week sees the largest March addition to natural gas supplies since 2012 despite record flows to LNG export plants

US oil prices ended higher for a third straight week, following seven straight weekly declines, on an across the board withdrawal from oil and fuel inventories after Trump threatened new tariffs on those who buy Venezuelan oil…after rising 2.0% to $68.28 a barrel last week on a larger than expected drop in US fuel supplies and on new US sanctions on Iran, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for May delivery edged lower on Asian markets on Monday​, as traders evaluated the impact of US-led efforts to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, amid growing economic concerns tied to upcoming US tariffs, but moved higher in US trading on signs the Trump administration was taking a measured approach on tariffs against its trading partners, and settled 83 cents higher at $69.11 a barrel after Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela…oil prices extended their gains for a fifth straight session on global markets on Tuesday, driven by concerns over potential supply constraints following fresh U.S. tariffs on nations importing Venezuelan crude, but then retreated from those gains in New York trading on news that the U.S. ​had reached separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia that might pave the way to an end of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and settled 11 cents lower at $69.00 a barrel as a maritime and energy truce between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter supplies due to threatened U.S. tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude…​oil prices rose during Asian trading on Wednesday​, as concerns over tighter supply grew following Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela, then topped $70 for the first time in 3 weeks following an across the board inventory draw reported by API overnight and confirmed by the EIA Wednesday morning​, and settled up 65 cents at $69.65 a barrel, buoyed by government data showing U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, and by mounting concerns about tighter global supply following the U.S. threat of tariffs on nations buying Venezuelan oil….oil prices were steady near one-month highs on global markets on Thursday, as traders assessed the impact of new US 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, and likewise traded in a narrow range in New York as the market continued to assess the U.S. tariff announcements while concerns over global supply supported prices, and settled 27 cents higher near a one month high of $69.92 a barrel as traders assessed a tightening of crude supplies​ along with new U.S. tariffs and their expected effect on the world's economy, and weighed escalating trade war risks….oil prices declined in Asian trading on Friday on concerns that new US tariffs would impact demand, then fell 56 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $69.36 a barrel ​during the New York ​session on worries that U.S. tariff wars could spark a global recession, but still managed to post a 1.6% gain for the week…

meanwhile, natural gas prices finished higher for the first time in three weeks on record flows to LNG plants and late forecasts for greater demand over the next two weeks than had been expected…after falling 3.0% to $3.980 per mmBTU last week following the first injection of surplus gas into storage since November, the price of the benchmark contract for April natural gas delivery opened 4.0 cents lower and remained depressed on Monday, as warming weather forecasts over the weekend applied bearish pressure throughout the session, and settled 6.6 cents lower at $3.914 per mmBTU as both well production and flows to LNG export plants continued at a record pace….natural gas prices opened slightly higher Tuesday, but cascaded lower throughout the session, as strengthening production and weak demand overcame storage deficit woes, and settled 7.4 cents lower at a three week low of $3.840 per mmBTU on ongoing record ​gas output and​ on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks…. gas prices opened slightly higher again on Wednesday, then traded in a tight band near $3.880 throughout the morning, as steady LNG demand helped to keep prices afloat, then settled 2.1 cents higher at $3.861 per mmBTU on record gas flows to LNG export plants and ​h​igher demand forecasts for the next two weeks…natural gas prices moved lower overnight in response to a bearish shift in forecasted weather and opened 5.2 cents lower on Thursday, but moved higher from that level on a decline in daily output, record flows to LNG export plants, and forecasts for more demand this week than was previously expected to settle 8.9 cents higher at $3.950 per mmBTU, as trading in the US April natural gas contract ended, while the more actively traded contract for natural gas for May delivery settled 5.3 cents higher at $3.925 per mmBTU….with markets now quoting the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for May delivery, that price slipped in early trading on Friday, as traders assessed divergent weather models and a bearish Thursday inventory report, but surged in afternoon trading to settle 14 cents higher at $4.065 per mmBTU​. as bargain buying at lows and longer-range fundamentals fueled bullish momentum….natural gas prices thus finished 2.1% higher for the week, while the May natural gas contract, which had finished the prior week priced at $3.931, finished 3.4% higher…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending March 21st indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 37 billion cubic feet to 1,744 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the largest March increase since 2012, which left our natural gas supplies 557 billion cubic feet, or 24.2% below the 2,301 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on March 21st of last year, and 122 billion cubic feet, or 6.5% less than the five-year average of 1,866 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 21st of March over the most recent five years….the 37 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was larger than the average 25 billion cubic foot addition to storage that analysts in a Reuters' poll were expecting, and contrasts with the 30 billion cubic foot that was pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in March of 2024, and also the average 31 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same March week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending March 21st indicated that after an decrease in the supply of oil that the EIA could not account for and an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, we had to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the second time in nine weeks and the for the 23rd time in thirty-eight weeks, in spite of an big increase in our oil imports...Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 810,000 barrels per day to average 6,195,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average 85,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 35,000 barrels per day to average 4,609,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 1,586,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending March 21st, an average of 845,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 595,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 13,574,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 15,755,000 barrels per day during the March 21st reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,750,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 21st, an average of 87,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that an average of 436,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending March 21st averaged a rounded 441,000 barrels per day more than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -441,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 1,037,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,477,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 436,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 477,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 41,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the sixty-fourth SPR increase in the past seventy-four weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 5,716,000 barrels per day last week, which was 11.0% less than the 6,423,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 1,000 barrels per day higher at 13,574,000 barrels per day as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 13,137,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 1,000 barrels per day higher at 437,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 3.6% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.9% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 87.0% of their capacity while processing those 15,750,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending March 21st, up from their 86.9% utilization rate of a week earlier, but down from the 91.7% utilization rate of nine weeks earlier, initially reflecting the impact of January's below freezing weather on Gulf Coast refineries, and then the onset of US refinery’s usual Spring maintenance…. the 15,750,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 1.1% less than the 15,932,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending March 22nd of 2024, and were 0.5% less than the 15,831,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending March 22nd, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 86.6%, also somewhat low for this time of year…

Even with the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat lower, decreasing by 401,000 barrels per day to 9,222,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 21st, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 67,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 0.1% more than the 9,213,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending March 22nd of last year, but was 4.5% less than the gasoline production of 9,657,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending March 22nd, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 100,000 barrels per day to 4,513,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 151,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that production decrease, our distillates output was 6.3% less than the 4,814,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending March 22nd of 2024, and was also 8.3% less than the 4,923,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending March 22nd, 2019…

With this week’s big decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the sixth time in seven weeks, decreasing by 1,446,000 barrels to 239,128,000 barrels during the week ending March 21st, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 527,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell by more this week even as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 174,000 barrels per day to 8,643,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 68,000 barrels per day to 589,000 barrels per day, and while our exports of gasoline fell by 229,000 barrels per day to 665,000 barrels per day.…Even after thirty-three gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past sixty weeks, our gasoline supplies were 3.0% higher than last March 22nd’s gasoline inventories of 232,072,000 barrels, and were about 2% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

With the decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels fell for the eighteenth time in twenty-seven weeks, decreasing by 421,000 barrels to 114,362,000 barrels during the week ending March 21st, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 2,812,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies fell by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 374,000 to 3,636,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 204,000 barrels per day to 1,057,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 137,000 barrels per day to 120,000 barrels per day...After 37 inventory withdrawals over the past 62 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.5% below the 117,337,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on March 22nd of 2024, and about 7% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, with the increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 12th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 27th time over the past year, decreasing by 3,341,000 barrels over the week, from a 35 month high of 436,968,000 barrels on March 14th to 433,627,000 barrels on March 21st, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 1,745,000 barrels over the prior week… After that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 5% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were about 32% above the average of our available crude oil stocks after the third week of March over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this March 21st were 3.2% less than the 448,207,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on March 22nd of 2024, and 8.5% less than the 473,691,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on March 24th 2023, but were 5.8% more than the 409,950,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on March 25th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count decreased by one during the week ending March 28th, as two oil rigs were shut down while one rig targeting natural gas started drilling...for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of March 28th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (March 21st) and this week’s (March 28th) count, the third column shows last week’s March 21st active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 29th of March, 2024…

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$9.6M Renovation Coming to Salt Fork State Park, Thx to Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News --Last week, MDN told you that fracking has begun under the park, and literally nobody noticed (see Drilling Begins Under Salt Fork State Park – “No Signs of Fracking”). The radical left has been stroking out over the prospect of drilling under (not on) Salt Fork and other state-owned parks and lands. The Big Green-backed Save Ohio Parks protested in Columbus earlier this month, wearing and using fossil fuels to protest fossil fuels and drilling under Ohio’s parks (see Antis Rally at OH Statehouse to Protest Fossil Fuels They Were Wearing). With the din of irrational antis now dying down comes word that Salt Fork State Park, Ohio’s biggest start park (in Guernsey County), is getting a $9.6 million makeover courtesy of the money the state received from the shale frackers who are now fracking underneath the park.

CPP Wants to Invest Another $12.5B into Oil, Gas -- CPP Investments’ door is to oil and gas investment stories as the giant Canada Pension Plan wants to double its energy portfolio to $50 billion in the coming years.“Our $25 billion [energy] portfolio is half renewables and low-carbon and half traditional energy,” Bill Rogers, a CPP Investments managing director and its global head of sustainable energies, said at the recent CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.“And as we double to $50 billion [in energy], we'll look to maintain that diversification.”Based in London, Rogers joined CPP from Macquarie Group and began his career atShell Oil and McKinsey & Co.Its money is long-hold, unlike traditionally build-and-flip private equity investment funds, he said.“We're quite unusual,” Rogers said.Also, it’s hands-on, unlike pension funds, institutional funds and others. “As a half-trillion-[U.S.]-dollar fund, we can hire our own team investing in private and public equity,” Rogers said.Launched in 1999 with CA$12.1 million that has grown to CA$700 billion as of year-end 2024, “we are a young pension fund; our liabilities are quite backdated. So we have a lot more inflows, which means that we're investing for long-term capital growth.” Most pension funds invest through managers. “They may be directly investing in public markets, but they'll be investing through the VCs [venture-capital shops], private-equity firms and infrastructure funds.” Some of CPP’s current oil and gas holdings include $1.3 billion in Utica Shale oil-focused Encino Acquisition Partners, including an additional $300 million last spring. Also in Appalachia, it has a more than $1 billion, 35% stake in a midstream joint venture with Williams Cos. in the Utica and Marcellus shales.In the Rockies, CPP’s Crestone Peak Resources merged with Extraction Oil & Gas andBonanza Creek in 2021, forming Civitas Resources. CPP held a 16.5% stake in the stock, according to Civitas’ most recent DEF 14A filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.CPP invested more than $800 million in Denver-based gas pipeline operator Tallgrass Energy in August.In U.S. oilfield services, its VoltaGrid Technologies provides in-field power to well-completion pressure-pumping operations.In western Canada, it holds positions in oil and gas producer Teine Energy and in pipeline company Wolf Midstream, which holds 100% of Access pipeline.Offshore Ireland, in a joint venture with Canada’s Vermilion Energy, its Nephin Energy operates the Corrib gas field and is Ireland’s largest gas producer. “Our CEO likes to say that divestment is a short on human ingenuity,” Rogers said.

