Focus on Fracking: August 2025

US oil prices finished lower for a fourth time in five weeks on forecasts for increasing supply and for lower prices, as traders awaited the outcome of the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska….after falling 5.1% to $63.88 a barrel last week after OPEC agreed to a larger than expected production increase and as Trump agreed to meet with Putin in Alaska, defusing the geopolitical tensions which had been supporting higher prices, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for September delivery traded lower in Asia on Monday morning as markets grew optimistic that a proposed meeting between the US and Russian presidents could lead to a peace deal in Russia-Ukraine conflict, then fell further in London trading, as traders weighed the potential impact of planned diplomatic talks between Washington and Moscow later this week on the war in Ukraine, then steadied Monday morning in New York. as traders geared up for a macro-data heavy week ending with the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin on Friday, and settled 8 cents higher at $63.96 a barrel as traders considered the prospect of tighter penalties on Moscow if a peace deal was not reached….oil prices moved little in Asian trading on Tuesday, with the focus squarely on upcoming U.S.-Russia talks that could herald an end to the Ukraine war, then rose slightly after US President Trump signed an executive order delaying increased tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, while uncertainty over Washington-Moscow talks and concerns about persistent US inflation capped further gains, but softened and moved lower as the market seemed to have largely expected a tariff hike postponement, as sentiment was less affected by the announcement than by the day's U.S. inflation report showing sticky core inflation, which could lower rate cut odds, and settled 79 cents lower at $63.17 a barrel as traders awaited the weekly inventory report for signs of declining demand at the end of the summer driving season….oil prices dipped on global markets on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its supply forecast, then hovered near an 11 week low in early US trading after the EIA reported a surprise increase in US crude production and inventories, and settled 52 cents lower at $62.65 a barrel after bearish supply guidance from the U.S. government and from the International Energy Agency, while traders eyed Trump's threat of "severe consequences" if Putin blocked peace in Ukraine…oil prices rose about 1% on global markets Thursday, reacting to Trumps warning of "severe consequences" if his talks with Russian President Putin on Ukraine failed, and on expectations that a U.S. interest rate cut next month could spur oil demand. but steadied near 10 week lows in early New York trading, following the International Energy Agency’s forecast of an even larger oil glut by the end of the year, then mounted an afternoon rally to settle $1.31 or 2.1% higher at $63.96 a barrel on Trump’s threatening rhetoric and on optimism that a likely U.S. interest rate cut in September could spur oil demand…..oil prices slipped half a percent across global markets on Friday, as markets focused on the day's meeting in Alaska between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, then fell by more than 1% in early US trading, as the market struggled to anticipate what the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting would be, and settled $1.16 or 1.8% lower at $92.80 a barrel as traders awaited the talks between Trump and Putin, leaving oil prices 1.7% lower for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the seventh time in eight weeks on near record output, above normal supplies, and the apparent end to record hot weather for the season…after falling 3.0% to $2.990 per mmBTU last week on near record gas production in the face of ample supplies, and on forecasts for milder weather heading into September contract month, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for September delivery opened 0.7 cents lower on Monday and trended lower through the session amidst multiple bearish factors and forecasts that had reduced expected cooling demand, and settled 3.6 cents lower at $2.954 per mmBTU on near-record output, ample supplies, and forecasts for less hot weather than had been expected…the September gas contract opened 6.8 cents lower on Tuesday, and trended decidedly lower throughout the day, as production remained steady and cooling demand was expected to decline for the back half of August, and settled down 14.6 cents at an eight month low of $2.808 per mmBTU, as cooling demand was expected to make a step-change lower into the last third of August to bring forward the end of summer - and push back any meaningful declines in the storage surplus….natural gas prices opened 2.2 cents higher on Wednesday, as traders found value in the recently diminished contract, and traded in a narrow range before settling 2.0 cents higher at $2.828 per mmBTU, as hotter September forecasts gave bulls new life…natural gas opened lower Thursday, but traded near $2.835 leading up to the weekly storage publication, then briefly fell to the intraday low of $2.780 as the report fell in line with expectations, the before recovering to tally the intraday high of $2.848 at 11:25 AM, and to later settle 1.3 cents higher at $2.841 per mmBTU on forecasts for higher demand during the next two weeks than had been expected, and on the return to near full service of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas….natural gas futures climbed through midday Friday, as traders viewed the earlier losses as overdone amid lingering heat and the possibility of another warm spell before cooler fall weather sets in, and settled 7.5 cents higher at $2.916 per mmBTU as lower production estimates spurred short sellers to exit positions ahead of the weekend, but still left natural gas prices 2.5% lower for the week

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending August 8th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 56 cubic feet to 3,186 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 79 billion cubic feet, or 2.4% less than the 3,265 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on August 8th of last year, but 196 billion cubic feet, or 6.6% more than the five-year average of 2,990 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 8th of August over the most recent five years….the 56 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was a little less than the 60 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, but way more than the 8 billion cubic foot of gas that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, as well as well more than the average 25 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early August week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending August 8th indicated that after a big increase in our oil imports, we had surplus oil to add to our stored crude supplies for the fifteenth time in twenty-seven weeks, and for the 32nd time in fifty-seven weeks, while an increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for was also minor factor….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 958,000 barrels per day to average 6,920,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 174,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 259,000 barrels per day to average 3,577,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 3,343,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending August 8th, an average of 699,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 492,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 43,000 barrels per day higher than the prior week at 13,327,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,162,000 barrels per day during the August 8th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 17,180,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 8th, an average of 56,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 466,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending August 8th averaged a rounded 484,000 fewer barrels per day than what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +484,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 466,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 434,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 32,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending the nearly continuous additions to the SPR since September 2023, which followed nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to August 2023… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicated that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,249,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 5.1% less than the 6,584,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 43,000 barrels per day lower at 13,327,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 30,000 barrels per day higher at 13,009,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 13,000 barrels per day higher at 318,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 1.7% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also up 37.4% from the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 96.4% of their capacity while processing those 17,180,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending August 8th, down from the 96.9% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still the second highest refinery utilization rate since August 2, 2019…. the 17,180,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 4.3% more than the 16,467,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending August 9th of 2024, but were 0.7% less than the 17,302,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending August 9th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 94.8%, which was within the pre-pandemic normal range for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was a bit higher, increasing by 10,000 barrels per day to 9,813,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 8th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 239,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was also 0.9% more than the 9,722,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending August 9th of last year, but 3.8% less than the gasoline production of 10,203,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending August 9th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 32,000 barrels per day to 5,137,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 104,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production increase, our distillates output was 7.7% more than the 4,769,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending August 9th of 2024, and 0.1% more than the 5,077,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending August 9th, 2019…

With this week’s inconsequential increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the seventeenth time in twenty-four weeks, decreasing by 792,000 barrels to 226,290,000 barrels during the week ending August 8th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,323,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies decreased by less this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 9,000,000 barrels per day because our exports of gasoline fell by 121,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 97,000 barrels per day to 632,000 barrels per day ….Even after nineteen gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past twenty-seven weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.8% above last August 9th’s gasoline inventories of 222,203,000 barrels, and were just about at the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the modest increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 14th time in 32 weeks, increasing by 714,000 barrels to 113,685,000 barrels during the week ending August 8th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 565,000 during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies increased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 19,000 to 3,701,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 104,000 barrels per to 1,441,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 28,000 barrels per day to 107,000 barrels per day... With 47 withdrawals from inventories over the past 80 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 9.9% below the 126,123,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on August 9th of 2024, and about 15% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the big increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 29th time over the past year, increasing by 3.036,000 barrels over the week, from 423,662,000 barrels on August 1st to 426,698,000 barrels on August 8th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 3,029,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after that increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were 6% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 26% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of August over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this August 8th were 0.9% below the 430,678,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on August 9th of 2024, and 2.9% less than the 439,662,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on August 11th of 2023, but were 0.4% more than the 424,954,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on August 12th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count was unchanged over the week ending August 15th, as rigs targeting oil increased by one, while rigs targeting natural gas decreased by one…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of August 15th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (August 8th) and this week’s (August 15th) count, the third column shows last week’s August 8th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 16th of August, 2024…

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New Democratic bill would ban drilling under Ohio state parks and Lake Erie --Ohio Democratic lawmakers want to prevent oil and natural gas drilling under Lake Erie and state parks. State Reps. Tristan Rader, D-Lakewood, and Christine Cockley, D-Columbus, recently introduced Ohio House Bill 399. The bill would prohibit the director of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources from issuing a permit that would remove oil or natural gas from under a state park or Lake Erie. “Protecting our environment is just a critically important thing,” Rader said. “I think protecting our public lands, conserving the space we’ve already decided should be conserved, is actually a pretty salient idea.”Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed a bill into law in 2023 that allowed fracking for natural gas in Ohio’s public lands and state parks. Since then, fracking has begun in Salt Fork State Park, the state’s largest state park. “I think the natural progression of where we’re headed next is drilling in state parks,” Rader said. “So my goal is to try to stop that at all costs. Let’s actually do what we set out to do, and preserve these lands, instead of extracting from them, farming them, destroying these habitats.”There have been approximately 2,000 incidents associated with oil and gas wells in Ohio over the past eight years, according to FracTracker Alliance — a nonprofit that collects data on fracking pipelines. Ohio has 76 state parks that are managed by ODNR. “Our state park network is just so phenomenal,” Rader said. “We own a lot of lands as a state that’s conserved for various reasons.”Federal law prohibits drilling in the Great Lakes and Rader said he thinks it’s important to “have some state protections to layer on top of some of these federal protections.” “I think redundancy, right now, when it comes to federal law is incredibly important, especially when you see an administration that is absolutely gung ho and drilling in all places, and doesn’t seem to really respect federal law very directly, and is willing to either go to court or ignore courts,” Rader said. Ohio Oil and Gas Association President Rob Brundrett said he is unaware of interest in drilling under Lake Erie. “We have not seen much interest from our members over the years to explore Lake Erie,” he said. “However, we do believe there could be a potential benefit in the exploration and production from the Great Lakes.”Drilling in Lake Erie could pose risks to the drinking water and wildlife, including millions of walleye, Rader said. “Oil wells, oil drilling, (and) oil pipelines have a high risk of adding all kinds of toxins, whether it’s from the brines they use or spills that happen all too often,” he said. “I want to try my best as a human being to leave this planet better than where I found it, and part of that is keeping our lakes and streams and green spaces free of pollution.”This is not the first time a bill like this has been introduced. Former Democratic state Rep. Mike Skindell introduced a similar bill in 2023 during the last General Assembly that would have prevented fracking under Lake Erie, but the bill only received sponsor testimony. Rader is hopeful his bill will get a couple of hearings and maybe a vote, but as a Democratic bill in a Republican-controlled Statehouse, the cards are stacked against H.B. 399.

Hope Utilities to Build Ohio Gas Pipeline for Data Center Project (P&GJ) — Hope Utilities will construct a natural gas pipeline in central Ohio to supply a fuel cell project being developed by American Electric Power for a new data center, the company said on Aug. 14. The work will be handled by its local subsidiary, Northeast Ohio Natural Gas Corporation (NEO), which will build, operate, and maintain the pipeline and related facilities. “Hope Utilities is proud to be a natural gas partner on this project with AEP, one of the nation’s largest electric providers,” said Morgan O’Brien, Hope Utilities CEO. “Energy and power are key components for economic development and growth opportunities. Data center developers will build these facilities in locations that have the reliable and affordable energy resources they need. Hope Utilities and NEO are ready to deliver the natural gas expertise, infrastructure and resources necessary to move these important projects forward.” The pipeline, which will connect with interstate pipelines, is scheduled to be in service by October 2026. Once completed, it will have the capacity to exceed the project’s fuel requirements. “Ohio is poised to benefit from investments to support data centers,” O’Brien said. “Data center investments will significantly enhance the economic trajectory of Ohio and the region. Hope is committed to adding to those investments through infrastructure upgrades and other community investments. This pipeline investment is just the start of Hope Utilities and NEO’s support of these projects to provide meaningful economic development opportunities throughout Ohio.”

Ohio Justices Bless $2 Billion Increase of <b>Pipeline's Tax Value - Bloomberg Law News -A natural gas pipeline partially owned by Energy Transfer Partners LP and the Blackstone Group has a much higher tax value than Ohio originally assigned it, the state high court affirmed Wednesday. The Ohio Board of Tax Appeals was right to adopt the $5.67 billion valuation of Rover Pipeline LLC's 713-mile conduit put forth at trial by the ...

Rover Pipeline, L.L.C. v. Harris - Supreme Court of Ohio -- Under Ohio law, the taxable property of a public utility shall be assessed at its true value in money. See R.C. 5727.10. At issue in this appeal is the true value for tax year 2019 of an interstate natural-gas pipeline owned and operated by appellant, Rover Pipeline, L.L.C. The Board of Tax Appeals (“board” or “BTA”) rejected the report proposed by Rover’s appraiser, finding that the value proposed by appellee Tax Commissioner Patricia Harris’s appraiser reflected the best evidence of the pipeline’s value. Rover appealed the board’s decision to this court. Rover’s challenge is multifaceted, but the crux of its argument is that the board vastly overvalued the pipeline. Because Rover has not shown that the board committed reversible error, we affirm.

Rover Pipeline Loses Ohio Supreme Court Decision to Lower Tax Bill -Marcellus Drilling News -- Rover Pipeline, a 713-mile natural gas pipeline, was designed to carry up to 3.25 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of Marcellus and Utica gas from Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio to destinations in Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia, and Canada. The project was completed and came online in late 2018 (see FERC OKs Final 2 Rover Pipeline Laterals – Now 100% Online). Rover’s original estimated cost to build the project was $4.08 billion. It ultimately cost $6.3 billion, as historically high rainfall led to additional unforeseen expenses, delays, and inspections. Most of the pipeline runs through Ohio, which assesses a property tax on such projects. Rover and Ohio disagree over the value to be assigned to the pipeline for annual taxation purposes. After several appeals, the case headed to the Ohio Supreme Court in May (see Rover Pipeline Heads to Ohio Supreme Court to Lower Tax Assessment). The Supremes issued their ruling yesterday, and it didn’t go Rover’s way.

