oil prices hit 20 week high; first natural gas storage injection of 2024 puts inventories at highest mid-March level on record

oil prices hit twenty week high; first 2024 injection of natural gas into storage puts inventories far above any mid-March level on record; natural gas supplies now seem likely to exceed storage capacity later this year; DUC well backlog at 5.2 months even as completions increase...

US oil prices finished virtually unchanged after hitting a 20 week high ​m​id week as an early rally on bullish Chinese data following attacks on Russian refineries was reversed by the threat of a ceasefire in Gaza...after rising 3.9% to a four month high of $81.04 a barrel last week on bullish demand outlooks from the three major forecasting agencies, falling US oil inventories, and intensifying Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil refineries, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for April delivery continued higher early Monday, supported by ​weekend news of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, ​i​ncjuding new fires at two refineries, then rallied solidly after Chinese data showed their exports of refined fuels had plummeted by double-digits from a year ago during January and February, suggesting a rebound in domestic fuel demand from their transportation and heavy industry sectors, and settled $1.68 or more than 2% higher at a new 4 month high of $82.72 a barrel as macro-economic data from China came in a​bove expectations, Iraq reduced its oil exports to absorb ​i​ts oversupply from prior months, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries reduced the amount of distilled products output from Russia…oil prices rallied sharply higher for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as the market remained supported by the Ukrainian attacks against major Russian refineries, and settled 75 cents higher near a five month high at $83.47 a barrel as oil options had their least bearish tilt in months and key timespreads suggested traders were pricing in a tighter market….oil traded lower in overseas markets early Wednesday on a stronger US dollar and mixed inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, then retreated further in the New York session as traders awaited the Fed’s interest rate policy announcement and took profits ahead of the April contract’s expiration at the close​, and settled $1.79 lower at $81.68 a barrel as trading in that April oil contract expired, while the more actively traded oil contract for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery settled $1.46 lower at $81.27 barrel…with markets now quoting the contract price for May oil, prices on that contract moved higher in overnight trading as the U.S. dollar weakened after Fed officials reaffirmed they s​aw three interest rate cuts ​coming later this year, ​but then moved lower early Thursday on reports of a UN draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and as another round of profit-taking kicked in, and settled down 20 cents on the day at $81.27 a barrel pressured by weaker U.S. gasoline demand and the UN draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza…oil prices moved lower on Gazan ceasefire talks in Asian trading Friday, then fell 44 cents to $80.63 a barrel in the US session as the war in Europe and a shrinking U.S. rig count cushioned the drop, to leave oil prices less than 0.5% lower on the week, while the contract price for the US benchmark oil for May, which had closed the prior week at $80.58 a barrel, finished less than 0.1% higher..

meanwhile, natural gas prices inched higher for the first time in three weeks on a bit of chilly weather, despite the first addition to natural gas inventories of the year…after falling 8.3% to $1.655 per mmBTU last week on the smallest withdrawal of gas from storage of the winter and ​on ongoing weak demand for heating, the contract price for natural gas for April delivery opened seven cents above Friday’s ​last price on Monday​ morning on supportive weather forecasts for the coming week, but backed off after the opening rally to settle 4.8 cents higher at $1.703 per mmBTU on colder forecasts and lower output due to lower prices…natural gas prices opened 4 cents higher on Tuesday, as short-term forecasts calling for increased demand and production cuts continued to provide support, and prices settled 4.1 cents higher at $1.744 per mmBTU as bulls fed on near-term weather forecasts that would support a bump in demand and a pullback in the widening of natural gas storage surpluses....however, the April contract opened lower on Wednesday and slid 4.5 cents or more than 2% to settle at $1.699 per mmBTU on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than had been expected​, and ​on news of a demand-destroying, extended outage of two liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas….natural gas prices opened lower again on Thursday, knocked down overnight by softening forecasts and the expectation of a historically unseasonal storage injection​, and settled 1.6 cents lower at $1.683 per mmBTU after the EIA reported a small injection into inventories for the week ended March 15….natural gas prices extended ​those losses into the week’s last session as a storage glut and a trimming of demand forecasts kept the pressure on the contract, which settled 2.4 cents lower on the day at $1.659 per mmBTU, but was still up 0.2% on the week​...

The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending March 15th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage in the US increased for the first time this year, rising by 7 billion cubic feet to 2,332 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 411 billion cubic feet, or 21.4% above the 1,921 billion cubic feet that were in storage on March 15th of last year, 678 billion cubic feet, or 41.0% more than the five-year average of 1,654 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were typically in working storage as of the 15th of March over the most recent five years, and the highest late winter inventory level for any March 15th in 30 years of EIA records…the 7 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas working storage for the cited week was more than the 4 billion cubic foot injection into storage forecast by a Reuters survey of analysts, and it contrasts dramatically with the 68 billion cubic feet that were pulled from natural gas storage during the corresponding second week of March 2023, and also with the average 42 billion cubic feet withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same late winter week over the past 5 years…

with the first injection of natural gas into storage for this year, we’ll include a copy of the natural gas storage graph that the EIA includes with this ​weekly report…in the graph below, the blue line tracks the amount of natural gas that we had in storage each week over the past two years, the dark grey line shows the prior 5 year average of the amount of natural gas in storage for any given date over the two years shown, while the grey shaded area across the graph encompasses all the storage levels recorded over the prior five year for each date that is covered on the chart...

as you can see by following the blue line, our natural gas inventories were not only below average, but at the lower bound of the five year average thru most of 2022, despite an explosion at the Freeport Texas liquefaction facility ​that shut that plant down for the 2nd half of that year, but then moved to above average when February 2023 turned warmer​ and demand for heating waned, and subsequently stayed above average ​since as US production stayed high in the face of modest demand…a​t the ​right end of ​the graph, the blue line represents the unusual storage trajectory for this winter, which has seen​ well above normal temperatures and hence below normal demand except for ​t​hat couple weeks in mid-January…as a result​, the blue line​ representing gas in storage has moved well above the normal range, and this week even turned higher about three weeks before normal…the storage levels represented over the last three weeks, ie, since the last week of February, are highest on record for each date, and have tracked at roughly double the 30 year average for dates in March…our underground storage capacity is roughly 4,000 billion cubic feet, so our current storage ​level of over 2,300 billion cubic feet means we enter the summer with only 1,700 billion cubic feet of ​empty space left, when a normal summer usually results in a build of ​between 2,000 and 2,400​ billion cubic feet...hence, it now seems likely that we’ll run out of storage space for natural gas before the ​storage injection season ​winds down this Fall..

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 15th indicated that after a big jump in our oil exports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for 2nd time in eight weeks and for the 8th time in the past 22 weeks, even after a sizable increase in oil supplies that the EIA could not account for….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 787,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,278,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 1,730,000 barrels per day to a fifty week low over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil jumped by 1,734,000 barrels per day to average 4,881,000 barrels per day, which ​h​en used to offset imports meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 1,397,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending March 15th, 947,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supply from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 386,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day. Hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a rounded total of 14,883,000 barrels per day during the March 15th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,785,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 15th, an average of 127,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a rounded average of 172,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US... So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA for the week ending March 15th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production was 730,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week…To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a +730,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there was an error or omission of that size in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed....Moreover, since 305,000 barrels of oil demand per day could not be accounted for in last week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,035,000 barrel per day difference between this week's oil balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, and therefore ​meaningless... ​B​ut despite that, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing (as is obvious to anyone who watches oil prices), and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….(note there is also an aging twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had hoped to do about it)

This week's average 172,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 279,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 107,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifteenth SPR increase in twenty-two weeks, following nearly continuous withdrawals over the prior 39 months... Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,334,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 2.0% more than the 6,217,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 13,100,000 barrels per day because the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 12,700,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 9,000 barrels per day higher at 441,000 barrels per day, but still added the same 400,000 barrels per day to the EIA's rounded national total as it did last week...US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure matches that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and is also 35.1% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 87.8% of their capacity while processing those 15,785,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 15th, up from their 86.8% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still on the low side of the normal operating range for mid March, as refinery operations ​slowly recover from damage caused by the arctic cold that penetrated to the Gulf Coast in mid January... the 15,785,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were 2.7% more than the 15,376,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending March 17th of 2023 (after even worse refinery-freeze-off damage following Christmas 2022's winter storm Elliot), but 2.6% less than the 16,198,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending March 15th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at a closer to normal 88.9%..

Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat lower, decreasing by 263,000 barrels per day to 9,648,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 15th, after our refineries' gasoline output had increased by 285,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was still 1.5% more than the 9,503,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over week ending March 3rd of last year, but 2.8% less than the gasoline production of 9,925,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending March 15th, 2019....on the other hand, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 128,000 barrels per day to 4,690,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 217,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After five straight production increases, our distillates output was 4.2% more than the 4,503,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 17th of 2023, but ​still 4.7% less than the 4,923,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 15th, 2019…

With this week's decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the seventh consecutive week, following five prior increases, decreasing by 3,310,000 barrels to 230,773,000 barrels during the week ending March 15th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 5,662,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell by less this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 235,000 barrels per day to 8,809,000 barrels per day, ​while our exports of gasoline rose by 34,000 barrels per day to 1,033,000 barrels per day, and while our imports of gasoline fell by 138,000 barrels per day to 496,000 barrels per day.…After thirty-three gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past fifty-two weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 0.5% above than last March 17th's gasoline inventories of 229,598,000 barrels, but about 2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With this week's increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for 2nd time in eight weeks, following eight consecutive prior increases, increasing by 624,000 barrels to 118,522,000 barrels over the week ending March 15th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 888,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 411,000 barrels per day to 3,786,000 barrels per day, while our exports of distillates fell by 246,000 barrels per day to 985,000 barrels per day and while our imports of distillates fell by 1,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day...Even with 29 inventory decreases over the past fifty-two weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 1.8% above the 116,402,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 17th of 2023, but about 5% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year...

Finally, after this week’s big increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks and for the 30th time in the past year, decreasing by 1,952,000 barrels over the week, from 446,994,000 barrels on March 8th to 445,042,000 barrels on March 15th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 1,536,000 barrels over the prior week... With this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories remained about 3% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were still 31.9% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of March over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell in the wake of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies as of this March 15th were still 7.5% less than the 481,180,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 17th of 2023, but 7.7% more than the 413,399,000 barrels of oil that we still had in storage on March 18th of 2022, while still 11.5% less than the 502,711,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on March 19th of 2021, after refinery damage from winter storm Uri ​l​eft even more ​crude oil remaining after 2020’s pandemic precautions had left a lot of oil unused…

This Week's Rig Count

In lieu of a detailed report on the rig count, we are again just including a screenshot of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of March 22nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (March 15th) and this week’s (March 22nd) count, the third column shows last week’s March 15th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 24th of March, 2023...

DUC well report for February

Monday of ​t​he past week saw the release of the EIA's Drilling Productivity Report for March, which included the EIA's February data on drilled but uncompleted (DUC) oil and gas wells in the 7 most productive shale regions (click tab 3)....that data showed a decrease in uncompleted wells nationally for the 42nd time out of the past 45 months, ​even as both drilling of new wells and completions of drilled wells increased in February for the first time in 16 months. but remained well below the average pre-pandemic levels....for the 7 sedimentary regions covered by this report, the total count of DUC wells decreased by 3 wells, falling from a revised 4,486 DUC wells in January to 4,483 DUC wells in February, which was also 17.5% fewer DUCs than the 5,435 wells that had been drilled but remained uncompleted as of the end of February of a year ago...this month's DUC decrease occurred as 862 wells were drilled in the seven regions that this report covers (representing 87% of all U.S. onshore drilling operations) during February, up by 7 from the 855 wells that were drilled in January, while 865 wells were completed and brought into production by fracking them, up from the 846 well completions seen in January, but down from the 906 completions seen during February of last year....at the February completion rate, the 4,483 drilled but uncompleted wells remaining at the end of the month represents a 5.2 month backlog of wells that have been drilled but are not yet fracked, up from the 5.1 month DUC well backlog of a month ago, and up from the eight year low of 4.6 months of January 2023, on a completion rate that is still more than 20% below 2019's pre-pandemic average...

the drilled but uncompleted well count in the Appalachian region, which includes the Utica shale, was up by 11 from a month earlier, rising from 794 DUC wells at the end of January to 805 DUC wells at the end of January, as 83 new wells were drilled into the Marcellus and Utica shales during the month, while 72 of the already drilled wells in the region were fracked..

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Drillers ask Ohio for permission to frack natural gas under Keen Wildlife Area - cleveland.com – An unidentified driller asked the state to open all 85 acres of Keen Wildlife Area in Harrison County for oil and gas extraction. This marks the second land lease request in a week to the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission, which is also considering opening Egypt Valley Wildlife Area in Belmont County for development.

OH Federal Judge Allows “Drilled Too Deep” Case to Proceed - Marcellus Drilling News - Here’s a strange one we don’t quite understand. Yet. Two weeks ago we brought you the news that a jury in a federal court had decided a group of Utica shale drillers, including Rice Drilling (now EQT), Ascent Resources, XTO, and Gulfport Energy, were not guilty of “unjust enrichment” by drilling into the Point Pleasant shale layer that sits immediately below the Utica (see OH Drillers Win Case Against Landowners re Drilling Deeper). The very same federal court with the very same federal judge has just denied a request by some of the same drillers to throw out a similar case. In this new case (Honey Crest Acres v. Rice Drilling & Gulfport Energy), the judge is allowing the plaintiffs to proceed to make their case for unjust enrichment against Rice and Gulfport.

