude and held its gains after US inflation data matched expectations. US consumer prices rose 0.3% in November, meeting expectations and leaving traders to focus on a report that the Biden administration is considering tougher sanctions on Russia’s oil trade. Curtailing Russian barrels could tighten the market and drive up prices before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Details of the possible measures were still being worked out, according to people familiar with the matter.The market is focused on the official crude inventory data from the US Department of Energy after API reported a small buildup last week.API

• Crude +500k
• Cushing -1.5mm
• Gasoline +2.85mm
• Distillates +2.45mm

DOE

• Crude -1.425mm
• Cushing -1.298mm
• Gasoline +5.086mm - biggest build since January
• Distillates +3.235mm

The official data made somewhat of a mockery of the API data overnight with a large drawdown in crude stocks and at the Cushing and major product builds... Graphics from Bloomberg. Cushing stocks are testing 'tank bottoms' once again... Despite another weekly addition to the SPR, total crude stocks fell for the third week in a row... US Crude production surged to a new record high last week (13.6mm b/d)... WTI dipped modestly on the official data but is holding gains for the day for now...

The European Union Agreed to Impose Further Sanctions - The crude market maintained its upward momentum on Wednesday and rallied higher following the news that the European Union agreed to impose further sanctions against Russia over its war against Ukraine. The market was well supported by the news as the sanctions in particular target Russia’s shadow fleet that has helped Russia bypass the $60/barrel price cap imposed by the G7 on Russian seaborn crude. The oil market posted a low of $68.44 on the opening and continued on its recent upward trend. The market found early resistance and pared some of its gains following the OPEC monthly report, which showed a cut to its demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025. However, the market traded higher and never looked back on the news of the sanctions imposed against Russia. The market rallied to a high of $70.46 ahead of the close. The January WTI contract settled up $1.70 at $70.29 and later posted a high of $70.53 in the post settlement period. The February Brent contract settled up $1.33 at $73.52. The product markets were also well supported, with the heating oil market settling up 3.72 cents at $2.2233 and the RB market settling up 2.9 cents at $1.9858. OPEC lowered its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 global oil demand growth in the fifth consecutive cut to the producers group’s monthly report. OPEC said it now expects 2024 global oil demand to increase by 1.61 million bpd, down from a previous forecast of 1.82 million bpd. OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to 1.45 million bpd from 1.54 million bpd.The European Union on Wednesday gave preliminary backing to its 15^th round of sanctions against Russia. The latest package will include an extension of an exemption for Slovakia to trade petroleum products derived from Russian oil through June 2025. The sanctions package also includes restrictions on some 45 additional Russian oil tankers and several firms involved in shipping Russian oil as well as listing some 50 individuals and nearly 30 entities and freezing their assets and imposition of travel bans. The sanctions package also looks to impose penalties for several Chinese firms that reportedly have been helping Russian companies develop attack drones for use against Ukraine.U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said the United States is continuing to look for creative ways to reduce Russia’s oil revenue and hamper its ability to wage war in Ukraine.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 25,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 13^th, raising available refining capacity by 64,000 bpd. It said offline capacity is expected to remain at 25,000 bpd in the week ending December 20^th.U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in November, the largest gain since April after advancing 0.2% for four consecutive months. In the 12 months through November, the CPI increased 2.7% after increasing 2.6% in October. Excluding the food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% in November, increasing by the same margin for the fourth consecutive month. In the 12 months through November, the core CPI gained 3.3%. That followed a similar advance in October.

U.S. oil prices top $70 for first time in over 2 weeks on tight-supply concerns Crude-oil prices ended higher for a third straight session on Wednesday, with China's plans to boost its economy expected to lift energy demand and as talk of potential new U.S. oil sanctions on Russia raised prospects for tighter global supplies.Official U.S. data released Wednesday also revealed a weekly fall in domestic crude supplies for a third consecutive week, while the major oil producers known as OPEC cut their oil-demand growth forecasts for this year and next.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for January delivery CL.1 CLF25 rose $1.70, or 2.5%, to settle at $70.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices ending at their highest since Nov. 22, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- February Brent crude BRN00 BRNG25, the global benchmark, climbed by $1.33, or 1.8%, at $73.52 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
• -- January gasoline RBF25 added 1.5% at $1.99 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF25 rose 1.7% to $2.22 a gallon.
• -- Natural gas for January delivery NGF25 settled at $3.38 per million British thermal units, up 6.8% Wednesday. Month to date, it's up just 0.5%.