SRBC Renews Water Use Permits for 34 Marcellus/Utica Shale Pads - Marcellus Drilling News - The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals and consumptive use for responsible and safe shale drilling. The SRBC published a notice in the March 22 Pennsylvania Bulletin that the Commission renewed 34 general water use permits in January for individual shale gas well drilling pads in Bradford, Centre, Clinton, Elk, Lycoming, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, and Wyoming counties.

SRBC Stops Creek Water Withdrawals for 18 Shale Gas Projects - On March 27, the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) online Hydrologic Conditions Monitor showed low stream flows have triggered restrictions on 18 shale gas water withdrawal points in Bradford, Potter, Susquehanna, Tioga, and Wyoming counties. Another 17 shale gas withdrawals are approaching restrictions. Of the water withdrawal points regulated by SRBC, only shale gas development water withdrawals currently have restrictions because they take water from smaller streams.

DEP: US Interior Dept. Withdraws Orphan Oil & Gas Well Regulatory Improvement Grant Program To Help Prevent Future Well Abandonments, A Severe Problem In PA - On March 20, the Department of Environmental Protection told the Oil and Gas Technical Advisory Board the US Department of the Interior has "withdrawn" the Orphan Oil and Gas Well Regulatory Improvement Act Grant Program designed to help states strengthen their programs, in particular to prevent future oil and gas well abandonments.Under the program, states were eligible for two types of Regulatory Improvement Grants--

• -- Plugging Standards Grants: Intended to incentivize states to implement standards and procedures designed to ensure that wells located in the state are plugged in an effective manner that protects groundwater and other natural resources, public health and safety, and the environment.
• -- Program Improvement Grants: Intended to incentivize states to implement other improvements to state programs designed to reduce future orphaned well burdens, such as financial assurance reform, alternative funding mechanisms for orphaned well programs, and reforms to programs relating to well transfer or temporary abandonment.

Final guidance on the federal program was just issued on January 15, 2025. Kris Shiffer, Director of DEP’s Bureau of Oil and Gas Planning, Program Management, said, "We did get word, I think within the last month, currently, right now DOI has withdrawn Regulatory Improvement Grant guidance and is not accepting Regulatory Improvement Grant applications pending further review of that program."He said the Regulatory Improvement Grant Program "deals with two $20 million grant opportunities where we strengthen our plugging program as well as our oversight from a regulatory perspective, whether it be policy changes, SOP [operating procedure] changes, rulemaking changes, legislative changes that we help to improve the program.""So we'll wait to see if that opens up or if there's any changes to be made associated with that one," added Shiffer.“So regardless of the money on the table so to speak, as part of that grant opportunity, there's always improvements that we're trying to make and look at in terms of doing, whether it be, speaking with the legislators, whether it'd be speaking with the Governor's Office, whether it be speaking with the industry members, whether it be with the different work groups that we have going on,” said Shiffer. “There's always improvements that we always want to make as a program. I'm a big believer in trying to say, Pennsylvania has the number one program across the nation. We're leading the way in terms of other states looking for us for opportunities and ideas, and I firmly believe that,” said Shiffer.Kurt Klapkowski, DEP Deputy Secretary for Oil and Gas Management, added, “I think we've got a lot of room to make administrative changes, things that wouldn't necessarily require regulations or statutory changes, although we would certainly be interested in those types of changes if it seemed like that was the best approach to get to those places. “But the idea of cutting off the future abandonment, improper abandonment of wells so that we're not ever sort of handing this off to the taxpayer as now it's your problem kind of a thing.“And that can take a lot of different forms. That can be how we look at permit transfers. “That could be how we do enforcement and oversight of abandonment, how do we do oversight and enforcement of our reporting requirements? “And in Kris's bureau, we've created a new compliance section in our data management and compliance division that's really taking a hard look at those issues across the state.”Continuing Conventional Well Abandonment ProblemIn 2024, DEP issued 860 new or continued violations to conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells.In 2023, DEP issued 512 violations to conventional well owners for abandonment.So far in 2025, DEP issued 96 violations to 36 conventional oil and gas well owners for abandoning their wells. Read more here.Growing Shale Gas Well AbandonmentsIn 2024, 47 violations were issued or continued to 12 shale gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells. In 2023, DEP issued or continued 20 violations to 10 shale gas well owners for abandoning and not plugging their wells. Read more here.So far in 2025, DEP issued 39 violations to 10 shale gas drilling companies for abandoning and not plugging their well, most drilled in the early days of shale gas development in Pennsylvania-- 2009 to 2013. Read more here. In September 2021, environmental groups submitted rulemaking petitions to the Environmental Quality Board to increase well plugging bonding amounts for conventional and unconventional shale gas wells to what it costs taxpayers to plug oil and gas wells abandoned by their owners. Read more here.In response, the General Assembly passed and Gov. Wolf signed into law legislation in July 2022 that took away the EQB’s authority to increase bond amounts for conventional oil and gas wells for 10 years. Read more here.DEP has yet to report to the Environmental Quality Board on whether it recommends the Board accept the rulemaking petition increasing bonding amounts for shale gas wells.DEP has been trying to get the conventional oil and gas industry interested in other concepts to handle their well plugging financial responsibilities.In October 2023, DEP and One Nexus presented the concept of a “life insurance” policy for covering well plugging liability to conventional well owners at DCED’s PA Grade Crude [Oil] Development Advisory Council, but the industry would have none of it. Read more here.In November 2021, the Post-Gazette reported DEP records show the agency has less than $15 per well available to plug the over 100,500 active conventional oil and gas wells that now have permits because of woefully inadequate well plugging bonding requirements. Read more here.Conventional oil and gas wells drilled before April 18, 1985, which is most of them, cannot be required to have any well plugging bond by law.

22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 17 – 23 -- Marcellus Drilling News --For the week of Mar 17 – 23, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells dropped by nine from the previous week. Last week, 22 new permits were issued, with 16 going to the Keystone State (PA). PennEnergy Resources took the lion’s share with 11 permits for a single pad in Butler County. PA General Energy received four permits for a single pad in Lycoming County. Range Resources got one new permit in Washington County. ASCENT RESOURCES | BUTLER COUNTY | CNX RESOURCES | ENERGY COMPANIES | EOG RESOURCES | HARRISON COUNTY | LYCOMING COUNTY | MONONGALIA COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ENERGY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | WASHINGTON COUNTY

Antero Resources Continues as WV’s Largest Producer with 3.4 Bcfe/d - Marcellus Drilling News -- Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease and the largest M-U driller and producer in West Virginia, shoots to produce 3.4 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d) of natural gas in the Mountain State. The company recently reported net production averaging 3.43 Bcfe/d in 4Q24, up ever so slightly from 3.42 Bcfe/d in 4Q23 (see Antero to Drill 50-55 New Wells, Spend $100M on New Leases in 2025). From the quarterly update, we learned that Antero plans to drill 50-55 new wells and complete 60-65 wells this year. Those numbers were recently reaffirmed in an interview with Antero VP Conrad Baston by WV News. Bringing 60 wells online annually keeps production humming along in the 3.4 Bcfe/d range. Read More

Hope Gas Ending “Farm Taps” May Impact Conventional Wells, Too -- Hope Gas, a large local utility company that provides gas service to more than 131,000 residential, industrial, and commercial customers in thirty-seven West Virginia counties, filed a rate case with the state Public Service Commission (PSC) in August 2024 looking to convert customers who use a “farm tap” gas system to either propane fuel or electric heat for their homes (see WV’s Hope Gas Seeks to End “Farm Taps” for 600 Customers). The change would affect around 600 customers, removing them from the ability to use local natural gas. Conventional drillers now say they may be affected too, with no one to sell their local gas to and a lack of pipelines to connect their production to other markets.

WV Supremes Rule Lower Court Erred in New Trial re Injection Well --Marcellus Drilling News --Here’s an interesting lawsuit that never appeared on our radar. It involves a lease in Fayette County, West Virginia, and the right to establish an injection well in an old conventional well on the leased property. The party leasing and using the old injection well, Webb Construction, was later sued by the party leasing out the property, North Hills Group, after new board members over at North Hills. The lawsuit accused Webb of improperly using the old well as an injection well without first trying to see if the well could be rejuvenated as a productive gas well and building a pipeline to the well that leaked wastewater on North Hill’s property. A Fayette Circuit Court jury in 2022 found in favor of Webb and against North Hills, dismissing all claims against Webb. North Hills asked the judge to grant a new trial to overturn the jury verdict, which the judge did. North Hills won in the new trial. Read More

EQT CEO Tells West Virginia: It’s Time to Build More Pipelines -Marcellus Drilling News -Toby Rice, CEO of EQT Corporation, took part in a presentation by natural gas industry leaders at the West Virginia Capitol on Wednesday. The group was briefly joined by Gov. Patrick Morrisey, who was there to promote an expansion of electric microgrids in the state to power data centers. Morrisey is pushing legislature, House Bill 2014, to do just that (see WV Gov. Backs Energy Bill to Attract Data Centers, Use Coal & Gas). Rice told those at the rally that if the state is serious about building more gas-fired power, it’s going to need new pipelines

MVP Case Against Radicalized Protesters Advances in Federal Court - On Monday, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Virginia (Roanoke Division) ruled in two of five cases before it in which Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which is now majority-owned by EQT Corporation, sued radical protesters who blocked the construction of the pipeline in Roanoke County, Virginia. The court dismissed one count in the two cases (count #4) against the protesters, which the media focused on. The media doesn’t want to talk about the fact that there are five other counts, far more serious than the dismissed count, that the court is allowing to advance. These protesters are in a world of legal hurt over their illegal blocking of MVP construction.