Enbridge Acquires The East Ohio Gas Company -Enbridge Inc. has closed on its acquisition of The East Ohio Gas Company (EOG) from Dominion Energy Inc. The gas utility will be doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio and will join Enbridge’s Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. The US$6.6 billion transaction was initially announced on September 5, 2023.EOG is a single-state utility serving over 1.2 million customers across more than 400 communities in Ohio. The gas utility has a portfolio of assets that includes more than 22,000 miles (35,400 km) of transmission, gathering, and distribution pipelines; underground storage; and interconnections to multiple interstate pipelines and large natural gas producers.“The addition of a strong Ohio-based gas utility company is a great strategic fit for Enbridge. It further diversifies our business and enhances the stable cash flow profile of our assets,” said Michele Harradence, Enbridge Executive Vice President and President, Gas Distribution and Storage. “With this acquisition, Enbridge has all four of its business units represented in Ohio, providing further value-add opportunities.”

Utica Shale Academy gets equipment from former Sammis Plant - — Utica Shale Academy is building its learning arsenal with an equipment donation from the former W.H. Sammis Plant in Stratton. Academy Superintendent Bill Watson said Bryan Donatelli, project manager of B&B Wrecking and Excavating of Cleveland, was handling the dismantling of the Energy Harbor-owned, coal-fired power plant which was idled in July and donated $132,400 worth of items from the site. Among them were a transmitter calibration unit, eight sets of lockers, jib cranes, six toolboxes, ceiling mounts for training monitors, a training station, electrical training modules, training tables, two conference tables, small circular tables, 10 8-foot tables, fire extinguishers in wall cabinets, an internal pump trainer, executive desks, training gear, chairs, heavy equipment hydraulic testing equipment, heavy equipment tools, a cabinet, welder generators for the heavy equipment course and various valves, gauges, parts, electrical leads and more for industrial maintenance training. Watson said he learned of the items’ availability through the parent of a student who worked with the demolition crew. He reached out to the company and B&B Wrecking offered items which were not included in the pending auction for liquidation. He submitted a letter requesting a partnership opportunity to support future generations, saying it would benefit students specializing in such trades as welding, heavy equipment, industrial maintenance and robotics.

Summit Midstream Partners to sell Utica assets to MPLX for $625 mln -(Reuters) - Pipeline operator Summit Midstream Partners said on Friday it would sell its Utica assets to a unit of midstream company MPLX LP for about $625 million in cash. Summit's shares jumped about 38% to $26.88, their highest since December 2021, as crude oil-rich basins will account for more than half of the company's portfolio after the sale. The Marcellus and Utica shale regions, spread across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, have seen producers cut gas rigs from last year as prices linger at decades low. "We believe there are several value optimizing strategies to pursue to further build scale, particularly in our Permian and Rockies segments," Summit CEO Heath Deneke said in a statement. The sale will also help reduce debt and increase liquidity, adding a $400 million credit facility and more than $325 million of unrestricted cash, the company said. The assets comprise Summit's natural gas gathering system in southeastern Ohio and its equity interests in Ohio Gathering and Ohio Condensate, operated in partnership with MPLX. MPLX is a limited partnership formed by Marathon Petroleum to focus on midstream and logistic infrastructure in key U.S. natgas basins. "Its (MPLX's) experience and likely close integration with its own MPLX assets means this is likely a plug-and-play transaction. The valuation at around eight times 2024 EBITDA looks reasonable," Morningstar analyst Stephen Ellis told Reuters.Summit said last year it had engaged external advisers to evaluate strategic alternatives after receiving interest from third parties for potential deals‎, including sale of specific assets.

Opposition grows against publicly funded universities teaching students 'How to Blow up a Pipeline' -- The oil and gas industry is moving to quash state universities’ “climate justice” course materials that denounce fossil fuels and promote violence to force the U.S. to adopt green energy policies. Ohio State University paused a proposed course change for a geography class that would have taught fall semester students “the political economy of climate change and the political philosophy of climate justice.”The course drew the attention of International Natural Gas Association of America President Amy Andryszak. She wrote to Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and flagged a book that would be assigned: Andreas Malm’s “How to Blow Up a Pipeline.”The book, according to its publisher, “makes an impassioned call for the climate movement to escalate its tactics in the face of ecological collapse.”Mr. Malm argues for forcing an end to fossil fuel extraction with actions and destruction of equipment and tools.“We need, in short, to start blowing up some oil pipelines,” the book tells readers. Ms. Andryszak questioned Ohio taxpayer funding of anti-fossil-fuel curricula in a state that is one of the nation’s top 10 natural gas producers.“The teaching of this book anywhere, but especially in a publicly funded state university, is very concerning, should be investigated by the State and, in our opinion, prohibited,” Ms. Andryszak wrote to the governor. “The activities advocated in the book can result in death, danger, and serious injury to those perpetrating the acts and innocent bystanders.” The course and the book are not included in the university’s autumn semester, according to a draft syllabus. Mr. DeWine’s spokesman Dan Tierney said the governor is reviewing the letter “to determine what claims … are factual.” A workflow sheet requesting the course changes shows “college approval” was obtained in October, but university officials do not know when or whether it will be offered. A spokesperson for the university told The Washington Times that the course is not on the fall schedule. Mr. Malm’s book has been assigned in courses at state institutions of higher learning, including Arizona State University, Illinois State University and the University of Washington. The 2022 movie adaptation has been screened at Yale University, Harvard University, Emerson College, Cornell University, Duke University, Michigan State University, DePauw University and Stanford University, among others. In a Jan. 16 New York Times interview, Mr. Malm justified pipeline violence and acknowledged it is inevitable that people will be killed if activists start blowing up dozens of pipelines. “I want sabotage to happen on a much larger scale than it does now,” he said. “I can’t guarantee that it won’t come with accidents.” Mr. Malm is an associate professor of human ecology at Lund University in Sweden. He told Bloomberg News in 2022 that the construction of pipelines, gas terminals and oil fields “are acts of violence that need to be stopped — they kill people.” The proposed course at Ohio State would be offered to sophomores, juniors and seniors. The draft calls for naming the class “climate justice.” It would replace environmental citizenship, which was last taught at the school in 2022.

Flaring and Venting at Industrial Plants Causes Roughly Two Premature Deaths Each Day, a New Study Finds - Inside Climate News —Meeka Outlaw spent most of her childhood growing up in a South Philadelphia rowhouse that was essentially sandwiched between an oil refinery and an electrical power plant. Although she didn’t know it then, Outlaw was witnessing what scientists call flaring and venting, processes used to burn off or release excess natural gas. A new study has found not only does flaring pollute the air of surrounding communities across the nation, but it also causes roughly two premature deaths each day. The study, which was published in the peer-reviewed journal Geohealth, also found that flaring and venting increases emergency room visits, worsens incidences of asthma in children, and costs the U.S. about $7.4 billion annually in so-called health damages—financial losses because of lost work time and other factors because of its adverse health effects.The study’s authors—from Boston University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Environmental Defense Fund—examined the adverse effects of the primary pollution hazards that are contained in the emissions produced in flaring and venting activities, including fine particulate matter, also known as PM 2.5, ozone and nitrogen oxides.The team also compared infrared satellite images to emissions data reported by states across the country and found that emissions were as much as 15 times higher for fine particulate matter and two times higher for sulfur dioxides than what had been reported to federal officials.Researchers said that three states—Texas, Pennsylvania, and Colorado—accounted for roughly 45 percent of the people who were adversely affected by flaring and venting activities. Roughly half a million Americans live within three miles of oil and gas, or O&G, plants that engage in venting and flaring.All told, researchers said that venting and flaring led to more than 73,000 asthma exacerbations in children and 710 premature deaths each year. The scientists wrote that because some data may not be reported at local levels, their findings may be “missing potential hotspots for diseases, most notably asthma.”Because of the focus on ozone, particulate matter and nitrogen dioxides, the researchers wrote “this model is unlikely to fully capture many of the complex, multifactorial impacts occurring in communities hosting O&G production. These health outcomes include but are not limited to adverse birth outcomes, asthma, and childhood leukemia.”Among the most alarming findings, researchers said, was the role of pollutants in exacerbating childhood asthma.“We know that PM 2.5 is bad for health, we know that ozone is bad for health, but to see the amount of asthma exacerbations that were attributed to nitrogen dioxide, I think that was surprising to us,” “Traditionally, most health impact assessments like this, at least in the U.S., they have generally exclusively focused on the PM 2.5 stats, like the fine particulate matter that can get in your lungs, and then ozone, which is again, the highly reactive gas—one of the big components of smog,” Buonocore said. “Normally, NO₂ is left off the table. And we didn’t leave it off the table—and it turns out that it’s kind of a big deal.”Of the 710 premature deaths each year that researchers say occur because of flaring and venting pollution, roughly 120 of them were directly attributable to nitrogen dioxide, the study showed.

SRBC Approves 8 Water Withdrawal Requests for Fracking in NEPA - Marcellus Drilling News - The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals for responsible and safe shale drilling. Last Thursday, the SRBC approved 23 new water withdrawal requests within the basin, eight of them for water used in drilling and fracking shale wells in Pennsylvania. The Marcellus/Utica shale drillers receiving a green light from SRBC included Beech Resources, Chesapeake Energy, Greylock Energy, Seneca Resources, and Southwestern Energy.

CNX Failed to Ask “Mother, May I?” for Reservoir Water Withdrawal -- CNX Resources was slapped with a “notice of violation” (NOV) by the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) for withdrawing over 1.8 million gallons of water in Washington County, PA (for use in shale gas fracking) without first seeking the proper “Mother, May I?” approvals. The withdrawals happened over a 22-day period in the summer of 2023. Yes, it takes the DEP a looooong time to respond to so-called violations. When CNX realized it didn’t have express permission to withdraw the water, the company immediately reported the situation and corrected it. Still, DEP wants a new plan to prevent it from happening again. The plan is due today.

CNX Buying 51M Gal. of Water from Beaver Run Reservoir for Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News - Water use restrictions have finally been lifted at the Beaver Run Reservoir in Westmoreland County, PA (near Pittsburgh). The Municipal Authority of Westmoreland County (MAWC), which manages Beaver Run Reservoir, has issued a contract to CNX Resources allowing the company to buy up to 51 million gallons of water to use in fracking at nearby gas wells. CNX will pay $12,855 for every 1.5 million gallons of water it buys. If the company ends up buying the full 51 million gallons, it will pay the MAWC $437,000.

Mouthy Delaware Riverkeeper Disrupts PA Gov. at Hydrogen Rally - Marcellus Drilling News - This one is too funny. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a leftist liberal Democrat and the chosen candidate of the environmental left, appeared at a Philadelphia union hall for a speech last week to tout a hydrogen hub that is supposedly coming to the area, called the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (MACH2). The MACH2 project is actually centered in Joe Biden’s home state of Delaware but will give a few economic table scraps to the Philly area, which excites and titillates PA politicians. Early in Shapiro’s “ain’t hydrogen just great” speech, Maya van Rossum, THE Delaware Riverkeeper (that’s what she calls herself), got up and began to shout down Shapiro. That’s right! The guy SHE voted for and helped elect! You see, Miss Maya (hereinafter to be called Mouthy Maya) doesn’t like hydrogen hubs, even “clean” hubs like the MACH2 project.

Federal Regs Push Well Plugging Costs in PA Over $100,000 per Well - Marcellus Drilling News - Plugging old abandoned (which means no longer producing) and orphaned (meaning the owner is not known) wells is not a simple thing to do. It’s estimated that Pennsylvania has perhaps 350,000 old abandoned and orphaned wells, many of them leftover from the early days of conventional oil drilling. The problem is finding them. Many are in out-of-the-way places. Plugging them cheaply is no simple matter. PA, OH, and WV have received millions from the federal government to help with their well plugging programs in an effort to control so-called fugitive methane. Over the past year, PA has plugged over 200 old wells (see PA Gov Shapiro Puffs His Chest to Announce Plugging 200 Old Wells). How much does it cost per well?

19 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 4 – 10 - Marcellus Drilling News - There were 19 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Mar. 4 – 10, up 2 from 17 permits issued the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 11 new permits. Ohio issued 5 new permits. And West Virginia issued 3 new permits. Range Resources and Ascent Resources tied for most new permits with 5 each. Range received 5 permits to drill in two PA counties: Lycoming and Washington. Ascent received 5 permits to drill in Belmont County, OH. Chesapeake Energy got 3 permits to drill in Bradford County, PA, and Seneca Resource also received 3 permits for Tioga County, PA. Southwestern Energy scored 2 permits for Ohio County, WV, and CNX Resources received a single permit for Marshall County, WV. ASCENT RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | OHIO COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES |SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY

New York State Senate Votes To Expand Fracking Ban To Include CO2 Injection (WNBF radio) The Associated Press reports a bill to expand New York State's fracking ban would prohibit gas drilling companies from using an extraction method that involves injecting liquid carbon dioxide into the ground was passed on March 20, 2024, by lawmakers.
The AP notes Southern Tier Solutions, a company from the State of Texas was looking to lease land in the Southern Tier last fall for drilling, attempting to use a loophole in the existing fracking ban law by drilling with carbon dioxide instead of water. Hydraulic fracturing, which uses a water-based solution to extract natural gas is banned in the State of New York. The Marcellus and Utica Shales rock formations extend for hundreds of miles. Fracking is permitted in areas of Pennsylvania, including Bradford, Susquehanna, and Wayne Counties. The New York State Assembly passed the bill on March 12th, and now it has landed on the desk of Governor Kathy Hochul to sign or reject it. New York State Senator Lea Webb, a sponsor of the bill, had this to say: We know that fracking proposes significant health and environmental problems that threaten our communities. Over a decade ago, our State historically led the nation and protected public health and the environment by banning high volume hydraulic fracking. And now, an out-of-state company wants to lease land from my constituents in Broome County to inject carbon dioxide into the shale. We must take action to combat the use of CO2 to prevent any erosion of the progress our state has made in preventing fracking. That is why I have introduced this piece of legislation with my colleagues Assembly member Kelles, Assemblywoman Lupardo and Senator Krueger to strengthen our fracking laws by banning the use of CO2 before it causes damage to our health and environment. -

Radicals Win in NY – Senate Passes Permanent Ban on CO2 Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News - Where do business dreams go to die? New York State, of course. Yesterday, the New York State Senate passed a bill to ban the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) in any process to extract natural gas or oil in the so-called Empire State. The NY Assembly (our state’s lower chamber) voted to approve the same bill a week ago (see NY Assembly Passes Bill to Ban Using CO2 to “Frack” Wells). It is a metaphysical certitude that our radicalized Governor, Kathy Hochul (who has somehow become even worse than Andrew Cuomo), will sign it into law, thereby destroying what could have been a billion-dollar private business that would have benefited landowners, area businesses, and local municipalities with heaps of extra tax revenues. Have a great idea for a business? Don’t come to New York, where we are closed for business.

