US oil prices finished the week higher for the fourth time in five weeks after Iran suspended its cooperation with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency….after falling 11.3% to $65.52 a barrel last week after Trump announced, and then imposed, a cease-fire on Israel and Iran, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for August delivery fell in Asian trading on Monday, as traders weighed easing Middle East risks and a possible OPEC+ output increase in August, then steadied Monday morning in New York to trade near $65.44, after shedding the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Israel-Iran war and associated fears of a wider escalation which would affect oil supplies in the region, and then traded in a narrow range during the remainder of the session and settled down 41 cents at $65.11 a barrel, as an easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the prospect of another OPEC+ output hike in August boosted the supply outlook…oil prices edged higher on global markets early Tuesday, with traders awaiting more news on potential US trade deals ahead of the latest OPEC+ output meeting, then continued to stay within their recent trading range during the US session, as traders awaited the OPEC+ decision on July 6th. and any progress on trade talks between the U.S. and its trading partners ahead of the July 9th deadline, when reciprocal tariffs were expected to take effect, and settled 34 cents higher at $65.45 a barrel on signs of strong demand even while trading cautiously ahead of the OPEC+ meeting….global oil markets saw renewed volatility early on Wednesday, with crude prices edging lower amid rising unease over US economic signals, including trade policy uncertainty, inflation risks, and softening energy demand from the world’s top oil consumer, but rebounded early in New York following an overnight report of a big draw from the Cushing Oklahoma oil hub, then rallied higher on the news that the U.S. and Vietnam had stuck a trade agreement that sets 20% tariffs on many of the Southeast Asian country’s exports, and then jumped to settle $2.00 or 3% higher after Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, even as a surprise build in U.S. crude supplies limited price gains somewhat….however, oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday, reversing sharp gains from the prior session, reacting to data showing an unexpected build in U.S. inventories, raising concerns over sluggish fuel demand, then declined further in US trading after Axios reported the US plans to restart nuclear talks with Iran, reducing the risk of another flare-up in the Middle East conflict, and settled 45 cents lower at $67.00 a barrel in thin trade on the eve of the holiday, as traders worried that U.S. tariffs would slow energy demand ahead of an expected supply boost by major OPEC crude producers….oil prices held steady in Asian trading on Friday as a stronger-than-expected US jobs report bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, while market participants awaited further clarity on President Trump's upcoming tariff measures, then slipped on broader global markets as signals of renewed nuclear diplomacy between the United States and Iran, expectations of increased OPEC+ output, and concerns over US trade policy combined to ease supply fears, and settled 50 cents lower in thin holiday trading, as the market looked ahead to this weekend's OPEC+ meeting and the likelihood that member countries would decide to raise output, but still ended 1.5% higher for the week….
on the other hand, natural gas prices finished lower a third time in four weeks as another larger than expected injection of gas into storage during last week's heatwave indicated increased competition from other energy sources for power generation….after falling 5.3% to $3.739 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for the heatwave to break soon, and on a larger than expected injection of gas into storage, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for August delivery opened 21.4 cents lower on Monday, as stout storage levels and unimpressive cooling demand forecasts sent the contract lower throughout the day to settle 28.3 cents or 7.6% lower at $3.456 per mmBTU, on worries that the summer heat might not be packing the same punch for gas power burns as usual, as the fuel faced increased competition from other energy sources…despite elevated cooling demand, natural gas prices opened 9.5 cents lower on Tuesday, as production remained steady and cooler temperatures were forecast on the horizon, but mounted a steady recovery after hitting an intraday low of $3.293 at 10:15AM to settle just 4.1 cents lower at $3.415 per mmBTU, floundering in the red amid strong supply and an uneven demand outlook…however, August gas opened 4.7 cents higher on Wednesday, as the contract had crossed into oversold territory, and held onto the early gains to settle 7.3 cents higher at $3.488 per mmBTU, as bears backed off ahead of what was expected to be a seasonally light storage build that could halt a swelling of surpluses for the first time since April….but natural gas prices turned lower again early Thursday, pressured by a storage injection that surprised to the upside, and by outlooks for the next two reports to show larger builds amid seasonal weather, and gave up Wednesday’s gains to settle 7.9 cents lower at $3.409 per mmBTU, after a heavier-than-expected storage build pointed to solar and coal generation stealing market share from natural gas during last week’s record-breaking heat. and left natural gas prices down 8.8% for the week…
The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending June 27th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 55 billion cubic feet to 2,953 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 176 billion cubic feet, or 5.6% below the 3,129 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on June 27th of last year, but 173 billion cubic feet, or 6.2% more than the five-year average of 2,780 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 27th of June over the most recent five years….the 55 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was somewhat more than the 46 billion cubic foot addition to storage that the market was expecting ahead of the report, and was significantly more than the 35 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, but was still less than the average 61 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late June week over the past five years…
The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 27th indicated that after a big increase in our oil imports and a near record drop in our oil exports, we again had to withdraw oil from our stored crude supplies for the ninth time in twenty-one weeks, and for the 30th time in fifty-one weeks, in spite of an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 976,000 barrels per day to average 6,919,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 439,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 1,966,000 barrels per day to average 2,305,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 4,614,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending June 27th, an average of 2,941,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 625,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 2,000 barrels per day lower at 13,433,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 18,672,000 barrels per day during the June 27th reporting week…
Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 17,105,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 27th, an average of 118,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 583,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending June 27th averaged a rounded 984,000 barrels per day more than what what was added to storage plus what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -984,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 453,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,437,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are nonsense…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)
This week’s rounded 583,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 549,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 34,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the seventy-eighth SPR increase in the past eighty-eight weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,136,000 barrels per day last week, which was 13.9% less than the 7,129,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 2,000 barrels per day lower at 13,433,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 10,000 barrels per day higher at 13,020,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 12,000 barrels per day lower at 413,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.5% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also up 38.5% from the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.
US oil refineries were operating at 94.9% of their capacity while processing those 17,105,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending June 27th, up from their 94.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, and the highest utilization rate since July 5th of last year…. the 17,105,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.9% more than the 16,792,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending June 28th of 2024, but were 1.1% less than the 17,290,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending June 28th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 94.2%, close to normal for this time of year…
Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was a bit lower, decreasing by 491,000 barrels per day to 9,621,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 27th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 8,000 barrels per day to a 32 week high during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 4.4% less than the 10,061,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending June 28th of last year, and 3.3% less than the gasoline production of 9,948,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending June 28th, 2019….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 245,000 barrels per day to 5,034,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 185,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even with that production increase, our distillates output was 1.4% less than the 5,106,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending June 28th of 2024, and 5.7% less than the 5,336,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending June 28th, 2019…
Even with this week’s significant decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the seventh time in eighteen weeks, increasing by 4,188,000 barrels to 232,126,000 barrels during the week ending June 27th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 2,075,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 1,048,000 barrels per day to 8,640,000 barrels per day, and even though our imports of gasoline fell by 101,000 barrels per day to 906,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 20,000 barrels per day to 783,000 barrels per day….Even after fourteen gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past twenty weeks, our gasoline supplies were 1.9% higher than last June 28th’s gasoline inventories of 231,672,000 barrels, but were about 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…
Even with the big increase in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 16th time in 26 weeks, decreasing by 1,710,000 barrels to 103,622,000 barrels during the week ending June 27th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 4,066,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 249,000 to a five month high of 4,043,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 296,000 barrels per to 1,353,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates rose by 45,000 barrels per day to 118,000 barrels per day...After 45 inventory withdrawals over the past 75 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 13.5% below the 119,728,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on June 28th of 2024, and are now about 21% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…
Finally, after the drop in our oil exports and the big increase in our oil imports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, decreasing by 5,836,000 barrels over the week, from 420,942,000 barrels on June 27th to 415,106,000 barrels on June 20th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 5,836,000,000 barrels over the prior week… After that increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still 9% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 18% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the last weekend of June over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this June 27th were 6.6% below the 448,539,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on June 28th of 2024, and 7.3% less than the 452,182,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on June 30th of 2023, but were 0.8% more than the 415,566,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on June 24th of 2022…
This Week’s Rig Count
The US rig count decreased by eight during the six day period ending July 3rd, the fourteenth decrease in sixteen weeks, as seven rigs targeting oil and one rig targeting natural gas were removed...the 125 oil directed rigs that remained was the lowest oil rig count since September 2021…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of July 3rd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (June 27th) and this week’s (July 3rd) count, the third column shows last week’s June 27th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 5th of July, 2024…
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Fox Tank Company making $7.9M investment in Coshocton County -Fox Tank Company, a Texas-based leading provider of steel storage tanks and pressurized separation vessels for the oil and gas industry, is proud to announce the expansion of its manufacturing operation to the state of Ohio to accommodate its rapidly growing customer base in the Appalachian Basin region. In collaboration with JobsOhio, Ohio Southeast Economic Development (OhioSE), Ohio Department of Development, and the Coshocton County Port Authority, the company announced an investment of $7.9 million to establish operations in Coshocton, creating 89 new jobs. “Ohio’s central location to oil and gas industry customers and its exceptional manufacturing talent gave us the strategic advantage to attract Fox Tank Company’s first Ohio investment,” said Ohio Governor Mike DeWine. “The Coshocton community and existing infrastructure were an ideal match for Fox Tank.” A family-owned business, Fox Tank Company is a leading manufacturer of steel storage tanks and equipment for the oil and gas industry, specializing in API-grade tanks for upstream and midstream operations. The company was founded in 1979 in Kerrville, Texas. “With one of the largest manufacturing workforces in the nation, Ohio stands ready to quickly support Fox Tank Company’s first facility in the state, which will be within the Marcellus and Utica Shale regions,” said JobsOhio President and CEO J.P. Nauseef. “Eastern Ohio’s proven talent will help Fox Tank continue its 50-year tradition of serving the oil and gas industry with quality products.” Known for its quality craftsmanship and quick turnaround times, Fox Tank serves clients across the U.S. and has a reputation for reliability, safety, and customer service. “The expansion comes in response to the increasing demand for Fox Tank’s equipment from customers producing oil and natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations covering Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Eastern Ohio,” said R. Nathan Fox, CEO of Fox Tank Company. “This strategic move will create many new jobs in Coshocton and the surrounding area and further solidify Fox Tank Company’s position as a key economic driver in the region. The expansion also allows FTC to better serve our customers, both established and new, with faster delivery times, lower freight rates and enhanced support.” With this investment, Fox Tank plans to lease a facility in Coshocton and capitalize on its strategic location in the growing Marcellus and Utica Shale region where it can serve customers in the upstream and midstream sectors of the oil and gas industry. The project was supported by a $450,000 JobsOhio Grant and a Job Creation Tax Credit from the Ohio Tax Credit Authority.
EIA Report Shows Marcellus Proved Gas Reserves Dropped 5.9% in 2023 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyzed proved reserves data for 2023 (the most recent year available) and determined that proved reserves of U.S. natural gas decreased 12.6% year over year, from 691.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) to 603.6 Tcf. This was the first annual decrease in U.S. natural gas reserves since 2020. Looking at the numbers for Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, natural gas proved reserves decreased by 4% (PA), 13% (OH), and 6% (WV) from 2022 to 2023. The report shows that Marcellus gas reserves dropped 5.9% in 2023.
Upper Burrell Plans to Block Injection Wells with New Policy -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Upper Burrell (Westmoreland County, PA) town supervisors have historically been receptive (or at least tolerant) to the Marcellus Shale industry that has so blessed their town and Westmoreland County. But attitudes seemed to change last December, at least with respect to wastewater injection wells (see Upper Burrell Twp Makes Moves to Ban Wastewater Injection Wells). The town’s Board of Supervisors instructed the town solicitor to draft an ordinance with stricter rules for the use of abandoned wells in the township. At a board meeting on Wednesday, members of the community (Big Green shills?) lectured the supervisors that the proposed draft needs tightening to ensure absolutely no new injection wells are possible in the town.
Do Landowners Get Money for Lithium Extracted from Wastewater? -- Marcellus Drilling News - Lithium extracted from Marcellus shale wastewater (brine) has been in the news over the past week or so. Last week, we brought you the exciting news that a Boston-based company, Gradiant, is working on building a lithium production facility in an undisclosed PA location, which we were able to identify as Susquehanna County (see Integrated Lithium Production Plant Coming to PA Marcellus in 2026). Two days later we brought you the news that Vancouver-based Rain City Resources Inc. is already testing lithium-from-brine technology at a different facility in Susquehanna County (see Successful Lithium-from-Brine Pilot Test in Susquehanna County, PA). The news has sparked a flurry of inquiries to MDN asking this question: Will landowners receive compensation for wastewater sales that contain lithium?
FERC, Other Federal Agencies Dump NEPA Regs on Global Warming - Marcellus Drilling News - We are finally seeing a return to sanity and real science following four years of out-of-control edicts during the Biden autopen administration. (The old fool likely didn’t even know a tenth of the things signed under his name.) On Monday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), along with the Departments of Agriculture, Energy, the Interior, and Transportation, revised regulations to eliminate all references to considering climate change, environmental justice, and other so-called environmental issues in their permit reviews. The left under Biden had introduced such nonsense in a bid to block new fossil energy projects. No more! The pendulum has swung back to the common-sense middle.