Why Democrats joined Trump’s pipeline push - A once-dormant debate over natural gas pipelines in the Northeast is back — courtesy of President Donald Trump.The idea of building pipelines roiled the region a decade ago. The controversy all but disappeared amid political opposition, as officials in New York and other states ramped up climate targets and rejected permits for planned pipeline projects.Then, Trump returned to office and revived the debate in a social media post.“Every other State in New England, plus Connecticut, wants this, in order to help the Environment, and save BIG money,” he wrote this month on Truth Social, his social media platform.Energy Secretary Chris Wright chimed in with his own prediction that construction could begin this year on a pipeline into New York.Analysts doubt it would happen so soon. But there are key differences between the debate now and the last time pipelines were a high-profile issue in the Northeast, including indications that Democrats might support them.In Massachusetts, Gov. Maura Healey, a Democrat who fought a major pipeline project as attorney general, is under pressure to address skyrocketing heating bills after a cold winter.In Connecticut, Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, signaled that he’s open to new pipelines in his State of the State address and by telling a local media outlet that natural gas could be an area of compromise with Trump. And in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul, another Democrat, green-lighted the expansion of a pipeline in February that would increase the flow of gas into the state.The moves reflect the realities facing state leaders who are trying to find a way to meet their climate goals even as they combat some of the highest energy prices in the country, said Marc Montalvo, the CEO of Daymark Energy Advisors, a Massachusetts-based consulting firm. “I think that there is a certain kind of pragmatism that is trying to eat its way in,” he said. “I don’t know ultimately where that will go.” The revival comes at a critical moment in the Northeast. The region banked heavily on offshore wind and increased hydropower from Quebec to slash climate pollution and limit its exposure to spikes in natural gas prices.But those initial clean energy projects are only now nearing the finish line after years of regulatory reviews, legal battles and, in the case of one high-profile offshore wind project, a major construction accident in which a huge blade crashed into the ocean. The prospect of future projects, meanwhile, have been clouded by Trump’s trade war with Canada and his opposition to offshore wind. The result is a region that remains more reliant than ever on natural gas, but with limited pipeline capacity to meet its power and heating needs. Gas accounts for roughly half the power generation in New England and New York. It’s also the top heating source in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York, according to theU.S. Energy Information Administration.The gas industry and conservative activists have long argued that the best way to reduce costs is to increase pipeline capacity between gas-rich Pennsylvania and its neighbors to the Northeast. Project 2025, the conservative policy blueprint, calls for changes to the Clean Water Act, which was used by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, to block pipelines in 2016 and 2020. A poll commissioned by a foundation aligned with a conservative group in Massachusetts found that 47 percent of Bay State respondents supported new pipeline construction, compared to 37 percent who opposed it. A new study supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently concluded that expanding pipeline capacity would lower natural gas prices by 27 percent in Boston and 17 percent in New York.“Truly, when you get into the Northeast, the states’ ability to block pipelines has been pretty chronic, particularly in the New York City market,” Alan Armstrong, chief executive of Williams Cos., told Bloomberg. “I would say that I think what’s going to fix that is people being really upset about their utility bills.”Williams, a major energy infrastructure company with a focus on gas, proposed building two pipelines — the Northeast Supply Enhancement and the Constitution pipeline — that were rejected by Cuomo. Kinder Morgan, another energy company, proposed building the Northeast Energy Direct pipeline through Massachusetts and New Hampshire before pulling the plan in the face of widespread opposition in 2016. Environmentalists say those arguments ignore the economic and environmental costs of building gas infrastructure. Connecticut preemptively ended a campaign to expand local gas distribution lines in 2022 due to the financial and environmental costs, while high gas bills in Massachusetts this winter owe in part to costs stemming from fixing and maintaining old distribution pipes, they say. In 2018, leaky distribution pipes led to a series of gas explosions in Massachusetts that killed one person, injured dozens more and damaged more than 100 buildings. The Acadia Center, an environmental group, estimates that natural gas transmission capacity into New England has increased 40 percent since 2014. But those expansion projects have failed to provide consumers with financial relief, said Jamie Dickerson, the group’s senior director for the climate and clean energy program. “If the concern is the rising cost of folks’ gas bills — which, obviously, it rightly is — I think the logical step is to get off gas and diversify your energy supply and not to double down more on the fuel that’s been sort of driving bills up this winter,” Dickerson said. New York and New England states were able to achieve deep emission cuts in the early 2000s by phasing out old coal, oil and natural-gas-fired power plants. But power plant emissions have steadily climbed in recent years as the region has run out of coal plants to retire and as clean energy projects have been delayed. Gas stepped in to fill the void. New England power plants released 27 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2024, the highest level since 2016, according to EPA data. (The lowest was 22 million tons in 2019.) New York has seen its power sector emissions rise from 24 million tons in 2019 to 31 million tons last year.Gas is the primary reason for higher emissions. Gas plant climate pollution in New York grew from 23 million tons in 2019 to nearly 31 million tons last year, EPA data shows. In New England, gas emissions grew from 20 million tons to 25 million tons over that period. Oil plant emissions, by contrast, were down 515,000 tons in New York and up 151,000 tons in New England over that time. “The idea that we would go backwards on our climate goals, put in more polluting gas plants and further expand our reliance on gas heating is just completely backwards,” said Shannon Laun, vice president of the Conservation Law Foundation’s Connecticut chapter.

Venture Global Starts Regulatory Process for Third Phase at Plaquemines Project — Venture Global LNG Inc. has started the pre-filing process at FERC for the third phase of its Plaquemines LNG facility after announcing the expansion plans earlier this month. The company is in the process of commissioning the first phase. It is in the process of installing trains for the second phase, which is expected to be up and running next year. A third phase would add 18.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) of capacity to the facility in Louisiana, boosting its output above 45 Mt/y. The company told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in its pre-filing request that it could file a formal application for project authorization by September, which would put it on track for approval by September 2026. The expansion would include 24 smaller modular liquefaction trains, a marine berth and a gas-fired power plant. Management expects to make a final investment decision after its proposed CP2 LNG facility in Louisiana enters commercial service, which is expected in mid-2027.

Feds approve offshore gas terminal under orders from Trump - Department of Transportation officials have awarded a license to an offshore natural gas export facility, reversing themselves under orders from President Donald Trump.DOT’s Maritime Administration, or MARAD, last year denied Delfin LNG a license for its floating export terminal off the coast of Louisiana, saying it was too different than the project it had given preliminary approval years before.But the “Unleashing American Energy” order Trump signed on the first day of his term had arcane language tucked into it ordering MARAD to take another look at the project, and explicit instructions on what not to look at. MARAD’s brief statement announcing the reversal did not offer any reasons except to say that it “is being issued in accordance with President Trump’s Executive Order” on energy.

Delfin LNG Agrees to Supply Germany’s SEFE Following Key Permitting Decision - Germany’s state-owned LNG trading firm has signed on as a tentative customer for Delfin LNG LLC’s offshore export project in the wake of its approval by the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD). Map showing Delfin LNG project. Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE) disclosed a heads of agreement for 1.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) from Delfin LNG for 15 years starting in 2027. Designed to consist of up to 3 floating LNG units connected to existing onshore pipeline infrastructure through a deepwater port 50 miles south of the Louisiana coast, Delfin LNG could add 13 Mt/y of export capacity. Related Tags

US natgas prices slide 2% to 3-week low on record output, mild weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a three-week low on Monday on record output and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.6 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $3.914 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since February 28. Lower gas demand expected in coming weeks should allow utilities to keep adding fuel to storage this month. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March from a record 105.1 bcfd in February. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 8. With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 107.9 bcfd this week to 104.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana enter service. Gas traded around $13 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. In Canada, meanwhile, the Maran Gas Roxana LNG vessel was heading for the 1.8-bcfd LNG Canada export plant under construction in British Columbia to deliver cargo from Australia to cool down the plant as part of its commercialization. Once LNG Canada enters service, likely in mid-2025, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. will likely decline as Canadian energy firms have another outlet for their fuel and start selling more to other countries, traders have said. For now, the U.S. is the only outlet for Canadian gas. Canada exported about 8.6 bcfd of gas via pipelines to the U.S. in 2024, up from 8.0 bcfd in 2023 and an average of 7.5 bcfd over the prior five years (2018-2022), according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. That compares with a record 10.4 bcfd in 2002.

Gas Prices Edge Up on Strong LNG Demand, Waha Prices Fall Below Zero Again | Pipeline and Gas Journal - (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and raised demand forecasts for the next two weeks, with price gains capped by record output and forecasts for mild weather through mid-April. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $3.861 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since February 28 for a second day in a row. Futures for May, which will soon be the front-month, were trading down about 1% at around $3.86 per MMBtu. Despite forecasts for more demand, traders noted that mild weather should allow utilities to keep adding fuel to storage. Some analysts said gas stockpiles were on track to increase in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history. Gas stockpiles remained about 7% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative for the second time this month due to pipeline maintenance that trapped gas associated with oil production in the basin. With Permian oil production hitting record highs every year since at least 2016, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, energy firms have had a hard time building gas pipes fast enough to keep up with soaring associated gas output. Permian gas production has also hit record highs every year since at least 2018. Pipeline constraints have caused next-day Waha prices to turn negative a record 49 times in 2024. Waha prices averaged below zero 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023.

US natgas prices climb 2% on decline in daily output, record LNG flows (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on a decline in daily output, record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.9 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $3.950 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Sign up here. Futures for May , which will soon be the front-month, were trading up about 1.5% to around $3.93 per mmBtu. Prices rose despite a report showing last week's storage build was bigger than expected and forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 37 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended March 21. That was bigger than the 25-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 30 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 31 bcf for this time of year. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in March from a record 105.1 bcfd in February. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop 2.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary one-month low of 104.9 bcfd on Thursday. Traders noted preliminary data was often changed later in the day. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 11. With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 108.8 bcfd this week to 103.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while the forecast for next week was lower. Gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's (VG.N), opens new tab 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana entered service.

US natgas prices climb 3% on record LNG flows, lower daily output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Friday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a decline in daily output. On its first day as the front month, gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.5 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $4.065 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 19. Sign up here. For the week, the contract was up about 2% after sliding about 3% in the prior week. Mild weather and low demand through mid-April should allow utilities to keep adding gas to storage in coming weeks with some analysts saying stockpiles were on track to increase in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history. Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 5% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Mild weather and ample hydropower in the U.S. West caused spot power prices at the South Path 15 (SP-15) hub in Southern California to turn negative for the first time since June 2024. Power prices at SP-15 first fell into negative territory in 2024, averaging below zero on 18 days last year, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2001. Next-day prices at SP-15 fell to minus $5.23 per megawatt hour. That compares with an average of $28.05 so far in 2025, $31.30 in 2024 and an average of $58.87 during the prior five years (2019-2023). At the Mid-Columbia hub in Oregon, meanwhile, next-day power prices dropped to $6.57 per MWh, their lowest since May 2023. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in March from a record 105.1 bcfd in February. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.2 bcfd on Friday. Traders noted preliminary data was often changed later in the day. Gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's (VG.N), opens new tab 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana entered service. Gas traded around $13 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

Judge Rules Against Sale of Gulf of Mexico Oil Drilling Rights -- A federal district judge on Thursday ruled against a Biden administration sale of oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico, faulting the government with failing to sufficiently analyze its possible effects on the climate and endangered whales. However, US District Judge Amit P. Mehta in Washington left open the question of what to do about the two-year-old sale, instead directing additional arguments on the best remedy. Options could include invalidating leases sold in the auction or ordering those contracts be revised to include more limitations. The sale, which Congress mandated as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, made 13,600 blocks spanning approximately 73.3 million acres available. Ultimately, 32 companies, including Chevron USA, Inc., participated in that March 29, 2023 auction, paying the government $250.6 million for 299 leases. But Mehta said the Interior Department violated the National Environmental Policy Act by insufficiently analyzing the auction. Among the problems, Mehta found, was that Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management didn’t fully consider potential energy market changes in its analysis of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from activity on new oil and gas leases. Mehta also said the bureau had made a “glaring omission” in not incorporating another agency’s assessment about the habitat and location of the endangered Rice’s whale. The bureau focused its impact analysis on the species’ core habitat, even though there was “credible evidence” it could be persistently found outside the area, the judge said. Although the Inflation Reduction Act required the sale, Mehta emphasized that the Interior Department still retained discretion to set terms and impose limits on available acreage. The challenge was brought by six environmental organizations. George Torgun, an a lawyer with Earthjustice, called the ruling “a welcome moment of justice for the Gulf ecosystem and frontline communities who have been burdened by fossil fuel development in the region for decades.” The Interior Department, which is expected to open new oil and gas leasing opportunities under President Donald Trump, said in an emailed statement its policy was not to comment on litigation. Nevertheless, according to the statement, the Interior Department maintains an “unwavering commitment to conserving and managing the nation’s natural and cultural resources, upholding tribal trust responsibilities and overseeing public lands and waters for the benefit of all Americans, while prioritizing fiscal responsibility for the American people.”

