natural gas rig count at a 15 month high after biggest increase in 2 years; oil rig count at a 33 month low

US oil prices finished lower for the first time in three weeks on concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariff​'​s, after he put off further sanctions on Russian oil for 50 days…after rising 2.2% to $68.45 a barrel last week after Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked and sunk two ships in the Red Sea, and after the International Energy Agency said the global oil market was tighter than it appeared, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for August delivery rose in Asian trading on Monday, hitting its highest level in three weeks, supported by news that China’s crude oil imports increased 7.4% for the year ending June, but sold off sharply by early afternoon in New York, pressured by concerns that Trump’s tariff policies would slow global economic growth and energy demand, and settled $1.47 lower at $66.98 a barrel as traders weighed new threats from President Trump for sanctions on buyers of Russian oil that might affect global supplies, while still worried about Trump's tariffs… oil prices fell in Asia on Tuesday as Trump’s relatively long 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions, and continued to trade lower in New York as President Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided altogether, and settled 46 cents lower at $66.52 a barrel on a stronger US dollar, which made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies….oil prices declined in Asian markets again on Wednesday after the late Tuesday American Petroleum Institute report showed US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose at the end of last week, then extended those losses in early US trading as fears of near-term supply disruptions gave way to concerns over a looming supply glut later this year, and settled the session 14 cents lower at $66.38 a barrel as big U.S. fuel inventory builds shown in the weekly petroleum stocks report reinforced concerns over demand….however, oil prices rose in early trading on Asian markets on Thursday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic data from the world’s top oil consumers and signs of easing trade tensions, and also rose early during the US session amid signs that inventories ​were low in the peak summer demand season, and ​amid resurfacing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, then rallied higher on a resurg​i​ng Middle East risk premium after drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for a fourth day, and settled $1.16 higher at $67.54 a barrel as output in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region had been slashed by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, or by more than half the region's normal output of about 280,000 bpd….oil prices ticked up slightly but were largely flat during Asian trading Friday, as supply losses from Iraqi pipeline disruptions were offset by renewed demand concerns tied to U.S. tariff threats against key Asian economies, then moved higher on global markets after the EU adopted its 18th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the price cap, targeting Russian oil trade, and closing a loophole that ha​d so far allowed EU imports of fuels processed from Russian crude, but gave up those gains in US trading on mixed U.S. economic and tariff news and worries about oil supplies following the European Union's latest sanctions against Russia​, to settle 20 cents lower at $67.34 a barrel and thus finish down 1.6% for the week…