Oil prices gained following a report by Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Biden administration is considering new sanctions on Russian oil in a effort to weaken Russia's ability to fund its war with Ukraine, before incoming U.S. President Donald Trump takes office.A U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Russia may use its lethal intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine again in the coming days, the Associated Press reported, citing a U.S. official.That would "definitely amp up the risk," and with reports that the U.S. is looking to toughen sanctions on Russia, there may be "some protection buying in the [oil] complex," New Russian oil sanctions had been "previously avoided due to concerns over global energy cost spikes," . But "bolder measures are now deemed viable, with oil prices currently subdued by a global surplus and increasing anxieties that the incoming administration may push for a swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.""This shift could impose new pressures on one of the world's largest oil producers," he said in a daily note. "Until the specifics of the sanctions are revealed, this could establish a floor under oil prices," said Innes. "If the sanctions prove substantial, we could see oil prices climb higher."Support for oil has also been tied to the recent pledge by China's Politburo on more aggressive stimulus measures."Experts see supporting domestic spending and investment as key factors to support growth," . "The crystallization of the impact of the recent support packages and reforms over the next year, in conjunction with easy monetary conditions, should accelerate the recovery," he wrote in market commentary.Oil prices were up despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report Wednesday, lowering its forecast for 2024 global oil demand growth by 210,000 barrels per day from the November report to 1.6 million barrels per day, year-on-year. For 2025, it also cut its oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.The reductions marked the fifth month in row that OPEC has lowered its oil demand growth projections, according to The Wall Street Journal. OPEC's downward revision likely "partially reflects the challenging growth outlook in China," said Kenny Zhu, research analyst, Global X, in emailed commentary.Weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies from the Energy Information Administration released Wednesday showed decline of 1.4 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 6.The report was expected to show a decline of 600,000 barrels on average, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude inventory climb of 499,000 barrels, according to a source citing the data.The EIA also reported weekly supply gains of 5.1 million barrels for gasoline and 3.2 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Commodity Insights survey forecast inventory gains of 1.7 million barrels each for gasoline and distillates.U.S. oil production was up by 118,000 barrels at 13.631 million barrels per day in the latest week, the EIA said. That's a fresh record high.Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery hub fell by 1.3 million barrels to 22.9 million barrels, data showed. Demand for gasoline rose, with total motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, at 8.810 million barrels per day in the latest week, from 8.738 million bpd from a week earlier.Separately, a monthly report from the EIA released Tuesday showed expectations for a oil supply deficit this year, with total world oil output forecast at 102.6 million barrels per day and total world consumption at 103.0.

Basrah crude prices climb as global oil markets steady - Shafaq News - On Thursday, Basrah crude oil rose by more than $1 amid steady global oil markets.Basrah Heavy crude gained $1.02, reaching $67.46 per barrel, while Basrah Medium crude climbed $0.97 to settle at $70.56 per barrel.Global oil prices remained stable as concerns over weak demand and higher-than-expected builds in US gasoline and distillate inventories were offset by the European Union's sanctions on Russian oil flows. By 01:41 GMT, Brent crude futures edged down $0.05 to $73.47 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dipped $0.11 to $70.18 per barrel.

Oil settles flat; markets weigh IEA surplus forecast, rate cut optimism (Reuters) - Oil prices settled close to unchanged on Thursday, pressured by a forecast for ample supply in the oil market but supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Brent crude futures settled down 11 cents, or 0.15%, to $73.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.38%, at $70.02. The International Energy Agency made a slight upward revision to its demand outlook for next year but still expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied. On Wednesday, OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month."If you look at the actual data, the IEA is saying that the glut they predicted should be happening right this minute," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. Global oil inventories fell by 39.3 million barrels in October as low refinery activity coincided with a rise in global oil demand, data from IEA showed.In the U.S., inflation rose slightly in November, in line with economists' expectations. Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut rates again, feeding optimism about economic growth and energy demand."The inflation report creates a lot of comfort. It could have been better, but it seems to be low enough for the Fed to reduce rates at the next meeting," In the world's top oil consumer, the U.S., gasoline and distillate inventories rose by more than expected last week, Energy Information Administration data showed.Global oil demand rose at a slower than expected rate this month but has remained resilient, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.Chinese crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14% from a year earlier.In the Middle East, Iran agreed to tougher monitoring by the U.N. nuclear watchdog at its Fordow site dug into a mountain after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade there, putting pressure on prices.

Oil Snaps Three-Day Rally on Expectation of Supply Glut in 2025 -- Oil snapped a three-day rally to settle near $70 a barrel with expectations for a supply glut in 2025 countering geopolitical risks. The International Energy Agency on Thursday reiterated its calls for a large supply surplus next year, despite OPEC’s decision to delay output hikes. The agency’s forecast runs counter to that of the US government, which sees markets in balance next year.Crude’s inability to surpass its 50-day moving average also stymied the recent rally, with the technical level providing a ceiling for prices for almost three weeks. Still, WTI held onto most of the week’s gains“We are swimming in oil and will be for some time,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. But firm physical markets and the possibility of new sanctions on Russia are allowing some traders to maintain a bullish outlook, he added.Oil earlier pared losses on reports that the conflict in the Middle East is escalating. Traders tracking the risk of supply disruption in the region pointed to a Times of Israel report saying Israel’s military sees the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad as an opportunity to carry out a strike on Iran. The report, citing unnamed military officials, comes as Israel continues its offensive in the nation.Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a softer global oil market might create an opportunity for further action against Russia’s energy sector, and Donald Trump’s pick for national security adviser vowed a return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran.

