oil prices hit fresh four year lows; distillates inventories at a 16 month low with imports of distillates at a 34 week low

US oil prices cut their early losses after falling to a fresh four year low midweek, after Trump paused the implementation of most of his announced tariffs for 90 days…after falling 10.6% to a four year low of $61.99 per barrel last week after Trump imposed a new round of steep tariffs on all our trading partners, leading to a sharp global asset selloff, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery extended last week's losses in overseas trading on Monday, falling more than 4%, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude, but rallied over $1.90 to a high of $63.90 in mid-morning trading in New York following reports of what the White House called “fake news” that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries, except China. but just as quickly gave up those sharp gains to settle $​1.29 lower at another four year low of $60.70 a barrel on worries that Trump's latest trade tariffs could push economies around the world into a recession…oil prices rebounded more than 1% on global commodity markets on Tuesday, as bargain hunters bought despite ongoing trade tensions initiated by the U.S. and OPEC+’s plans to boost output in May, but sold off once again during the New York session, as fears of a recession due to the impact of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs offset a stock market rebound seen earlier in the day, and settled down $1.12 or 1.85% at another four year low of $59.58 a barrel after Trump added 50% more to China’s tariffs after Beijing failed to lift its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday set by Trump…oil prices plunged as much as seven per cent to an over four-year low in Asian trading on Wednesday after China announced additional tariffs on US goods in retaliation against Trump's tariff policy, then extended their losses after the EIA reported another large crude inventory build, but bounced off four-year lows hit early in the session and ended the session up $2.77, or 4.65% to settle at $62.35 a barrel after Trump said he would further increase tariffs on China but pause the tariffs he announced last week for most other countries…oil prices resumed their downward trajectory in Asian trading Thursday as U.S. President Trump escalated the trade war with China, despite announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs aimed at other countries, then erased Wednesday’s sharp gains in New York trading as the markets reassessed the details of a planned reprieve in the sweeping U.S. tariffs. and turned their focus on the escalating U.S.-China trade war, and settled $2.28 lower at $60.07 a barrel amid continued uncertainty related to trade tariffs…oil prices moved lower in overseas trading on Friday after China hit back at the U.S. tariffs by raising the Chinese tariff on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, escalating the U.S.-China standoff, but then rallied by more than $1 during the US trading session after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States could end Iran's oil exports as part of an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to terms over its nuclear program, and settled $1.43 higher at $61.50 a barrel, thus cutting it’s losses to 0.8% for the week….

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for the fourth time in five weeks on an unseasonably large addition to inventories and ​on ongoing concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on demand…after falling 5.6% to $3.837 per mm BTU last week while also swept up in the broad market selloff following Trump’s tariff announcement, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for May delivery opened 3.0 cents higher on Monday to start a volatile session, plagued by concerns over ongoing trade wars due to the Trump Administration’s new tariff policies, but tumbled ahead of the closing to settle down 18.2 cents at a seven week low of $3.655 per mmBTU on record well output and worries that Trump's tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for energy…natural gas prices started Tuesday 8.8 cents higher, but then resumed the previous day’s withdrawal amid bearish fundamentals, bearish short-term weather forecasts and demand, and an ongoing tariff war, and ended 19.0 centslower at $3.465 per mmBTU, despite lighter production estimates, as trade disputes cast a cloud over the market…natural gas prices opened 8.3 cents lower on Wednesday and struggled to find direction throughout the morning, as market fundamentals continued to compete with the ever-changing tariff landscape, but jumped higher during afternoon trading to finish 35.1 cents or more than 10% higher at $3.816 per mmBTU, rising along with Wall Street and other energy prices after Trump said he would temporarily lower new tariffs on many countries, even as he raised them further on imports from China…natural gas prices opened 7.8 cents lower on Thursday and quickly fell to trade along $3.640 leading up to the weekly storage report, as traders braced for what was expected to be another bearish storage addition, then tumbled further to settle 25.9 cents lower at $3.557 per mmBTU under the weight of another seasonally heavy storage build and an unfolding trade war’s risks to natural gas demand….natural gas prices continued lower early Friday as traders considered another escalation in the U.S. trade war with China amid a broader fundamental breakdown, but pared th​ose losses and briefly traded positive as traders kept an eye on record U.S. LNG exports and coming summer demand as potential bullish catalysts, before settling 3.0 cents lower at $3.527 per mmBTU on a small increase in daily output and worries that Trump's trade war with China could reduce economic growth and demand for energy around the world, and thus finished 8.1% lower for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending April 4th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 57 billion cubic feet to 1,830 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the fourth unseasonal increase in a row, which still left our natural gas supplies 450 billion cubic feet, or 19.7% below the 2,280 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on April 4th of last year, and 40 billion cubic feet, or 2.1% less than the five-year average of 1,870 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 4th of April over the most recent five years….the 57 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was less than the 65 billion cubic foot addition to storage that traders were expecting ahead of the report, but was way more than the 16 billion cubic foot that was added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week in April of 2024, and also more than the average 17 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early April week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 4th indicated that after another sizeable d​rop in our oil exports, we again had surplus oil left to add to our stored crude supplies for the ninth time in eleven weeks, and for the 17th time in forty weeks, despite an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 277,000 barrels per day to average 6,189,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average 271,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 637,000 barrels per day to average 3,244,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,945,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 4th, an average of 360,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 597,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 122,000 barrels per day lower at 13,458,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 17,000,000 barrels per day during the April 4th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,627,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 4th, an average of 69,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 404,000 barrels of oil per day were being added to the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending April 4th averaged a rounded 968,000 barrels per day more than what what was added to storage plus our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -968,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 273,000 barrels per day of oil demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 695,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are garbage….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 404,000 barrel per day average increase in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 365,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while ​39,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixty-sixth SPR increase in the past seventy-six weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,059,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 6.0% less than the 6,508,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 122,000 barrels per day lower at 13,458,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 118,000 barrels per day lower at 13,020,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day lower at 441,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.7% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 38.7% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 86.7% of their capacity while processing those 15,627,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 28th, up from their 86.0% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still down from the 91.7% utilization rate of eleven weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then the onset of US refinery’s usual Spring maintenance…. the 15,627,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.0% less than the 15,782,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending April 5th of 2024, and were 2.9% less than the 16,100,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 5th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 87.5%, also somewhat low for this time of year…

Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was significantly lower, decreasing by 338,000 barrels per day to 8,946,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 4th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 62,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 5.2% less than the 9,442,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending April 5th of last year, and was 12.0% less than the gasoline production of 10,169,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending April 5th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 19,000 barrels per day to 4,658,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 164,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that modest production decrease, our distillates output was fractionally more than the 4,639,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 5th of 2024, but was 7.5% less than the 4,5,038,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending April 5th, 2019…

With this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the eighth time in nine weeks, decreasing by 1,600,000 barrels to 235,977,000 barrels during the week ending April 4th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,551,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell again this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 8,475,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of gasoline fell by 59,000 barrels per day to 794,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 30,000 barrels per day to 778,000 barrels per day.…Even after thirty-five gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were 3.3% higher than last April 5th’s gasoline inventories of 228,531,000 barrels, and were about at the the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the modest decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the 19th time in twenty-nine weeks, decreasing by 3,544,000 barrels to a sixteen month low of 111,082,000 barrels during the week ending April 4th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 264,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies decreased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 321,000 to 4,006,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 119,000 barrels per day to 1,228,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of distillates fell by 80,000 barrels per day to a 34 week low of 69,000 barrels per day...But after 38 inventory withdrawals over the past 64 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 5.6% below the 117,728,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 5th of 2024, and were about 9% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the decrease in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 14th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 25th time over the past year, increasing by 2,553,000 barrels over the week, from 439,792,000 barrels on March 28th to a 39 week high of 442,345,000 barrels on April 4th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 6,165,000 barrels over the prior week… After that increase, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were 28.4% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the first weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this April 4th were 3.3% less than the 457,258,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on April 5th of 2024, and 6.0% less than the 470,549,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on April 7th 31st of 2023, but were 7.3% more than the 412,371,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on April 1st of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count decreased by seven during the week ending April 11th, as rigs targeting oil fell by nine, while natural gas rigs and miscellaneous rigs were up by one each...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of April 11th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 4th) and this week’s (April 11th) count, the third column shows last week’s April 4th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 12th of April, 2024…

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Infinity's Utica Oil Output Rising as Play M&A, Expansion Underway - Newly public Infinity Natural Resources expects to ramp production up by 44% to some 33,500 net boe/d this year from its oily Utica Shale property in Ohio and gassy Marcellus Shale leasehold in Pennsylvania.The volume would rise from the company’s fourth-quarter average of 23,300 boe/d—80% from Ohio—that consisted of 6,900 bbl/d of oil, 4,600 bbl/d of NGL and 70.7 MMcf/d of natural gas, according to its Securities and Exchange Commission filings.Infinity received $286.5 million net from its IPO in January that sold 15.2 million shares,including an overallotment, at $20 a share.The stock quickly rose to $23.But it tumbled to less than $15 in mid-day trading April 7 as world markets reacted to the U.S.’ nearly worldwide tariffs and oil collapsed from $75/bbl on President Trump’s inauguration Jan. 20 to $60. Truist Securities analyst Bertrand Donnes reported in late March when oil was $70 that the Ohio Utica oil play might be expanding.“After recent conversations with public and private operators, we believe a newer area—Columbiana County—has begun to see sizable results,” Donnes wrote at the time.“We believe part of the new well performance upside could be attributed to recent heavier completions and potentially slightly changed chemicals [frac recipes].”Generally of the play, he wrote, “Utica wells continue to improve with notable liquids and gas results in several counties.”The highest production rates have been coming from along the north-south border of the oil and wet-gas fairways in Carroll, Stark, Guernsey, Noble and Harrison counties, he added. Houston-based, privately held Encino Energy recently won its $219,000 bid for 62.5 acres in the Leesville Wildlife Area in Carroll County in a state auction. Other Ohio Utica producers include privately held Ascent Resources, publicly held E&PsGulfport Energy and Expand Energy—all based in Oklahoma City—and Houston-based public EOG Resources. Formerly known as Chesapeake Energy, Expand regained an Ohio oil position, after having exited to Encino a half-decade ago, when merging in 2024 with Southwestern Energy Co.Hart Energy reported March 7 that Ascent told investors it would consider an IPO.An X user, @AndUpstream, replied, “I’ve long awaited someone locking Ascent, Encino and Gulfport management teams in a room with nothing but a hammer until only one management team is left.”More recently, Truist’s Donnes reported Infinity is looking to grow both organically through D&C’ing its leasehold and inorganically via M&A, “in contrast to many others that are holding production flat and letting pricing dictate free cash flow.”KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Tim Rezvan also reported he was awaiting “news on Infinity expanding its Ohio oil footprint via acquisition to gain scale.”A deal could boost Infinity’s trading multiple “as investors begin to appreciate the company's knowledge of and drilling expertise in the Utica shale,” Rezvan wrote.

Ohio adds $27 million to fund for plugging ‘orphan’ oil and gas wells by Jake Zuckerman – State officials have freed an additional $27 million to plug some of the tens of thousands of idled and abandoned oil and gas wells around the state. The vote Monday from the Ohio Controlling Board, a panel of state officials that approves certain fiscal transfers, grows the Ohio Department of Natural Resource’s budget line for such “orphan well” plugging to more than $73 million. That’s funded via oil and gas permit fees and severance taxes.Unplugged wells can leak methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the air, along with certain volatile organic compounds that can damage human and environmental health.The exact number of unplugged wells around the state is unclear. ODNR has said there are nearly 20,000 “documented” orphan wells around the state. The Ohio River Valley Institute, a think tank focused on industry and the environment in the region, has estimated a much higher count between 160,000 and 180,000 in Ohio, part of the estimated 538,000 unplugged and abandoned wells in the region.What’s clearer is the slow pace of progress. The ODNR’s budget request to the Controlling Board states that its orphan well program is “on track” to plug 475 wells this fiscal year. A related program that reimburses landowners who contract privately for well plugging on their property has secured 335 commitment forms.Meanwhile, bipartisan legislation signed by former President Joe Biden provides $326 million to Ohio through 2030 to plug orphan wells on state and private lands, according to the ODNR. The state has received nearly $83 million of that so far.Cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer reached out to ODNR spokespersons for estimates of the number of wells the federal program will pay to plug in the coming year.