natural gas prices, on the other hand, finished higher for the first time in four weeks on increased LNG demand and forecasts for the hottest weather of the summer...after falling 2.9% to $3.314 per mmBTU last week on increasing gas production, abundant inventories, and generally inconsequential weather forecasts, the price of the benchmark natural gas contract for August delivery opened 7.8 cents higher on Monday, and continued its overnight ascent to an intraday high of $3.498 by 10:25 AM, supported by bullish updated weather forecasts and ​by steady LNG exports, and ultimately closed 15.2 cents higher on the day at $3.466 per mmBTU on rising flows of gas to LNG export plants and forecasts for hotter than expected weather over the next two weeks… natural gas prices were little changed early Tuesday, as traders sought direction throughout the morning following the formation of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could disrupt production, then rallied to an intraday high of $3.542 at 2:00PM before settling 5.7 cents higher at $3.523 per mmBTU on hotter trends over the prior several days, LNG exports near record highs of 17 billion cubic feet per day, and a hot US pattern forecast for the 8 to 15 day period…the price of August gas started Wednesday’s session 4.9 cents higher, following an overnight jump that was attributed sustained above-average temperatures for the coming two weeks, and held within a tight band near $3.570 through the morning, before turning volatile after midday and settling 2.8 cents higher at $3.551 per mmBTU, on near-record flows of gas to LNG export plants as hot weather boosted the amount of gas power generators needed to burn to keep air conditioners humming …natural gas opened 5.8 cent higher on Thursday and rose to $3.619 by 9:15 AM, as short-term weather forecasts remained bullish, then turned ​down after a disappointing storage report to settle 0.9 cents lower at $3.542 per mmBTU as hot weather ​still forced power generators to increase their gas burn for air conditioning, despite a storage build that was bigger than usual for this time of year due to near-record production….natural gas futures were higher early Friday, as hotter weather outlooks shifted the market’s attention away from the in-line storage report on Thursday, but were knocked down midday by data showing increased drilling activity that could lead to more supply next year, before resuming their ascent to settle 2.3 cents higher at a three week high of $3.565 per mmBTU on heat related air conditioning demand and a slow but steady rise in gas flows to LNG export plants, which left natural gas prices 7.6% higher for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending July 11th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage rose by 46 cubic feet to 3,052 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our natural gas supplies 156 billion cubic feet, or 4.9% below the 3,208 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on July 11th of last year, but 178 billion cubic feet, or 6.2% more than the five-year average of 2,874 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 11th of July over the most recent five years….the 46 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas storage for the cited week was in line with the 46 billion cubic foot addition to storage that was forecast in a Reuter’s poll of analysts ahead of the report, but was much more than the 18 billion cubic foot that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2024, and also more than the average 41 billion cubic foot addition to natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early July week over the past five years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 11th indicated that after a big increase in our oil exports, and an increase in demand for oil that the EIA could not account for, we needed to pull oil out of our stored crude supplies for the tenth time in twenty-three weeks, and for the 23rd time in fifty-three weeks, in spite of an increase in our oil imports and a decrease in refinery throughput….Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 366,000 barrels per day to average 6,379,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 906,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 761,000 barrels per day to average 3,518,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,861,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending July 11th, an average of 395,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 619,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 10,000 barrels per day lower at 13,375,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,855,000 barrels per day during the July 11th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,849,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 11th, an average of 158,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 594,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports, from transfers, and from oilfield production during the week ending July 11th averaged a rounded 600,000 barrels per day more than what what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ -600,000] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed…. Moreover, since 788,000 barrels per day of oil supplies could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 1,388,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, meaning the week over week changes that we have just cited are complete nonsense…However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were gospel, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….also see this old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s rounded 594,000 barrel per day average decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of ​5​60,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while 34,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first withdrawal from the SPR since September 2023, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to that​ August… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to 6,314,000 barrels per day last week, which was 6.3% less than the 6,739,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 10,000 barrels per day lower at 13,375,000 barrels per day even as the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 12,966,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 14,000 barrels per day lower at 409,000 barrels per day.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.1% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also up 37.9% from the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 93.9% of their capacity while processing those 16,849,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending July 11th, down from their 94.7% utilization rate of a week earlier, but still within the normal range for this time of year…. the 16,849,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were 0.5% less than the 16,928,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending July 12th of 2024, and were 2.4% less than the 17,267,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending July 12th, 2019, when our refinery utilization rate was at 94.4%, which is also close to normal for this time of year…

With the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was also lower, decreasing by 815,000 barrels per day to 9,084,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 11th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had increased by 278,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 4.7% less than the 9,549,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending July 12th of last year, and 7.8% less than the gasoline production of 9,855,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending July 12th, 2019….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil)​ decreased by 109,000 barrels per day to 5,034,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 59,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After that production decrease, our distillates output was 4.7% less than the 5,229,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending July 12th of 2024, and 7.0% less than the 5,361,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending July 12th, 2019…

Even with this week’s decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the seventh time in twenty weeks, increasing by 3,399,000 barrels to 232,867,000 barrels during the week ending July 11th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 2,658,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies increased this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 670,000 barrels per day to 8,489,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of gasoline fell by 166,000 barrels per day to 877,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 192,000 barrels per day to 624,000 barrels per day, ….Even after fifteen gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past twenty-three weeks, our gasoline supplies were barely changed from last July 12th’s gasoline inventories of 232,994,000 barrels, and were slightly above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even with the decrease in this week’s distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the 11th time in 28 weeks, increasing by 4,173,000 barrels to 106,970,000 barrels during the week ending July 4th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 825,000 barrels to a twenty year low during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies increased this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, fell by 245,000 to 3,423,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 474,000 barrels per to 1,111,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 76,000 barrels per day to 146,000 barrels per day...After 46 withdrawals from inventories over the past 76 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 16.5% below the 128,066,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on July 12th of 2024, and are still about 21% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the big increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 11th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 22nd time over the past year, decreasing by 7,070,000 barrels over the week, from 426,021,000 barrels on July 4th to 422,162,000 barrels on July 11th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 7,070,000 barrels over the prior week… After that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were still 8% below the recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, while they were about 20% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of July over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze-offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this July 11th were 4.1% below the 440,226,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on July 12th of 2024, and 7.7% less than the 457,420,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on July 7th of 2023, and were 1.1% more than the 427,054,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on July 8th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

The US rig count increased by seven during the week ending July 18th, the first increase in twelve weeks, as two rigs targeting oil were removed, but nine rigs targeting natural gas were added...the natural gas rig increase was the biggest weekly increase since July 2023, and left the most rigs in the field since March 2024, while the the 422 oil directed rigs that remained was the lowest US oil rig count since September 2021…for a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes...in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of July 18th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (July 11th) and this week’s (July 18th) count, the third column shows last week’s July 11th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 19th of July, 2024…