China Stockpiling Offers Short-Term Reprieve for Oil Light crude oil futures climbed 4.52% this week as of Thursday, reflecting a mix of supportive and limiting factors that shaped market activity. Key drivers included Chinese economic policy changes, Middle Eastern unrest, U.S. inventory levels, and global supply forecasts.China’s announcement of a "moderately loose" monetary policy boosted expectations for higher crude demand. This marked the country’s first easing of monetary policy in over a decade, aimed at addressing weak economic growth, low consumer confidence, and a faltering property market.Chinese crude imports surged by more than 14% year-over-year in November, breaking a seven-month streak of declines. However, much of this increase appears to be tied to stockpiling rather than a robust recovery in consumption. Concerns persist over China’s long-term demand, given its economic pivot toward renewables and electric vehicles.Political upheaval in the Middle East added uncertainty to the oil market. Syrian rebels deposed President Bashar al-Assad, ending his decades-long regime but raising the potential for broader regional tensions. While Syria’s oil production is negligible, its alliances with Russia and Iran could influence regional supply security. The European Union also tightened sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a network of ships bypassing the G7 price cap on Russian crude.…

Oil edges lower on 2025 supply surplus forecast – Oil prices inched lower on Friday as investors focused on a forecast of ample supply and shrugged off expectations of higher demand next year from Chinese stimulus measures, while eyeing another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. Brent crude futures edged down 8 cents to $73.33 a barrel by 0125 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.95 a barrel, down 7 cents. The International Energy Agency expects non-OPEC+ nations to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, driven by the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. Supply is expected to exceed demand growth forecast of 1.1 million bpd, IEA said in its monthly oil market report, raising its demand forecast from 990,000 bpd last month. Demand growth would be seen “largely in Asian countries due to the impact of China’s recent stimulus measures”, it said. Three of Canada’s biggest oil producers forecast higher production in 2025. Building on record production in the U.S., Goldman Sachs expects Lower 48 shale oil production to grow by 600,000 bpd in 2025 although the growth could slow if Brent falls below $70 a barrel. Still, Brent and WTI are on track to notch a weekly gain of more than 3% as concerns about supply disruption from tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran, and hopes that Chinese stimulus measures could lift demand at the world’s No. 2 oil consumer support prices. Chinese crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, driven by lower prices and stockpiling. Crude imports at the world’s largest importer are set to stay elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota. Investors also eyed the impact of tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran on supplies from the major oil producers to China and India. They are also betting that the Fed will cut borrowing costs next week and follow up next year with further reductions, after economic data showed weekly claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose.

Oil Futures Gain on Limited Supply Outlook -- The NYMEX WTI futures contract for January delivery and February Brent futures contract remained bullish Friday, closing with gains over $1 on the day, as additional sanctions on Russia could lead scarce availability of Russian crude and oil products in the global markets. This week, EU ambassadors announced a 15th package of sanctions against Russia by adding more persons and entities to the already existing sanctions list and targeting shadow fleet that Russia uses to evade restrictions on transporting oil and fuel. With the hike in oil futures prices Friday, the market seems to have discounted the outlook for slow global demand in 2025 as forecasted by OPEC and the International Energy Agency in two separate reports this week.Meanwhile, attention next week will be centered on the Federal Open Committee meeting, where the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points after the 0.7% increase in November, the Consumer Price confirmed that the inflationary pressures continue.On industry news, latest data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of rigs in the U.S. actively drilling for oil remained at 482 as of Friday, 19 fewer than a year earlier. The number of U.S. natural gas rigs in operation held to the upside, rising one to 103 as of Friday. Currently, there are 16 fewer natural gas rigs in operation than during the same week in 2023, the same data showed.Canada-based Suncor Energy said it aims to grow its upstream production around 810,000-840,000 bpd and its refining utilization of 93% to 97% next year. For 2025, the operator anticipates adding over 100,000 bpd to its output from 2023 to 2026, with refining margins based on a crack spread of $22 bbl for New York Harbor and $18 bbl for Chicago.Airlines for America (A4A) also projects U.S. airlines will see record air travel throughout the holiday season, expecting more than 54 million passengers to fly from Thursday, Dec. 19 to Monday, Jan. 6. A4A earlier this week said U.S. carriers are prepared to fly more than 2.8 million passengers per day on average, an increase of 6% from last year's holiday period. At 3:06 p.m. EST, January NYMEX WTI futures climbed by $1.20 to $71.22, while February Brent future rose $1.06 to $74.47 bbl. The front-month ULSD futures contract edged up $0.0325 to $2.2691 gallon, while January RBOB for January delivery edged up $0.0114 to $1.9999 gallon.

Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 2% on Friday to settle at a three-week high, on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could boost fuel demand.Brent futures rose $1.08, or 1.5%, to settle at $74.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.27, or 1.8%, to settle at $71.29.That was Brent's highest close since Nov. 22 and put the contract up 5% for the week. WTI posted a 6% gain for the week and closed at its highest since Nov. 7. "This strength is being driven by ... expectations of tighter sanctions against Russia and Iran, more supportive Chinese economic guidance, Mideast political havoc and prospects for a Fed rate cut next week," . European Union ambassadors agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet. The U.S. is considering similar moves. Britain, France and Germany told the United Nations Security Council they were ready if necessary to trigger a so-called "snap back" of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.Chinese data this week showed crude imports in the world's top importer grew annually in November for the first time in seven months. They are set to stay elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 990,000 bpd last month, citing China's stimulus measures.New bank lending in China rose by far less than expected in November, highlighting weak credit demand in the world's second-largest economy as policymakers pledge to roll out more stimulus measures. The IEA forecast an oil surplus for next year, when non-OPEC+ nations are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million bpd, driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S.OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia.The United Arab Emirates, an OPEC member, plans to reduce oil shipments early next year as OPEC+ seeks tighter discipline, according to Bloomberg.The price of crude sold to China from Iran, another OPEC member, rose to the highest in years as U.S. sanctions have tightened shipping capacity and boosted logistics costs. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is expected to ramp up pressure on Iran.Investors are also betting the Fed will cut U.S. rates next week, with further reductions next year, after data showed weekly claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose.U.S. import prices barely rose in November as rising food and fuel costs were largely offset by decreases elsewhere, thanks to a strong dollar.Four European Central Bank policymakers backed further interest rate cuts provided inflation settles at the bank's 2%-goal as expected.Lower interest rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Yemen's Houthis Attack US Destroyers and Merchant Ships in Gulf of Aden - On Tuesday, US Central Command said two US Navy destroyers and three US commercial ships came under an attack launched by Yemen’s Houthis while transiting the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, took credit for the attack, saying they targeted two US destroyers that were accompanying “supply ships.” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the attack “achieved its objectives,” while CENTCOM said the attack was “defeated.”CENTCOM said the destroyers intercepted multiple drones and one cruise missile. “The reckless attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilians, or US Naval,” the command said. The Houthis launched a similar attack about 10 days ago.Sarea also said the Houthis had launched a drone into Israel, which hit abuilding in central Israel. “The operation, conducted with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), struck its target accurately,” Sarea said. The Israeli military said the attack caused some damage but no injuries. The US began bombing Yemen back in January in defense of Houthi attacks on Israeli shipping, which were launched in response to the genocidal war in Gaza. The US bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Houthis and only escalated the situation as the Yemeni group began targeting US shipping as a result.From 2015-2022, the US supported a Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time. According to the UN, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

Al-Golani: US-designated terrorist becomes Syria's liberation leader - Designated by the U.S. as a terrorist and with a $10 million bounty on his head, Abu Mohammed al-Golani has emerged as the leading figure in Syria’s liberation from the decades-long oppressive regime of Bashar Assad. He has quickly placed himself at the forefront of shaping the country’s future, with a past that is raising concerns even as much of Syria celebrates Assad’s fall. Born in Syria in the late 1970s or early 1980s, al-Golani is promoting himself as a pragmatic, political leader and extending assurances for Syria’s multiethnic and religious populations. These promises run in direct contrast to the violence and human rights abuses carried out by the Islamist groups he aligned with in the past, such as ISIS and al Qaeda. “No one has the right to erase another group,” he said in an interview with CNN in the days before taking over Damascus, the seat of Assad’s government. “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them. There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all, not a system that serves only one sect, as Assad’s regime has done.”While the Biden administration has welcomed Assad’s collapse as an historic, landmark event, U.S. officials have not confirmed it is in touch directly with al-Golani or members of the group he leads, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is also designated as a terrorist group. Al-Golani, as head of HTS, broke away from its alignment with al Qaeda, but U.S. officials and analysts are closely watching whether actions line up with the public statements. “We will remain vigilant, make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human right abuses,” President Biden said in remarks from the White House on Sunday. “We’ve taken note of statements by the leaders of these rebel groups in recent days, and they’re saying the right things now. But as they take on greater responsibility we will assess not just their words but their actions.Born Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria, al-Golani’s pseudonym is a reference to his family’s roots on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights — signaling one concern from the U.S. and Israel, whether al-Golani and HTS pose a threat to Israel.Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said HTS and its coalition groups are “much obsessed and inwardly focused” on establishing political rule over Syria. HTS, at the head of a military coalition including opposition forces and Islamist groups, appear to have control over the western half of the country with the main population centers of Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs and access to the Mediterranean Sea. Syrian-Kurdish groups, some backed by the U.S., have control over a smaller part of the country in the east. “Going forward though, the way that governments in Damascus often legitimate themselves — especially when they are unable to deliver for their people — is they do so through the resistance narrative and through attacking Israel,” Tabler said during a video briefing with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.“The question is whether these groups, whether it’s HTS or other Sunni-backed groups, will they resort to this old playbook to get legitimacy and to somehow capitalize on this war with Israel?”Al-Golani, in a victory speech delivered in Damascus’s historic Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, declared a new chapter in the region where the Syrian people are taking ownership of the country. By Monday, he was holding transitional meetings between Assad’s appointed prime minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali, and the prime minister of the self-declared Salvation Government — the governing body of Syria’s northwestern Idlib province that HTS controlled for years. “[Al-Golani’s] got a track record of having a technocratic government that provides minimal services,” said John Hannah, senior fellow with the Jewish Institute for National Security for America and who has served in senior foreign policy positions for both Democratic and Republican administrations. “[HTS] didn’t attack Christians and Druze and other minorities, but didn’t make them part of any democratic government, either, they were clearly second class citizens,” he continued. “But since his descent now into Damascus, all along the road, he’s been issuing proclamations to every single minority population he can find that they need to be — as long as they defect from the regime — that they’ll be protected, their property, governmental institution should be protected.” Al-Golani said he was never personally involved in acts of terrorism. In 2003, he reportedly traveled to Iraq to fight against the U.S. invasion and spent five years in an American-run prison in the country. Returning to Syria in 2011, he founded Jabhat al-Nusrah to serve as an off-shoot to the Islamic State, but later separated from the group, aligned with al Qaeda for a number of years, before declaring independence as HTS in 2016. The U.S. listed him as a specially designated national in 2013, a key sanctions designation; and in 2017, the FBI issued a $10 million reward for information on al-Golani’s whereabouts.