U.S. Natural Gas Giants Eye New Appalachia Pipelines | OilPrice.com Rising demand for natural gas in the United States and a supportive administration are prompting U.S. natural gas producers and pipeline giants to begin to actively consider proposing new pipelines to bring more gas supply from America’s top gas-producing region, Appalachia, to consumers.“We are actively evaluating opportunities to expand infrastructure,” Amy Rogers, a spokeswoman for one of the top U.S. natural gas producers, EQT, told Reuters.“Enhancing pipeline capacity is essential to unlocking Appalachian supply,” Rogers added. EQT’s chief executive officer, Toby Rice, said in West Virginia as early as in March that more natural gas pipelines are coming in the Appalachia region, to meet growing demand from data centers and coal retirements. “So we’ve got to get serious about this, and these data center opportunities in our state are they’re the reasons for us to get started and start building back and capturing some of the lost time that we had,” Rice said at a meeting attended by West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey, as carried by West Virginia Public Broadcasting. Other producers and pipeline giants, including Williams Cos and DT Midstream, have also proposed new or expanded pipeline capacity in the Appalachia region and in the Northeast. Lat year, the Appalachia region remained the nation’s top-producing region, accounting for 31%, or 35.6 Bcf/d, of marketed natural gas production in the United States, EIA data showed. However, production growth in the Appalachia has been slowing in recent years because of limited pipeline takeaway capacity to transport natural gas to demand markets, the administration noted. Appalachian production rose slightly by only 0.1%, or 0.50 million cubic feet per day, in 2024. Yet, the United States last year added the most pipeline takeaway capacity from natural gas-producing regions since 2021. This year, more gas pipelines could be announced or revived, with the support of the Trump Administration, in what could be a shot in the arm for U.S. natural gas producers and a step toward reducing energy costs for consumers, especially in the Northeast.
Trump Policies Spark Renewed Interest in Appalachian Gas Pipelines - U.S. energy companies are eyeing a resurgence in natural gas pipeline construction in the Appalachian shale formations, fueled by President Donald Trump's pro-energy policies and an anticipated surge in demand. This move could unlock vast reserves in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, areas currently hampered by insufficient infrastructure, to meet the growing demand, which is expected to surge over the coming years. While the U.S. is the world's leading gas producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), many consumers in the Northeast still lack access to gas, relying instead on more expensive heating oil. The limited access to gas supplies is attributed to inadequate pipelines and past regulatory hurdles that have only made it challenging for the country to tap into the full potential of the nation's largest gas reserves: the Marcellus and Utica formations in Appalachia. Growth in the region, which accounts for roughly one-third of U.S. gas output, has stagnated as companies previously lost billions on delayed or canceled projects. However, with Trump's stated aim to roll back regulations to allow many energy projects to be implemented, firms including Williams Cos., Boardwalk Pipeline, DT Midstream, and EQT are now proposing new or expanded infrastructure in the Northeast. Amy Rogers, a spokeswoman for EQT, the nation's second-largest gas producer, emphasized the need for increased pipeline capacity to "unlock Appalachian supply," as the demand for gas is expected to climb, driven by new LNG export terminals and electric generation facilities powering artificial intelligence data centers. Analysts project U.S. power and gas demand to reach record highs in 2025 and 2026. While Appalachian output has grown since 2009, its pace slowed significantly between 2020 and 2024 due to pipeline constraints. The Trump administration's support has already led Williams to revive two previously canceled projects: the Constitution Pipeline to New York and the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) to New Jersey and New York. These projects are considered "essential" by Williams to address gas supply shortages in the Northeast, which have led to higher energy costs for consumers. During the 2024-2025 winter, heating with oil cost roughly twice as much as with gas in the region.
US energy firms eye new Northeast natgas pipelines, buoyed by Trump and demand outlook - (Reuters) -U.S. energy companies are eying renewed opportunities to build natural gas pipelines to tap in to Appalachia shale formations in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-energy policies and expectations that demand for the fuel will rise in coming years. The U.S. is already the world's top gas producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas. While the country helps meet fuel demand around the world, many consumers in the U.S. Northeast do not have access to gas due to a lack of pipeline infrastructure and instead continue to use heating oil in their homes and businesses. The Appalachia shale fields, which cover the Marcellus and Utica formations, have the largest gas reserves in the U.S., but energy companies have limited ability to move more of that fuel to the rest of the country because most existing pipelines are already near full. In addition, companies have found it tough to build new projects in the region due to legal and regulatory pushback from states and local and environmental groups. Output growth in the region, which produces about a third of the nation's gas, has stalled in recent years after some firms lost billions on delayed or canceled pipes. But now, as Trump rolls back regulations to boost domestic energy production, several U.S. firms, including Williams Cos, Boardwalk Pipeline, DT Midstream and EQT, have proposed building or expanding pipelines and other infrastructure in the Northeast. "We are actively evaluating opportunities to expand infrastructure," Amy Rogers, spokeswoman at EQT, the nation's second-biggest gas producer with operations in Appalachia, told Reuters. "Enhancing pipeline capacity is essential to unlocking Appalachian supply," she said. In 2024, the U.S. produced about 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas and consumed a record 90.5 bcfd of the fuel, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about 5 million U.S. homes for a day. Analysts expect that new LNG export plants and electric generation facilities to power artificial intelligence at data centers will push U.S. power and gas demand to record highs in 2025 and 2026 and beyond. Output from Appalachia has increased every year since at least 2009 when the region produced just 1.7 bcfd of gas. Lack of pipeline capacity, however, has slowed that growth to an average of just 2% a year from 2020 to 2024 versus an average of 15% a year from 2015 to 2019, according to EIA data.
8 Proposed Pipeline Projects to Carry Molecules From M-U Region -- Marcellus Drilling News - We’ve pointed out (for years) the relative success the anti-drilling left has had in blocking new pipeline projects to carry Marcellus/Utica molecules to other regions, stifling new drilling in our area as a result. Although it has been and will continue to be a challenge to build new pipeline projects, the Trump administration is making it easier. Trump’s policies encourage new pipelines and more access to natural gas. We spotted an article from Reuters that provides an overview of eight pipeline projects that are actively being pursued to carry M-U molecules to other regions. We’ve covered all of these projects in previous posts. The Reuters article compiles the most likely candidates for new pipeline projects into a single, convenient article. BOARDWALK PIPELINE PARTNERS | DT MIDSTREAM | ENERGY SERVICES | EQUITRANS/EQT MIDSTREAM | INDUSTRYWIDE ISSUES | TRANSCO | WILLIAMS
Other firms join Williams in seeking approval for more gas pipelines into the Northeast -Tulsa’s Williams company is not the only natural gas pipeline company wanting to resume efforts to build a natural gas supply into the country’s Northeast in light of President Trump’s encouragement by rolling back regulations. Among others expressing plans to expand or build p;ipelines in the Northeast are Boardwalk Pipeline, DT Midstream and EQT. All want to take advantage of the Appalachia shale formations in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. We’ve reported in recent months how the northeast part of the country lacks facilities to increase natural gas supplies and generate more electricity. Because some of those states banned natural gas use and would not allow pipeline construction, they are behind in the siting of data centers which instead chose Midwest locations because of the availability of natural gas for electric generation. Reuters reported the same thing this week, “While the country helps meet fuel demand around the world, many consumers in the U.S. Northeast do not have access to gas due to a lack of pipeline infrastructure and instead continue to use heating oil in their homes and businesses.”
Hochul faces pipeline test— Gov. Kathy Hochul faces a major decision on a new pipeline supported by President Donald Trump to bring more natural gas into the New York City region.The Department of Environmental Conservation declared the application for a water quality permit for the Northeast Supply Enhancement Project complete Wednesday. The pipeline would run 24 miles from New Jersey, across the Raritan Bay, to connect to the pipeline system in the Rockaways.The state told federal agencies last month it would make a decision on the project by Nov. 30, in compliance with an accelerated timeline under a Trump executive order. The DEC declined to schedule any public hearings at this stage, a move sure to spark pushback from environmental advocates.The department’s determination that the Williams Co. pipeline application is complete kicks the permitting process into high gear. The project faces staunch opposition from environmental groups, and the decision will test New York’s landmark 2019 climate law, which Hochul’s (D) administration has cited in denying permits for new gas power plants.
Venture Global Inches CP2 Toward FID With Another Supply Deal — Venture Global LNG Inc. has agreed to supply Petronas with 1 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG for 20 years from its CP2 project in Louisiana. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. The deal builds on another agreement between the companies for Petronas to purchase 1 Mt/y from Venture Global’s Plaquemines export plant that’s under construction in Louisiana. The latest deal comes as Venture Global is working toward a final investment decision (FID) for CP2. The company launched the FID process in March and has spent more than $4 billion on the facility to date. Early site work has also started and the company has signed agreements to sell 10.75 Mt/y of CP2’s first 14.4 Mt/y phase.
Venture Global Requests FERC Review as LNG Traffic Intensifies in Louisiana - As U.S. LNG developers continue to push a bevy of Louisiana export projects closer to the finish line, Venture Global LNG Inc. is seeking reassurance that increasing activity around its western Louisiana facility will not disrupt its natural gas shipments. The summer outlook for project final investment decisions (FID) has continued to heat up with a series of supply deals and equity agreements, sparking speculation about which company may be next to sanction an export facility. So far, two of a projected seven proposed projects with FIDs targeted for this year have launched successful financing. However, two additional projects – Venture’s CP2 and Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. LLC’s Commonwealth terminal – could reach FID within the next few months, according to the companies.
Golden Pass LNG Eyeing October Train 1 Start -- Golden Pass LNG could use imported LNG volumes to jumpstart commissioning activities at the Texas natural gas export project as soon as October. Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC has asked the U.S. Department of Energy for permission to re-export up to 50 Bcf of previously imported volumes for up to two years. The imported cargoes would be used to cool down equipment, an important part of the plant’s commissioning process as it works toward startup. Under the proposal, the company disclosed LNG volumes would be imported and stored at its existing storage tanks and could be either sold outside of the United States as LNG or re-gassified for the domestic market.
EOG Exec Keen on ‘Extremely Attractive’ Natural Gas, Pegging Long-Term Prices at $4.50 --EOG Resources Inc., which has staked out production zones across the Lower 48 and beyond, remains “extremely constructive” on the future of natural gas, according to COO Jeffery Leitzell. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot National Avg. daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. The EOG operating chief in June spoke at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power, Renewables and Mining Conference. He told the audience all signs are pointing up for global natural gas. More LNG capacity will be “coming on over the next couple of years, along with the power generation demand that’s going to be out there,” Leitzell said. “We see somewhere between 4% and 6% compound annual growth rate for natural gas demand through the rest of the decade. So it’s very robust.”
Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Slides Below $3.30 as Oversupply and Weak Demand Trigger Bearish Setup --Natural gas prices have collapsed nearly 20% from the recent $4.11 peak, with the NG=F futures contract tumbling to $3.30 by early July. The failure to sustain above $3.96—the 200-day moving average—has reaffirmed the market’s bearish tilt. Five straight failed tests of the $3.50–$3.60 zone and a rejection at $3.740 have carved a pattern of lower highs. These repeated breakdowns have pulled the futures below the 20-day Bollinger Band low of $3.465, increasing odds of a flush toward $3.00, and possibly $2.97, the November 2024 low. Inventories remain heavily stocked across the U.S. and Europe. U.S. storage injections continue to outpace five-year averages, while Europe’s LNG storage sits at 58%—well above seasonal norms. According to ANZ, LNG imports into Europe are tracking 41% above the 5-year seasonal average. These inventory builds come despite previously bullish catalysts—like the Middle East cease-fire—now neutralized, removing geopolitical premiums from pricing. Even the temporary spike in prices from the Israel-Iran de-escalation faded rapidly, with Brent falling back to $67.91 and WTI to $65.17. In Türkiye, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) announced a 24.6% increase in natural gas prices for households, effective July 2. While this suggests localized demand-side pricing pressure, it’s unlikely to offset the broader global glut. BOTAS also imposed a 7.86% hike on industrial consumers. These policy moves indicate an effort to manage domestic fiscal imbalances rather than reflect market-driven scarcity. Summer temperatures across the U.S. and India have been localized rather than widespread. National Weather Service data shows the intense heat dome that swept through the South in June is not expected to expand significantly into July. Cooling demand remains below average, and electricity consumption in key U.S. regions is tracking weaker than historical patterns. This lag in air conditioning usage has capped power-sector natural gas demand, undermining seasonal bull theses. Even with triple-digit temperatures hitting some U.S. cities, the patchy nature of the heat wave has failed to drive sustained drawdowns in gas reserves. Traders remain focused on the $3.45 support zone—if breached, technicals point to $3.00 or lower as the next major floor. Ongoing production growth further undermines natural gas pricing. OPEC+ approved another output hike of 411,000 bpd for August, while U.S. shale producers show no signs of restraint. LNG Canada has begun shipments, and Russian gas continues flowing through relaxed Syrian sanctions. These flows maintain high global availability despite subdued demand. Meanwhile, Colombia's Ecopetrol is expanding its Lorito field, adding LPG supply just as the U.S. begins monetizing excess gas from the Permian. These concurrent output expansions confirm the market's oversupply regime, regardless of occasional geopolitical events or policy headlines. The bullish triggers that spurred the $4.11 peak—weather, Middle East tension, and seasonal optimism—have eroded without delivering a fundamental demand shift. Volatility remains elevated as prompt-month contracts swing violently August Nymex gas futures fell 28.3 cents Monday to settle at $3.456/MMBtu. The gap between prompt contracts and spot pricing (which averages $3.225) shows continued volatility and market indecision. Daily trading ranges now exceed 5%, with trend signals weakening across all major indicators. Sideways chop between $3.610 and $3.830 dominates the landscape, and without a break above $3.96, the bearish trend remains intact.