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ArcLight Acquires Ohio Gas-Fired Power Plant — ArcLight Capital Partners has signed definitive agreements to acquire 100% of the economic interests in the Middletown Energy Center, a 484-megawatt natural gas-fired power plant located in Butler County, Ohio. The plant, which began operations in 2018, is one of the newest combined-cycle natural gas facilities in PJM, the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States. ArcLight is purchasing the asset from a consortium of sellers through a series of transactions. Financial terms were not disclosed. The deal is expected to close in 2025, pending regulatory approvals.ArcLight cited growing regional power needs, driven by industrial growth and data center expansion, as a key factor behind the investment.“With increasing demand for digital infrastructure, Ohio has emerged as a premier hub for data centers and Middletown Energy Center, with ArcLight's stewardship, stands ready to meet the substantial electric infrastructure needs of this vital sector,” said Angelo Acconcia, Partner at ArcLight.“Middletown provides reliable and dispatchable power to the PJM market,” said Andrew Brannan, Managing Director at ArcLight. “Reliable and efficient power generation is essential to ensuring continued industrial and data-center related investment in the region, and highly efficient resources such as Middletown are vital to these initiatives.”ArcLight has a long track record in power infrastructure investment, having owned, controlled, or operated over 65 gigawatts of assets and more than 47,000 miles of electric and gas transmission infrastructure. The firm currently manages what it says is the largest private power infrastructure portfolio in North America.

Talen Energy Buys 2 M-U Gas-Powered Plants in PA, OH for $3.8B -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Talen Energy, a leading energy producer in the U.S., which owns and operates approximately 10.7 gigawatts (GW) of power infrastructure, has announced the acquisition of two gas-fired power plants: one located near Wilkes-Barre in northeastern Pennsylvania, and the other in Guernsey County, in eastern Ohio, for $3.8 billion. The PA plant is fed by Marcellus molecules, and the OH plant is fed by Utica molecules. We have followed both projects from inception through commissioning and operation

Talen to acquire power stations in Pennsylvania, Ohio for $3.5 billion - - Talen Energy (TLN.O), opens new tab is acquiring two power plants located in Pennsylvania and Ohio for a net $3.5 billion, it said on Thursday, adding that it expects the move to boost the company's free cash flow per share by over 40% in 2026. Shares of the company jumped about 16% in extended trading. The two combined-cycle gas-fired plants are located in the PJM power market. U.S. electricity demand has risen for the first time in two decades, driven by the rapid growth of data centers and artificial intelligence, prompting Big Tech companies to scramble for reliable energy sources. Talen will pay $1.46 billion in cash for Caithness Energy's Moxie Freedom Energy Center, in Pennsylvania, which owns and controls a 1,105 megawatts (MW) natural gas fired combined cycle generation project. For the 1,875 MW Guernsey power station located in Ohio, owned by Caithness and BlackRock, Talen will pay $2.33 billion in cash, according to a regulatory filing. The gross value of the deals are expected to be about $3.8 billion. In June, Talen expanded its nuclear energy partnership with Amazon to supply up to 1,920 MW of electricity from its Susquehanna plant in Pennsylvania to cope up with the increasing electricity demand. "The transaction adds more than the equivalent of another Susquehanna nuclear plant to our platform, further enabling large load service," said Talen CEO Mac McFarland. The Moxie and Guernsey deals are both expected to close in the fourth-quarter and the company will issue about $3.8 billion in new debt to fund the acquisitions and refinance target debt, using both secured and unsecured instruments.

Pennsylvania Energy Industry Losing Out to Ohio Due to Red Tape -- Marcellus Drilling News --The media fuss is hard to miss about today’s Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit being held at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. PA Senator Dave McCormick organized the event. Among the attendees will be President Trump, several cabinet secretaries, and other White House officials. Much of the buzz is around $90 billion in AI and energy investments expected to be announced. In preparation for the big event, a roundtable was held yesterday at CNX headquarters in Washington County, PA, to discuss clearing away permitting obstacles and red tape to help PA realize some (if not most) of that $90 billion in investments.

Frontier Group Converting Coal to Gas-Fired Plant, NatGas from EQT-- Marcellus Drilling News -- In the list of major energy projects announced for Pennsylvania yesterday, the Frontier Group announced plans to invest $3.2 billion to transform the former Bruce Mansfield coal power plant in Beaver County into a natural gas power station (and co-located data center), renamed the Shippingport Power Station. This project is expected to create 15,000 construction jobs and over 300 permanent jobs. But here’s the cool part. The new Shippingport Power Station will utilize approximately 800 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas produced from the Marcellus and Utica shales, all of which will be sourced from EQT Corporation.