Ohio Property Tax Valuation of Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Set at Nearly $3.67 Billion - The Supreme Court of Ohio today affirmed a Board of Tax Appeals (BTA) decision determining the taxable value of the portion of the natural gas Rover Pipeline that passes through Ohio to be $3.669 billion for the 2019 tax year. The pipeline cost $6.3 billion to construct and is over 700 miles long, running through portions of eastern Ohio to a location in Defiance County in northwest Ohio before going on to markets across the United States and Canada. The BTA rejected the pipeline company’s claim that the taxable value of the pipeline is only about half as much as the tax commissioner's valuation of $3.669 billion. The Supreme Court unanimously upheld the BTA’s decision. Writing for the Court, Justice Patrick F. Fischer characterized the dispute as a “battle of appraisals,” a type of case in which the BTA must review competing appraisal evidence. He explained that when assessing competing appraisals to determine tax values, the “BTA is vested with wide discretion in determining the weight to be given to the evidence and the credibility of the witnesses that come before it.” The BTA ruled that Ohio Tax Commissioner Patricia Harris submitted the best evidence of the pipeline’s taxable value as presented by appraiser Brent Eyre. The opinion stated that unless the record indicates the board’s decision was unreasonable or unlawful, the Court will not disturb it. Justice Fischer wrote that Rover had not shown the board had committed an error that justified overturning the BTA’s decision. Click to Expand Delays Increased Construction Cost Rover sought Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approval to construct a pipeline. The company estimated it would cost $4.2 billion to build. FERC approved the application in February 2017. Rover completed the pipeline in November 2018, but the actual cost of construction was $6.3 billion. Abnormally high rainfall caused construction delays and increased costs. While the project area historically received about 37 inches of rain annually, during construction, the area received more than 61 inches of rain, annualized. The company also encountered an environmental problem that delayed construction and added costs. A Rover contractor released two million gallons of drilling fluid while drilling underneath the Tuscarawas River. The fluid surfaced in wetlands near the river. FERC halted some drilling activities. Regulatory actions by FERC and the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency stalled construction for four to five months. State Assessed Newly Operating Pipeline With the pipeline starting operation in late 2018, the Ohio tax commissioner began assessing taxes for the Rover property for the 2019 tax year. Under R.C. 5727.111(D), the taxable property of a pipeline is assessed at 88% of its true value. The tax commissioner’s review culminated in valuing the Ohio portion of the pipeline at $3.983 billion. Rover proposed that the commissioner use an alternative method to value the property and sought to lower the value based on the delays caused by weather and regulatory actions. The commissioner rejected the proposal, and Rover appealed to the BTA. At the BTA, Rover presented an appraisal by Robert Reilly. He concluded the taxable value of the Ohio portion of the pipeline is $1.792 billion. The tax commissioner declined to present evidence using the appraisal method that resulted in her original valuation of $3.983 billion. Instead, she submitted Eyre’s report. Eyre used an appraisal method similar to Reilly’s but came to a different conclusion. He determined the taxable value to be $3.669 billion. Reilly’s value of the entire 700-mile pipeline was about $3.3 billion, while Eyre concluded the value of the whole pipeline was $5.67 billion. Pipeline Investment Factored Into BTA Decision The tax commissioner also presented a report by Bradford Cornell, who addressed the effects of the investment firm Blackstone's acquisition of an ownership interest in the pipeline. In 2017, Blackstone acquired a stake in ET Rover Pipeline, L.L.C., owner of about two-thirds of Rover. Blackstone paid $1.51 billion for a 32.435% indirect ownership interest in Rover. Cornell estimated the overall pipeline’s value to be $4.66 billion. He described it as the “floor value.” He further concluded the pipeline’s value was probably no more than “around $5 billion.” The board issued a lengthy decision, finding that Eyre’s appraisal was the best evidence of the value. It remanded the matter to the tax commissioner to assess the pipeline based on Eyre’s appraisal. The board noted the Blackstone transaction and the actual construction costs, clarifying that while the information was not “conclusive,” it established “guideposts” for a decision. The board was highly critical of Reilly’s appraisal. It reasoned that if Reilly’s $3.3 billion valuation was correct, then Blackstone substantially overpaid for its interest, which the board found implausible because of Blackstone’s dealmaking sophistication. Justice Fischer wrote the Court must affirm a BTA decision that is reasonable and lawful. He noted that Rover took issue with several aspects of the BTA’s ruling, including the board’s acceptance of Eyre’s appraisal. The BTA faulted Eyre for some of his analysis. Rover argued this was grounds for remanding the case to the BTA to independently determine the tax value. “By Rover’s logic, Eyre apparently had to render a perfect appraisal to justify the board’s adoption of his appraised value. But this court has not held the board to so high a standard,” the opinion stated. The Court noted that given the complexities of the case, “it is hardly surprising that the board was able to identify blemishes on Eyre’s appraisal.” But finding some issues is not evidence that the board was mistaken in adopting Eyre’s valuation, because “analytical perfection” is not required, the opinion stated. The Court rejected Rover’s request to remand the case.

Utica Oil: Ascent Resources Sticking to D&C Pace at Sub-$70 WTI -- Utica Shale oil and gas operator Ascent Resources isn’t backing off its oil-directed drilling and completions (D&C) program despite sub-$70 oil prices.“It would have to be oil prices perhaps with a $50 handle that would make us make a meaningful shift,” Jeff Fisher, chairman and CEO, told investors and public debt-holders in an earnings call.While privately held, Ascent Resources hosts public earnings calls.It reported in May that it is considering an IPO, but an update wasn’t provided in the latest call.Ascent, Ohio’s No. 2 oil producer, holds 378,500 net acres in Ohio, including 81,000 mineral acres, across all four of the Utica’s phases: black oil, volatile oil, wet gas and dry gas. The leasehold is 88% HBP or by minerals.Its three rigs are generally targeting the volatile oil, wet gas and dry gas windows. It has one frac spread at work full-time and another spread on standby as needed. New-well spuds this year are expected to total between 50 and 55.“The ups and downs of the market just kind of reinforce our general strategy that we want diversity, but we're not going to chase price,” Fisher said.One rig was moved earlier this year from the wet-gas window to the dry-gas phase, “but we're not making big adjustments.”Second-quarter production averaged 2 Bcfe/d, 85% gas; the balance, oil and NGL, consisted of some 50,000 bbl/d.The commodity mix means that asset-wide returns, while oil is in the mid-$60s, are generally unchanged.“That takes some volatility out of our business and we've just got great returns across the play,” Fisher said.Brooks Shughart, CFO, noted that Ascent has 75% of its oil hedged at more than $70.Also, NGL prices are more than $6.50 per MMBtu, according to the Energy Information Administration.“NGLs have remained relatively strong compared to oil,” Fisher said. “So that's a window that we've been hitting pretty hard and just making some fantastic wells.”Ascent produced 29,000 bbl/d of Utica oil in the first-quarter. The state is expected to publish second-quarter production later this month. EOG Resources, which was Ohio’s No. 3 oil producer, bought the No. 1 producer, Encino Energy, for $5.6 billion in cash Aug. 1. Their combined first-quarter production was 73,500 bbl/d.

Ascent 2Q Drilled 18 Wells, Produced 2 Bcfe/d, Made $467M Profit Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its first quarter 2025 update yesterday. Net production for the quarter averaged 2,034 MMcfe/d (2.0 Bcfe/d), consisting of 1,738 MMcf/d of natural gas, 13,033 bbls/d of oil, and 36,385 bbls/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs), putting liquids at 15% of the overall production mix for the quarter.

EOG Closes on $5.6B Purchase of Encino Assets in Ohio Utica - Marcellus Drilling News --EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in several other countries) announced at the end of May it had made a deal to buy Encino Energy and Encino's massive Ohio Utica Shale assets for $5.6 billion (see HUGE Utica News: EOG Resources Buys Encino Energy for $5.6 Billion). Last Friday, EOG issued its second quarter update. As part of the update, the company announced it had closed on the Encino acquisition on August 1st and is now working to integrate the two companies. The newly combined EOG/Encino plans to run five rigs and three completion crews in the company's Utica operation through the remainder of this year.

EOG Resources raises 2025 guidance following strategic acquisition | Oil & Gas Journal -- EOG Resources Inc. reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.3 billion, driven by robust production and continued cost discipline. Total revenue came in at $5.5 billion, slightly below the year-ago period but solidly supported by higher-than-expected production. The company also raised its full-year outlook following the strategic acquisition of Encino Acquisition Partners.The Houston-based independent oil and gas producer generated $973 million of free cash flow during the quarter and returned more than $1.1 billion to shareholders through regular dividends and share repurchases.Total company production averaged 1.1 MMboe/d, a 4% sequential increase. Crude oil and condensate volumes reached 504,200 b/d, while NGL production rose 7% to 258,400 b/d, and natural gas output climbed 7% to 2.23 bcfd. Production volumes for crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas all surpassed the midpoints of the company’s guidance.The quarter marked a turning point for EOG’s strategic footprint, with the closing of its acquisition of Encino Acquisition Partners bringing a significant position in the Utica shale. The transaction effectively establishes the Utica as a “foundational asset” in EOG’s portfolio, according to Ezra Yacob, chairman and chief executive officer.To reflect this addition, EOG updated its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $6.2–$6.4 billion, up from $5.8–$6.2 billion. The company also raised its full-year total production forecast to 1.22 MMboe/d, including 521,000 b/d of crude oil, representing a material increase from its previous outlook.

Gulfport Primed to Capture Appalachia’s Natural Gas Opportunities for Data Centers and LNG -- Gulfport Energy Corp.’s top executives said the Northeast is in the sweet spot for natural gas demand increasing from LNG expansions on the Gulf Coast and data center infrastructure opportunities in Appalachia. Gulfport Energy 2025 production forecast bar chart showing quarterly output in MMcfe/day, with natural gas as the dominant share, smaller contributions from NGL and oil, and actual production marked for Q1 and Q2. During the recent second quarter conference call, CEO John Reinhart shared a microphone with CFO Michael Hodges to discuss performance and delve into the macro outlook. The Oklahoma City exploration and production company, 90% weighted to natural gas, primarily develops the Utica Shale, with increasing activity in the Marcellus Shale. It also holds a position in the liquids-heavy SCOOP, aka, the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province.

Infinity Natural Resources Announces Second Quarter 2025 Results and Maintains 2025 Guidance --Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its second quarter 2025 financial and operating results.

Constructed an additional natural gas-weighted pad in Pennsylvania and commenced drilling activities in July
Drilled seven wells totaling approximately 118,000 lateral feet and completed eight wells and 777 stages
Placed one oil-weighted well into sales in the Ohio Utica Shale
Placed six additional wells into sales in July totaling approximately 86,000 lateral feet comprised of (a) two oil-weighted wells in the Ohio Utica Shale and (b) four natural gas-weighted wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania
Delivered total net daily production of 33.1 MBoe/d, approximately 19% oil and 37% liquids
Reported net income of $72.0 million
Delivered Adjusted EBITDAX⁽¹⁾ of $49.6 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin⁽¹⁾ of $16.48 / Boe
Generated $144.6 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2025
Drilling and completion ("D&C") capital expenditures incurred of $70.4 million
Midstream capital expenditures incurred of $2.7 million
Total net debt was approximately $28.1 million as of June 30, 2025
Total liquidity was $321.9 million as of June 30, 2025

"Our second quarter results yet again demonstrated strong operational performance while highlighting the strategic advantages of our diversified Appalachian platform. Our net production for the quarter averaged 33.1 Mboe/d, representing a 25% increase from the first quarter of this year," said Zack Arnold, President & CEO of Infinity. "Our production growth was primarily driven by our Marcellus natural gas development in Pennsylvania. We brought five natural gas wells online at the end of March ahead of schedule and on budget. In addition, we brought online one oil-weighted well from our Rubel Dodd pad in Guernsey County, Ohio in May. Our team continues to execute our 2025 plan. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation and operational excellence has positioned us well for continued growth in 2025 and beyond."

Ohio’s Largest Regional Railroad Moving Frac Sand & NGLs Gets Sold -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Yes, we’re suckers for a good railroad story. Always have been, always will be. And here’s one! FTAL Infrastructure owns short line and terminal switching operator Transtar and is an affiliate of Fortress Investment Group. It’s kind of a Matryoshka doll (a Russian “nesting” doll of one thing inside another). Transtar, owned by FTAL, which is owned by Fortress, is buying the Wheeling & Lake Erie (W&LE) regional railroad for $1.05 billion. W&LE, headquartered in Brewster (Stark County), Ohio, owns 840 miles of track in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Iron Oak Energy Solutions Announces Strategic Acquisition of Northern White Assets from HC Minerals, Inc. to Meet Growing Appalachia Demand --Iron Oak Energy Solutions LLC (Iron Oak Energy or the Company), a leading multi-basin proppant supplier for North American oil and gas companies, today announced the acquisition of the Northern White assets of HC Minerals, Inc. The enhanced production capabilities and distribution network significantly expands Iron Oak Energy's ability to serve customers in the largest U.S. natural gas shale play.Building on the successful integration of Black Mountain Sand, Covia Energy, and High Roller Sand, Iron Oak Energy continues to execute on its growth strategy with the acquisition of HC Minerals' Northern White Sand assets. The acquisition includes HC Minerals' production facility in Wyeville, Wisconsin, and increases Iron Oak Energy's total Northern White Sand production capacity to over twelve million tons per year. Utilizing cost-effective dredge mining techniques with direct access to the Union Pacific Railroad, theWyeville plant enhances Iron Oak Energy's production scale, optionality, and ability to serve growing client needs. The acquisition also extends the Company's market reach with the addition of four highly complementary terminals strategically located in the Marcellus and Utica basins.. "We anticipate strong demand growth in natural gas basins, particularly the Marcellus and Utica regions, driven by rising power generation needs, expanding data center infrastructure, and growing LNG exports. The HC Minerals team brings deep expertise in proppant production, rail logistics, and supply chain operations; capabilities that are well aligned with our business. By expanding both our geographic footprint and production scale, we are even better positioned to meet customer demand with speed and efficiency."HC Minerals CEO Dirk Hallen remarked, "This is an exciting day for HC Minerals as it represents the culmination of the journey we set out on nearly five years ago. I am so proud of what the entire team has achieved together over that time thanks to the relentless efforts of our employees, the continued support of our clients, and the unwavering commitment of our partners at Clearlake Capital and Whitebox Advisors. Getting to know Michael and his leadership team at Iron Oak makes me confident that our employees will be in great hands moving forward, and we wish them all the best as they embark on this new chapter."Concurrent with the closing of the HC Minerals acquisition, Iron Oak Energy entered into a new term loan facility with Chambers Energy Capital and GoldenTree Asset Management. The term loan includes a committed delayed draw feature which allows for incremental capital to support Iron Oak Energy's future growth.

Ohio Utica Sales Grow Rapidly for PA-Based Frac Sand Company - Marcellus Drilling News --We first told you about a frac sand company called Smart Sand some 13 years ago (see Smart Sand Lands Big Name for Board of Directors). Smart Sand, headquartered in Yardley, PA, is a supplier of industrial sand, primarily serving customers in the oil and gas industry, including drillers in the Marcellus and Utica Shale region. Sand—the right kind of sand, which is crystalline—is a critical part of the hydraulic fracturing process. The company issued its second quarter update yesterday with interesting details about the rapidly growing Ohio Utica market for the company’s sand.

Smart Sand's Strategic Moves Drive Higher Sales And Profits - Smart Sand just reported a 16% surge in second-quarterrevenue, hitting $85.8 million as new investments and robust demand for its frac sand paid off.Smart Sand’s impressive quarter came from a mix of technical improvements and a favorable market backdrop. Upgrades at its Blair and Ottawa sites, plus added capacity in the Utica Shale region, lifted sales volumes by 33%, especially in the Northeast US and Canada. The company pulled in $21.4 million in net income, partly thanks to a notable tax benefit, and adjusted EBITDA reached $7.8 million alongside a flurry of new projects. Its Industrial Production Solutions arm also saw volumes climb 28% from last quarter, now accounting for 6% of total sales. With gross profit at $9 million and earnings per share of $0.55, Smart Sand expects steady sales to continue through 2025, betting on ongoing demand for Northern White sand.Smart Sand’s planned $13 to $17 million in capital spending this year is bolstering its market position without putting pressure on its finances. Management expects positive free cash flow in 2025—a rare feat in this industry—while resilient demand for frac sand and strong sales trends could help support investor confidence and steady valuations. Persistent demand for Northern White sand points to the ongoing significance of oil and gas activity in North America, even as the industry evolves. Smart Sand’s gains in key shale regions mirror a larger trend: infrastructure investments and technical upgrades are helping suppliers stay relevant and profitable, underscoring how vital these supply chains are to the region’s energy economy.