DC Circuit case pits pipeline expansion against NJ's climate ambitions - An appeals court on Friday grappled with federal energy regulators’ approach to deciding whether a new gas project was in the public interest in light of New Jersey’s goal to wean itself off fossil fuels. During two hours of oral argument, judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit questioned whether the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission properly approved construction of a $1 billion gas expansion project to serve about 3 million customers in New Jersey and other Eastern states. The panel delved into FERC’s finding that the project was necessary to ensure reliability, as well as the agency’s decision not to consider the project’s climate impact “significant” when critics warned the expansion would account for a large percentage of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. Judge Brad Garcia pushed back on the notion that FERC needed to approve more capacity to buffer against the unpredictable demand from climate-driven weather events. “If we can say climate change is getting bad, that is going to justify any project,” he said. “Why can’t we ask for a little more information?” Advocacy groups led by the New Jersey Conservation Foundation claimed that the Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project would account for 12 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas inventory initially and would contribute about 50 percent of the state’s emissions by 2050 — the same year New Jersey plans to switch to 100 percent clean energy. Garcia, a Biden appointee, asked why those estimates weren’t significant. He asked FERC for evidence in the record to show where it found that the benefits of the project outweighed its “seemingly large” greenhouse gas emissions. “We can’t let the 2050 goal of the state override our assessment that there is an immediate need for reliability,” said FERC attorney Lona Perry. She also noted that there is currently no other project before FERC that could fulfill that demand and that the agency “could not attach significance” to New Jersey’s emissions estimates. Judge Michelle Childs, a Biden appointee, questioned how FERC was giving weight both to New Jersey’s own conclusions that the project was not needed and the state’s efforts to reduce its emissions. “How does the commission just override that?” she continued. “To me, it’s a very compelling statement by the state.” The FERC case is playing out as parallel questions are under review at the Department of Energy about what makes a gas project in the public interest. DOE has ordered a pause on new liquefied natural gas export authorizations as it considers how to account for climate risks before greenlighting exports to non-free-trade-agreement countries. Advocacy groups are now looking for a court-ordered climate reckoning at FERC. In the New Jersey case, challengers criticized FERC’s reliance on purchasing agreements to show that the pipeline expansion was necessary, without properly balancing the project’s climate risks.

Another Environut Stops MVP Work by Crawling Inside Pipe 36 Hrs -Marcellus Drilling News -- Last week, a 22-year-old activist too cowardly to give her name spent nearly 36 hours inside the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) in Virginia, halting construction on a section of the pipeline for two days. It is the latest in a string of organized criminal activity against the pipeline project. Two weeks ago, we told you about two old anti-Semitic hippies arrested for locking themselves to an old fossil fuel-powered car who blocked an MVP construction road for 11 hours (see MVP Protesters Reveal Themselves as Anti-Semites). Last week’s campout inside MVP was more of the same.

Appalachia, Haynesville Natural Gas Production Seen Falling into April, EIA Data Show - EIA in its latest monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) modeled combined natural gas production from seven key onshore regions of around 100.5 Bcf/d in April, a sequential decline of 167,000 MMcf/d from March. The Haynesville and Appalachia regions would see the largest production declines from March to April at 165 MMcf/d and 73 MMcf/d, respectively, the updated DPR data show. The DPR also models production trends in the Permian and Anadarko basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara shales.

Jones Cowboys Up Another $100M to Gain Two-Thirds Control of Haynesville Giant Comstock - Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, already majority shareholder in Haynesville Shale pure-play Comstock Resources Inc., has agreed to invest an additional $100.5 million into the company. Two Jones entities agreed to acquire 12.5 million shares of common stock in the private placement at $8.036/share. The price represents the average closing prices for the five trading days ending Wednesday, according to Comstock. The transaction would add 2% more equity to Jones’ holdings, giving him 67% of the outstanding common shares.

Elba Island LNG Expansion Gets Positive Enviro Assessment from FERC -Marcellus Drilling News - In April 2022, MDN reported that the top brass at Kinder Morgan, the owner and operator of the Elba Island LNG export facility (also known as Southern LNG), was considering an expansion of its modestly-sized facility (see Kinder Morgan Considers Expanding Marcellus-fed Elba Island LNG). KM subsequently submitted an application to federal regulators last year requesting an expansion of the facility. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) personnel issued a positive Environmental Assessment (EA) on March 8. But, there’s a wrinkle.

Williams delays Louisiana natgas pipeline amid competitor dispute - (Reuters) - U.S. energy firm Williams Companies (WMB.N), opens new tab has delayed the completion of its Louisiana Energy Gateway natural gas pipeline project following a dispute with a rival, Williams CEO Alan Armstrong said on Wednesday at a conference. The 1.8-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) pipeline was originally set to come online this year but was delayed to the second half of 2025 following a dispute with Energy Transfer (ET.N), opens new tab, the company previously said. The company is still pushing ahead with the project but has not laid out a new start date, Armstrong said. Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Williams was able to re-route the line around the disputed area, he said. The project, which is under construction in Louisiana and Texas, will feed gas from the Haynesville shale field to the Gulf Coast where demand for the fuel is growing to supply several liquefied natural gas export plants expected to enter service over the next few years. Officials at Energy Transfer were not immediately available for comment. Other energy firms, including Momentum Midstream and DT Midstream (DTM.N), opens new tab, have fought with Energy Transfer in court, accusing Energy Transfer of "blocking" their pipeline projects by not allowing them to cross Energy Transfer's pipelines in the area.

Tellurian Considers Company Sale, Other Driftwood LNG Options as Strategic Shift Continues - As Tellurian Inc. continues to reorganize its management team, it’s expanding the purview of its financial consultant to include selling equity in its LNG export project, or the entire company. Houston-based Tellurian, which is developing the proposed Driftwood liquefied natural gas project in Louisiana, has undergone a series of major personnel and strategy changes since December that Executive Chairman Martin Houston said will help the firm focus “on delivering value for our shareholders and customers.” Following the dismissal of co-founder and executive chairman Charif Souki late last year, the company hired Lazard Ltd. as a financial adviser to help it explore the sale of its upstream Haynesville assets and fund development of Driftwood.

TotalEnergies Looks to Tap Gulf Coast Foothold to Grow U.S. LNG Business - TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the firm is leaning on its already outsized role as a leader in U.S. LNG to expand its supply chain positions and grow its hub of natural gas projects centered in Texas. TotalEnergies is currently the largest trader of U.S. liquefied natural gas and is the second largest LNG seller in the world. It has targeted increasing its LNG sales to 50 million metric tons/year (mmty) by 2025. The economics of supply and the opportunities for advancing new, cleaner technology in the United States has made it a valuable region for the French firm’s growth platform, especially during its divestment process from Russia, Pouyanné said Monday in Houston during CERAWeek by S&P Global.

Granholm Says ‘Temporary’ While LNG Developers Hear ‘Pause’ - While political opposition and market uncertainty continue to mount around the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) pause of LNG export authorizations, Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm reassured energy leaders the action was a necessary, but temporary step to better policy making. During a keynote address Monday in Houston during CERAWeek by S&P Global, Granholm rolled out the Biden administration’s latest plans for encouraging investments in new energy technologies and decarbonization. While there were fewer details about the DOE’s review of its guidelines for approving new worldwide export permits, Granholm downplayed the potential political backlash from the move as the Biden administration looks toward the November presidential election.

Venture Global Acquiring Fleet of LNG Tankers to Transport Gulf Coast Volumes Overseas - Venture Global LNG Inc. said Sunday it would acquire a fleet of nine liquefied natural gas tankers, becoming the first U.S. producer of the super-chilled fuel to own vessels as it continues to integrate its operations. The vessels are currently under construction in South Korea. Six of them would have the capacity to carry 174,000 cubic meters of LNG, while the other three would have a 200,000 cubic meter capacity. The ships would burn LNG for propulsion. They would also have both the highest fuel efficiency and lowest greenhouse gas emissions of currently available carrier technology, the company said.

Glenfarne Inks Second Tentative Offtake Deal for Texas LNG - Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC has placed a quarter of its Texas LNG export project under tentative contracts after the latest agreement with a unit of Gunvor Group Ltd. Under the heads of agreement (HOA) disclosed Monday, Gunvor could take 0.5 million metric tons/year (mmty) of liquefied natural gas from Texas LNG for 20 years on a free-on-board basis. “With the previously announced commencement of the execution phase of the project financing process, this agreement aligns with our plan to take a final investment decision on Texas LNG this year,” Co-President Vlad Bluzer said.

Freeport LNG Confirms More Maintenance, Possible Outages On Two Trains Until May - Two of Freeport LNG’s trains at its Texas export facility could be offline intermittently through at least May, the company confirmed Wednesday, after the end of months-long maintenance on Train 3 last week. Feed gas demand and liquefied natural gas production capacity at Freeport has been limited since January after the company disclosed freezing cold during a winter storm caused electrical issues with one of the electric motors at the plant. While pipeline flow data showed that operations at Train 3 likely resumed last week, Wood Mackenzie and industry sources posited that additional trains could have been taken offline as Freeport addressed other possible issues.

Freeport LNG Boosting Spot Market Volumes, Looking for Investment-Worthy Train 4 Customers - A possible fourth train for Freeport LNG is expected to remain in the development phase for now, but the facility could export an additional 1.5 million metric tons/year (mmty) to the spot market by this summer, CEO Michael Smith said Wednesday. One train at the Texas facility is currently offline and another could have intermittent outages through May while crews repair damage from a winter storm and conduct inspections. Smith, in an interview with NGI in Houston during CERAWeek by S&P Global, said during that time engineers are expected to finish a debottlenecking project that will push the facility’s overall capacity to 16.5 mmty.

US natgas prices slide 2% on lower demand forecasts, extended Freeport LNG outage (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Wednesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and news of a demand-destroying, extended outage of two liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Freeport LNG said it anticipates two of the three liquefaction trains at its liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant will remain out of service for testing and repairs through May. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.5 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $1.699 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since March 11. Energy traders said futures were supported earlier in the week by a continued drop in U.S. output after gas prices collapsed to a 3-1/2-year low in February. Prices fell as low as $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. Analysts estimated current gas stockpiles were around 41% above normal levels. Those low prices were expected to boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024, but will cut production for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand for the fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest outlook. Output was already down by around 5% over the past month as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy , delay well completions and cut back on other drilling activities. EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake will soon become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states had fallen to an average of 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through March 24 before turning to near normal from March 25-April 4. LSEG forecast gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would remain around 114.0 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in March, down from 13.7 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts do not expect U.S. LNG feedgas to return to record levels until all three liquefaction trains at Freeport return to full service. Freeport said Train 1 will be taken down immediately, Train 2 is offline and Train 3 is operating. Train 3 shut in January during a brutal freeze that damaged one of its motors. LSEG said the amount of gas flowing to Freeport was on track to rise to 0.9 bcfd on Wednesday from 0.3 bcfd on Tuesday. Each liquefaction train at Freeport can turn about 0.7 bcfd of gas into LNG.

Next Big Thing for U.S. Natural Gas Demand? Power-Hungry Data Centers, Say Williams Execs - The U.S. natural gas demand story has been geared to LNG growth, but there’s another story that could become even bigger: fueling a proliferation of computer data centers. The power-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) computer warehouses are to be fueled mostly by abundant and reliable domestic natural gas. It’s the next big thing, according to Williams CEO Alan Armstrong. Speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global, Armstrong said Wednesday “electric load from data centers is going to grow threefold by 2030.”

Enbridge eyes 120,000 bpd expansion to Gray Oak, Texas oil pipeline by 2025 (Reuters) - Energy pipeline company Enbridge plans to expand capacity on its Gray Oak oil pipeline by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year and could add another 40,000 bpd in 2025, an executive told Reuters on Tuesday. The company had originally planned to add 200,000 bpd to the Texas pipeline, but in February revised downward that target to between 100,000 bpd and 200,000 bpd. The Gray Oak pipeline runs between the Permian basin in West Texas and Corpus Christi, Texas, on the Gulf Coast. Enbridge's Ingleside Energy Center there is the largest crude oil storage and export terminal by volume in the U.S. Enbridge said it is not concerned about potential competition at the Corpus Christi hub, where Enterprise Products Partners is trying to secure licensing for its Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) export project. “It's certainly a competitor for Corpus. But given the advantages of our terminal at Corpus, we are confident Ingleside can compete well against SPOT,” said Colin Gruending, an executive vice president at Calgary-based Enbridge.

Michigan attorney general argues Line 5 lawsuit should be sent back to state court - The Michigan Attorney General’s Office argued Thursday in a federal appellate court that its lawsuit to shutdown the Line 5 oil pipeline should be returned to a Michigan court.Line 5, a 645-mile oil and natural gas pipeline owned by Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, moves oil across Canada through Michigan and Wisconsin, with a segment of the pipeline running under the Straits of Mackinac.Before oral arguments in Nessel v. Enbridge, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel spoke with climate activists, as well as members of Michigan’s tribal communities outside the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit in Cincinnati, Ohio.“Our environment, our natural resources are counting down towards their expiration date. We do not have time to continue along the way we’ve been going,” Nessel said. “Line 5 runs along the bottom lens of the Straits of Mackinac at depths of up to 270 feet below the surface. And that is to say that this over 70-year-old pipeline is situated smack dab in the middle of one of the most fragile, unique, precious ecosystems in not just the state of Michigan, but I would argue all of the United States of America.” During her first attorney general race in 2018, Nessel, a Democrat, ran on the promise that she would seek to decommission Line 5, filing legal action against Enbridge in the Ingham County Circuit Court in June 2019. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered Enbridge to cease operations of the portion of the pipeline that runs through Michigan waters in November 2020, but Enbridge has not complied amid court action. Although attempts by Michigan officials to shut down Line 5 have failed over the last five years, Nessel is trying to breathe new life into her original lawsuit filed in Ingham County. She’s seeking to bring the case back to Michigan after a federal judge in 2022 sided with Enbridge and said the suit will be heard in federal court. Enbridge is shopping around for the most favorable court for its cause, Nessel said before oral arguments. “This is a Michigan case brought in state court under state law on behalf of the good people of the state of Michigan,” Nessel said. “Unfortunately, Enbridge has managed to delay justice for over three years by playing procedural games.”