Turkey-backed Islamists attack Kurdish forces after Syria regime’s collapse -- The 13-year imperialist-backed regime-change war against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was supported by Russia and Iran, ended with the collapse of his regime in a matter of days. Now the imperialist states and regional powers, led by the US and its proxies in the country, are calculating how to carve up Syria. Turkey, which controls several provinces in northwestern Syria, has intervened both by directly supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA), the successor to the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), and by backing the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), despite recognising it as a terrorist organisation. On Saturday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not hide his delight as HTS advanced towards Damascus, saying, “Idlib, Hama, Homs, the target is of course Damascus. This march of the opposition continues. We are following it both through intelligence and through the media. Of course we hope that this march in Syria will continue without any accidents.” In the same speech, Erdoğan said, “We had made an appeal to Assad: ‘Let’s meet and determine the future of Syria together.’ Unfortunately, we could not get a positive response from Assad.” He added, “These troubled marches going on in the region as a whole are not what we desire, our hearts do not want this. Unfortunately, the region is in trouble.” These words come from the main regional player in NATO’s war for regime-change in Syria. Erdoğan’s concern is that US-backed Kurdish nationalist forces are one of the main forces in Syria and that the conflict could be revived against the interests of the Turkish ruling class. The jihadist takeover of Damascus and the Israeli offensive in Syria, in the midst of the Zionist regime’s genocide against the Palestinians and its aggression against Iran, have increased this possibility. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Monday: “A new era has begun in Syria. We must now focus on the future. We want to see a Syria where different ethnic and religious groups live in peace with an inclusive understanding of governance. We want to see a new Syria that has good relations with its neighbours and brings peace and stability to its region.” Özgür Özel, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), who on Saturday called for dialogue with Assad, later joined the chorus: “We call on all friends of Syria to support the establishment of a transitional government representative of all Syrians, followed by a democratic regime based on human rights and the rule of law, in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Libya,” Özel wrote on X. These statements are full of hypocrisy. The Turkish government and ruling class, together with its imperialist allies in NATO, are among the leading perpetrators of the war for regime-change in Syria, which has led to the death of hundreds of thousands, the displacement of millions and the destruction of the country’s infrastructure. The main determinant of Turkey’s recent Syria policy has been to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state on its southern border and the encouragement of separatist sentiment among the large Kurdish population inside Turkey itself. However, regime-change and expansionist ambitions have never been abandoned.

Report: US Gave Kurds an Ultimatum To Withdraw from Manbij in North Syria - The US had to give the Kurdish-led SDF an ultimatum to withdraw from the northern Syrian city of Manbij and cede it to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Al-Monitor reported on Wednesday.According to the report, the US brokered a ceasefire deal between the SDF and the SNA that involved the Kurds withdrawing to areas east of the Euphrates River. The SDF was violating the agreement by maintaining a hold on Manbij and was encircled by SNA fighters who were backed by Turkish air power. SNA fighters were also advancing east of the Euphrates.The report said US officials were “exasperated” by the SDF’s refusal to head to the east of the river. The US threatened that the US military would no longer protect the SDF if it didn’t comply, prompting the Kurdish force to withdraw and cede the city to the SNA, which is mainly comprised of Sunni Muslim groups.A US official said that during the battle on Monday, the SDF shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone after mistaking it for a Turkish drone.Turkey has stepped up strikes on the US-backed Kurds in northern Syria following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Ankara played a key role in the regime change as it reportedly gave the green light for the offensive launched by the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has taken Damascus.Secretary of State Antony Blinken is headed to Ankara on Friday as the US is looking to limit the Turkish-backed offensive against the Kurds. The US has about 900 troops occupying Kurdish-controlled areas of eastern Syria, which have provided support to the SDF in recent fighting against the now-deposed government.Turkey has always been unhappy about the US support for the SDF since it considers the group a wing of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group both Turkey and the US have labeled a terrorist organization. James Jeffrey, who served as a US special envoy to Syria, acknowledged the SDF was the Syrian wing of the PKK in an interview with PBS in 2018.