LNG, Data Center Booms to Ignite Rebound in Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices, EIA Says --Despite a summer lull in which natural gas prices struggled to hold the $3.00/MMBtu handle in both the futures and cash markets, government forecasters continue to herald coming waves of LNG and data center demand that they expect will drive prices substantially higher this coming winter and in the year ahead. Line chart titled "US Natural Gas Prices" showing Henry Hub bidweek prices, residential prices, and forward-looking forecasts from 2020 through 2026. The graphic highlights seasonal volatility in residential prices and projected increases in Henry Hub forward prices through mid-2025, based on data from NGI and the U.S. Energy Information Administration's June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook.In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that Henry Hub spot prices would average $3.90 in the fourth quarter of this year and $4.30 in 2026. The estimates compare with an actual average of $2.20 in 2024 and summer 2025 prices close to $3.00. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Aug. 4-8 period clocked in at $2.665, up 14.5 cents from the prior week. Benchmark Henry Hub cash prices averaged $2.990, ahead 2.0 cents.

AI’s endless thirst for power is driving a natural gas boom in Appalachia—and industry stocks are booming along with it - Natural gas has always been the overlooked little brother to crude oil that drives the fossil fuel industry dating back to the famed Drake Well in 1859 in Pennsylvania, which launched the U.S. oil and gas industry.The dynamics have changed now—especially in the heart of the gassy Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania. Gas demand is beginning to boom thanks to the electricity feeding frenzy from data centers, skyrocketing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and the ongoing retirements of aging coal plants being replaced by relatively cleaner-burning gas.Many of the nation’s top gas producers, including Expand Energy, EQT, Range Resources, andAntero Resources, all have major Appalachian footprints and market cap values that have spiked by 25% to 75% the past 12 months.Meanwhile, crude oil-weighted stocks are almost all down, mired in a prolonged slump of middling pricing, weaker demand growth, and surging OPEC production hikes. “With the resource-rich potential in this [Marcellus] basin and the growing demand component for AI and data centers and power, it really is setting us up well to help shape this AI revolution that’s going to take place here in the United States,” Range Resources CEO and President Dennis Degner told Fortune.A decade ago, the gas industry’s fortunes focused on seasonality and how cold each winter would prove, Degner said. “Now we’re talking about power and data centers and LNG essentially doubling over the next few years. Those are all big, diverse demand components that really get us excited about the durability of our business model.”The Appalachian region—primarily the Marcellus and Utica shale plays in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio—produces just over one-third of the nation’s gas—and very little oil—with proximity to Virginia’s growing Data Center Alley and, now, more AI infrastructure expected within Appalachia.After a couple of decades during which U.S. power demand remained relatively stagnant,domestic electricity consumption is expected to surge by 25% from 2023 to 2035 and roughly 60% from 2023 to 2050, driven largely by AI and data centers, according to the International Energy Agency. Likewise, record-high LNG exports will roughly double by 2030. Based on new construction underway or greenlit along the U.S. Gulf Coast, LNG exports are expected to rise from 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 to at least 30 billion daily by the end of 2030.“It’s really night and day when you look at the gas names versus the oil names,”. “The fundamentals for gas are very strong. You’re going to have massive tailwinds.”

SRBC Sounds the Alarm on Enormous Water Use for AI Data Centers - Marcellus Drilling News -- -This post is not directly about the Marcellus/Utica, but the issue we discuss is important andsignificantly affects the M-U. Andrew Dehoff, the Executive Director of the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), is sounding the alarm about potential water usage for hyperscale data centers that will be located in the SRBC’s jurisdiction. Dehoff spoke at a Pennsylvania State Senate hearing on Monday. These giant data centers are BIG users of energy and, potentially, big users of water. The water is used not only to cool gas-fired power plants that generate energy for the data centers, but the data centers themselves use water to help cool the thousands upon thousands of computers located in them

FERC Issued EA for Pipe Expansion to Flow More M-U Gas to D.C. -- Marcellus Drilling News --Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage (EGTS), a subsidiary of billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), filed a new project with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) last December to beef up three existing compressor stations in Centre, Clinton, and Franklin counties in Pennsylvania, and one compressor station in Loudoun County, Virginia, to flow more Marcellus molecules to the Washington, D.C. area (see BHE’s Eastern Gas Pipe Proposes Expansion to Flow M-U Gas to D.C.). The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) prepared and recently issued an environmental assessment (EA) for the project. A 30-day public comment period is now ticking.

DT Midstream Advances $600M in Natural Gas Pipeline Projects --DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) is moving forward with a 15% capacity expansion of its Guardian Pipeline LLC and a broader interstate pipeline modernization program, both anchored by utility power demand linked to data centers. Map and chart showing DT Midstream’s LEAP Phase 4 expansion, adding 200 MMcf/d to reach 2.1 Bcf/d capacity by Q1 2026. The LEAP pipeline runs from northeast Texas through Louisiana to LNG facilities along the Gulf Coast, including Sabine Pass, Cameron LNG, and Plaquemines LNG. Expansion phases and capacities are detailed, with total potential reaching around 4 Bcf/d. The 1.3 Bcf/d interstate Guardian pipeline, acquired from Oneok Inc. in 2024, serves northern Illinois and Wisconsin markets. DTM can supply its gas via the Joliet hub from the Vector Pipeline LP and Nexus Gas Transmission pipelines or its Midwestern Gas Transmission Co. The roughly 210 MMcf/d expansion would cost $345-375 million for compression and looping and could be in service in late 2028, management said. Wisconsin Electric Co. utilities represent around 95% of the pipeline’s capacity.

Big Green Shows Up at NC DEQ Final Hearing on MVP Southgate -- Marcellus Drilling News -- In 2018, Equitrans Midstream, the builder of the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), proposed to extend MVP by an extra 75 miles from the current terminus in Pittsylvania County, VA, to Alamance County, NC, to provide natural gas for heating and electric generation. The 75-mile extension is called MVP Southgate. In December 2023, MVP changed the Southgate plan by cutting the distance by more than half and bumping up the size (diameter) of the pipeline (see Equitrans Slices MVP Southgate Pipe Project From 75 to 31 Miles). The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) held a public hearing Tuesday evening to receive public feedback on whether the DEQ should issue a Clean Water Act 401 certification for the project. Anti-fossil fuel groups (paid to be there) were on hand to object.

Venture Global Hones in on Natural Gas Supply, Brownfield Expansions to Fuel LNG Growth -With its third export terminal reaching the construction phase and at least another 42 million tons/year (Mt/y) in projects on the horizon, Venture Global Inc. is looking to tap more supply basins and grow its position as a Gulf Coast natural gas player. Map of the proposed CP Express Pipeline route from Texas to Louisiana, showing the pipeline’s red path through Beaumont, Calcasieu Parish, and Cameron Parish, with key points including the Moss Lake Compressor Station and CP2 LNG terminal facilities near the Gulf of Mexico. As part of its recently sanctioned CP2 LNG project, Venture also secured financing for its 85.4 CP Express pipeline project designed to send up to 4.4 Bcf/d from the Katy, TX area near Houston to its export facilities in southwestern Louisiana.

Top Destinations for U.S. LNG Exports in 2025; Key Trends to Track -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Earlier today, Reuters published a great article titled “Key US natural gas trends to track as LNG exports hit new highs.” The article is full of terrific charts (and narrative) showing where our LNG is currently going (by country), along with where it has gone historically (by country). The article reveals that over the first 8 months of 2025, total U.S. LNG exports climbed by 22% or by 12.4 million tons from the same months in 2024 to a record 69 million tons. Europe accounted for over two-thirds of U.S. export volumes, followed by Asia. The top three markets were the Netherlands, France, and Spain, which together accounted for 28% of total U.S. LNG shipments so far this year.

Commonwealth LNG Requests September Site Prep, Adding to Feed Gas Demand Outlook — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

1.2 Bcf/d: Commonwealth LNG LLC is looking to start pre-construction and environmental work at the proposed 9.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) capacity Louisiana terminal by Sept. 19 after its FERC authorization was finalized. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission reaffirmed its final order for the project in June, followed by a period for appeal. That period expired in July, clearing the way for Commonwealth’s final investment decision targeted for this fall. At peak operation, the facility could add roughly 1.2 Bcf/d in feed gas demand to the Gulf Coast market by early 2029.
3.3 Bcf/d: FERC has granted permission to Venture Global Inc. to introduce feed gas to liquefaction Block 16 at Plaquemines LNG. Once operational, 15 blocks with 30 trains will be producing LNG at the Louisiana facility, bringing its possible export capacity to 22.5 Mt/y. Thirty operating trains also increases the possible feed gas demand at Plaquemines by up to 3.3 Bcf/d.
1.4 Mt/y: New Fortress Energy Inc. has delayed its quarterly earnings report for the second period in a row citing ongoing transactions with its creditors. The firm disclosed that revenues “significantly decreased” compared with the same period last year, in part because of reduced terminal activities and fewer LNG cargoes sold. LNG exports from NFE’s Fast LNG 1 facility offshore Altamira, Mexico, reached a high point in the second quarter at 0.37 Mt, according to Kpler data. However, output has continued to trend below the unit’s 1.4 Mt/y nameplate capacity and the company’s target to produce between 1.47 Mt/y and 1.67 Mt/y.
0.3 Mt: LNG Canada is planning a restart of Train 1 this week amid reported troubleshooting and maintenance at the British Columbia export facility. The company has published three advisories since the beginning of the month notifying locals of flaring due to maintenance and inspections. LNG Canada exported 0.3 Mt during July, about half the design capacity of Train 1, according to Kpler.

Shell Loses Case Against Venture Global for Delayed LNG Cargoes -Venture Global has won an arbitration case brought against it by Shell. The case accused Venture Global of not delivering contracted LNG shipments *for years* while Venture Global sold those shipments on the open/spot market for more money than they would have made from honoring their contracts with Shell (and with other big LNG buyers, Shell wasn’t the only one to sue). Shell claimed to have spent some $1.7 billion more buying LNG than it would have if Venture Global had honored its contract. Yet in arbitration, the tribunal found that Venture Global did honor the letter of the contracts signed. Venture Global may have won based on the letter of the contract, but they certainly lost based on the spirit of the contract, by exploiting loopholes. They lost the trust of their customers.

Natural Gas 'Sold Off Sharply' on Tuesday -The September natural gas contract “sold off sharply yesterday as Monday’s initial show of support collapsed”, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, said in a report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Wednesday. That report highlighted that the September natural gas contract closed at $2.808 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Tuesday. It outlined that this was a 14.6 cent, or 4.9 percent, drop from Monday’s close. “Cooling demand will make a step-change lower into the last third of August to bring forward the end of summer - and push back any meaningful declines in the storage surplus,” Rubin said in the report, noting that “it could remain difficult for any rally in the face of a 175+ billion cubic foot surplus to normal”. “Supply remains stout and LNG demand, while finally rising, will only exert a slow, supportive impact over time,” Rubin added. “Tropical risks should rise in coming weeks and overhanging demand destruction threat may bias risk perception in a bearish direction,” Rubin warned in the report. The EBW Analytics Group analyst went on to state in the report that technicals point to a deeper test of support at $2.65 per MMBtu within the next 7-10 days. “Although a still-further price drop may not be immediate - and the seasonal outlook may be modestly oversold - there are few identifiable bullish fundamental catalysts that will impede the further erosion of the September contract into the end of the month,” Rubin warned in the report. In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Rubin highlighted that the September natural gas contract dropped to $2.881 per MMBtu on Monday “before recovering to touch $3.000 [per MMBtu] by late morning”. “However, the near-term fundamental outlook is devoid of upside catalysts as weather-driven demand continues to erode,” Rubin said in that report, which highlighted that the September natural gas contract closed at $2.954 per MMBtu on Monday. That figure represented a drop of 3.6 cents, or 1.2 percent, compared to Friday’s close, the EBW report outlined. “August 2025 is increasingly on track for the coolest August since 2017,” Rubin stated in that report.

US natural gas prices edge up on higher demand, Freeport LNG's return -US natural gas futures edged up about one per cent on Wednesday on forecasts for higher demand during the next two weeks than previously expected and the return to near full service of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas following a brief decrease. That small price increase occurred despite a big weekly storage build and near-record output. Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.3 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to settle at $2.841 per million British thermal units. In intraday trade on Thursday, the contract fell to just one cent above the eight-month intraday low of $2.764 per mmBtu hit on Wednesday. The US Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 56 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended August 8. That figure was close to the 54-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of two bcf during the same week last year and an average increase of 33 bcf over the 2020-2024 period. Analysts noted the big storage build, which left stockpiles about seven per cent above the five-year normal for this time of year, was due in part to cooler-than-usual weather last week. The US National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Erin will strengthen into a major hurricane as it moves west across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Bahamas over the next week. Meteorologists at AccuWeather have said Erin would likely blast Bermuda with wind and rain and produce dangerous beach conditions across the US East Coast next week. Analysts noted the storm would also cool the weather along the US East Coast. In addition to Erin, the NHC said a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico had a 40 per cent chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days. Even though storms can boost prices by knocking Gulf of Mexico gas production out of service, analysts have said they are more likely to cut demand and prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking power out to millions of homes and businesses, which reduces the amount of gas that electric generators need to burn. Only about two per cent of all US gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, while gas-fired power plants supply more than 40 per cent of the nation's electricity. Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 108.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.9 bcfd in July. On a daily basis, however, output has dropped about 3.3 bcfd to a one-month low of 106.4 bcfd on Wednesday since hitting a daily record high of 109.7 bcfd on July 28. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 29. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111.9 bcfd this week to 111.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants has risen to 16.2 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16 bcfd in April. In Texas, Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to take in more gas on Thursday, in a sign that one of its liquefaction trains likely exited Wednesday's short-term outage, according to a company filing with state regulators and gas flow data from LSEG.

Not Done Yet? Permian Pricing, Asian Demand Still Buoying Mexico LNG Prospects --Amigo LNG SA de CV, a joint venture formed by Texas-based Epcilon LNG LLC and Singapore-based LNG Alliance Pte. Ltd., has signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the marine facilities at its planned LNG project slated for Mexico’s Sonora state. Table of Mexico LNG proposed and under construction projects showing facility names, locations, types, train numbers, capacities in million tonnes per annum (MTPA), and billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), including projects in Sonora, Veracruz, Baja California, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, and Sinaloa, with a total capacity of 48.2 MTPA and 6.4 Bcf/d. The contract with Constructora Manzanillo SA de CV would include the LNG jetty at the Pacific Port of Guaymas, as well as berthing and mooring facilities, and associated works to support LNG loading operations. LNG Alliance CEO Muthu Chezhian told NGI that an EPC contract for the liquefaction facility was imminent and that a final investment decision on the project was slated for later this year, based on an “already sold out” first train.

Phillips 66 Cuts Gasoline Output at Bayway Refinery After Fire (Reuters) — Phillips 66 has reduced gasoline output at its 258,000 barrel-per-day Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey after a fire near the plant's gasoline producing unit, two people familiar with the matter said on Aug. 14. An ancillary piece of equipment of the refinery's Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit caught fire and led to the production outage, the sources said. The cause of the fire was not immediately clear. The refinery is expected to resolve the issue over the coming days and return to full production, one of the sources said. Phillips 66 did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Bayway produces around 155,000 barrels per day of gasoline and is one of the largest suppliers of fuel on the U.S. East Coast. The refinery was partially shut last month after rainstorms caused a power outage at the plant, resulting in a brief spike in prices for refined products at the New York Harbor as Phillips 66 made up for the outages by buying fuel on the open market.