EQT to Supply Natural Gas for Data Center Campus in Pennsylvania— Homer City Redevelopment (HCR) has reached an agreement in principle with EQT Corporation to supply natural gas to the Homer City Energy Campus, a planned 3,200-acre AI and high-performance computing data center campus in Pennsylvania.The project, set to begin producing power in 2027, will include a 4.4 GW natural gas–fired generation facility, converting the site of Pennsylvania’s largest retired coal plant into a next-generation energy and data infrastructure hub.Under the deal, EQT will serve as the exclusive gas supplier to the project, providing supply through both the Texas Eastern Transmission and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage pipeline systems. This will create a high level of redundancy and supply security for the site.According to the companies, the project could unlock up to 665,000 MMBtu/day of natural gas supply, making it one of the largest single-site gas transactions in North America. “This agreement ensures long-term energy security for the data center campus, while demonstrating our commitment to powering the future with Pennsylvania gas, Pennsylvania power and ultimately, Pennsylvania data centers.”GE Vernova will supply seven high-efficiency 7HA.02 natural gas turbines, with deliveries set to begin in 2026. Kiewit Power Constructors Co. is leading engineering, procurement, and construction.

Homer City Power Pledges to Buy $15 Billion of PA NatGas from EQT -In a day of big news, there was big news related to the largest gas-fired power plant project in the country, along with a massive data center complex, to be built at a former coal-fired power plant site in Indiana County, PA (see Largest Gas-Fired Power Plant in the U.S. Coming in Western Pa.). As we previously informed you, the site will be transformed into a more than 3,200-acre natural gas-powered data center campus, complete with a 4.4-gigawatt Marcellus-fired power plant. Yesterday, the builder, Homer City Redevelopment (HCR), announced an agreement in principle to purchase $15 billion of Pennsylvania natural gas to feed the plant. A separate announcement stated that HCR will purchase all $15 billion of that gas from EQT Corporation.

PPL Teams With Blackstone to Build $15B Gas Power Network for Data Centers - PPL Corporation and Blackstone Infrastructure have announced a strategic joint venture to construct and operate new gas-fired, combined-cycle generation stations in Pennsylvania. The venture, owned 51% by PPL and 49% by Blackstone, will focus on powering data centers through long-term energy services agreements (ESAs). The initiative addresses PJM Interconnection's forecasted capacity shortages starting 2026-27. Within PPL Electric Utilities' service territory, data center interest has reached over 60 GW of potential projects, with 13 GW in advanced planning. PPL estimates a 6 GW generation shortfall in the next 5-6 years, representing approximately $15 billion in investment needs. PPL's JV with Blackstone to build gas plants for data centers addresses PJM's looming capacity shortage while securing regulated-like revenue streams. This strategic joint venture positions PPL Corporation to capitalize on the explosive data center growth in Pennsylvania while mitigating traditional merchant power risks. The 51/49 partnership structure with Blackstone Infrastructure allows PPL to maintain control while leveraging Blackstone's deep pockets and expertise in data center development. The venture addresses a critical market need: PJM Interconnection forecasts potential capacity shortages by 2026-27, while PPL Electric's service territory alone has over 60GW of potential data center projects with 13GW in advanced planning. This creates an estimated 6GW generation shortfall in the next 5-6 years, representing approximately a $15 billion investment opportunity. What makes this approach unique is the business model - using long-term energy services agreements (ESAs) with hyperscalers that provide regulated-like risk profiles, shielding the venture from merchant energy and capacity price volatility. These contracts create predictable revenue streams without traditional merchant power risk, essentially creating utility-like returns from non-utility assets. The strategic positioning is exceptional - building generation atop the Marcellus and Utica shale basins with ready access to natural gas supply and targeting areas with significant data center interest. The venture has already secured multiple land parcels, engaged with gas pipeline companies and turbine manufacturers - all foundational steps before securing ESAs with hyperscalers. While no ESAs have been signed yet, the pressing need for dispatchable generation in PJM creates strong market pull. However, this venture doesn't eliminate the need for broader solutions to address resource adequacy, including potential legislation allowing utilities to directly own generation again

Pittsburgh Energy Event Truly Mind-Blowing, $92B+ Investments for PA -- Marcellus Drilling News -- We are still staggering, trying to get a handle on the Trump freight train that hit Pittsburgh yesterday at an event organized by Pennsylvania Senator Dave McCormick, called the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit. Seriously, we are in awe of what happened yesterday. At the event, featuring Donald Trump and a host of luminaries, a list of more than $92 BILLION of new investments was announced that will go to the Keystone State. That’s nearly one-tenth of a trillion dollars! ALL of it private investment (not taxpayer money). It’s not unfair to say that the bell of the ball, the centerpiece, was the Marcellus Shale. Much (not all, but a significant portion) of the announced investments centered on the use of natural gas—specifically, PA Marcellus Shale natural gas. Just, WOW!!!! In this post, we present a brief overview of the announced projects. In today’s other posts, we focus on individual projects that most caught our attention and continue to leave us speechless.