E&Ps Flag 'Uncertainty' in Latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey -- “Uncertainty” was highlighted several times by exploration and production companies in the ‘comments’ section of the first quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released this week. “The key word to describe 2025 so far is ‘uncertainty’, and, as a public company, our investors hate uncertainty,” one exploration and production company noted in an exploration and production firm segment of the comments section, which the survey outlined showed comments from respondents’ completed surveys that had been edited for publication. “This has led to a marked increase in the implied cost of capital of our business, with public energy stocks down significantly more than oil prices over the last two months,” the company added. “This uncertainty is being caused by the conflicting messages coming from the new administration,” it continued. The company went on to state that “there cannot be ‘U.S. energy dominance’ and $50 per barrel oil”. “Those two statements are contradictory. At $50 per barrel oil, we will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly (one million barrels per day plus within a couple quarters),” the company added. “This is not ‘energy dominance’. The U.S. oil cost curve is in a different place than it was five years ago; $70 per barrel is the new $50 per barrel,” it went on to note. Another exploration and production company stated in the comments section that “trade and tariff uncertainty are making planning difficult”. A separate exploration and production firm noted that “the administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets”. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability,” that company added. One more exploration and production company representative said, “I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus year career”. Another exploration and production business noted in the comments section, “uncertainty around everything has sharply risen during the past quarter”. “Oil prices feel incredibly unstable, and it’s hard to gauge whether prices will be in the $50s per barrel or $70s per barrel. Combined, our ability to plan operations for any meaningful amount of time in the future has been severely diminished,” that company added. A separate business stated, “the only certainty right now is uncertainty”. “With that in mind, we are approaching this economic cycle with heightened capital discipline and a focus on long-term resilience”, that company added. Another exploration and production firm warned in the comments section that “the political climate caused by the new presidential administration appears to be creating instability”. One more business said in the comments section that “global geopolitical unrest and the uncertain economic outcomes of the administration’s tariff policies suggest the need to hit the pause button on spending”. Rigzone has contacted the White House, the Trump transition team, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for comment on the exploration and production firm segment of the comments section in the first quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone. In his inaugural address on January 20, which is transcribed on the White House website, U.S. President Donald J. Trump said, “we will drill, baby, drill”. In an executive order issued on the same day, which was also posted on the White House website, Trump stated that “it is … in the national interest to unleash America’s affordable and reliable energy and natural resources”. That executive order issued directives focusing on “unleashing energy dominance through efficient permitting”. The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the Dallas Fed Energy Survey states.

Shell’s Near-Term Growth Strategy Centered on Natural Gas, Especially LNG, CEO Says --Shell plc is targeting an increase of up to 5% in LNG sales over the next five years as estimates show global demand to jump nearly 60% by 2040, CEO Wael Sawan said Tuesday. Graph showing Shell's global energy mix by 2030 versus 2023. During its capital markets day in New York City on Tuesday, Sawan and the executive team laid out the near-term strategy for the London-based supermajor. Plans would boost annual production growth overall by 1%, with oil output remaining flat at around 1.4 million b/d.

Market Sees Agua Dulce Basis Differential Closing in Years Ahead as Exports Grow -The Agua Dulce natural gas pricing point in southern Texas is gaining ground on Henry Hub as it takes the shape of an export pricing location. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Agua Dulce daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility versus South Texas natural gas exports to Mexico. Agua Dulce is a major trading hub for Mexico. Some 7.5 Bcf/d flows through the Agua Dulce’s inbound and outbound pipes, according to RBN Energy LLC. Kinder Morgan Inc.’s 2.2 Bcf/d NET Mexico pipeline flows out of the hub and connects with the Los Ramones system in Mexico. The Valley Crossing Pipeline LLC header system also moves south and supplies the 2.6 Bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan offshore pipeline, which moves gas into eastern and central Mexico.

Rubio Warns Venezuela Against Attacking Guyana, Exxon -- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Venezuela that any attempt to invade Guyana or threaten Exxon Mobil Corp.’s operations in the country would be a “very bad move.” Rubio spoke less than a month after a Venezuelan patrol ship entered Guyanese waters and positioned itself near a vessel contracted by Exxon, which is operating the world’s fastest-growing major oil field off the coast of the South American country. “It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were to attack Guyana or attack Exxon Mobil,” Rubio said in the capital city of Georgetown on Thursday. “Suffice it to say that if that regime were to do something such as that, it would be a very bad move. It would be a big mistake. For them.”Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro reopened a border dispute more than a century after it was settled by international arbitration as he sought to galvanize supporters for last year’s presidential election. Maduro’s military and naval arsenal dwarfs Guyana’s, which was one of the continent’s poorest countries prior to Exxon’s 2015 discovery of oil. Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali has been successful in rallying the international community behind the country’s dispute with Venezuela, with the UK, France and the US pledging support. “We have a big Navy,” Rubio said. “It can get anywhere in the world.” Rubio also said the US would bolster ties with Guyana, without getting into specifics. “We have commitments that exist today with Guyana,” he said. “We want to build on those, expand on those.” Rubio also was scheduled to visit Suriname, which has sought to encourage oil exploration in offshore territory close to the Guyanese discoveries.

Suncor finds source of spill at Sarnia refinery – (Reuters) -Canada’s Suncor Energy said on Thursday it had identified and isolated the source of a hydrocarbon spill observed during regular monitoring at its 85,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Sarnia, Ontario. Suncor added that no injuries have been reported due to the incident. It did not specify whether the spill was of crude oil or fuel. The company said earlier it was responding to an incident involving the St. Clair River near the refinery, noting that community members may notice an odor. In another community alert, St. Clair Township reported a crude oil spill into the St. Clair River, which was being captured by booms deployed by Suncor and Shell. “St. Clair Township Water Distribution System is Safe to Drink. The spill is in the St. Clair River and has no impact on the Township drinking water,” St. Clair Township said. Workers from Shell Canada’s Sarnia Manufacturing Center in Corunna, a community in St. Clair, are providing mutual aid, Shell said in another community notification earlier in the day. “We are providing Shell emergency response equipment and personnel to assist.” Suncor was not immediately available for further comment.

Rupture of Ecuador SOTE pipeline spilled 25,116 barrels of oil (Reuters) - The rupture of Ecuador's SOTE crude pipeline earlier this month spilled over 25,000 barrels of oil, the country's national disaster management agency said in a statement, affecting three rivers, wildlife and at least 5,300 people. Petroecuador confirmed the spill magnitude in a separate statement on Tuesday and said that it collected 30,257 barrels of crude oil mixed with water, prior to a separation process. The rupture, which was caused by a landslide and shut the pipeline for six days, forced state oil company Petroecuador to declare force majeure. The company has resumed exports of Oriente crude but has not lifted the declaration. "EP PETROECUADOR reported that containment dikes and barriers were implemented in the Viche area and said 25,116 barrels were spilled over 80 km of affected areas," the National Secretariat for Risk Management detailed in a report published on its website Monday night. The spill affected three rivers, nine beaches and at least 294 hectares of agricultural land in the coastal province of Esmeraldas, according to the report. Petroecuador said it has allocated $4 million for contingency measures while it is maintaining ground monitoring and conducting overflights in the affected areas, doing beach cleanups and delivering provisions to the affected families.

Trade Tensions Outweigh Supply Risks as Global Natural Gas, LNG Prices Cool — LNG Recap - Global natural gas prices continued to trend downward Monday as traders honed in on the possible impacts of escalating trade wars and a tentative end to conflict in Ukraine. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. Fresh news about increasing tensions between the United States and China, as well as retaliatory tariffs from other trading partners, tamped down natural gas benchmarks that had previously risen the week before. On Friday, Ukrainian and Russian shelling campaigns near key gas infrastructure for Western Europe sparked a jump in the prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract. However, by Monday morning, profit-taking and geopolitical speculation halted momentum, analysts with trading firm Energi Danmark wrote in a recent note.

Europe’s Largest Natural Gas Users See LNG Keeping Market Dominance Over Russian Supplies -As reports of a ceasefire in Ukraine cool global natural gas prices, Europe’s largest chemical manufacturers are largely betting on LNG – not Russian gas – to continue governing the market. Bar chart showing European Union LNG imports by country of origin. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) has been on a seesaw since mid-winter, with the European Union’s (EU) storage levels dragging prices up and geopolitical news creating volatility. Reports that the Trump administration could be brokering an end to the war in Ukraine have helped fuel speculation that Russian gas supplies could return to the continent, lowering prices and perceived supply risks. However, BASF SE CFO Dirk Elvermann said the world’s largest chemicals producer is not expecting a return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe. It is instead continuing to invest in diversifying its gas supply.

TotalEnergies CEO Not Ruling Out Return Of Nord Stream Gas Pipelines --The mothballed Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany may return to service at some point as Europe’s industry would need some Russian gas to stay competitive, TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said on Wednesday.“I would not be surprised if two out of the four (came) back to stream, not four out of the four,” Patrick Pouyanne said at an industry event in Germany’s capital city, Berlin, as carried by Reuters.“There is no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever it is,” the executive added.Gas leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea were discovered at the end of September 2022.Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation after Germany axed the certification process following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia, for its part, shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely in early September of 2022, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines because of the Western sanctions.But speculation has intensified in recent weeks that a revival of the pipelines could be a part of a deal for the end of the war in Ukraine.Earlier this month, Germany’s outgoing economy and energy minister Robert Habeck said that ideas to resurrect the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany are the “wrong direction of discussion”.“The Ukrainians are still under the aggression of Russia. So I think talking about the potential of Nord Stream 2 or Nord Stream 1, if it's going to be repaired, is completely the wrong direction of discussion,” Habeck said.In response to reports about a resurrection of the pipelines, Germany’s Economy Ministry early this month said that it is neither willing nor planning to discuss a restart to the pipeline.

