gasoline supplies fell for the first time in 13 weeks on higher exports, lower imports, and greater domestic demand

​US oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive week after Trump called Putin to jumpstart peace talks on Ukraine and after the EIA reported another large increase in US oil inventories….after falling 2.1% to $71.00 a barrel last week after the Trump administration paused their tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the EIA reported that US oil inventories jumped by the most in almost a year, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for March delivery rose in early Asian trade on Monday, as traders assessed the latest threat from US President Trump to impose new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, which could affect economic growth and fuel demand, then moved higher in New York as traders largely dismissed the expected Trump announcement, seeing an equal chance the tariffs could be walked back or even increased at some point in the near future, and settled $1.32 higher at $72.32 a barrel even though traders remained concerned that Trump might start a trade war….oil prices ticked higher again in Asia on Tuesday, as markets absorbed the latest round of U.S. tariffs, despite fears of an economic slowdown that could weigh on global energy demand, then extended their gains in US trading amid concerns over oil supplies, despite worries that trade tariffs could affect global economic growth, and settled $1.00 higher at $73.32 a barrel as US sanctions raised concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies and rising Middle East tensions, outweighing worries that trade tariffs would boost inflation and dampen global economic growth…..oil prices turned lower in Asia on Wednesday, after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 9.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, while the Federal Reserve signaled a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year, then extended their losses after EIA data also showed a sizable oil inventory build, and settled $1.95 or 2.7% lower at $71.37 a barrel after Trump called Putin and Zelenskiy to discuss ending the war in Ukraine….oil prices took another hit on overseas markets on Thursday, after Trump stated that he and Russian President Putin had agreed to begin peace negotiations, then was further pressured by the expectations that President Trump would outline plans for reciprocal trade tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. goods, but recovered most of its losses to settle 8 cents lower at $71.29 a barrel, after Trump delayed those tariffs until at least April, feeding hope that the world could avoid a trade war that would pressure economies and energy demand…oil prices moved lower again on Friday, after Hamas recommitted to the ceasefire with Israel and said it would free another three hostages as planned, easing concerns that the truce was close to collapse, and settled 55 cents, or 0.8% lower, at $70.74 a barrel, on prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that could ease global supply disruptions by ending sanctions against Moscow, and hence ended 0.4% lower for the week…

natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished higher for the third time in four weeks weeks. on forecasts for much colder eastern US temperatures thru the first week of March….after rising 8.7% to $3.309 per mmBTU last week on a bullish shift in February temperature forecasts and on a price reset following a 25% drop due to a contract switch the prior week, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for March delivery opened 8.9 cents higher Monday morning, as weather models had added material cold to the short-term forecast, then briefly dipped back to $3.353 before resuming its upward momentum and settling 13.5 cents higher at $3.444 per mmBTU, on colder forecasts and a record pace of flows to LNG export plants ​so f​ar​ in February….natural gas prices started Tuesday 6.4 cents higher, propelled overnight by forecasts of sustained below-average temperatures in key demand areas of the country, and settled 7.5 cents higher at $3.519 per mmBTU, as traders focused on an outbreak of bitter cold, the potential for freeze-thwarted production​, and strengthening cash prices….with little change to weather models overnight, natural gas prices opened slightly higher and traded in a narrow range most of Wednesday, before settling 4.6 cents higher at $3.565 per mmBTU on lower output due to freezing wells and a record pace of flows to LNG export plants….natural gas prices opened 16.4 cents higher on Thursday, driven higher overnight by continuing frigid forecasts, but withdrew ​from an intraday high after a bullish storage report to settle 6.3 cents higher at $3.628 per mmBTU on a slightly bigger-than-expected draw from storage, rising flows to LNG export plants, a drop in daily output, and forecasts for colder weather and higher demand over the next two weeks….natural gas prices drifted lower through afternoon trading on Friday, as traders weighed robust production against steady export demand and forecasts for colder mid-February conditions, but recovered before the close to settle 9.7 cents or 3% higher at $3.725 per mmBTU, with late buying fueled by chilly forecasts and record LNG exports, and thus finished 12.6% higher for the week..

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending February 7th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 100 billion cubic feet to 2,297 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 248 billion cubic feet, or 9.7% below the 2,545 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on February 7th of last year, and 67 billion cubic feet, or 2.8% less than the five-year average of 2,364 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 7th of February over the most recent five years….the 100 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was a little more than than the 95 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and was quite a bit more than the 60 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in January of 2024, but it was quite a bit less than the average 144 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same end of January week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 7th indicated that despite a decrease in our oil imports, a similar decrease in our oil exports meant we were left with surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for third time in twelve weeks, and for eleventh time in thirty-two weeks, even after an increase in demand for crude that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 606,000 barrels per day to average 6,309,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average 467,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 422,000 barrels per day to average 4,909,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,400,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending February 7th, an average of 184,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 612,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 16,000 barrels per day higher at 13,494,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,506,000 barrels per day during the February 7th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,431,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 7th, an average of 82,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 617,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending February 7th averaged a rounded 458,000 barrels per day more than what was added to storage plus ​what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -458,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded net 617,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 581,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 36,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixty-first SPR ​a​ddition in the past sixty-eight weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,604,000 barrels per day last week, which was 7.4% more than the 6,140,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 16,000 barrels per day higher at 13,494,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 16,000 barrels per day higher at 13,059,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was unchanged at 435,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.0% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 85.0% of their capacity while processing those 15,431,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending February 7th, up from their 84.5% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still down from 91.7% utilization rate of four weeks earlier, reflecting the impact of the earlier below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries​, which are still operating at 82% of capacity….the 15,431,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 6.1% more than the 14,542,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the similarly cold impacted week ending February 9th of 2024, but 3.7% less than the 16,020,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending February 7th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 88.0%, also low for this time of year…

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also higher, increasing by 180,000 barrels per day to 9,346,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 7th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 27,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 1.9% more than the 9,175,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending February 9th of last year, and was 1.1% more than the gasoline production of 9,241,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending February 7th, 2020….on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 9,000 barrels per day to 4,543,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 186,000 barrels per day during the prior week. Even after those production decreases, our distillates output was 11.5% more than the 4,357,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending February 9th of 2024, but 6.1% less than the 4,076,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending February 7th, 2020…

In spite of this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the first time in thirteen weeks, decreasing by 3,035,000 barrels 248,053,000 barrels during the week ending February 7th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 2,233,000 barrels to a 53 week high during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 248,000 barrels per day to 8,576,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline rose by 110,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline fell by 274,000 barrels per day to 319,000 barrels per day.…After twenty-eight gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-four weeks, our gasoline supplies were fractionally higher than last February 9th’s gasoline inventories of 247,330,000 barrels, ​b​ut were 1% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Meanwhile, with this week’s distillates production little changed, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the eighth time in twenty-one weeks, increasing by 135,000 barrels to 118,615,000 barrels during the week ending February 7th, after our distillates supplies had plunged by 5,471,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies ​w​ere a big higher this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 914,000 to 3,685,000 barrels per day, and even though our exports of distillates rose by 191,000 barrels per day to 1,084,000 barrels per day while our imports of distillates rose by 86,000 barrels per day to 245,000 barrels per day...After 32 inventory withdrawals over the past 56 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 5.7% below the 125,659,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on February 9th of 2024, and about 11% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, even with the decrease in our oil imports and the increase in demand for crude that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 10th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, increasing by 4,070,000 barrels over the week, from 423,790,000 barrels on January 31st to 427,860,000 barrels on February 7th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 8,664,000 barrels over the prior week… Even after those two big increases, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 4% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were almost 33% above the average of our available crude oil stocks ​a​fter the first week of February over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this February 7th were 2.6% less than the 439,450,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on February 9th of 2024, and 9.2% less than the 471,394,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on February 10th of 2023, but were 4.0% more than the 411,508,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on February 11th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count rose for a third consecutive week after falling to a three year low ​f​our weeks ago, mostly on the addition of horizontal oil rigs in the Permian basin since that time....for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of February 14th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (February 7th) and this week’s (February 14th) count, the third column shows last week’s February 7th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 16th of February, 2024…

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Anti Groups “Demand” OH Governor Pause Drilling Under State Parks - Marcellus Drilling News - - We’ve made this observation many times over the years, but here we go again. Ever notice how lefty environmentalists “demand” this and “demand” that? They’re a very demanding bunch, which is why nobody pays them any attention (except us). Here’s the latest example. A group of 30 “organizations” (many of them fronts for one or two people) sent a letter to Ohio Governor Mike DeWine demanding that he block/suspend/pause shale drilling under (not on) Ohio state lands, including parks. The letter uses factual inaccuracies and outright lies to try and scare DeWine into blocking legal drilling under state-owned land.

OH Legislators, New Bill, Encourage More Gas-Fired Power Plants -- Marcellus Drilling News - Ohio lawmakers are grappling with how to prepare the state for a surge in new power demand from AI data centers. In January, MDN told you that five Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) commissioners will decide some important guidelines about who should pay to build out new electricity sources for data centers—how much current ratepayers should be on the hook for with expanded power generation (see 5 PUCO Commissioners to Decide the Future of Data Centers in Ohio). We said the five commissioners would decide the future of Ohio’s data centers. However, that’s not quite accurate. It would be more accurate to say they will decide how the risk is distributed between data centers and power generators in cases where data centers want to connect to the local grid. There’s a whole other world of power plants on-site.

Energy bill signals Ohio is 'open for business,' natural gas, nuclear lobbyists say - Cleveland.com – A state legislative plan to address an expected explosion in energy demand in the coming decades is drawing unusual battle lines among energy generators, utilities and consumer advocates.