Work begins on Utica Shale Academy's welding lab -— State and local officials gathered in Salineville March 20 as the Utica Shale Academy officially broke ground for its second welding lab. Community leaders, educators and stakeholders were present at the site, next to the current exterior welding lab at 83 E. Main St., to celebrate the latest addition to the community school’s campus. PDDM Solutions of Canonsburg, Pa., was awarded the initial $907,000 bid for the structure with FMD Architects Inc., of Fairlawn performing the work, but the addition of extra welding labs could bring costs closer to $1.5 million. Officials said funding was provided through an Appalachian Community Grant and work should be finished in August. Superintendent Bill Watson joined leaders for a brief reception at the Williams Collaboration Building and said the building would help train today’s students for tomorrow’s workforce. “Utica Shale Academy has had a very nice uptick in participation. We went from 50 students five years ago to 170 students now,” he said, adding that the facilities offer skills and trades for students to succeed. He thanked U.S. Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, state Rep. Monica Robb Blasdel, R-Columbiana, and state Sen. Al Cutrona, R-Canfield, for their support. Watson noted that the current outside welding facility likely was the only one of its kind in the state and students learn to work in various conditions to prepare them for the job. “It’s making our Ohio workforce stronger and can allow more students to weld. We never imagined having more than 80 students wanting to weld,” he added. “The Utica Shale Academy is a community coming together to raise our youth.”

Texas Gas Project to Build ~180 Miles of Greenfield Pipe in OH Utica -- Marcellus Drilling News - Last week MDN brought you the great news that Boardwalk Pipeline Partners launched an open season to offer an extra 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity along its 5,975-mile Texas Gas Transmission pipeline network that stretches from Ohio to Louisiana, running through Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Arkansas along the way (see Texas Gas Pipe Expanding to Flow Extra 2 Bcf/d of M-U Gas to La.). What we didn’t know at the time (not referenced in the Boardwalk announcement) is that the Borealis Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion Project, as it is called, will include building roughly 180 miles of new greenfield pipeline that spans nearly the entire length of Southern Ohio.

A New Path for Gas Out of Appalachia? - Natural gas production in Appalachia was on a sharp upward trajectory during the early part of the Shale Era but has stalled in recent years as pipelines out of the region have become much more cumbersome to build. Boardwalk Pipelines subsidiary Texas Gas Transmission (TGT) announced an open season on its Borealis project last week. The project would create an extension of its existing pipeline, allowing an incremental 2 Bcf/d of Marcellus and Utica gas to flow out of the region and onto Texas Gas’s existing system that flows to Louisiana. The Borealis line would extend nearly the entire length of Southern Ohio, bringing natural gas from Clarington, OH on the West Virginia border to the start of the legacy TGT system at Lebanon, OH. As seen in the graph below, around 0.7 Bcf/d of Appalachian gas currently makes its way to TGT during non-winter months. If the Borealis project comes to fruition it would more than triple the capacity for Marcellus and Utica outflows on the system.

21 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 31 – Apr 6 - Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Mar 31 – Apr 6, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells increased by two from the previous week. Last week, 21 new permits were issued, with 12 going to the Keystone State (PA). Expand Energy, via its merged companies Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, scored five permits, with three permits for Southwestern in Susquehanna County and two for Chesapeake in Bradford County. Greylock Energy received three permits for drilling in Potter County. Range Resources also received three permits to drill wells in Lycoming and Washington counties. BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | ENCINO ENERGY | GREYLOCK ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY |INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | POTTER COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY

Will Refracking Come to the Marcellus/Utica Region? - Marcellus Drilling News - For at least a decade, MDN has brought you stories about refracs, also called re-entries and re-completions, where a driller re-enters an existing and declining well to access more rock and pump new life out of it (see our refrac stories here). Last July, we brought you an article about refracs, detailing the two main types, how they are handled, and why refracing is growing in popularity (see Refracs Becoming Common Practice for Oil & Gas Operators). While we've seen a few experiments with refracs in our region, are there signs that more of this activity could soon come to the M-U?

WhiteHawk Energy Expands Marcellus Shale Holdings with $118 Million Acquisition — WhiteHawk Energy, LLC has completed its $118 million acquisition to significantly expand its assets in the Marcellus Shale region. The transaction doubles the company’s ownership interests across 475,000 gross unit acres in Washington and Greene counties, Pennsylvania, bolstering its holdings in one of the most prolific natural gas regions in the United States.The acquisition, effective January 1, 2025, adds production from more than 1,400 wells and increases WhiteHawk’s total mineral and royalty interests in the Marcellus and Haynesville Shale plays to approximately 1,050,000 gross unit acres. This includes over 3,400 producing wells across its portfolio. Key operators for the newly acquired assets include leading industry names such as EQT, Range Resources, and CNX Resources, signaling continued strong performance and reliability for the acquired properties. Daniel C. Herz, CEO of WhiteHawk, emphasized the strategic value of this purchase, stating, “The 2025 Marcellus Acquisition provides WhiteHawk additional production, line-of-site development, undeveloped inventory, and cash flow from our core Appalachia position. This acquisition consolidates our position in the Marcellus Shale, which offers proven and predictable output alongside the lowest break-even drilling costs in the U.S.”

Trump Signs EO Targeting NY, Other States Blocking Domestic Energy Yesterday, President Trump signed four more executive orders (EOs) dealing with energy issues. Three of the four EOs targeted reviving the declining coal industry, which Trump calls “beautiful, clean coal.” We’ll briefly cover the coal EOs below. However, it was the noncoal EO that caught our attention. Trump signed the Protecting American Energy from State Overreach EO, which removes unlawful and burdensome state-level impediments to domestic energy production. Trump tasked Attorney General Pam Bondi to challenge state laws that may be “unconstitutional, preempted by Federal law, or otherwise unenforceable” to go after states like New York, which is mentioned explicitly in the EO.

Will China’s 84% Tariffs Destroy U.S. Propane & Ethane Exports? -Marcellus Drilling News –In what has to be the stupidest trade move in history, China will enact an 84% reciprocal tariff on imports of U.S. goods beginning today. The increase was in response to a 104% tariff that the U.S. placed on imports of Chinese goods, which President Trump raised to 125% yesterday. China will LOSE this trade war. However, if the Chinese want to self-immolate their economy and persist with the tariff war, it has the potential, according to RBN Energy, of “destroying” propane and ethane exports from the U.S. Why?

Bad Blood - Burgeoning U.S.-China Trade War Has Potential to Devastate Propane, Ethane Markets -Starting on April 10, China will enact an 84% reciprocal tariff on imports of U.S. goods. This increase was in response to the 104% tariff that the U.S. placed on imports of Chinese goods, which was subsequently raised to 125% by President Trump on April 9. China is likely to retaliate further. Unlike China’s February retaliatory tariffs of 10%-15% on U.S. oil and LNG, this time NGLs and all energy products are included. These higher tariffs have the potential to destroy propane and ethane exports from the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential impact of China’s reciprocal tariffs on the propane and ethane markets. Like all of President Trump’s tariff wars, this front has been subject to rapid escalation. On February 1, he signed Executive Order 14195, imposing a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, which took effect on February 4. That same day, China imposed a wide range of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., including a 15% tariff on LNG and a 10% tariff on oil. At that point, there was no action on other energy products, so propane and ethane, along with other NGLs, were effectively exempt. But that was not the end of it. On March 4, the president increased the tariffs by another 10%. In retaliation, China announced a 15% tariff on U.S. goods. Then, as part of the “Liberation Day” proclamations of April 2, the U.S. tariff on Chinese goods was increased by another 34%, making the total tariff rate 54%. China followed with a retaliatory 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S., including oil, LNG, and all energy products. The situation escalated again on April 8, when President Trump formalized a further increase of 50% on imports of Chinese goods to the U.S., to go into effect April 9 if China did not rescind its most recent increase, pushing the total tariff rate to 104%. China vowed not to back down. As proof of that, China announced an additional 50% tariff on U.S. imports on April 9, bringing the total tariff to 84%. On April 9, President Trump announced a pause on retaliatory tariffs for all countries except China, whose tariff he further increased to 125%. China is likely to increase its own retaliatory tariff on April 10. China imports very little crude oil from the U.S., and those volumes can easily be rerouted so that other countries replace U.S. barrels. China also does not import much LNG or refined products from the U.S. However, liquified petroleum gas, or LPG (propane and butane), plays a much larger role, ranking as the second-highest import into China by value, exceeded only by electronic products.As a result, the tariffs have the potential to be a major disruptive force in global NGL markets. The U.S. sends about 20% of its propane exports to China. Most of that is used in the production of propylene via propane dehydrogenation (PDH). An 84% tariff on U.S. propane will devastate PDH economics, likely forcing China to drastically cut imports of U.S. propane. That, in turn, will place serious downward pressure on U.S. propane prices. China will try to replace as much U.S. supply as possible, but doing so would require uneconomic cargo rerouting — only possible if U.S. propane prices drop significantly at the point of origin to remain competitive.The outlook for ethane is even more dire — at least for China. Chinese petrochemical crackers that use ethane as a feedstock rely exclusively on U.S. volumes. The tariffs will make U.S. ethane uneconomical, and these facilities will face two choices: absorb the cost or shut down. If shutdowns occur, the U.S. won’t be able to export those ethane volumes and will have to reject the surplus molecules into the natural gas stream. Almost 50% of U.S. ethane exports go to China, all used in ethylene production. The U.S. is China’s only possible source of ethane imports as it is the only country that exports waterborne ethane. With that background out of the way, let’s look a little closer at the impacts on LPG and ethane. China was the second-largest importer of U.S. propane in 2024 at 311 Mb/d (red bar in left graph in Figure 1 below). The amount of butane in 2024 was much smaller at 26 Mb/d, or 5% of total U.S. exports, making China the sixth-largest importer of U.S. butane (red bar in right graph). Total U.S. exports of LPG to China were 337 Mb/d. Looking at these statistics from China’s point of view, it imported roughly 1.2 MMb/d of LPG, with just over 35% of that total volume coming from the U.S., making it the single-largest supplier of LPG to China by a wide margin. The UAE placed second in terms of total LPG exports to China, accounting for 14%. The current trading situation between China and the U.S. is much different than the last time there was an escalation of trade tensions between the two countries in 2018. At that time, the U.S. exported 79 Mb/d of propane to China, making it the fourth-largest recipient of U.S. propane. China retaliated against the first round of Trump administration tariffs seven years ago by imposing tariffs targeting a range of U.S. goods, including energy exports like propane. In response, Chinese propane buyers didn’t absorb the added cost — they simply scaled back their U.S. purchases and bought from other countries. The result was a sharp decline in U.S. LPG exports to China — China imported only 9 Mb/d of LPG from the U.S. in 2019. At that time, the volume coming from the U.S. was small enough that global trade was able to reroute itself such that China got less from the U.S. and the rest of the world got more from the U.S.This time around, however, the volume coming from the U.S. is too large to solve the entire problem by rerouting global trade. China now buys more than five times as much propane from the U.S. as it did in 2018, too much to turn to a different source to replace all the volumes. This is particularly true for China’s PDH market, which consumes most of the imported propane (see Where You Gonna Go?). Nearly all of the propylene produced at PDH plants in China is used to produce polypropylene, and it takes 1.32 pounds of propane to produce 1 pound of polypropylene.Taking a closer look at propane economics, China calculates its tariffs on a Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) basis. The price of Mont Belvieu non-TET propane was 73.9 c/gal on April 8, as reported by OPIS, and the terminal fee is about 5 c/gal. Shipping rates are quoted in $/ton and were at about $88.5/t on April 8, which translates to 17 c/gal. These prices and costs are changing rapidly in the wake of the tariff news and have fallen sharply since the start of the month. Given these inputs, the total landed cost of propane in China would then be 176.5 c/gal, including a tariff at 84% adds 80.6 c/gal to the total cost. This will increase the cost of a pound of propylene via PDH by 22.8 c/lb, or 67%, and the price of a pound of polypropylene would increase by 25 c/lb, or 60%. See Figure 2 below for a breakdown of the costs associated per pound of polypropylene. The question then becomes: Who absorbs this cost increase? It is not clear in the case of propane. The U.S. must export its propane volumes to prevent supply from backing up. If it does not, propane storage levels will get too high, which would cause propane prices in the U.S. to drop so low that either the tariff becomes irrelevant in PDH costs or other buyers from around the world emerge. As a result, the U.S. price of propane will have to adjust to ensure that the exports leave as required. On the other hand, to keep up with polypropylene demand, China needs the U.S. propane, so not all of the market power is with the Chinese buyers. In real life, this means that the cost increase will be spread between the market players. U.S. prices may go down to clear the market, but Chinese buyers may pay higher prices to keep the propane flowing. The shipping market will also be affected if trade flows slow or if ships are rerouted to use less-efficient trade routes, leading to them making up some of the difference in prices. All of this assumes that polypropylene producers can pass on the hike in their costs due to the tariff, which then assumes that the producer of the plastic good can absorb the increased feedstock price. Then if this product gets exported back to the U.S., there will be an additional 125% tariff added, which is then absorbed by who? This level of discussion is best left to professional economists; however, it means a lot of higher-cost goods when taken all the way through to the finish. The story with ethane is a lot less complex but a bigger deal for the export market. China imports all of its ethane from the U.S. and there is no other place to source waterborne ethane. Most of the new crackers in China that use ethane do not have feedstock flexibility, so they either run on U.S. ethane or they do not run.The U.S. exports nearly 500 Mb/d of ethane, 227 Mb/d of which go to China (nearly 50%), making U.S. exports to China as important to the U.S. as they are to China. As shown in Figure 3 below, China (blue bar sections) started importing ethane from the U.S. in 2019. That figure is expected to continue growing with the addition of new export terminal capacity from Enterprise and Energy Transfer (see Hot To Go!) and the expansion of the ethane tanker fleet. U.S. terminal capacity is expected to increase by nearly 700 Mb/d in 2025 alone. China’s decision on whether to continue importing will be made on the cost of producing ethylene from ethane. The price of U.S. ethane in today’s market is roughly 27 c/gal. Freight and terminal costs are more opaque in the ethane market than they are in the LPG market, but let’s assume a total terminaling and transport cost of $100-$110 per ton of ethane (13.5-14.8 c/gal). An 84% tariff increases the landed cost of ethane in China to about 76 c/gallon. Given today’s Asian naphtha price of around $540/ton, the cost to produce ethylene from ethane imported to China is far higher than the cost to produce ethylene from naphtha, as long as that naphtha does not come from the U.S. Figure 4 below compares the costs.Unless U.S. ethane prices go much lower, the economics for running ethane-based crackers in China will be unfavorable (see our Let’s Get Cracking series). If ethane prices go too low, ethane rejection could occur; however, Chinese buyers may be willing to pay a higher ethane price in order to keep their crackers running. The story of the tariffs and reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. is far from over, making it tough on U.S. LPG markets and China’s petrochemical markets. No matter how this plays out, it’s clear the consequences for ethane and propane markets will be severe. It’s shaping up to be a very difficult time for NGLs — and they’re likely to face some of the most turbulent impacts yet.