BP finalizes deal with Iraq to develop 4 oil fields in Kirkuk - – An important deal between the Iraqi Ministry of Oil and British Petroleum (BP) was signed on Wednesday under the auspices of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. The deal covers the development of four strategic oil fields in the northern Iraqi province of Kirkuk. According to a statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the four oil fields are Baba and Avana domes, Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz. In addition to several Iraqi officials, the ceremony held to sign the deal was attended by the Iraqi Minister of Oil, Hayan Abdul-Ghani, and BP’s Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss. As part of Iraq’s objectives to become gas self-sufficient in three years and boost oil output to eight million barrels per day, the deal is anticipated to increase the country’s production capacity by about 150,000 barrels per day, according to Attaqa News. Sources revealed in early February that BP might spend up to $25 billion over the course of the project, according to Reuters. BP will contribute between $20 billion and $25 billion under a profit-sharing arrangement that would last more than 25 years, according to the source. Following a roughly $27 billion deal with TotalEnergies in Basra, BP’s deal would be the second significant agreement between Iraq and a foreign oil corporation in many years. The deal represents an important part of the Iraqi government’s endeavor to optimize energy sector investments and increase the country’s oil output and curb gas flaring. In December 2024, BP accepted the technical criteria for the development of the Kirkuk oil fields, followed by an agreement on the contract terms, which was announced on February 25, 2025. The mega-project in northern Iraq will include plans to recover flared gas to boost the country’s electricity production. In late November, the state-owned North Oil Company (NOC) disclosed that BP representatives had met with officials in Kirkuk in an attempt to finalize a deal to start oil field development in the area. Auchincloss stated earlier that BP wants to reach an agreement in the coming months to develop Iraq’s massive Kirkuk oil reserves. According to Energy Intelligence, Auchincloss expressed his excitement about the prospect in a statement and indicated that he hopes to sign a formal agreement by the end of February. Auchincloss added that the Iraqi government offers very competitive conditions on the global market and is open to collaboration. Additionally, BP suggests investigating possible investments in local electricity generation and solar power facilities. BP is also the primary contractor at the massive Rumaila oil field in the southern Iraqi governorate of Basra, which generates about one-third of the country’s crude oil.

Gazprom gas output drops after Ukraine blocks export route to Europe - report - While Gazprom is unable to export its production via Ukraine, warm weather and slowing industrial demand have weighed on output from other Russian producers

India Turns Away Russian Oil Tanker As Sanctions Evolve – India moved on Thursday to deny entry to a Tanzanian-flagged tanker carrying Russian crude, signaling that New Delhi is ramping up scrutiny of vessels transporting oil from Russia, Reuters reported exclusively. The vessel, Andaman Skies, was en route to the Vadinar Port to deliver 100,000 metric tons (roughly 800,000 barrels) of Varandey crude oil sold by Russia’s Lukoil. Indian port authorities refused the tanker entry, citing documentation issues, particularly its seaworthiness certification,Reuters quoted unnamed sources familiar with the matter as saying. The Andaman Skies, built in 2004, is more than 20 years old and, according to Indian port regulations, requires a seaworthiness certificate from an approved classification society. While the vessel held certification from Dakar Class, an organization based in India, it is not recognized by the country’s maritime administration. Entry was refused despite the fact that the same vessel entered Indian ports as recently as December 2024.India has become the largest importer of Russian crude, with Russian oil comprising roughly 35% of its total crude imports last year. However, the country has faced increasing pressure due to U.S. and European sanctions targeting Russian oil exports, which have disrupted global shipping routes. The sanctions environment continues to evolve, and the uncertainty of the Trump administration appears to have pushed India to pay closer attention to the oil that is entering its ports. The Andaman Skies is not subject to U.S. or UN sanctions but is listed under UK and EU sanctions.The tightening regulations reflect a broader trend where Indian refiners, who buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, now rely on ships and insurers that are not sanctioned by the U.S., further complicating the flow of crude. Sources told Reuters that Lukoil and Russian insurer Soglasie did not immediately respond to inquiries, while Indian authorities declined to comment on the matter.Evolving sanctions have benefitted the U.S., with U.S. oil exports to India in February hitting their highest volumes in more than two years, jumping from 221,000 bpd in 2024 to 357,000 bpd in February, based on Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iraq possesses over 145 billion barrels of proven oil reserves - Iraqi News – The State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) revealed on Wednesday that Iraq has the fourth-largest proven oil reserves in the world, with around 145 billion barrels. Iraq ranks second in OPEC oil production and has one of the largest oil and gas resources in the world. Its natural gas reserves, which are currently valued at $514 billion, reach 132 trillion cubic feet, while its proven oil reserves are estimated to be worth $10.6 trillion. Iraq’s oil exports in 2024 totaled almost $99 billion, demonstrating the sector’s significance to the country’s economy. The Iraqi government intends to boost its oil output from the current four million barrels per day to six million barrels per day by 2029. To reach this goal, the country is establishing several projects in different Iraqi provinces. Foreign oil companies have made significant investments in Iraq. Britain’s British Petroleum (BP) is spending $25 billion on oil field development projects, whereas France-based TotalEnergies has committed $27 billion to multiple energy projects. Chinese corporations have also made significant investments, most notably Sinopec, CNOOC, and PetroChina. Iraq has also welcomed American businesses in an effort to boost its capacity to become self-sufficient in electricity through these investments. Along with electrical interconnections with neighboring countries, Iraq has also started to implement renewable energy projects.

Oil prices decline as investors weigh Russia-Ukraine talks, US tariff concerns - Oil prices edged lower on Monday as investors evaluated the impact of US-led efforts to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, alongside growing economic concerns tied to upcoming US tariffs. By 11:40 a.m. local time (0840 GMT), Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, slipped 0.36% to $71.46 per barrel, down from its previous close of $71.72. Meanwhile, the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), declined 0.37% to $68 per barrel from $68.25. Traders are keeping a close watch on US-mediated peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as a breakthrough could lead to increased Russian oil exports. Meanwhile, a US delegation is engaging with Russian and Ukrainian officials to push for a Black Sea ceasefire. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov described discussions with a US delegation in Saudi Arabia as "productive," highlighting energy-related talks, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on Sunday in a post on X. He reaffirmed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's commitment to achieving a "just and lasting peace" for Ukraine. The talk took place ahead of planned US-Russia discussions on a possible ceasefire, though continued attacks cast doubt on any immediate progress. Meanwhile, concerns over global trade persist as the US prepares to introduce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, aligning its trade policies with other nations and adding to market uncertainty.

25% Tariffs on Countries that Buy Oil and Gas From Venezuela -- The oil market continued to trend higher on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose 25% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela. This followed last week’s announcement of new sanctions imposed on Iranian oil exports. The equities market also rallied on Monday on signs the Trump administration is taking a measured approach on tariffs against its trading partners. Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is likely to exclude a set of sector specific tariffs when it imposes reciprocal tariff measures on April 2nd. The crude market posted a low of $67.95 in overnight trading as the market weighed new U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports against talks to end the war in Ukraine. The market retraced more than 50% of its move from a high of $73.17 to a low of $64.85 as it rallied to a high of $69.33 by mid-day on the tariff news. However, the market erased some of its gains on news that OPEC+ will likely proceed with a planned oil output increase in May. The May WTI contract settled up 83 cents at $69.11 and the May Brent contract settled up 84 cents at $73.00. The product stocks ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 75 points at $2.2571 and the RB market settling up 1.12 cents at $2.2066. U.S. President Donald Trump said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on trades made with the United States, citing migration and criminal gang members in the U.S. He said this “secondary tariff” will take effect on April 2nd. China is the largest buyer of Venezuela’s oil. The U.S. Treasury Department said the U.S. gave Chevron until May 27th to wind down its oil operations and exports from Venezuela. Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is likely to exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on April 2nd. According to an administration official, the White House was still planning to unveil reciprocal tariff measures on that day, although planning remains fluid. Later on Monday, President Donald Trump said he will in the very near future announce tariffs on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals. He also stated that he may give a “lot of countries” breaks on tariffs and that he plans to announce more tariffs on automobiles in the next few days. U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday aimed at sealing a Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal before a wider ceasefire. The talks follow U.S. negotiations with Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Sunday. A source briefed on the planning for the talks said the U.S. side was being led by Andrew Peek, a senior director at the White House National Security Council, and Michael Anton, a senior State Department official. The White House says the aim of the talks is to reach a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, allowing the free flow of shipping, though the area has not been the location of intense military operations in recent months. The Kremlin said the talks will be “mainly to study the prospects for the possible implementation of a well-known initiative related to the safety of navigation in the Black Sea.” IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.6 million bpd of capacity in the week ending March 28th, cutting available refining capacity by 216,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.5 million bpd in the week ending April 4th.

Oil rises 1% as Trump plans tariff on countries that buy Venezuelan oil, gas (Reuters) - Oil prices gained 1% on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose a 25% tariff on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela. Price gains were capped, however, as the U.S. gave oil producer Chevron until May 27 to wind down its oil operations and exports from Venezuela. Trump had initially given Chevron 30 days from March 4 to wind down that license. The two moves taken together alleviate some pressure on Chevron while putting more pressure on other consumers of Venezuelan oil, though it is uncertain how the Trump administration will enforce the tariff. Brent crude futures rose 84 cents, or 1.2%, to $73 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 83 cents, or 1.2%, at $69.11. Also keeping a ceiling on prices, OPEC+' will likely proceed with a planned May oil output hike, sources said, while talks continued to end the war in Ukraine, which could increase supply of Russian crude to global markets. "We've got a little bit of a supply shock of Venezuela losing barrels to the world market. So that's definitely a bullish force," The U.S. on Thursday issued new sanctions intended to hit Iranian oil exports, including what the State Department said were the first U.S. measures targeting a Chinese "teapot refinery" processing the crude. Both benchmarks settled higher on Friday and recorded a second consecutive weekly gain. Wall Street also surged on Monday after signs the Trump administration is taking a measured approach on tariffs against its trading partners. Trump signalled on Friday that there will be flexibility on tariffs and that his top trade chief plans to speak with his Chinese counterpart. He said on Monday he will in the very near future announce tariffs on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals. He also urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates after the U.S. central bank last week kept them unchanged. Lower rates decrease the costs of borrowing, and can boost economic activity and demand for oil. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he anticipates slower progress on inflation in coming months and as a result now sees the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate only a quarter of a percentage point by the end of this year. U.S. and Russian officials were in Saudi Arabia on Monday for talks over a broad ceasefire in Ukraine, with Washington also targeting a separate Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal while a wider agreement is thrashed out. "The fear of more Russian barrels returning to the world market is probably one of the biggest negatives that we've seen," OPEC+, a group that includes OPEC and allied producers led by Russia, will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May, three sources told Reuters, amid steady oil prices and plans to force some members to reduce pumping to compensate for past overproduction. The group, which pumps over 40% of the world's oil, is scheduled to raise output by 135,000 barrels per day in May. OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million bpd, equal to about 5.7% of global supply, in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.