Hit the Lights - Utica Shale Condensate Production Is Up. Where's It Going and How's It Getting There? - RBN Energy - Wells operated by a half-dozen E&Ps in eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale are now churning out more than 100 Mb/d of superlight crude oil — aka condensate — more than twice as much as they were just three years ago, and there’s talk that condensate production in the play’s “volatile oil window” could increase significantly over the next few years. This surge in condensate output raises three relevant questions: (1) how is the condensate being transported to market, (2) where is it headed and (3) what is it being used for? In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on Utica condensate with a look at the approaches used to transport the commodity to refineries and others in the Midwest and points beyond. As we said in Part 1, five counties in eastern Ohio have been generating fast-increasing volumes of crude oil, almost all of it “light condensate” with an API gravity of 55 to 59 degrees (and sometimes as high as 65 or even 70 degrees), but with a rising share of “heavy condensate” (API of 50 to 52) that is more like a super-light crude and therefore more desirable to some refiners. In November 2024 (the latest data from EIA), Ohio produced a record 120 Mb/d — 140% more than in November 2021 — with another 46 Mb/d produced in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And the buzz among E&Ps and market watchers in the play is that Ohio production alone may well rocket past 150 Mb/d and even 175 Mb/d or 200 Mb/d over time. That optimism is reflected in the results of the January 30 initial public offering (IPO) by Infinity Natural Resources (NYSE symbol: INR), which valued the seven-year-old company at a heady $1.3 billion. Infinity, which has both condensate- and natural-gas-focused assets in the broader Marcellus/Utica production area, ranked fourth among the six leading Utica condensate producers we discussed in Part 2, with Q3 2024 production averaging a modest 10 Mb/d.After Infinity’s IPO, Reuters reported that the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which holds a 98% ownership interest in Encino Acquisition Partners (EAP), the largest condensate producer in Ohio (Q3 2024 production of 45 Mb/d), is studying the possibility of either selling its stake or initiating an EAP IPO that would value the E&P at more than $7 billion. (CPPIB and Encino Energy, which owns the other 2% of EAP and oversees its operation, have declined comment.) Also, EOG Resources, the third-largest condensate producer in Ohio (and by far the largest Utica condensate player by market capitalization), has been talking up the potential of its Utica position, which the company has said is “almost reminiscent of what we saw nearly a decade ago happening in the (Permian’s) Delaware Basin.”

24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 3 – 9 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Feb 3 - 9, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells remained healthy. Two weeks ago, 22 new permits were issued. Last week, the number increased to 24 new permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued 11 new permits last week. Nine permits went to Range Resources for two pads in Washington County. One permit each went to Snyder Brothers and EQT in Armstrong and Greene counties, respectively. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | GULFPORT ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SNYDER BROTHERS | TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY |

ENBRIDGE INC SEC 10-K Report - Enbridge Inc., a leading energy infrastructure company, has released its annual Form 10-K report, providing a detailed overview of its financial performance, business operations, strategic initiatives, and the challenges it faces. The report highlights Enbridge's diverse revenue streams, significant infrastructure investments, and commitment to transitioning towards a lower-carbon economy.

• Total Revenue: $53.5 billion, reflecting an increase driven by higher commodity sales and gas distribution sales.
• Earnings before interest, income taxes, and depreciation and amortization (EBITDA): $16,885 million, showing growth due to contributions from acquisitions and favorable market conditions.
• Net Income: $5,053 million, impacted by non-cash, net unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments and other non-operating factors.
• Earnings per Common Share (EPS) attributable to common shareholders: $2.34, decreased from the previous year due to certain infrequent or other non-operating factors.
• Diluted EPS attributable to common shareholders: $2.34, consistent with basic EPS, reflecting the same factors affecting net income.
• Revenue Segments: Enbridge operates through four main business segments: Liquids Pipelines, Gas Transmission, Gas Distribution and Storage, and Renewable Power Generation. Each segment contributes to the company's diverse revenue streams.
• Geographical Performance: Enbridge's operations span North America and Europe, with significant infrastructure in Canada and the US for Liquids Pipelines and Gas Transmission, and renewable energy projects in both North America and Europe.
• Sales Units: The Liquids Pipelines segment delivers approximately six million barrels per day, making it the largest global crude oil and liquids network. The Gas Transmission segment includes a peak day capacity of 12.0 billion cubic feet per day on the Texas Eastern system.
• New Product Launches: The Renewable Power Generation segment announced the Seven Stars Energy Project, a renewable power indigenous partnership focused on wind energy generation in Saskatchewan.
• New Production Launches: Enbridge completed the acquisition of US Gas Utilities, creating the largest natural gas utility franchise in North America. Additionally, the company sanctioned the expansion of the Gray Oak pipeline and incremental capacity at the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center.
• Future Outlook: Enbridge aims to continue investing in both conventional and lower-carbon platforms, with a focus on extending growth through secured projects and exploring new opportunities in LNG exports and offshore gas. The company is also committed to advancing its renewable energy footprint and supporting the energy transition.
• Strategic Initiatives: The company has undertaken several strategic initiatives to diversify and expand its operations. Key initiatives include the acquisition of US Gas Utilities, which involved acquiring The East Ohio Gas Company, Questar Gas Company, and Public Service Company of North Carolina. These acquisitions are aimed at diversifying and complementing existing gas distribution operations. Additionally, the company formed a joint venture with WhiteWater/I Squared and MPLX to develop natural gas pipeline and storage assets, enhancing its presence in the US Gulf Coast market. The acquisition of six Morrow Renewables operating landfill gas-to-RNG production facilities aligns with the company's lower-carbon strategy.
• Capital Management: The company completed long-term debt issuances totaling US$5.7 billion and $1.8 billion in 2024 to support its strategic initiatives and maintain liquidity. It also established an at-the-market equity issuance program, raising $2.5 billion through the issuance of common shares. The company renewed and extended approximately $17.6 billion of its credit facilities and increased its letter of credit facilities by $346 million. Additionally, the company paid $7.9 billion in dividends in 2024, reflecting an increase in its quarterly dividend rate.
• Future Outlook: The company plans to continue its focus on strategic acquisitions and joint ventures to enhance its operational footprint and support its growth strategy. It aims to maintain financial strength and flexibility by ensuring sufficient liquidity to meet future capital requirements. The company is also committed to its lower-carbon strategy, as evidenced by its investment in renewable natural gas facilities. Looking ahead, the company expects to fund its capital projects and acquisitions without needing to access capital markets for the next 12 months, should market conditions be unfavorable.
• Climate Change Risks: Enbridge faces significant challenges in transitioning to a lower-carbon economy, which involves policy, legal, technology, and market changes. The company is exposed to both physical and transition risks related to climate change, which could impact its reputation, strategic plan, business operations, and financial results.
• Operational Integration: The integration of recent acquisitions, such as the US Gas Utilities, presents challenges in terms of operational integration and achieving anticipated results.
• Regulatory Risks: Regulatory risks are significant, with potential changes in environmental laws and regulations that could increase compliance costs and impact operations.
• Market Risks: Enbridge is exposed to market risks, including fluctuations in commodity prices and interest rates, which could affect financial results. The company uses financial derivatives to manage these risks but acknowledges that its risk management policies cannot eliminate all risks.

CNX Resources Corp SEC 10-K Report - CNX Resources Corp, a leading natural gas exploration and production company focused on unconventional shale formations, has released its 2024 10-K report. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the company's financial performance, operational highlights, strategic initiatives, and the challenges it faces in the current market environment. CNX Resources Corp reported a total revenue of $1,266.8 million for 2024, a significant decrease from the previous year's $3,434.9 million. This decline was primarily due to lower natural gas prices and reduced sales volumes. The company recorded a net loss of $90.5 million, a stark contrast to the net income of $1,720.7 million in the prior year, largely driven by an unrealized loss on commodity derivative instruments. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a substantial decline, coming in at $(0.60) compared to $8.99 in the previous year, reflecting the net loss incurred during the period.CNX Resources Corp's operations are primarily centered on unconventional shale formations, including the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale, across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The company also has operations in Coalbed Methane (CBM) properties in Virginia. In 2024, CNX achieved total sales volumes of 550.8 Bcfe, with an average production of 1,504,956 Mcfe per day. The production mix was 90% natural gas and 10% liquids, with 93% of production coming from shale and 7% from coalbed methane.CNX holds approximately 528,000 net Marcellus Shale acres and 606,000 net Utica Shale acres, along with rights to extract natural gas from other shale and shallow oil and gas formations across several states. The company also has rights to extract CBM in Virginia from approximately 283,000 net CBM acres, primarily from the Pocahontas #3 seam.CNX owns or operates approximately 2,700 miles of natural gas gathering pipelines and several processing facilities, providing significant operational flexibility and cost advantages. The company is actively exploring environmental attributes such as carbon credits and methane capture credits, with a focus on monetizing waste methane capture through various programs. As of December 31, 2024, CNX employed 458 people, emphasizing training, safety, and diversity to support its operations and community engagement.Looking ahead to 2025, CNX expects annual sales volumes to be approximately 605-620 Bcfe, with capital expenditures projected between $450 million and $500 million. The company also anticipates sales of environmental attributes, net of fees, to be around $75 million.

Cabot tops list of Marcellus operators: Baird -- Cabot last month said it plans to spend $950mn on capital expenditures this year and will operate three rigs and employ two completion crews in the Marcellus. Cabot will soon have increased takeaway for its output on the 1.7 Bcf/d (48mn m³/d) Atlantic Sunrise pipeline, and through a deal to sell 338mn cf/d through the Cove Point LNG terminal. Cabot's fourth quarter production sales volumes reached 1.77 Bcf/d.EQT recently became the largest gas producer in the US by volume, unseating ExxonMobil, after it acquired Rice Energy late last year. EQT expects to bring its 1.9 Bcf/d Mountain Valley pipeline project and a related expansion of its Equitrans line into service in the fourth quarter. EQT's fourth quarter output topped 3.2 Bcf/d.All of the Marcellus producers analyzed by Baird had an increase in productivity over the past two years. Conversely, all operators in the nearby Utica shale had a decline in productivity.Chesapeake Energy topped the firm's Utica shale list, with an index value of negative six, showing the smallest downward trend. Chesapeake had an average gross revenue per well of $1.8mn.

East Coast Manufacturers Left in Cold Amid Scarce Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity - A lack of available natural gas pipeline capacity along the East Coast is hurting the productivity of manufacturers in the region, according to the Industrial Energy Consumers of America (IECA). (Image showing map of East Coast and Transco natural gas pipeline with key projects.) With rising consumption by power generators and LNG export terminals signing firm transport agreements, industrial end users with secondary firm or interruptible service increasingly face curtailed deliveries during demand spikes, such as the one provoked by Winter Storm Enzo last month. “From Georgia to New York, due to inadequate interstate natural gas pipeline capacity, the lack of coordinated decision making by states for the use of natural gas for new power generation, and decisions to shut down existing coal-fired power plants, there is no firm pipeline capacity available for the manufacturing sector,” IECA President Paul Cicio said in a letter to FERC.

Williams CEO Touts Record Transco Natural Gas Volumes, Says 2025 Drilling Uptick Unlikely - Williams transported record amounts of natural gas on its flagship Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. (Transco) asset in January amid stout heating, LNG and power generation demand, CEO Alan Armstrong said Thursday. Graph and chart showing Williams' estimates for Lower 48 natural gas demand growth. Transco this winter “has experienced unprecedented demand for both natural gas and, importantly, for peak capacity on our system,” Armstrong told analysts during the fourth quarter earnings call. The 10,200-mile Transco system spans from South Texas to New York City, and includes an extensive gathering and processing network for offshore production along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Energy Transfer Targeting Lake Charles LNG FID by Year’s End Amid Natural Gas Market Momentum - Energy Transfer LP is pushing toward a final investment decision (FID) for its Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana by the end of the year as the natural gas market is seen being propelled by regulatory changes and a deep hunger for the fuel, according to management. However, before it locks in partners and the last volumes of its 16.45 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity project, it may have to revisit previous agreements. While there is still work ahead, Co-CEO Marshall McCrea said the “stars are kind of aligning” for the proposed terminal he described as the “compelling LNG project on the Gulf Coast,” during a fourth quarter earnings call with analysts.