Trump: EU Must Buy $350 Billion in Energy Goods From the U.S. - The European Union should pledge to buy $350 billion worth of energy from the United States if it wants the U.S. tariffs on the EU eased, U.S. President Donald Trump has said. “We have a deficit with the European Union of $350 billion and it's going to disappear fast,” Trump said, as quoted by POLITICO. “One of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they're going to have to buy our energy from us ... they can buy it, we can knock off $350 billion in one week. They have to buy and commit to buy a like amount of energy,” President Trump said. Last week, President Trump announced a 20% across-the-board tariff on all imports from the EU, which will take effect on Wednesday, April 9. Separately, imports of steel, aluminum, and cars are subject to 25% tariffs. Estimates point that $416 billion (380 billion euros) worth of EU goods would be affected by the U.S. tariffs. The EU is scrambling to respond to the tariffs, with various reports pointing to EU leaders considering retaliatory tariffs. However, on Monday European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “Europe is ready to negotiate with the US.” “We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods. Because we're always ready for a good deal. But we’re also prepared to respond with countermeasures. And protect ourselves against indirect effects through trade diversion,” von der Leyen added. President Trump has dismissed the ‘zero-for-zero tariffs’ offer and told reporters in the White House who asked if the EU offer was sufficient to back down on tariffs on the EU, “No, it's not.” President Trump continues to insist that America running trade deficits with its major trade partners is “a big deal”. “A lot of people say, 'Oh, it doesn't mean anything having a surplus.' It means a lot, in my opinion. It's almost like a profit or loss statement,” he said.

FERC Approves 122-Mile East Tennessee Pipe Project for TVA Plant - - Marcellus Drilling News - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is a federally-owned electric utility corporation in the U.S. TVA’s service area covers all of Tennessee, portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and small areas of Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. TVA is the country’s sixth-largest power supplier and the largest public utility company. In May 2023, TVA announced that it would convert the Kingston Fossil Plant (coal-fired plant) in East Tennessee to a natural gas-fired plant capable of generating 1,500 megawatts of electricity (see TVA Proposes NatGas Power Plant, 122-Mile Pipeline for East Tenn.). The project includes contracting with Enbridge subsidiary East Tennessee Natural Gas Pipeline to build a new 122-mile pipeline, called the Ridgeline Expansion Project. Good news for the pipeline portion of the project: Last Wednesday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) fully approved the project.

Henry Hub to Average $4.30 in 2025, Move Higher in ‘26, Says EIA --The cold weather that swept across the United States in January and February pummeled Lower 48 storage inventories, enough so that natural gas prices in 2025 will be nearly double 2024 prices, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Thursday. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. Even though net gas storage injections began in March, earlier than usual, it still was not enough to overcome the large withdrawals early in the year. Henry Hub prices now are expected to average around $4.30/MMBtu in 2025, up about $2.10 from 2024. NGI’s Daily Historical Data show that through Thursday, the U.S. benchmark had averaged $4.141.

U.S. Natural Gas ‘Scathed’ by Tariffs, but Activity Still Seen as Bright Spot for Energy Sector -The U.S. natural gas and oil industry will begin to unveil first quarter results later this month, but uncertainty is clouding the near-term outlook, as operators are voicing concerns that President Trump’s policies may lead to higher costs and reduced activity. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Waha daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. During the first quarter conference calls, executives often are peppered with questions about capital expenditure (capex) plans, as well as exploration and production (E&P) activity. Likewise, oilfield services (OFS) management often touts the latest technology investments and equipment orders. That may not be the main point of discussion – or analyst questions – this go round. President Trump’s seesawing tariff policies and orders sent global financial markets spiraling down this month, and the energy sector did not escape the mayhem. The president on Wednesday paused some tariffs for 90 days, sending markets soaring. However, the unease about what the president could do – and when – continued.

Trump bid to spur LNG projects hits harsh economic realities - The Department of Energy has come out early and often in support of liquefied natural gas exports under President Donald Trump — but there’s a limit to what the new administration can do. The Trump DOE granted Commonwealth LNG’s request to export gas from Louisiana to countries without a free-trade agreement with the U.S. The application, which was approved in February, dates to 2019.The department framed the Commonwealth decision as a return to “regular order” after a pause on LNG export approvals under former President Joe Biden. Still, while Trump’s DOE has shown its willingness to move quickly, observers say permit approvals for the super-chilled gas are only one piece of the puzzle in a business that requires customer contracts to make a project happen.“I think the main obstacles we’re seeing really in the U.S. are more about commercial terms, competitiveness of U.S. volumes,” said Jason Feer, global head of business intelligence at ship brokerage and consulting firm Poten & Partners, during a recent webinar. “We’re seeing significantly higher project costs and liquefaction fees.”Since mid-January, DOE has doled out a handful of similar approvals: a conditional approval, like Commonwealth’s, to Venture Global’s CP2 project in Louisiana; a February order around the transfer of LNG; and an export permit time extension for the Golden Pass LNG terminal in Texas, which is owned by QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil.The non-FTA category makes up the majority of the world, meaning that approval is crucial to a project’s ultimate success. While the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave the facility a green light in 2022, Commonwealth sat waiting in DOE purgatory for years. FERC approves the siting and construction of onshore and near-shore US. LNG terminals.The Trump administration “is actively advocating for U.S. LNG around the world, reinforcing that America is once again open for business and remains the world’s most reliable supplier of energy,” DOE spokesperson Ben Dietderich said in a statement late last month. “The significance of re-establishing regulatory certainty for LNG exports, as the Trump administration has done since Day 1, cannot be understated.It remains to be seen how the ongoing upheaval in global trade may affect U.S. LNG projects.The so-called reciprocal tariffs Trump announced Wednesday exclude oil and gas, a move welcomed by the U.S. fossil fuel industry. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute trade group, said in a statement that Trump’s choice underscores “the complexity of integrated global energy markets and the importance of America’s role as a net energy exporter.”DOE — now overseen by Energy Secretary Chris Wright — also recently sought to bolster its deregulatory record by rescinding a 2023 policy statement from the department that required developers of LNG terminals to meet certain criteria before DOE would consider any request to extend the deadline to start exports.Original approvals by FERC and DOE are shown below. In a statement last month, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum argued the Biden administration carried out a “full-on attack against American energy” by stopping permitting and crippling “capital formation.” However, some projects with federal approvals in hand haven’t reached a final investment decision (FID), a key milestone when developers make a final commitment to move ahead. Multiple projects — slowed by factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and litigation — have also sought time extensions, either from DOE on the deadline to commence exports or from FERC on their deadlines to complete construction.At least one proposal, the Magnolia LNG project in Louisiana, allowed its DOE authorization to expire. Glenfarne Group, the company behind the proposal, is still pursuing the project and has submitted a new application.Others, like the Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana, have a DOE approval that will be expiring — and the department has yet to issue a new authorization. The company wrote in February asking DOE to act on its pending application.

Woodside Sells 40% Infrastructure Equity Stake in Louisiana LNG as FID Target Nears - Woodside Energy Group Ltd. plans to sell a 40% interest in its Louisiana LNG export project to Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners in a deal that could inject $5.7 billion toward the cost of construction. The Australian energy company disclosed it has entered into an agreement with the New York-based investment firm to sell off a non-operating position in its Louisiana LNG Infrastructure LLC unit. The deal is expected to close by the end of June. CEO Meg O’Neill said the deal was a major step in Woodside’s strategy of securing a series of partnerships that lowers overall capital risk and sets the estimated $15.85 billion first phase of the project on an accelerated course to a final investment decision (FID).

Energy Transfer Looking to Sell MidOcean 30% Stake in Lake Charles LNG - Energy Transfer LP and MidOcean Energy LLC are working on an equity offtake agreement for Lake Charles LNG that could bring the project closer to a final investment decision (FID) later this year. Under a tentative heads of agreement (HOA), Energy Transfer agreed to sell 30% of its LNG development unit and around 5 million tons/year (Mt/y) of production to MidOcean, an LNG investment firm managed by EIG Partners. Energy Transfer LNG President Tom Mason said the agreement is a “significant catalyst” to pushing the 16.45 Mt/y project to FID by the fourth quarter.

MidOcean Partners with Energy Transfer on Lake Charles LNG Exports --Just as the pandemic began to unfold in early 2020, Shell pulled out of a 50/50 joint venture partnership with Energy Transfer (ET) to build a new LNG export facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana (see Shell Pulls Out of Lake Charles LNG Project, Energy Transfer Stays). A boneheaded move on Shell’s part, if you ask us. Since that time, ET has continued to build support for the project. Last December, ET announced a new customer for its LNG when/if the plant gets built: Chevron (see Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG Still Alive – Deal w/Chevron). We have excellent news: ET announced it has a new partner, MidOcean Energy, that will cover 30% of the cost of building the plant. In return, MidOcean will receive 30% of the plant’s LNG

Chevron Ordered to Pay $744.6 Million for Destroying Louisiana’s Coastal Wetlands - Oil giant Chevron has been ordered by a Louisiana civil court jury to pay $744.6 million to a parish government to help restore coastal wetlands destroyed by the company over a period of decades. The lawsuit was the first of 42 filed against the company since 2013, reported The Guardian.The jury found that energy major Texaco — bought by Chevron in 2001 — had been violating state coastal resources regulations by not restoring wetlands that were impacted by drilling oil wells, dredging canals and the billions of gallons of toxic wastewater dumped into the environment, The Associated Press reported.“No company is big enough to ignore the law, no company is big enough to walk away scot-free,” lead attorney for the plaintiffs John Carmouche told the jury during closing arguments, as reported by The Associated Press.A 1980 Louisiana coastal management regulation requires that “Mineral exploration and production sites shall be cleared, revegetated, detoxified, and otherwise restored as near as practicable to their original condition upon termination of operations to the maximum extent practicable.”The verdict is likely to affect similar lawsuits against big oil in the state, The New York Times reported.Plaquemines Parish, which filed the lawsuit, sought damages of $2.6 billion, arguing Chevron was directly responsible for the pollution and loss of wetlands.Chevron said its activities were not the cause of the damage and that the state regulations did not apply, since its oil and gas activities began before 1980.Following a four-week trial, the jury awarded the parish $575 million for land loss, $161 for contamination of the area and $8.6 million for equipment abandoned by the company.Chevron said it plans to appeal.