Oil prices explode after this shocking move by US --Oil prices extended their gains for a fifth straight session on Tuesday, driven by concerns over potential supply constraints following fresh U.S. tariffs on nations importing Venezuelan crude. However, the upward momentum was tempered by reports that OPEC+ intends to proceed with an output hike in May. Brent crude futures edged up 46 cents, or 0.6%, to trade at $73.46 per barrel by 1023 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 41 cents, or 0.6%, to reach $69.52 per barrel. The benchmarks had already posted gains exceeding 1% in the previous session. The price rally came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil. Venezuela, whose economy heavily relies on crude exports, counts China—already facing multiple U.S. tariffs—as its largest buyer. "Oil firmed up on the latest tariff moves by the U.S., although gains were capped by reports of OPEC+ moving to increase output further in May," analysts at Panmure Liberum noted. In a related development, the U.S. administration on Monday extended the deadline for Chevron to wind down its operations in Venezuela until May 27. According to ANZ analysts, the withdrawal of Chevron’s licence to operate in the country could lead to a reduction in output by approximately 200,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, sources told Reuters that the OPEC+ alliance—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia—remains committed to its plan of increasing oil production in May. The group is also expected to enforce output cuts on certain members to offset prior overproduction. Last week, Washington imposed additional sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, further adding to market uncertainty. Trump also hinted at upcoming automobile tariffs but suggested that not all levies would take effect on April 2, with some nations potentially receiving exemptions—a move that eased investor concerns on Wall Street.

Oil prices mixed as Russia-Ukraine truce offsets Venezuela supply worries (Reuters) - Oil prices diverged on Tuesday as a maritime and energy truce between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter global supply due to threatened U.S. tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan production.Brent crude futures settled 2 cents higher, or 0.03%, at $73.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $69.The United States reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington agreeing to push to lift some sanctions against Moscow. Kyiv and Moscow both said they would rely on Washington to enforce the deals, while expressing skepticism that the other side would abide by them. "If there's a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, it might open the door for the reduction of sanctions on Russian oil," Trump's threat of tariffs against countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela has raised supply concerns, and both benchmarks rose more than 1% on Monday following the announcement."These secondary tariffs are an indirect sanction to degrade Venezuela's oil supply capability and hurt China's teapot refining system," said Mukesh Sahdev, Rystad Energy's global head of commodity markets, referring to China's small, independent refineries.Oil is Venezuela's main export. China, already a target of U.S. import tariffs, is its largest buyer.The Trump administration also on Monday extended a deadline to May 27 for U.S. producer Chevron to wind down operations in Venezuela.The withdrawal of Chevron's licence to operate could reduce production in the country by about 200,000 barrels per day, according to ANZ analysts.Last week, the U.S. issued new sanctions intended to hit Iranian oil exports.OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May, four sources told Reuters, amid steady oil prices and plans to force some members to reduce pumping to compensate for past overproduction.Executives from commodity trading houses said they expect a well-supplied oil market this year, with concerns remaining over global demand growth, Reuters reported.

The WTI Crude Oil Market Broke a Four Day Winning Streak - The WTI crude oil market traded lower on Tuesday, breaking a four day winning streak, on news that the U.S. reached separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia that may pave the way to an end of the war between Ukraine and Russia. In follow through strength seen on Monday, the market breached its previous high and retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $76.57 to a low of $64.85. It posted a high of $69.68 by mid-morning on expectations that supply may tighten after the Trump administration on Monday announced tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan crude. The market, however, erased its gains and sold off to a low of $68.52 on the news that truce agreements were reached with Ukraine and Russia covering the Black Sea and energy infrastructure. The market later bounced off its low and traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The May WTI contract settled down 11 cents at $69.00, while the May Brent contract settled up 2 cents at $73.02. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.11 cents at $2.2859 and the RB market settling up 21 points at $2.2087. The United States said it has reached separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and to implement a ban on strikes against energy facilities in the two countries. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said a truce covering the Black Sea and energy infrastructure was effective immediately on Tuesday and that he would seek more weapons and sanctions on Russia from Donald Trump if Russia broke the deals. Russia also confirmed that Moscow agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. The Kremlin added that Russia and the U.S. also agreed to develop measures to halt strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a period of 30 days that started on March 18^th. China’s Foreign Ministry said the country firmly opposes the move by the United States to penalize countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela with tariffs on trades with the United States. Trade of Venezuelan oil to China stalled on Tuesday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s order threatening tariffs on countries buying from Caracas created new uncertainty, days after U.S. sanctions targeted China’s imports from Iran. Chinese traders and refiners said they were waiting to see how the order would be implemented and whether China will direct them to stop buying, although several industry insiders said they expect flows ultimately would continue, noting the frequent shifts in Trump’s tariff threats. China is Venezuela’s largest oil buyer, directly and indirectly taking in 503,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude and fuel or 55% of its exports, that is mostly rebranded as Malaysian after transshipment.Executives from the world’s top commodity trading houses, speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit, said they expect a well-supplied oil market this year, with concerns remaining over global demand growth. They said oil prices could continue to fall as global supply increases, including with OPEC+’s plan to unwind voluntary output cuts in coming months.

Oil prices tick higher as supply tightens -Oil prices rose during Asian trading on Wednesday as concerns over tighter supply grew following United States President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on countries importing oil and gas from Venezuela. By 3:25 pm AEDT (4:25 am GMT), Brent crude futures were up $0.16, or 0.3%, at $73.20 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $0.19, or 0.3%, to $69.19 per barrel. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, authorising 25% tariffs on imports from any country purchasing Venezuelan crude oil or liquid fuels. Venezuela, which relies heavily on oil exports, counts China - already a target of U.S. import tariffs - as its largest buyer. The U.S. administration also extended a deadline until 27 May for U.S. energy firm Chevron to wind down its Venezuelan operations. Meanwhile, ANZ analysts noted: "Crude oil prices were relatively unchanged as traders assessed the latest efforts on a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to implement a partial truce. "The U.S. also said that Russia has agreed to develop measures for implementing a ban on striking Ukraine's energy assets. "A potential truce between Russia and Ukraine could see an easing of U.S. and European restrictions on Moscow’s oil industry." Adding to supply concerns, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels in the week ending March 21, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 2.5 million-barrel decline.

WTI Tops $70 - 3-Week Highs - After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws -- Oil prices are higher this morning (with WTI topping $70 for the first time in three weeks) following an across the board inventory draw reported by API overnight. Additionally, concerns over supply strained by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are also supporting the commodity. "Although the immediate market impact might be minimal, apart from supporting additional short covering from underinvested hedge funds, this action indicates a definite change, potentially signalling the White House's willingness to sacrifice low oil prices to achieve wider strategic objectives-isolating Iran and Venezuela and increasing pressure on China," The upside for oil prices from the U.S. actions is likely limited by coming supply additions as OPEC+ will begin to return 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts in 18 monthly tranches starting in April, while supply from countries outside of the cartel are also on the rise. Will this morning's official data confirm the API drawdowns... API

• Crude -4.60mm (-2.50mm exp)
• Cushing -600k
• Gasoline -3.3mm
• Distillates -1.3mm

DOE

• Crude -3.34mm (-2.50mm exp) - biggest draw since Dec 2024
• Cushing -755k
• Gasoline -1.45mm
• Distillates -421k

The official data confirmed API"s report - with drawdowns across all cohorts with crude stocks dropping most since mid-December... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Despite the 286k barrel addition to the SPR, total crude inventories still tumbled notably...

Concerns Over Tighter Global Supply Following Tariff Threats - The oil market on Wednesday remained well supported by concerns over tighter global supply following the threat of tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude. The market was further buoyed by the weekly crude oil inventory reports showing larger than expected draws in crude stocks. Shipping data showed loadings of Venezuela’s heavy crude at its main oil ports slowed this week after the Trump administration signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on trade with countries buying Venezuela’s oil. The crude market continued to trend higher as the market opened after the API reported a larger than expected draw in crude stocks of 4.6 million barrels. It posted a low of $69.06 in overnight trading before it continued to trend higher. The market was further supported by a 3.3 million barrel draw in crude stocks reported by the EIA, which pushed the market to its high of $70.22. The oil market, however, gave up some of its gains and traded below the $70.00 level during the remainder of the session. The May WTI contract settled up 65 cents at $69.65 and the May Brent contract settled up 77 cents at $73.79. The product markets ended the session in positive territory amid the draws in product stocks, with the heating oil market settling up 28 points at $2.2887 and the RB market settling up 2.41 cents at $2.2328. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the United States on Wednesday to further sanction Moscow, which he said was clearly not pursuing a “real peace” after a night of Russian drone attacks that caused damage in several places. He said the attacks went against the spirit of the peace talks. He singled out strikes on his hometown of Kryvyi Rih and the northern region of Sumy, amid questions swirled over basic details of two ceasefire agreements that were announced by the United States on Tuesday after talks in Saudi Arabia. The United States said it agreed to separate deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause their strikes over the Black Sea and against each other’s energy targets, although it was unclear when the agreements came into force. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said they were effective immediately, but the Kremlin said the Black Sea agreements would not come into effect unless some Russian banks were linked back up with the international financial system.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said global oil demand was seen increasing between 1 million bpd and 1.5 million bpd this year. That compares with the latest expectations from OPEC for an increase of 1.45 million bpd. He said that the OPEC+ group will monitor the oil market, which is currently stable, while it was important to keep the supply-demand balance.According to a Dallas Fed survey, activity in the U.S. oil and gas sector increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025 but uncertainty and pessimism among companies also increased. It reported that oil and gas production increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025 and costs among oilfield service firms increased at a faster pace in the first quarter of 2025 versus the fourth quarter of 2024. Companies expect a WTI oil price of $68/barrel by the end of 2025 and natural gas prices of $3.78/mmBtu. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.6 million bpd of capacity in the week ending March 28^th, cutting available refining capacity by 216,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.5 million bpd in the week ending April 4^th.

Crude oil futures gain as US inventories decline - The Hindu Business Line --Crude oil futures traded higher on Thursday morning after the official data showed a decline in US inventories for the week ending March 21. At 9.53 am on Thursday, June Brent oil futures were at $73.18, up by 0.16 per cent, and May crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $69.79, up by 0.20 per cent. April crude oil futures were trading at ₹6004 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹5991, up by 0.22 per cent, and May futures were trading at ₹5984 against the previous close of ₹5975, up by 0.15 per cent. According to the US EIA (Energy Information Administration), commercial crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending March 21. At 433.6 million barrels, US crude oil inventories were about 5 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels from last week and were 2 per cent above the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels for the week ending March 21 and were about 7 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. On Wednesday, March 26, 2025, President Donald Trump declared a 25% tariff on auto imports, positioning the move as a strategy to enhance domestic manufacturing within the U.S. Trump slaps 25% tariff on auto imports, risking higher prices and trade war Until 2019, India was Venezuela’s third-largest purchaser, after the US and China, importing roughly 300,000 barrels/day on an average Tightening US tariffs on Venezuela threatens crude oil trade with India Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels a day, up by 0.5 per cent from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied in the US averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, down by 0.2 per cent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 1.8 per cent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.9 per cent compared with the same four-week period last year. US crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day for the week ending March 21, an increase of 810,000 barrels a day from the previous week. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose 25 per cent tariff on imported automobiles and parts from April 2. Market fears that such a move could impact the demand for oil, as automobile industry is one of the major consumers of oil in the market. The proposed tariff may lead to an increase in the price of the vehicles, which, in turn, may impact the sales of vehicles. A reduction in vehicle sales could impact the demand for oil. April menthaoil futures were trading at ₹927.50 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹934.10, down by 0.71 per cent.