ConocoPhillips Still Mulling Sale of Port Arthur LNG Equity Stake - ConocoPhillips management said Thursday the company is making progress toward selling $2 billion of assets, including noncore properties in the Lower 48. The company acquired Marathon Oil Corp. in November and has been working to cut costs since then. Andy O’Brien, senior vice president of strategy, said ConocoPhillips already has agreements in place to sell some Permian Basin assets for $600 million, a deal set to be completed in the first half of this year.The company is also continuing to explore the sale of part of its 30% equity stake in the first 1.8 Bcf/d phase of Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur LNG project under construction southeast of Houston.

FERC Cites Trump EOs to Reverse Court Rulings on Rio Grande, Texas LNG --As the U.S. LNG industry awaits a boost in development from the Trump administration’s regulation-cutting blitz, FERC argued the president’s executive orders (EO) should also bring an end to a judicial roadblock for two developing export projects in South Texas. Last year was a decisive one for environmental groups challenging LNG authorizations in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC) Circuit, with judicial panels moving to vacate or remand Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approvals for three projects. Two projects, Rio Grande LNG and Texas LNG, were sidelined in the DC Circuit for a second time and threatened with vacatur as the court questioned FERC’s environmental justice (EJ) analysis process.

Polar Vortex Forces EIA To Hike 2025 US NatGas Price Forecast By 20% The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for February, which boosted its outlook for natural gas by 20% for 2025 after a polar vortex in January led to some of the largest withdraws from underground storage in years. "The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.13 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in January and reached a daily high of $9.86/MMBtu on January 17 ahead of a cold snap that spread across the United States, leading to above-average inventory withdrawals," EIA wrote in the STEO report. Here is EIA's outlook on NatGas prices, which was revised higher: "We expect the spot price to rise through 2026, averaging almost $3.80/MMBtu in 2025, up 65 cents from our January 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, and reaching nearly $4.20/MMBtu in 2026." This revision follows a massive cold blast across the Lower 48 in January, significantly increasing energy consumption.

Winter Weather, LNG Demand Raises Forecast Natural Gas Benchmark Prices — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
20%: The U.S. Energy Information Administration has increased its forecast average for spot Henry Hub to $3.80/MMBtu this year, a 20% increase from the prior estimate. Above average cold weather and larger than anticipated natural gas withdrawals are set to collide with increased LNG feed gas demand later in the year.
$15.184: Speaking of tightening markets, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark. Analysts cited competition for LNG and the continent’s rush to fill depleted gas storage facilities as driver for spot TTF price spikes this summer. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast average by $3.
1,457,860 Dekatherms: Feed gas nominations to Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Plaquemines LNG have reached new highs as the company continues to commission liquefaction blocks. Nominations reached 74% of operational capacity Tuesday, according to NGI calculations, surpassing rivaling nominations to Calcasieu Pass LNG. FERC on Monday granted the company permission to commission its eighth of 18 blocks.
2 cargoes: Kpler data indicates two ships are set to leave Sabine Pass LNG for import facilities in China despite the country’s tariffs on U.S. gas volumes. A cargo marketed by Cheniere Energy Inc. and purchased by Beijing Gas Group is expected to leave Louisiana Thursday. A second cargo contracted to Chinese private energy firm ENN Group is anticipated to leave berth on Saturday.
2.42 million tons (Mt): U.S. LNG terminals are anticipated to ship out 2.42 Mt the week of Feb. 10-16, according to predictive Kpler data. That would be a 0.35 Mt increase over last week and position the United States for a 0.91 Mt gain in LNG exports versus February 2024. The gain in LNG sendouts comes as additional spot cargoes hit the market from Plaquemines LNG and European buyers exponentially increase their activity compared to the last two winters.

US natgas prices climb 4% to one-week high on rising LNG flows, colder forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a one-week high on Monday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 13.5 cents, or 4.1%, to settle at $3.444 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 29. Even though prices were up about 5% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchange for the first time in nine weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. But with the return of extreme cold and freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output slid by 1.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.5 bcfd on Monday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. After extreme cold last month boosted heating demand to an all-time high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Without calling it a new all-time high, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a report on Monday that energy firms pulled nearly 1,000 bcf of gas out of storage in January. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 25. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 132.9 bcfd this week to 138.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.2 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Gas was trading at a two-year high of around $18 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and an eight-week high of around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Jump 6% to Two-Week High on Rising LNG Flows, Big Storage Draw -- (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a two-week high on Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage draw last week, rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for cold weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 100 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended February 7. That was a little over the 95-Bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 60 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 144 bcf for this time of year. Analysts said energy firms pulled less gas out of storage last week than the five-year normal because mild weather kept heating demand low. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21.2 cents, or 6.0%, to $3.777 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at 10:33 a.m. EST (1533 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since January 24. That would be the front-month's biggest daily percentage gain since February 3 when it jumped about 10% and puts the contract up for a fourth day in a row for the first time since December 2024. Before EIA released the storage report, the contract was trading up about 5%. Looking ahead, the 12-month futures strip was trading at $4.15 per MMBtu, its highest since December 2022. With mostly colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts that average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 138.4 Bcf/d this week to 145.9 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.3 Bcf/d so far in February, up from 14.6 Bcf/d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit 15.9 Bcf/d on Thursday, up from 15.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday and an average of 15.3 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. If correct, LNG flows on Thursday would top the current daily record of 15.8 Bcf/d on January 18. The latest LNG feedgas high came with flows to Venture Global's 2.6-Bcf/d Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana set to hit a record 1.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday-Thursday.

U.S. Natural Gas Climbs to Three-Week High on Rising LNG Flows, Colder Temps (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a three-week high on Friday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for colder weather lifting expected heating demand next week. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.7 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $3.725 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 24. That also put the front-month up for a fifth day in a row for the first time since November 2024. For the week, the contract was up about 13% after gaining about 9% last week. Looking ahead, the 12-month futures strip was trading at $4.16 per mmBtu, its highest since December 2022. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 3.2 bcfd over the last eight days to a preliminary three-week low of 103.6 bcfd on Friday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 23 before switching to near normal levels from February 24-March 1. With mostly colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 138.7 bcfd this week to 147.9 bcfd next week, before dropping to 134.4 bcfd in two weeks as the weather warms. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.0 bcfd on Thursday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 15.8 bcfd on January 18. That fresh record came as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a fresh high of 1.4 bcfd.

Entergy Texas Secures More Natural Gas Supplies to Meet ‘Extraordinary’ Power Demand -- An Entergy Corp. affiliate has reached a deal with Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) and Golden Pass LNG to receive natural gas supplies on the Trident Intrastate Pipeline to help meet growing power demand in Southeast Texas. None Entergy Texas said it has secured an unspecified volume of supplies on the 216-mile KMI system that would transport Permian Basin and other natural gas from the Katy hub to the LNG and industrial corridor near Port Arthur, TX. The utility, which serves three million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas with mostly gas-fired power, said the supply deal would improve reliability across Southeast Texas and be a “critical component” of its energy plan for the region.

Enbridge ends investigation into oil spill west of Madison – On the morning of Nov. 11, Enbridge, an international energy corporation, shut down their 6A oil pipeline after a worker discovered a loose valve at their Cambridge Exchange station. The station located in Oakland, WI — about 20 miles southwest of Madison — leaked 1,650 barrels of crude oil, roughly 69,300 gallons. This makes it one of the largest oil spills in Wisconsin history.Enbridge initially estimated to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources that only two gallons of oil had been spilled. Enbridgerevised their estimate to the DNR to 126 gallons Nov. 14. Then, on Dec. 13, Enbridge notified the public that they estimated 69,300 gallons of oil had leaked from the pipeline.The spill originated in an underground pump transfer pipe within the station. Enbridge spokeswoman Juli Kellner said in an emailed statement to The Badger Herald that a faulty connection between pipes in the transfer station was the cause of the spill. She said the connection had loosened over time and the spill occurred over a period.According to Enbridge’s final report to federal investigators, 0.10 barrels (4.2 gallons) of oil were believed to have seeped into groundwater. Enbridge claimed it has recovered only 960 (40,000 gallons) of the 1650 barrels spilled and has not stated if there would be an additional risk of oil leaching into groundwater.In the statement, Keller said no oil had been found in wells in nearby homes or on-site during testing after the spill.University of Wisconsin professor and expert on groundwater and underground aquifers Michael Cardiff said the amount of oil leaking into groundwater was not a significant amount. With 30,000 gallons yet to be recovered, more oil may leak into groundwater, Cardiff said.

Trump taps US oil advocate to lead public land bureau (Reuters) - The Trump administration has named Kathleen Sgamma, a vocal oil and gas advocate for Western states, to head up the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, which manages the use of the country's nearly 250 million acres of public lands. Sgamma heads the Western Energy Alliance, which represents oil and gas companies that operate on federal lands, and had been critical of Biden and Obama administration efforts to set aside public land for conservation instead of opening more acres for energy development. As head of the BLM, Sgamma will oversee federal leasing programs for oil and gas, mining, grazing and renewable energy development. Biden's administration slashed new oil and gas leasing on federal lands as part of his climate change agenda, and implemented a program to lease land specifically for conservation. Sgamma is expected to take steps to boost the number of quarterly oil and gas auctions in Western states as well as the acreage offered. Oil production on federal land accounts for about 11% of U.S. output. The administration also nominated Brian Nesvik, the recently retired director of Wyoming's Game and Fish Department, to be the director of the Fish and Wildlife Service. Nesvik had been critical of the Biden administration's decisions not to delist grizzly bears and other species from the endangered species list. The two nominees will serve under Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who earlier this month unveiled a suite of orders aimed at carrying out President Donald Trump's "energy dominance" agenda to maximize domestic energy and minerals production and slash red tape. That order also called for revoking three Endangered Species Act regulations that were finalized under the Biden administration and roll back a rule protecting migratory birds from unintentional killing. Conservation groups criticized the appointments, saying the nominees would damage environmental and wildlife protections in favor of more energy development. "Everyone who treasures the outdoors should oppose her nomination," said Taylor McKinnon, southwest director for the Center for Biological Diversity.