Commonwealth LNG Lands Investor, Bringing FID Closer - Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala Energy said Thursday it would invest in Kimmeridge Energy Management Co. LLC’s Commonwealth LNG project and its upstream business in the Eagle Ford Shale. Mubadala agreed to acquire a 24.1% stake in Kimmeridge’s SoTex HoldCo LLC, which holds the assets. The acquisition price was not disclosed, but it marks Mubadala’s entry into the U.S. energy market. “As our first major investment in the U.S., this transaction offers a significant platform for future growth in one of the world’s most important energy hubs,” said Mubadala CEO Mansoor Mohamed Al Hamed.

Aramco Finalizes Deal for Rio Grande LNG Offtake, Expanding Global Natural Gas Portfolio - Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, has finalized a deal to buy 1.2 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG from the fourth train under development at NextDecade Corp.’s Rio Grande export project in South Texas. NextDecade is currently building the first 17.6 Mt/y phase of the project that consists of three trains. It is working to commercialize the fourth and fifth trains at the facility. Aramco, one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies, has been working to boost natural gas output and extend its reach beyond oil to low-emissions fuel. A major part of that effort has been a push to secure LNG supply contracts and build a global trading portfolio.

Shell Trims 1Q LNG Estimate, While ExxonMobil Eyes Higher Profits and APA Curtails Permian Natural Gas -Unplanned maintenance and harsh weather were named the culprits in a first quarter earnings preview by Shell plc in reducing its natural gas production guidance. ExxonMobil, meanwhile, said an uptick in prices should boost the bottom line. Shell's global energy portfolio displayed on a bar chart. The integrated energy majors previewed their first quarter results in separate filings. ExxonMobil is the largest U.S.-based oil and gas producer. Shell is the top European major and the No. 1 LNG trader. Shell’s integrated gas production, which includes global LNG liquefaction volumes, is forecast to average 910,000-950,000 boe/d in the first quarter.The London-based supermajor during 4Q2024 produced 905,000 boe/d within the integrated gas arm.

US natgas prices drop 5% to 7-week low on record output and tariff worries -- U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% to a seven-week low on Monday on record output and worries U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for energy. "Although gas is usually a weather-driven market, it is also an industrial commodity subject to the vagaries of the U.S. economic growth path and as a result, the tariff factor may require downward adjustments in expected U.S. gas demand this year," for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18.2 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $3.655 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since February 13. Prices declined despite forecasts for cooler weather and more gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Looking ahead, the premium of futures for June over May (NGK25-M25) fell to around 9 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since February 2023. Energy traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history. Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states edged up to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, slightly up from a monthly record 106.2 bcfd in March. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 22. With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 109.4 bcfd this week to 98.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. eased to 15.7 bcfd so far in April, down from a monthly record 15.8 bcfd in March. Gas was trading around a six-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and held near a three-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

US natgas prices jump 10% after US President Trump pauses most tariffs -- U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 10% on Wednesday, rising along with Wall Street and other energy prices after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would temporarily lower new tariffs on many countries, even as he raised them further on imports from China. Gas prices also gained support from a decline in output in recent days, forecasts for more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 35.1 cents, or 10.1%, to settle at $3.816 per million British thermal units. Earlier in the session, prices for gas and other energy futures dropped on worries U.S. tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for energy. Traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time ever for that month. Gas stockpiles remained about 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, down from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.7 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary six-week low of 103.4 bcfd on Wednesday. Looking forward, analysts noted the roughly 17% drop in U.S. crude futures over the past four days to a near four-year low on Tuesday could prompt energy firms to start cutting back on oil drilling. Any reduction in oil drilling in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota could cut gas output associated with that oil production. With seasonally mild weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 109.5 bcfd this week to 101.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG’s outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 16.0 bcfd so far in April, up from a monthly record high of 15.8 bcfd in March. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach 17.1 bcfd on Wednesday, up from a daily record of 16.8 bcfd on Tuesday, with gas flows to Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana on track to hit an all-time high of 2.4 bcfd. Gas was trading near a six-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and a seven-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

Trump BLM nominee withdraws -President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Land Management has withdrawn from consideration.Kathleen Sgamma, the head of an oil industry trade group, did not appear before the Senate on Thursday for her scheduled confirmation hearing.Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), the head of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said he was informed by the White House this morning that Sgamma had withdrawn her nomination without offering additional detailsThe sudden withdrawal comes after reporting earlier this week that Sgamma privately wrote that she had been “disgusted” by Trump “spreading misinformation” on Jan. 6, 2021. She withdrew her confirmation due to revelations about that post, said a person familiar with the move who was granted anonymity to discuss personnel matters.“It was an honor to be nominated by President Trump as director of the Bureau of Land Management, but unfortunately at this time I need to withdraw my nomination,” Sgamma said in a statement released by the White House. “I will continue to support President Trump and fight for his agenda to Unleash American Energy in the private sector.”White House spokesperson Liz Huston said they “accept her withdrawal and look forward to putting forth another nominee.”A spokesperson for the Western Energy Alliance, which Sgamma has led for nearly two decades, declined to comment.David Bernhardt, who served as Interior secretary in Trump’s first term, referred to the reporting about Sgamma’s Jan. 6 comments Thursday in a post on the social media platform X.Bernhardt wrote, “2 years ago, in my book, I explained that individuals who know their views don’t align with the president, and yet seek political appointments hoping such divergence will not be noticed cause needless harm and conflict, hindering the president’s agenda. Sad. Self-inflicted.”

Interior’s shift on Western oil leases reopens door to lawsuits - The Interior Department could face a fresh round of lawsuits after officials said Thursday they would no longer require the Bureau of Land Management to create an environmental impact statement for more than 3,200 oil and gas leases across seven states in the West. That environmental review, which the Biden administration started work on four days before Trump took office in January, was the culmination of nearly a decade’s worth of lawsuits on federal leases that date back to the Obama administration. The leases cover 3.5 million acres across Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming. Jeremy Nichols, a senior advocate with the Center for Biological Diversity, said the work done by BLM to guard against environmental effects of oil and gas production on federal lands has been weak. He said court decisions and settlements underscored that claim. He also called Interior’s decision to walk back the environmental impact statement likely illegal. Advertisement “Trump is vulnerable to lawsuits over this, but this administration does not seem to care about the law one bit,” Nichols said. “It’s doing everything it can to avoid complying with the law so it can give away federal lands and minerals to the fossil fuel industry.” The legal saga began when groups including the WildEarth Guardians sued over federal lease sales held during the Obama administration, arguing BLM’s environmental reviews of leases did not take the climate impacts of oil and gas production into account. Green groups continued filing suits voicing the same concerns during the Trump and Biden administrations, also arguing that the environmental reviews took only individual leases into account and ignored the cumulative environmental impact of leasing millions of acres for oil and gas development. The Biden administration opted to settle most of those cases, and four days before Trump took office, BLM announced it would create an environmental impact statement that would cover 3,200-plus oil and gas leases. It wrote in the Federal Register that the statement would “provide a comprehensive analysis of the potential environmental impacts from these leases, which have been remanded to BLM for further review, including the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions (to include the social cost of carbon) and other common impacts.” In response to questions from POLITICO’s E&E News, Interior spokesperson J. Elizabeth Peace said that Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is focused on advancing responsible energy development while removing unnecessary regulations. “This action is about cutting red tape — not cutting corners. We’re committed to upholding environmental protections while also making the permitting process work for — not against — the American people,” Peace said in an email. The agency’s decision to forgo the multistate environmental review undertaken by the Biden administration still leaves BLM on the hook to do more environmental analysis of the challenged leases, said Kyle Tisdel, a senior attorney at the Western Environmental Law Center, which represented environmental and public health groups opposing the lease sales. “We obviously have multiple court decisions and settlement agreements that BLM has entered into that say they’ve got to do something,” Tisdel said. It’s unclear at this point when litigation might be filed. Nichols said the Center for Biological Diversity was looking at what steps they could take to either file new lawsuits or intervene legally. “We’ll certainly fire back, but what that looks like, I don’t know,” Nichols said. “But climate change is real, and politics does not trump the reality here that more oil and gas leasing would be a disaster for the environment.”

Keystone oil pipeline ruptures, portion shut down – WHIO — A portion of the Keystone oil pipeline has ruptured, forcing it to be shut down in North Dakota.It is not known what caused the break and the amount of crude oil that flowed into an agricultural field in Fort Ransom, North Dakota, is not known. A pipeline employee said he heard a “mechanical bang” on Tuesday morning, and was able to shut down the line in about two minutes, according to officials with the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. The pipe that ruptured was a 30-inch pipe near a pumping station. The Keystone pipeline went online in 2011 and brings oil from Canada to the U.S.

Company says thousands of gallons of oil have been recovered from a pipeline spill in North Dakota (AP) — Workers have recovered thousands of gallons of crude oil from an underground pipeline spill on North Dakota farmland, the owner of the line said Thursday, but it remains unclear when oil will again start flowing to refineries. South Bow is still investigating the cause of the spill Tuesday along the Keystone Pipeline near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, about 60 miles (97 kilometers) southwest of Fargo, the company said. The spill released an estimated 3,500 barrels, or 147,000 gallons of oil, onto farmland. The company said 700 barrels, or 29,400 gallons, have been recovered so far. More than 200 workers are on-site as part of the cleanup and investigation. South Bow has not set a timeline for restarting the 2,689-mile (4,327 kilometers) pipeline, which stretches from Alberta, Canada, to refineries in Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas. The company said it “will only resume service with regulator approvals.” A map from the company shows the pipeline is shut down from Alberta, Canada, to points in Illinois and a liquid tank terminal in Oklahoma. The line is open between Oklahoma and points on Texas’ Gulf Coast, according to the map. Regulators order corrective action as Keystone Pipeline operators aim to restore service South Bow is working with the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and the state Department of Environmental Quality. Continuous monitoring of air quality hasn’t indicated any adverse health or public concerns, South Bow said. The site remains busy, said Myron Hammer, a nearby landowner who farms the land affected by the spill. Workers have been bringing in mats to the field so equipment can access the site, and lots of equipment is being assembled, he said. The area has traffic checkpoints, and workers have been hauling gravel to maintain the roads, Hammer said. There is a cluster of homes in the area, and residents include retirees and people who work in nearby towns, he said. But the spill site is not in a heavily populated area, Hammer said. The pipeline shutdown means that refineries that rely on crude oil will have 3% to 4% less of the total flows in a daily market of 17 million to 20 million barrels, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at the University of Houston. “It’s hard to see how you replace that into the stockpile that goes into these refineries,” he said. “Typically you have storage of crude in storage tanks and ships and everything. That might be a few days. But when you start to lose 3%, 4% of daily demand, it’s going to have impacts.” Gas prices in the Midwest have already seen an increase that is likely to grow, and diesel prices could be impacted significantly and quickly, he said.

The Keystone pipeline's history of spills (Reuters) - The approximately 600,000-bpd Keystone oil pipeline from Canada to the United States remained shut down Wednesday after an oil spill near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, on Tuesday released an estimated 3,500 barrels of oil.The latest spill comes two years after the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) identified what it called a pattern of "increasingly frequent incidents" on the Keystone system.

• * The Keystone pipeline spans more than 4,300 km and moves oil from Alberta to U.S. refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma, and Texas. It has been owned by Canadian company South Bow (SOBO.TO)<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = [default] http://www.w3.org/2000/svg NS = "http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" />, opens new tab since last year, when former owner TC Energy (TRP.TO), opens new tab spun off its crude pipelines business to focus on natural gas instead.
• * A 2021 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office found there had been 22 spills from the pipeline between 2010 and 2020. The report said while Keystone's accident history has been similar to other crude pipelines, the severity of spills has worsened in recent years.