21 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 7 – 13 - Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of July 7 – 13, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica remained the same as the previous week. There were 21 new permits issued across the three M-U states last week. The Keystone State (PA) issued seven new permits. Range Resources secured three permits, spread across Beaver and Washington counties, in the southwestern part of the state. Seneca Resources received two permits in Tioga County, in the northeastern part of the state. Greylock Energy and Coterra Energy each received a single permit, in Potter and Susquehanna counties, respectively. ARSENAL RESOURCES | ASCENT RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | COLUMBIANA COUNTY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY |ENERGY COMPANIES | EOG RESOURCES | GREYLOCK ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | POTTER COUNTY| RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | WASHINGTON COUNTY

TGP’s Mississippi Crossing Pipe Project Working on Approvals-- Marcellus Drilling News -- Last December, Kinder Morgan’s Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) subsidiary announced a final investment decision (FID) last December to build the Mississippi Crossing Project (MSX) Project after securing long-term, binding transportation agreements with customers for all the capacity (see TGP Announces FID on New 206-Mile Mississippi Crossing Pipe Project). The $1.7 billion project involves the construction of nearly 206 miles of 42-inch and 36-inch pipeline and two new compressor stations aimed at flowing 2.1 Bcf/d of natural gas (upgraded from an initial 1.5 Bcf/d). MSX will move more Marcellus/Utica gas into Mississippi and Alabama. The project is currently “winding its way through the approval process.”

208-Mile Mississippi-to-Alabama Gas Pipeline Moves Into FERC Review (P&GJ) — Kinder Morgan’s Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, L.L.C. (TGP) has filed a formal application with federal regulators to build the Mississippi Crossing Project (MSX), a $1.7 billion natural gas pipeline expansion designed to deliver 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of firm transportation capacity across Mississippi and Alabama. The project includes 208 miles of new pipe — the centerpiece being a 199-mile, 42- and 36-inch mainline stretching from Greenville, Mississippi, to Butler, Alabama. Additional infrastructure includes three new compressor stations, multiple interconnects, and four metering facilities. TGP submitted its Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on June 30, 2025, officially moving the project into the federal review phase. The filing followed the May 31 submission of all required environmental resource reports, which included consultations with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. The project is backed by strong market demand, with more than 90% of its capacity under long-term precedent agreements. Customers include major Southeast utilities and power generators such as Southern Company Services, Dominion Energy South Carolina, Tennessee Valley Authority, and the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia. TGP affiliate Southern Natural Gas Company has secured 1.17 Bcf/d of capacity to serve downstream users. TGP is requesting FERC approval by July 1, 2026, with construction scheduled to begin in January 2027 and the pipeline expected to enter service by November 2028. An independent market analysis submitted with the application projects that natural gas demand in Mississippi and Alabama will grow by 8% by 2030, driven by coal retirements, increased electricity generation, and industrial activity. Current infrastructure in the region is operating near peak capacity. In addition to enhancing energy reliability, the project is expected to provide a significant economic boost. TGP estimates it will support 4,760 to 9,820 average annual jobs across Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia during construction, generating between $950 million and $2.4 billion in regional economic output.

Tallgrass Launches Open Season for New Permian Gas Pipeline — Tallgrass has launched a binding open season to solicit shipper commitments for firm transportation service on a planned new natural gas pipeline connecting the Permian Basin to multiple U.S. markets.The open season began July 21, 2025, and will allow shippers to secure capacity to transport Permian Basin gas to Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) markets and other delivery points as outlined in the open season terms.According to Tallgrass, the project is designed to expand access to affordable natural gas for key U.S. industrial, agricultural, and data center markets.“By connecting the Permian Basin to Rockies Express and multiple delivery points, this project will enable affordable and plentiful natural gas to access markets broadly across the U.S., including multiple major markets that are key hubs of activity for industrial, agricultural, and data center development,” Tallgrass said in the announcement.

Some M-U Molecules on REX Pipeline Could Get Bumped for Permian - Marcellus Drilling News - We still marvel, to this day, at how Tallgrass Energy Partners turned what looked like a financial disaster into an economic bonanza. Tallgrass built the Rockies Express (REX) pipeline, which stretches from Colorado and Wyoming to Ohio, just in time for the shale revolution to take hold. Whoops! Talk about bad timing! A significant portion of REX, its Zone 3 pipeline from Missouri to Ohio, was in danger of drying up in 2012 due to the increase in Marcellus/Utica gas production (see REX NatGas Pipeline Faces Stiff Competition from Marcellus). Tallgrass did an about-face, reversing the flow of REX to run from Ohio to Missouri a year later, in 2013 (see REX Reverses Pipeline Flow from OH for Mystery Utica Customer). Since that time, volumes along the Zone 3 portion of REX have continued to increase. A lot of Marcellus/Utica gas now flows from our region to the Midwest by hitching a ride on REX---some 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). However, M-U molecules will have to compete with cheaper molecules from the Permian if Tallgrass goes forward with a plan to build a new connecting pipeline from the Permian to REX.