LNG Consumption Driving Natural Gas Demand, with AI Enhancing All-of-the-Above Energy, Says Shell -- LNG demand across the world is surging through the near term, with natural gas overall undergoing more moderate growth and oil peaking in the early 2030s, according to Shell plc. Shell's global LNG demand outlook. The world’s top natural gas trader issued its first indepth forecast in two years offering its view on global energy. Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios reviews primary energy resources, including natural gas and oil. And for the first time, researchers analyzed how the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) could positively impact energy systems. In 2023, “the focus of the world was on high energy prices, with the cost of electricity at record levels in much of Europe,” the researchers noted. “ChatGPT was four months old at the time, and while it is barely the tip of the AI iceberg, it has nevertheless been a game-changer in terms of public awareness of a new technology wave.”

TTF Rally Enters Fifth Week as Cold Weather Continues Across Europe –-- Cold weather and declining storage inventories continued to push European natural gas prices higher on Monday, extending a rally that’s lasted more than four weeks as the market remains fixated on supply concerns. Image of Gulf Coast netback pricing data. The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract gained 4% on Monday to finish at $17.54/MMBtu, its highest since February 2023. Storage inventories are at 49% of capacity, compared to 67.5% at this time last year and an average of 57% over the past five years. A cold weather forecast in Northwest and Southeast Europe early this week, as well as for parts of central Europe, southern Scandinavia and the UK, along with lower renewable power output, could further strain inventories.

EU shoots down rumors it will revive divisive gas price cap - — The European Union is not planning to include a gas price cap in its upcoming strategy to slash energy prices, a European Commission official said, pushing back on chatter that the EU executive was eyeing the measure.A proposal to limit the price of gas imports is “not on the cards” for the EU’s upcoming green industrial plans later this month, said the official, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely.The denial came after Europe’s energy traders and fossil fuel firms sounded alarm bells over talk that Brussels might return to the emergency gas price measure. On Tuesday, 11 industry groups — including Energy Traders Europe, Eurogas and the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers — sent a letter to Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen expressing their “strong concerns” around the move. Doing so would have “far-reaching negative consequences for the stability of European energy markets and the security of supply across the Continent,” they said, arguing it would undermine Europe’s credibility as a gas customer and shift trading outside the bloc.

Equinor Expects European LNG Demand to Surge, Sparking Asian Competition, Price Volatility - Equinor AS expects a tight global natural gas market in 2025 as European buyers try to pull more LNG cargoes to the continent this summer. Bar graph showing estimated LNG exports to the EU by trade type. Falling levels at European Union (EU) storage facilities and brief interruptions of Norwegian supply have contributed to pushing Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark to the mid-$16/MMBtu mark. TTF gains have also helped boost Asian LNG prices to the highest point in more than a year. CEO Anders Opedal said the company is monitoring what could be just the start of a volatile year in global gas markets amid the backdrop of surging demand in Asia.

TTF Rally Ends Amid Talk of Easing EU Natural Gas Storage Targets — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market Japan’s Inpex Corp. is aiming to boost its LNG trading volume from 7.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) to 8.5 Mt/y by 2027 by procuring additional supplies from North America and elsewhere, the company said in its year-end earnings report. The move comes as more governments across Asia have signaled a willingness to purchase more LNG from the United States amid rising tariff threats from President Trump. Inpex also said it is aiming to reach a final investment decision by 2027 on the 9.5 Mt/y Abadi LNG project and begin operations by the beginning of the 2030s. The company owns a 65% stake in the project.

Asian Buyers Increasingly Embrace U.S. LNG Contract Talks as Tariff Threats Rise - Natural gas buyers in several Asian countries, including Japan, India and Taiwan, are in talks to buy more LNG from the United States as the Trump administration targets the nation’s trade deficit with tariff threats. Bar chart showing global natural gas demand forecast by region.Government officials from the three Asian countries, among the world’s top LNG importers, have indicated they are willing to import more U.S. LNG.Trump met with Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba last week, while Taiwan signaled interest in more American imports after the president raised the possibility of tariffs. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to meet with the president on Thursday.

India LNG Imports: India's LNG imports likely to more than double by 2030 -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) Wednesday forecast India's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to more than double by 2030, fuelled by steady demand growth and slower-than-expected increase in local production.
LNG demand in the country will grow 11% annually between 2023 and 2030, twice the average rate of the past 10 years, IEA said in its latest report on India's natural gas sector. It predicts LNG consumption to rise to 64 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year by 2030, while overall gas consumption will surge 60% from the 2023 levels to 103 bcm. The city gas distribution sector is expected to drive the country's gas consumption growth. Heavy industries and refiners are also expected to aid gas demand.Domestic gas production is forecast to grow modestly. "Overall growth will be tempered by plateauing output from the (Reliance-BP's) KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC's Mumbai offshore fields, leaving production in 2030 (at just under 38 bcm) only around 8% higher than 2023 levels," IEA said.

IEA says Russia's oil and fuel exports revenues rose in January to $15.8 billion --Russia's commercial revenues from sales of crude oil and oil products in January rose by $900 million from December to $15.8 billion due to higher oil prices and stable export volumes, despite sanctions, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.The United States introduced the broadest package of sanctions so far in early January against Russian oil companies and tankers carrying Russian oil over Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. Some of the sanctions take effect later in February or in March.US President Donald Trump also pledged a policy of maximum pressure against Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. "Fresh US sanctions on Russia and Iran roiled markets at the start of the year but they have yet to materially impact global oil supply," the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report."Iranian crude oil exports are only marginally lower, while Russian flows so far continue largely unaffected."According to the IEA, Russia's crude oil and oil products exports last month were broadly on par with December's volumes, at around 7.4 million barrels per day, with crude oil supplies increasing by 100,000 bpd to 4.6 million bpd.Exports of oil products declined by the same amount to 2.8 million bpd.Year-on-year, Russia's crude oil and oil products exports declined in January by 60,000 bpd, IEA data showed.The agency also said that all the Russian oil was sold above the Western-imposed price cap of $60 per barrel last month. According to the IEA, Russia's oil production last month rose by 100,000 bpd to 9.2 million bpd, above the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million bpd.The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Wednesday that Russia's crude oil output declined by 0.3 per cent to 8.977 million bpd in January from 9.004 million bpd in December.

Russia investigates blast on oil tanker near St. Petersburg -Rosmorrechflot, Russia's Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport, shared in a Telegram post on Sunday that an investigation was underway over an explosion that happened on the Koala oil tanker in Ust-Luga port west of St. Petersburg. The blast happened in the engine room, as per preliminary information. Rosmorrechflot added that the crew was evacuated and no one was injured. It further added that there was no "spill of the cargo or a leak of oil products." It was also mentioned that oil spill containment booms were installed around the tanker, with authorities to now inspect "the underwater part of the vessel."

Finland Braces for Potential Oil Spill After Tanker Explosion in Northwestern Russia - Authorities in Finland said they are preparing for a potential oil spill in the Gulf of Finland after Russian officials reported an explosion aboard an oil tanker in the northwestern Leningrad region.“We’re closely following the news about the oil tanker damaged in the port of Laukaansuu,” Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo wrote on social media Sunday, using the Finnish name of Russia’s port of Ust-Luga on the Gulf of Finland.“Finnish authorities are investigating the situation. Finland has increased its oil spill response readiness,” Orpo added.The explosion occurred in the engine room of the oil tanker Koala at the port of Ust-Luga, west of St. Petersburg, on Sunday morning, according to Russia’s Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport (Rosmorrechflot).The crew evacuated the ship, which was built in 2003 and sails under the flag of Antigua and Barbuda, Rosmorrechflot said.Finland’s Gulf Coast Guard said it sent an inquiry to authorities in Russia but had not received a response as of Sunday afternoon, according to the Finnish public broadcaster Yle.“Typically, we do get replies to such inquiries,” field commander Tomi Waltari was quoted as saying.

No Leaks Detected After Oil Tanker Explosion, Russian Officials Say - The Moscow Times - An explosion aboard an oil tanker in the Gulf of Finland off the coast of northwestern Russia has not resulted in an oil spill, Russia’s Transportation Ministry said Tuesday.The Koala tanker, built in 2003 and flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda, is currently moored at the port of Ust-Luga with 130,000 metric tons of fuel oil.Fears of a potential spill emerged after an explosion occurred in the tanker’s engine room on Sunday morning. Neighboring Finland had said it was preparing for a possible oil spill and accused Russian authorities of failing to provide updates.“No oil product leaks were detected,” Russia’s Transportation Ministry said in a statement on Telegram, adding that booms had been installed around the tanker to contain any potential leaks.Emergency authorities delivered pumps from the Arctic city of Murmansk to begin the complex task of offloading the 130,000 tons of fuel oil.The Transportation Ministry also confirmed that the Koala was not at risk of sinking, its crew members were unharmed and the vessel’s cargo fuel tanks had not been damaged in the explosion.

Tanker in Russian Oil Trade Involved in Bunkering Spill off Turkey - An Indian-managed crude oil tanker that has been transporting Russian oil was involved in a bunkering accident today near Istanbul. Turkey’s Directorate General of Coastal Safety (KEGM) reports its teams are cleaning the surface waters. The tanker named Jag, was in the Ahirkapi Anchorage near Istanbul when the incident occurred. KEGM did not report how much oil was spilled but reported that it dispatched vessels in response. Two Turkish rescue boats, KEGM-3 and KEGM-4 were at the scene of the spill along with a tugboat and an environmental barge. AIS signals show the Jag had been holding off Turkey. It was bunkering with the vessel Gokdeniz alongside according to the pictures released online. Built in 2005, Jag has passed through multiple owners and managers operating with this identity and registered in Liberia since 2023. Its current manager is listed in the databases as Rhine Marine Services based in India. The vessel is 70,400 dwt. The tanker is reported to have made several calls in Russia. Last October, it took a cargo from Primorsk in Russia to Brazil’s Paranagua port. The tanker has a spotty history with its last listed inspection as 2023. At the time, it was in Aqaba, Jordan, and listed with 12 deficiencies which resulted in a two-day detention. The emergency generator was reported as not operating while the fire doors, the main, and auxiliary engines were listed as “not as required.” It was also cited for a lack of cleanliness in the engine room and oily mixtures. The ships three prior inspections were all in Russia and each also found a few deficiencies. No additional details were released by KEGM on today’s incident. The vessel’s AIS signal shows it remains at the anchorage off Istanbul.