The report also identified issues relating to the "original design, manufacturing of the pipe, or construction of the pipeline" as contributing to the largest incidents.Here is a look at some recent Keystone spills:

• * December 2022: The pipeline spilled about 14,000 barrels of oil into a creek in Washington County, Kansas, the biggest U.S. oil spill in nine years. The resulting third-party investigation concluded the pipeline ruptured due to a crack in a weld, which progressed due to pressure and temperature "fatigue."
• * October 2019: The pipeline spilled an estimated 4,515 barrels near Edinburg, North Dakota.
• * November 2017: The pipeline spilled an estimated 6,592 barrels near Amherst, South Dakota.
• * The Keystone pipeline is the flagship asset for South Bow, contributing approximately 95% of the company's earnings in 2024, according to ATB Capital.
• * The pipeline's physical integrity is one of the biggest risks to South Bow's investment thesis, RBC Capital said Tuesday.

Los Angeles Basin has little untapped oil left: USGS --Only minimal amounts of untapped oil and gas resources remain in the historic Los Angeles fossil fuel production basin, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).New estimates released by USGS on Wednesday indicate that just 61 million barrels of oil are technically recoverable in this region — equivalent to just 0.68 percent of the mammoth quantities already extracted.As a basis of comparison, since exploration began in the area in the 1880s, 9 billion barrels of oil have been produced or discovered in the basin. That total is about the same as the quantity of oil that the U.S. currently uses in 14 months, according to the agency. “Almost 150 years since exploration began, the Los Angeles Basin has little remaining undiscovered oil,” Sarah Ryker, acting director of the USGS, said in a statement. Regarding natural gas availability, the USGS assessments indicated that about 240 billion cubic feet of this resource remain available. Historic data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that about 504 billion cubic feet of onshore dry natural gas have been produced from the basin since the late 1970s. The Los Angeles Basin includes the coastal plain and waters of Los Angeles: extending north to the Santa Monica Mountains, east to the Angeles National Forest and the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains and east and south into much of Orange County. The USGS assessments first began about 50 years ago, after an oil embargo against the U.S., which led the government to require the agency to assess the country’s untapped resources with geologic data.These evaluations, Ryker explained, usually “focus on undiscovered resources – areas where science tells us there may be a resource that industry hasn’t discovered yet.”The USGS is continuing to identify new such resources both in the domestic arena and in global hotspots that could affect market conditions. Having such information available, the agency added, is critical to providing “actionable insight to U.S. leaders, other federal agencies, industry and the public.”

Oil Price Crash Is Already Hitting Alberta’s Production -The oil industry in Alberta is bracing for difficult times ahead, with WTI prices crashing to $60 per barrel and uncertainties about oil demand growing in a world of trade and tariff wars.Last week, the tariffs announced by the Trump Administration and the decision by OPEC+ producers to add in May more barrels to the market than expectedcrushed oil prices, with WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, crashing to $60 per barrel—the lowest level in four years.The benchmark U.S. oil price, against which Alberta’s producers plan and budget their activity, dropped by around $10 a barrel in just a few days, and fears are that prices could slide further into the mid $50s per barrel if trade war-fueled recessions crush oil demand.Even the $60 per barrel WTI price is already painful for Alberta and its oil producers and oilfield service providers.The province may see a larger-than-planned budget deficit. At the end of February, Alberta guided for a budget deficit in 2025 based on an assumption that WTI Crude oil prices would average $68 per barrel this year.In the 2025 budget, the province’s economists said that “Stormy skies are on the horizon for Alberta’s economy after ending last year on a solid footing.”The storm has already hit global markets and oil prices, dragging the WTI price $8 a barrel lower than the 2025-2026 forecast of the Alberta government.Canada was spared any new tariffs in last week’s announcement of tariffs on nearly all other countries and penguin-inhabited territories. But Alberta and its oil producers and drillers must now brace for the economic fallout from the trade wars.“The short-term pain and unpredictability right now is hard to stomach,” Kevin Neveu, president and CEO at Precision Drilling, told CTV News. Oil prices so low are already impacting production, the executive said.“We’ll end up having rig workers without jobs for weeks or months,” Neveu added.Alberta’s Finance Minister Nate Horner sought to reassure the energy industry and investors that the province’s budget oil price of $68 per barrel is for the average of 2025, not a particular moment in time.“We are monitoring the situation and expect that oil prices will eventually stabilize,” Horner said in a statement carried by CTV News.Alberta’s oil patch is currently in a wait-and-see mode, but it could cut some capital expenditure if these lower oil prices persist, according to Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial.“It’s still early, but it’s something you’re watching closely,” Parsons told The Canadian Press.“If these low prices persist, you might be shaving something off your capital expenditure guidance for the year.”If demand is hit in a U.S. recession and overall global economic slowdown, it wouldn’t matter that Canada’s energy is spared from U.S. tariffs, as oil prices would fall even further, analysts say.Large investment banks are raising the odds of a recession. Goldman Sachs has just raised these odds to 45% over the next 12 months, up from a 35% chance estimated previously. Goldman’s analysts and economists cited “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.” In the wake of last week’s tariff announcement, JP Morgan raised itsrecession odds to 60% in a research note titled “There Will Be Blood.”Commenting on the tariff announcement from April 2, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a weekly report on Friday,“What Trump delivered on this so-called "Liberation Day" was an economic war declaration likely to cause chaos across global supply chains, while in the short term raising the risk of an economic fallout, hurting demand for key commodities, with energy and industrial metals being the sectors most at risk.”

LNG Prices, Volumes Into Latin America Down Amid U.S. Tariff Hikes — LatAm Recap - May delivered ex-ship (DES) prices to LNG import terminals in Latin America fell over the past week as the market continues to come to terms with potential new barriers for international trade. Chart showing delivered ex-ship LNG prices specific to the Latin American LNG market. May DES prices to the Bahia Blanca terminal in Argentina were $11.93/MMBtu on Monday, up slightly on the day but down from $12.59 on April 2, when President Trump announced a broad array of tariffs on most nations around the world. DES prices at the Pecém terminal in Brazil were $11.77 on Monday, down from $12.41 in the same comparison, and prices on Mexico’s West Coast at Manzanillo dropped to $12.17 from $12.61. DES prices are NGI’s cost-plus formulations based on natural gas benchmark prices from the supplying country, such as the United States or Trinidad and Tobago. They also factor in shipping costs to Latin America. More than half of LNG imports into Latin America currently come from the United States, according to Kpler data. Some volumes to Latin America are also re-routed from Europe.

BP Sanctions Another Natural Gas Development Offshore Trinidad - BP plc, the largest natural gas producer in the Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago, has pulled the trigger on its fourth subsea project, Ginger, with first production slated for 2027. Subsidiary BPTT, which produces about one-half of the island nation’s natural gas, said it also has unearthed “multiple stacked gas reservoirs” in its Frangipani exploration well. Options now are being considered for that prospect. The BP subsidiary holds 100% working interest in Ginger and Frangipani.

European Natural Gas, LNG Prices Sink as Traders Weigh U.S. Tariff Fallout — The Offtake --A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• $12/MMBtu: The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark dipped below the $12/MMBtu mark and is expected to head lower as European trades react to U.S. tariffs. Analysts with Energi Danmark wrote that traders are likely betting a U.S. trade war with China would divert more LNG cargoes to Europe this year. LNG delivered to the European Union (EU) had a 20-cent discount to TTF on Tuesday, falling to $11.485, according to the EU’s price assessment.
• 16 Bcf/d: U.S. LNG feed gas demand ticked up to 16.8 Bcf/d on Wednesday, according to Wood Mackenzie data. It marked the fourth day in a row deliveries to terminals were above 16 Bcf/d. Nominations to Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities have continued to tick up, easing a gradual fall in prompt Henry Hub since last week.
• 10 months: A second midscale liquefaction train at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion could begin producing LNG and adding feed gas demand by February 2026. Cheniere notified the Texas environmental agency that commissioning activities for the 1.4 million ton/year capacity train could take about 10 months, resulting in some flaring activities. Commissioning for the first train was completed in five months.
• 8 cargoes: Argentina’s state-owned Energía Argentina SA (Enarsa) launched another tender for LNG cargoes to cover winter demand, adding competition for U.S. cargoes. Enarsa is seeking eight cargoes for delivery from June-July. The importer recently awarded a tender for six cargoes delivered April-June, according to Kpler data. Argentina imported 24 cargoes last year, amounting to 0.9 million tons. The majority of the country’s LNG volumes over the last two years came from the United States.

Trade War Weighs on Global Natural Gas Prices as Market Grapples With Uncertainty – LNG Recap - Global natural gas prices were mixed on Monday as the market continues to weigh the effects of an expanding trade war and how it could impact energy consumption across the world. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. President Trump’s plans announced last week to impose a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and levy far higher rates on some nations continued to roil financial markets on Monday. The president threatened even higher rates against China Monday for its own countermeasures. Other nations, like those in the European Union, are expected to respond this week as well. The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) fell 9% last week to dip below $12/MMBtu and hit a six-month low. The prompt Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) followed suit, finishing 1% lower at under $13, while JKM spot prices also hit a six-month low.

Saudi Arabia cuts May oil prices to Asia close to four-year low after OPEC+ supply boost (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, on Sunday slashed its prices for Asian buyers to close to their lowest level in four years, adding to speculation it is seeking to regain market share as part of OPEC+'s strategy to speed up oil output hikes. State oil company Saudi Aramco cut the May official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude by $2.30 to $1.20 a barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai prices, a pricing document from the producer showed. The drop marks the biggest decline in more than two years and is the second consecutive month Aramco has lowered its prices, Reuters' record of Saudi OSPs showed. January's price of plus 90 cents was the lowest since early 2021 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Eight OPEC+ countries in a surprise decision agreed on Thursday to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, triple the expected increase, representing around 0.4% of global supply. Aramco's price cut, coming just days later, recalled past market share battles when OPEC producers competed to sell extra barrels, pushing prices lower. "This could raise fears of the Kingdom reverting to the market share strategy of 2015 and 2016 when OPEC was unable to respond effectively to rising U.S. supply," said Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec. "However, it does not look that serious yet. This could also be in response to producers like Iraq and Kazakhstan who consistently produce above their quota," he said. Saudi Arabia has been an aggressive supporter of production control to balance the market in the last five years since its budget requires oil prices of around $90 per barrel. Thursday's OPEC+ decision represents a major departure from those policies. Aramco also lowered May prices for other grades it sells to Asia by $2.30 per barrel. News of the OPEC+ production boost, together with an escalating global trade war, sent oil prices plunging nearly 11% in the week ending April 4, hitting more than three-year lows. Prior to the latest OPEC+ decision, analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected Arab Light for Asia to be cut by $1.80 to $2.00, tracking the steep declines in benchmark prices in March. The spot premium of Dubai averaged $1.38 per barrel in March, down from $3.33 per barrel, the average in February. The drops were also due to more Russian supply returning to Asia, following disruptions in January and February caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian energy trade. The tables below show the full free-on-board (FOB) prices for May in U.S. dollars.

Oil prices plummet as US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears - Hindustan Times -Brent futures declined to $63.04, while WTI dropped to $59.49, marking their lowest since April 2021. Oil prices extended last week's losses on Monday, with WTI falling more than 4%, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude. As growing trade tensions between the US and China fuelled concerns of a recession that would lower demand for crude, oil prices continued their losses from last week on Monday, with WTI dropping more than 4%.(AFP/representative ) As growing trade tensions between the US and China fuelled concerns of a recession that would lower demand for crude, oil prices continued their losses from last week on Monday, with WTI dropping more than 4%.(AFP/representative ) Brent futures declined $2.54, or 3.9%, to $63.04 a barrel at 0745 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $2.5, or 4.03%, to $59.49. Both benchmarks dropped their lowest since April 2021. Oil plunged 7% on Friday as China ramped up tariffs on U.S. goods, escalating a trade war that has led investors to price in a higher probability of recession. Last week, Brent lost 10.9%, while WTI dropped 10.6%. "It's hard to see a floor for crude unless the panic in the markets subsides and it's hard to see that happening unless Trump says something to arrest snowballing fears over a global trade war and recession," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. Responding to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, China said on Friday it would impose additional levies of 34% on American goods, confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war is underway. Imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from Trump's sweeping new tariffs, but the policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes, weighing on oil prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that Trump's new tariffs are "larger than expected," and the economic fallout including higher inflation and slower growth likely will be as well. Adding to the downward momentum, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC ) decided to advance plans for output increases. The group now aims to return 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd. "This potential influx of supply, reversing cuts maintained over the past two years, represents a major shift in market dynamics and acts as a significant headwind for prices," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm. Over the weekend, top OPEC ministers stressed the need for full compliance with oil output targets and called for overproducers to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for pumping too much. On the geopolitical front, Iran on Sunday rejected U.S. demands that it hold direct nuclear talks or face strikes. Russia claimed to have captured Basivka in Ukraine's Sumy region and said its forces were attacking multiple nearby settlements.