Analyst Highlights August Natural Gas Contract 'Collapse' | Rigzone -- In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Tuesday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, highlighted a “collapse” in the August natural gas contract on Monday. The contract closed at $3.456 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday, which marked a 28.3 cent, or 7.6 percent drop, from the previous close, the report outlined. “Yesterday’s natural gas price implosion fully erased Friday’s gains, with strong supply readings, milder Week 3 weather (particularly in Texas and the Southeast), and ongoing Henry Hub spot market softness dragging down the curve,” Rubin said in the report. “LNG bright spots are beginning to emerge, however, with Corpus Christi nominations rising to match a facility high, and LNG Canada loading its first cargo. Early-cycle U.S. LNG demand readings are already 1.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) above the June average,” he added. “Critical support near $3.40 per MMBtu (last Thursday’s intraday low) may be determinative for the NYMEX front-month. If support can hold, LNG solidifies at higher levels, and elevated late June production readings decline, expanding Week 2 CDDs [Cooling Degree Days] surpassing the late June heat wave could propel upside over the next 7-10 days,” Rubin went on to state. “If support fails, however, it may open the door to another leg lower at the front of the NYMEX curve,” Rubin warned in the report. In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, Rubin highlighted that natural gas retreated after Friday’s gain. The report pointed out that the August natural gas contract closed at $3.739 per MMBtu on Friday. This represented a 21.3 cent, or 6.0 percent, rise compared to the previous close, the report outlined. “While the August natural gas contract rose 21.3 cents on Friday after plunging 42.3 cents in the first four sessions last week, it appears too much, too soon,” Rubin warned in that report. “Henry Hub spot prices averaged $3.23 over the weekend and production readings are climbing into the end of June,” he added. “However, pipeline nomination patterns often suggest higher supply into the end of the month, followed by phantom first of month declines - likely later this week. LNG feedgas reached a seven week high at 15.3 Bcfpd on Sunday and may continue to rise into mid-July as Corpus Christi brings online a third midscale train,” he continued. “Weather will remain a primary driver of prices, with Week 2 CDDs surpassing the late-June heat wave,” he went on to state. In that report, Rubin warned that the July 4 holiday may dent natural gas demand this week and next, “with another retest of technical support early this week”. “Dependent on mid to late July weather, a more durable rebound remains likely after the holiday weekend,” Rubin said in the report. A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Tuesday showed that J.P. Morgan expects the U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub price to average $3.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $4.00 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter. J.P. Morgan sees the commodity coming in at $3.80 per MMBtu overall in 2025, according to the research note. EBW Analytics Group provides independent expert analysis of natural gas, electricity, and crude oil markets, the company’s site states. Rubin is an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy, the site adds, noting that he is “instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results”.
China Snubs U.S. Crude for Third Month, Even as Ethane Trade Restarts -China has avoided buying U.S. crude oil for three straight months—the longest dry spell since 2018—delivering another hit to American shale producers already struggling with weak prices and rising global supply.According to new U.S. Census data released Thursday, China bought no American crude in May, following a similar freeze in March and April. The gap comes amid ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and has dragged total U.S. crude exports to their lowest level in more than two years.The timing couldn’t be worse for shale producers. Benchmark WTI crude recently slipped back below $70 per barrel as geopolitical risk premiums faded and OPEC+ continues to ramp up supply. Without Chinese demand to soak up barrels, U.S. exporters are left with fewer options—raising fears of a glut in the domestic market and further downward pressure on prices. While crude trade has stalled, there’s movement on another front: ethane. On Wednesday, the Trump administration lifted licensing restrictions on U.S. ethane exports to China. The move reverses a June rule that required U.S. exporters like Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners to secure special licenses for every shipment, effectively bottlenecking the trade of natural gas liquids.The Commerce Department’s decision reopens a critical export stream. China accounted for 47% of all U.S. ethane exports in 2024, and the resumption of trade is expected to reverse recent EIA forecasts of declining volumes. Ethane is used primarily for producing ethylene—a key component in plastics and petrochemicals. Still, the return of ethane flows offers little comfort to crude producers. With China continuing to snub U.S. oil even as it ramps up imports from Iran and Russia, shale drillers face a tough path ahead unless relations thaw—or prices climb.
PEMEX Crude Exports Drop 26% in May, Revenue Falls 43% -According to official PEMEX data, Mexico’s National Oil Company exported approximately 674 Mb/d of crude oil in May 2025, marking a 26% decline from the 910 Mb/d exported in May 2024. Correspondingly, oil export revenues fell sharply, from around US$2.1 billion last May to US$1.2 billion this year, a 43% drop equating to a loss of US$900 million. This revenue decline is primarily attributed to lower oil prices, with the Mexican Oil Mix falling from US$73 per barrel in May 2024 to US$57 per barrel in May 2025. Exports remained predominantly within the Americas, accounting for nearly 70% of shipments. Europe received approximately 21%, while Asia accounted for the remaining 9%. For the first five months of 2025, crude oil exports averaged 662 Mb/d, down 20% from 833 Mb/d during the same period in 2024. Crude oil production also declined by 9%, dropping from 1.51 MMb/d in May 2024 to 1.37 MMb/d in May 2025. In contrast, petroleum product output increased by 12%, rising from 907 Mb/d to 1.02 MMb/d year-over-year. Natural gas production saw a slight increase compared to April, from 4.50 Bcf/d to 4.54 Bcf/d, maintaining steady output around 4.5 Bcf/d over the past year. However, natural gas imports surged significantly. In May 2025, PEMEX imported 1.01 Bcf/d of natural gas, the highest monthly volume this year and the largest since June 2019, when imports reached 1.05 Bcf/d. This reflects a 50% increase compared to the 671 MMcf/d imported in May 2024.
Enbridge Looks to Raise Canada’s Oil Flows to U.S. via New Pipeline | OilPrice.com Rising Canadian oil production and continued demand for more shipping capacity at the key U.S. refining hubs have prompted Canada’s pipeline giant Enbridge to test interest from potential shippers for a new pipeline in Illinois linked to the Mainline system. Enbridge is considering raising the crude shipment capacity from Canada to the United States via the pipeline that could boost oil flows by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd).Enbridge and its partner Energy Transfer are gauging potential shippers’ interest in an open season until mid-July for a proposed new link, the Southern Illinois Connector, Enbridge has told Bloomberg in response to questions.Southern Illinois Connector would entail reconfiguring and upgrading existing systems and building a new segment. The pipeline is expected to receive Canadian crude from Enbridge’s Mainline system and connect to Energy Transfer’s crude oil Pipeline at Patoka, sources with knowledge of the plans told Bloomberg.The open season for the Southern Illinois Connector is in response to increased demand for additional capacity from Illinois to the U.S. Gulf Coast, Enbridge said.Enbridge operates the Mainline system, moving more than 3 million barrels a day of crude oil and liquids from Western Canada to the demand markets in the United States. Overall, Enbridge moves 30% of the crude oil produced in North America, for 65% of all U.S.-bound Canadian oil exports, 40% of U.S. oil imports, and about 25% of North American oil exports.More shipping capacity out of Canada would be welcome news for producers who are raising output from the oil sands to record highs and will continue to smash records this decade.Despite lower oil prices, Canada’s oil sands production is expected to reach an annual all-time high of 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, thanks to optimization and efficiency at producing assets, S&P Global Commodity Insights said in its latest 10-year outlook earlier this week.Oil sands volumes are expected to top 3.9 million bpd by 2030, per S&P Global Commodity Insights. Efficiencies, optimization, and favorable economics are expected to drive production growth at Canada’s oil sands, S&P Global Commodity Insights says.Despite market volatility, Canada’s energy producers have maintained spending and production guidance so far this year, showing more resilience compared to some of their counterparts in the United States.The potential increase in Canada’s oil flows to the U.S. via the new Illinois pipeline proposed by Enbridge and Energy Transfer would accommodate rising Canadian oil production and meet industry demand at the U.S. refining centers.Canada’s oil-producing province of Alberta is also seeking additional shipping capacity within Canada to boost Canadian oil exports to customers outside the United States.Alberta could receive, within weeks, a proposal from a private company for a new pipeline to British Columbia’s northwest coast, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told Bloomberg News in an interview earlier this week. Earlier this month, Smith said that Alberta is working to engage private backers for a new pipeline to ship about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Canada’s oil-producing province to British Columbia.The pipeline would run from the oil sands in Alberta to the Port of Prince Rupert on British Columbia’s northwest coast, and to international markets afterwards, according to the plans of the province.Amid soured relations with its top trading partner under U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadian policymakers at both the federal and provincial levels have started to realize they may have too hastily scrapped over the past decade Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that could have diversified Canada’s oil and gas exports.The expanded Trans Mountain route is currently the only pipeline shipping Alberta’s landlocked crude for exports on tankers from the West Coast.Alberta is also betting on a restart of its dialogue with the federal government after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged that the federal authorities would work to fast-track major projects to make Canada an energy superpower.
Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook — Global natural gas prices declined again on Monday as tensions in the Middle East continued to cool and the risk premium faded. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) fell last week after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire following attacks against each other that threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital route for LNG cargoes. The focus is now shifting back to tariffs as the United States and Canada work to revive trade negotiations. TTF was down again on Monday, when the August contract finished 2% lower at $11.34/MMBtu.
LNG Canada Ships First Cargo, Signaling Canada’s Debut as Major Natural Gas Supplier to Asia -- The first cargo has left the LNG Canada facility in British Columbia (BC), according to the project partners, marking Canada’s entrance as a large-scale natural gas exporter to the global market. Map of Western Canada's natural gas pipeline network and LNG facilities, highlighting key pipeline routes, major LNG export terminals, regional hubs, and connections to the United States market. Shell plc, the operator of the 14 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility in Kitimat, BC, disclosed late Monday that the vessel Gaslog Glasgow had successfully loaded and had left berth. By Tuesday, the ship controlled by Shell was off Canada’s western coast and indicated a voyage to South Korea, according to Kpler ship traffic data. Another ship controlled by Petronas has signaled arrival at Kitimat on July 6.
First LNG Cargo Departs from Canada's West Coast Facility - A significant milestone was reached in the global energy landscape yesterday as the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) successfully departed from the LNG Canada facility on the west coast of British Columbia. This landmark event, announced by Shell Canada Energy, an affiliate of Shell plc, signals the operational commencement of a project poised to play a pivotal role in meeting rising global energy demand and supporting decarbonization efforts, particularly in Asian markets. Shell holds the largest working interest in the LNG Canada joint venture, with a 40% stake. Located in Kitimat, British Columbia, the state-of-the-art facility is equipped with two processing units, or "trains," boasting a combined annual capacity of 14 million tonnes of LNG. This initial phase of the project is a testament to years of intricate planning, colossal investment, and collaborative efforts among the joint venture partners. The timing of LNG Canada's operational launch is particularly pertinent given the energy dynamics in Asian markets. As these economies increasingly transition away from coal-fired power generation, exports from LNG Canada are strategically positioned to contribute significantly to global decarbonization. LNG serves as a lower-carbon alternative to coal for electricity generation and can act as a reliable partner for intermittent renewable energy sources, providing stability to grids reliant on solar and wind power. Shell's own LNG Outlook 2025 forecasts a substantial surge in global LNG demand, projecting an approximate 60% rise by 2040, primarily fueled by robust economic growth across Asia. The strategic location of LNG Canada on Canada's Pacific Coast offers a distinct advantage, efficiently connecting cost-competitive upstream gas from British Columbia to this burgeoning Asian demand. Beyond its global energy implications, the LNG Canada project is already generating substantial economic benefits for British Columbia. It represents a significant new source of economic development, delivering a competitive, secure, and reliable energy source in close partnership with local communities and First Nations. Over 50,000 Canadians have been employed on the venture, with more than CAD $5.8 billion in contracts and subcontracts awarded to local, Indigenous-owned, and other businesses within the province. The LNG Canada joint venture is a collaborative effort comprising Shell plc (40%), PETRONAS (25%), PetroChina Company Limited (15%), Mitsubishi Corporation (15%), and Korea Gas Corporation (5%). Each participant will independently supply their own natural gas and market their respective share of LNG produced from the facility, ensuring a diversified supply chain from day one
Wildfires Cripple Alberta’s Oil Production -- Oil production from Canada’s oil heartland, Alberta, slumped to a two-year low in May as wildfires in the province and maintenance on some oil sands operations dragged oil output to a two-year low.Alberta produced on average 3.61 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in May, according to provincial data cited by Bloomberg. Output plunged by 397,000 bpd from April, and stood at the lowest level since May 202Production at oil sands projects plummeted by 384,000 bpd, to the lowest level seen in over four years, according to the data.This year, Alberta faced one of its worst early-season wildfire crises in recent memory, with industry officials confirming in early June that over 50% of the province’s oil production has been forced offline as flames swept through critical infrastructure zones.Seven key oil producers scaled back or halted operations entirely for days between late May and early June. The fires triggered evacuations in production hubs including Fort McMurray, echoing the catastrophic 2016 wildfires that paralyzed Canada’s energy heartland.Canada’s top producing companies, including Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and MEG Energy,halted production and evacuated workers from northeastern Alberta as wildfires continued to spread across the region, disrupting operations and threatening infrastructure. “This is an operational nightmare,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, in a note cited by Bloomberg in early June. “The timing—just as global crude inventories are tightening—adds serious bullish pressure to markets.” He added that the market may underestimate the “structural fragility” of Alberta’s wildfire preparedness.As a result of low production in Alberta, the price of heavy crude has strengthened relative to the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude. Western Canadian Select (WCS), the benchmark for Canada’s heavy crude for delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, saw its discount to WTI Crude narrow to less than $10 per barrel at the end of June, compared to an average of $15 a barrel discount in the past five years.