Colorado environmental groups file 3 ballot measures to limit oil and gas industry Leading Colorado environmental groups filed language Thursday for three sweeping ballot measures aimed at limiting the oil and gas industry in the state, openly declaring them a blocking effort to as many as a half-dozen equally sweeping proposals supported by oil interests. The potential ballot battle, alongside a number of anti-oil and gas bills still under debate in the legislature this year, is a renewal of the election year games of chicken from 2018, 2020 and 2022. In some past elections, environmental groups and oil and gas representatives agreed to take competing measures off the table so long as it was a bilateral disarmament.Gov. Jared Polis, who has said in the past he wants to give existing oil and gas pollution limits time to work, encouraged the sides to stand down. He even declared an end to the state’s so-called oil and gas wars in 2019 when he signed a regulatory overhaul into law.Oil and gas interests are spending millions backing ballot measures and running TV ads attacking bills being debated this legislative session, said Jessica Goad with Conservation Colorado, one leader in the environmental coalition that filed the measures Thursday. The coalition also includes the Sierra Club, Colorado GreenLatinos and others.“Our intent with this is to open a conversation with industry,” Goad said. “There’s lots of moves in the legislative session around oil and gas bills and policy. So, yes, we’re thinking about this all as a whole and feeling like we need to use all the tools available to us, including the legislature and bills, but also the ballot process right now, to be able to have a conversation with the industry and their allies.” The deadline for filing state ballot proposals to appear on the November ballot is fast approaching. They would be heard at the state’s Title Boardin April, leaving time to continue any talks over bills at the legislative session that ends in early May. The environmental groups’ filing may appear last-minute, but Goad said they are up against an industry making late moves of its own. “From our perspective, the oil and gas industry and their allies have filed seven measures that could be really devastating to our climate and clean energy progress,” Goad said. “And they were doing that as late as last week. We had no choice but to use every tool available to us, including filing these measures here today.”The filings are a “backstop” to protecting clean air and water, she said. The three ballot proposals the environmental coalition said it filed Thursday include:

• “Oil and Gas Accountability,” making the oil and gas industry strictly liable for any damages to health or property from spills, fires, earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing, contamination of surface or groundwater or other hazards. (Strict liability is a legal standard meaning the plaintiff doesn’t have to show a direct causal link, only that the damage occurred.)
• “Clean Air and Water Protection,” giving Colorado residents more power to enforce oil and gas regulations in state courts to protect air and water, while also requiring oil and gas companies at fault to pay the citizen’s attorney fees.
• “Right to a healthy environment,” putting into state law a personal right to clean air and water, and to bring lawsuits if the state “undermines their right.”

Getting a measure on the November ballot, even if the coalition’s proposed language is approved by the Title Board, won’t be easy. It takes collecting roughly 125,000 voter signatures per each measure over a few months to qualify, a feat that typically costs millions of dollars. Oil and gas interests, meanwhile, have filed multiple titles that go after state government support for cleaner energy technology. Three have been approved for gathering signatures. One is focused on blocking incentives or government mandates for clean energy for installing heat pumps or hot water heaters running on renewable electricity. Two would prohibit the state or local governments from dictating what kind of energy hookups are offered to the individual consumer, in part responding to some local efforts to ban new natural gas pipelines into subdivisions, in favor of renewable electricity or solar power. The American Petroleum Institute is spending nearly $2 million to air a TV ad claiming that some bills being considered this year will shut down oil and gas production entirely in the state. The ads will air through at least the end of March. On ballot measures, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have each donated nearly $1.5 million to the issue committee Protect Colorado, which works to protect the oil and gas industry’s interests.

No Uplift for Bakken Natural Gas Prices as Supply Glut Continues - Natural gas prices in North Dakota continue to languish at nearly 30-year lows amid nationwide oversupply, according to the state’s top oil and gas regulator. Production cuts announced by large operators in the gassy Marcellus and Haynesville shales have so far failed to meaningfully boost prices. “We’re seeing rigs lay down in the natural gas plays, the Marcellus and the Haynesville, like there’s no tomorrow,” Department of Mineral Resources’ (DMR) Lynn Helms, Oil and Gas Division director, said during a press briefing.

US Coast Guard Cutter Accidentally Discharges Diesel - The U.S. Coast Guard said one of its buoy tenders accidentally discharged approximately 500 gallons of diesel fuel 30 miles offshore of Fort Bragg, Calif., Friday morning. The vessel, USCGC Alder (WLB-216), was enroute to Humboldt Bay when the incident occurred, the Coast Guard said. Members of Coast Guard Sector San Francisco Incident Management Division notified interagency stakeholders and are investigating the oil spill and cause. They are also evaluating potential impacts to sensitive sites. There are currently no anticipated shoreline impacts at this time, officials said. USCGC Alder is a Juniper-class, 225-foot (69 m) seagoing buoy tender built by Marinette Marine Corporation and commissioned in 2004. It is currently homeported in San Francisco.

U.S. oil output from top shale regions to rise in April - EIA (Reuters) - U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions will rise in April to its highest in four months, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report on Monday. Production from the top basins will touch 9.77 million barrels per day, its highest since December, EIA said.

AI Infiltrates Oil Industry To Speed Up Drilling, Cut Costs - Many tech analysts have accused the oil industry of being too slow to adopt new technology. Yet the industry is itself the source of much technological progress in its narrow, specialized field. Over the past ten years, however, oil and gas have started to open up for digital technology and automation. In fact, the energy industry has very much embraced all things digital and AI. And now, these technologies are helping it produce more oil and gas for less money. Bloomberg recently reported how the oil industry was using artificial intelligence to improve drilling in the shale patch and boost the recovery rates of fracked wells. This is quite an important step for the industry, which until quite recently appeared to prefer to use the power of computers for things like seismic surveys and pipeline monitoring. Back in 2018, a KPMG survey found that many oil and gas companies were already adopting artificial intelligence or planning to adopt it soon. Of course, at the time, “artificial intelligence” usually referred to tech such as predictive analytics and machine learning, and yet it was proving helpful enough to merit the attention of oil executives. “Technology is disrupting the status quo in the oil and gas industry. AI and robotic solutions can help us create models that will predict behavior or outcomes more accurately, like improving rig safety, dispatching crews faster, and identifying systems failures even before they arise,” said one of the authors of the survey, KPMG’s Global Sector Head for Energy and Natural Resources in the United States, said at the time in comments on the findings. All this is still true and digital technology is being used ever more widely in the energy industry. The U.S. shale patch is a natural early adopter because production costs there tend to be generally higher than they are in conventional oil and gas drilling. But thanks to tech, these costs are coming down as drilling times accelerate—and accuracy is improving too. Bloomberg noted in its recent report that technology had helped shale drillers shorten the average period for drilling a new well by a whole day and the period for fracking that well by three days. A day saved is a day’s costs saved. Then there is the drilling of longer horizontal wells that last year contributed significantly to higher-than-expected well productivity in the shale patch. And it would not have been possible without digital technology.

World’s top fossil-fuel bosses deride efforts to move away from oil and gas The bosses of the world’s leading oil and gas companies have poured scorn on efforts to move away from fossil fuels, complaining that a “visibly failing” transition to clean energy was being pushed forward at an “unrealistic pace”.The oil executives, gathered at the industry’s annual Cera Week conference inHouston, Texas, have taken turns this week to denounce calls for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, despite widespread acknowledgment within the industry, as well as scientists and governments, of the need to radically reduce planet-heating emissions to avoid the worst effects of the climate crisis.“We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas, and instead invest in them adequately,” said Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, to applause in the room.Nasser dismissed projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that global demand for oil and gas will peak by 2030, claiming that rising energy costs mean that people will require “the importance of oil and gas security” rather than shift to renewables. “In fact, in the real world, the current transition strategy is visibly failing on most fronts,” Nasser added, criticizing solar, wind and electric vehicles for what he said was a minimal impact in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. “And, despite our starring role in global prosperity, our industry is painted as transition’s arch-enemy,” Nasser complained. This skepticism was echoed by other leading executives at the conference, which gathers industry leaders and politicians in Texas’s oily heartland. Meg O’Neill, chief executive of Woodside Energy, said that the transition to clean energy cannot “happen at an unrealistic pace”, predicting that cleaner fuels could take up to 40 years to develop. “It has become emotional,” O’Neill said of the climate debate. “And when things are emotional, it becomes more difficult to have a pragmatic conversation.” “If we rush or if things go the wrong way, we’ll have a crisis that we will never forget,” warned Jean Paul Prates, chief executive of Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil corporation, about the shift to clean energy. The comments were swiftly denounced by climate campaigners. Those in the industry “work night and day to torpedo a transition to renewable energy and then have the audacity to critique the slowness of the transition itself,” said Jeff Ordower, North America director of 350.org. “Cera Week should highlight a global vision toward a clean and equitable future, and instead, we get talking points from the 1970s.” “We should be skeptical of any solutions touted by the industry because it’s clear they don’t have a real interest in halting the climate crisis,” Ordower added. Panama Canal Adding Transit Slots – - The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is adding three more daily transit slots this month to allow more vessels to pass through the waterway. PCA said it added two additional slots for auction on Monday (March 18). Another slot is scheduled to be added next Monday (March 25), boosting the number of daily transits to 27 from 24 overall. The authority said water levels at Gatun Lake, which helps supply the canal, allowed it to add the slots. They will remain in effect unless conditions change. PCA reduced the number of transit slots last year in response to a historic drought. The canal is the preferred route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, allowing LNG tankers to make the journey to Asia faster than others such as the Cape of Good Hope or Suez Canal. More gas tankers...

Shell dilutes energy transition strategy, scraps 2035 decarbonization goal - Shell updated its energy transition strategy Thursday, scaling back a carbon emissions reduction target for 2030 and scrapping a goal to further reduce its carbon footprint by 2035. The oil major said it aims to reduce the net carbon intensity of its energy products by 15-20% by 2030, compared to a 2016 baseline. The company previously said it would decarbonize its products by 20% by 2030, 45% by 2035 — a goal it has now discarded — and reach net-zero status by 2050. Shell said its 2050 target “remains at the heart of [its] strategy.” “When we provided the 2035 target, it was assumed the world would develop an accounting system for tracking carbon emissions. That has not happened which means we cannot track the 2035 target today,” a Shell spokesperson told ESG Dive over email. The spokesperson attributed Shell’s decision to retire its initial goal to the “uncertainty in the pace of change across many countries, and the broader energy transition.” Shell said it’s prioritizing “value over volume” when it comes to generating and selling power and is concentrating on select markets and segments and, as a result, has shifted its focus to commercial customers over retail customers. The company expects a lower total growth of power sales leading up to 2030 because of the revised strategy, which led it to modify its net carbon intensity target for the end of the decade, according to the spokesperson.This is the first time the company has updated its energy transition strategy since unveiling it in 2021, a year after the company pledged to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century. The oil major has said it aims to reduce emissions from its operations and from the fuels and other energy products it sells to its customers, per its website. Shell also said it would capture and store any remaining emissions using technology or balance them with carbon offsets.Though Shell’s strategy aims to decarbonize its operations, it focuses on the net carbon intensity instead of absolute emissions of its products. The former gives companies room to increase their overall carbon footprint while using offsets or renewable energy measures to balance out their impact on the environment. Despite watering down some of its carbon reduction goals, Shell introduced a new target to reduce emissions generated by customers who use its oil products — which factor into the company’s scope 3 emissions — to help accelerate decarbonization in the transport sector. The company aims to reduce its scope 3 emissions by 15-20% by the end of the decade, compared to a 2021 baseline. The oil major said it would invest $10 billion-$15 billion in low-carbon energy solutions between 2023 and 2025. The company also said it has reached 60% of its target to halve its scope 1 and scope 2 emissions by 2030, compared to a 2016 baseline.

Climate activists across Europe take action against North Sea oil and gas CLIMATE activists in Scotland and across Europe took action against new North Sea oil and gas extraction on Saturday in a co-ordinated day of civil disobedience. Campaigners under the banner of North Sea Fossil Free said that the governments of Britain, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands are committing the whole world to dangerous levels of warming by permitting new fossil extraction infrastructure. It follows a report by Oil Change International last week that none of the major North Sea fossil fuel-producing countries have plans to curtail drilling in alignment with the 1.5°C target under the Paris Agreement. Across Scotland on Saturday, activists dropped banners in locations they said had strategic importance to the proposed development of new North Sea extractions, including a coast on the Moray Firth which would be devastated if there was an oil spill. Extinction Rebellion (XR) Forres organised performances from the black-clad “oil slicks” performance troupe during the action. Shetland Stop Rosebank dropped banners at Lerwick Harbour, the main port supporting the first phase of the proposed Rosebank oil and gas field. And in Aberdeen, the offices of Equinor and Ithaca, which own 80 per cent and 20 per cent of Rosebank respectively, were targeted with banners which read: “North Sea Fossil Free,” “Stop Rosebank” and “Sea Knows No Borders.” XR said in a statement: “These countries are interconnected through the exploitation of their shared waters, while the effects of these harmful initiatives are affecting the climate far beyond this northern corner of the world. “Northern Europe’s oil and gas addiction is not only creating an ecological crisis in our own backyards, we are also fuelling and profiting from the global climate crisis with no regard for people in the most affected areas.”