Oil Prices Rise On Improving Market Sentiment --Oil prices are looking to finish the week in the green, with the pessimism that dominated the markets in the early part of the year beginning to dissipate. Brentcrude for May delivery was trading at $73.67 per barrel at 11.50 am ET in Thursday’s session, flat on the day but nearly $2 higher from a week ago while the corresponding WTI contract was unchanged on the day but similarly gained $2 from a week ago to trade at $69.67 per barrel. Oil prices have now climbed about $5 per barrel from their early-month lows. A recent Dallas Fed Energy Surveyrevealed that activity in the oil and gas sector increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025 while the company outlook index decreased 12 points to -4.9, suggesting slight pessimism among energy companies. According to the latest Baker Hughes data, U.S. rig counts have continued their sideways move, falling by one w/w to 486. Rig count has remained in the 472-488 range for 41 consecutive weeks. The Permian Basin rig count fell by one w/w to 300, having previously been below 300 for just one week in the past three years. The main change was in the Texas portion of the Delaware Basin where drilling fell by three w/w to a three-year low of 62 rigs. In contrast, the U.S. gas rig count rose by two w/w to 102, with the Haynesville and Marcellus rig count unchanged at 30 and 26, respectively. Likewise, positioning across the energy complex remains mainly negative, with traders concerned about Trump’s tariffs as well as a potential return of Russian oil flows.And now commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have buttressed the growing bullish thesis, saying oil market sentiment continues to improve after the lows hit during London’s IE Week in February. StanCharts points to several catalysts driving the improving mood. First off, the supply surpluses the market feared have yet to materialize, with the outlook for Q2 and Q3 suggesting that no surplus is imminent. In contrast, oil markets could soon be facing a deficit, with StanChart predicting that global demand will exceed supply by 0.9 mb/d in Q2 and by 0.5 mb/d in Q3. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is, however, more cautious, and sees demand outstripping supply by 0.1 mb/d in Q2 and a balanced market in Q3. Both the EIA and StanChart have forecast a slight inventory draw across 2024 and 2025 combined. Last week, StanChart revealed that global oil demand remains robust, with demand in January averaging 102.77 million barrels per day (mb/d), good for a 2.19 mb/d Y/Y increase. StanChart’s figure is based on a variety of national sources and the 19 March Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) release. Notably, the estimates from Standard Chartered align closely with those from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which has estimated January oil demand at 102.74 million barrels per day (mb/d), with a growth rate of 1.85 mb/d. Typically, January marks the seasonal dip in global oil demand. However, Standard Chartered forecasts that demand will surpass 105.0 mb/d for the first time in June, peaking at a high of 105.6 mb/d in August 2025.Further, Standard Chartered has predicted that the dramatic slowdown in U.S. oil production growth witnessed in 2024 will continue in 2025 and 2026. According to the analysts, last year witnessed a sharp slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, primarily caused by a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024. StanChart expects this trend to continue, with U.S. liquids growth expected to clock in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 before slowing down further to 151 kb/d in 2026. Meanwhile, Europe’s gas prices have pulled back to around €41/MWh from February highs near €60/MWh as traders shift focus to stockpiling for next winter. Gas price volatility remains high, with the price trajectory broadly sideways. Front-month TTF has mostly moved into the EUR 41.95-42.00 per megawatt hour (MWh) range over the past 10 trading days. EU gas inventories stood at 39.81 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 23 March, good for a y/y fall of 29.33 bcm and 12.54 bcm below the five-year average. Storage levels remain below 34% of full capacity, keeping supply risks in focus.

The Market Continued to Assess the U.S. Tariff Announcements - The oil market on Thursday posted an inside trading day as the market continued to assess the U.S. tariff announcements and concerns over global supply kept the market well supported. The market remained supported by the Trump administration announcement earlier this week regarding 25% tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude oil. The market also remained supported by the weekly oil inventory reports that showed larger than expected draws in crude stocks in the latest week. The market posted the day’s trading range by mid-day sold off to a low of $69.12 and later posted a high of $69.97. The market traded sideways as the market assessed the impact on oil demand from the Trump administration’s latest announcement of a 25% tariff on imported vehicles starting next week, in addition to the previous tariff announcements earlier in the week. The May WTI contract settled up 27 cents at $69.92 and the May Brent contract settled up 24 cents at $74.03. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 40 points at $2.2847 and the RB market settling up 1.36 cents at $2.2464.According to the latest Dallas Federal Reserve Bank quarterly energy survey released on Wednesday, found that producers believe they need to average $65 per barrel for drilling new wells in the various shale plays. These producers also believe Henry Hub natural gas prices will average $3.78 per MMBtu two years from now and rising to $4.83 per MMbtu five years from now. The survey respondents also noted that if crude oil prices fall to $50 power barrel, U.S. oil production will start to decline almost immediately and likely would fall by 1 million b/d or more within six months. One executive survey noted that to stimulate new oil and gas activity would require crude prices to average in the $75-$80 per barrel range while another noted the need for additional takeaway capacity for gas from the Permian basin, given earnings on gas production from the Permian is slightly negative to barely positive.Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said contacts between Russia and the United States are the beginning of a long and difficult process of restoring relations. He said it is premature to draw “far-reaching conclusions” about Russia-U.S. relations based on these contacts.Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the proposed Black Sea Initiative was a new deal, not an extension of an earlier agreement under which U.N. officials agreed to help Russia get its food and fertilizer exports to foreign markets.Sources stated that Indian port authorities denied entry to a tanker loaded with Russian crude on Thursday due to inadequate documentation. Shipping data showed the Tanzania-flagged Andaman Skies, carrying about 100,000 metric tons or 800,000 barrels of Varandey Russian oil sold by Lukoil from the northern port of Murmansk, was on course for the Vadinar Port for delivery to state refiner Indian Oil Corp before being turned away.The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said GDP increased at an upwardly revised 2.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Growth was previously estimated to be 2.3%. The economy grew at a 3.1% rate in the third quarter.

Oil Slips Despite Weekly Gain --Oil fell on concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff onslaught will reduce energy demand. West Texas Intermediate slid 0.8% to settle above $69 a barrel, retreating along with equity markets. Crude still notched its third straight weekly advance amid waning expectations of a near-term oversupply. The US is planning to impose tariffs on auto imports and so-called reciprocal levies next week, widening the global trade war. Oil traders face an uncertain outlook as they grapple with President Donald Trump’s policies and an OPEC+ plan to revive idled output. WTI futures have been rangebound for the past eight months, trading in a band of about $15 between the high $60s and low $80s. “US stocks are struggling, and longer-term demand fears are on the minds of most traders as tariffs begin to kick in on cars not manufactured in the US,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. Earlier this week, Vitol’s chief executive officer said while there are some threats to supply, it’s generally adequate for the next couple of years. Meanwhile, Venezuela is boosting oil exports to China as the Trump administration deploys sanctions and secondary tariffs to squeeze the Latin American nation. WTI for May delivery fell 0.8% to settle at $69.36 a barrel in New York. Futures gained 1.6% for the week. Brent for May settlement dipped 0.5% to settle at $73.63 a barrel.

Oil slips on recession fears but posts 3rd weekly gain (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday on worries that U.S. tariff wars could spark a global recession, but gained for a third consecutive week after Washington ratcheted up pressure on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. Brent crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5% to settle at $73.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 56 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $69.36 a barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs targeting a wide range of imports, effective on April 2. The trade war has investors worried about a potential recession, JPMorgan analysts told clients. "Concerns about a trade war, coupled with elevated U.S. policy uncertainty, are weighing heavily on sentiment," they said. Although recession risk was elevated, high-frequency oil demand indicators have held up relatively well for now, JPMorgan noted. Mid-week data from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 956,000-barrel draw. On a weekly basis, Brent futures gained 1.9%, while WTI rose 1.6%. Since hitting multi-month lows in early March, Brent is up more than 7%, and WTI has rebounded over 6%. "The key theme this week was the Trump administration ratcheting up the pressure on the Maduro regime in Venezuela," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said. Trump on Monday announced new 25% tariffs on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude, days after U.S. sanctions targeting China's imports from Iran. The measures could exacerbate an anticipated 200,000 barrel-per-day decline in Venezuelan crude oil output this year, Singh said. It has compounded uncertainty for buyers and saw trade of Venezuelan oil to top buyer China stall. Elsewhere, sources said India's Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), opens new tab, operator of the world's biggest refining complex, will halt Venezuelan oil imports. Oil markets are readjusting global supply expectations as a result of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, with Trump having promised to drive the latter's oil exports to zero. The U.S. has issued four rounds of sanctions targeting Iran's oil sales since Trump's return to the White House. The second quarter should be tighter than originally thought, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. "If there are reductions in Venezuelan or Iranian crude oil barrels on the market this would certainly be a bullish development." The OPEC+ group is set to begin its program of monthly increases to oil production in April. The group, which comprises OPEC and allies led by Russia, will likely continue to raise oil output in May, Reuters reported on Monday.

Israel establishes government bureau to oversee Gaza ethnic cleansing, as death toll tops 50,000 -- Israel’s security cabinet has formally voted for the establishment of an office to oversee the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Defense Minister Israel Katz reported on Sunday. The office will be the “Voluntary Emigration Bureau for Gaza residents interested in relocating to third countries,” Katz claimed. In reality, there is nothing “voluntary” about the program the Netanyahu government is implementing. The population of Gaza is to be forced out of their ancestral homeland through deliberate mass starvation and mass killings by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Katz said the office would enable passage of Gaza residents for their voluntary departure to third countries, including securing their movement, establishing movement routes, checking pedestrians at designated crossings in the Gaza Strip, as well as coordinating the provision of infrastructure that will enable passage by land, sea and air to the destination countries. Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump called for the displacement of the Palestinian people from Gaza and called for its annexation by the United States, saying, “The US will take over the Gaza Strip. ... We’ll own it.” Trump added the US will “level it out.” Katz reiterated the Israeli government’s support for Trump’s proposal, declaring, “We are working with all means to implement the US president’s vision.” The US-Israeli plan is a flagrant violation of the prohibition under the Fourth Geneva Convention of the forcible transfer of civilians during armed conflicts. The US and Israel are engaged in a campaign to pressure countries throughout the Middle East and Africa to accept the Palestinians once they are forcibly displaced from Gaza. At the Israeli security meeting that set up the new office, cabinet members said the US is still working to find countries to accept the displaced Palestinians..