Global Natural Gas Prices Rally as Europe Contends With Heat Wave — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 59%: A heat wave in Europe helped reverse a downward trend in Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices, despite a relaxation of the European Union’s (EU) storage goals. Analysts with trading firm Mind Energy wrote that while high temperatures in central Europe are expected to break by next week, limits on nuclear and hydroelectric power sparked a gas price rally. EU gas storage levels reached nearly 59% of capacity at the end of June. Meanwhile, prompt TTF has risen nearly 50 cents through the week to hover near $11.60/MMBtu.
- 0.68 Bcf/d: Freeport LNG reported an operational issue with its Train 2 liquefaction unit Tuesday night, impacting around 0.68 Bcf/d in production capacity. Freeport told Texas regulators the train experienced a compressor issue that caused the system to trip and resulted in almost 13 hours of flaring. Feed gas nominations to the facility on Stratton Ridge were reported at 55% of capacity by Wednesday afternoon, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data.
- 16.3 million Dth: Despite an outage at Freeport and extended maintenance at other facilities, U.S. feed gas demand has returned to near peak nominations. Nominations have risen to above 16 million Dth Wednesday from the 15 million Dekatherms (Dth) range at the end of June, according to NGI calculations of pipeline data. Feed gas flows to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi LNG have continued to recover, while Sabine Pass LNG has held firm through the week at around two-thirds of pipeline capacity. Nominations to Plaquemines LNG have also continued to climb as the second phase of modular trains begin commissioning.
- 2029: Delfin Midstream Inc. has reserved equipment and locked in an early work agreement for the first phase of its 13.2 million ton/year LNG export project ahead of a targeted final investment decision (FID) this fall. The Houston-based company disclosed it has booked manufacturing capacity from Siemens Energy Inc. for four turbines and inked a deal between its contractors, Black and Veatch Inc. and Samsung Heavy Industries. Delfin expects to reach FID on the first of three planned floating LNG production vessels between September-December, with delivery targeted for 2029.
Serbia Explores Future Hydrogen Transport for Natural Gas Pipeline Network --Serbia's natural gas pipeline transmission system operator, Transportgas Srbija, has invited bids for a comprehensive study into the technical feasibility of integrating hydrogen into the nation's gas network. The initiative underscores Serbia's commitment to decarbonization and energy security, aligning with broader European energy transition goals.According to Transportgas, the study will assess the volume of hydrogen that can be transported through existing pipelines and the impact of blending hydrogen with natural gas on the transmission system and key industrial consumers. The company highlighted the growing importance of hydrogen as an alternative fuel. They noted Energy Community's objectives for defining natural gas quality across Southeast European transmission systems, focusing on hydrogen integration.A key aspect of the research will be determining the maximum percentage of hydrogen that can be safely blended with natural gas without compromising equipment or increasing transmission losses. The selected consultant will also define the blending procedure, identify optimal blending points, and pinpoint suitable locations for hydrogen production and storage within Serbia.The project will also analyze the transport capacity of existing pipelines, considering varying natural gas qualities from diverse supply routes, including the recently constructed Balkan Stream pipeline and the interconnector with Bulgaria, which have diversified Serbia's gas supplies.Major Serbian gas consumers — including Hesteelworks Železara Smederevo, the Rafinerija nafte Pančevo oil refinery, and various power and heating plants — will be evaluated for the impact of a hydrogen-natural gas blend on their operations. After evaluation, the consultant will recommend necessary investments, such as new gas pipelines and infrastructure upgrades, and propose regulatory changes to facilitate hydrogen's introduction into the gas grid. Bids for the study are due by July 23, with the selected consultant having 180 days to complete the report.
Ukraine gas reserves exceed 8 billion cubic meters: Analyst - Gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities exceeded 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) as of June 28 but remain at the lowest level in the last 11 years, analysis firm ExPro said on Tuesday. Ukraine has been forced to ramp up gas withdrawals from storage and increase imports this winter and spring after Russian missile attacks damaged production facilities in the east of the country. ExPro said that storage facilities were almost 26 percent full, and the volumes were 19.6 percent, or by 1.9 bcm, lower than at the same date year earlier. The consultancy said gas injection volumes remained higher than last year and between June 1 and 28, 1.25 bcm of gas was pumped into storage facilities. It noted that since the beginning of this year’s gas injection season on April 17, 2.6 bcm of gas had been pumped into storage facilities. Ukrainian energy minister said last month Ukraine had to import at least 4.6 bcm of gas for the 2025/26 winter heating season.
US judge orders Argentina to sell 51% stake in oil firm YPF -Argentina has been ordered by a US judge to sell its majority stake in oil firm YPF, a move immediately criticized by the South American country's President Javier Milei A federal judge in New York ordered Argentina on Monday to sell its majority stake in oil firm YPF, the latest blow to Buenos Aires in a decade-long international legal saga. Argentine President Javier Milei, who is on a campaign to stabilize his country's struggling economy, promptly vowed to appeal.
Oil spill into River Yare prompts eco investigation --An investigation has been launched after an oil leak into the River Yare. The Yare Valley Society, a group of volunteers who work to maintain the Yare Valley as a place of enjoyment, were made aware of the spill last week.They reported it to the Environment Agency, who subsequently launched an investigation.The agency, which is responsible for land regulation, floods, waste management and conservation, cannot say exactly where the spill happened while the investigation is ongoing.However, it has confirmed it is looking into an area in western Norwich.Spilt oil in a river can cause harm to aquatic species by poisoning fish and plant life. Rachel Taylor, vice chairwoman for the Yare Valley Society, said: "A diesel leak is something that happens from time to time. "We also get oil slicks further upriver. It's very unpleasant."The last time I remember it happening in the River Yare was about 18 months ago." A spokeswoman for the Environment Agency said: "Our staff, along with staff from Anglian Water, attended the reported location on Tuesday morning, June 24, and deployed booms to control any oil in the watercourse."Monitoring has shown that no further oil has entered the river at the location and the oil that was in the river is dispersing."Investigations are ongoing to identify the source of the pollution." While investigations continue, bosses at the Environment Agency are also working to tackle pollution in the River Wensum.They have been doubling down on wastewater compliance to decrease the level of waste in the city's waterways.It comes as groups in the city have protested against pollution in the river.The Environment Agency said it has completed 730 compliance inspections across the East of England in a bid to improve water quality.
Oil spill forces 57 Marabella residents to evacuate -- Fifty-seven residents from Marabella have so far been evacuated following an oil spill in the Marabella River. They are currently being housed at the Royal Hotel, as Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd continues clean-up operations. Guardian Media was told that the company received a report about the oil spill around 10 a.m. yesterday and traced the source of the leak to a 12-inch pipeline near the Brian Lara Stadium. A Heritage official said the leak has been contained, and clean-up operations are ongoing at various points along the river course. San Fernando West MP and Education Minister Dr Michael Dowlath, Claxton Bay MP Hansen Narinesingh, and councillor John Michael Alibocas visited the scene. They assured that Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal has been apprised of the situation and said they are working assiduously to ensure the residents are safe and comfortable, and that the matter is resolved as quickly as possible.
Oil tanker with a million barrels explodes after docking in Russian ports - The oil tanker Vilamoura, carrying 1 million barrels of oil, exploded off the coast of Libya. The vessel called at Russian ports twice, reports Bloomberg. The Vilamoura tanker is being towed to Greece, where experts will assess the damage. According to a representative of TMS Tankers, the explosion led to the flooding of the engine room, and water is entering the hull. The exact cause of the incident is still unknown. Vilamoura called at the Russian port of Ust-Luga in early April, where it loaded oil of Kazakh origin. In May, it also called at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which loads mostly Kazakh oil. According to the management company, there was no environmental pollution after the incident. All crew members are safe. Vilamoura changed its course after the incident and is heading to Greece. The vessel is expected to arrive at one of the ports to undergo technical diagnostics and assess the extent of the damage. According to the consulting company Vanguard Tech, since the beginning of the year, similar explosions have occurred on four other vessels. All of them had previously called at Russian ports. After such incidents, shipowners began using divers and underwater drones to check the hulls of ships for mines and other threats. Oil and gas are the main sources of Russia's war budget. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposes to cut the price cap for Russian oil in half, to $30, which would make Moscow much more peaceful. Senator Lindsey Graham says that US President Donald Trump supports a bill to impose 500% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil.
Shell Confirms Plan To Acquire TotalEnergies Stake In Nigeria’s Deepwater Bonga Field - Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo), a subsidiary of Shell Plc, on Monday confirmed plan to acquire TotalEnergies’ 12.5 % stake in deepwater Bonga Field. Consequence upon this, an agreement has been signed by the two parties. Shell confirmed the divestment in a statement on Monday, saying the transaction, when completed, will increase its interest in the OML 118 PSC from 55% to 67.5%. The stake is in the OML 118 Production Sharing Contract (OML 118 PSC), an oil mining lease offshore Nigeria that includes the Bonga field. SNEPCo is the operator under the OML 118 PSC. It currently produces from the Bonga field via the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel and announced the development of the Bonga North field in December 2024. “Following our final investment decision on Bonga North last year, this acquisition brings another significant investment in Nigeria’s deep-water that contributes to sustained liquids production and growth in our Upstream portfolio,” said Peter Costello, Shell’s President, Upstream. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions. The transaction is expected to be completed before the end of this year. SNEPCo (55%) operates the Bonga field in partnership with Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Ltd. (20%), Nigerian Agip Exploration Ltd. (12.5%), and TotalEnergies EP Nigeria Ltd. (12.5%), on behalf of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). After completion of the transaction, SNEPCo will hold a 67.5% stake, alongside Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Ltd. (20%) and Nigerian Agip Exploration Ltd. (12.5%). This targeted investment contributes towards growing Shell’s combined Integrated Gas and Upstream total production by 1% per year to 2030 and contributes towards sustaining our 1.4 million barrels per day of liquids production. The Bonga field is a deep-water development located in OML 118, at water depths exceeding 1,000 meters. Production from Bonga began in 2005, with a capacity to produce 225,000 barrels of oil per day. The Bonga field produced its one-billionth barrel of crude oil in 2023.
After Spain Imports Record Amount Of Diesel From Morocco, Experts Point To Russian Sources - A record-breaking increase of diesel imports from Morocco to Spain has raised suspicions within the energy industry that some of the fuel may be of Russian origin. In just two months, from March to April 2025, Spain imported 123,000 tons of diesel from Morocco, more than the entire historical total. The shipments are raising questions about how honest the EU’s energy policy is, which claims it is working to cut off Russian energy but in reality, is often sourcing it through middle countries. According to Spanish newspaper El Pais, there are a number of factors that raise the likelihood that Spain is buying Russian diesel through the backdoor. Besides the sudden increase in diesel from Morocco, a country that Spain does not typically import substantial amounts of diesel from, industry sources say Morocco did not impose sanctions on Russian energy resources after the invasion of Ukraine. El Pais noted that since the beginning of 2025, Morocco has imported over 1 million tons of Russian diesel, accounting for 25 percent of its total imports. It could also be that Morocco is importing diesel from other countries that are also importing Russian diesel and repackaging it to hide its true source. Experts believe the diesel is sent to Morocco and there it is blended with other diesel oils, making it untraceable back to its source. The suspicion is that this fuel is being imported by Rabat, the capital of Morocco, at a lower cost and then re-exported to Spain with a North African country’s certification to mask its origin.
Russia’s Oil Exports Stagnate as Prices Sink and Sanctions Bite -- Russia’s seaborne crude oil shipments barely budged in late June, holding near two-month lows despite a modest uptick from major ports. In the four weeks to June 29, crude exports averaged 3.21 million barrels per day (bpd)—up just 1% from the previous four-week period, according to Bloomberg tracking data. Weekly volumes sat around 3 million bpd, also little changed. While key terminals like Primorsk and Kozmino saw higher flows, declines from smaller ports—including Novorossiysk and Murmansk—nearly canceled out the gains. A total of 28 tankers carried 21 million barrels during the final week of June, only marginally down from the prior week’s 21.89 million barrels, also on 28 tankers. Despite a slight rise in four-week average volumes, the gross value of Russia’s weekly crude exports fell 8% to $1.27 billion—the lowest in a month. The culprit: sharply lower oil prices after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggered a market-wide selloff. Urals crude dropped by more than $6 per barrel, to around $58.50, while ESPO crude fell to $63.80. Delivered prices to India slipped to $68.53. Meanwhile, refinery runs inside Russia have remained strong, averaging 5.33 million bpd in the first 25 days of June—130,000 bpd above last year’s levels for the same period. That may help explain why rising OPEC+ quotas haven’t translated into higher exports. Russia was cleared to boost output by 100,000 bpd from March through June, with another 50,000 bpd bump starting in July. The stagnant flows come amid continued financial strain. Russia’s oil and gas profits in Q1 2025 fell 45% year-on-year to $9.9 billion, according to Rosstat, and oil and gas revenues for May were down over 35% from a year earlier. Moscow has cut its full-year oil and gas revenue forecast by 24% following the oil price crash.