Second fuel spill fouls Padden Creek during work to enhance fish passage --A contractor hired to help migrating salmon and other fish in Padden Creek spilled diesel fuel into the water for a second time last week, killing fish forcing most work to stop as cleanup efforts continued, Bellingham officials said last week.An estimated 332 gallons of diesel leaked from a faulty pump Thursday near the Interurban Trail crossing at 12th Street, the city said in a statement late Friday afternoon. A leak from the same pump on Sunday spilled an estimated 344 gallons, for a total of nearly 700 gallons. The city, its contractor Faber Construction, and the state Department of Ecology are working on a cleanup, the city said online. A trail closure already in effect for construction work was extended to the section between 10th Street/Donovan Avenue and Sixth Street."To prevent any further incidents, the contractor is enhancing secondary safety measures at all pump locations and replacing the generator. The spill was contained before it could reach Bellingham Bay. A section of the Interurban Trail/Lower Padden Creek Trail is temporarily closed to ensure public safety and allow cleanup crews access to the site," the city said.Photos provided by the city showed absorbent pads near a culvert in the creek and a containment boom across the creek mouth where it empties into Bellingham Bay in Fairhaven.Faber Construction started July 1 on a project to widen a culvert and remove a fish ladder, replacing it with a natural-looking boulder field to make it easier for salmon to travel the steep hillside. Neighbor Jennifer Irwin told The Herald that there were dead fish and contaminated plants along the creek. Photos showed a petroleum sheer on the water. City officials said at least two cutthroat trout had been killed. "Focus Wildlife has been hired as a wildlife responder to monitor for injured wildlife and deter wildlife from entering the affected area. No additional wildlife impacts have been reported since the second leak," the city said.

Shipping company fined for Puget Sound oil spill -- A commercial shipping company is paying the price for an oil spill in Puget Sound. The Washington Department of Ecology fined Liberty Marine Corporation $32,000 for a 2023 spill near Manchester State Park that dumped 199 gallons of waste oil into the Puget Sound, according to a news release. A crewmember overfilled the ship’s incinerator waste oil service tank while transferring oil from a holding tank. The extra oil leaked through a clogged vent system and discharged overboard via the ship’s rainwater drainage system. `

Pembina Prepping for 5 Bcf/d Natural Gas Production Surge in Western Canada -Pembina Pipeline Corp., which transports natural gas and other hydrocarbons in Western Canada, is preparing for major growth in the region as new LNG export terminals and other demand sources are slowly coming online. Map of Pembina Pipeline Corp.’s infrastructure across Western Canada and parts of the United States, showing conventional pipelines, oil sands and heavy oil pipelines, transmission pipelines, fractionators, gas processing plants, and Pembina gas infrastructure, with key resource regions including Montney, Deep Basin, Duvernay, Cardium, Clearwater, Oil Sands, and Bakken. “Canadian producers are proving resilient despite volatility in commodity prices and the broader economy, and Pembina has observed that its customers’ development plans remain on track,” the company said in its second quarter earnings release. Pembina is advancing more than $1 billion of proposed conventional pipeline expansions to meet rising transportation demand from growing production in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

Natural gas price drops below $375 in Europe -At the close of auctions yesterday, the price of 1,000 cubic meters of gas in Europe fell below $375, APA-Economics reports.On August 15, the price of September futures on the TTF (Title Transfer Facility of the Netherlands, the most liquid virtual sales center in Europe) index was $374.3, which is 3.5% less than the previous calculation price ($388).It should be noted that the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) began on December 31, 2020.

Centrica Snaps Up Europe’s Largest Natural Gas Import Terminal as U.S. LNG Supply Expands -Centrica plc has reached an agreement with National Grid plc to buy the Grain LNG terminal in the UK, Europe’s largest import facility, for about $2 billion as the British energy company continues to expand its global LNG portfolio. In related news, Centrica on Friday said it has agreed to purchase natural gas from multi-basin independent Devon Energy Corp. The 10-year deal would provide Centrica 50,000 MMBtu/d starting in 2028. The amount is equivalent to five LNG cargoes a year, the trading giant noted. Volumes will be indexed to Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF). NGI data showed TTF futures for 2028 settled at $9.529/MMBtu on Thursday (Aug. 14).

Petronas to Expand LNG Exports to New Asian Markets — Petroliam Nasional Bhd. is seeking to expand its liquefied natural gas exports to growing Asian markets while also supporting Malaysia’s rising energy needs that are being partly driven by a data-center boom. The state-owned company’s diversified portfolio — which includes a newly operational export plant in Canada — will enable it to meet overseas demand for gas, said Adif Zulkifli, chief executive officer of Petronas’ gas and maritime business. The firm plans to expand beyond its traditional markets — Japan, China and South Korea — to countries in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and the Philippines, he said in an interview. But the gas-producing country is also eyeing more imports because its reserves are dwindling at a time when its energy requirements are growing thanks to a proliferation in power-hungry data centers serving the artificial intelligence industry. Malaysia imported about 3.3 million metric tons of LNG in 2024, up from 2.1 million tons in 2021, according to Bloomberg’s vessel-tracking data. Petronas will continue exploration for more resources to sustain its domestic production, which has already peaked, Adif said. It operates one of the world’s largest LNG terminals in Bintulu on the Sarawak coast, and has enough gas to fill up its plant there “for as long as we need,” he added. “We have brought in a number of upstream projects to make sure that we are able to deliver gas and sustain that for the next 20 to 30 years,” Adif said at the company’s headquarters on the 42nd floor of the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday. “We are also gearing up to bring in more imports into Peninsular Malaysia.” Traditional gas suppliers in Asia are being forced to rethink their export strategies as they try to reconcile rapid economic growth with falling domestic reserves. Malaysia, which was the world’s fifth-largest shipper of the super-chilled fuel last year, usually meets domestic demand by topping up with cargoes from Australia. Petronas currently provides about 2.3 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas to Peninsular Malaysia and “will try to sustain it as much as we can,” Adif said.

In Sanctions’ Shadow, Russian Arctic LNG 2 Pushes More Cargoes into Global Markets -PAO Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 facility appears to be exporting more LNG cargoes despite a dearth of buyers for sanctioned Russian volumes, according to ship-tracking data. Bar chart showing Russian Federation annual LNG exports by destination region from 2022 to 2025, with volumes in million tons. Data indicates exports to Europe, Asia, the Americas, and unknown destinations, based on NGI analysis of Kpler data. Europe and Asia remain the largest destinations, with a sharp overall decline projected for 2025. A Russian-flagged LNG carrier, dubbed Christophe De Margerie, is indicating a destination somewhere in western Europe after appearing to have loaded at the Arctic LNG 2 facility in the Arctic Circle. The ship is reportedly chartered by the Yamal LNG joint venture (JV) partners, which includes Novatek and TotalEnergies SE, and has been previously used to ship Yamal cargoes to Asia and European gas storage hubs, according to Kpler data. However, that was before European Union (EU) sanctions levied last year prevented the use of infrastructure in the bloc for reshipping Russian LNG.

Petrobras, IBAMA move forward on oil spill drill at Amazon River mouth -A meeting on Tuesday (12) between Petrobras and Brazil’s environmental regulator IBAMA set the stage for announcing the date of the Pre-Operational Assessment (APO), the final step in the environmental licensing process for a potential offshore drilling project at the mouth of the Amazon River, off the coast of Amapá in the Equatorial Margin. The date will be disclosed by IBAMA in the coming days, said Sylvia Anjos, the chief upstream officer at Petrobras. “We’re much closer than before. I’m optimistic,” she noted. In a statement, IBAMA said: “The preparatory meeting for the Pre-Operational Assessment (APO) related to the environmental licensing process for offshore drilling at block FZA-M-59 took place this afternoon [12], involving technical teams from IBAMA and Petrobras. Decisions regarding the APO will be recorded in the licensing process through the SEI [Electronic Information System] in due course.” According to Ms. Anjos, the drilling rig to be used in the APO and the actual drilling is currently in Belém and could reach the site within two days once cleared. The assessment is expected to last three to four days. If IBAMA deems the APO satisfactory and issues the permit, Petrobras would be ready to begin drilling at block FZA-M-59 “immediately,” she said. The APO is a simulated oil spill exercise in which Petrobras must prove its ability to respond to an emergency and demonstrate in practice all the procedures outlined in its contingency plans submitted during the licensing process. Both the company’s wildlife response plan and emergency plan have been approved in principle by IBAMA. Last Friday (8), Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard also expressed optimism. “I think things are moving in the right direction. I spoke personally with IBAMA President Rodrigo Agostinho, and he is aware of everything we are presenting. Licensing Director Cláudia Barros is also aware of all the proposals and conditions we’ve offered.” In preparation for the drill, Petrobras has conducted internal training and simulation exercises with the teams involved, and mobilized vessels, vehicles, wildlife rescue centers, and aircraft to the vicinity of block FZA-M-59. Both the designated drilling rig and support vessels have been inspected and authorized by IBAMA—inspections that are mandatory for the APO, which will involve the full set of resources deployed by the company in the region.

Caucasian Knot | Owner of second tanker fined 35 billion for fuel oil spill -The Arbitration Court of Krasnodar Krai has satisfied the claim of Rosprirodnadzor and fined the owner of the tanker Volgotransneft-239 35 billion rubles for damage to the Black Sea. As "Kavkazsky Uzel" wrote, the court satisfied the claim of Rosprirodnadzor against the owner and charterer of one of the tankers that sank in the Black Sea, Volgoneft-212, and fined it almost 50 billion rubles. At a hearing on August 13, the Arbitration Court of Krasnodar Krai fully satisfied the claim of the Black Sea-Azov Marine Administration of the Federal Service for Nature Management (Rosprirodnadzor) to recover from ZAO "Volgatransneft" (owner of the tanker "Volgoneft-239", which sank in the Kerch Strait in December last year) caused damage to the Black Sea in the amount of 35.48 billion rubles, Interfax reported. "To collect from ZAO "Volgatransneft" to the budget of the Russian Federation the amount of damage in the amount of 35 billion 483 million 862 thousand rubles," the judge said. The decision can be appealed within one month, he added. On December 15, 2024, two tankers carrying fuel oil sank in the Kerch Strait. As a result, a crew member of one of the tankers died. In addition, there was a spill of oil products, which led to catastrophic environmental consequences, according to the "Caucasian Knot" report "Fuel oil spill in the Kerch Strait". As a result of the environmental disaster, Rospotrebnadzor recognized 141 beaches in Anapa and nine beaches in the Temryuk district as unsuitable for recreation. Fuel oil was found on all beaches in Anapa, on the coast in the Temryuk district and on the coast of the Sea of Azov in the Slavyansk district of Kuban, according to the Caucasian Knot report "The extent of fuel oil pollution in southern Russia".

Chevron boosts oil production at Tengiz field — - 15.08.2025 - Kursiv Media Kazakhstan -- Tengizchevroil (TCO), 50% of which is owned by U.S.-based company Chevron, produced 19.46 million tons of oil from the Tengiz field in the first six months of 2025. In the same period in 2024, the company reported production of 14.4 million tons, or 114.6 million barrels, marking a 35.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase. «Once all Tengiz facilities are operating at full capacity, TCO’s total annual crude oil production is expected to reach approximately 40 million tons per annum,» the company said in a statement. In the first half of 2025, TCO sold more than 623,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (669,000 tons in the same period of 2024), about 1.2 million tons of sulfur (over 1.4 million tons in 2024), and more than 2.9 billion cubic meters of sales gas, almost all of which is delivered to the domestic market. Direct payments to Kazakhstan over the two quarters of 2025 totaled around $5 billion ($6.2 billion in 2024). In May, KazMunayGas revised its 2025 oil production forecast for the Tengiz field upward to 35.7 million tons, from 34.8 million tons. The recoverable oil reserves in the Tengiz and Korolev fields are assessed at 1.4 billion tons (11.5 billion barrels), with estimated oil in place of 3.1 billion tons (25 billion barrels) for Tengiz and 200 million tons (1.6 billion barrels) for Korolev. Chevron holds a 50% stake in TCO, with ExxonMobil controlling 25%, KazMunayGas 20% and Russia’s Lukoil 5%.

Indonesia holds back gas exports to prioritize domestic needs --Indonesia has yet to import gas this year, with the government focusing domestic production on meeting local demand while holding back exports, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia has announced. “We are still able to balance export commitments with foreign countries and domestic consumption needs,” Bahlil told a press conference on the ministry’s first-half 2025 performance on Monday, August 11, 2025. According to ESDM data, gas production in the first half of 2025 reached 1,146.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOEPD), or 114 percent of the target. Average production stood at 1,199.7 MBOEPD, equivalent to 119 percent of the target. During the same period, a total of 5,598 billion British thermal units per day (BBTUD) of gas was utilized in Indonesia, with 31 percent (1,721 BBTUD) exported and 69 percent (3,877 BBTUD) used domestically. Bahlil acknowledged that Indonesia is deliberately holding back part of its gas exports. “The President’s instruction is to maximize the use of all domestic products for domestic needs,” he said. He added that any surplus after domestic demand is met could be exported. The government also remains committed to honoring existing contracts with oil and gas contractors (KKKS), noting that breaking them could harm Indonesia’s global reputation. In the domestic sector, gas utilization is divided into two categories: downstream industrial and fertilizer sectors (2,110 BBTUD), and other domestic uses (1,767 BBTUD), which include compressed natural gas (BBG), enhanced oil and gas recovery, electricity generation, LNG, LPG, and household pipeline gas networks. Bahlil stressed that channeling gas into downstream industries brings added value to the economy, saves foreign exchange, generates tax revenues, and supports economic growth in regions where factories are built.

India’s Second-Largest Refinery Sees Imports Plunge as EU Sanctions Bite Nayara Energy, the Indian refiner in which Russia’s oil giant Rosneft holds 49%, is set to import in August the lowest volume of crude ever as the EU sanctions cripple procurement plans and sales of refined petroleum products.Nayara Energy is expected to import just 94,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude this month, Bloomberg reports, citing ship-tracking data and trade sources.The August import volumes are set to be the lowest in the history of the refinery, India’s second-largest, with a capacity to process 400,000 bpd, and would compare to average import levels of about 366,000 bpd for the period July to September 2024.Nayara Energy has so far imported almost 2.9 million barrels of Russia’s flagship Urals crude grade in August, but currently no shipments are planned for the rest of the month, per vessel-tracking data and a shipbroker cited by Bloomberg.The Indian refinery’s troubles began last month when the EU adopted the 18th sanctions package against Russia, targeting a hundred more ‘shadow fleet’ tankers, energy trade, and traders and banks enabling it. In a first move against customers of Russian oil, the EU expanded sanctions on entities doing business with Russian oil, including via asset freezes, travel bans, and bans on providing resources. The bloc sanctioned Russian and international companies managing shadow fleet vessels, traders of Russian crude oil, and a major customer of the shadow fleet – the Nayara Energy refinery in India with Rosneft as its main shareholder. Although analysts had questioned the effectiveness of the EU sanctions without U.S. support, it appears that traders aren’t risking breaching the EU sanctions, and they steer clear of Nayara’s product sales. Several cargoes from Nayara’s fuel export terminal have been canceled in recent weeks due to the sanctions. The refiner is forced to use dark fleet vessels to move the fuel it has produced from refining Russian crude to customers in jurisdictions such as China and other Asian countries.

Gulf Keystone resumes oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan after drone attacks - Iraqi News – Gulf Keystone Petroleum announced on Wednesday that it restarted oil production at the Shaikan oilfield in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which was shut down in July following drone strikes. Officials in the oil sector told Reuters in July that several drone assaults on oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan reduced oil output, including that of other businesses, by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day. Gulf Keystone has a production-sharing deal with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), with an 80 percent operating interest in the Shaikan license, which is located approximately 60 kilometers (37 miles) northwest of the city of Erbil, according to Reuters. Following a security review and discussions with the KRG, the firm announced that production activities at the Shaikan oilfield had resumed. The firm said that it will offer an additional update on production and sales when it announces its first-half results later this month. A string of drone attacks during July targeted oil facilities and other important sites in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the necessity of holding responsible those involved in the recent attacks on Iraq’s energy infrastructure. Rubio also emphasized the need to take measures to prevent future attacks, according to a statement released by the US Department of State. Spokesperson of the US State Department Tammy Bruce said in a press briefing that the US firmly opposes the drone assaults, which have been targeting oil sites in the Kurdistan region of Iraq since July 14. These attacks threaten Iraq’s stability and economic future, according to Bruce. Multiple incidents of mysterious drone attacks on energy infrastructure in recent weeks have sparked domestic and international alarm about the emergence of security tensions, which might harm the Iraqi economy and reconstruction efforts.