The Oil Market Continued to React to Sweeping Tariffs – The oil market on Monday continued to tumble for the third consecutive session amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced last week could push economies around the world into recession and cut global demand for oil. In a volatile trading session, the market sold off more than $3 in overnight trading to a low of $58.95 and later swung into positive territory, rallying over $1.90 as it posted a high of $63.90 in mid-morning trading. The market quickly rallied higher and just as quickly gave up those sharp gains following reports of what the White House called “fake news” that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries, except China. The market was also pressured as Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for next month. The market later traded within a $2 trading range from $60-$62 during the remainder of the session. The May WTI contract settled down $1.29 at $60.70 and the June Brent contract settled down $1.37 at $64.21. The product markets ended lower, with the heating oil market settling down 1.2 cents at $2.0699 and the RB market settling down 3.44 cents at $2.0201. U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose an additional 50% tariff on China on Wednesday if Beijing did not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs on the United States. Goldman Sachs revised down its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and WTI crude in 2026, citing increased recession risks and the possibility of higher than expected OPEC+ supply. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 average price forecast by $4 for Brent to $58/barrel and WTI to $55/barrel. On Friday, it initially cut its 2026 average price forecast for Brent to $62/barrel and for WTI to $59/barrel and warned that the new estimates could be further reduced. Goldman Sachs now expects oil demand to grow by 300,000 bpd in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 600,000 bpd, and to increase by 400,000 bpd in 2026. The bank attributes the reduction in demand growth to the negative influence of a weaker GDP, which outweighs support from a weaker dollar and lower oil prices. Citi Research lowered its 0-3 month Brent price forecast to $60/barrel. Top OPEC+ ministers stressed the need for full compliance with oil output targets and plans to compensate for producing too much. Several ministers from OPEC+ held an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on Saturday. OPEC said “The committee noted the countries that did not achieve full conformity and compensation and reiterated the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation.” Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister said that he would work with companies that produce the country’s oil to make the additional cuts pledged to OPEC+. Countries are to submit new plans for their compensation cuts by April 15th. The next joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting is scheduled for May 28th, when the full OPEC+ group also plans to gather next to set policy. According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output fell in March ahead of a scheduled output increase, as Nigeria cut deliveries to domestic refineries and Iranian and Venezuelan supply fell on renewed U.S. attempts to cut the flows. OPEC produced 26.63 million bpd in March, down 110,000 bpd from February’s total.

Oil prices slide 2% to near 4-year low as US trade conflict fuels recession fears (Reuters) - Oil prices slid 2% to a near four-year low on Monday on worries U.S. President Donald Trump's latest trade tariffs could push economies around the world into recession and reduce global demand for energy. Brent futures fell $1.37, or 2.1%, to settle at $64.21 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.29, or 2.1%, to settle at $60.70. That pushed both crude benchmarks, which fell about 11% last week, to their lowest closes since April 2021. The session was marked by extreme volatility with intraday prices down more than $3 a barrel overnight and up over $1 Monday morning after a news report said Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. White House officials quickly denied the report, sending crude prices back into the red. Confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war has begun, China, the world's second-biggest economy behind the U.S., said on Friday it would impose additional levies of 34% on American goods in retaliation for Trump's latest tariffs. Trump responded that the U.S. would impose an additional 50% tariff on China if Beijing does not withdraw its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., and said "all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated." The European Commission, meanwhile, proposed counter-tariffs of 25% on a range of U.S. goods on Monday in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, a document seen by Reuters showed. Goldman Sachs forecast a 45% chance of recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months, and made downward revisions to its oil price projections. Citi and Morgan Stanley also cut their Brent outlooks. JPMorgan said it sees a 60% probability of recession in the U.S. and globally. In addition to growing recession worries, there are growing concerns that the Trump administration's policies will cause the price of goods to increase. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said some of the recent rise in goods and market-services inflation may be "anticipatory" of the effect of the Trump administration's policies, adding that it is a priority for the Fed to keep inflation in check. The Fed and other central banks use higher interest rates to combat inflation. Higher interest rates, however, boost consumer borrowing costs and could cause economic growth and oil demand to decrease. Saudi Arabia on Sunday announced sharp cuts to crude oil prices for Asian buyers, dropping the price in May to the lowest level in four months. "It's a demonstration of the belief that tariffs will hurt oil demand,". "It goes to show the Saudis, just like every man and his dog, expect the supply and demand balance to be affected and they are forced to cut their official selling prices." Adding to the downward momentum, the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to advance plans for output increases. The group now aims to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd. During the weekend, OPEC+ ministers emphasized the need for full compliance with oil output targets and called for over-producers to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for pumping too much.

Oil Prices Surge As Global Trade Concerns Intensify - bizwatchnigeria.ng -Crude oil prices experienced a rebound in the global commodity market on Tuesday, despite ongoing trade tensions initiated by the U.S. and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) planning to boost output in May amid uncertainty. Brent crude rose by approximately 0.3%, reaching $64.49 per barrel, up from $64.29 in the previous session. Similarly, the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained about 0.2%, settling at $60.95 per barrel, up from $60.80. Oil prices had recently plunged to their lowest levels in four years following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of stringent tariffs on several major economies. However, prices began to recover partially as investors sought to capitalize on the lower prices through profit-taking. Trump’s protectionist trade policies continue to be a significant source of global uncertainty, with retaliatory actions from other countries elevating risk perceptions in the market. Trump, when asked if the tariffs were a permanent measure or part of a negotiation strategy, responded, “There can be permanent tariffs, and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs.” Trump also reiterated that if China does not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs, the U.S. would impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic commented, “The U.S. tariffs now affect €380 billion ($416.8 billion) worth of EU exports—around 70% of the total—with duties ranging from 20% to over 25%. The current trade situation with the United States, our most significant partner, is in a tough spot.” Sefcovic added that the U.S. views these tariffs not as a tactical move but as a corrective measure and emphasized the EU’s willingness to negotiate when the U.S. is ready. In the oil market, Saudi Arabia announced it would lower crude oil prices for Asian markets in May, marking the lowest level in the past four months. This move follows an announcement from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, which includes both OPEC members and selected non-OPEC producers. The group revealed plans to accelerate its production increase, with output set to rise by 411,000 barrels per day in May, equating to a three-month increase.

Global slowdown could drive oil prices below $40 - Goldman Sachs - Oil prices could tumble to less than $40 a barrel, Goldman Sachs warned on Tuesday, on the back of a slowing global economy and output hikes. Having topped $82 a barrel in mid-January, benchmark Brent crude has since plunged and is now trading at $64.45. As well as mounting fears of a global economic slowdown, on the back of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime and subsequent market chaos, Opec and its allies last week agreed to boost supply by more than expected next month. The oil cartel was expected to continue gradually unwinding recent supply cuts but the size of May’s increase shocked markets. Opec+ cited the "positive market outlook" for the decision. But analysts also pointed to the organisation taking a stricter approach to compliance, after some members did not cut output earlier this year as agreed. In a note discussing the future for oil prices, Goldman Sachs said it expected Brent to remain under pressure, hitting $62 by the of this year and $55 by the end of 2026. WTI was forecast to reach $58 in December before falling further to reach $51 by the end 2026. The Wall Street bank based its forecasts on two assumptions: that the US avoids a recession, and Opec+ supply rises are only moderate. But it warned oil prices would fall significantly further should those assumptions not pan out. In particular, it said a US recession and greater supply rises could see Brent fall to $58/$50 by December 2025/26 respectively, while a slowdown in global GDP could drive Brent down to just under $40 a barrel in late 2026. Brent last traded at $40 in 2020, during the early months of the pandemic. However, Goldman Sachs acknowledged that its worst-case scenario - which would also include a full unwind of Opec cuts - was "more extreme and less likely". It also did not expect oil prices to fall well below $40 on a sustained basis. "First, US shall offers an increasingly firmer floor at lower prices," it argued. "Second, a potential 2025 US recession is unlikely to be very deep, in part given a lack of major financial imbalances in the private sector."

Fears of a Recession Offset a Stock Market Rebound - The oil market sold off once again and settled down 1.85% as fears of a recession due to the impact of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs offset a stock market rebound seen earlier in the day. The crude market traded higher in overnight trading, posting a high of $61.75 as the equities markets rebounded following three consecutive sessions of sharp losses. The markets were supported by news that China’s state-owned companies announced plans to buy back shares to increase investor confidence and mitigate the impact of an escalating global trade war. The oil market continued to trade over the $60.00 level for most of the session before it sold off further as the White House announced that the U.S. would impose a 104% tariff on China from 12:01 AM ET on Wednesday, after China did not lift its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday. The crude market extended its losses to $1.80 as it traded to $58.90. The May WTI contract settled down $1.12 at $59.58 and continued to sell off in the post settlement period to a low of $57.88. The June Brent contract settled down $1.39 at $62.82. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.29 cents at $2.0570 and the RB market settling down 2.87 cents at $1.9914. A White House official said the United States will impose a 104% tariff on China from 12:01 AM ET on Wednesday, after Beijing did not lift its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by a noon Tuesday deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said nearly 70 countries have reached out to the White House looking to begin negotiations on reducing the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Goldman Sachs sees Brent and WTI oil prices declining to $62/barrel and $58/barrel by December 2025 and to $55/barrel and $51/barrel by December 2026, respectively under two assumptions. First, the U.S. economy avoids a recession given a large reduction in tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, April 9th and second, OPEC+ supply increases moderately with two final increments of 130,000-140,000 bpd each in June and July. Goldman Sachs said assuming a typical U.S. recession and its OPEC baseline, it estimates that Brent crude would fall to $58/barrel by December 2025 and to $50/barrel by December 2026. In a global GDP slowdown scenario and maintain its OPEC baseline, the bank estimates that Brent would fall to $54/barrel by December 2025 and to $45/barrel by December 2026. It estimates a similar price path assuming its GDP baseline and full unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd OPEC+ cuts. In the more extreme and less likely scenario, with both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, Goldman Sachs estimates Brent oil prices would fall to just under $40/barrel in late 2026. The Keystone Pipeline was shut down following a spill in southeast North Dakota. The pipeline, which carries as much as 15% of Canada’s crude exports to the U.S., was quickly shut down after a pressure drop was detected. A yet-unknown volume of oil was discovered in a field near a pump station. There is no timeline for restarting the pipeline as workers will need to excavate to find the source of the leak and repair it.

Oil settles down $1 at four-year low as US-China trade war escalates (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday at a four-year low as investors priced in an increasing likelihood of a recession due to the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent futures settled down $1.39, or 2.16%, at $62.82 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.12, or 1.85%, at $59.58. The two benchmarks have slumped by 16% since U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of tariffs on all U.S. imports. The U.S. will impose a 104% tariff on China from 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on Wednesday, a White House official said, adding 50% more to tariffs after Beijing failed to lift its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday set by Trump. Beijing vowed not to bow to what it called U.S. blackmail after Trump threatened the additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if the country did not lift its 34% retaliatory tariff. China's Commerce Ministry said the country would fight to the end, ratcheting up fears about a contraction of the global economy. Both oil benchmarks continued to fall in post-settlement trade. U.S. crude futures dipped to $57.88, while U.S. stock indexes also broadly sank. "The scenario has presented a case for a global recession, where fears of energy demand declining have emerged," U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told U.S. senators on Tuesday that China has not indicated it wants to work toward trade reciprocity. Goldman Sachs forecast that Brent and WTI crude prices would be at $62 and $58 a barrel, respectively, by December 2025, and at $55 and $51, respectively, a year after that, under different scenarios. The U.S. administration has indicated a strong preference for reducing crude prices to $50 or lower, considering this goal a top priority among its objectives, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan. "This includes being willing to endure a period of industry disruption similar to the one experienced by the shale sector during the 2014 price war between OPEC and shale, if it ultimately results in lower cost of oil production," Kaneva said. On Monday, Trump also made a surprise announcement that the U.S. and Iran were set to begin direct talks on Tehran's nuclear program, but Iran's foreign minister said the discussions would be indirect. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that Iran can expect tighter sanctions if it does not come to an agreement with Trump on its nuclear program. "So absolutely, I would expect very tight sanctions on Iran, and hopefully drive them to abandon their nuclear program," Wright said in an interview on CNBC. Meanwhile, U.S. crude and distillate inventories fell while gasoline stocks rose last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks fell by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended April 4, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 210,000 barrels and distillate stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels, they said.