In Damascus, Julani Declares 'Mujahideen' Victorious Against Assad - Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leader of the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, delivered a victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, declaring the success of the “mujahideen” against former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has reportedly fled to Moscow.“Today, Syria is purified, thanks to God almighty,” Julani said. “Thanks to God almighty, then thanks to the heroic mujahideen.”Julani criticized Assad, whose family ruled Syria for more than 50 years, saying he had let the country become a haven “for Iranian greed.”HTS began its lightning offensive on November 27 from the northwestern Idlib province, which it has controlled since 2017. HTS and its allies quickly seized Aleppo, Hama, and then Damascus.Julani was formerly the leader of al-Nusra Front, which was the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In 2016, Julani rebranded, claiming to cut ties with al-Qaeda, and changed his group’s name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which merged with other Islamist groups to form HTS in 2017.The US has long sought the overthrow of Assad, and despite HTS’s links with al-Qaeda, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US wouldn’t “cry” about the pressure Syria and its allies were facing from the militant group’s offensive. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali, who stayed in the country,said he was willing to “cooperate” with whoever Syrians choose as their leader. “This country can be a normal country that builds good relations with its neighbors and the world,” Jalali said, according to The New Arab. “But this issue is up to any leadership chosen by the Syrian people. We are ready to cooperate with it (that leadership) and offer all possible facilities.”

Israel Says It Launched 480 Strikes in Syria Since Fall of Assad - The Israeli military said Tuesday that it launched 480 strikes in Syria over 48 hours following the overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which Israeli media said marked the heaviest Israeli bombing of Syria in history.The IDF said it struck “most of the strategic weapons stockpiles in Syria” and estimated it destroyed between 70% to 80% of the former government’s weapons. Israeli strikes hit targets across Syria, including the port of Latakia, which destroyed naval vessels. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli bombing campaign “destroyed the most important military sites in Syria, including Syrian airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates.”Israel has also seized territory inside Syria, a buffer zone separating the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria, and several areas beyond the zone. Sources told Reuters Israeli forces advanced 10 kilometers into Syrian territory and were only 25 kilometers away from Damascus.Israeli sources denied that Israeli troops advanced that far into Syria but also announced they were creating a “sterile defense zone” in southern Syria, framing the occupation as temporary. The US has backed Israel’s land grab in Syria, also claiming it was a defensive move.“Together with the prime minister, I have instructed the [military] to establish a sterile defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria, without a permanent Israeli presence,” said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday claimed Israel doesn’t seek to interfere in Syria’s “internal affairs” despite the massive bombing campaign and land grab. He also threatened that Israel would take more action if the new government aligned with Iran.“If the new regime in Syria allows Iran to re-establish itself, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu Takes Credit for Assad's Overthrow, Israel Seizes Golan Heights 'Buffer Zone' -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday celebrated the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by al-Qaeda-linked militants and confirmed that Israel has seized a buffer zone inside Syria that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria’s territory.“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Golan Heights. “The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen.”Netanyahu credited Israel with setting off the process that led to the downfall of Assad. In the months leading up to the offensive launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Israel was waging a war against Hezbollah and ramped up airstrikes in Syria.“This is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime,” Netanyahu said. “This has created a chain reaction throughout the Middle East of all those who want to be free from this oppressive and tyrannical regime.”Map showing the buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria. The Israeli leader also said he directed the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to capture the buffer zone inSyria. “Together with the Defense Minister, and with full backing from the Cabinet, I directed the IDF yesterday to take control of the buffer zone and the dominant positions near it,” he said. “We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”The buffer zone Israel has seized has been patrolled by a UN peacekeeping force, known as UNDOF, since 1974. Netanyahu declared that the agreement establishing the buffer zone and UNDOF has now “collapsed.”The New York Times later reported that Israeli troops had entered Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone and took control of several locations. Israel also pounded Syria with airstrikes on Sunday, targeting dozens of military and government sites. Israeli officials said the purpose of the attacks was to prevent weapons from ending up in the hands of hostile forces.There are signs that Israel had been planning to make a move on the buffer zone before the Assad government collapsed. The Associated Pressreported that Israel began construction along the buffer zone, citing satellite images. After the report, UNDOF warned that Israel was committing “severe” violations of the deal with Syria that established the buffer zone. Netanyahu Says Occupied Golan Heights Will Be Israel's 'Forever' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights will be Israel’s “forever” comments that came a day after Israel captured territory inside Syria. Israel first took the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed the territory in 1981, a move not recognized by any other country until the Trump administration did so in 2019. “I would like to take this opportunity to thank my friend, President-elect Donald Trump for acceding to my request to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, in 2019,” Netanyahu said at a press conference on Monday, according to his office.“Today, everyone understands the great importance of our presence there on the Golan, and not on the foothills of the Golan,” Netanyahu said. “The Golan Heights will forever be an inseparable part of the State of Israel,” the premier added.A day earlier, Netanyahu was in the Golan Heights and announced that he ordered the Israeli military to seize a buffer zone between the occupied Israeli territory and the rest of Syria that’s been patrolled by UN peacekeepers since 1974 under an Israel-Syria ceasefire deal.According to Israeli media, Israeli troops also captured several areas inside Syria that are beyond the buffer zone, including the Syrian side of the Mount Hermon mountain range. The land grab also came with massive Israeli airstrikes across Syria, which Israeli officials framed as being necessary to prevent hostile groups from acquiring weapons left behind by the now-deposed Syrian government.According to The Cradle, Israeli strikes since Sunday hit 250 targets across Syria, hitting military bases, air defenses, ammo depots, warehouses, and other military assets. Israeli media reported it as the heaviest Israeli bombing in the country since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Report: Israel Sees Opportunity To Bomb Iran After Downfall of Assad -The Israeli military believes there is now an opportunity to bomb Iran due to the weakening of its allies in the region following the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, The Times of Israel reported on Thursday.Israeli military officials said in the wake of the regime change in Syria, the Israeli Air Force has increased its preparations for a potential attack on Iran.The Times report said the IDF is considering launching strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. While Israeli officials are constantly claiming Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, there is no evidence that’s the case, a fact recently acknowledged by the CIA.In the wake of Assad’s ouster, Israel launched a massive bombing campaign in Syria, launching 480 strikes in just 48 hours. The Israeli military said it decimated the former government’s military assets, destroying about 80% of the equipment that was left behind.Israeli officials now say they have total air superiority over Syria due to the lack of air defenses, which could make it easier to launch airstrikes on Iran. Israeli warplanes used to have to avoid air defenses when bombing Syria, but now Israeli officials say they’re able to fly over Damascus without having to worry about getting shot down by Russian-made air defenses.Israel last bombed Iran in October, attacks that damaged some air defenses and killed four Iranian soldiers and one civilian. Iranian officials vowed a response to the attack, but nothing has happened so far. Israel launched the strikes on Iran in response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel that was retaliation for a string of Israeli escalations in the region.