The Looming Oil Glut and Market Imbalances in 2025-2026: Strategic Positioning for Oversupply -The global oil market is hurtling toward a critical inflection point. By 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a 3 million barrels per day (bpd) surplus, driven by relentless supply growth outpacing demand. This imbalance, fueled by OPEC+ production ramp-ups and non-OPEC expansion, threatens to collapse prices to levels not seen in a decade. For investors, the challenge lies in navigating this oversupply while identifying strategic opportunities to short vulnerable energy producers and hedge against price volatility. The IEA's latest analysis reveals a stark disconnect between supply and demand. Global oil production is set to surge by 4.4 million bpd by 2026, with OPEC+ accounting for 60% of the increase. Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Canada are leading the charge, while Brazil and Guyana add incremental volumes. Meanwhile, demand growth is projected to stagnate at just 700,000 bpd in 2026, a 20,000 bpd revision downward from earlier forecasts. This disparity is already manifesting in inventory builds of 2.3 million bpd in Q1 2026, with floating storage and strategic reserves absorbing the overflow. The EIA forecasts Brent crude averaging $51/bbl in 2026, a 20% drop from 2025 levels. This trajectory is exacerbated by the U.S. administration's explicit goal to reduce prices to $50/bbl, a policy aligned with its broader energy strategy. The oversupply crisis creates fertile ground for shorting energy producers, particularly in subsectors with structural vulnerabilities.

U.S. Shale Producers: Companies like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) face margin compression as prices fall below their $65/bbl breakeven threshold. With 80% of their 2026 production unhedged, these firms are exposed to a 30% earnings decline if prices hit $50/bbl. Short-sellers have already accumulated $700 billion in oil equity short positions, betting on a wave of debt defaults and production cuts.
Oilfield Services (OFS): Firms like Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) are at risk as drilling activity wanes. With global rig counts projected to drop 15% in 2026, OFS revenue is expected to contract by 25–30%. Shorting these cyclical plays offers a leveraged bet on the sector's decline.
OPEC+ Marginal Producers: Venezuela and Nigeria, with high production costs and infrastructure bottlenecks, are prime candidates for default. Shorting their sovereign debt or national oil companies could capitalize on liquidity strains.

While shorting strategies capitalize on the bearish outlook, hedging remains critical for managing downside risk. U.S. producers have adopted costless collars and three-way collars to lock in prices while retaining upside potential. For example, EQT and Diamondback Energy have hedged 60% of their 2026 production using these instruments, securing prices above $65/bbl. However, these hedges are short-term, with most expiring by mid-2026, leaving producers exposed to the long-term price collapse. Geopolitical risks, such as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or renewed Russia-Ukraine tensions, could temporarily spike prices. However, these events are unlikely to reverse the long-term oversupply trend. OPEC+'s accelerated unwinding of production cuts—fully lifting 2.2 million bpd of cuts by September 2025—will further exacerbate the surplus. Investors should monitor OPEC+ policy shifts and U.S. shale output, as these will dictate the pace of the price decline.

OPEC Raises Oil Demand Growth Estimates for Next Year --Global oil demand is set to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, OPEC said on Tuesday as it raised its forecast for next year by 100,000 bpd on the back of expected stronger economies in key oil-consuming regions. In its closely-watched monthly report out of Tuesday, OPEC said that the upward revision for 2026 was “on the back of expected better economic performance in OECD America, OECD Europe, as well as the Middle East and Africa.” The cartel left its demand growth estimate for this year unchanged at 1.29 million bpd, expecting global consumption to hit 106.36 million bpd in the fourth quarter. For 2026, the estimate is that the world will consume an average of 106.52 million bpd of oil, up by 100,000 bpd compared to last month’s assessment. While OPEC lifted the demand growth estimate for next year, it revised down the forecast of supply from producers outside the OPEC+ pact, by 100,000 bpd. This year’s non-OPEC+ liquids production is set to grow by 800,000 bpd to average 54.0 million bpd, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina will lead output growth of OPEC’s rival supply this year. U.S. growth will be 310,000 bpd this year—the biggest driver of non-OPEC+ oil production increases. But next year, in a major shift in the past years, it will be Brazil that will lead annual production growth among non-OPEC+ producers, not the United States. Brazil’s annual production growth is estimated at 160,000 bpd in 2026, while the U.S. increase is seen at 130,000 bpd, according to OPEC’s estimates. Overall, non-OPEC+ production is expected to grow by 600,000 bpd to average 54.7 million bpd in 2026—revised down by about 100,000 bpd from last month’s assessment. The main liquids production growth drivers are set to be Brazil, the U.S., Canada, and Argentina.

Oil Prices Slide to 2-Month Lows Ahead of Trump–Putin Meeting -Oil prices retreated in early Monday trading as traders await a closely watched meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska later this week. Brent crude slipped 0.7% to $66.13 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.8% to $63.36. The drop extends a recent downtrend, with Brent now at its lowest level since early June. Trump’s self-imposed deadline for Moscow to strike a peace deal with Ukraine passed without the imposition of new U.S. sanctions, a move that ING analysts say has temporarily calmed fears of immediate supply disruptions from Russia—one of the world’s largest crude exporters. While that eased supply-side tension, it also removed a key bullish driver for oil prices in the near term. CFTC data shows hedge funds and other speculators have cut their net long positions in Brent, signaling a shift in sentiment. ING notes that despite ongoing geopolitical flashpoints, traders are increasingly unwilling to bet on sustained price gains without stronger demand fundamentals. The bigger story for oil markets is on the demand side. Trump’s sweeping tariffs on dozens of U.S. trade partners are expected to dampen global trade flows and economic activity, weighing on fuel consumption. The IMF has already warned that escalating trade tensions could shave up to 0.5% from global GDP growth, which would translate into lower oil demand growth in 2024–2025. Recent manufacturing data from Europe and Asia has also shown a slowdown, adding to concerns that the global economy is losing momentum. “The market’s focus has clearly shifted from supply risks to demand risks,” ING said in a note. This week’s Trump–Putin meeting will be closely scrutinized for any signs of sanctions policy changes, which could either tighten supply or further depress prices if no action is taken. Traders will also watch for fresh Chinese economic data and U.S. inventory reports, which could either confirm or challenge the bearish demand narrative.

Traders Looked Ahead to Talks Between the U.S. and Russia - The crude oil market posted an inside trading day and settled higher as traders looked ahead to talks this week between the U.S. and Russia over the war in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. President Trump set a deadline of last Friday to agree to peace or have its oil buyers face secondary sanctions. The market’s gains have been limited as the U.S. has only imposed an extra tariff on India alone rather than all buyers of Russian oil. The market posted a low of $63.02 in overnight trading before it retraced its previous losses and rallied to a high of $64.44 by mid-morning. The oil market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The September WTI contract settled up 8 cents at $63.96 and the October Brent contract settled up 4 cents at $66.63. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.17 cents at $2.2910 and the RB market settled down 95 points at $2.0766. A White House official said U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order extending a pause in sharply higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days. A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington had been set to expire on August 12th. U.S. President Donald Trump said that his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin this Friday in Alaska will be a “feel-out meeting” aimed at urging Russia to end the war in Ukraine. He said both Ukraine and Russia would have to cede land to each other to end the war. He also said a future meeting could include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelinskiy said that there were no signs that Russia was preparing to put an end to its hostilities in Ukraine. He said Russia was instead moving troops and forces in such a way as to launch new offensive operations. European leaders and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy will speak to U.S. President Donald Trump this week ahead of his summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, amid fears Washington may dictate unfavorable peace terms to Ukraine. UBS expects Brent crude to trade unchanged at $68/barrel at the end of September. It sees a decline to $62/barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 for Brent crude. It then sees a recovery in prices to $65/barrel by mid-2026, where it will likely remain around the second half of the year. It narrowed the WTI discount to Brent to $3/barrel from a previous forecast of $4/barrel. UBS expects OPEC+ to pause its production adjustments, unless larger lasting unexpected supply disruptions emerge. It expects global oil demand to set a peak for 2025 this month and modestly decline over the coming months. Several trade sources said Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September, falling from a more than two-year high in August after the world’s largest exporter increased its prices. Saudi Aramco will ship about 43 million barrels or 1.43 million bpd to China in September. That is down from 1.65 million bpd allocated in August. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 221,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 15th, unchanged from the previous week.

Oil settles flat ahead of US-Russia talks (Reuters) - Oil settled flat on Monday after falling more than 4% last week, as investors looked towards talks this week between the U.S. and Russia over the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled up 4 cents, or 0.06%, at $66.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 8 cents, or 0.13%, at $63.96. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The talks follow increased U.S. pressure on Russia, raising the prospect of tighter penalties on Moscow if a peace deal is not reached. Trump said on Monday both Ukraine and Russia would have to cede land to each other to end the war and that his talks with Putin would be aimed at taking the temperature on a possible deal. Trump set a deadline of last Friday for Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, to agree to peace or have its oil buyers face secondary sanctions. At the same time, Washington is pressing India to reduce purchases of Russian oil. Oil prices have fallen in recent days as market participants lowered supply disruption estimates, probably because the U.S. imposed an extra tariff only on India rather than all buyers of Russian oil, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. UBS has lowered its year-end Brent crude forecast to $62 a barrel from $68, citing higher supply from South America and resilient output from sanctioned countries. Indian demand had fallen short of expectations of late, the bank said, adding it expected OPEC+ to pause its production increases unless larger unexpected supply disruptions emerge. OPEC's oil output rose further in July after an OPEC+ agreement to raise production, a Reuters survey found on Friday, although the hike was limited by Iraq making additional cuts and by drone attacks on Kurdish oilfields. "The balance right now is between OPEC not raising production as much as anticipated versus the possibility that there will be a Ukraine ceasefire deal, and Russian oil might start to flow freely. That balance has oil bouncing around like a yo-yo right now," Elsewhere, an Exxon Mobil-led consortium began crude production four months earlier than expected at a fourth floating production, storage and offloading vessel in Guyana, Exxon said on Friday. Separately, data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July.

Oil edges up amid tariff delay, uncertainty over Russia-US talks - Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying increased tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days, while uncertainty over Washington-Moscow talks and concerns about persistent US inflation capped further gains. International benchmark Brent crude rose 0.2% to $66.53 per barrel at 10.30 a.m. local time (0730 GMT), up from $66.38 at Monday’s close. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 0.1% to $63.38 per barrel, compared to $63.28 in the previous session. On Monday, Trump announced he had signed an order extending the suspension of higher tariffs on Chinese imports until Nov. 10. "All other elements of the Agreement will remain the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Trump said on Truth Social. The order maintains a 10% reciprocal tariff during the suspension period. Analysts say the move could bolster energy demand by supporting economic activity, lending upward momentum to oil prices. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding an upcoming meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to weigh on sentiment. Trump said he plans to review Putin's proposal to end Kremlin's war in Ukraine during a summit in Alaska and hopes to secure a sit-down between the two leaders. "I like to see a ceasefire very, very quickly, very quick. I'd like to see it immediately, but I'd like to see it very quickly," Trump said. Analysts say that progress toward a ceasefire could ease supply concerns and lower prices, but the risk of no agreement keeps prices supported. In a related development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to further restrict Russian oil exports, adding additional upward pressure on prices. The two leaders also discussed sanctions against Russia and agreed to meet at the UN General Assembly in September, according to Zelenskyy. His comments came as India faces 50% US tariffs, partly over its purchases of Russian crude. India, alongside China, remains one of Russia's largest crude customers. On the other hand, data showing US inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target strengthened expectations that the central bank will delay interest rate cuts, which limited price gains. Rate reductions aimed at stimulating economic growth typically increase demand in oil-reliant sectors such as manufacturing and transportation. Analysts caution that a delay could weigh on prices by curbing demand.

News of the U.S. and China Extending a Pause on Higher Tariffs - The oil market on Tuesday posted yet another inside trading day as the market weighed the news of the U.S. and China extending a pause on higher tariffs and the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Friday. The market remained cautious ahead of the meeting as any progress in a ceasefire or even a peace deal would likely mean that Russian barrels will continue flowing. The market posted a high of $64.34 early in the morning before it erased its gains and sold off to a low of $63.06 in afternoon trading. The market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close as it positioned itself ahead of the weekly petroleum stocks reports later in the evening and Wednesday morning. The September WTI contract settled down 79 cents at $63.17 and the October Brent contract settled down 51 cents at $66.12. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 4.69 cents at $2.2441 and the RB market settling down 22 points at $2.0744. OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and cut its forecast for growth in supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market outlook. OPEC said world oil demand will increase by 1.38 million bpd in 2026, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This year’s expectation was left unchanged at 1.29 million bpd. Oil supply from countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 810,000 bpd this year and 630,000 bpd in 2026, down from last month’s forecast of 730,000 bpd. The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside OPEC+ would make it easier for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to produce more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market. The report also showed that in July, OPEC+ raised its crude output by 335,000 bpd, a further increase reflecting its decisions this year to increase output quotas. OPEC+ crude output averaged 41.94 million bpd in July. OPEC crude oil production increased by 263,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd. The EIA released their latest Short Term Energy Report on Tuesday and it has revised downward its projection for U.S. crude oil output in 2026 by 90,000 b/d to 13.28 million b/d. This would mark the first annual drop in U.S. domestic crude production since 2021. But the EIA sees U.S. crude oil production hitting a new all-time high this coming December of 13.6 million b/d before beginning its contraction. The EIA also increased its forecasts for a global supply surplus in 2025 to about 1.7 million b/d, up from a previously estimated 1.1 million b/d.BloombergNEF is estimating global passenger jet fuel demand for the period of August 12-18 will drop by 0.6% to some 7.46 million b/d. The demand for the week though is still some 4.2% higher than the same week a year ago. The Farmers’ Almanac this week has released its winter forecast for 2025-2026. It warns of cold for a massive portion of the United States, with the season’s coldest temperatures will be found from the Northern Plains to New England”. The Farmer’s Almanac in particular is calling for “a significant cold snap in mid-January” followed by another in mid-February.

Oil prices dip as market awaits EIA report (Reuters) - Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as traders awaited an inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and began looking toward declining demand at the end of the summer driving season in early September. Brent crude futures settled at $66.12 a barrel, down 51 cents, or 0.77%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $63.17, down 79 cents, or 1.24%. "We're not getting any lift from the stock market and the inflation report was positive and points to a rate cut." U.S. consumer prices increased in July as tariff-induced rising costs for imported goods helped to drive the strongest gain in six months for one measure of underlying inflation. Kilduff said demand for diesel, which has driven oil demand, appeared to be flagging. Inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and EIA on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, may show signs of falling demand. Outlooks issued by OPEC and the EIA pointed to increased production this year, but both expect U.S. output to decline in 2026 while other regions of the globe will increase oil and natural gas production. OPEC's monthly report on Tuesday said global oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. Its 2025 projection was left unchanged. U.S. crude production will hit a record 13.41 million bpd in 2025 due to increases in well productivity, though lower oil prices will prompt a fall in output in 2026, the EIA forecast on Tuesday in a monthly report. The decline in 2026 production to 13.28 million bpd would be the first drop in output since 2021 for the world's largest producer. Prices for the international benchmark Brent will average $51 per barrel next year, down from the EIA's previous forecast of $58 per barrel, after OPEC and its members decided to accelerate the pace of production increases. This week, U.S. President Donald Trump extended a tariff truce with China to November 10, staving off triple-digit duties on Chinese goods as U.S. retailers prepared for the critical end-of-year holiday season. Also potentially weighing on the oil market, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending Russia's war in Ukraine. "If Friday's meeting brings a ceasefire or even a peace deal in Ukraine closer, Trump could suspend the secondary tariffs imposed on India last week before they come into force in two weeks," Commerzbank said in a note. "If not, we could see tougher sanctions against other buyers of Russian oil, like China."