Reliance to be No. 1 oil refiner if talks with Rosneft succeed - - If talks between Russian state-owned enterprise, PJSC Rosneft Oil Company, and India’s Reliance Industries go through, the latter may well be on its way to become India’s No. 1 oil refiner, overtaking the state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC). Sources confirm oil giant Rosneft’s top officials have visited India at least thrice in the last one year as they engage in early talks with potential investors, including Reliance Industries, to sell the company’s 49.13 per cent stake in Nayara Energy. Nayara Energy, previously Essar Oil, operates a 20-million tonnes-a-year oil refinery and 6,750 petrol pumps in India. Rosneft had acquired Essar Oil in a USD 12.9-billion deal in 2017, but decided to exit the company in 2024 after being unable to get full financial benefits from its Indian operations, including repatriating earnings, due to international sanctions. Alongside Rosneft, UCP Investment Group, a major Russian financial firm, is also selling its 24.5 per cent stake in Nayara. The rest of Nayara’s ownership includes Trafigura Group (24.5 per cent) and a group of retail shareholders. If a deal is struck, Trafigura too may exit the venture within months on same terms, they said. The stake of Rosneft and UCP was offered to Reliance Industries, Adani Group, Saudi Aramco and state-owned ONGC/IOC combine among others. But the USD 20-billion valuation that Rosneft had put for Nayara was considered too steep a price by almost every potential investor, including the Adani Group, which is now keen to expand its business in the renewable energy sector. Having secured a multi-billion-dollar partnership in city gas and renewable energy space with French energy giant TotalEnergies, Adani’s deal with TotalEnergies includes an agreement that limits future investments in fossil fuel space. The only other serious contender for Nayara’s takeover is Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, which has been nurturing ambitions of having downstream presence in the world’s fastest growing oil market. Aramco had previously agreed to invest in a giant oil refinery-cum-petrochemical complex that state-owned firms had planned to build in Maharashtra, but that project hasn't taken off due to land acquisition delays.
Iraq Claims Top Spot Among OPEC Crude Suppliers to the U.S. -- OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, was the single biggest supplier of crude from the cartel to the United States in May, per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cited by Iraqi media outlets Shafaq News and IraqiNews.Iraq ranked first among the 12 OPEC producers in terms of exports to the United States in May. Shipments totaled nearly 7 million barrels of crude, 6.95 million barrels to be precise. The second-largest OPEC supplier to the U.S. was Nigeria with 6.803 million barrels of crude oil exports, followed by Saudi Arabia with 6.208 million barrels of crude.Iraq has boosted exports in recent years, including to the United States, as it hasn’t adhered to its supply quota under the OPEC+ agreements. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have been overproducing above targets for years.But in May, Iraq cut its crude oil production by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.93 million bpd, compared to its target of 4.049 million bpd, according to the latest OPEC data from secondary sources.Iraq is compensating for previous overproduction as it has been one of the main overproducers in the OPEC+ deal for years, alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact.Last month, estimates put Iraq’s crude oil exports to the United States surging past 5 million barrels in May, marking Baghdad’s highest monthly volume to U.S. refiners so far this year. The surge reflects sustained U.S. appetite for heavier Middle Eastern grades, with Iraqi crude averaging between 160,000 bpd and 190,000 bpd in May.As OPEC+ maintains voluntary output curbs and U.S. shale growth moderates, Iraq has solidified its position among Washington’s top five crude suppliers.Iraq’s export increase also provides critical fiscal relief for Baghdad, with crude sales accounting for roughly 90% of Iraq’s state revenue. Recent price support near $80 per barrel has further underpinned Iraq’s monthly revenues, helping finance public sector wages and infrastructure projects.
OPEC+'s Output Surge: Navigating Volatility and Investment Opportunities in the Energy Sector - The energy sector is once again at a crossroads as OPEC+ accelerates its oil production increases, aiming to reshape global supply dynamics. On March 3, 2025, the alliance reaffirmed its plan to unwind 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary cuts, starting with a 411,000 bpd monthly hike in May, June, and July. This strategic pivot—driven by low inventories and rising demand—has profound implications for market share, competition with U.S. shale, and the balance between oversupply risks and long-term demand resilience. For investors, the path forward requires discernment between firms with production flexibility and those over-leveraged in a volatile landscape. OPEC+'s "Voluntary Eight" (V8)—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—are spearheading this output surge, aiming to reclaim market share lost during the pandemic. The 411,000 bpd monthly increments, totaling 1.233 million bpd by July 2025, signal a shift from gradual cuts to aggressive supply expansion. This move reflects confidence in demand recovery but carries risks: overproduction by members like Kazakhstan (exceeding quotas by 300,000–400,000 bpd due to new Tengiz field capacity) and Iraq's 2 million bpd overproduction since 2024 threaten compliance and market stability. The policy's success hinges on whether OPEC+ can outpace U.S. shale without triggering a price collapse. Shale producers, though slower to ramp up than in prior cycles, remain a formidable competitor. Their break-even costs ($40–$60 per barrel) are lower than OPEC's breakevens, but they require sustained high prices ($70–$80+) to justify capital spending. If OPEC's output surge depresses prices below this threshold, shale growth could stall—a boon for OPEC's market share. Conversely, if prices remain robust, shale could surge, amplifying oversupply risks. Investors should monitor the U.S. rig count and Permian Basin output. A sustained drop in rig activity below 600 units would signal shale's retreat, favoring OPEC. The market's capacity to absorb 1.2 million bpd of new supply in 2025 is uncertain. While emerging markets like India and China drive long-term demand growth, short-term volatility looms. A will reveal whether OPEC's flexibility (pausing hikes if needed) can stabilize prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors—like China's energy diplomacy or Middle East tensions—add layers of uncertainty. Long-term demand resilience is underpinned by energy transition challenges. EV adoption and renewables may curb oil demand growth, but petrochemicals, aviation, and maritime sectors will anchor consumption until 2040. The winners in this landscape will be OPEC+ members with production flexibility. Saudi Arabia's Aramco, with spare capacity of ~2 million bpd, can throttle output to stabilize prices, making it a resilient investment. Similarly, UAE's ADNOC and Russia's Rosneft (despite sanctions risks) benefit from low marginal costs and geopolitical clout. NB: that US shale break-even costs ($40–$60 per barrel) are lower than OPEC's breakevens is nonsense; that figure includes national budgets as costs for the OPEC countries...what would shale breakeven costs be if they were forced to cover the US budget deficit?)
Oil prices off to rocky start; OPEC+ supply to rise --Oil prices started the week slightly lower, weighed by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of another production increase from OPEC+ in August, which improved the outlook for global supply amid ongoing demand uncertainty. By 3:30 pm AEST (5:30 am GMT), Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.63 per barrel. The more active September contract declined 16 cents to $66.64. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August shed 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.22. Despite last week marking the biggest weekly drop for both benchmarks since March 2023, oil remains on track to finish June with a second consecutive monthly gain of more than 5%. Brent prices spiked above $80 earlier this month after the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities on 13 June, escalating a 12-day conflict that began with Israeli strikes. However, prices retreated sharply to around $67 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Adding to the downward pressure, four OPEC+ delegates indicated the group is likely to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in August. This follows similar output increases for May, June and July, and would mark the fifth monthly hike since OPEC+ began unwinding cuts in April. The next meeting of the group is scheduled for 6 July. Still, concerns over sluggish global demand continue to weigh on sentiment. China’s factory activity contracted for a third consecutive month in June, reflecting weak domestic demand and faltering exports amid continued uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations.
Oil Prices Steady Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting -- Oil futures were steady Monday morning after having reverted to pre-war levels, shedding the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Israel-Iran war and associated fears of a wider escalation which would affect oil supplies in the region. On Sunday, OPEC+ delegates will meet to set production quotas for August, with another substantial production hike in the cards. Ethanol RINs were higher and ethanol cash prices were unchanged. September corn was up 12 cents at $4.18 and December corn was up 11 1/2 cents at $4.33 1/2. NYMEX-traded WTI for August fell $0.08 barrel (bbl) to trade near $65.44 bbl, and ICE Brent for August delivery slid $0.13 bbl to $67.64 bbl. July RBOB gasoline futures shed $0.0030 to $2.0868 gallon, while the front-month ULSD futures contract advanced $0.0057 to trade near $2.3129 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index softened 0.166 points to 96.865. Market observers are expecting another 411,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) quota increase for August, for the fourth consecutive month. The producer group has pivoted earlier this year from a strategy solely focused on defending price to one defending market share from non-OPEC producers by considerably hiking oil output. OPEC's strategic shift elevates oversupply risks in the second half of the year as global demand growth is trailing supply growth, depending on how much of the quota increases will materialize. According to OPEC's latest monthly oil market report, OPEC+ collectively produced 180,000 bpd more in May than in April, and production from the eight member countries who had agreed to raise output by a combined 411,000 bpd was up 153,000 bpd month-on-month.
Concerns Over the Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Eased -The oil market continued to trade mostly sideways on Monday as the concerns over the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. Also, a possible OPEC+ output increase for August and uncertainty over the global demand outlook weighed on the market. The market has traded sideways within a trading range posted last week after worries about possible supply disruptions in the Middle East dissipated and expectations that OPEC+ members will once again consider another 411,000 bpd increase for August when they meet on Sunday. The market posted a low of $64.50 in overnight trading before it posted a high of $65.82 and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract settled down 41 cents at $65.11 and the August Brent contract went off the board down 16 cents at $67.61. The product markets ended in mixed territory, with the July heating oil contract expiring up 3.86 cents at $2.3458 and the RB market expiring down 10 point at $2.0798. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not speaking to Iran and was not offering the country “anything”, and he reiterated his assertion that the United States had “totally obliterated” Tehran’s nuclear facilities. On Friday, President Trump dismissed media reports that said his administration had discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program. According to a Reuters survey, analysts have marginally increased their oil price forecasts after the flare-up of tensions in the Middle East, but increasing OPEC+ supply and a tempered demand outlook continue to weigh on crude. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86/barrel in 2025, up from May’s $66.98/barrel forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51/barrel, above last month’s $63.35/barrel estimate. Meanwhile, analysts expect global oil demand to grow by an average of over 730,000 bpd in 2025, compared with 775,000 bpd in last month’s survey. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9th even if they are negotiating in good faith, adding that any potential extensions will be up to President Donald Trump. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil output in April increased 18,000 bpd to 13.468 million bpd from a revised 13.45 million bpd level in March. U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.883 million bpd in April, down from 4.043 million bpd in March and U.S. total refined oil product exports fell to 2.775 million bpd in April from 3.047 million bpd in March. The EIA also reported that total U.S. oil demand in April increased by 1% or 205,000 bpd on the year to 20.213 million bpd. U.S. distillate demand increased by 2.2% or 82,000 bpd on the year to 3.883 million bpd and U.S. gasoline demand increased by 0.9% or 79,000 bpd on the year to 8.91 million bpd. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 113,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 4th, increasing available refining capacity by 33,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 104,000 bpd in the week ending July 11th..
Oil prices bounce off recent lows; OPEC+ output hike, U.S. trade deals in focus --Oil prices edged higher Tuesday, bouncing off three-week lows with traders awaiting more news on potential trade deals ahead of the latest OPEC+ output meeting. At 08:15 ET (12:15 GMT), Brent oil futures for September rose 0.7% to $67.18 a barrel, climbing from their lowest level since June 11, just before the onset of the Israel-Iran war, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.8% to $65.62 a barrel. Oil markets are becoming cautiously optimistic that the Trump administration will be able to agree trade deals, as a July 9 deadline set by President Donald Trump to reach deals with the U.S. draws closer. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday lashed out against Japan and hinted at potentially ending trade talks with Tokyo, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be slapped with high tariffs despite ongoing trade negotiations. Markets fear that increased trade disruptions will hurt global economic growth, in turn reducing global demand for oil. However, the U.S. and China, the two largest economies in the world, have already come to an agreement, and Canada recently rescinded a tax on the big U.S. technology firms just before the first payments were due, allowing negotiations to restart. Additionally, the European Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, is pushing three key points in Washington this week as both sides work towards an agreement in principle, with the final details to be ironed out later. Away from trade deals, the focus is squarely on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), which is set to meet later this week, with the cartel expected to continue scaling back two years of production cuts. Reuters reported last week that the OPEC+ will increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar hikes in May, June, and July. The increase would bring the OPEC+’s total supply increase for the year to 1.78 million barrels per day, although the hike is still smaller than the total number of production cuts enacted by the OPEC+ in the past two years. "Given its strategy shift, we believe the group will continue with these large increases. This would see the full 2.2m b/d of supply brought back online by the end of the third quarter, 12 months ahead of the original schedule," said analysts at ING, in a note. "These larger supply increases should leave the global oil market well supplied for the remainder of the year. It’s set to return to a large surplus in the fourth quarter of this year. Clearly, recent price action suggests the market is mostly focused on this supply. The geopolitical risk premium has eroded fairly quickly following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Expectations for a comfortable oil balance, along with a large amount of OPEC spare production capacity, appear to be comforting the market," ING added.
Expectations That OPEC+ Will Announce an Output Hike for August - The oil market remained in its consolidation pattern on Tuesday amid the expectations that OPEC+ will announce an output hike for August at an upcoming meeting, while the market also awaits the outcome of negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners. The market posted a low of $64.67 in overnight trading before it erased its losses and traded to a high of $65.98. The market’s main focus is 411,000 bpd production increase that OPEC+ is expected to announce for August at its meeting on July 6th. Also, supporting the market was a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell to a 3-½ year low. The market was supported after Iran moved to cut off communication with the IAEA. The market, however, erased its gains once again and traded in sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract settled up 34 cents at $65.45 and the September Brent contract settled up 37 cents at $67.11. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.89 cents at $2.3269 and the RB market settling up 3.06 cents at $2.1003. U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to full up the U.S. SPR when the market conditions are right. The Financial Times reported that top U.S. trade officials are now seeking narrower agreements with other countries to secure deals before President Donald Trump’s July 9th tariff deadline. The FT said countries that agree on narrower deals would be spared the harsher reciprocal tariffs, but left with an existing 10% levy while talks on other issues continue. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in on July 9th, after a 90-day pause. Morgan Stanley said Brent crude will likely retrace to around $60/barrel by early next year, with the market being well supplied and geopolitical risk abating following the Israel-Iran de-escalation. The bank added that it sees strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries over 2025-26 in the order of 1 million bpd each year, which would be enough to meet demand growth in the period. It said OPEC continues to unwind its production quota cuts and still expect an oversupply of about 1.3 million bpd in 2026. OPEC+ is expected to approve another output hike on Sunday in a move that would fast-track plans to unwind production cuts a full year ahead of the original schedule. Key members of the alliance have already agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase, three times the initially planned volume, for May, June and July. Another increase in August would mark the fourth consecutive month of large increases, leaving the market well-supplied through year-end. If approved, the hike would push total supply increases since April to nearly 1.8 million barrels a day. The key eight OPEC+ members meeting virtually on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the U.A.E., Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Saudi Arabia will take the majority share of the increases. Kpler data showed that Saudi Arabia increased its crude exports in June by 450,000 bpd from May’s level to its highest level in more than a year. Saudi crude exports increased to 6.33 million bpd in June from 5.88 million bpd in May. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the U.S. central bank plans to “wait and learn more” about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates.