'North Sea Fossil Free': Activists in 6 Countries Protest 'Unhinged' Oil and Gas Development --Climate activists in six North Sea countries came together on Saturday to carry out acts of civil disobedience in protest of their governments' continued fossil fuel development.Demonstrators in the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands blockaded roads, ports, and refineries; dropped banners; and held solidarity concerts as part of the North Sea Fossil Free campaign to demand that their governments align their plans for the shared body of water with the Paris agreement goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels."For too long, the U.K., Norway, and other North Sea countries have avoided scrutiny for their oil drilling plans as the emissions are not included in their national inventories," a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion U.K. told Common Dreams. "Going full steam ahead with new North Sea oil and gas is a sure fire route to the worst climate scenarios."The day of action, which was organized by Extinction Rebellion (XR), came days after a new report from Oil Change International revealedthat none of five North Sea countries—Norway, the U.K., the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark—have plans consistent either with limiting warming to 1.5°C or with the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels reached at last year's United Nations COP28 climate conference. If the five countries were counted as one, they would be the seventh biggest producer of oil and gas in the world.In particular, these governments continue to issue permits to explore for and develop oil and gas fields, despite the fact that the International Energy Agency has said that no new fossil fuel development is compatible with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. In one high-profile example, the U.K. approved the undeveloped Rosebank oil field in September 2023. Taken together, these permits could lead to more than 10 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions.The worst offenders were Norway and the U.K., which could be among the top 20 developers of oil and gas fields through mid-century if they do not change course.

PetroVietnam Gas starts supplying LNG via trucks - P PetroVietnam Gas, a unit of state-owned PetroVietnam, has started supplying liquefied natural gas via trucks from its Thi Vai LNG import terminal to industrial customers. On March 15, 2024, PV Gas officially started supplying LNG for industrial customers with the first fleets of LNG trailers, originating from the Thi Vai LNG truck loading station (Vung Tau) to PV GAS CNG’s LNG satellite station in Thuan Dao (Long An), the firm said in a statement. The first LNG fleets from the Thi Vai terminal arrived at PV Gas CNG’s LNG satellite station with a capacity of 100 cbm. Following this, PV Gas CNG will supply LNG to its existing customers currently using CNG such as Oechsler Motion, Nam Hung Steel, Petfood Evolution, Asia Steel, etc, it said. PV Gas said this marks a “significant milestone”, heralding the introduction of its optimal energy solutions package, integrating the LPG/CNG/LNG business model, offering customers with “diverse, flexible, and stable product choices at competitive prices.” In May 2023, Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade licensed PV Gas to import and export LNG. The company’s unit CNG Vietnam (PV Gas CNG) commissioned in August 2023 the Thuan Dao LNG satellite station. According to PV Gas, the unit holds over 70 percent market share and possesses a complete transportation and distribution infrastructure nationwide.

India’s LNG imports jump in February - India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports jumped in February compared to the same month in 2023, according to the preliminary data from the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The country imported about 2.44 billion cubic meters, or about 1.8 million tonnes of LNG, in February via long-term contracts and spot purchases, a rise of 33.3 percent compared to the same month in 2023, PPAC said. During April 2023-February 2024, India took 27.93 bcm of LNG, or some 21 million tonnes, up by 17.6 percent, PPAC said. India paid $1.1 billion for February LNG imports, the same amount as in the year before, and $12 billion in April-February, down from $15.9 billion in the year before, it said. As per India’s natural gas production, it reached 2.47 bcm in February, up by 11.1 percent compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. During April-February, gas production rose by 5.7 percent to about 33.2 bcm, PPAC said. At the moment, India imports LNG via seven facilities with a combined capacity of about 47.7 million tonnes. These include Petronet LNG’s Dahej and Kochi terminals, Shell’s Hazira terminal, and the Dabhol LNG, Ennore LNG, Mundra LNG, and Dhamra LNG terminal. During April 2023-January 2024, the 17.5 mtpa Dahej terminal operated at 95.3 percent capacity, while the 5.2 mtpa Hazira terminal operated at 32.6 percent capacity, PPAC said. The 5 mtpa Dhamra LNG terminal operated at 24.6 percent capacity, the 5 mtpa Dabhol LNG terminal operated at 39.4 percent capacity, and the 5 mtpa Kochi LNG terminal operated at 20.6 percent capacity, it said.

China’s LNG imports rise 19.3 percent in January-February - China, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas importer, increased its LNG imports by 19.3 percent in January-February compared to the same period last year, according to customs data.Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that the country received 13.20 million tonnes during the first two months of this year.In January, China’s LNG import terminals took 7.25 million tonnes of LNG, up by 22.9 percent year-on-year, while in February LNG imports rose 15.2 percent to 5.95 million tonnes, the data shows. Natural gas imports, including pipeline gas, during the first two months of this year reached about 22.10 million tonnes, rising 23.6 percent compared to 17.87 million tonnes in the same period in 2023.Several reports previously said that Chinese buyers were buying spot LNG cargoes due to low JKM prices and also to rebuild inventory after the Lunar New Year holiday.JKM for April settled at $8.521/MMBtu on Friday.China’s LNG imports rose 12.6 percent in 2023, and the country overtook Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer.The country received about 71.32 million tonnes in the January-December period.This is a rise compared to about 63.44 million tonnes of LNG in 2022 when imports dropped due to very high spot LNG prices and Covid lockdowns.China’s 2023 LNG imports dropped compared to record 78.93 million tonnes in 2021.

Saudi Aramco To Expand Natural Gas Output Capacity by 60% -After scrapping oil capacity expansion plans earlier this year, Saudi state oil giant Aramco is now poised to boost natural gas output by 60% by 2030, Reuters reports, citing an Aramco executive on the sidelines of the Houston CERAWeek energy conference. In the third quarter of last year, Saudi Arabia made two significant natural gas discoveries in two fields in the Empty Quarter, along with the discovery of five reservoirs in previously discovered fields. At the Al-Hiran field, gas flowed at a rate of 30 million cubic feet daily. At the Al-Mahakik field, the gas flow was 0.85 million cubic feet daily. Demand for gas is seen increasing significantly amid a global energy transition, which has prompted Saudi Arabia to move more quickly to open up the development of unconventional natural gas fields. LNG demand is expected to grow by 50% by 2030. The Saudis’ growing interest in natural gas has also led to the Kingdom’s first acquisition in the LNG space earlier this year. Earlier this month, Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying that Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) are in talks to invest in American LNG in order to compete with Qatar, which lost its ranking to the U.S. in January as the world’s largest LNG exporter. Aramco is reportedly in talks concerning the Sempra Infrastructure Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Texas. Phase 1 is already producing, while Phase 2 has been proposed for expansion. The Saudi quest to expand its natural gas production capacity, along with its increasing interest in global LNG options, comes as the Biden Administration continues with a pause in approvals for new LNG projects imposed in January and adding uncertainty to new project financing for American LNG players.

Iraq to curb crude oil exports to compensate for exceeding OPEC+ quota | World News - Iraq will reduce its crude exports to 3.3 million barrels a day (bpd) in the coming months to compensate for exceeding its OPEC+ quota since January, the oil ministry said on Monday, a pledge that would cut shipments by 130,000 bpd from last month. OPEC's second-largest producer Iraq pumped significantly more in January and February than an output target established in January when several members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), including Iraq, agreed to support the oil market. OPEC+, whose de facto leader is Saudi Arabia, has highlighted the importance of compliance with the pledged cuts even as oil prices have rallied this year. Brent crude on Monday traded above $86 a barrel, the highest since November. Iraq's oil ministry said in a statement on Monday it was committed to voluntary cuts agreed with OPEC+, which limit it to producing 4 million bpd. Initially in place for the first quarter, the voluntary cuts have since been extended to the end of June. Secondary sources, which provide data on OPEC+ production, reported Iraq's output at 4.2 million bpd in February. Of this, Iraq exported an average 3.43 million bpd in February, the oil ministry said earlier this month, meaning Monday's pledge amounts to a cut of 130,000 bpd from last month's rate. Iraq said in February it would review its production and address any excess output above its OPEC+ cuts.

WTI, Brent Continues Rally as China's Fuel Exports Plunge -- Oil futures kicked off a new trading week with a solid rally after government data from China showed exports of refined fuels during January and February plummeted by double-digits from a year ago. It suggested a rebound in domestic fuel demand from transportation and heavy industry sectors while the disruption in Russia's refining complex following a fresh wave of drone attacks on its energy infrastructure could further tighten physical product market in coming weeks. Bank of America Global Research, citing National Bureau Statistics and China Customs data, said in a note to clients that Chinese exports of gasoline, diesel and kerosene fell to 5.6 million metric tons (mmt) during the first two months of the year, down 42% year-over-year. In January-February 2023, export volumes marked a post-pandemic high. China's domestic demand for air travel and road mobility recovered to pre-pandemic highs during this year's Lunar New Year Festival, celebrated from Jan. 21-Feb. 20, suggesting Chinese consumers feel more confident about spending and travel despite weakness in some pockets of the economy. Data released overnight also showed retail sales and industrial production for January and February in China beat market expectations, with retail sales up 5.5% compared with expectations for a 5% increase. Industrial production climbed 7% compared with estimates of a 4.5% growth rate. The latest macroeconomic data might suggest that China's domestic demand has begun to recover from its pandemic-induced slump. Separately, Ukraine launched a new attack March 17 on the Russian refining complex, targeting the Slavyansk-on-Kuban plant in the southern Krasnodar region. According to media reports, the attack sparked a violent fire at the refinery and affected electricity supplies across border regions with Ukraine. The string of drone attacks on Russian refineries in recent days has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity that, according to Russian officials, will lead to a short-term increase in crude oil exports. Russia's Energy Minister Nikolay Shulgin said last month that Russia has already reduced crude-processing activity by 7% since the beginning of the year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent futures extended last week's rallies triggered in part by a bullish near-term demand outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that now forecasts the global oil market disposition will slide into a deficit this year compared with expectations in February for a modest surplus. Underlying the bullish forecast is the assumption that OPEC+ cuts that now run through the end of the second quarter will be extended through the remainder of the year while global oil demand picks up momentum on the back of robust U.S. growth and signs of recovering fuel consumption in China. At settlement, NYMEX April WTI futures rallied $1.68 to $82.72 per barrle (bbl), trading intraday at a $83.09 bbl 4-1/2 month high on the spot continuous chart, with next-month May WTI futures holding a $0.56 bbl discount. ICE May Brent futures advanced to $86.89 bbl, up $1.55 bbl on the session after trading at a $87.18 4-1/2 month high on the spot continuous chart. NYMEX April ULSD futures gained $0.0612 to $2.7882 gallon, edging off a $2.7963 four-week period on the spot chart. April RBOB futures added $0.0365 for a $2.7573 gallon settlement, trimming an advance to a $2.7678 six-month high on the spot continuous chart.

Oil Hits New Cycle High After China Data, Russian Refinery Attacks, Iraq Supply Cuts - Oil prices hit a fresh four-month high as macro-economic data from China came in ahead of expectations, Iraq said it has reduced its oil exports for the coming months to absorb the oversupply from Jan. and Feb, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries heightened geopolitical risks and reduced the amount of distilled product produced in Russia. As a result, WTI broke out to test $82 overnight, hitting a five month high, while Brent breached $86, a level that seemed inconceivable in late December when the price was in the low $70s. Graph Source: Bloomberg. Turning to the catalysts, China's January-February activity data came in above market expectations. Industrial production growth edged up in January-February, against market expectation of a slowdown, as the boost from computer and ferrous smelting industries more than offset the drag from automobile and electric machinery industries. Fixed asset investment growth also accelerated in January-February, thanks to faster growth in manufacturing and "other" (mostly services and agriculture-related sectors) investment. However, it wasn't all rainbows for China as year-on-year growth in retail sales and services industry output both slowed in January-February on a high base last year (when pent-up demand was released right after China reopening). Additionally, the big kahuna showed no signs of improvement as property-related activity worsened broadly and meaningfully in year-on-year terms in January-February, reflecting either unfavorable base effects or sequential weakness. Labor market statistics remained largely stable. The nationwide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) moved slightly higher to 5.3% in January-February from 5.1% in December, in line with its seasonal patterns, while the 31-city metric remained unchanged at 5.0%. Argaam News reported that China's crude oil refining volume at the beginning of this year reached its highest levels ever, with increasing demand for fuel, according to government data issued today, March 18. The volume of oil refined in January and February rose 3% year-on-year to a record level of 118.76 million tons, which is equivalent to 14.51 million barrels per day, Bloomberg calculations showed. This is due to the rise in Chinese demand for fuel during the Lunar New Year holiday, which began in mid-February. According to the data, the demand for oil rose during the first two months of this year by 6.1% to 14.36 million barrels per day. All of these factors combined to push WTI to new four month highs...“It’s mostly driven by Chinese data,” “Chinese macroeconomic data — including refinery runs and apparent oil demand — have come in on the positive side.” Meanwhile, in Russia, drone strikes over the weekend hit multiple plants, some deep within the country’s territory. Overnight, Goldman's commodities team published a "chart of the week" (available to pro subs in the usual place) which showed a jump in "unplanned Russian refinery maintenance" to 0.7mb/d after March 13 drone attacks at Rosneft's 0.4kb/d refinery, which is the largest crude-processing facility in Russia.=

The Market Remained Well Supported By the Ukrainian Attacks Against Some Russian Refineries -- The oil market rallied sharply higher for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as the market remained well supported by the Ukrainian attacks against some major Russian refineries. Ukraine has targeted at least seven refineries with drones this month. The attacks have shut down 7% or about 370,500 bpd of Russian refining capacity. The oil market was also supported by lower crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in the U.S. and China. The crude market retraced some of Monday’s sharp gains in overnight trading and posted a low of $82.39. However, the market bounced off its low and continued to extend its previous gains, rallying over 1.3% as it posted a high of $83.85, a level not seen since late October. The oil market later traded in a sideways trading range as traders positioned themselves ahead of the weekly petroleum stocks reports. The April WTI contract settled up 75 cents at $83.47 and the May Brent contract settled up 49 cents at $87.38. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 2.75 cents at $2.7607 and the RB market settling up 49 points at $2.7622. UBS said it sees Brent likely trading in the $80-$90/barrel range this year, with an end of June forecast of $86/barrel. It said the extension of the voluntary OPEC+ production cuts for another three months is likely to keep the oil market undersupplied in the second quarter of 2024.Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said it made it “supremely clear” to U.S. President Joe Biden “that we are determined to complete the elimination of these battalions in Rafah, and there’s no way to do that except by going in on the ground.” The two leaders spoke by phone on Monday. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Washington believed a ground assault on Rafah would be a “mistake” and that Israel could achieve its military aims by other means. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a trip to the Middle East, where he would meet senior leaders of Saudi Arabia and Egypt this week. Ceasefire talks are resuming this week in Qatar after Israel rejected a Hamas counter-proposal last week. An Israeli delegation headed by the country’s spy chief travelled to Qatar on Monday, although an Israeli official said Israel believed any agreement would take at least two weeks to nail down. Separately, White House spokesperson, Karine Jean-Pierre said U.S. and Israeli officials will likely meet early next week in Washington to discuss Israel’s military operation in Rafah.Earlier, Britain's Deputy Prime Minister, Oliver Dowden, defended Israel's right to protect itself amid increasing tension between the Middle Eastern country and its biggest supporters, but called for an "immediate ceasefire" in Gaza on humanitarian grounds. He said the British government was "continuously" urging Israel to abide by international humanitarian law and had also raised concerns about getting aid into Gaza.The military spokesman for Yemen's Houthis, Yahya Sarea, said the group targeted a tanker, the MADO, in the Red Sea with naval missiles and Israel's Eilat region with winged missiles. MADO is a Marshall-Islands flagged LPG tanker heading to Singapore from Saudi Arabia, maritime shipping trackers showed. The Houthis described it as American.