Dark fleet tanker involved in oil spill in Türkiye :: Lloyd's List - A DARK fleet* tanker has leaked fuel oil after bunkering at anchorage at Ambarli, near Istanbul, in Türkiye. The Liberia-flagged, 70,426 dwt crude oil tanker Jag (IMO: 9266762) experienced a fuel leak while bunkering due to a technical failure on February 10, a Lloyd’s List Intelligence casualty report said. Pollution barriers were placed around Jag following the incident and an investigation opened. The LLI casualty report said a pollution fine was issued by the local municipality under Marpol regulations, and the harbour master temporarily suspended the tanker’s departure until the fine and cleaning expenses were paid. The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged suezmax Koala experienced several explosions in its engine room before preparing to sail but Russian authorities said there was no damage to its cargo tanks Read the full article here The Turkish Directorate General of Coastal Safety (KEGM) yesterday confirmed its patrol boats attended the scene, and said its teams were cleaning oil from the water’s surface. KEGM did not disclose how much oil had entered the water but said patrol boats KEGM-3 and KEGM-4 attended the scene along with a tug and environmental barge. Jag is on the Lloyd’s List Intelligence dark fleet watchlist, as it meets criteria such as being more than 15 years old and anonymously owned. Jag has made several calls to Russian ports in the past months, including Primorsk and Taman, near Kerch. The tanker remained at anchorage off Ambarli as of 1000 hrs on February 12.

Two more ships carrying Russian oil sinking in Pacific and Baltic - Maritime incidents occurred at opposite ends of Russia involve a Chinese cargo ship and Russian shadow fleet’s Antigua-flagged tanker, both carrying fuel oil, with one vessel grounded near Sakhalin and another at Ust-Luga port.On 15 December 2024, two Russian river tankers – Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 – sank in the Kerch Strait, spilling 4,300 tonnes of fuel. By January, oil-blackened beaches stretched from Russia’s Krasnodar Krai to occupied Crimea’s Sevastopol.Under Western sanctions, Russia increasingly relies on aging, foreign-flagged tankers in its shadow fleet, facing frequent technical failures and posing growing environmental and security risks, with these unregulated vessels also linked to the Baltic Sea sabotage. In a Pacific incident, a Chinese bulk carrier An Yang2 has run aground near Sakhalin island coast close to the Russian port of Nevelsk, Russian Telegram channels Baza andAstra reported on 9 February.According to Baza, the vessel, carrying 56 tons of diesel fuel, 706 tons of mazut – a low-quality heavy fuel oil, and 1,000 tons of coal, sustained hull damage in southern Sakhalin Oblast’s Nevelsk district facing northern Japan. The ship with 20 crew members reportedly ran aground south of Nevelsk port.Russia’s Emergency Ministry claimed there are no fuel spills, and work is underway to refloat the vessel. Local sources report communication difficulties with the Chinese crew due to translation issues, Telegram channels noted.In a Baltic incident, the Koala crude oil tanker, carrying the mazut, is sinking at the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad Oblast, Fontanka reported.Baza says the vessel carries 130,000 tons of fuel. While the channel’s sources claim multiple explosions occurred in the engine room, Fontanka has not confirmed this information.Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed a “technical incident during engine start-up” damaged the vessel’s engine room.The tanker, flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda, has a crew of 24, including four Russians, eight Georgians, and 12 Indonesians. The Mash Na Moike Telegram channel reports the vessel has run aground and the crew has been fully evacuated. Preliminary data indicates no fuel leaks.

Vast majority of Niger Delta oil spills due to third parties, Shell says before UK trial -- Shell should take responsibility for environmental damage in Nigeria caused by oil spills, a community leader said on Thursday as a pivotal hearing in lawsuits brought against the British oil major began at London's High Court. Godwin Bebe Okpabi, leader of the Ogale community in the Niger Delta, told Reuters that he was appealing to Shell's conscience to remediate the damage, which he said had, "destroyed our way of life." Thousands of members of the Ogale and Bille communities are suing Shell and its Nigerian subsidiary SPDC over oil spills in the Niger Delta, a region blighted by pollution, conflict and corruption related to the oil and gas industry. Decades of oil spills have caused widespread environmental damage, which has destroyed the livelihood of millions in the local communities and impacted their health. Shell, however, says the vast majority of spills were caused by illegal third-party interference, such as pipeline sabotage and theft, which is rife in the Niger Delta. A Shell spokesperson said the litigation, "does little to address the real problem in the Niger Delta: oil spills due to theft, illegal refining and sabotage, which cause the most environmental damage." Shell's lawyers said in court filings that SPDC recognises it is obliged to compensate those harmed by oil spills even if SPDC is not at fault, but not where it has already done so or where spills were caused by, "the malicious acts of third parties." But Okpabi said Shell had made billions of dollars in Nigeria – which he called "blood money" – and had a moral responsibility to prevent and remediate oil spills. "As we speak, people are dying in Ogale, my community," he said. "It is sad that Shell will now want to take us through this very expensive, very troublesome trial, claiming one technicality or the other." He was speaking outside the Royal Courts of Justice in London ahead of a four-week hearing to determine issues of Nigerian law and whether SPDC can be held liable for oil spills caused by third-party interference, ahead of a further trial in 2026. The case, parts of which began nearly a decade ago, has already been to the United Kingdom's Supreme Court, which ruled in 2021 that the case should be heard in the English courts. The lawsuit is the latest example of multinationals being sued in London for the acts of overseas subsidiaries, following a landmark 2019 ruling in a separate case.

OPEC Oil Output Falls in January on Nigeria, Iran Production Dip – The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil output fell in January for a second month, a Reuters survey found, as a drop in exports from Nigeria and Iran offset a rebound from the United Arab Emirates where field maintenance had curbed output in December. OPEC pumped 26.53 million barrels per day last month, down 50,000 bpd from December’s revised total, with Nigeria and Iran posting the largest drops, the report said. The modest decline in output came as the wider OPEC+ group is keeping production cuts in place until the end of March due to global demand concerns and rising output outside the group. OPEC+ last Monday decided to stick with its plan to start raising output in April. Nigerian production slipped by 60,000 bpd, the survey found, reflecting lower exports, although domestic usage is increasing as the Dangote refinery ramps up. Iran’s output, which hit the highest since 2018 last year despite US sanctions, also fell by 60,000 bpd. It may soon be curbed by tighter sanctions from the administration of the US President Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs and other analysts have forecast. Output in OPEC’s top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, edged lower. OPEC’s biggest rise of 90,000 bpd, came from the UAE. A source said partial field maintenance continued in January, having started in December. While the survey indicated the UAE and Iraq are pumping below their targets and December data provided by OPEC’s secondary sources puts them not far above, other estimates such as those of the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest they are pumping significantly more. Libya’s output rose by 40,000 bpd, continuing a recovery after the resolution of a dispute over control of the central bank that had led to production cuts. The country is exempt from OPEC+ agreements to limit output.

Oil lifts; investors await clarity on tariffs, sanctions - Oil prices climbed on Monday, even as investors weighed United States President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand.By 3 pm AEDT (4 am GMT) Brent crude futures rose $0.47 or 0.6%, to $75.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $0.37 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.37 per barrel. Despite Monday’s uptick, the market remains under pressure after logging a third consecutive weekly decline over global trade concerns.Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, further escalating trade tensions. The move follows last week’s tariff announcements on Canada, Mexico, and China, though duties on U.S. neighbours were temporarily suspended. Meanwhile, China’s retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. exports are set to take effect on Monday, with no signs of progress in negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Oil and gas traders are reportedly seeking waivers from Beijing for U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.Trump stated on Sunday that the U.S. is making progress with Russia on ending the Ukraine war but did not provide specifics regarding discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Further complicating supply dynamics, the U.S. Treasury last week imposed new sanctions targeting Iranian crude shipments. The measures apply to individuals and tankers involved in transporting millions of barrels of Iranian oil annually to China.

Oil Futures Rose Despite Prevailing Tariff Concerns -- Oil futures climbed higher Monday after hitting their lowest level following the announcement of higher-than-expected build on crude and gasoline stocks in the week ended Jan. 31, despite the uncertainty fueled by the trade tariff war led by the Trump administration. Oil futures moved to bullish ground Monday morning, reversing multi-day losses experienced over the past three weeks due to concerns on trade tariffs the Trump administration imposed on imported goods from China last week. The one-month delay on retaliatory tariffs over imports from Canada and Mexico contributed also to the uncertainty regarding the potential impact of those actions on the U.S. economy, particularly with respect to inflation. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce on Monday "the United States will impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, including from Canada and Mexico and other import duties later in the week," the AP reported. Trump is also expected to announce "reciprocal tariffs"-- "probably Tuesday or Wednesday," which means the U.S. would impose import duties on products in cases in which another country has levied duties on U.S. goods, as reported by the AP. Analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady until there is more clarity about the economic implications of tariffs in the coming weeks. On Wednesday, the market will be focused on the release of the Consumer Price Index for January, which is expected to be around 2.8%, compared to 2.9% recorded in December. Last week, the Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on an international network for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars to China, as part of the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to reduce its oil exports to zero. Additional sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude are expected to put upward pressure on global oil prices due to expectations of tight supplies. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract rose by $0.84 to $71.84 barrel (bbl) while the April ICE Brent futures contract increased by $0.81 to $75.47 bbl. March RBOB futures contract rose by $0.0036 to $2.1086 gallon while ULSD futures contract for March delivery increased by $0.0200 to $2.4508 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.20% to 108.130 against a basket of foreign currencies.

Concerns Over a Potential Global Trade War - The oil market moved higher on Monday following three weeks of losses despite concerns over a potential global trade war following U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff plans of targeting steel and aluminum. Over the weekend, President Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. The market seemed to dismiss the latest statement after President Trump previously suspended the tariffs he had announced on Canada and Mexico until March 1^st. Traders mainly dismissed the expected announcement as they see an equal chance the tariffs could be walked back or even increased at some point in the near future. The oil market posted a low of $70.84 on the opening and retraced some of its previous losses posted last week. The market extended its gains to $1.54 as it posted a high of $72.54 in afternoon trading. The March WTI contract traded sideways during the remainder of the session and settled up $1.32 at $72.32. The April Brent contract settled up $1.21 at $75.87. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.01 cents at $2.4509 and the RB market settling down 8 points at $2.1042. U.S. President Donald Trump said he will introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., in addition to existing metals duties. He is expected to sign executive orders on the new tariffs on Monday or Tuesday. He also said he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, to take effect almost immediately, applying them to all countries and matching the tariff rates levied by each country. According to government and American Iron and Steel Institute data, the largest sources of U.S. steel imports are Canada, Brazil and Mexico, followed by South Korea and Vietnam. In a separate Fox News interview, Trump said Canada’s and Mexico’s actions to secure their U.S. borders and halt the flow of drugs and migrants are insufficient ahead of a March 1^st tariff deadline. He has threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on all Mexican and Canadian imports unless America’s two largest trading partners take stronger actions. He paused the tariffs until March 1^st after some initial border security concessions from the two countries, with Mexico pledging to add 10,000 National Guard troops to its border and Canada deploying new technology and personnel and taking new anti-fentanyl steps.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.5 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 14^th, increasing available refining capacity by 84,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.29 million bpd in the week ending February 21^st.The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported Monday morning that the U.S. saw a total of 248 HDDs on an oil home heating customer weighted basis during the week ending February 8^th. This was 9 HDs less than normal for the week but 34 HDDs more than the same week a year ago. For the current week the CPC is predicting a total of 258 HDDs, 9 HDDs more than normal and 58 HDDs more than the same week a year ago.