Oil settles up on signs of strong demand, investors await OPEC+ decision (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of positive demand indicators, while also treading cautiously ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group's August output policy.Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.6%, at $67.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 34 cents higher, or up around 0.5%, at $65.45 a barrel.The gains were likely due to supportive data from a private-sector survey in China, which showed factory activity returned to expansion in June, said Randall Rothenberg, a risk intelligence expert at U.S. oil brokerage Liquidity Energy.Expectations that Saudi Arabia will raise its August crude oil prices for buyers in Asia to a four-month high as well as firm premiums for Russian ESPO Blend crude oil were also supporting the notion of robust demand, Rothenberg said.Oil's gains were kept in check by expectations that the OPEC+ group will boost its August crude oil output by an amount similar to the outsized hikes agreed in May, June, and July. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6.Besides gaining market share from U.S. shale producers, which pumped oil at a record pace in April, according to official data released on Monday, the group has also been trying to punish overproducing members. OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, one of the world's 10 largest oil producers, raised oil production last month to match an all-time high, a source familiar with the data told Reuters on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC+ group, raised its June crude oil exports to the fastest rate in a year, data from Kpler showed. "These exports are flooding out even faster than the OPEC+ deal implies during the summer, when peak domestic demand typically keeps oil supplies closer to home," In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week, according to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET. Investors are also watching trade negotiations ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff deadline of July 9. Trump on Tuesday said he is not thinking of extending the deadline. A trade deal with India was very close, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday. Trump also said the U.S. will possibly have a deal with India, but he added that he doubts there will be a deal with Japan. Bessent also warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs, opens new tab despite good-faith negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to the ones Trump announced on April 2 and then suspended. The European Union wants immediate relief from tariffs in key sectors as part of any trade deal with the U.S., EU diplomats told Reuters.
Crude Oil Prices Decline As US Trade Policies And Inflation Concerns Rattle Markets -Global oil markets saw renewed volatility on Wednesday, with crude prices edging lower amid rising investor unease over US economic signals, including trade policy uncertainty, inflation risks, and softening energy demand from the world’s top oil consumer. International benchmark Brent crude slipped by 0.1% to settle at $66.99 per barrel, retreating from $67.09 at the previous session’s close. In parallel, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price dipped approximately 0.2%, ending the day at $64.78 per barrel compared to $64.94 earlier. The price retreat came as US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration’s intent to proceed with tariffs initially set for July 9. “No, I’m not thinking about the pause. I’ll be writing letters to a lot of countries,” Trump asserted on Tuesday, sending ripples through global markets wary of Washington’s hardline trade tactics. Trump’s tariff rollout, which began with a base rate of 10% on April 2—labeled “Liberation Day” by the administration—has already disrupted global trade dynamics. Though a temporary 90-day exemption followed on April 9, excluding China, analysts warn that this policy stance could hamper economic momentum and depress energy consumption in the near term. Additional pressure mounted as US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the European Central Bank’s forum in Portugal. Powell hinted that without Trump’s aggressive trade policies, the Fed might have eased interest rates. “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs, and essentially all inflation forecasts for the US went up materially as a consequence,” he remarked. Although inflation remains within expected bounds when tariffs are excluded, Powell cautioned that elevated inflation readings may continue through the summer months. The Fed’s current interest rate range stands at 4.25% to 4.5%, a level that tends to dampen appetite for riskier assets like crude oil. Adding to bearish sentiment, the American Petroleum Institute (API) disclosed a surprise increase in US oil inventories—reporting a 680,000-barrel build last week, in contrast to expectations of a 2.26 million-barrel draw. This unexpected rise points to weaker demand conditions in the US energy market. Traders are now closely watching for the official inventory figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later today. A confirmed inventory build could deepen the prevailing bearish outlook, while a significant drawdown might provide some upside support for prices.
WTI Rebounds As 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing Hub After Big Draw --Oil prices have pumped and dumped this morning as traders turn their focus to a key OPEC+ production decision and this morning's official supply and production data (following a big draw at the Cushing Hub reported by API overnight)..“Crude oil prices remained roughly unchanged week-on-week as the market focus shifts from the ceasefire in the Middle East to this Sunday’s virtual OPEC+ meeting,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note.“We do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday as consensus has already shifted towards this outcome.” The question this morning is will the official data confirm API's sizable Cushing draw. API
- Crude +680k
- Cushing -1.42mm
- Gasoline +1.92mm
- Distillates -3.46mm
DOE
- Crude +3.845mm - biggest build since Mar 2025
- Cushing -1.493mm - biggest draw since Jan 2025
- Gasoline +4.188mm
- Distillates -1.71mm
A big crude build (the first in six weeks and biggest since March) was offset by a relatively big drop in stocks at the all important Cushing Hub last week as gasoline inventories surged and distillates declined... Tank Bottoms' loom for Cushing once again... Including a small 239k addition to the SPR, last week saw the biggest build in total crude stocks since the start of April...
Oil prices jump 3% as Iran suspends cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog (Reuters) - Oil prices rose 3% on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade deal, but a surprise build in U.S. crude supplies limited price gains somewhat. Brent crude settled $2.00 higher, or 3%, to $69.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.00, or 3.1%, to $67.45 a barrel. Brent has traded between a high of $69.21 a barrel and low of $66.34 since June 25, as concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East have ebbed following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Iran enacted a law stipulating any future inspection of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency will need approval by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. The country has accused the agency of siding with Western countries and providing a justification for Israel's air strikes. "The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium from Iran's move on the IAEA," said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS. "But this is about sentiment, there are no disruptions to oil." Prices also gained after President Donald Trump and Vietnamese state media said the U.S. and Vietnam had struck a trade agreement that sets 20% tariffs on many of the Southeast Asian country's exports following last-minute negotiations. "Risk appetite appears emboldened by an apparent tariff deal between the U.S. and Vietnam today," a Prices pared gains earlier in the session after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline demand dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak summer driving season. "During summer time, 9 million (bpd) is basically the line in the sand to define a healthy market," "We're now well below that. That's not a good sign." Meanwhile, planned supply increases by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, appeared priced in and were unlikely to catch markets off-guard again imminently, Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 bpd next month when it meets on July 6, a similar amount to the hikes agreed for May, June and July. Saudi Arabia lifted shipments in June by 450,000 bpd from May, according to data from Kpler, its biggest increase in more than a year. However, overall OPEC+ exports are relatively flat to slightly down since March, Staunovo said. He expects this trend to persist over the summer as hot weather drives higher energy demand. The release of the key U.S. monthly employment report on Thursday will shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand.
Oil prices slip lower on U.S. inventory build, OPEC+ output hike expectations -- Oil prices slipped lower Thursday, reversing sharp gains from the prior session after data showing an unexpected build in U.S. inventories raised some concerns over sluggish fuel demand.At 08:20 ET (12:20 GMT), Brent oil futures for September fell 0.4% to $68.86 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.3% to $67.27 a barrel. Both contracts soared between 2.5% and 3% on Wednesday after Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog ramped up fears of a reescalation in hostilities in the Middle East. But the gains did not hold, especially as markets remained on edge over increasing supplies elsewhere, while concerns over slowing demand also weighed. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, will meet over the weekend, with recent reports indicating that the cartel plans to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August.While the hike is in a similar margin as those seen in July, June, and May, it still highlights the cartel’s plans to steadily unwind two years of sharp production cuts.This unwinding in part is to offset the economic impact of prolonged weakness in oil prices, as well as to punish overproduction within the OPEC’s ranks. Increased OPEC+ production also comes amid calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for the cartel to increase production and keep prices low. Trump has also urged U.S. oil producers to ramp up output."The expectation is that the group will go with another large supply increase of 411k b/d. Given the uncertainty, market participants will probably not want to carry too much risk into the long U.S. weekend," said analysts at ING, in a note. U.S. oil inventories grew by 3.85 million barrels in the week to June 27, government data showed on Wednesday, reversing course after an outsized 5.84 million-barrel draw in the prior week. The print was accompanied by a hefty 4.19 million-barrel build in gasoline inventories, which raised questions about just how strong fuel demand will be this summer season.Oil markets are also on edge over Trump’s trade tariffs, with Washington having signed only a few deals ahead of a July 9 deadline. "Next week marks the end of President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause. We could see tariff increases reinstated on some U.S. trading partners if trade deals are not concluded. This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week," said ING.The focus Thursday was now on key nonfarm payrolls data for June, due for release later in the session. The print is expected to show further cooling in the labor market, pointing to some economic cracks in the world’s biggest fuel consumer.
Oil Slips as US Plans Iran Talks | Rigzone - Oil prices fell after news of planned US-Iran nuclear talks eased Middle East tension risks. Oil declined after Axios reported the US plans to restart nuclear talks with Iran, reducing the risk of another flare-up in the Middle East conflict. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped 0.7% to settle at $67 a barrel, while Brent settled below $69 after the news service said US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week. That followed a statement from Iran’s top diplomat that the country would continue to engage with the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Crude prices have been buffeted by geopolitical events in recent weeks, first surging after the escalation that included direct US strikes in Iran then declining after Tehran’s retaliation was dismissed as largely symbolic. Renewed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program would further reduce oil’s already-diminished risk premium. Oil’s slump on Thursday also may have been amplified by low liquidity ahead of Friday’s July Fourth holiday in the US. The Middle East developments squelched some earlier strength in prices that was driven by US jobs data showing stronger-than-expected additions in June. Equity markets rose and the dollar gained, making commodities priced in the currency less appealing. The US also took fresh steps to restrict the trade of Iranian oil, including sanctions on companies and a “shadow fleet” of vessels that help Iran export its crude. Oil had rallied on Wednesday against the backdrop of a market flashing pockets of strength. Diesel’s premium to crude in the US earlier hit the biggest in 15 months after stockpiles of the fuel continued to decline. Spreads on the nearest crude contracts are also pointing to tight supplies, with stockpiles at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, sliding. The continued outlook for supply dynamics, however, depends on a meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Sunday. The group has begun discussing another 411,000 barrel-a-day production increase and is largely expected to agree to the significant supply increase, but may move back from the accelerated production increases if prices dip into the $50-a-barrel range, according to Citigroup Inc. “We believe we are on the brink of rolling into more structural softness over the next few months,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior energy analyst at DNB Bank ASA, led by a seasonal and structural decline in oil demand growth and OPEC+ continuing with its large output hikes. In Canada, a wildfire emerged in the Fort McMurray area, about 12 miles (20 kilometers) from a major oil sands production site, offering a fresh reminder of the seasonal threat to the country’s supplies. WTI for August delivery fell 0.7% to settle at $67.00 a barrel in New York. Brent for September settlement slipped 0.4% to settle at $68.80 a barrel.
Oil prices ease on US tariff uncertainty ahead of expected OPEC+ output boost (Reuters) - Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as investors worried that U.S. tariffs could slow energy demand ahead of an expected supply boost by major crude producers. Brent crude futures settled 31 cents, or 0.45%, lower to $68.80 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 45 cents, or 0.67%, to $67 in thin trade on the eve of the Independence Day holiday. . President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on implementation of higher U.S. tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan. Oil traders are worried about the impact on the economy and fuel demand. A preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam boosted prices on Wednesday, but overall tariff uncertainty looms large. Also weighing on prices, OPEC+ is expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day at its policy meeting this weekend. Also, a private-sector survey showed service activity in China - the world's biggest oil importer - expanded in June at its slowest pace in nine months as demand weakened and new export orders declined. In the U.S., a surprise build in crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world's biggest crude consumer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs by seven to 425, their lowest since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Thursday. U.S. job growth was solid in June while unemployment rates fell unexpectedly, data showed on Thursday. However, nearly half of the increase in nonfarm payrolls came from the government sector, with private sector gains slowing considerably as industries like manufacturing and retail grappled with Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. "Thursday's jobs report was stronger than expected, which shows that the resiliency we have been seeing in the economy over the past several months is still intact. We still expect the Federal Reserve to continue its wait-and-see approach on interest rates," Both contracts hit one-week highs on Wednesday as oil producer Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising concerns that the lingering dispute over its nuclear programme could again evolve into armed conflict. Washington imposed new Iran-related sanctions on Thursday as well as sanctions targeting the Hezbollah network, the U.S. Treasury Department website showed. "For now, the market's going to take it in stride, because none of these efforts have worked in the past,"
Oil eases amid US jobs data surprise, tariff jitters -- Oil prices held steady on Friday as a stronger-than-expected United States jobs report bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, while market participants awaited further clarity on President Donald Trump's upcoming tariff measures.By 3:10 pm AEST (5:10 am GMT) Brent crude futures were down $0.22 or 0.3% to US$68.58 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $0.12 or 0.1% to $66.88. Trading volumes were subdued due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.Investor sentiment was supported by data released Thursday showing that U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June - exceeding expectations - and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%.President Trump added a new layer of complexity to market outlooks, announcing that beginning Friday, the U.S. would start sending letters to various countries specifying the tariff rates they will face - ranging between 20% and 30%. The 90-day pause on increased tariffs expires on July 9, with significant U.S. trading partners like the EU and Japan yet to secure agreements.Meanwhile, potential supply increases from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) are also keeping crude prices in check. Four delegates told Reuters the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August as it seeks to reclaim global market share.Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iranian oil exports remained a focal point. The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions Thursday targeting a network allegedly smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi crude, as well as a Hezbollah-linked financial institution.These measures are part of the Trump administration’s ongoing “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.Meanwhile, ANZ analysts noted an Axios report revealing that the U.S. plans to restart nuclear talks with the OPEC oil producer, potentially reducing the risk of another flare up in the Middle East.