Oil hits four-year low on US-China trade war, Brent, WTI slump 16% in one week -- Oil prices plunged as much as seven per cent on Wednesday, April 9, hitting fresh four-year lows before recovering some ground after China announced additional tariffs on US goods in retaliation against US President Donald Trump's tariff policy. China said it will impose 84 per cent tariffs on some US goods starting Thursday, up from the previously announced 34 per cent.Crude oil has lost about one-fifth of its value since Trump announced higher tariffs on a range of US trading partners on April 2, the biggest five-day drop since March 2022. Brent crude index crashed below $60-barrel on Tuesday.Brent futures were last down $2.47, or 3.9 per cent, to $60.35 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $2.35, or 3.9 per cent, at $57.23. Both contracts lost about seven per cent before paring losses. The two crude oil benchmarks have slumped by nearly 16 per cent since Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of tariffs on all US imports. Back home, crude oil futures last traded 2.41 per cent higher at ₹5,322 per barrel on the multi-commodity exchange (MCX). During Wednesday's session, MCX crude futures hit an all-time record low of ₹4,798.The MCX benchmark pared losses and hit an intraday high of ₹5,324 per barrel, up from a previous close of ₹5,197. MCX crude futures currently trade 18.4 per cent lower than their record high of ₹6,525 per barrel.Trump's 104 per cent tariffs on China kicked in from 12:01 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, ratcheting up duties after Beijing failed to lift its initial retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Countermeasures over trade in Canada, a major US trading partner, took effect on Wednesday.On Wednesday, European Union countries agreed to impose 25 per cent tariffs on a range of US imports in a first round of countermeasures. Brent and WTI have fallen for five sessions since Trump announced tariffs on most imports, prompting concerns over economic growth and fuel demand.A decision last week by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to raise output in May by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts say will likely push the market into surplus, limiting oil's gains Goldman Sachs now forecasts that Brent and WTI could be at $62 and $58 a barrel respectively by December 2025 and $55 and $51 by December 2026. Morgan Stanley lowered price forecasts for Brent crude by $5 a barrel to $65 for the second quarter, $62.50 for the third quarter and $62.50 for the fourth. According to Gyan Ranjan Singh, Commodity Analyst, Choice Broking, “Recently, the price of crude oil on the MCX fell to a four-year low, breaking through a significant long-term support level. The technical situation is now negative with a descending triangle breakdown and the price trading below all significant weekly moving averages," said Ranjan Singh.Although the oversold zone raises the prospect of a brief recovery, a rise in volume during the breakdown and an RSI reading close to 21 indicate a strong bearish sentiment. According to Singh, the next crucial level is at 4,666, and the 4,870–4,800 area provides immediate support.According to Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities, Mehta Equities, the escalating trade war has fuelled global recession fears dragging equity markets and oil prices. With inflation risks and demand destruction looming large, oil remains under pressure, caught in the crossfire of a global trade war. “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile. Crude oil has support at $56.50-55.40 and resistance at $58.90-60.00. In INR, crude oil has support at ₹5,080-4,950 while resistance is at ₹5,360-5,450,” said Kalantri.

Global Oil Prices Plummet Amid Intensifying Trade War And Supply Concerns -- Global oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in over four years, driven by escalating trade tensions and fears of a global economic slowdown. Brent crude dropped by 3.79% to $60.44 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate declined by 4.13% to $57.12, marking their lowest points since February 2021. This decline follows the United States' implementation of 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, after Beijing maintained its 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The escalating tit-for-tat measures have dampened hopes for a swift resolution, raising concerns about a deepening global recession and diminishing energy demand. Compounding the situation, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, potentially leading to a supply surplus. Analysts warn that this move could further destabilize the market. Despite a slight easing from a 1.1 million-barrel decrease in U.S. crude inventories, overall sentiment remains bearish. Goldman Sachs forecasts further declines in oil prices through 2025 and 2026. Additionally, Russia's ESPO Blend oil has, for the first time, dropped below the $60 Western price cap, underlining the global pressure on oil markets.In Canada, oil and gas executives are adopting a cautious approach in response to the price slump. Doug Bartole, CEO of InPlay Oil, indicated that while immediate cutbacks in production or spending are not planned, sustained low prices, especially around $50 per barrel, could prompt strategic reassessments. InPlay recently completed a C$321 million acquisition of Alberta oil assets from Obsidian Energy, despite market uncertainties. Analysts from ATB Capital Markets have downgraded InPlay's share target based on current low WTI price levels. Economist Peter Tertzakian noted that while major oil sands companies can sustain lower prices, smaller firms may need to adjust capital expenditures if the price slump continues. Meanwhile, Birchcliff Energy CEO Chris Carlsen highlighted a potential benefit for natural gas producers, as reduced oil drilling may decrease associated gas output, potentially tightening supply.The sharp decline in oil prices poses significant challenges for Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030 megaprojects, including the futuristic Neom city. Oil remains the backbone of the kingdom's economy, despite efforts to diversify. With Brent crude recently falling to $62 a barrel and forecasts suggesting further declines due to global economic instability and increased OPEC+ output, the country faces a budget deficit and reduced oil-derived income. Saudi Aramco's anticipated dividends have dropped significantly, compounding financial pressures. Analysts expect the government may scale back or delay lower-priority projects, focus on key investments like global events, or increase borrowing and taxation. Notably, plans for“The Line” have reportedly been reduced to a 1.5-mile stretch associated with the 2034 FIFA World Cup. Despite reassurances from Saudi officials, concerns persist that the ambitious Neom development, championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, may need to be downsized unless oil revenues recover.The U.S. administration's tariff policies have been a significant factor in the market's volatility. While some argue that the tariffs, impacting about 1% of the $28 trillion U.S. economy, are intended to shift global trade dynamics in favor of the United States and counter countries like China, others believe that the market's reaction has been exaggerated. Despite the uproar, these tariffs would channel approximately $300 billion annually to the U.S. Treasury. Critics argue that the U.S., while the world's largest importer, has a relatively low import-to-GDP ratio compared to other countries. They contend that China has more to lose in a trade war due to its export-reliant economy and employment structure. American public sentiment appears cautiously supportive of fair trade measures, especially against perceived Chinese industrial subsidies. Some suggest that markets should adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than panicking, likening the administration's stance to the backlash faced by UK Prime Minister Liz Truss over her economic reform attempts, suggesting a resistance to market-driven pressure.Falling oil prices, encouraged by policies aimed at reducing regulatory burdens, may bring lower gasoline costs but also discourage new oil production due to unprofitable pricing levels and economic uncertainty. Efforts to stimulate future energy production, such as expanding drilling access and reviving coal via executive order, are counterbalanced by cautious industry investment amidst global trade tensions. Additionally, March 2025 was the second-warmest on record globally, with Arctic sea ice hitting a near half-century low, continuing a concerning trend of climate anomalies.

WTI Extends Losses After Crude Inventory Build; US Production Dropped - Oil prices fell to fresh four-year lows early on Wednesday on expectations economies will slump as China, Canada and the European Union push back against tariffs imposed by Trump, but are off the lows ahead of the official inventory and supply data. "Crude prices slumped to a four-year low with focus squarely on the escalating global trade war and its potential negative impact on growth and demand for energy," Saxo Bank noted. A mixed bag from API overnight (small crude draw) is being overwhelmed by the global geopolitical picture being adjusted by Trump. API

• Crude: -1.057M
• Cushing: +0.636M
• Gasoline: +0.207M
• Distillates: -1.844M

DOE

• Crude: +2.55mm (+2.6mm exp)
• Cushing: +681k
• Gasoline: -1.60mm
• Distillates: -3.55mm

US crude stocks rose for the second week in a row (along with inventories at the Cushing Hub). Products saw drawdowns... The Trump admin added 276k barrels to the SPR last week... US Crude production slipped notably last week WTI is trading lower after the print... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. The shape of the oil futures curve is rapidly shifting into contango - a fresh sign that traders are hastily dialing back their expectations for global demand this year. “The contango implies deteriorating demand perspectives,” said Tamas Varga an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd. “Evidence of worsening Chinese oil demand growth will put immense pressure on the front-end.” Finally, there is a potential silver for Main Street as crude prices have collapsed, so gasoline prices at the pump are set to follow...

The Market Bounced Off Four-Year Lows, Breaking a Losing Streak - The oil market on Wednesday posted an outside trading day, with a trading range of over $7.80. The market bounced off four-year lows earlier in the session and ended the session up 4.65%, breaking a four day losing streak, in light of the ever changing Trump administration tariff policies. The market sold off sharply in overnight trading, posting a low of $55.12 early in the morning as tariffs on dozens of nations went into effect on Wednesday morning and China announced additional tariffs on U.S. goods, imposing 84% tariffs starting Thursday, in retaliation against President Trump’s tariff policy which increased its duties on Chinese goods by a further 50% to 104%. The market later retraced some of its losses and traded mostly sideways within a range from $56-$58 before it rallied sharply higher. It retraced almost 50% of its move from a high of $72.28 to today’s low of $55.12 as it posted a high of $62.93 after President Trump announced a pause in the new tariffs for 90 days to non-retaliating countries as he raised the tariffs further on Chinese imports to 125%. The May WTI settled up $2.77 at $62.35 and the June Brent contract settled up $2.66 at $65.48. The product markets settled sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.66 cents at $2.1136 and the RB market settling up 4.7 cents at $2.0384. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would pause many of his new tariffs for 90 days, as he raised them further on imports from China. He said he would raise the tariff on Chinese imports to 125% from the 104% level that took effect at midnight, further escalating a high stakes confrontation between the world’s two largest economies. He said he authorized a 90-day pause to non-retaliating nations to allow time for U.S. officials to negotiate with countries that have sought to reduce them. The White House said a 10% blanket duty on almost all U.S. imports will remain in place.China’s Finance Ministry said the country will impose 84% tariffs on U.S. goods starting Thursday, up from the 34% previously announced, firing back in a global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump. China also imposed restrictions on 18 U.S. companies, mostly in defense-related industries, adding to the 60 or so American firms punished over Trump’s tariffs. The move comes after Trump made good on his threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China unless it withdrew its retaliatory levies on the United States, taking total new U.S. duties on Chinese goods this year to 104%.The EIA reported that total U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks fell last week to 111.08 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2023. Distillate fuel inventories fell by 3.54 million barrels in the week ending April 4^th, the largest decline since the end of January.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.7 million bpd of capacity in the week ending April 11^th, increasing available refining capacity by 59,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.47 million bpd in the week ending April 18th. The owner of the Keystone Pipeline, South Bow Corp, issued a force majeure notice to companies that ship oil on the pipeline after a leak in North Dakota on Tuesday released an estimated 3,500 barrels. According to the notice, Keystone pipeline, which transports more than 620,000 bpd, may not be able to meet obligations to send oil down the pipeline as of 5 p.m. Tuesday

Latest Trade War Shot Sends Oil Prices Lower Crude oil prices resumed their downward trajectory today after jumping higher on news that most trading partners would get a 90-day pause on tariffs. President Trump’s decision to double down on his tariff offensive against China, raising the total tariff burden on Chinese goods to 125%, effective immediately, has added to bearish sentiment. The move followed China’s announcement of 84% tariffs on U.S. goods in response to Trump’s initial tariffs. Beijing has said it would “fight to the end”. Amid these developments, Brent crude was trading at $64.70 per barrel at the time of writing, with West Texas Intermediate at $61.71 per barrel. According to analysts, the tariff spat between China and the United States has created excessive uncertainty on oil markets, although it might be more accurate to say that what it has created is quite a bit of certainty that the tariffs will disrupt demand and flows. “We may expect oil prices to resume its broader downward trend once the optimism around the recent tariff reprieve fades,” IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong told Reuters. “Demand-side headwinds persist, with China's growth outlook at risk from the ongoing tit-for-tat,” he added. While Washington keeps cranking up the pressure on China, the rest of the world got a 90-day break on tariffs. Media demonstrated surprise with President Trump’s decision to announce a three-month pause, citing governments’ willingness to negotiate new trade deals, even though it was exactly the same move he made with Canada and Mexico earlier in the year. This was not enough to reverse oil’s slide, however, because of China’s status as the biggest importer of crude in the world and the second-biggest consumer, after the United States. Chances are the decline will continue, although it might slow down a little while traders digest the implications of the trade war in the coming days. In the U.S. oil patch, concern is growing already as WTI dipped below $60 per barrel earlier in the week. This is below the breakeven level for many producers, and even larger ones with lower costs may have to curb spending in shareholder return plans, according to analysts.