Oil prices tick higher following US tariffs on metals -Oil prices ticked higher on Tuesday as markets absorbed the latest round of U.S. tariffs, with Washington imposing a 25% levy on all steel and aluminium imports. The move, aimed at supporting domestic industries, raised fears of an economic slowdown that could weigh on global energy demand.By 3:00 pm AEDT (4:00 am GMT), Brent crude futures edged up $0.20 or 0.3%, to $76.07 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April gained $0.14 or 0.2%, to $72.15.President Donald Trump’s decision to enforce the tariffs “without exceptions or exemptions” is expected to affect millions of tons of imported steel and aluminium from key suppliers, including Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. The trade measure heightens concerns about a broader economic impact, as tariffs tend to slow industrial activity and could weaken oil demand.Adding to market unease, Trump recently postponed a 25% duty on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as a 10% tariff on Canadian crude, until March 1, pending further negotiations. Meanwhile, the U.S. has introduced additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate with its own levies, including a 10% duty on US crude imports. In the energy sector, preliminary data suggested a rise in U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles last week, while distillate inventories likely declined. Investors awaited reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for confirmation.Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts noted that U.S. trade policies, combined with its commitment to enforcing tougher sanctions on Iran, could disrupt demand in oil-intensive sectors. The bank suggested that ongoing economic uncertainty might prompt OPEC+ nations to extend current production cuts."Over just the last five weeks, oil market participants have had to deal with new sanctions on Russia's oil industry, tariffs on Mexico and Canada - which were quickly suspended - additional tariffs and counter-tariffs on China, and more sanctions on Iran, including a return to the 'maximum pressure campaign' with the stated aim of 'driving Iran's oil exports to zero'," Morgan Stanley stated in a client note.The investment bank warned that escalating trade disputes could disproportionately impact oil-reliant industries, dampening global demand and influencing market stability in the months ahead.

Concerns That Trade Tariffs Could Affect Global Economic Growth - The oil market on Tuesday extended its gains amid concerns over oil supply despite worries that trade tariffs could affect global economic growth. The market was well supported by a Bloomberg News report on Monday regarding Russia’s oil production in January declining further and falling below its OPEC+ quota. According to the Bloomberg, Russia’s output declined to 8.962 million bpd in January. The market was also supported amid the news of a power outage at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea, which in the past has caused a cut to the field’s output. The crude market posted a low of $72.31 in overnight trading before it rallied higher. The market retraced almost 38% of its move from a high of $79.39 to a low of $70.43 as it traded to a high of $73.68 early in the morning. However, the market’s gains were limited by the news of U.S. President Donald Trump raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. to 25%, a measure that could trigger a global trade war. It erased some of its sharp gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close as it awaits the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports. The March WTI contract settled up $1.00 at $73.32 and the April Brent contract settled up $1.13 at $77.00. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 6.37 cents at $2.5146 and the RB market settling up 4.31 cents at $2.1473. The EIA reported in its Short Term Energy Outlook that world oil output in 2025 is forecast at 104.6 million bpd, up 200,000 bpd from a previous estimate, while output in 2026 is forecast to increase by 1.6 million bpd to 106.2 million bpd, which is up 300,000 bpd from a previous estimate. U.S. oil production is poised to set a larger record this year than previous estimates. It said now expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd. It forecast that U.S. oil output in 2026 will increase by 140,000 bpd on the year to 13.73 million bpd. The EIA sees U.S. oil demand in 2025 at 20.5 million bpd, unchanged from a previous forecast and is expected to increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.6 million bpd in 2026. The EIA sees 2025 world oil demand at 104.1 million bpd, unchanged from a previous estimate and demand in 2026 is forecast to increase to 105.2 million bpd, up 100,000 bpd from a previous forecast. The EIA sees WTI averaging $70.62/barrel in 2025, up from a previous forecast of $70.31/barrel and its 2026 forecast at $62.46/barrel, unchanged from a previous estimate. The 2025 price of Brent crude is forecast at $74.50/barrel, up from a previous forecast of $74.31 and the 2026 price at $66.46/barrel, unchanged from a previous estimate.OPEC’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, said decisions made by OPEC take a long-term view of the global markets and are aimed at providing price stability.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that if Hamas did not release Israeli hostages by noon on Saturday a ceasefire deal would end and the Israeli army would resume its offensive in the Palestinian enclave until the militant group is defeated. Earlier, On Monday, Hamas announced it would stop releasing Israeli hostages until further notice over what it called Israeli violations of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, raising the risk of reigniting the conflict.Iran alerted the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday to what it described as “reckless and inflammatory statements” by U.S. President Donald Trump threatening the use of force against the country and warned that “any act of aggression will have severe consequences.”

Oil prices climb to 2-week high on supply worries, US tariffs check gains (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up to a two-week high on Tuesday as sanctions raised concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies and on rising Middle East tensions, outweighing worries that trade tariffs would boost inflation and dampen global economic growth.Brent futures rose $1.13, or 1.5%, to settle at $77.00 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.00, or 1.4%, to settle at $73.32.That put both crude benchmarks up for a third day and at their highest closes since Jan. 28."With the U.S. bearing down on Iranian exports and sanctions still biting into Russian flows, Asian crude grades remain firm and underpin the rally from yesterday," PVM oil analyst John Evans said.U.S. sanctions targeting tankers, producers and insurers have significantly disrupted shipments of Russian oil to leading importers China and India.Also supporting crude prices were U.S. sanctions on networks shipping Iranian oil to China after U.S. President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" on Iranian oil exports last week.Adding to supply jitters is the possibility of renewed fighting in the oil-rich Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that if Hamas did not release Israeli hostages by noon on Saturday a fragile ceasefire in Gaza would end. Those comments followed a demand by Trump on Monday for Hamas to release all hostages by midday Saturday or he would propose cancelling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and "let hell break out." Trump also said he might withhold aid to Jordan and Egypt if they do not take Palestinian refugees being relocated from Gaza. Trump is meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah on Tuesday. Oil price gains were kept in check by fears that Trump's latest tariffs could dampen global growth and energy demand.On Monday, Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the United States to 25% "without exceptions or exemptions."Mexico, Canada and the European Union condemned Trump's decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports next month, a move that has fanned fears of a trade war."Tariffs and counter-tariffs have the potential to weigh on the oil-intensive part of the global economy in particular, creating uncertainty over demand," Morgan Stanley said in a note. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers that free trade still makes sense, though it was not the central bank's role to comment on tariff or trade policy but to react to how it impacts the economy. Tariffs can cause prices and inflation to rise. The Fed uses higher interest rates to combat rising prices. So long as the Fed and other central banks keep interest rates higher for longer, borrowing costs will remain elevated, which can slow economic growth and ultimately demand for oil.

Oil prices drop 1% as U.S. crude stockpiles rise by 9.4 million barrels - -- Oil prices declined by 1% on Wednesday, reversing a three-day rally, as industry data showed rising U.S. crude stockpiles, while the Federal Reserve signaled a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year. Brent crude fell 67 cents (0.87%) to $76.33 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 75 cents (1.02%) to $72.57 per barrel. The drop comes after three consecutive sessions of gains, with Brent rising 3.6% and WTI increasing 3.7%.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy remains strong, and the Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates, though it will act if inflation slows or labor market conditions weaken. Higher interest rates typically increase borrowing costs, which can reduce economic activity and lower oil demand.American Petroleum Institute (API) data reported a 9.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ending February 7. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.51 million barrels, while distillate stocks dropped by 590,000 barrels.The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data later on Wednesday.Investors are awaiting U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data with forecasts indicating core inflation may slow to 3.1% annually, while the headline rate is expected to remain at 2.9%. Meanwhile, the EIA increased its U.S. crude production estimate, projecting output to reach 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, up from its previous forecast of 13.55 million bpd, while leaving its demand forecast unchanged.

WTI Extends Losses After 3rd Straight Weekly Crude Build After a strong run in the last week, oil prices are lower this morning following API's report last night indicated a large increase in US crude stockpiles adding to pressure as the market continued to watch for more trade salvos from President Trump. Also contributing to the decline was US consumer price data that came in hotter than expected, causing a surge in the dollar surged that makes commodities priced in the currency less appealing. “The oil market is trading with marginal declines this morning as the API numbers released overnight were largely bearish,” ING analysts including Ewa Manthey said in a note. Will the official data confirm API's? API

• Crude +9mm
• Cushing +400k
• Gasoline -2.5mm
• Distillates -600k

DOE

• Crude +4.07mm (+4.5mm exp)
• Cushing +872k
• Gasoline -3.035mm
• Distillates +135k

The official crude inventory data showed a sizable build but less than expected and less than half that reported by API (which appears to have played catch up from the prior week). Gasoline stocks tumbled for the first time in 13 weeks... Graphs Source: Bloomberg Including the 249k barrel addition to SPR, total crude inventories rose for the 3rd week in a row... Source: Bloomberg US Crude production rose modestly last week, back up near record highs... Source: Bloomberg WTI was trading around $72.00 ahead of the official print and is holding it for now...

Oil sinks 2% after Trump calls Putin, Zelenskiy to discuss end to war in Ukraine (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than 2% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump took the first big step toward diplomacy over the war in Ukraine he has promised to end, a war that has supported oil prices on concerns about global supplies.Brent futures settled down $1.82, or 2.36%, at $75.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $1.95, or 2.66%, to $71.37.U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 at their session low. The declines follow three days of gains, during which Brent climbed 3.6% and WTI rose 3.7%.U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the war in Ukraine in phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. "Trump doing peace talks, I think that has taken some of the risk premium out of oil prices right now," In a post on his social media platform, Trump said he and Putin had "agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskiy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now."Zelenskiy's office said Trump and Zelenskiy had spoken by phone for about an hour. Investors also tried to gauge the Federal Reserve's next moves on cutting interest rates following comments on Tuesday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and after data on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in January."The combination of higher inflation and the possibility of peace (in Ukraine) is causing a bit of a sell off in the market at the moment," said Price Futures Group's Flynn.Powell said the economy is in a good place and the Fed is not rushing to cut rates further, but is prepared to do so if inflation drops or the job market weakens.Consumer price data released by the U.S. Labor Department showed surprisingly strong U.S. inflation in January, stoking fears that a heating economy and looming tariffs could undercut hopes for rate cuts. Higher rates can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil."The inflation numbers came in hot, reducing the chances of the Fed cutting rates from September to December," said Price Futures Group's Flynn.U.S. crude oil stocks posted a larger-than-expected build last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Gasoline inventories meanwhile posted a surprise draw while distillate stocks posted a surprise build. Elsewhere, Russia may be forced to throttle back its oil output in the coming months as U.S. sanctions hamper its access to tankers to sail to Asia and Ukrainian drone attacks hobble its refineries.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that global oil demand will rise by 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and by 1.43 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.The EIA increased its estimate for U.S. crude production while leaving its demand forecast unchanged. It now expects U.S. crude oil output to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd.The Trump administration named Kathleen Sgamma, a vocal oil and gas advocate for Western states, to head up the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management, which manages the use of the country's nearly 250 million acres of public lands.