Oil Prices Fall As OPEC+ Signals Potential Output Increase - Oil prices slipped in the global market as signals of renewed nuclear diplomacy between the United States and Iran, expectations of increased OPEC+ output, and concerns over US trade policy combined to ease supply fears. Brent crude, the international benchmark, edged down 0.21% to $68.41 per barrel from the previous close of $68.56. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also dipped 0.12%, trading at $66.24 per barrel compared to $66.32 in the prior session. Investor sentiment was tempered by news of potential direct nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran in Norway next week, reducing fears of further Middle East escalation. Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while announcing changes in its cooperation framework with the International Atomic Energy Agency, following recent tensions over alleged attacks on its nuclear facilities. The diplomatic developments align with a report that senior US and Iranian officials could meet soon in Oslo, potentially opening a new channel for de-escalation in the region. Meanwhile, expectations that OPEC+ will further increase output in August are weighing on prices. The alliance, which has gradually eased voluntary production cuts since April, is set to discuss its next output adjustments at a meeting on Sunday, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other key members considering a fifth consecutive monthly hike to stabilise supply amid recovering demand. Adding to the cautious mood in oil markets is the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, President Trump indicated that letters will be sent to various countries specifying tariff rates of 20%, 25%, or 30%, heightening concerns over potential impacts on global trade flows and energy demand. The combination of easing geopolitical tensions, anticipated increases in supply, and trade policy uncertainties is keeping oil markets on edge, with traders closely monitoring developments in the coming days.
Oil falls slightly ahead of expected OPEC+ output increase (Reuters) - Oil futures slipped slightly in thin holiday trading on Friday, as the market looked ahead to this weekend's OPEC+ meeting and the likelihood that member countries will decide to raise output. Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.30 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 50 cents, or 0.75%, at $66.50 just before 1300 EDT (1700 GMT). Trade was sparse due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Brent settled about 0.8% higher than last Friday's close and WTI was around 1.5% higher. Eight OPEC+ countries are likely to make another oil output increase for August at a meeting on Saturday in their push to boost market share. The meeting was moved forward a day to Saturday. "If the group decides to increase its output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as expected, for the fourth successive month, oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will be reassessed and will suggest accelerated swelling in global oil reserves," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. "There seems to be some profit-taking on concerns that OPEC will raise production by more than expected," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures group. He added that investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode, getting ready to react to OPEC's move while also watching for implications of U.S. President Donald Trump's massive package of tax and spending cuts, which was set to be signed into law at a ceremony at the White House on Friday. Crude prices also came under pressure from a report on U.S. news website Axios, which said the United States was planning to resume nuclear talks with Iran next week, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy was back in the spotlight as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levies approaches.European Union negotiators have failed so far to achieve a breakthrough in trade negotiations with the Trump administration and may now seek to extend the status quo to avoid tariff hikes, six EU diplomats briefed on the talks said on Friday.Separately, Barclays said it had raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved demand outlook.
OPEC+ Surprises With Oversized Output Hike - OPEC+ will ramp up oil production more aggressivelythan anticipated in August, accelerating the rollback of its 2023 voluntary supply cuts in a bid to capture market share amid peak summer demand. At a virtual meeting Saturday, eight core members led by Saudi Arabia agreed to add 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supply—exceeding earlier expectations of a 411,000 bpd hike. The move sets the bloc on track to fully unwind 2.2 million bpd of prior cuts nearly a year ahead of schedule.The decision reflects short-term bullish fundamentals: inventories are low, refining margins are strong, and U.S. refiners are processing the most crude for this time of year since 2019. Still, it signals a major pivot from price defense to volume maximization. In a quote to Bloomberg, Onyx Capital’s Harry Tchilinguirian notedthat "It was pointless to keep a notional voluntary cut in place,” said . “Better to get it over with and move on.”But while Saudi Arabia pushes discipline, Kazakhstan is going its own way.In June, Kazakhstan’s crude output surged 7.5% to 1.88 million bpd—well above its official OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million bpd. This matched its all-time production high, largely driven by Chevron’s expansion of the Tengiz mega-field, which alone added 140,000 bpd month-over-month. Kazakhstan’s total oil and condensate production hit 2.15 million bpd in June, up from 2.02 million in May.Despite repeated pledges of OPEC+ compliance, Kazakh authorities admit they can’t enforce production cuts on foreign-led projects like Tengiz or Kashagan. “The republic has no right to enforce production cuts,” Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said in May. Chevron, for its part, has stated bluntly that it doesn’t “engage in discussions about OPEC or OPEC+.”Meanwhile, oil prices remain under pressure. Brent futures are down more than 6% year-to-date, and analysts estimate that global inventories have been climbing at 1 million bpd in the first half of 2025, amid cooling demand in China and production increases in non-OPEC countries. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs earlier this year warned prices could dip below $60 in Q4.OPEC+ is betting that strong summer demand will soak up the new supply. But as Kazakhstan pumps freely and Saudi Arabia chases volume, the group’s cohesion faces growing uncertainty.
Iran's President Signs Law Suspending Cooperation With IAEA in Response to US-Israeli Airstrikes - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signed a law suspending Tehran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a step taken in response to the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran, which involved US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Under the law, which was approved by Iran’s parliament on June 25, Iran will not allow IAEA inspectors into the country unless the security of its nuclear facilities and its right to peaceful nuclear activities are guaranteed, which is subject to the discretion of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.Iran’s PressTV also cited the “politically motivated” resolution that was passed by the IAEA’s Board of Governors a day before Israel launched its initial attacks on Iran as a reason for suspending cooperation with the nuclear watchdog. The resolution claimed that Iran wasn’t living up to its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and it was mainly based on alleged nuclear activity from over 20 years ago, which posed no risk of proliferation.PressTV said that the resolution was used as an “excuse” for Israel to launch the war. Both the US and the IAEA had no proof that Iran was working toward a nuclear weapon before Israel launched the war. Iran has also alleged that Israel obtained the names of Iranian nuclear scientists it has killed from the IAEA, and has been critical of the watchdog for remaining silent on Israel’s secret nuclear weapons program. Israel is estimated to have somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear weapons, and its nuclear arsenal gets very little attention since neither the US nor Israel acknowledges its existence.Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran made clear that there would be consequences related to the oversight of its nuclear program if its nuclear facilities were attacked.Since the US pulled out of the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, Tehran has increased the activity of its civilian nuclear program in response to US and Israeli pressure. The US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and after over a year, Tehran began slowly increasing its uranium enrichment levels beyond the 3.67% limit set by the deal.Iran initially brought its uranium enrichment to 4.5% but raised it to 20% in 2021 following the Israeli assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Later that year, Iran began enriching some uranium at 60% in response to an Israeli covert attack on its Natanz nuclear facility. Hawks point to the 60% enrichment to claim that Iran was racing toward a bomb since it’s a step away from enriching at 90%, which is needed for weapons-grade uranium. But Iran made clear that it was willing to reduce enrichment levels back down to 3.67% as part of a deal with the US that includes sanctions relief.Now, it’s unclear if negotiations between the US and Iran will resume, as the recent talks were used as a cover to keep Iran off guard before Israel launched its bombing campaign. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Tehran needs time to decide whether it will engage in more negotiations with the US.
Israeli Bombing of Iran's Evin Prison Killed 71 - Iran’s judiciary announced on Sunday that Israel’s June 23 bombing of the Evin Prison in Tehran killed 71 people, a number that’s been corroborated by a US-based rights group that’s critical of the Iranian government.“During the attack on the Evin Prison, 71 people — including prison administrative staff, soldiers, convicted inmates, families of the prisoners who had come for visitation or legal- follow-up, and people living nearby — were martyred,” said Asghar Jahangir, a spokesman for the judiciary, who said the attack was a “full-fledged crime.”Jahangir said that the bombing occurred during visitation hours when inmates were meeting with their families and social workers. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), at least 35 of those killed were staff members, two were inmates, one was a woman visiting a judge about her imprisoned husband, and another person was killed while walking near the prison. The rest have yet to be identified by the group.According to Israeli media, the strike on the prison, which is known to hold political prisoners, was an apparent effort to help prisoners escape. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that Israel struck the prison but didn’t give an official reason for the attack. The Iranian government has said more than 600 Iranians were killed in the 12 days of Israel bombings, while the HRAI has put the toll significantly higher, saying 1,190 were killed. Out of the 1,190, the HRAI’s news agency,HRANA, has identified 436 civilians and 435 military personnel, while 319 remain unidentified. The HRANA said that at least 65 children and 49 women were killed, and it released the names of 39 children who have been identified. The organization also recorded the killing of five doctors and four aid workers in strikes that targeted hospitals and other medical infrastructure.
US Refueled Israeli Jets Throughout Iran War - US military tanker aircraft refueled Israeli jets throughout the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran to ease the burden on Israel’s limited and aging fleet of tankers, Israel Hayom has reported. The report said that “hundreds of aerial refuelings were conducted for Israeli fighter jets flying to Iran” during the 12 days of attacks on Iran. It was always believed that Israel wouldn’t be able to launch significant airstrikes on Iran without the US supporting the attacks with refueling. In the first days of the 12-day war, dozens of US KC-135s, KC-46s, and other tanker aircraft were spotted by flight trackers leaving the United States and heading east across the Atlantic Ocean. US officials confirmed that the tanker deployment was related to the Middle East, and the Israel Hayomreport said that some of them were used to refuel Israeli jets. Besides the refueling, the US also supported Israel’s attacks on Iran by providing intelligence, helping intercept Israeli missiles and drones, and eventually launching its own airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities using B-2 bombers, a fleet of fighter jets, and a submarine. It’s unclear how much the 12-day war cost the US, but it must be in the billions, as a report from Military Watch Magazine estimated that the US used 15% to 20% of its global THAAD anti-missile arsenal, which comes at a cost of at least $800 million. The US is believed to have two of its seven THAAD missile defense systems stationed in Israel, along with US troops to operate them.
IAEA Chief Says Iran Could Resume Enriching Uranium Within Months - Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has said that Iran could likely resume enriching uranium within a few months despite the US and Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities.“They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that,” Grossi told CBS News. He also acknowledged that the fate of Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched at 60% is unclear.President Trump has insisted that Iran’s nuclear facilities have been “obliterated” and that the bombing campaign set back the nuclear program decades, but he is also threatening to bomb Iran again if it moves to restart its uranium enrichment program.When asked on Friday if he would bomb the country again if it enriched at a level that “concerned” him, Trump replied, “Sure, without question.” He also said he wasn’t concerned about any “secret” Iranian nuclear sites.In the wake of the bombing campaign, Iran has taken steps to reduce oversight on its nuclear program and suspend cooperation with the IAEA. Iranian officials have criticized the IAEA and Grossi for their role in the events leading up to the war and the lack of condemnation of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, and have rejected Grossi’s request to visit the bombed sites.“The IAEA and its Director-General are fully responsible for this sordid state of affairs. [Grossi’s] insistence on visiting the bombed sites under the pretext of safeguards is meaningless and possibly even malign in intent,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X on Friday.The IAEA and the US had no evidence that Iran was seeking a nuclear weapon before Israel launched its war on June 13, but both parties hyped the threat of Iran’s nuclear program even though Tehran made it clear it was willing to significantly reduce its uranium enrichment levels as part of a deal with the US for sanctions relief. Iran has also alleged that Israel obtained the names of Iranian nuclear scientists from the IAEA. During the 12-day war, Israel killed at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists, including Sedighi Saber, who was killed along with 12 members of his family.
Israel’s ‘Militarized’ Gaza Aid Plan Constitutes a ‘War Crime’ – UN OHCHR -- The UN human rights office called for an investigation into the deaths of the over 400 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces near the aid distribution points in Gaza since May 27. Israel’s “militarized humanitarian assistance mechanism” in the Gaza Strip is “in contradiction with international standards on aid distribution,” the UN human rights office (OHCHR) has warned, pointing out that the “weaponization of food” constitutes “a war crime.”“The weaponization of food for civilians, in addition to restricting or preventing their access to life-sustaining services, constitutes a war crime and, under certain circumstances, may constitute elements of other crimes under international law,” OHCHR spokesperson Thameen al-Kheetan said at a press briefing on Tuesday.He said the aid mechanism “endangers civilians, and contributes to the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza.”“Desperate, hungry people in Gaza continue to face the inhumane choice of either starving to death or risk being killed while trying to get food,” al-Kheetan stressed.Over 410 Palestinians have reportedly been killed by Israeli forces since Israel’s US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating on May 27, the OHCHR spokesperson stated.The Israeli army, he stressed, “has shelled and shot Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points, leading to many fatalities.”At least 93 others “have also reportedly been killed by the Israeli army” while attempting to approach “the very few aid convoys” of the UN and other humanitarian organisations, he added, while at least 3,000 Palestinians have been injured in these incidents.“Each of these killings must be promptly and impartially investigated, and those responsible must be held to account,” the UN official stated.“The killing and wounding of civilians resulting from the unlawful use of firearms constitute a grave breach of international law, and a war crime,” he emphasized.