Oil Rises on Tightening Supplies | Rigzone - Tightening oil supplies pushed West Texas Intermediate above $83 a barrel, extending a rally that has propelled prices to the highest since October. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have added pressure to fuel markets, driving up crude demand. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said 900,000 barrels of Russian refinery capacity is offline, adding a risk premium of $4 a barrel to oil prices. Separately, Iraq plans to cut oil exports. Crude’s upswing in recent days has seen several key market gauges turn more positive. Options markets have their least bearish tilt in months, and key timespreads suggest traders are pricing in a tighter market. Crude is on course for a third monthly advance after breaking free from a narrow range it had been trading in for much of the year. OPEC+ supply curbs have helped to bolster prices, with Iraq’s this week promising to make good on its output cuts. Data on Monday showed China’s factory output and investment grew more strongly than expected at the start of the year, and the nation refined a record amount of crude. In the US, meanwhile, a still-robust economy has prompted Federal Reserve policymakers to be cautious about when they can start to cut. Prices: WTI for April delivery rose 75 cents to settle at $83.47 in New York. Brent for May settlement climbed 49 cents to settle at $87.38 a barrel.

WTI Extends Losses Despite Crude, Gasoline Draws - After a strong run in the past few days, oil prices were sliding ahead of this morning's official DOE inventory and production data (following last night's 1.5mm barrel crude draw reported by API). DOE

• Crude -1.95mm
• Cushing -18k
• Gasoline -3.31mm
• Distillates +624k

Crude stocks drew-down for the second week in a row and the drawdowns for Gasoline stocks extended to a 7th straight week.. Crude production was flat on the week... WTI extended the morning's losses despite the crude and gasoline draws...

Oil Slides on Profit-Taking; USD Weakens on FOMC Outlook (DTN) -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Wednesday's session lower on profit-taking following recent gains, shrugging off a supportive inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and a downshift in the U.S. dollar index in response to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) outlook. FOMC concluded its two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon, leaving the federal funds rate unchanged in a 5.25% to 5.5% target range -- a move widely expected by the market. "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%," FOMC said in a statement Wednesday afternoon. Along with the rate announcement, the central bank updated economic projections for this year, forecasting stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a slightly lower unemployment rate and higher core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. Real GDP growth is now expected to rise to 2.1% by the end of this year, up from 1.4% in December 2023, with the unemployment rate averaging 4% over the forecasted period. Interestingly, core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is now projected to climb to 2.6%. That's higher than the 2.4% that central bank officials expected in December. Despite forecasting higher core inflation, Federal Reserve officials still see three rate cuts this year, expecting the federal funds rate to end 2024 at 4.6% -- unchanged from December's projections. The combination of stronger growth, an uptick in the inflation outlook and three rate cuts prompted the market to see a dovish shift by the Fed that might signal a higher tolerance for underlying inflation. In reaction, U.S. dollar took a 4.2% nosedive against a basket of foreign currencies to settle the session at 103.046 and stocks on Wall Street rallied to record highs as investors digested the Fed's new economic forecast. Wednesday's move lower in the oil complex also comes despite a mostly supportive inventory report released midmorning by the EIA showing total U.S. oil and petroleum products inventories were drawn down 6.149 million barrels (bbl) to a 14 1/2-month low. Commercial crude oil inventories declined 2 million bbl last week to 445 million bbl, with stocks about 3% below the five-year average. The larger-than-expected crude draw was realized as domestic refiners raised run rates for the fourth consecutive week to the highest level since early January at 87.8% of capacity, while crude exports surged to a 4.881 million barrels per day (bpd) four-week high. Gasoline inventories declined 3.3 million bbl to 230.8 million bbl, 2.4% below the seasonal five-year average. On the session, NYMEX April WTI futures expired $1.79 lower at $81.68 bbl, with May WTI narrowing its discount against the expired contract to $0.41 bbl. ICE May Brent futures dropped $1.43 to settle at $85.95 bbl. NYMEX April ULSD futures declined $0.0650 to $2.6957 gallon, while April RBOB futures fell back $0.0290 to $2.7332 gallon.

Crude Market Retreats Ahead of Fed Rate Policy Announcement and Contract Expiration The crude market on Wednesday erased its recent gains ahead of the April contract’s expiration at the close and as it awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy announcement. The market remained in negative territory throughout the session after opening at $83.20 and posting a high of $83.21 in overnight trading. The market sold off as the U.S. dollar index moved higher as the recent higher than expected inflation data raised fears that the Federal Reserve could take a more hawkish tone regarding the interest rate outlook at its policy meeting. The April WTI contract sold off to a low of $81.44 ahead of its expiration at the close. The expiring contract settled down $1.79 at $81.68 and the May WTI contract settled down $1.46 at $81.27. Meanwhile, the May Brent contract settled down $1.43 at $85.95. The product markets also ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 6.5 cents at $2.6957 and the RB market settling down 2.9 cents at $2.7332. The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks fell unexpectedly by 1.952 million barrels to 445 million barrels in the week ending March 15th, as exports increased and refiners continued to increase runs. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 3.31 million barrels on the week to 230.8 million barrels. Gulf Coast gasoline stocks fell by 1.82 million barrels on the week to 76.58 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2021. The Biden Administration moved to cut pollution from the nation’s cars and light trucks, imposing tailpipe emissions limits so stringent they will prompt automakers to increase sales of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models. The EPA’s mandates would require manufacturers to make a rapid shift toward zero-emission vehicles. EPA Administrator, Michael Regan, said the rule delivers the “strongest-ever vehicle pollution” standards in U.S. history. Under the rule, tailpipe emissions of carbon dioxide are capped at 85 grams per miles in 2032, down from 170 grams per mile for model year 2027. However much of the gains would come after 2030. The requirements could nearly halve fleet average emissions over existing standards for 2026. The measure also sets limits on soot and smog-forming pollution. The limits are projected to cut petroleum demand, with some 14 billion barrels of U.S. oil imports cut between now and 2055. Russian Energy Minister, Nikolai Shulginov, said Russia’s domestic fuel market is under constant surveillance. He added that measures were being taken retain a gasoline surplus. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, launching a tour of the Middle East to try to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza war amid increasing strain in the relationship between President Joe Biden's administration and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following his visit to Saudi Arabia, where he is expected to meet ruling crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, the U.S. Secretary of State is due in Egypt on Thursday and Israel on Friday. On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister rebuffed a plea from President Biden to call off plans for a ground assault of Rafah. Israel says Rafah is the last major holdout of armed fighters from Hamas. The U.S. says a ground assault there would be a "mistake" and cause too much harm to civilians. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 773,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending March 22nd, increasing available refining capacity by 337,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 744,000 bpd in the week ending March 29th.

Oil Slips, USD Recoup Losses as Traders Assess Fed Outlook -- Oil futures nearest delivery moved lower in early trading Thursday. The U.S. dollar clawed back some of Wednesday's steep losses triggered by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and an outlook by the central bank for easing monetary policy this year even as core inflation is seen picking up momentum on stronger growth in the service economy. Front-month May West Texas Intermediate futures stalled near $81 barrel (bbl), equity futures extended Wednesday's rally and U.S. dollar recouped some of Wednesday's losses as investors continued to digest a dovish shift by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC left its overnight bank funding rate unchanged at a 5.25% to 5.5% target range in line with market expectations but delivered a dovish surprise by penciling in three cuts in the federal funds rate this year despite lifting its forecast for inflation and economic growth. Real gross domestic product growth is now expected to rise to 2.1% by the end of this year, up from 1.4% seen in December 2023, with the unemployment rate averaging 4% over the forecasted period. Interestingly, the core personal consumption expenditures index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is now projected to climb to 2.6%. That's higher than the 2.4% inflation reading central bank officials expected in December. A combination of higher inflation and a stronger growth trajectory is joined with the Fed's forecast for three rate cuts this year -- unchanged from December's outlook. Speaking at a news conference Wednesday afternoon following the rate announcement, Powell said the unexpected pickup in inflation over the January and February period did not fundamentally change the Fed's outlook on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. The central bank still expects inflation to continue to cool, though more gradually than it thought three months ago. Markets saw a rhetorical shift by the Fed as a signal towards a higher tolerance for inflation that won't stop the central bank from lowering its policy rate. Investors boosted bets for a June rate cut to a 62.4% probability Thursday morning from 54.6% seen a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Separately, this week's inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude stocks in the United States fell 2 million bbl in the week ending March 15, as refinery activity picked up following planned and unplanned maintenance and repairs while crude exports surged to a four-week high 4.881 million barrels per day (bpd). Commercial crude stocks at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma were drawn down 100,000 bbl, leaving inventory nearly 15% lower year-on-year. Distillate fuel oil stocks rose 624,000 bbl in the week, bringing stocks 2% above the year-ago level for the seasonal period. Gasoline stocks, meanwhile, fell 3.3 million bbl, leaving gasoline stocks just 1.2 million bbl or 0.5% higher year-on-year. Total commercial petroleum stocks fell 6.149 million bbl to a 14-1/2 month low. In early trading, NYMEX May WTI futures slipped $0.50 to $80.77 bbl and ICE May Brent futures dropped $0.49 to $85.47 bbl. NYMEX April ULSD futures declined $0.0369 to $2.6588 gallon, while April RBOB futures fell back $0.0231 to $2.7101 gallon.

Reports of a U.N. Draft Resolution Calling For a Ceasefire in Gaza - The crude market continued to trend lower on Thursday on reports of a U.N. draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. The oil market traded higher in overnight trading amid a weaker U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed they see three interest rate cuts this year. The market posted a high of $81.92 as it retraced some of its previous losses. However, the market erased those gains and retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $76.43 to a high of $83.12 as it sold off to a low of $80.30 by mid-day. The oil market was pressured by confirmation that the U.S. drafted a U.N. resolution calling for a ceasefire that would allow the release of 40 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israeli jails. The market later bounced off its low and traded back over the $81.00 level ahead of the close. The May WTI, on its first session as the spot contract, settled down 20 cents at $81.07, while the May Brent contract settled down 17 cents at $85.78. The product markets ended the session lower once again, with the heating oil market settling down 2.69 cents at $2.6688 and the RB market settling down 61 points at $2.7271. Two U.S. Senators introduced legislation to harden the ban on selling crude oil from the SPR to China. The bill introduced by Senators Joni Ernst and John Fetterman would ensure that companies owned or controlled by China’s government do not buy oil from the SPR. The bill would also block the export or sale of SPR oil to countries including Russia, Venezuela and Syria. ING analysts expect the oil market to tighten. It said the rollover of voluntary supply cuts from OPEC+ into the second quarter, Ukraianian attacks on Russian refining capacity more recently and lingering disruptions to oil flows through the Red Sea have recently supported the market. It said the roll over of the OPEC+ supply cuts will shift the oil market from a surplus environment in the second quarter of the year to a deficit. It estimates a deficit of a little over 1 million bpd in the second quarter. It revised up its Brent forecast from $80/barrel for the second quarter of this year, while its third quarter forecast has been increased from $82/barrel to $88/barrel. As a result, for 2024 it expects Brent to average $86/barrel, up from a previous estimate of $82/barrel. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Thursday for talks on securing a Gaza ceasefire of around six weeks that would allow the release of 40 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israeli jails. He told the Arabic broadcaster Al Hadath that such a ceasefire would bring "immediate relief to so many people who are suffering in Gaza – the children, the women, the men", and that the U.S. had drafted a U.N. resolution to that effect. The EPA reported that the U.S. generated 1.21 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits in February, unchanged on the month. It also reported that the U.S. generated 732 million biodiesel blending credits in February, up from 675 million in January. Russia said that the United States was unlikely to agree to a Ukrainian proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $30/barrel because it would impact global energy markets and damage the U.S. economy. The chief negotiator for the Houthi movement, Mohammed Abdulsalam, said Yemen’s Houthis have provided assurances to both China and Russia that their vessels will pass safely through the Red Sea.