Kinder Morgan Backlog Lifted by ‘Enormous’ Natural Gas Power Demand and LNG - Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) executives said they are witnessing the biggest surge in demand for natural gas in decades, with power generation chasing LNG as a growth driver and now claiming half of the midstream giant’s $9.3 billion project backlog. Kinder Morgan asset map showing an extensive network of natural gas pipelines, storage sites, processing plants, LNG facilities, and CO2 infrastructure across the United States. Key pipeline systems such as El Paso, Transco, and Tennessee Gas Pipeline are highlighted, along with refined products and CO2 pipelines, terminals, oil fields, RNG plants, and LNG production sites. Major hubs include Texas, the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and Northeast regions, with dense infrastructure connecting key energy markets. “We’re seeing power demand in Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Texas,” CEO Kim Dang said Wednesday. She spoke during the Houston-based company's second quarter earnings call. “The breadth and the scope of the power demand is enormous.”

Gas storage can’t keep up with production boom - — From the surface, the Spindletop salt dome in East Texas looks like a shadow of its former glory. The marshy area started Texas’ oil boom in 1901, when a gusher spewed 800,000 barrels of crude over nine days. Now, while the area’s oil production has faded and a few industrial sites dot the landscape, Spindletop is home to what may become a new gold rush: underground natural gas storage. The U.S. could face a shortage of natural gas storage capabilities because of rising demand for liquefied natural gas exports and gas-fueled electricity to help power artificial intelligence and data center hubs. If companies don’t boost storage capabilities as demand for natural gas expands, a crunch could upend natural gas prices and how the market works, said Jason Feit, an adviser to energy data provider Enverus. “We’re getting really close to a timing mismatch risk where you’ve got LNG exports that are going to be in service and operating before new storage sites are going to be in service,” Feit said. “You can expect gas price volatility for the next few years and even more so if these storage projects don’t go forward.” Natural gas production has risen by an average of 4.7 percent a year from 2013 to 2023, according to the American Gas Association. Underground natural gas storage capabilities, meanwhile, have grown by 0.1 percent annually from 2014 to 2023. The trend is apparent near the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico, which President Donald Trump renamed the Gulf of America. That’s where large LNG export facilities are expected to come online in the next decade. But bringing underground storage online takes years, and some environmental groups and neighbors of gas facilities worry about safety risks — especially after a handful of accidents such as storage cavern collapses that have spawned sinkholes, swallowed personal property and triggered evacuations. Roughly 306 billion cubic feet of natural gas is stored in salt domes across the country over a five-year average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, while another 782 billion cubic feet of gas is stored underground in places like depleted oil and gas fields and old aquifers, typically located outside the Gulf Coast.

Natural Gas M&A Deals Sizzle as LNG, Power Demand Heats Up -Global upstream deals have fallen sharply this year in all but one category – North American natural gas – as LNG exports expand and power demand soars in the Lower 48 and Western Canada. Bar graph showing natural gas' share in upstream U.S. shale deals compared to NGLs and liquids. Natural gas deals, “especially in U.S. shale and Canada’s Montney region, are holding up well,” Rystad Energy’s Atul Raina, vice president of upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) research said. Worldwide M&A dealmaking was reviewed through the first half of the year. North American natural gas has been hot, but oil-rich prospects not so much.

U.S. LNG Expansion Marches on as Newcomers Advance Projects - As some new U.S. LNG export projects are ramping up, and others are under construction or have recently been sanctioned, still more are being proposed or advancing beyond the conceptual stage amid a wave of momentum for the sector. Eight projects are currently under construction or being commissioned along the Gulf Coast that would add 98.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) of U.S. liquefaction capacity. Another seven terminals are in commercial operation with about 94 Mt/y of capacity that already make the United States the world’s largest LNG exporter. Nearly two dozen other projects are in varying stages of development, including a few that are thought to be close to positive final investment decisions (FID). Despite the crowded market, new projects are still being announced and others are making progress that just a few years ago might have been inconceivable for a variety of reasons.

Venture Global Eyes 52 Mt/y LNG Output at Plaquemines as Supply Ambitions Expand- Venture Global LNG Inc. told federal regulators this week that it plans to further expand its Plaquemines export facility under construction in Louisiana. The company is now planning to design the third phase of Plaquemines to produce 24.8 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG, expanding a plan it first announced in March to add 18.6 Mt/y of liquefaction capacity to the plant. The third phase expansion project would now include 16 liquefaction blocks with 32 smaller LNG production trains instead of the 12 blocks with 24 modular trains that were previously planned.