The Markets Reassessed the Details of a Planned Reprieve - The oil market on Thursday erased Wednesday’s sharp gains as the markets reassessed the details of a planned reprieve in the sweeping U.S. tariffs and turned its focus on the escalating U.S.-China trade war. The market rallied to a high of $63.34 on the opening but quickly began to erase some of the gains seen during Wednesday’s trading session following the announcement of a 90-day pause, which excluded China, whose tariffs were increased to 145% from 104%, deepening a trade standoff with the world’s second-largest economy. The crude market erased more than 50% of its move from Wednesday’s low of $55.12 to Thursday’s high of $63.34 as it sold off to a low of $58.76 by mid-morning as the market remained concerned about a possible recession. The market later retraced some of its losses and remained in a sideways trading range. The May WTI contract settled down $2.28 at $60.07 and the June Brent contract settled down $2.15 at $63.33. The product markets also settled in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 6.72 cents at $2.0464 and the RB market settling down 7.71 cents at $1.9613. In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA reported that it sees 2025 world oil demand at 103.6 million bpd, down from a previous forecast of 104.1 million bpd and sees 2026 world oil demand increasing by 1.1 million bpd on the year to at 104.7 million bpd, down from a previous forecast of 105.3 million bpd. World oil output in 2025 is forecast at 104.1 million bpd, down 100,000 bpd from a previous forecast, while output in 2026 is forecast to increase by 1.2 million bpd to 105.3 million bpd, which is down from a previous forecast of 105.8 million bpd. U.S. oil output in 2025 is forecast total 13.51 million bpd, down 100,000 bpd from a previous forecast, while output in 2026 is estimated at 13.56 million bpd, down 200,000 bpd from a previous forecast. The EIA sees U.S. oil demand in 2025 at 20.4 million bpd, down 100,000 bpd from a previous forecast and demand in 2026 is seen at 20.5 million bpd, down 100,000 from a previous estimate. The EIA sees the 2025 Brent price at $67.87/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $74.22/barrel and the 2026 Brent price forecast is $61.48/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $68.47/barrel. The EIA forecast a 2025 WTI price of $63.88/barrel, down from a previous estimate of $70.68/barrel and forecast a 2026 WTI price of $57.48/barrel, down from a previous forecast of $64.97/barrel.China’s Foreign Ministry said China is not interested in a fight but will not fear if the United States continues its tariff threats. The foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Lin Jian, said “The U.S. cause doesn’t win the support of the people and will end in failure.” Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry said that China is open to dialogue with the U.S. but this must be on the basis of mutual respect and equality.European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, said the European Union will pause its first countermeasures against U.S. tariffs after President Donald Trump temporarily lowered the duties he had just imposed on dozens of countries.The Trump administration’s high pressure campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war. U.S. President Donald Trump said he prefers a diplomatic solution to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon but he has threatened that Iran is “going to be in great danger” if talks do not go well. President Trump’s special envoy for Middle East and Russia issues, Steve Witkoff, is expected to talk with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman on Saturday.

Oil settles down over 3% as investors reassess Trump's tariff flip (Reuters) - Oil prices settled more than $2 per barrel lower on Thursday, wiping out the last session's rally, as investors reassessed a planned pause in sweeping U.S. tariffs and focus shifted to a deepening trade war between Washington and Beijing. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.28, or 3.7%, to settle at $60.07 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell $2.15, or 3.3%, to $63.33 a barrel. Both contracts had gained more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump paused the heavy tariffs he had announced against dozens of U.S. trading partners a week ago, marking an abrupt U-turn less than 24 hours after the levies took effect. At the same time, however, Trump also raised tariffs against China. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports now total 145%, the White House told media on Thursday. China announced an additional import levy on U.S. goods, imposing an 84% tariff. Higher tariffs against China are likely to prompt lower U.S. crude imports by Beijing, backing up supply and raising U.S. storage levels, trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates told clients on Thursday. U.S. crude oil exports to China fell to 112,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, nearly half of last year's 190,000 bpd, data from vessel tracker Kpler showed. "If these trade disputes continue much longer, it's likely global economics will suffer significant economic damage," said Henry Hoffman, co-portfolio manager of the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 2.6 million barrels last week, government data showed on Wednesday, almost double the increase of 1.4 million barrels analysts projected in a Reuters poll. Macquarie analysts said on Thursday that they expect another build this week. The United States is also moving ahead with a 10% levy on all of its imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecasts and warned that tariffs could weigh heavily on oil prices, as it slashed its U.S. and global oil demand forecasts for this year and next. "The tariff-driven expectation of reduced demand amid the continued possibility of a U.S. recession will remain front and center of trader concerns in likely keeping a lid on near-term price gains,"

Oil Prices Drop as China Retaliates With 125% Tariff on U.S. Goods China hit back at the U.S. tariffs by raising on Friday the Chinese tariff on U.S. goods to 125% from 84% earlier, escalating the U.S.-China standoff. “The U.S. imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China seriously violates international and economic trade rules, basic economic laws and common sense and is completely unilateral bullying and coercion,” China’s Finance Ministry said in a statement. Oil prices, which had been climbing before China's announcement, dropped in response to the news. At the time of writing, both WTI and Brent were in the red at $59.91 and $63.16, respectively. U.S. President Donald Trump backed down earlier this week from a full-blown trade war with the entire world and announced a 90-day pause in the planned tariffs on all countries. However, China remained in the crosshairs of the Trump Administration, which continued to impose higher and higher tariffs on imports from China. The U.S. Administration had signaled that countries would be “rewarded” if they did not retaliate. On Friday, China retaliated and hiked its tariff to 125% for U.S. goods. “Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy,” according to a CNBC translation of a statement from the Customs Tariff Commission of the Chinese State Council. While equity markets took a breather with a short-lived relief rally after the 90-day tariff pause, oil prices continued to be hammered by the U.S.-China trade and tariff tit-for-tat as investors fear economic downturns would dent demand for oil. Early on Friday in Asian trade, crude oil prices were on track to book their second consecutive weekly loss as markets reel from President Trump’s tariff offensive. “While the pause offers some relief to markets, there’s still plenty of uncertainty on the trade front,” ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Thursday. “This uncertainty is still likely to drag on global growth, which is clearly a concern for oil demand. Still, conditions are not looking as bad as they were just a few days ago.”

Brent, WTI prices climb more $1 on possible Iran crude restriction (Reuters) - Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed more than $1 on Friday after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States could end Iran's oil exports as part of an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to terms over its nuclear program. Brent crude futures settled at $64.76 a barrel, up $1.43, or 2.26%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $61.50 a barrel, up $1.43 or 2.38%. Sign up here. "Strict enforcement of restrictions on Iranian crude exports would reduce global supply," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "I suspect China will continue to buy oil from Iran." Wright's comments provided upward momentum for oil prices, following volatile price swings this week as U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariff regime forced traders to reassess the geopolitical risks facing the crude market. "The U.S. being a geopolitical risk is new for the market," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. "We'll have this reordering of the chessboard like we did after Russia invaded Ukraine." China announced on Friday it will impose a 125% tariff on U.S. goods starting on Saturday, up from the previously announced 84%, after Trump raised tariffs against China to 145% on Thursday. Trump this week paused heavy tariffs against dozens of other trading partners, but a prolonged dispute between the world's two biggest economies is likely to reduce global trade volumes and disrupt trading routes, weighing on global economic growth and reducing demand for oil. "Although the implementation of some tariffs, excluding those on China, was delayed by 90 days, the market damage had already been inflicted, leaving prices struggling to regain stability," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecasts and warned that tariffs could weigh heavily on oil prices. It reduced its U.S. and global oil demand forecasts for this year and next year. China's 2025 economic growth is expected to fall relative to last year's pace, a Reuters poll showed, as U.S. tariffs raise pressure on the world's top oil importer. The impact of tariffs could be "catastrophic" for developing countries, the director of the United Nations' trade agency said. ANZ Bank analysts forecast oil consumption will decline by 1% if global economic growth falls below 3%, said senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.

Israel's Innocent Oopsie-Poopsie Medical Massacre Mistake -- Caitlin Johnstone -The Israeli military has changed its story about why its forces killed 15 medical workers and then buried them and their vehicles to hide the evidence. After their initial claim that the medical vehicles were approaching “suspiciously” without their emergency lights on was disproven by video evidence, they are now calling the whole thing a big mistake.Sure, who among us has not accidentally massacred 15 medical workers and buried them and their vehicles in a shallow grave from time to time? We’re only human, mistakes happen.Asked by the press about Israel’s latest war crime scandal, White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes blamed the whole thing on Hamas, saying, “Hamas uses ambulances and more broadly human shields for terrorism. President Trump understands the impossible situation this tactic creates for Israel and holds Hamas entirely responsible.”Netanyahu could live stream himself eating a Palestinian baby and telling the camera “I am eating this baby because I love genocide,” and the next day Trump’s podium people would be responding to questions from the press by shrieking “HAMAS!” with their fingers in their ears.To be helpful I have written some headlines the western press can use to frame Israel executing 15 medical workers in the most positive light possible:

• “Fifteen medical workers pause rescue duties following bullet-related incident”
• “Rescue workers, vehicles found in shallow grave after perishing for mysterious and unknowable reasons”
• “Israeli forces appear to be suspected of possibly accidentally firing on ambulance staff by mistake, perchance”
• “Medical workers killed by IDF, says Hamas-affiliated United Nations”
• “IDF assists medical workers in locating scene of latest massacre in Gaza”
• “Jews in New York City feeling unsafe, unsupported in wake of latest Israel controversy”
• “IDF to launch investigation into alleged IDF oopsie-poopsie in Gaza”
• “The universe is an ineffable mystery; objectivity is a myth and our finite primate brains were not evolved to comprehend any ultimate truths about absolute reality in its naked form”
• “Gunshots heard in the Middle East. A flashing siren. Innocence no more.”
• “IDF hunted and slaughtered 15 healthcare workers and buried them and their vehicles to try to cover it up, please don’t fire me, that’s what happened, I’m just trying to do my job”

Israel To Turn Gaza’s Rafah Into a ‘Buffer Zone,’ May Completely Wipe Out the City - The Israeli military is preparing to bring the southern Gaza city of Rafah into its so-called “buffer zone” it has established along Gaza’s border with Israel, Haaretz reported on Wednesday. In the buffer zone areas, the Israeli military has demolished virtually every building and destroyed agricultural land to make the area uninhabitable. The Haaretz report said that similar destruction could happen in Rafah,which has already been left in ruin due to Israeli attacks, but it hasn’t been decided yet.The Haaretz report reads: “According to defense sources, it has yet to be decided whether the entire area will simply be designated a buffer zone that is off-limits to civilians – as has been done in other parts of the border area – or whether the area will be fully cleared and all buildings demolished, effectively wiping out the city of Rafah.”The Israeli military has a policy in its buffer zone and other areas it has said are off limits to Palestinians of shooting anyone who approaches the area even if they’re unarmed. An IDF soldier who spoke to The Associated Press said if a person came within 500 meters of tanks deployed in the buffer zone, they would be shot, including women and children.The Israeli military has ramped up its seizure of land in Gaza since restarting its genocidal war on March 18 and now controls more than 50% of the Palestinian territory, which includes the buffer zone around the border and the Netzarim Corridor, which separates northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip.According to Haaretz, the Rafah Governorate by itself accounts for about one-fifth of Gaza’s territory. The IDF has been working to establish a corridor between Rafah and the city of Khan Younis, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dubbed the “Morag axis,” using the name of a Jewish settlement that was located in the area before the 2005 “disengagement.”The Haaretz report said that turning Rafah into a buffer zone was meant to put pressure on Hamas, but it also aligns with Netanyahu’s long-term goal of a full Israeli military occupation of Gaza and the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population.