Oil Prices Drop Below $75 As Trump Pushes For Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks --Oil prices took a hit, falling below $75 per barrel, after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced his efforts to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Trump stated on social media that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to begin peace negotiations, with their teams set to start discussions immediately. Trump also mentioned that he would be reaching out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to inform him about the planned talks. As news of the potential peace discussions spread, oil prices reacted immediately:

• Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped by 0.8%, settling at $74.24 per barrel.
• The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell by 0.9%, closing at $70.47 per barrel—down from its previous session price of $71.16 per barrel.

One major reason for the drop in prices was the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories grew by 4.1 million barrels last week, reaching a total of 427.9 million barrels. This was much higher than the 2.8 million barrels increase that analysts had predicted. The larger-than-expected increase in oil storage suggests that demand for oil in the U.S.—the world’s biggest oil consumer—may be slowing down, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, concerns over U.S. economic policies also played a role in the decline of oil prices. Investors are worried that Trump’s potential return to the White House could disrupt the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ongoing efforts to control inflation. Recent U.S. inflation data showed that:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in prices over time, rose by 0.5% in January compared to the previous month.
• On a yearly basis, inflation stood at 3%, exceeding market expectations.
• This was the fastest monthly increase in prices since August 2023 and the highest annual inflation rate recorded since July 2024.

The rising inflation means that interest rates in the U.S. could remain high for longer than expected, increasing fears of an economic slowdown. A slowing economy typically results in lower energy consumption, which can reduce demand for oil. Meanwhile, the possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine also influenced the oil market. If a peace agreement is reached, it could lead to the lifting of some Western sanctions on Russian oil exports. This would increase the global oil supply, further pushing prices down. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that he spoke with Trump about the prospects of peace. Trump also stated that he had discussed the matter with Putin, who reportedly supported the idea of working towards a resolution. Adding to the downward pressure on oil prices, OPEC’s latest monthly report revealed that its crude oil production had declined in January. The organization reported a drop of 121,000 barrels per day, bringing its total production to 26.6 million barrels per day. This supply reduction may help prevent further price declines but is unlikely to offset the larger forces affecting the market. In summary, oil prices are facing downward pressure due to multiple factors: rising U.S. crude inventories, concerns about economic policies and inflation, and the potential for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could lead to increased oil supply from Russia.

Talks on a Potential Peace Deal Continued to Pressure the Oil Market The news regarding U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreeing to hold further talks on a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to pressure the oil market on Thursday. The oil market extended Wednesday’s losses and breached its previous lows as it posted a low of $70.22 in overnight trading. In addition to the possibility of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the market was also pressured by the expectations that President Trump will outline plans for reciprocal trade tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. goods. The builds in crude oil stocks reported by the API and EIA also continued to weigh on the market. The market, however, bounced off its low and retraced its losses and posted a high of $71.48 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled in a sideways trading range and ended the session down 8 cents at $71.29 and the April Brent contract settled down 16 cents at $75.02. The product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 33 points at $2.4487 and the RB market settling up 2.11 cents at $2.1107. U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a roadmap on Thursday for charging reciprocal tariffs on every country that puts duties on U.S. imports. He said “We want a level playing field.” A White House official said the tariffs were not going into effect on Thursday but could begin to be imposed within weeks as Trump’s trade and economic team study bilateral tariff and trade relationships. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, said the administration’s studies on the issue would be completed by April 1st. The IEA, in its latest monthly oil market report, made a minor upward revision to its oil demand forecasts, pegging 2025 global demand growth at 1.1 million bpd, up from a previous view of 1.05 million bpd. It continues to see supply growing faster. It said global supply is on track to increase by 1.6 million bpd in 2025, led by the Americas, even in the absence of OPEC+ unwinding output cuts. The Kremlin said that there is political will on both the Russian and U.S. sides to find a settlement and end the Ukraine war, following talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. Later, the Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump might speak again by phone before meeting in person. Russia said that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in talks to end the war, but there would be a separate U.S.-Russian strand to the negotiations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said it could take up to several months to arrange a meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, possibly in the Saudi capital Riyadh. Ukraine and its European allies demanded that they be included in any peace negotiations, after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and said Ukraine could neither have all of its land back nor join NATO. The leader of Yemen’s Houthis, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said they will immediately take military action if the U.S. and Israel attack Gaza.

Oil settles flat, pares early losses as tariffs delayed (Reuters) - Oil prices settled flat on Thursday, paring early losses of more than 1% as U.S. tariff announcements were delayed until at least April, feeding hope that the world could avoid a trade war that would pressure economies and energy demand. Brent crude futures settled at $75.02 a barrel, down 16 cents, or 0.21%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) finished down 8 cents, or 0.11%, at $71.29 a barrel. Prices had tumbled earlier as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine kept traders concerned that an end of sanctions on Moscow could boost global energy supplies. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered commerce and economics officials to study reciprocal tariffs against countries that place tariffs on U.S. goods. Their recommendations are not due until April 1, allowing more time for negotiations with trading partners, market participants said. "We saw a big recovery in prices on tariffs not going into effect until April," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "That will allow time for negotiation." On Wednesday, Brent and WTI fell more than 2% after Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him. Trump ordered U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine. The oil price decline over the past 24 hours looks to be driven by a change from worries about tight supplies to concern about sufficient supply, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that some expect an increase in Russian energy exports. Russian oil exports could be sustained if workarounds to the latest U.S. sanctions package are found, after Russian crude production rose slightly last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest oil market report. The Ukraine news and Wednesday's U.S. oil inventories data offset higher U.S. inflation numbers that could drive the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025, said PVM analyst John Evans. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and sanctions imposed on its crude exports after its invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago have supported higher prices. ANZ analysts said on Thursday that oil prices declined on news of the potential peace talks because of "optimism that risks to crude oil supplies would ease", pointing to the U.S. and EU sanctions. A build in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's biggest crude consumer, also weighed on the market. U.S. crude stocks rose more than expected last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

Oil settles lower, supply worries ease on hopes for Ukraine peace deal (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down on Friday on prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that could ease global supply disruptions by ending sanctions against Moscow, but losses were limited by a delay in U.S. immediate reciprocal tariffs.Brent futures settled down 28 cents, or 0.37%, at $74.74 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 55 cents, or 0.77%, to $70.74.For the week, Brent gained 0.11% while WTI lost around 0.37%. President Donald Trump ordered U.S. officials this week to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him.Lifting sanctions on Moscow in the event of a peace deal should boost global energy supplies.Russian oil exports could be sustained if workarounds to the latest U.S. sanctions package are found, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest oil market report.This week, Trump ordered commerce and economic officials to study reciprocal tariffs against countries that place tariffs on U.S. goods and to return their recommendations by April 1."Positive development on the trade front in light of U.S. tariff delays paves the way for some recovery in oil prices this morning, as the risk environment warms up to the prospects of further trade consensus being reached," Also limiting the losses, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview that the U.S. could apply maximum economic pressure on Iran.Trump had driven Iran's oil exports to near zero during his first term after reimposing sanctions.Global oil demand has surged to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 1.4 million bpd from the prior year, JPMorgan analysts said on Friday."Initially sluggish demand for mobility and heating fuels picked up in the second week of February, suggesting the gap between actual and projected demand will soon narrow," the bank said.U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row for the first time since December 2023, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by two to 588 in the week to February 14.

Brent oil prices eke out weekly gain as U.S. targets Iran exports and tariff fears fade Global benchmark crude prices posted their first weekly gain in a month Friday, finding support as the U.S. looked to reduce Iranian crude exports and after President Donald Trump did not immediately impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Prices for both global and benchmark crude, however, ended the trading session lower as traders continued to fret over uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on oil demand.

• -- April Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell by 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $74.74 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling 0.1% higher for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery fell 55 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $70.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ending down 0.4% for the week. That was its fourth weekly fall in a row.
• -- March gasoline RBH25 shed 1% to $2.09 a gallon, down 0.7% for the week, while March heating oil HOH25 added 0.5% to $2.46 a gallon, contributing to a weekly rise of 1.3%.
• -- Natural gas for March delivery NGH25 settled at $3.73 per million British thermal units, up 2.7% Friday, for a 12.6% rise on the week.

Global benchmark crude prices ended slightly higher for the week while U.S. oil prices posted a weekly loss - but both have fallen in the month so far as traders weigh Trump's day-to-day comments and policy changes, and how they could impact the supply of, and demand for, oil. Trump's tariff threats "continue to pose a notable risk to global oil demand," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, told MarketWatch. "Crude's downtrend since mid-January may also extend on further progress in talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, along with the potential ramp-up in U.S. and OPEC+ output." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. wants to reduce Iran's oil exports by more than 90%, according to Bloomberg, which cited a Friday interview with Fox News. That would further Trump's expressed desire for "maximum economic pressure" on Tehran. Meanwhile, Trump on Thursday ordered his administration to study ways to impose tariffs that would match levies on U.S. products imposed by other countries - a process that Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee for commerce secretary, is charged with completing by April 1. That proved a relief to investors, who had feared the immediate imposition of tariffs. Oil had seen pressure previously on fears that tariffs would dampen economic growth and crude demand. "Tariffs, at least for the short term, are on the backburner," with levies on Canada to be decided at the end of the month and other tariffs still to be determined, . Risks for oil prices are to the "downside from here," . Crude had also seen pressure after Trump earlier this week said he and President Vladimir Putin of Russia had agreed to begin talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war. The news of progress toward negotiations to end the war in Ukraine shaved off part of the "fear bid" in prices over oil supplies from Russia. But prices haven't completely tanked yet, . "As always, it boils down to the basics: supply and demand," he said. "Nothing has fundamentally shifted on that front yet." Prices likely have more room to run lower, Innes told MarketWatch. But while they may trend lower, "expecting an immediate freefall would be a mistake," because "getting a deal inked is far from a slam dunk." A resolution to end the Russia-Ukraine war may lead the U.S. to lift sanctions on Russia, leading to more supply on the global market, analysts have said. But even if greater supply is on the horizon, global demand, along with OPEC+ policies and broader macroeconomic forces, will remain the key drivers of oil prices, Innes said. Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, climbed nearly 13% for the week to mark their highest settlement in three weeks. "More winter weather reports are shaking up the market - in fact, we might not see spring until March or even April, which is causing a dramatic shift in the natural-gas world and an end to the supply glut,"

Saudi Arabia Slams Netanyahu for Suggesting Its Territory Be Used for Palestinian State - Saudi Arabia has rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion that Saudi land could be used for the establishment of a Palestinian state.In a recent interview, Netanyahu suggested the Saudis could create a Palestinian state, saying they have “a lot of land over there.”The Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that Riyadh “stresses its categorical rejection to such statements that aim to divert attention from the continuous crimes committed by the Israeli occupation against the Palestinian brothers in Gaza, including the ethnic cleansing they are subjected to.”The ministry said that the Kingdom “affirms that the Palestinian people have a right to their land, and they are not intruders or immigrants to it who can be expelled whenever the brutal Israeli occupation wishes.”Saudi Arabia has also strongly rejected President Trump’s calls for the US to “take over” Gaza and his claim that it would normalize relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state. In its statement rejecting Netanyahu’s comments, the Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated its support for a two-state solution.The ministry also thanked “brotherly countries” for condemning Netanyahu’s suggestion since it received widespread denunciation from other Arab states.The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said that it “condemns in the strongest terms the irresponsible and totally rejected statements issued by the Israeli side, which incite against Saudi Arabia…in direct violation of Saudi sovereignty and a flagrant violation of the rules of international law and the Charter of the United Nations.”