Netanyahu Hilariously Claims Israel Doesn't Seek To Intervene In Syria's Affairs - Caitlin Johnstone - Benjamin Netanyahu is hilariously saying that Israel has “no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs.” Only Israel could invade and occupy large stretches of a country, bomb it 480 times in 48 hours, destroy 80 percent of its military defenses, and then claim that it has no intention of interfering in that country’s internal affairs. Western regime change cheerleaders are partying about Syria as hard as they can right now because they know soon they’re going to have to turn a blind eye to everything that happens in that country for years to come, just like they did with Libya.The new people in charge in Syria have announced that they’re going to be opening up the nation’s markets and integrating into the global economy, which is one of the least surprising developments in this story so far. This is textbook disaster capitalism which we see in every major imperial power grab on a disobedient nation. Syria is now set to be picked apart and cannibalized by the highest bidder. Looks like meat’s back on the menu, boys.

Kremlin: Armed Groups Have Guaranteed the Security of Russian Bases in Syria - A source in the Kremlin has told Russian media that militants who have overthrown Bashar al-Assad have guaranteed the security of Russian military bases in the country.“Russian officials are in touch with representatives of armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the Syrian territory,” a Kremlin source told TASS.Militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, launched an offensive in Syria against Russia’s ally, Assad, on November 27 and quickly took over the capital, Damascus. The Kremlin source also told TASSthat Assad has fled to Moscow for asylum.“Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow. Russia has granted asylum to them proceeding from humanitarian considerations,” the source said.Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Assad had decided to flee Syria. “Following his talks with a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.The ministry insisted Russia was not involved in the talks but said it was in contact with the opposition. “The Russian Federation maintains contact with all Syrian opposition groups,” the ministry said.

End of Assad Regime Raises Risks of Syrian Fuel Shortages - The fall of the Assad regime in Syria after Bashar al-Assad fled the country and ended his 24-year tenure as president might engender a widespread fuel shortage across the Middle Eastern country.

• - The Syrian port of Baniyas was dependent on Iranian fuel supplies and the approximately 60,000 b/d of oil that Tehran was sending to Syria kept the country’s two existing refineries operational.
• - As representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rose to prominence in Syria, Iranian crude tankers en route to Syria made a U-turn, with the Lotus tanker carrying more than 1 million barrels stopping right in front of the Suez Canal.
• - Syria’s own production is mostly centred in Kurdish-populated areas, averaging around 80,000 b/d in recent months, with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan being the only viable suppliers of crude and products to Syria, now that Iran has been sidelined.
• Developing Nations Turns to Fuel Oil as LNG Prices Just Won’t Fall
• - High LNG prices are compelling natural gas buyers to reconsider their trading strategies and opt for cheaper equivalents, with Egypt’s recent U-turn away from LNG import tenders to fuel oil being a notable case in point.
• - Egypt’s imports of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) reached an all-time high of 255,000 b/d in September, however since then lower cooling demand and ample LNG supply have seen HSFO demand weaken.