Israeli Attacks Kill 62 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israeli attacks killed at least 62 Palestinians and wounded 296 in the previous 24-hour period as Israeli strikes continue to pound targets across the Strip.The Health Ministry’s numbers account for dead and wounded Palestinians who arrived at hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Medical sources told Al Jazeera that at least 23 Palestinians, including seven children, were killed by Israeli attacks overnight Monday into Tuesday, which included strikes on displaced Palestinians sheltering in tents.The Health Ministry said that since Israel restarted its genocidal war on Gaza on March 18, at least 792 Palestinians have been killed, and 1,663 were injured. Save the Children said at least 270 Palestinian children had been killed by Israel over the past week.The Israeli military issued fresh evacuation orders for Palestinians in northern Gaza, threatening attacks on the northern cities of Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Shejaia in Gaza City. The IDF also ordered the displacement of Palestinians in areas of southern Gaza.Also on Tuesday, rare anti-Hamas protests were reported in northern Gaza. Videos on social media showed Palestinians marching and calling for an end to Israel’s genocidal war and chanting for Hamas to “get out.” Messages shared on social media also called for more protests to be held in different areas of Gaza on Wednesday.Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its update that its total recorded death toll since October 2023 has reached 50,144, and the number of wounded has risen to 113,704. Gaza’s Media Office has said that nearly 62,000 adults and children have been killed by Israeli violence since October 2023, a number that accounts for missing Palestinians. Other estimates that factor in indirect deaths put the death toll in the hundreds of thousands.

Co-director of award-winning No Other Land attacked by Israeli fascist settlers and military -According to multiple news reports, Hamdan Ballal, one of the four directors of No Other Land, the winner of the best documentary feature at the recent Academy Awards, was beaten by a mob of Israeli settlers on Monday and detained by the military. His whereabouts are unknown. Only three weeks ago, Ballal, along with fellow directors Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, was on the stage at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles to accept an Oscar. Now Zionist fascists and soldiers threaten his life.The Guardian published an extensive report on the vicious attack, based on the eyewitness accounts of five Jewish-American activists from the Center for Jewish Nonviolence.The activists asserted that Ballal was surrounded and attacked by a group of about 15 armed settlers in Susya in the Masafer Yatta area south of Hebron.Joseph, who asked not to use his full name for security reasons, said:They started throwing stones towards Palestinians and destroyed a water tank near Hamdan’s house. The witnesses said that a group of soldiers arrived at the scene alongside other settlers dressed in military uniform who chased Hamdan to his house and handed him over to the military. ‘‘The settlers destroyed his car with stones and slashed one of the tyres,’’ another witness, Raviv, told The Guardian. ‘‘All the windows and windshields were broken.’’

Gaza Health Ministry Releases Names of 15,613 Children Killed by Israel Since October 2023 - Gaza’s Health Ministry on Monday released the names of 15,613 children who have been killed by the US-backed Israeli assault on Gaza since October 2023.The children were included in a list of 50,021 Palestinians who have been killed by the IDF and have been fully identified. The first 27 pages of the list named infants killed by the Israeli military who didn’t reach their first birthday, accounting for 876 of the dead children.Children aged 6-12 were the most represented age group among children killed by Israel, accounting for 36.8%. Children aged 13-17 accounted for 31.2%, while ages 1-5 accounted for 26.3%, and infants made up 5.7% of the 15,613 slaughtered kids. The list only includes children who have been fully identified as of March 23 and doesn’t account for those missing under the rubble or children who have died due to indirect causes due to the Israeli siege.Gaza’s Media Office has said that nearly 62,000 adults and children have been killed by Israeli violence since October 2023, a number that accounts for missing Palestinians. Other estimates that factor in indirect deaths put the death toll in the hundreds of thousands. Hundreds of children have been killed since Israel restarted its massive bombing of Gaza last week. According to Haaretz, 200 children were killed in a single day, marking the single largest massacre of children in Israel’s history. When asked about the massive child casualties, the US has blamed Hamas and has expressed its full-throated endorsement of Israel’s actions. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters last week that the US would “stand with Israel in every circumstance.”

Report: Netanyahu Demanded the IDF Bomb Homes Without Intelligence - Early in the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the head of the Israeli military to hit thousands of targets without intelligence, including homes. According to Nahum Barnea’s reporting inYnet, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Netanyahu during a meeting on October 9, 2023 that the IDF already was bombing 1,500 targets per day.Barnea’s sources explained that Netanyahu banged on the table and demanded, “Why not 5,000?” When the PM was told the IDF lacked the intelligence to conduct so many strikes, he replied, “I’m not interested in targets. Take down houses, bomb with everything you have.”Previously, 972 Magazine reported that the IDF had employed an AI program dubbed Lavender to mark Palestinians as members of Hamas. This program increased the number of targets the IDF would generate, with a source explaining that it treated the outputs of the AI machine “as if it were a human decision.”In total, 37,000 Palestinians were put on Lavender’s target list, with many of them killed in their homes, along with dozens of family members. Sources discussed with the outlet how they changed the inputs in Lavender so the AI would add additional names to the list.“One day, totally of my own accord, I added something like 1,200 new targets to the [tracking] system, because the number of attacks [we were conducting] decreased,” the source said. “That made sense to me. In retrospect, it seems like a serious decision I made. And such decisions were not made at high levels.”

Israel Established Office Dedicated To Removing Palestinians From Gaza -- The Israeli Security Cabinet created a new office within the Defense Ministry that will work to remove all Palestinians from Gaza. Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Tel Aviv is moving forward with President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza. The Times of Israel reports that the new office was established on Saturday night. A statement from Katz’s office said the body will work to encourage what it called the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from Gaza, and that he would be appointing the head of the agency in the coming days.The office will work to “prepare for and enable safe and controlled passage of Gaza residents for their voluntary departure to third countries, including securing their movement,” the statement explained. “As well as coordinating the provision of infrastructure that will enable passage by land, sea and air to the destination countries.”It went on to argue that Tel Aviv’s cleansing of Gaza is in line with Trump’s vision. “We are working with all means to implement the US president’s vision, and we will allow any Gaza resident who wants to move to a third state to do so,” the statement added.Trump has said that he wants to “clean out” and “take over” Gaza in order to create the “Riviera of the Middle East.” The president explained that the proposal would call for the permanent removal and resettlement of the Palestinians.On Friday, Katz said that Israeli forces would begin annexing Gaza. “I have instructed the IDF to seize additional areas in Gaza, while evacuating the population, and to expand the security zones around Gaza for the protection of Israeli communities and IDF soldiers,” he announced. One of the issues Tel Aviv and Washington face in cleansing Palestinians from Gaza is finding countries to take in the refugees. Many states have refused to accept Palestinians, believing the move would help Israel to expel Palestinians from their homeland. In recent weeks, reports have surfaced that the US and Israel reached out to Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan, and Syria to take Gazans. The new Defense Ministry office came about through joint planning between Katz and Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich recently explained that Israel could expel between 5,000 and 10,000 Palestinians from Gaza per day, and would be able to fully “cleanse” the Strip in a year. He believes his vision is in line with Trump’s. Israel broke a hostage and ceasefire deal brokered by Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, by cutting off all aid to Gaza at the beginning of March. Last week, Israel resumed large-scale bombing in the Strip, killing at least 500. Two hundred of the dead are children. However, the White House has endorsed the Israeli policy, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Thursday that Trump supports Israel’s renewed military operations. “The president made it very clear to Hamas that if they did not release all of the hostages there would be all hell to pay,” she said.

Israel prepares to fully occupy Gaza, displace entire population - The Israeli military is preparing to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, internally displace the remaining population and provide only the “minimum caloric amount necessary for survival,” according to three international publications. On Monday, both the US-based National Public Radio (NPR) and the UK’s Financial Times confirmed a report published Friday by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that Israel is “Preparing to Occupy Gaza, Reinstate Military Rule and Fully Control the Palestinian Population.” The publications report that Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) current offensive in Gaza, which began last Tuesday with the massacre of 400 people in a single day of airstrikes, is aimed at the full military occupation of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military has widened the areas it is occupying day by day, internally displacing an ever-larger section of the Palestinian population. Left unsaid in the reports on the renewed occupation is its connection to the plan, first laid out by US President Donald Trump in February and officially embraced by the Israeli government, to ethnically cleanse Gaza and annex its territory. On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reported that Israel’s security cabinet has formally voted for the establishment of an office to oversee the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. The office will be a “Voluntary Emigration Bureau for Gaza residents interested in relocating to third countries,” Katz claimed. While Israeli officials have claimed that the displacement of the Palestinians would be “voluntary,” the fact is that this massive relocation operation would require direct military coercion. As such, the plan for the complete military occupation of Gaza would be a basic prerequisite for putting the ethnic cleansing program into effect. Friday’s report in Haaretz alleged that “preparations are underway for a large-scale operation to occupy Gaza and restore full Israeli control.”

Israel’s Defence Minister vows to annex parts of Gaza as all-out aid blockade and military offensive continue - Defence Minister Israel Katz issued a statement Friday committing the Zionist regime to annex parts of Gaza if Hamas refuses to release the remaining hostages under its control. Israel continued its all-out onslaught on the enclave for a fifth straight day, with a brutal blockade on all aid launched at the beginning of March still in force. “The more Hamas persists in its refusal to release the hostages, the more territory it will lose, which will be annexed to Israel,” Katz declared. “If the hostages are not released, Israel will continue to take more and more territory in the Strip for permanent control.” Referring to US President Donald Trump’s plan to expel Gaza’s Palestinian population and turn the enclave into a “riviera of the Middle East,” Katz continued that Israel would intensify its military operations. Israel will deploy “all military and civilian pressure, including evacuation of the Gaza population south and implementing US President Trump’s voluntary migration plan for Gaza residents.” The description of Trump’s plan for Gaza as consisting of “voluntary migration” for the Palestinians stretches the term Orwellian to its limits. Since returning to the White House, the fascist-minded president has repeatedly made clear his support for ethnic cleansing and the elimination of the Palestinian population from the enclave. In late January, Trump urged Israel to “clean out” the Arab population from the Gaza Strip. At a joint appearance with Netanyahu at the White House February 4, Trump then openly embraced the expulsion of the Palestinians, declaring that Gaza “should not go through a process of rebuilding and occupation by the same people that…lived a miserable existence there.” Trump urged “other countries” to “build various domains that will ultimately be occupied by the 1.8 million Palestinians living in Gaza.” He concluded by suggesting that the US would annex Gaza. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce was repeatedly asked Friday to comment on Katz’s threat to begin annexing Gaza, but refused to answer directly. Underlining the Trump administration’s approval for Katz’s proposal, Bruce responded by saying that the present situation has “one cause, Hamas.” After using a six-week ceasefire in Gaza to regroup and rearm, the far-right Israeli regime was emboldened by Trump’s outspoken support for forcibly removing the Palestinians to impose a full blockade on food and aid entering the enclave at the beginning of the month. Sam Rose, director of planning for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), said in Geneva Friday, “This is the longest period since the start of conflict in October 2023 that no supplies whatsoever have entered Gaza. The progress we made as an aid system over the last six weeks of the ceasefire is being reversed.” The UN says it only has flour supplies in Gaza to last six days.