Israeli settlers rampage at a military base in the West Bank— Dozens of Israeli settlers rampaged around a military base in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, setting fires, vandalizing military vehicles, spraying graffiti and attacking soldiers, the military said. Sunday night’s unrest came after several attacks in the West Bank carried out by Jewish settlers and anger at their arrests by security forces attempting to contain the violence over the past few days. More than 100 settlers on Wednesday evening entered the West Bank town of Kfar Malik, setting property ablaze and opening fire on Palestinians who tried to stop them, Najeb Rostom, head of the local council, said. Three Palestinians were killed after the military intervened. Israeli security forces arrested five settlers. “No civilized country can tolerate violent and anarchic acts of burning a military facility, damaging IDF property and attacking security personnel by citizens of the country,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Footage on Israeli media showed dozens of young, religious men typically associated with “hilltop youth,” an extremist movement of Israeli settlers who occupy West Bank hilltops and have been accused of attacking Palestinians and their property. The footage showed security forces using stun grenades as dozens of settlers gathered around the military base just north of Ramallah. The Israeli military released photos of the infrastructure burned in the attack, which it said included “systems that help thwart terrorist attacks and maintain security.” Far-right Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has often defended Israelis accused of similar crimes, offered a rare condemnation of Sunday’s violence. “Attacking security forces, security facilities, and IDF soldiers who are our brothers, our protectors, is a red line, and must be dealt with in full severity. We are brothers,” he wrote on X.
66 children in Gaza have died from malnutrition due to US-Israeli starvation campaign - At least 66 children have died of malnutrition in Gaza during the US-Israeli genocide, Gaza’s government media office said this weekend, as mass hunger continues to skyrocket in the besieged enclave. Announcing the malnutrition deaths, the government media office accused Israel of “deliberate use of starvation as a weapon to exterminate civilians.” Earlier this month, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said that malnutrition is surging in Gaza at an “alarming” rate, with 112 children admitted for treatment with malnutrition every single day since the start of 2025. In June alone, over 5,000 children between 6 months and 5 years of age have been diagnosed with malnutrition. This represents a 50 percent increase from May and a 150 percent increase from February. UNICEF noted that “Of the 5,119 children admitted in May, 636 children have severe acute malnutrition (SAM), the most lethal form of malnutrition. These children need consistent, supervised treatment, safe water, and medical care to survive—all of which are increasingly scarce in Gaza today.” UNICEF Regional Director Edouard Beigbeder said in a statement, “In just 150 days, from the start of the year until the end of May, 16,736 children—an average of 112 children a day—have been admitted for treatment for malnutrition in the Gaza Strip. ... Every one of these cases is preventable. The food, water, and nutrition treatments they desperately need are being blocked from reaching them. Man-made decisions that are costing lives.” UNICEF warned that malnutrition will only continue to surge unless the Israeli blockade is lifted. Malnutrition in Gaza was nonexistent 20 months ago, UNICEF noted. “[With] the blockade and the enforced starvation, children across Gaza have become weak,” Dr. Susan Marouf of the Friends of Patients Medical Society in Gaza City told Al Jazeera. “We managed to help some of the cases and reduce the level of severity. Others, tragically, developed much worse conditions.” The Israeli military has largely shut down the provision of food by legitimate humanitarian organizations in Gaza, including the United Nations. Instead, the US and Israel have created a pseudo-humanitarian organization called the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” (GHF), which lures hungry Gazans to distribution points where they are regularly massacred by Israeli troops. In at least 19 separate instances over the past month, Israeli troops have killed civilians by opening fire on them at GHF distributions, killing over 550 people. On Sunday, Israeli forces carried out yet another massacre at an aid distribution site, killing at least five people. Last week, Haaretz published an investigation featuring interviews with Israeli troops, who said they were repeatedly ordered to open fire on unarmed crowds of aid seekers in an operation whose name apparently references the homicidal “red light, green light” game in the fictional Squid Games television series. The operations of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation have been condemned by genuine humanitarian organizations, with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres saying, “It is killing people. … People are being killed simply trying to feed themselves and their families. The search for food must never be a death sentence.”
Israeli Forces Kill 112 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Tuesday that Israeli forces killed 112 Palestinians and wounded 463 over the previous 24-hour period as relentless US-backed Israeli strikes continued to pound targets across the Strip.The Health Ministry said that the bodies of four other Palestinians killed in previous Israeli attacks were recovered. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Hospital sources told Al Jazeera that at least 16 Palestinians were killed on Tuesday while attempting to get aid. The Health Ministry said that since the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating at the end of May, more than 600 aid seekers have been killed. The Israeli military admitted on Monday that its forces had killed some civilians near GHF aid sites but disputed the Health Ministry’s numbers, claiming they’re an exaggeration. The admission came after aninvestigation by Haaretz revealed that IDF troops had been given orders to fire on unarmed Palestinians attempting to reach GHF distribution sites to drive them away or disperse them, even though they posed no threat.Despite the attention on the aid massacres, the killings continue. Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling also pounded targets across Gaza on Tuesday, including in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, where at least 10 people were killed in the bombing of a house.Israeli strikes also hit the Zeitoun area of Gaza City in the north, where at least eight Palestinians were killed. Israeli attacks also targeted central Gaza, where at least two Palestinians were killed in the al-Maghazi refugee camp. An overnight attack on Zawayda, central Gaza, leveled a home,killing at least six people. Palestinians in Gaza are continuing to face malnutrition under the Israeli siege and restrictions on aid, and a 29-year-old man died of starvation on Tuesday, a few days after two infants died due to shortages of baby formula.
Israeli Forces Kill 139 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Wednesday that Israeli forces killed at least 139 Palestinians and wounded 487 over the previous 24-hour period, as US-backed Israeli strikes have ramped up across the Strip and the IDF continues to kill people seeking aid.The Health Ministry said that the bodies of three people killed by previous Israeli attacks were also recovered from the rubble. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Al Jazeera reported that at least 11 Palestinians were killed on Wednesday while waiting for aid. The Health Ministry said that a total of 39 aid seekers were killed over the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of Palestinians killed while attempting to get food since the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operating at the end of May to 640.Israeli media has confirmed that Israeli troops have been ordered to fire on unarmed Palestinians, and the IDF has admitted to killing civilians near aid sites, though it disputes the Health Ministry’s numbers. Despite the revelations, the aid massacres haven’t impacted US support for Israel, and the Trump administration is also now funding the GHF.Israeli strikes on Wednesday included the bombing of a building sheltering displaced Palestinians in the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City, killing 17 people. An airstrike in a different part of Gaza City killed Dr. Marwan al-Sultan, the director of the Indonesian Hospital, along with several of his family members.An expansion of Israeli operations was reported in northern Gaza, and at least one Israeli soldier was killed in the area. In southern Gaza, heavy Israeli strikes hit tents sheltering displaced Palestinians, killing at least six people in Khan Younis.
Israeli Airstrike Kills Gaza Hospital Director Along With His Family - On Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike on an apartment in Gaza City killed Dr. Marwan al-Sultan, the director of the Indonesian hospital, as the Israeli military continues to kill medical workers and decimate Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure.According to The Associated Press, al-Sultan was killed alongside his wife, his daughter, and son-in-law. Other reports say his sister was also among the dead.According to Haaretz, the Indonesian hospital has been out of service since May 21 after an Israeli airstrike destroyed its generators. Al-Sultan had been quoted by many media outlets, warning of the catastrophic destruction of Gaza’s medical infrastructure.According to Healthcare Workers Watch (HWW), a Palestinian medical organization, al-Sultan’s killing marks the 70th healthcare worker killed by the Israeli military in Gaza in the past 50 days.“The killing of Dr Marwan al-Sultan by the Israeli military is a catastrophic loss to Gaza and the entire medical community, and will have a devastating impact on Gaza’s healthcare system,” said Muath Alse, director of HWW, according to The Guardian.“This is part of a much longer and systematic atrocious targeting of healthcare workers sanctioned by impunity. This is a tragic loss of life, but also an obliteration of their decades of lifesaving medical expertise and care at a time when the situation facing Palestinian civilians is unfathomably catastrophic,” Alse added.The Guardian report said that among the healthcare workers killed over the past 50 days were “three other doctors, the chief nurses of the Indonesian hospital and al-Nasser children’s hospital, one of Gaza’s most senior midwives, a senior radiology technician, and dozens of young medical graduates and trainee nurses. On June 6, the first day of Eid, nine healthcare workers were killed in one day in airstrikes in the north of Gaza, where they were sheltering with their families.”A May 25 Israeli airstrike on a home in Khan Younis killed nine out of 10 children of Doctors Alaa al-Najjar and Hamdi al-Najjar. Alaa was working as a pediatrician at the Nasser hospital when the strike hit her family, and Hamdi was injured in the attack, succumbing to his wounds a few days later. Alaa and her only surviving child, 11-year-old Adam, who was badly maimed, have since been evacuated to Italy for medical treatment.
Israeli Forces Massacre 118 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Thursday that Israeli forces killed at least 118 Palestinians and wounded 581 over the previous 24-hour period as heavy US-backed Israeli strikes continued across the Strip and Israeli troops continued to shoot people seeking aid.Thursday marks the third day in a row that the Health Ministry reported a death toll of more than 100. Based on the ministry’s numbers, which studies have found are likely a significant undercount, Israeli forces killed 369 Palestinians over a 72 hours.Israeli attacks on Thursday included massacres of children. According toThe Associated Press, an overnight strike on tents sheltering displaced Palestinians killed 13 members of one family, including six children under the age of 12. Two children, including a six-year-old girl, were among eight people reported killed by an Israeli strike that hit near a stand selling falafel in central Gaza.An Israeli strike on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians in Gaza City killed 15 people. The breakdown of the casualties is unclear, but photos of the funeral for the victims at Al-Shifa Hospital show several tiny bodies wrapped in shrouds.Medical sources told AP that five Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces along roads while attempting to reach distribution sites run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), and another 40 were killed while waiting for UN aid trucks in various parts of Gaza.The Health Ministry said that since the GHF began operating in Gaza at the end of May, 652 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid. The aid massacres have continued despite more attention on the issue following a report from Haaretz that revealed IDF troops had been given orders to fire on unarmed people near GHF sites.The AP also reported that American contractors posted at the aid sites have also been using live ammunition and stun grenades to disperse civilians near the distribution sites.
Israel ‘Disappeared’ around 377,000 Palestinians in Gaza since 2023 – Report --At least 377,000 Palestinians in Gaza have “disappeared” due to Israel’s ongoing genocidal war on the enclave since October 2023, a new report published via Harvard Dataverse revealed. Using data-driven analysis, including spatial mapping and location data, the report by Israeli professor Yaakov Garb this month scrutinizes how Israel’s aid blockade on the enclave and attacks on Palestinians led to a considerable decline in the total population.The official death toll, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, is just under 60,000, but, as per Garb’s findings, the figure may be much higher.Prior to Israel’s military operation, Gaza’s population was estimated at 2.227 million, while current official estimates are 1.85 million people. Citing maps based on Israeli army estimates, the report indicates that the remaining population in Gaza City is around 1 million, with 500,000 in Mawasi and 350,000 in central Gaza. The figures leave 377,000 people unaccounted for, with half of the total believed to be children. These “missing individuals are not merely statistical discrepancies,” the Middle East Monitor (MEMO) reported, citing the report.“They include civilians in northern Gaza, subjected to the most intense bombardment; residents of Rafah’s decimated eastern districts; families trapped in complete communication blackouts; those killed in attacks; and others buried beneath the rubble,” MEMO added. Garb’s report criticized the US-backed Israeli aid distribution mechanism for not adhering to humanitarian principles. “Overall, these aid compounds seem to reflect a logic of control, not assistance, and it would be a misnomer to call them humanitarian aid distribution hubs,” Garb stated.He said they “do not adhere to humanitarian principles, and much of their design and operation is guided by other objectives, which undermine their declared purpose.”As with the “advance warning” evacuation notices described in earlier reports, the “ostensibly humanitarian measures seem to be less about adhering to international humanitarian law and practice, and more about making a show of doing so,” Garb noted.“If an attacker cannot adequately and neutrally feed a starving population in the wake of a disaster it is ongoingly creating, it is obligated to allow other humanitarian agencies to do so,” he stated.
Anti-Genocide Activism Is Terrorism In The Empire Of Lies - Caitlin Johnstone - British police have been arresting anti-genocide protesters for holding signs expressing support for activist group Palestine Action, which London has now officially designated a terrorist group for putting red paint on war planes that were being used in the Gaza holocaust.That’s right, welcome to the empire, where peace activists are called terrorists, where hospitals are called military bases, where facts are called blood libel, where people opposing genocide are called hateful Nazis, where genocidal soldiers are a protected group and chanting for their death is a hate crime.Israel has banned journalists from Gaza in order to hide its war crimes, making doctors and other specialists the de facto western reporters on the ground. And they’re all reporting the same thing about what they are seeing.Part of the problem is how normies who don’t follow this stuff closely cannot believe Israel could be as evil as we’re saying it is. They’re often like “Oh yeah right, they’re just killing civilians because they’re evil and want Palestinians to die.” Which would make sense as an objection if you hadn’t been following Israel’s pattern of behavior from day to day and weren’t familiar with the way Israelis talk about Palestinians whenever they’re speaking to each other in Hebrew instead of addressing the western press. Israel’s public image is somewhat protected by the fact that its behavior is so profoundly evil that simply talking about it strains credulity among the uninformed, in the same way you sound like a crazy conspiracy theorist if you talk about some of the things the CIA has openly admitted to doing in the past. Many people literally cannot believe anyone could be as evil as Israel is, so the true extent of their crimes go unseen.