Golden Pass LNG Preparing to Fire Up Equipment With First Feed Gas Nomination - The Golden Pass LNG export terminal under construction on the Texas coast nominated feed gas for the first time late Thursday. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. The evening cycle for Friday’s gas day shows Golden Pass nominated 4,067 Dth, or roughly 4 MMcf, of feed gas, according to data collected by NGI. The nomination doesn’t necessarily mean gas is flowing to the facility, but it was requested for the first time as Golden Pass ramps up commissioning activities. The 18 million tons/year project requested authorization from FERC earlier this month to introduce fuel gas to power boilers at the facility. It also requested permission to introduce hazardous fluids and fuel gas to the flare system. FERC has not yet authorized those requests.

Freeport Gets More Time to Expand After ‘22 Explosion Setback — FERC has given more time for Freeport LNG Development LP to build a fourth train at its export terminal on the upper Texas coast. The company now has until Dec. 1, 2031 to complete the expansion and bring it into service. The project was first authorized in 2019. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved two previous extensions. An explosion in 2022 knocked the terminal offline for eight months. The company has focused on restoration efforts since then. It finished bringing back equipment impacted by the incident earlier this year, but those efforts setback its expansion project, according to FERC’s authorization.

U.S. Feed Gas Nominations Droop on Apparent Outages at Two LNG Terminals — A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers

• 15.44 million Dth: Operational interruptions at two LNG terminals reversed the steep recovery of feed gas demand from earlier in the week. After maintenance impacted flows at key Gulf Coast terminals at the beginning of the month, feed gas nominations had been sustained above 16 million Dth/d for the past several days, according to NGI calculations and pipeline data. However, U.S. nominations to LNG terminals dipped to 15.44 million Dth/d by Wednesday afternoon after outages at Freeport LNG in Texas and the Southern LNG facility on Elba Island, GA. Freeport reported a compressor system issue that caused an outage and extended restart of Train 2. Pipeline nomination data showed flows to Kinder Morgan Inc.’s (KMI) Elba Island facility dropped to zero Wednesday. A KMI spokesperson told NGI the drop was associated with planned maintenance at the 2.5 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity terminal.
• 2 Mt/y: Eni SpA has become the latest customer of Venture Global LNG Inc.’s proposed CP2 terminal expansion with its first long-term supply agreement with a U.S. exporter. The Italian supermajor agreed to purchase 2 Mt/y for 20 years from the first phase of CP2. Cargoes could begin by 2029, according to Eni. Italy’s imports of U.S. LNG have been increasing since 2022, contributing to an increase in spot cargo purchases. U.S. suppliers are currently outpacing deliveries from Qatar, traditionally the top exporter to Italy, according to Kpler data.
• 138,250 cubic feet: Egypt has secured an additional floating storage and regasification unit, raising the potential for more U.S. LNG exports as soon as next month. The state-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. has signed a five-year charter for New Fortress Energy Inc.’s (NFE) 138,250 cubic feet capacity vessel Winter. The unit could begin accepting cargoes at the terminal location in Damietta by August, according to NFE. Egypt’s LNG imports this year have already eclipsed the 2.9 Mt it received last year amid a heat wave and intense demand. The majority of Egypt’s LNG import volumes since 2024 have come from the United States, according to Kpler data.
• 63.2%: The pace of natural gas imports to the European Union (EU) is casting doubts about the bloc’s ability to hit its storage goals before the winter, according to Mind Energy. Analysts with the European trading company wrote in a recent note that higher gas consumption rates and the curtailment of Russian gas will likely make hitting a 90% storage level by Nov. 1 “a serious challenge to meet this year.” EU storage was at 63.2% full on July 14, almost 18% below the same time last year and 4.6% below the five-year average, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.

U.S. Gas Prices Jump 5% on Rising LNG Exports, Gulf Heat Forecast - (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Monday on forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks than previously expected and rising flows of gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 15.2 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $3.466 per million British thermal units, their highest close since July 2. That price increase occurred despite rising output and forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Even though gas futures have dropped about 14% over the past three weeks, speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange to their highest levels since early April, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report showed. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said a tropical system off the east coast of Florida has about a 30% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone as it moves west into the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida over the next week. Analysts have noted that tropical storms in the Gulf can knock some production out of service, but noted that only about 2% of all U.S. gas output comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico. The analysts noted that storms were more likely to be demand-destroying events that leave homes and businesses without power and can shut LNG export plants. Meteorologists slightly reduced their forecasts for hotter weather for this week but continued to project the Lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least July 29, especially in late July. Even though the weather has remained above normal so far this summer, analysts expect energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. That's because output hit a record high in June and was on track to top that in July, while gas flows to LNG export plants have so far languished since hitting a record in April. There is currently about 6% more gas in storage than the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year, and analysts expect that surplus to grow in coming weeks. Some analysts, however, noted that an expected rise in LNG exports should start to chip away at that surplus later this year. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 106.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 Bcf/d in June. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 107.8 Bcf/d this week to 106.8 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