Oil Demand Steadies As Supply Rises, Market Eyes Price Stability -Oil prices dipped midweek as market sentiment shifted in response to the International Energy Agency's latest forecast, which indicated that global oil supply is set to outpace demand this year. Brent crude futures slipped 41 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to $65.71 a barrel by mid-morning London time, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 50 cents, or 0.8 per cent to $62.67.Analysts pointed to the combination of the American Petroleum Institute's latest inventory data and the IEA's softer demand outlook as key drivers of the downward move, even as the market awaits Friday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.The IEA has raised its projections for oil supply growth in 2025 while trimming demand forecasts, citing weaker fuel consumption in major economies such as China, India and Brazil. However, the agency still expects global oil demand to grow by 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, bringing total demand to around 104.4 million bpd. Growth in the second quarter came entirely from non-OECD countries, while consumption in the OECD was flat. Aviation has been a notable bright spot, with global jet fuel demand hitting record summer highs in the US and Europe.Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudotrade stated in a note to Khaleej Times that crude oil remained under pressure on Wednesday as the market awaited more US inventory data and the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin.“The market was also reacting to the US crude stockpiles API data, which rose by 1.5 million barrels.” The unexpected rise in inventories could weigh on demand expectations in the US and leave market participants more cautious.Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital, stated that oil markets have entered a cautious“wait-and-see” mode ahead of the scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska. Prices have stabilised after heavy losses since the start of August, with Brent crude holding firm around the $66 mark, while WTI hovers just above key support at $652 per barrel. This relative calm reflects investor hesitation to make big moves until the diplomatic outcome becomes clearer.On the supply side, global output remained steady in July at 105.6 million bpd, with a drop in Opec+ production offset by an equivalent increase from non-Opec+ sources. Higher Opec+ targets from September will push global supply growth to 2.5 million bpd this year and 1.9 million bpd in 2026, with non-Opec+ producers contributing the largest share. Recent commitments by eight Opec+ members to unwind the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts by September will add 547,000 bpd in the coming month. Non-Opec+ supply will be bolstered by US natural gas liquids, Canadian crude, and offshore production in the US, Brazil and Guyana.Opec's own monthly oil report this week made no changes to its 2025 demand and supply outlook, but raised its 2026 demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd, while lowering non-Opec+ supply growth for that year. This points to a tighter market over the medium term. The US Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, slightly increased its crude oil production estimate for 2025 to 13.41 million bpd, though it expects output to decline by 130,000 bpd in 2026 amid reduced drilling activity.While the near-term supply outlook is comfortably balanced, geopolitical factors continue to cloud the longer-term picture. The US has introduced its most significant Iran-related sanctions since 2018, aiming to restrict Tehran's ability to sell oil, while pressing major buyers of Russian crude, notably India, to scale back imports. The European Union is preparing a ban on oil products refined from Russian crude starting in January 2026, along with a lower price cap on Russian oil from September this year. At the same time, Washington has eased restrictions on Venezuela, with Chevron granted a new licence to operate and export oil.Oil prices have remained relatively stable in recent months, with Brent crude hovering near $70 a barrel in July, reflecting low market volatility. However, early August saw prices fall to around $67 following Opec+'s announcement to fully unwind production cuts. Market watchers say the interplay between rising supply, uneven demand growth, and the impact of sanctions will be pivotal in determining price trends for the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

WTI Hovers Near 11-Week Lows After Surprise Crude Build, Production Pop - Oil prices fell to a ten-week low early on Wednesday as another major forecasting agency warned global inventories are on the rise amid higher supply while a report showed an unexpected hike in U.S. inventories.In its monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency again trimmed its 2025 demand-growth forecast to 0.7-million barrels per day (bpd), down by 20,000 bpd from July and by 350,000 bpd since the start of the year, on weaker than expected demand from developing economies."While oil market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026, additional sanctions on Russia and Iran may curb supplies from the world's third and fifth largest producers ... While it is still too early to determine the outcome of these latest policy changes moving in different directions, it is clear that something will have to give for the market to balance," the report noted.The report follows on Tuesday's Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that slashed its Brent crude price forecast to US$58.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, down from its July forecast of US$71.00, as it sees supply up 2.0-million bpd in the second half of 2025 from the year's first six months, while demand is up by only 1.6-million b/d, pushing inventories higher and lowering prices. Overnight saw prices drift lower after API reported a surprise crude build, adding to concerns that demand may not be there. API:

Crude +1.52mm (-1.0mm exp)
Cushing
Gasoline -1.78mm
Distillates +295k

DOE

Crude +3.036mm (-1.0mm exp)
Cushing +45k
Gasoline -792k
Distillates +714k

The official data confirmed API's surprise build for crude stocks as the Cushing hub saw stocks rise fo rthe 6th straight week (though only modestly last week)... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Another weekly addition to the SPR helped drive total US commercial crude stocks higher... US Crude production inched higher last week (amid ongoing trend lower in rig counts)... Crude prices hovered near the lows of the day...

The Market Weighed an Unexpected Build in Crude Oil Inventories - The crude oil market traded lower as the market weighed an unexpected build in crude oil inventories against comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent over leveraging sanctions against Russia. The crude market continued to trade lower in overnight trading after the IEA raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year and lowered its demand forecast. However, the market traded higher and posted a high of $63.38 in light of the news of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that sanctions or secondary tariffs could be increased if the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Friday does not go well and called on European leaders to also leverage sanctions. However, the market traded lower in light of the EIA reporting an unexpected build in crude stocks of 3 million barrels in the week ending August 8th. The oil market sold off to a low of $61.94 by mid-day and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The September WTI contract settled down 52 cents at $62.65 and the October Brent contract settled down 49 cents at $65.63. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 13 points at $2.2428 and the RB market settling down 40 points at $2.0704. The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year following a decision by the OPEC+ producer group to increase its production and lowered its demand forecast due to lower demand across the major economies. The IEA expects world oil supply to increase by 2.5 million bpd in 2025, up from 2.1 million bpd previously forecast. World oil demand will increase by 680,000 bpd this year, down from 700,000 bpd previously forecast. It also lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 700,000 bpd for 2026, down from a previous forecast of 720,000 bpd. It said the market is on track for a record surplus next year as output increases and demand growth slows. Oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million bpd. According to the IEA, despite higher OPEC+ production, non-OPEC producers will continue to lead world supply growth this year and next. It increased its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026 by 100,000 bpd to 1 million bpd, led by the U.S., Guyana, Canada and Brazil. Despite lowering its demand forecast, the IEA expects global oil refining runs to approach an all-time high of 85.6 million bpd in August.U.S. President Donald Trump said that if his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin goes well, he would like to have a quick second meeting with Russia’s President, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and himself. He did not provide a timeframe for a second meeting. He also said Russia would face consequences if Russia’s President does not agree to stop the war.Crude oil flows on the 950,000 bpd Seaway crude oil pipeline fell due to flooding.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 221,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending August 15th, unchanged from the previous week.

Oil Prices Rise As Fed Rate Cut, Trump-Putin Talks Loom - Oil prices rose about 1% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of "severe consequences" if his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine fail and on expectations that a U.S. interest rate cut next month could spur oil demand. Central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, use interest rates to control inflation. Lower interest rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. Brent crude futures were up 87 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.50 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. EDT (1453 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 88 cents, or 1.4%, to $63.53. Those price gains pushed both crude benchmarks out of technically oversold territory for the first time in three days. Brent closed on Tuesday at its lowest price since June 5 and WTI closed at its lowest price since June 2 due in part to bearish inventory and supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency. Putin on Thursday praised "sincere efforts" by the U.S. to end the war in Ukraine and floated the prospect of a nuclear arms deal ahead of a summit on Friday in Alaska with Trump. U.S. allies in Europe have urged Trump to stand firm. Russia was the second-biggest producer of crude in 2024 behind the U.S., so any agreement that may ease sanctions on Moscow would likely boost the amount of Russian oil available for export to global markets. Trump on Wednesday threatened "severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine. The U.S. president did not specify what the consequences could be, but he has warned of economic sanctions if the meeting on Friday proves fruitless. Trump has threatened to enact secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India, if Russia continues its war in Ukraine. "The uncertainty of U.S.-Russia peace talks continues to add a bullish risk premium given Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure," Rystad Energy said in a client note. Some analysts, however, remained sceptical that Trump would take action that could significantly disrupt oil supplies. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September also propped up oil prices. Traders overwhelmingly believe a cut will happen next month after U.S. consumer prices increased at a moderate pace in July. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-percentage-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers. But a jump in U.S. wholesale prices last month looks to have all but erased the possibility that the Fed will deliver a jumbo-sized half-percentage-point interest rate cut in September, though expectations for a quarter-percentage-point move next month, followed by another in October, remain intact. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has pushed back against the need for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank's September 16-17 meeting, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. In Europe, meanwhile, Norwegian oil and gas investments are expected to peak this year, and start declining next year as major projects are completed, a statistics office survey of industry players showed on Thursday. Norway produces about 2% of global oil. It became Europe's largest supplier of pipeline gas after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Upcoming U.S.-Russia Talks on Russian Crude Flows - The oil market on Thursday retraced its previous losses as traders weighed the potential impact of the upcoming U.S.-Russia talks on Russian crude flows, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” for Russia if it does not agree to peace. The oil market traded sideways and posted a low of $62.58 in overnight trading. However, the market bounced off that level and extended its gains throughout the session, posting a high of $64.04 ahead of the close. The uncertainty over the talks contributed to the bullish sentiment amid the possibility that Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure. The market was also supported by the expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September in light of the increase in U.S. consumer prices. The September WTI contract settled up $1.31 at $63.96 and continued to trade higher, posting a new high of $64.09 in the post settlement period. The October Brent contract settled up $1.21 at $66.84. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 83 points at $2.2345 and the RB market settling up 3.88 cents at $2.1092. U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was ready to make a deal on ending the war with Ukraine but added that peace would likely require at least a second meeting involving Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said President Donald Trump will go into talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday hoping to achieve a halt to the fighting in the war in Ukraine, but added that a comprehensive solution to the conflict will take longer. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the United States was making “sincere efforts” to halt the war in Ukraine and suggested Russia and the U.S. could agree a nuclear arms deal as part of a wider effort to strengthen peace. Bank of America projects an average surplus of 890,000 bpd of crude oil from July 2025 through June 2026, resulting in a global oil inventory build up of 100 million barrels. it reiterated its bearish outlook for prices in the second half of this year, with Brent averaging $63.50/barrel, temporarily breaking below $60/barrel. It said monetary/fiscal policy, a weaker U.S. dollar, OPEC+ discipline and lower U.S. volumes my trigger a rebound over $70/barrel by the middle of 2026. Bank of America continues to see long-dated Brent crude prices holding up in a $60-$80/barrel range and project a price recovery into the second half of 2026. Phillips 66 has reduced gasoline output at its 258,000 bpd Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, after a fire near the plant’s gasoline producing unit. An ancillary piece of equipment of the refinery’s fluid catalytic cracking unit caught fire and led to the production outage. The cause of the fire was not immediately clear. The refinery is expected to resolve the issue over the coming days and return to full production. Production on a 75,000 bpd fluidic catalytic cracking unit was shut by a malfunction at Valero Energy’s 380,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery.

Oil prices climb 2% to 1-week high as Fed rate cut, Trump-Putin talks loom (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 2% to a one-week high on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of "severe consequences" if his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putinon Ukraine fail, and on optimism that a likely U.S. interest rate cut next month could spur oil demand. Central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, use interest rates to control inflation. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. Brent crude futures rose $1.21, or 1.8%, to settle at $66.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.31, or 2.1%, to settle at $63.96. Those price gains pushed both crude benchmarks out of technically oversold territory for the first time in three days, and led Brent to its highest close since August 6. On Tuesday, Brent closed at its lowest price since June 5 and WTI closed at its lowest price since June 2 due in part to bearish inventory and supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency. said on Thursday he thought Putin was ready to make a deal on ending his war in Ukraine after the Russian president floated the prospect of a on the eve of their summit in Alaska. But on Wednesday, Trump threatened "severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine, without elaborating. Trump has warned of economic sanctions if the meeting on Friday proves fruitless. Russia was the second-biggest producer of crude in 2024 behind the U.S., so any agreement that could ease sanctions on Moscow would likely boost the amount of Russian oil available for export to global markets. Trump has threatened to enact secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India, if Russia continues its war in Ukraine. "The uncertainty of U.S.-Russia peace talks continues to add a bullish risk premium given Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure," Rystad Energy said in a client note. Some analysts, however, remained skeptical that Trump would take action that could significantly disrupt oil supplies. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September also propped up oil prices. Traders mostly believe a cut will happen next month after U.S. consumer prices increased at a moderate pace in July. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-percentage-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers. But a jump in is likely to bolster concerns among Fed policymakers that rising inflation remains a risk, intensifying debate over the rationale for an rate cut next month and leaving the tension between the U.S. central bank and the White House unresolved. In Europe, Norwegian oil and gas investments are expected to peak this year and start declining in 2026 as major projects are completed, a statistics office survey of industry players showed on Thursday. Norway produces about 2% of global oil. It became Europe's largest supplier of pipeline gas after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Oil prices edge lower ahead of Trump-Putin summit in Alaska - Oil prices slipped on Friday as markets focused on today's meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. International benchmark Brent crude fell 0.57% to $66.08 a barrel at 10:43 a.m. local time (0743 GMT), down from $66.46 at Thursday’s close. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased 0.61% to $62.72 per barrel, compared to $63.11 in the previous session. Markets were grappling with uncertainty ahead of the summit, scheduled for Aug. 15 at Joint Base Elmendorf‑Richardson in Anchorage. The US President said on Thursday that European leaders may be invited to a potential follow-on multilateral meeting after he sits down with Russian President Putin later this week. Trump said he thinks the sit-down will be a "good meeting," but emphasized that the "more important meeting will be the second meeting that we're having." "We're going to have a meeting with President Putin, President Zelenskyy, myself, and maybe we'll bring some of the European leaders along. Maybe not," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. "We're going to see what happens. And I think President Putin will make peace. I think President Zelenskyy will make peace. We'll see if they can get along. And if they can, it will be great," he added. It remains unclear if the second meeting will materialize after Trump and Putin hold their sit-down. Experts say progress toward a ceasefire could ease supply concerns and put downward pressure on oil prices, but prices could remain supported if the talks end without agreement. Meanwhile, a higher-than-expected rise in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) fueled concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs, adding downward pressure on oil prices. The PPI rose 0.9% in July from the prior month and 3.3% from a year earlier, surpassing expectations. It marked the largest monthly increase since June 2022 and the biggest annual gain since February. Expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) strengthened after Tuesday's Consumer Price Index data showed moderate results, but eased following Wednesday's higher PPI reading. Money market pricing shows a 94% chance the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting, with a quarter-point move still widely expected and the odds of a half-point cut remaining low. Lower policy rates are expected to boost US economic activity, supporting higher oil demand.