Israel Expands 'Open Fire Order' in West Bank, Resulting in Surge of Civilian Killings - The Israeli military command overseeing operations in the occupied West Bank has expanded its “open fire orders,” leading to a surge in the killing of Palestinian civilians by IDF troops, Haaretz reported on Monday. One of the orders allows Israeli troops to fire on unarmed Palestinians if they are “messing with the ground.” The claim is that this order is necessary to prevent explosives from being planted, but sources toldHaaretz it has made soldiers “trigger happy.”The other order allows Israeli troops to open fire on any vehicles approaching Israeli military checkpoints that are leaving combat zones to force them to stop. Since the combat zones are residential areas, this means the IDF can open fire on civilians trying to flee.These orders led to the killing of a husband and his wife, Sundus Shalabi, who was eight months pregnant. Initial reports said Shalabi’s husband was “critically injured” by the Israeli military attack, but Haaretz said he was shot dead.Sources told Haaretz that the husband was shot and killed while driving near Tulkarm, and Shalabi was shot dead after managing to get out of the car. According to an IDF investigation, Shalabi was shot because she “looked suspiciously at the ground.” No weapons or explosives were found in the car, which was carrying their two children. Palestinian officials said paramedics couldn’t attempt to save Shalabi’s unborn baby because IDF troops blocked the ambulance. There have been many other incidents of civilian deaths in the Israeli military’s current operation in the West Bank, dubbed “Iron Wall,” which was launched on January 21. In one incident, IDF troops shot a two-year-old girl in the head while she was inside a house eating dinner with her family.On Saturday, Saddam Hussein Iyad Rajab, a 7-year-old boy, died of wounds he sustained by Israeli gunfire 10 days earlier. The boy was shot over the claim that he was “messing with the ground.”The Haaretz report also revealed the Israeli military has been using Palestinian civilians as human shields to check for explosives inside buildings, a practice that became common in Gaza.The report said another Palestinian woman, 21-year-old Rahaf al-Ashkar, was killed on Sunday by an explosive charge placed at the entrance of her home that was placed by the IDF. The Israeli troops placed the explosive charge after they ordered anyone inside to leave over claims a “terrorist” was inside. The explosive was set off when al-Ashkar opened the door.

Israel Expands Syria Occupation, Bombs Several Military Sites in Southern Syria - Concern among residents of southern Syria continues to grow as the Israeli occupation of the area escalates, and gives the appearance of being long-term, if not permanent. More Israeli ground troops have entered Syria in recent days, and expanded control over villages near the city of Quneitra.Israel invaded Syria after the regime change in December, and has taken a large amount of land, mostly in the demilitarized zone which previously existed between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. That invasion has expanded into parts of Syria’s regular territory since then, particularly in Quneitra Governorate. Israeli troops took the Quneitra courthouse and main governorate building, but withdrew from them last week after destroying a number of the records held there. That withdrawal may have been temporary though, as troops have since taken the village of Ain al-Nourieh.(Map of situation in Syria from Southfront.press) Israel has recently been constructing military outposts inside Syrian territory. New building and demolition of existing infrastructure in the area gives the appearance that this is indeed a military adventure they don’t intend to end any time soon.In addition to expanding the ground operation, Israel has been launching a growing number of new airstrikes and drone strikes against military sites across southern Syria. This included an attack on a military airport in Suwayda Governorate, and a drone strike against a former military storage site in Daraa Governorate.Details are scant on what was targeted in either of those cases, but the IDF has talked about a third attack carried out on Saturday just south of Damascus. They claim that strike was targeting a Hamas weapons depot. They further said that they would continue to attack Hamas sites on all fronts.Israel had carried out airstrikes against Syria intermittently for decades, and after the regime change in December, attacking military sites at an increasing rate. The strikes were meant to destroy the former government’s military assets, though such strikes seem to be picking up the pace again this weekend, particularly in the south.

Syria Warns Kurds Will Be Excluded From National Dialogue If They Don’t Disarm and Submit - The fighting between the Kurdish SDF and the forces of Turkey and its proxy the SNA continues apace in northern Syria with no signs of ending. Turkey targeted civilian infrastructure, leading to power outages and water cutoffs for some 100 Kurdish villages around Tabqa.Turkey’s interest in Syria is driven by the Erdogan government’s desire to tamp down Kurdish autonomy in the region. Turkey is pushing the new Islamist government to do more against the Kurds, and the Turkish Defense Ministry has offered to “relocate” Turkish ground troops into northern Syria to that end.So far, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the new government in Syria, hasn’t moved militarily against the Kurds directly, but it has repeatedly denounced the idea of Kurdish autonomy and is stepping up the rhetoric. (Map of the situation in Syria from Southfront.press)The Syrian government has issued a statement warning that if the Kurds don’t agree to disarm and submit, they will be excluded from the meetings on national dialogue between various Syrian parties. The meetings are meant to produce a statement related to the eventual creation of a constitution.The spokesman of that national dialogue committee meanwhile has insisted that the Kurdish SDF “do not represent our people,” and that only groups that the HTS believes do represent Syria will be allowed to participate.Turkey is keen for the new Syria to eliminate all autonomy, particularly the Kurdish sort. In the past month Turkey has threatened a full invasion of Syria if the SDF isn’t totally eliminated. Turkey has also urged the HTS government to take control of the ISIS prison camps in the northeast, which are also run by the SDF. Groups within the Kurdish autonomous government in Syria, the AANES, have emphasized the importance their ability to continue protecting their rights within the new Syria. This includes ongoing training exercises for their fighting forces, which runs contrary to Turkey’s vision for the region.

UN Says Israel Must Stop Killing Lebanese Civilians Trying to Return Home - A group of UN experts have issued a statement on the ceasefire in Lebanon today, expressing outrage at Israel’s flagrant violations, including the killing of civilians trying to return to their homes, and the systematic destruction of those homes during the nominal cessation of hostilities.In the first 60 days of what was intended to be a 60-day ceasefire, Israel killed at least 57 civilians, and destroyed 260 properties across southern Lebanon. The number killed has only grown since the ceasefire was extended by the US and Israel in late January, with 24 killed and 120 wounded in a two-day period when the ceasefire was supposed to be ending.Destroying civilian homes has also been on the uptick during the extended period of the ceasefire, and hardly a day goes by where there is not a new report of bombing or burning civilians homes isn’t reported.The extension bumped the ceasefire, and by extension the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, up to February 18. That date is fast approaching though, and Israeli officials are confirming they’re not leaving then either. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Derner confirmed Thursday that Israel would at the least retain five hill-top surveillance posts they started establishing just in the last couple of weeks.The details of this additional extension of the “ceasefire” remain up in the air. Lebanon is rejecting any further extension, though Israeli media is reporting that the US has agreed to a “long term” Israeli military presence on Lebanese soil. The US has yet to confirm this.Whatever the details of Israel’s continued occupation after February 18, however, IDF spokesman Avichai Adraee has declared that Lebanese civilians are still forbidden from returning to their villages of origin “until further notice.”This policy is part of what the UN experts warn has “precipitated a humanitarian crisis” in Lebanon’s south and prevented people from coming up with any durable solutions for the large number of people displaced by the war.

Israel amassing troops in and around Gaza ahead of Hamas hostage release deadline --Israel is amassing troops in and around the Gaza Strip ahead of the upcoming Hamas hostage release, which the Palestinian militant group threatened to delay after accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the Gaza ceasefire will end if Hamas does not release the remaining hostages this upcoming weekend. “In light of Hamas’ announcement of its decision to violate the agreement and not release our hostages, I instructed the IDF last night to amass forces inside and around the Gaza Strip,” Netanyahu said in a Tuesday statement, referring to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). “This operation is currently underway and will be completed as soon as possible.” Hamas announced on Monday that they would delay the release of hostages slated for the upcoming weekend, accusing Israel of violating the terms of the ceasefire. President Trump said over the weekend and on Monday that if Hamas does not release all of the remaining hostages by Saturday, he might end the fragile ceasefire agreement that went into effect on Jan. 19, warning “all hell is going to break out.”“The decision I passed in the Cabinet unanimously is as follows: If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will resume intense combat until Hamas is decisively defeated,” Netanyahu said Tuesday following a four-hour meeting with his security Cabinet. Hamas has released 21 hostages. In exchange, Israel has freed hundreds of prisoners in return. Hamas took around 250 people hostage during their Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which initiated more than 15 months of fighting before the three-phase agreement was struck between the two sides. As part of the first phase of the plan, which is scheduled to last for six weeks, Hamas, a designated terrorist organization by the U.S., released three Israeli hostages on Saturday. All of them appeared to be in worse condition than those who were freed previously, prompting concerns from Israeli officials. “We all expressed outrage at the shocking condition of our three hostages who were released this past Saturday,” the Israeli prime minister said Tuesday. Netanyahu also “welcomed” Trump’s demand for the release of hostages on Saturday, and he said we “all welcomed the president’s revolutionary vision for Gaza’s future.” Trump has floated the idea of the U.S. taking control of the war-torn enclave and rebuilding it from scratch. The White House has said the Palestinians living there would be temporarily relocated while the rebuilding takes place. He also suggested the Palestinians would not want to return, but then said during a Fox News interview that they would not be allowed to come back to Gaza.