WTI Stalls Near $81 While Equities Extend Fed-Driven Rally (DTN) -- Nearby-delivery oil futures eased for a second session on Thursday while stocks on Wall Street soared to all-time highs and the U.S. dollar recouped Wednesday's losses sparked by the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) ongoing expectation for three rate cuts of 0.25% each later this year. Investors in broader markets had already trimmed the odds for the central bank to reduce the number of interest rate cuts to two times this year ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. By Thursday afternoon, bets for a June cut to the federal funds rate are back on the table with a more than 70% probability followed by expectations for two more cuts in September and November. The repricing was triggered by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who suggested the higher inflation seen at the start of the year hasn't fundamentally changed the central bank's outlook on the economy and monetary policy. "We still expect inflation to cool in coming months, though the progress could be more gradual and bumpier than in 2023," said Powell at a news conference Wednesday following the rate decision. What's notable is the FOMC in its Summary of Economic Projections upgraded its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product to 2.1% this year from December's 1.4% estimate, with the unemployment rate averaging 4%. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is now projected to climb to 2.6%. That's higher than the 2.4% inflation reading central bank officials expected in December. "We may look back at this week as the week in which the central bank stepped away from a very strict inflation target to much more of a concept of an inflation," said Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, during a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "We are living in a world where supply side is a problem, and we need to tolerate a slightly higher inflation if we don't want to sacrifice the economy." Although the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, there are some pockets flashing signs of a slowdown, including manufacturing and loan delinquencies for lower-income consumers. Credit card delinquency rates at large banks are at the highest levels since 2012 and at smaller banks are at all-time highs, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. U.S. manufacturing economy remained in a shallow recession for the 16th straight month in February, with sub-indexes of new orders and employment falling into deeper contraction, showed data from the Institute of Supply Management. Against this backdrop, markets welcomed the Fed's forward guidance on rate cuts, with Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 285 points on Thursday to an all-time high 39,830 before trimming the advance with a 39,781 close, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.32% and 0.2%, respectively. U.S. dollar index spiked 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 103.666, pressuring the front-month West Texas Intermediate contract. NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped $0.20 to $81.07 barrels (bbl) and ICE May Brent futures softened $0.17 for a $85.78 bbl settlement. NYMEX April ULSD futures declined $0.0269 to $2.6688 gallon, while April RBOB futures eased $0.0061 to $2.7271 gallon. In addition to the stronger dollar, which has an inverse relationship with the U.S. crude benchmark, oil futures came under technical pressure after rallying earlier in the week.

Oil settles lower on weaker US gasoline demand, Gaza ceasefire hopes (Reuters) - Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday, pressured by weaker U.S. gasoline demand data and reports of a United Nations draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.Brent crude futures for May settled down 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $85.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May settled own 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.07 a barrel after a fall of about 1.8% in the previous session.Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, unexpectedly declined last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday.Though gasoline inventories fell for a seventh week, down 3.3 million barrels to 230.8 million, gasoline product supplied, a proxy for product demand, slipped below 9 million barrels.The fall suggested that gasoline markets, which had underpinned a recent market rally, may have been overbought, according to Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.Oil prices also were pressured by confirmation that the U.S. drafted a U.N. resolution calling for a ceasefire that would allow the release of 40 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israeli jails, Yawger added.Investors also took heart from the U.S. central bank, which held interest rates in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday, but kept to an outlook for three rate cuts this year.Lower rates could boost economic growth, in good news for oil sales.U.S. business activity held steady in March, but prices increased across the board, suggesting that inflation could remain elevated after picking up at the start of the year.Supporting prices, U.S. Labor Department data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that job growth remained strong in March.Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries also prompted investors to trade crude at higher prices, factoring in that the strikes could hit global petroleum supplies.Ukrainian drones have targeted at least seven Russian refineries this month. The attacks have shut down 7%, or around 370,500 barrels per day, of Russian refining capacity, according to Reuters calculations.Analysts say prolonged disruptions could force Russian producers to reduce supply if they are unable to export crude oil and face storage constraints.Elsewhere, Germany's economy was likely in recession in the first quarter of 2024 as weak consumption and anaemic industrial demand continue to push the recovery further into the future, the central bank said in a regular economic report on Thursday.Also on Thursday, the Bank of England's governor said Britain's economy is "moving in the right direction" for the central bank to start cutting interest rates.

Oil prices down on Gaza ceasefire talks, flat on the week (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Friday and were flat on the week as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza weakened crude benchmarks, while the war in Europe and shrinking U.S. rig count cushioned the fall. Brent futures for May delivery settled at $85.43, losing 35 cents. U.S. crude settled at $80.63 a barrel, falling 44 cents. Both benchmarks logged less a than 1% change on the week. "Everyone is watching for what the weekend will bring with Gaza," adding that successful peace talks would prompt Yemen's Houthi rebels to allow oil tankers to pass through the Red Sea. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday he believed talks in Qatar could reach a Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Blinken met Arab foreign ministers and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo as negotiators in Qatar centred on a truce of about six weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was set for a second week of broad gains after the Swiss National Bank's surprise interest rate cut on Thursday bolstered global risk sentiment. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, dampening demand. While a possible ceasefire meant crude might move more freely globally, a lower U.S. oil rig count and the potential for easing U.S. interest rates helped support prices. "We are still keeping fresh highs on the table given broad-based expansion in risk appetite that accelerated following the mid-week Fed comments that proved less hawkish than anticipated," U.S. equities, which tend to move in correlation with oil prices, hit record highs after the Federal Reserve ended its regular meeting with no change in U.S. rates on Wednesday. The U.S. oil rig count fell by one to 509 this week, according to Baker Hughes data, indicating lower future supply. Money managers, meanwhile, upped their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions last week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said, with combined futures and options positions in New York and London rising by 57,394 contracts to 202,624. The conflict in Eastern Europe also kept oil prices from moving lower. Russia launched the largest missile and drone attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure of the war to date on Friday, hitting the country's largest dam and causing blackouts in several regions, Kyiv said. However, chatter has emerged within the market that Russia would further discount its barrels in light of the escalation. A steeper discount could make Russian crude more attractive to international buyers.

Russia Mulls Security Buffer Zone As Ukraine Drones Shut Down 600,000 Barrels Of Daily Refining After Russian President Vladimir Putin's post-election victory speech and Q&A with the press wherein he first unveiled the possibility of creating a buffer zone between Ukrainian land and Russian border regions, the Kremlin has issued more details of the plan being mulled. Putin had initially described Sunday, "I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ in the territories today under the Kyiv regime." He referenced the "tragic events" of cross-border attacks in regions bordering Ukraine which have left scores of civilians dead and wounded over the past several months.Putin described without elaborating further that the security zone "would be quite difficult for the adversary to overcome with its weapons, primarily of foreign origin." On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that as part of the plan Russia "would take measures to safeguard [its] territories" from Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks on critical infrastructure and civilian areas and residences. These areas can be made safe, he explained in follow-up to Putin's words, "some kind of corridor, some kind of… buffer zone that [would put] out of reach any means that the enemy might use to launch strikes." From Moscow's perspective, this is laying the foundation and likely even 'legal framework' for seizing and solidifying hold over border territories inside Ukraine for the purpose of creating this proposed buffer. In many cases thus far throughout the war, Ukraine forces have been able to send drones hundreds of kilometers inside Russia, reaching even Moscow and St. Petersburg in rare instances. Oil refineries have been especially targeted, with a dozen or more instances in merely the last few months alone. Crimea too has come under increased drone swarm attack.The attacks on energy are clearly beginning to have significant impact on a chief source of revenue, part of which no doubt goes to fund the Russian war machine in Ukraine. "Gunvor Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Torbjörn Törnqvist estimates about 600,000 barrels of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity has been knocked out by Ukrainian drone strikes," Bloomberg reports based on a Monday report. According to some key quotes:

Fearing Spike in Oil Prices, US Tells Ukraine To Halt Attacks on Russian Energy - US officials are losing patience as Kiev fails to heed American demands to stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure. The White House fears the attacks will lead to an increase in oil prices and trigger reprisals by Moscow. According to the Financial Times, “The White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots, and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity,” adding that US officials are concerned with “driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation.” The demands to halt attacks on Russian oil facilities may appear confounding to Kiev after NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg green-lit Ukrainian attacks inside Russia last month. Additionally, President Joe Biden has vowed to cripple the Russian economy, and the West has used sanctions and price caps in an effort to curb Moscow’s energy exports. The White House may see increasing gas prices at home as a primary concern with the 2024 election on the horizon. Bob McNally, a former White House energy adviser, said, “Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” as cited by FT. As Ukrainian losses on the battlefield have continued in recent weeks, Kiev has conducted more attacks on Russian soil. This has led the Kremlin to evacuate thousands of children from a border region. Ukrainian forces also successfully attacked seven energy targets in Russia last week. Washington’s fear that attacks on Moscow’s energy infrastructure will prompt retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian energy seems to have materialized. On Friday, the BBC reported, “A million people are without power across Ukraine after Russian missiles targeted energy infrastructure,” with Kiev’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko saying Moscow aimed to cause “a large-scale failure of the country’s energy system.”

Heavily Armed Militants Storm Pakistan's China-Operated Gwadar Port, 7 Dead - A rare terror attack has unfolded at Pakistan's strategic port city of Gwadar on Wednesday, which is crucial to the multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A group of heavily armed militants stormed the complex and engaged in a lengthy firefight with security forces.Pakistan authorities identified the attackers as Baloch separatists, which had also been armed with bombs. At least seven of the militants were shot dead by security forces. The port has for more than the past decade been run by the China Overseas Port Holding Company.There are unconfirmed reports that a soldier may have died in the attack. "Attackers carried out many blasts," government official Saeed Ahmed Umrani announced in the aftermath.Few details have been given about how precisely the attack unfolded, but regional media has indicated that "Majeed Brigade of the proscribed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for the attack." The group said it targeted Pakistan intelligence offices. A heavy police and military presence responded to the port as gunfire was still ringing out.This southwestern region of the Pakistani province of Balochistan (also the name of a region which extends into Iran and Afghanistan) has been focus of heavy investment from China, and despite Balochistan being well-known for its natural resources including minerals, gas, and coal - the local population remains in severe poverty.Ethnic separatist and radical Islamic terrorist organizations have for years waged a long-running insurgency against the government and its foreign partners, accusing Islamabad of exploiting the population of the region.These groups have especially sought to target infrastructure and projects of the CPEC, seeing in it further confirmation that the Pakistan government is stealing from locals and enriching itself off foreign investments.

US Missile Strikes Target Yemen’s Red Sea Port of Hodeidah -US and British fighter jets launched 10 airstrikes against Yemen’s Red Sea port city of Hodeidah on Monday,the Houthis’ Al Masirah TV reported, as the US bombing campaign continues despite its failure to deter the Houthis.US Central Command confirmed that it launched a series of strikes against Houthi-controlled Yemen on Monday but did not say if the UK was involved. Yemenis have been attributing most strikes to both the US and the UK since the British joined the Americans for the first round of bombing on January 12 and have been involved in several rounds of strikes since.CENTOM claimed that between 1:00 pm and 7:40 pm (Sanaa time), its forces “successfully engaged and destroyed seven anti-ship missiles, three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and three weapons storage containers in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.”Al Masirah did not report any casualties, and there was no confirmation from the Houthi side on the US claims that it destroyed weapons. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said last week that 34 Yemeni fighters have been killed since the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, began targeting Israeli commercial shipping in response to the onslaught in Gaza. At least one civilian has been killed in the new US bombing campaign,according to the Yemen Data Project.Al-Houthi mentioned the casualties when announcing that Ansar Allah intended to expand its scope of attacks to target Israeli-linked shipping in the Indian Ocean that was looking to avoid the Red Sea, demonstrating that the US bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Houthis.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced Tuesday that Houthi forces targeted and struck the MADO, which he described as an American oil tanker. So far, there’s been no confirmation of the strike from the US.The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became more of a capable fighting force during that time. The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

Israeli Airstrikes Hit Syria for Second Time This Week - Israeli airstrikes hit targets outside of the Syrian capital of Damascus this week, marking the second time Israeli warplanes bombed the country this week. According to Syria’s SANA news agency, the strikes caused some material damage, but no casualties were reported.“At approximately 02:10 am on Tuesday, the Israeli enemy launched an aerial attack from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting a number of military points in the Damascus countryside,” a Syrian military source told SANA. “Our air defenses repelled the aggression’s missiles and shot down some of them.”The source said only material damage was reported. Other Syrian military sources told Reuters that one of the strikes hit an ammunition depot for Lebanon’s Hezbollah that’s in the country. Israel has been bombing southern Lebanon on a daily basis and is threatening a full-blown war.Israel has been bombing Syria with impunity for years and has significantly stepped up its airstrikes in the country since October 7. Some of the Israeli strikes have killed members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), risking a response from Iran and a wider regional war.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has said it’s recorded a total of 25 Israeli attacks on Syria this year, including 17 airstrikes and eight rocket attacks by ground forces.

Israel Will Steal 16% of Gaza's Land By Establishing 'Buffer Zone' - Israel’s plan to create a “buffer zone” inside Gaza along its border with Israel will take 16% of the Strip’s territory, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing an analysis of the operation by Adi Ben Nun, a Hebrew University geography professor.Israel has begun the process of constructing the zone, which involves demolishing Palestinian homes and agricultural land that are in the way. The buffer will be about 1 kilometer (.6 miles) in width.Israeli media reported in January that Israel had destroyed 1,100 of the 2,800 buildings in the border areas. In that same month, 21 Israeli soldiers were killed while working to demolish a building after a Hamas rocket detonated explosives IDF soldiers had planted.The Israeli military insists it needs to create the buffer zone to prevent future October 7-style attacks. But the plan also advances Israel’s seizure of Gaza’s territory, and many ministers in the Israeli government favor re-establishing Jewish settlements in the Strip.On top of the buffer zone on the border, Israel is also constructing a road that will cut the Gaza Strip in two. Israel claims that it doesn’t seek to occupy Gaza but wants to maintain open-ended security control of the Strip, which is not possible without some form of occupation.