Oil Prices Drop as Traders Await Trump-Putin Summit -- Oil prices fell by more than 1% early on Friday as the market awaits the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, who will discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. As of 9:37 a.m. EST on Friday, the U.S. benchmark oil price, WTI Crude, was down by 1.38% at $63.10, as President Trump departed for Anchorage, Alaska, to meet with Putin. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded 1.18% lower at $66.07 per barrel. The face-to-face meeting between President Trump and Putin is expected to begin around 3 p.m. EST and it’s unclear how long it would take. President Trump on Thursday threatened “very severe consequences” for Russia if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire agreement. The market struggles to anticipate what the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting will be. Some analysts are concerned that President Trump could agree to Russian terms that could include territorial concession by Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that decisions about Ukraine taken in his absence would be meaningless.Trump has signaled he would at a later stage work for a meeting that would include Zelenskyy. According to A/S Global Risk Management’s chief analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, the Friday meeting “is unlikely to deliver significant results.” “If a follow-up meeting is agreed, Trump may seek to place responsibility on Putin and Zelenskiy,” Rasmussen told Bloomberg. “In the near term, new US sanctions are unlikely; a relaxation cannot be ruled out unless the meeting collapses,” the analyst added. A relaxation of the U.S. sanctions against Russia could increase concerns about oversupply on the market later this year and early 2026. “The geopolitical risk premium tied to the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska is now a secondary driver, and unless talks break down sharply, the macro drag from the demand outlook may keep a lid on rallies, with Brent potentially struggling above USD 70 per barrel,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, saidin a Friday note.

Oil hits two-month low as US, IEA supply guidance weighs (Reuters) - Oil prices closed down nearly $1 on Friday as traders awaited talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which could lead to an easing of the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled 99 cents, or 1.5%, lower at $65.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased $1.16, or 1.8%, lower at $62.80. Trump arrived in Alaska on Friday for his summit with Putin after saying he wants to see a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine "today." Trump has said he believes Russia is prepared to end the war, but he has also threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil if there is no progress with peace talks. Putin also arrived in Anchorage. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia expects the talks to bring results, Russia's Interfax news agency reported. "President Trump will likely threaten further tariff pressure on India and possibly China as far as oil imports from Russia if the meeting stalemates, which is keeping a nervous trade to crude," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. "If a ceasefire announcement is made, it will be taken as a negative to crude near-term," Kissler added. For the week, WTI dropped 1.7%, while Brent eased 1.1%. Weaker economic data from China, meanwhile, raised concerns over fuel demand. Chinese government data showed factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low and retail sales growth expanded at its slowest pace since December, weighing on sentiment despite stronger oil throughput in the world's second-largest crude user. Throughput at Chinese refineries rose 8.9% year-on-year in July, but that was down from June levels, which were the highest since September 2023. Despite the increase, China's oil product exports last month were also up from a year ago, suggesting lower domestic fuel demand. Forecasts of a growing oil market surplus also weighed on sentiment, as did the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. Oil rig count, an indicator of future supply, rose by one to 412 this week, Baker Hughes data showed. Bank of America analysts said on Thursday that they were widening their forecast for the oil market surplus, citing growing supplies from the OPEC+ producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies. The analysts now project an average surplus of 890,000 barrels per day from July 2025 through June 2026. That forecast follows this week's International Energy Agency predictions saying the oil market looks "bloated" after the latest increases to OPEC+ output.

US EIA forecasts crude oil to average below $60 by 2026 -The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected a notable decrease in crude oil prices, anticipating that global oil supply will significantly outpace the demand for petroleum products.The EIA forecasts in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that the Brent crude oil spot price will average less than $60 per barrel (bbl) in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025).This marks the first instance of such low average prices since 2020.Furthermore, OPEC+ recently declared that it would end its oil production cuts by September 2025, a year earlier than initially planned.This adjustment is expected to contribute to most of global oil production growth coming from OPEC+ countries for the first time since the EIA began its OPEC+ production forecast in 2023.The anticipated supply growth is projected to exceed demand, leading to a rapid increase in inventories.EIA acting administrator Steve Nalley said: “There is a lot of uncertainty in the petroleum market. In the past, we have seen significant drops in oil price when inventories grow as quickly as we are expecting in the coming months.”The EIA also predicts that the lower oil prices will result in reduced US retail prices for gasoline and diesel and will cause domestic oil production to fall from the record highs seen in 2025.Global oil prices are expected to drop from over $70/bbl in July to an average of around $58/bbl in Q4 2025, with a further decline to just above $50/bbl in 2026.US crude oil production is set to reach an all-time high of nearly 13.6 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in December 2025, but declining prices in 2026 are likely to reduce drilling and well completion activities.The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 13.3mbbl/d in 2026.However, the EIA’s petroleum forecasts face uncertainties, particularly around supply-related risks.Factors such as a break in the Israel-Iran ceasefire, heightened tensions or additional sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or changes in trade policy could impact supply and demand dynamics, potentially affecting oil prices.Regarding natural gas, the EIA expects US prices to rise, with the Henry Hub natural gas spot price increasing from an average of $3.20 per million British thermal units (MBtu) in July to almost $3.60/MBtu in the second half of 2025.This is expected to further rise to $4.30/MBtu in 2026 due to steady production and growing exports of liquefied natural gas. The macroeconomic outlook used by the EIA in the STEO is based on S&P Global’s model, which includes tariff adjustments announced in April and the 90-day temporary suspension of tariffs granted to most countries.

Financial WMD: How Iran Could Trigger A Global Economic Collapse - Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.” He wasn’t being dramatic—he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive, far-reaching damage to the global economy. What Buffett feared most was how a sudden, unexpected market shock could set off a dangerous chain reaction through the financial system, fueled by the hidden risks and tangled interconnections that derivatives create.These instruments link major banks, hedge funds, and corporations in an intricate web of bets on the future prices of oil, interest rates, currencies, and more.The fear spreads quickly, because many of these derivative contracts are opaque—no one really knows who is exposed or by how much. That uncertainty can lead to panic in the markets, as everyone starts pulling back at once. Losses like these rarely stay contained. A default in one part of the system spreads risk outward. If a major player can’t cover its exposure, it endangers its counterparties. If one of those is a major bank, the problem quickly becomes systemic. This is precisely the kind of domino effect Buffett was describing—a market shock lighting fuses in unexpected places, turning financial interconnectivity into financial fragility. Because derivatives are so interconnected and can involve huge sums of money, the damage can grow quickly and unpredictably, much like a series of explosions. That’s why Buffett saw them not just as risky tools, but as potential threats to the entire financial system. In other words, financial WMD. So why bring this up now? Because the recent war between Israel, the US, and Iran is far from over. At some point, a far more serious confrontation between the US and Iran appears inevitable—and when it comes, it will almost certainly disrupt the flow of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. To call that a severe supply disruption would be an understatement. Consider this. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. It’s the world’s single-most important energy corridor, and there’s no alternative route. Five of the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait—border the Persian Gulf, as does Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Strait of Hormuz is their only sea route to the open ocean… and world markets. At its narrowest point, the space available for shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is just 3.2 kilometers wide. According to the US Energy Information Administration, around 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait daily, accounting for roughly 20% of global oil production—worth about $1.4 billion per day at current prices. Another 20% of global LNG exports also move through the Strait. It’s hard to overstate the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global economy. If someone were to disrupt the Strait, it would ignite a full-blown energy crisis, sending prices soaring and financial markets into chaos. Thanks to its commanding geography and expertise in unconventional and asymmetric warfare, Iran can shut down the Strait, and there’s not much anyone can do about it. It’s Iran’s geopolitical trump card.

Russia's Fuel Exports Plummeted in July -- Shipments of refined petroleum products out of Russia declined by 6.6% in July from the previous month,Reuters estimates showed on Wednesday, as domestic demand rose and capacity under planned maintenance increased. Russian seaborne fuel exports fell to 8.67 million metric tons last month, with shipments from the Baltic ports, the Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports, and the Arctic Murmansk and Arkhangelsk ports all down in July compared to June. Only the fuel shipments from the Far Eastern ports rose in July from a month earlier as most maintenance works at refineries in the area were completed, according to the data provided by industry sources and calculated by Reuters. Going forward, Russia’s refined product shipments could fall further in August, while crude oil exports could rise, as several refineries sustained damages during Ukrainian drone strikes earlier this month. A Sunday drone attack on the Saratov refinery, owned by Russia’s oil giant Rosneft, prompted the facility to halt the intake of crude oil, a source with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Monday. The Saratov Refinery in the Volga region has the capacity to process 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude, but it has now been forced offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes. The refinery has become the third Russian crude processing facility to have been damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes so far in August. The halt to three major refineries would mean that Russia will see lower domestic gasoline and diesel supply while it will have more crude available for export as it doesn’t have too much storage for the unprocessed crude.

Ukraine Strikes Russia's Largest Crude Export Pumping Station Near Border - Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence in coordination with the military have claimed a direct major hit on yet another site within Russia's oil infrastructure: a key oil-pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline located in Unecha, Bryansk Oblast.The overnight strike reportedly caused a fire in the facility’s line production and dispatch control center, resulting in Russian emergency servies rushing to the scene, in a southern border area.This hub of Russia's crude exporting pipelines was scene of a series of explosions and large fire. In all during the attack there was a broader, and what's become typical, assault which saw Russia down 46 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) overnight. Russia's ministry of defense tallied "15 over the territory of the Bryansk region, 11 over the territory of the Volgograd region, 7 over the territory of the Rostov region, 5 over the territory of the Krasnodar region, 2 over the territory of the Belgorod region, 2 over the territory of the Voronezh region, 2 over the territory of the Republic of Crimea, 2 over the waters of the Sea of Azov."Unecha is the main hub in the Druzhba pipeline network and is operated by the Transnefteprodukt holding, with the site facilitating oil transportation across a pipeline system spanning over 5,500 miles. Kiev sees it as playing a critical role in fueling Russia’s military-industrial sector, hence it being targeted.This isn't the first attack on this facility, as regional reports say that on August 6 a similar drone strike caused a smaller fire.Just days ago, a Russian oil refinery in Saratov which is owned Rosneft halted all crude oil intake after suffering a significant drone strike. The war on each other's energy infrastructure has grown hotter than ever, after President Trump early in his administration got the sides to agree to a short-lived 'energy truce'. That's clearly no more.Meanwhile Russia's Foreign Minister has lambasted Zelensky for the attacks, accusing him of keeping the war going, but which is really him against the Ukrainian people, according to spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

Air Defenses Drastically Expand Around Putin Residence Where Rumored Girlfriend, Sons Live -- Various media reports in Europe as well as US state-funded publications have observed and reported on an unusually high number of air defense systems around President Vladimir Putin’s secluded Valdai residence.RFE/RL affiliate Radio Svoboda has claimed that's were Putin's girlfriend and their children live, according to a new investigation. "Satellite images and photos from the Yandex.Zerkala mapping service show at least 12 Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems, many mounted on elevated towers, encircling the compound known as Uzhin," the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times writes of the report.Only two such units had been publicly and visually identified in the area before the new satellite imaging and mapping analysis. "By comparison, in the Moscow metropolitan region, home to more than 20 million people, authorities have positioned around 60 such systems since the start of the war in Ukraine — just five times more than the number protecting the Valdai site," Moscow Times continues. So if it is accurate that at least a dozen Pantsirs are now protecting Putin's residence alone, this is indeed a signifcant build-up and density of anti-air units protecting a single high value location.

IDF Chief Says He's Approved Plans for the 'Conquest of Gaza' – -- IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said on Wednesday that the Israeli military has approved plans for the “conquest” of Gaza as Israel is planning a significant escalation of its genocidal war. “This morning, we approved plans for the conquest of Gaza, and now we are in Lebanon. At the same time, we are operating in Syria, Yemen, Judea and Samaria (West Bank), and monitoring events in Iran. We are in a multifront war,” Zamir said during a visit to an Israeli occupation outpost in southern Lebanon, according to The Times of Israel.Zamir has been at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his plans to escalate in Gaza, as the IDF has been warning that it will take heavy casualties and that the remaining Israeli captives in Gaza could be killed in the offensive.According to Israeli media, the message Netanyahu and his allies have sent to Zamir is that he had better approve the plans to take over Gaza or resign, and Netanyahu favors the total takeover of Gaza even if it means the Israeli captives could be harmed or killed.Last week, the Israeli cabinet approved plans for the Israeli takeover of Gaza City. It’s unclear from Zamir’s comments if he meant the IDF has finalized plans for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip or if it remains limited to Gaza City.President Trump has made clear that he will back Israel no matter what it plans to do in Gaza, despite the fact that Palestinian civilians are now starving to death every day due to the Israeli siege, and the humanitarian situation will only get worse as Israel escalates.When asked last week if he supports the idea of the full Israeli occupation of Israel, Trump said it was “pretty much up to Israel.” Israel relies on US military aid to sustain its genocidal war in Gaza, meaning it needs US backing to escalate.

Germany Halts Weapons Exports to Israel That Could Be Used in Gaza Over Netanyahu's Plans To Escalate - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday that Berlin was halting the export of military equipment that Israel could use in Gaza “until further notice,” a step that came in response to the Israeli cabinet approving plans to significantly escalate Israel’s genocidal war with the goal of taking over Gaza City.“The even harsher military action by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip, approved by the Israeli Cabinet last night, makes it increasingly difficult for the German government to see how these goals will be achieved,” the German leader said. “Under these circumstances, the German government will not authorize any exports of military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip until further notice.”While Merz’s comments leave open the possibility of providing weapons to Israel that could be considered “defensive,” his announcement is significant since Germany is one of Israel’s strongest supporters and top arms suppliers, second only to the US.According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2019 to 2023, the US and Germany accounted for 99% of Israel’s arms imports, with the US providing 69% and Germany providing 30%.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a shot at Merz on Sunday, saying the German leader “buckled” due to pressure. “I think [Merz has] been a good friend of Israel, but I think he’s buckled under the pressure of false TV reports, the internal pressure from various groups,” Netanyahu said. Defending his decision on Sunday, Merz said he would still help Israel “defend itself” but that the German government couldn’t supply weapons that could be used in an offensive where hundreds of thousands of civilians could be killed.

Netanyahu Says He's 'Very Much' Attached to the Vision of 'Greater Israel' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that he considers himself to be on a “historic and spiritual mission” and that he is “very” connected to the idea of “Greater Israel,” a vision for significant Israeli territorial expansion in the region. In the modern political context, Greater Israel could refer to Israel taking complete control of Gaza, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights. But for more ideological Zionists, including members of Netanyahu’s government, Greater Israel means Israeli expansion into Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, based on a biblical interpretation.Netanyahu made the comments to Israel’s i24 when the interviewer gifted him an amulet showing “Greater Israel.” According to The Times of Israel, the amulet was not shown on camera, so it’s unclear how far it depicts Israel’s territory extending. But the Israeli leader was asked if he felt a connection to the expansionist vision and answered, “very much.” Netanyahu has previously displayed maps that show the West Bank and Gaza as part of Israel, including when addressing the UN just weeks before October 7. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich caused controversy in 2023 when he spoke at an event that displayed a map of Greater Israel that included Jordan.

Smotrich Announces Major West Bank Settlement Expansion To 'Bury the Idea of a Palestinian State' - The Israeli government is moving forward with a plan for the massive expansion of illegal Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank that would cut off the northern part of the Palestinian territory from its southern regions, a plan Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said will “bury the idea of a Palestinian state.”Smotrich, who also holds a position in the Defense Ministry that allows him to expand settlements, announced that he plans to approve the construction of 3,401 housing units for the controversial E1 settlement project, which has been frozen for decades due to international opposition.“They will talk about a Palestinian dream, and we will continue to build a Jewish reality,” Smotrich said at a press conference at the site of the planned construction. “This reality is what will permanently bury the idea of a Palestinian state, because there is nothing to recognize and no one to recognize.”