Report: Ukraine Sent Drones and Drone Operators to HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad - Ukrainian intelligence had provided Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda, with drone support weeks before the group launched the offensive in Syria that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.“Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago,” wrote Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.While the US has celebrated Assad’s downfall, HTS is still listed by the US as a foreign terrorist organization, and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has a $10 million US bounty on his head. That means Ukraine has supplied weapons and intelligence support to a group the US considers a terrorist organization.Ukrainian and Russian reports have also reported that a special unit of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (abbreviated GUR or HUR) had provided support to HTS and was involved in some attacks on Russian bases in Syria.“Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present… training HTS fighters for combat operations,” Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia said at the UN after the HTS offensive started.The GUR has received significant support from the US over the years. The Washington Post reported last year that the CIA helped build up the GUR and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) following the 2014 coup that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. “GUR was our little baby. We gave them all new equipment and training,” a former US intelligence official who worked in Ukraine told the Post. The GUR has also been involved in fighting Russia’s Wagner mercenary force in Africa. In Mali, the GUR provided support for a July ambush that killed 84 Wagner operatives and 47 Malians.“The rebels received the necessary information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals,” GUR official Andriy Yusov said of the attack. The rebel coalition that launched the attack in Mali included Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin, an affiliate of al-Qaeda.

Taiwan Says Its Tracking Chinese Warships After Taiwanese President Visited US - Taiwan said on Tuesday that mainland China deployed a large number of warships and planes around the island following Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te’s visits to the US. According to The South China Morning Post, Taiwan has monitored the most significant Chinese military activity in the area since Chinaconducted a blockade drill around the island in October, which was a response to a speech from Lai.Taiwanese officials also said China had deployed a total of 90 naval and coast guard vessels stretching from the South China Sea to southern Japanese islands. The deployment is seen as an effort by China to show that it could not only blockade Taiwan but also impede the US and its allies in the region from intervening in any potential conflict.China typically announces when it conducts major military drills, but it has so far been silent on the current activity.When asked during a press briefing on Tuesday if China was conducting military exercises around Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, “I’d refer you to competent Chinese authorities for the specific question. What I can tell you is that the Taiwan question is China’s internal affair, and China will firmly defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Lukashenko Says Belarus Is Hosting Dozens of Russian Nuclear Weapons - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Belarus is hosting dozens of Russian nuclear weapons and is preparing to receive Russia’s new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, known as the Oreshnik.“I have deployed nuclear warheads here. Several dozen warheads. Many say that this is a joke and no one has deployed anything. Yes, we did,” Lukashenko said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.“And the fact that they say that this is a joke means that they have missed it. They overlooked how we brought them here,” Lukashenko added, suggesting he believes Western intelligence agencies didn’t track the deployment. Russian President Vladimir Putin first announced in 2023 that he would deploy nuclear weapons, a move he said was in response to Western provocations. He has compared the deployment to NATO’s nuclear sharing program, under which US nuclear warheads are deployed in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, and Turkey. Belarus has received nuclear-capable Iskander missiles, and the Russian military helped upgrade Belarusian fighter jets so they could carry nuclear warheads.Lukashenko is now asking for Russia to deploy the Oreshnik missile to Belarus and said there are about 30 locations where they could be stationed. “We are currently thinking about where to deploy this weapon. We have some sites where strategic nuclear weapons used to be deployed,” he said. Putin has said a conventionally armed Oreshnik could make nuclear weapons unnecessary since it can carry such a large payload and fire multiple warheads.

Ukraine Fires More US ATACMS Into Russia, Moscow Vows Response - The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had launched another attack on Russian territory with US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles.Russia’s TASS news agency reported that Ukraine “delivered a strike by six US-made ATACMS long-range ballistic missiles at the military airfield in Taganrog in southern Russia on the morning of December 11.” The report said two missiles were intercepted by air defenses, and the other four were deflected by electronic warfare.The Russian Defense Ministry said shrapnel from the missiles caused injuries. “There are injuries among the personnel as a result of the fall of missile fragments. There is no destruction while minor damage (shrapnel damage) was caused to two buildings on the airfield’s technical premises, three military motor vehicles and also civilian cars on a parking lot adjacent to the airfield,” the ministry said.The ministry also vowed there would be a response. “This attack by Western long-range weapons won’t be left unanswered, and corresponding measures will be taken,” it said. Last month, President Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russian territory despite Moscow making clear the step would risk nuclear escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin formally changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine in response, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. In response to previous ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes in Russia, the Russian military launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine known as the Oreshnik. The missile was believed not to be carrying explosives since little damage was done, and Putin referred to it as a “test launch.” A strike with a conventionally armed Oreshnik could do major damage, as Putin has suggested the missile could replace nuclear weapons as Russia’s deterrent.