UNICEF Says Israel Has Killed Over 13,000 Children in Gaza - The UN’s child relief agency said on Sunday that over 13,000 children have been killed in the Gaza Strip and that many more could be dead under the rubble.“Thousands more have been injured, or we can’t even determine where they are. They may be stuck under rubble,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, according to Reuters. “We haven’t seen that rate of death among children in almost any other conflict in the world.”Gaza’s Health Ministry has said over 31,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and has consistently stated that around 70% of the casualties are women and children.Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin previously said over 25,000 women and children had been killed in Gaza, but the Pentagon walked his comment back, claiming he was talking about all Palestinians killed.Russel said that she visited a hospital ward where children were suffering from severe malnutrition and said the place was quiet because “the children, the babies … don’t even have the energy to cry.”Separately, the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said one in three children under the age of two in Gazais now acutely malnourished. “Children’s malnutrition is spreading fast and reaching unprecedented levels in Gaza,” UNRWA said. Children have already started to starve to death in Gaza, with dozens of malnutrition deaths already reported.Despite the horrific situation and Israel’s continued restrictions on aid, the US is still providing unconditional military aid to support the slaughter and starvation campaign against the Palestinians in Gaza.

One-Third of Children Under 2 in Northern Gaza Now Acutely Malnourished - Around one-third of children under two in northern Gaza are now suffering from acute malnutrition, the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund announced on Friday.That's double the percentage of children under two who suffered from acute malnutrition in January, as the rate jumped from 15.6-31% in one month."The speed at which this catastrophic child malnutrition crisis in Gaza has unfolded is shocking, especially when desperately needed assistance has been at the ready just a few miles away," UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said in a statement."The situation is beyond catastrophic." The UNICEF data came from screenings it conducted with its partners in February. While the rates of malnutrition are higher in the north, no part of Gaza remains untouched. As a whole, the agency concluded that "malnutrition among children is spreading fast and reaching devastating and unprecedented levels in the Gaza Strip due to the wide-reaching impacts of the war and ongoing restrictions on aid delivery."A full 28% of children in Khan Younis in central Gaza have acute malnutrition, while in Rafah, around 10% suffered from acute malnutrition by the end of February. That was also double the 5% who suffered from acute malnutrition in January in the southern city. In the north, as many as 25% of children under five also suffer from acute malnutrition, up from 13%. The new figures come as humanitarian groups and U.N. agencies have been warning about potential famine in the Gaza Strip for months.UNICEF also found in February that 4.5% of children in shelters and health centers in northern Gaza suffer from severe wasting, the most serious and potentially fatal form of malnutrition, for which the necessary treatment is not on hand. In Khan Younis, more than 10% of the malnourished children have severe wasting. Even in Rafah, the number of children under two with severe wasting more than quadrupled from 1% to over 4% between January and the end of February.In total, at least 23 children have died from starvation or dehydration in northern Gaza in the last few weeks alone, UNICEF said. Israel's bombardment and invasion of Gaza has been particularly devastating for children as a whole, killing around 13,450 out of a total death toll ofmore than 31,000, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health."We've been sounding the alarm that children will die due to malnutrition and disease since the beginning of the war," Save the Children UK said on social media on Saturday. "Our worst fears have now come true. These man-made conditions continue to deteriorate toward famine and will continue to take innocent children's lives."

It's Journalistic Malpractice To Say Gazans Are Starving Without Saying Israel Is Starving Them by Caitlin Johnstone -- The mass media are printing some amazingly depraved headlines about a new UN-backed report on starvation in Gaza from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, who says half the enclave’s population is now at the highest-possible threat level for starvation. The New York Times has a real corker out titled “Famine Is Projected for Northern Gaza, Experts Say”, subtitled “A global authority on food security said that in the coming months, as many as 1.1 million people in Gaza could face the severest levels of hunger.” A casual news consumer could get multiple paragraphs into this article assuming that people in a place called Gaza are suffering from some kind of famine caused by natural events, like a drought or something. Not until paragraph four would they encounter the word “Israeli”, and not until paragraph five would they encounter the line “Israeli’s bombardment and a near-total blockade.” At a time when only 20 percent of news readers ever make it past the headline of a given story, this is an extremely destructive and propagandistic act of journalistic malpractice. The editors of The New York Times know exactly what they’re doing packaging a story about Israel’s deliberate starvation of Palestinian civilians like it’s a troubling prediction about the weather. Contrast the New York Times’ headline with that of Al Jazeera’s report on the same story: “Gaza headed towards famine amid Israeli aid curbs: What to know”. That’s the normal way to present a story about a deliberately inflicted famine upon an imperiled population. If a population was being deliberately starved by siege warfare from a nation like Russia, China or Iran, we may be absolutely certain that the name of that nation would appear in the headline. But because the western media exist to generate propaganda and not to report the news, we get headlines like “Gaza faces famine during Ramadan, the holy month of fasting” from the BBC, and “Famine in northern Gaza is imminent as more than 1 million people face ‘catastrophic’ levels of hunger, new report warns” from CNN, and “Famine imminent in northern Gaza, says UN-backed report” from Reuters, and “‘Catastrophic levels of hunger’ in Gaza mean famine is imminent, says aid coalition” from The Guardian. We saw this with Saudi Arabia’s US-backed starvation of Yemen as well. When the mass media talked about Yemen at all (usually they just ignored it), editors consistently obfuscated the fact that this was a population being deliberately starved by a cruel blockade and the deliberate targeting of food infrastructure. The fact that it was being made possible by the United States was almost never mentioned. This is a very good example of how western propaganda works, by the way. The mainstream western press don’t generally make up whole-cloth lies (though they will uncritically print claims made by western government agencies who have an extensive history of lying); what they do is rely on half-truths, distortions and lies by omission to give their audiences a wildly slanted picture of what’s going on in the world. By always going out of their way to tell you an enemy of the US-centralized empire is committing an atrocity the millisecond it looks like they might be, while being furtive and obfuscatory about the crimes of the US and its allies, they give their audience a skewed understanding of who is and is not committing the real evils in our world. This doesn’t typically happen as a result of any grand monolithic conspiracy; it’s mostly just the natural consequence of having all the major news platforms controlled by wealthy and powerful people who each have a vested interest in manufacturing consent for the status quo upon which their wealth and power are premised. The oligarchs control the media, and they hire the executives who run the media, and the executives hire the editors who write the headlines and guide the reporters to report a certain way, and this gives rise to a system where everyone working for the outlet conducts themselves in a way that just so happens to suit the powerful people on top. Then before you know it you’ve got editors at The New York Times — a paper that’s been published by the same family for over a century — packaging a story about starvation caused by an Israeli siege to look like it’s a story about an innocent crop failure. Odds are nobody told them to do that; they just learned over the years that that’s how you rise to the top in an outlet like The New York Times.

Israel Seizes West Bank Land for Future Settlements -The Israeli government has confiscated a swath of territory in the occupied West Bank to make way for a new settlement block, designating nearly 2,000 acres as “state land.” The decision comes weeks after Tel Aviv greenlit the construction of thousands of additional settlement units beyond the green line. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the “important and strategic” move on Friday, saying that some 1,980 acres of land in the northern Jordan Valley had been approved for future development. “While there are those in Israel and the world who seek to undermine our right to Judea and Samaria and the country in general, we promote the settlement movement with hard work and in a strategic manner across the country,” he said, using a biblical term for the West Bank favored by Israeli settlers. The designation will allow for the construction of more than 100 settlement units in the Jordan Valley, as well as a commercial and industrial zone, according to Israeli broadcaster Kan. Under Israeli law, labeling territory “state land” creates a pretext for the further expansion of settlement communities in the West Bank – long considered a “flagrant violation” of international law by the United Nations and other rights groups. According to Israeli settlement watchdog Peace Now, the land-grab marks Israel’s largest seizure in the West Bank since the signing of the ill-fated Oslo Accords in 1993. “The declaration of state land is one of the main methods by which the State of Israel seeks to assert control over land in the occupied territories,” the group said in a statement. “Land declared as state land is no longer considered privately owned by Palestinians in the eyes of Israel, and they are prevented from using it. Additionally, the state leases state land exclusively to Israelis.” This year has already reached a “peak in the extent of declarations of state land,” Peace Now added, with Tel Aviv confiscating some 2,629 acres in the first quarter of 2024 alone. The decision also comes weeks after Israeli officials authorized the construction of more than 3,400 new settlement units elsewhere in the occupied West Bank, including 2,402 homes in the Ma’ale Adumim community, 694 in Efrat and another 330 in Keidar. That announcement was condemned by humanitarian orgs, with UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk saying the project would “fly in the face of international law.”

Former US ambassador Ryan Crocker: Nearly every Arab state has long viewed the Palestinians with “fear and loathing” -- The Arab regimes have not lifted a finger to oppose Israel’s genocidal war and ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Instead, they have colluded every step of the way with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s gang of fascists, settlers and religious bigots committed to Jewish Supremacy “from the River Jordan to the Mediterranean Sea”, even as they wring their hands and call for a ceasefire. Netanyahu and his paymaster in Washington have counted on them doing so because their entire record in relation to the Palestinians has been one of shameless betrayal. When asked last Sunday whether the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) would move into Rafah, Netanyahu replied, “We’ll go there. We’re not going to leave them.” He added that he had the tacit support of several Arab leaders, saying, “They understand that, and even agree with it quietly,” in an interview with German media giant Axel Springer on Sunday March 10. “They understand Hamas is part of the Iranian terror axis,” he said. Netanyahu named no names, but he did not need to. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have all been in constant communication with Israel and senior Biden administration officials under the guise of mediating an agreement on the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Retired US diplomat Ryan Crocker was, however, far more explicit in confirming every word that Netanyahu said. In a revealing interview with Politico magazine last month, he let the cat out of the bag, stating unequivocally why, despite publicly supporting Palestinian rights, none of the Arab regimes are willing to accept Palestinian refugees—because they have long viewed the Palestinians with “fear and loathing.” Crocker is in a position to know. Beginning his diplomatic career with a posting in the US consulate in the inland port city of Khorramshahr, near Iran’s oilfields, in 1972 during the Shah’s reign, he later served in Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Kuwait. While it is not necessary to accept everything he said, Crocker did expose the Arab regimes’ undying hatred of the Palestinians and gave examples of their repeated treachery and duplicity. In reviewing the history of the Palestinians, Crocker explained that the Nakba of 1948, when more than 700,000 Palestinians fled to Jordan, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria to escape Zionist terrorism and the Arab-Israeli war of 1947-49, “shook the legitimacy of Arab regimes. Seven Arab states declared war on the Zionists—and were decisively routed. Arab leaders feared the consequences of their failure in Palestine, both from elements within their own societies and from Palestinians themselves… But the fact that [Palestine Liberation Army] units were under the command of the Arab armies allowed them to keep control of Palestinian arms until the [1967] Six Day War.” He described the Palestinians’ experience as refugees in neighbouring Arab countries as “pure hell by and large.” Only in Jordan did they get citizenship. In Lebanon, they remain stateless, they cannot own property and face restrictions on the jobs they are allowed to do, leaving them subject to super exploitation.

The most gruesome war you’ve never heard of - Some op-eds leap off the newspaper page, informing and challenging us at the same time — posing difficult questions forcing us to reckon with flaws not in only in our politics but in ourselves. I’m talking about this week’s important piece in the New York Times by Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She writes about a war that is a “living hell,” where “famine is looming” and millions “have been forced from their homes in what has become the world’s largest internal displacement crisis.” Where “measles, cholera and other preventable diseases have spread”; and where “combatants on both sides of the war have undermined” efforts to provide humanitarian aid. Where war crimes are committed.Perhaps it all sounds familiar — but it’s not. Greenfield isn’t writing about the about the war in Gaza, she’s reminding us about the civil war in Sudan. Let me repeat: reminding us. Because the battle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces may be the most gruesome current war you’ve never heard of.Greenfield sounds the alarm because too many of us have been all but deaf to the wailing. In late February, I read a detailed U.N. situation report about Sudan.. It’s a chilling, barbaric litany of indiscriminate attacks on densely populated areas; the firing of missiles on public markets; the use of residential areas for military purposes; the attacks on hospitals and mosques; the displacement of 6.7 million people (half of whom are children); the killing of civilians; sexual and gender-based violence; abductions, kidnappings and arbitrary detentions; the recruitment of children to take up arms to “win the honour of defending the homeland”; and on and on. Nearly a month has passed since the report’s release, and I’ve seen no visible eruption of moral outrage that holds even a flickering candle to the firestorm of protest against Israel. No massive protests over Sudan tying up streets and bridges in Western cities. No demonstrations erupting on our college campuses or professors refusing to teach unless the government of Sudan agrees to a cease fire. No chants along the lines of, “From the Nile River to the Red Sea, Sudan Will Be Free!” No actors at the Oscars wearing ribbons symbolizing their affinity with a cessation of hostilities in North Africa. I’ve wondered why so many activists who froth at the mouth against Israel seem to yawn at atrocities in Sudan. Is it just not fashionable to gather all that energy and outrage when the war crimes are in North Africa? Not worth lifting a sharpie to placards, a megaphone to lips, banners to the wind? Do innocent Black lives in Sudan not matter as much? And what about the right? Where are the fulminations on Fox News? The hair-trigger barrage if the president shows policy distance with the wobbly centers of authority in Sudan? Is the silence because the right-wing punditry finds less interest in a military conflagration that can’t be instantly weaponized against a Democrat? Silence towards Sudan reveals a vulnerability, a softness in the hardline of the mass protests against Israel after it responded to the massacre of its citizens on Oct. 7. You can’t claim to be for universal human rights only when it’s about certain humans. You can’t relish in your moral absolutism while drawing squishy lines around conflicts that may have less cachet than others. Sudan is burning. People are dying. Won’t any of the activists so eager to criticize Israel pay attention? Or will they continue to wave banners, not as signs of their support of human rights, but surrenders to hypocrisy?