Report: Israel in Talks About the Possibility of Moving Palestinians in Gaza to South Sudan - Israel is in talks with South Sudan about the possibility of moving Palestinians in Gaza into the East African country, The Associated Press reported on Tuesday.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have been open about theirdesire for the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population of Gaza, but so far, they haven’t found any countries willing to accept a large number of refugees.Netanyahu has framed the idea as “voluntary migration,” but the destruction of Gaza and the threat of being killed by the Israeli military or by starvation due to the Israeli blockade make it a forced displacement. In an interview on Tuesday, the Israeli leader said he would “allow” Palestinians in Gaza to leave. “Give them the opportunity to leave, first of all, combat zones, and generally to leave the territory, if they want,” Netanyahu said. The AP report cited several sources, including Joe Szlavik, the founder of a US lobbying group working with South Sudan. He said South Sudanese officials have briefed him on the talks and that Israeli officials planned to visit South Sudan to look into the possibility of setting up camps for Palestinians there, but no date has been set. Szlavik said South Sudan is looking for the US to lift a travel ban on the country and to lift sanctions on senior US officials, meaning the US could have ways to provide incentives to the country to help facilitate the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Relocating Palestinians to South Sudan would mean sending them to another region that’s alsograppling with a severe hunger crisis. The threat of the country plunging into another civil war also looms, and South Sudan is already taking in an influx of refugees due to the conflict with neighboring Sudan. The AP previously reported that there were similar talks on moving Palestinians to Sudan despite the raging civil war there and Somalia, another war-torn nation. Axios reported last month that the head of the Israeli Mossad, David Barnea, visited Washington looking for help convincing other countries to take in Palestinians. That report said Israel has been speaking with Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Libya about the possibility.

South Sudan Rejects Report That It's in Talks With Israel About Taking in Palestinians from Gaza - On Wednesday, South Sudan rejected a report from The Associated Press that said it was in talks with Israel about the possibility of taking in Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, calling the claim “baseless.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have been clear that theirultimate goal for Gaza is the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population. But so far, no country has publicly expressed interest in helping facilitate that goal by taking in a large number of Palestinians.South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry said that the country “firmly refutes recent media reports claiming that the Government of the Republic of South Sudan is engaged in discussion with the State of Israel regarding the resettlement of Palestinian Nationals from Gaza in South Sudan.” The Foreign Ministry said that the “claims are baseless and do not reflect the official position or policy of the Government of the Republic of South Sudan.” The AP report cited multiple sources, including Joe Szlavik, the head of a US lobbying group, who said he’s been hired to improve South Sudan’s relations with the US. Szlavik claimed that Israeli officials were planning to visit South Sudan to discuss the possibility of building camps for Palestinians in the country, but he said no date was set. Several other countries have been reported to be in talks about the possibility of taking in Palestinians from Gaza, including Somalia, Sudan, Libya, Indonesia, and Ethiopia, but none have confirmed their interest in the idea. Any plan to forcibly relocate Palestinians would likely include incentives from the US.Netanyahu has framed his vision for ethnic cleansing as “voluntary migration,” but the destruction of Gaza and the threat of being killed by the Israeli military or by starvation due to the Israeli blockade make it a forced displacement. In an interview on Tuesday, the Israeli leader said he would “allow” Palestinians in Gaza to leave.

Israeli Strike on Tent in Gaza Kills Five Al Jazeera Journalists - An Israeli airstrike on Sunday night targeted a tent outside the gates of the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and killed five Al Jazeera journalists, including 28-year-old Anas al-Sharif, a well-known reporter who had a large following on X.Al Jazeera said that the other four journalists killed in the bombing were correspondent Mohammed Qreiqeh and three cameramen: Ibrahim Zaher, Mohammed Noufal, and Moamen Aliwa. Two other people were also killed in the bombing.Just minutes before he was killed, al-Sharif said in a post on X that Israel was escalating its bombing of Gaza City. “Relentless bombardment,” he wrote. “For two hours, the Israeli aggression has intensified on Gaza City.”The Israeli military acknowledged that it deliberately targeted al-Sharif, claiming without evidence that he was a “Hamas terrorist” who “posed as an Al Jazeera journalist.” Last month, the Committee to Protect Journalists issued a warning about the Israeli military’s smears against Sharif, saying it was likely a precursor to his assassination.“We are deeply alarmed by the repeated threats made by Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee against Al Jazeera’s Gaza correspondent Anas al-Sharif and call on the international community to protect him,” said CPJ Regional Director Sara Qudah.“This is not the first time Al-Sharif has been targeted by the Israeli military, but the danger to his life is now acute. Israel has killed at least six Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza during this war. These latest unfounded accusations represent an effort to manufacture consent to kill al-Sharif,” Qudah added.In a post on X at the time, al-Sharif responded to the Israeli smears against him. “I reaffirm: I, Anas al-Sharif, am a journalist with no political affiliations. My only mission is to report the truth from the ground — as it is, without bias,” he said. “At a time when a deadly famine is ravaging Gaza, speaking the truth has become, in the eyes of the occupation, a threat.”Al-Sharif left behind a wife and two young children. “Do not forget Gaza,” al-Sharif said in a statement he asked to have released if he were killed. “And do not forget me in your sincere prayers for forgiveness and acceptance.”

Israel murders 6 journalists, as Netanyahu says annexation of Gaza will proceed “swiftly”- On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel would move to “evacuate” and seize Gaza City “fairly quickly” and “complete the job.” These statements coincided with an Israeli airstrike that deliberately killed six journalists in Gaza City aimed at silencing coverage of war crimes being carried out against the Palestinian population. Speaking after a meeting of Israel’s security cabinet, Netanyahu defended the approved plan that envisions the forced removal of all Palestinians from Gaza City and surrounding refugee camps in the central part of the Strip. According to reports in the Washington Post, the prime minister presented the scheme as a matter of national security, insisting that Israel will ultimately “assume paramount security responsibility for Gaza” while transferring day-to-day governance to what he described as “an unspecified third party that will neither be Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.” He framed the operation as an urgent military necessity, declaring that “Israel will act swiftly” to carry it out. In characteristic Orwellian language, Netanyahu said the plan was not a permanent annexation and claimed, “We don’t want to govern it … we want a security administration. The goal is not to occupy Gaza.” These formulations are belied by the measures being discussed. As Reuters reported, military officials have already outlined a campaign for complete military dominance over the remaining 25 percent of Gaza not yet under direct Israeli control. The Washington Post quoted Israeli sources acknowledging that, in practice, the plan means the mass removal of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians—driven into what are effectively concentration camps near the Egyptian border—coupled with a long-term Israeli security presence. The New York Times, citing members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, said the objective is to displace some 800,000 civilians within the next two months, stripping Gaza City and central refugee camps of their remaining population. The security cabinet’s schedule says full-scale operations begin imminently and conclude with the evacuation by early October, with military policing of the emptied areas to follow. As the details of this deportation plan were being finalized, Israeli warplanes unleashed an intentional strike on a tent camp used by Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza City. Al Jazeera’s newsroom confirmed the killing of five of its employees: senior correspondent Anas al-Sharif, 32; correspondent Mohammed Qreiqeh, 28; camera operator Ibrahim Zaher, 27; camera operator Mohammed Noufal, 29; and technician and fixer Youssef Abu Odeh, 22. Two other individuals were also killed in the Israeli air strike, at least one of whom was also a journalist, but their identities have not been published. According to eyewitnesses and colleagues, they had been working and sleeping in a clearly marked tent near an area with no ongoing firefights at the time of the attack. Multiple journalists on the ground stated that there was no doubt the strike was deliberate, as the tent was isolated and had been in the same spot for weeks. The government media office in Gaza condemned the attack as “a massacre of the press corps,” noting that the bombing brought the total number of journalists killed by Israel in Gaza since October 2023 to 237. Al Jazeera’s statement accused Israel of targeting its reporters because they were documenting the reality of the war, including the mass displacement and starvation of civilians.

Targeted killing of journalists in Gaza sends chilling message | PBS News --Israel’s targeted killing of an Al Jazeera correspondent in Gaza over the weekend was noteworthy even for a conflict remarkably blood-soaked for journalists, leaving some experts to marvel that any news at all emerges from the territory. An Al Jazeera executive said Monday that it won’t back down from covering what is going on there and called for news organizations to step up and recruit more journalists. A total of 184 Palestinian journalists and media workers have been killed by Israel in the Gaza war since its start in October 2023, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. That compares to the 18 journalists and media workers killed so far in the Russia-Ukraine war, CPJ said. Aside from rare guided tours, Israel has barred international media from covering the 22-month war in Gaza. News organizations instead rely largely on Palestinian Gaza residents and ingenuity to show the world what is happening there. Israel often questions the affiliations and biases of Palestinian journalists but doesn’t permit others in. Correspondent Anas al-Sharif knew he was a target, and left behind a message to be delivered upon his death. He and seven other people — six of them journalists — were killed in an air strike outside of Gaza City’s largest hospital complex on Sunday. Israel swiftly claimed responsibility, saying without producing evidence that al-Sharif had led a Hamas cell. It was a claim the news organization and al-Sharif had denied. Agence France-Presse, The Associated Press, BBC News and Reuters are among the organizations regularly reporting from Gaza. An Aug. 7 AP dispatch vividly described the hunger faced by many in Gaza: Other recent AP reports carried images and text reporting from the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Gaza’s only Catholic church, and a profile of an 18-year-old aspiring doctor now trying to survive sheltered in a tent.Journalists from The Washington Post and the Guardian recently accompanied a Jordanian relief mission and took images of Gaza from the air, despite some restrictions from Israel. The Guardian’s Lorenzo Tondo wrote: “Seen from the air, Gaza looks like the ruins of an ancient civilization, brought to light after centuries of darkness.”None of the organizations match the power and immediacy of Al Jazeera, however, in part because their correspondents have been in front of cameras. They’ve also paid the heaviest price: CPJ estimates that 11 journalists and media workers affiliated with AJ have been killed in the Gaza conflict, more than any other single organization.In a social media post written in June to be sent if he was killed, al-Sharif wrote that “I have lived through pain in all its details, tasted suffering and loss many times, yet I never once hesitated to convey the truth as it is, without distortion or falsification — so that Allah may bear witness against those who stayed silent.”In another posting on X on Aug. 10, the day that he was killed, al-Sharif wrote of the challenges covering the aftermath of one attack. He said he lost his strength and ability to express himself when he arrived at the scene. “Body parts and blood were all around us, and corpses were scattered on top of each other,” he wrote. “Tell me what words and phrases could help any journalist describe this horrific image. When I told you on air that it was an ‘indescribable scene,’ I was truly helpless in the face of this horrific sight.”

Italian Defense Minister Says Israeli Government Has Lost Its 'Reason and Humanity' Over Gaza - Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview published on Monday that the Israeli government has lost its “reason and humanity” as European countries continue to step up criticism of Israel in response to its genocidal war in the Gaza Strip and its plans to escalate.“What is happening is unacceptable. We are not facing a military operation with collateral damage, but the pure denial of the law and the founding values of our civilization,” Crosetto told La Stampa. “We are committed to humanitarian aid, but we must now find a way to force Netanyahu to think clearly, beyond condemnation.”When asked about the potential for international sanctions against Israel, Crosetto said that “the occupation of Gaza and some serious acts in the West Bank mark a qualitative leap, in the face of which decisions must be made that force Netanyahu to think.”The Italian minister said that any action taken against Israel would target its government and not its people. “And it wouldn’t be a move against Israel, but a way to save that people from a government which has lost reason and humanity,” he said.“We must always distinguish governments from states and peoples, as well as from the religions they profess. This applies for Netanyahu, and it applies to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, whose methods, by now, have become dangerously similar,” Crosetto added. Italy was one of the first European countries to restrict arms exports to Israel in response to military operations in Gaza, though Italian officials have said they were still fulfilling pre-October 7 weapons deals. “After the start of [Israeli military] operations in Gaza, the government immediately suspended all new export licenses, and all agreements signed after October 7 were not implemented,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in October 2024.Germany recently announced that it would stop exporting weapons to Israel that could be used in Gaza, which is significant since Berlin is one of Israel’s biggest arms suppliers, second only to the US. So far, the only European country that has announced it was halting all weapons trade with Israel is Slovenia.

Stopping The Gaza Holocaust Is The First Step Toward A Healthy World - Caitlin Johnstone --Nicole on Facebook writes, “I would love to hear you explain how Palestine is the moral question of our time. Why it’s so important. How it’s related to every movement and should be a concern to everyone.” Palestine is the moral question of our time because the abuse of the Palestinians is the most glaring, in-your-face symptom of the imperial disease. You can see the effects of so many of the empire’s abusive dynamics in how this thing is playing out, from racism to colonialism to militarism to war profiteering to mass media propaganda to empire-building to government corruption to suppression of free speech to ecocide to the heartless, mindless, soul-eating nature of the capitalist system under which we all live. But there’s more to it than that. The primary reason to place Palestine front and center as the moral issue of our time is because if we can’t sort out the morality of an active genocide backed by our own western governments, we’re not going to be able to sort out anything else. Stopping the Gaza holocaust and bringing justice to the Palestinians is the very first step toward a healthy civilization. Palestine is the moral issue of our time for the same reason if you saw someone in your family torturing another member of your family to death, it would be the most urgent matter happening in your life at that moment. You’d have other problems in your life, but that would come first. If we’re the sort of society that would allow a live-streamed genocide to take place with the support of our own government and its allies, then we’re not the sort of society that can steer away from its trajectory toward dystopia and armageddon. If you’re the sort of individual who would allow a live-streamed genocide to take place with the support of your own government and its allies, then you’re not the sort of individual who can help steer our species away from disaster. Gaza is not the only thing that matters in the world. But if you’re not forcefully opposing the Gaza holocaust, you definitely don’t have a healthy enough conscience to address any of the world’s other problems. I sometimes see Israel supporters refer to pro-Palestine sentiment as “virtue signaling”, which is funny because it means they view themselves as holding the unpopular, unvirtuous position. But really there’s nothing particularly virtuous about supporting Gaza, and it’s not some cool, special thing you’d want to signal about yourself. It’s just what you do when you’re not an extremely shitty person. It’s the basic, bare-minimum expectation of normal human morality. I don’t want to be friends with anyone who doesn’t oppose the Gaza holocaust. I don’t want to follow any commentators or analysts who don’t speak out against the Gaza holocaust. At this point I don’t even want to listen to any music or read any poetry from people who don’t take a stand against the Gaza holocaust. Since 2023 I’ve moved from rejecting anyone who actively sided with Israel to rejecting anyone who is even complicit in their silence. The other day I saw some Australian influencer forcefully trying to assert that it’s okay not to take a position on Gaza, and nobody in her replies was buying it. Supporting Israel and aligning with US foreign policy comes with a lot of career benefits for high-profile individuals, and you don’t get to both enjoy those perks and also keep ethical people interested in what you have to say. You can’t have it both ways. You have to choose between the perks and the people. You actually do. Opposition to the Gaza holocaust is the very first step in assessing if someone is worth my time. If you can’t even meet the basic, bare-minimum expectation of opposing an active genocide, then you are too callous and apathetic to be my friend. If you can’t even get this basic, kindergarten-level moral question right, then your mind is too shallow and your heart too hardened for me to be interested in your analysis, your ideas, or your art. There are so many terrible things in our world, and there is so much work that needs to be done to address them. I don’t know what ideas, strategies and movements will get us out of this mess, but I do know that if any are going to emerge they’re going to come from the people who’ve been taking a strong stand against Israel and its western allies these last two years. Those are the individuals, movements, and political factions to pay attention to going forward. Nobody else is equipped to help.

Focus on Fracking

Monday, August 18, 2025

oil price hit a 10 week low; natural gas hit a 40 week low; second highest refinery utilization rate in six years

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