US natgas prices hold near 2-week high as hot weather boosts power demand — U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-week high on Thursday as hot weather forced power generators to burn lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.9 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $3.542 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since June 27 for a second day in a row. A federal storage report showed an expected build that was bigger than usual for this time of year due to near-record production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 46 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended July 11. That was in line with the 46-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 18 bcf during the same week last year and an average of 41 bcf over the 2020-2024 period. The build left gas stockpiles around 6% above the five-year normal for this time of year. The U.S. National Hurricane Center on Thursday downgraded the chance that a tropical system off the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi would strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next week to just 10%, from a 40% chance on Wednesday. Analysts said that while tropical storms in the Gulf can knock some gas production out of service, storms were more likely to destroy demand by reducing the amount of gas power generators burn by leaving millions of homes and businesses without electricity, while also cutting gas exports by shutting Gulf Coast LNG export plants. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would mostly remain hotter than normal through at least August 1, with the hottest days of the summer expected next week. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 107.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, feedgas slid to a three-week low of 105.2 bcfd on Wednesday due to the shutdown of Kinder Morgan's KMI 0.4-bcfd Elba Island in Georgia and the brief shutdown of one of the three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. Energy traders said gas flow data shows the train at Freeport, which shut on Tuesday, was probably back in service.

US Natgas Prices Edge Up to 3-Week High as Heat Boosts Air Conditioning Use - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a three-week high on Friday as hot weather forces power generators to burn lots of the fuel to keep air conditioners humming and a slow but steady rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. That price increase came despite ample amounts of gas in storage and record output. That record output should allow energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Stockpiles were currently around 6% above the five-year normal. Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.565 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 27. For the week, the front-month was up about 8% after dropping around 14% over the prior four weeks. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 2, with the hottest days so far this summer expected next week. Temperatures across the country will average around 81 degrees Fahrenheit (27.2 degrees Celsius) on July 25, on track to top this summer’s current hottest daily average of 80 F on June 24 but still below the daily average record high of 83 F on July 20, 2022, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2018. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June. On a daily basis, output hit a record high of 107.92 bcfd on July 14, topping the prior all-time daily high of 107.91 bcfd on April 18. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 110.1 bcfd this week to 107.4 bcfd next week before rising to 110.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan said its 0.4-bcfd Elba Island LNG export plant in Georgia should return to service by the weekend after a couple of days of maintenance. Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

Freeport LNG Granted 40-Month Extension for Delayed Train 4 - Freeport LNG’s Texas export terminal was set to increase natural gas intake on Thursday following a shutdown of one of its three liquefaction trains earlier in the week, according to a company filing with state regulators and gas flow data from LSEG, as reported byEnergy Now. In a notice to Texas environmental officials on Wednesday, Freeport reported an emissions event after Train 2 went offline Tuesday night due to a compressor system malfunction.The development comes shortly after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Thursday granted Freeport LNG Development LP an additional 40 months to complete its fourth liquefaction train. The extension moves the deadline to December 1, 2031, allowing the company more time to restart construction following delays caused by the June 2022 explosion that shut down the facility.Train 4 would add 5 million tonnes per annum of LNG export capacity to Freeport’s existing three-train terminal, which currently operates at 15 mtpa. Once completed, total nameplate capacity would rise to nearly 20 mtpa. The expansion was originally approved in 2019 under Docket CP17-470. According to Natural Gas Intelligence, this marks the third time Freeport has requested an extension for the project.The 2022 explosion was caused by overpressurized piping and resulted in a fire that shut down all liquefaction operations. Freeport remained offline for more than six months while conducting a root-cause investigation and implementing FERC- and PHMSA-mandated safety upgrades. Partial service resumed in early 2023 under revised regulatory conditions.Freeport is the second-largest LNG export facility in the United States, accounting for roughly 15 percent of U.S. liquefaction capacity. Hart Energy reports that the company continues to evaluate financing and contractor alignment before issuing a final investment decision on Train 4.Construction timelines remain dependent on permitting conditions, capital structure, and global LNG demand.

When Will U.S. E&Ps Raise Rigs? Questions Mount as LNG Exports Climb, Data Center Interest Grows - As the earning season begins for second quarter results, U.S. natural gas and oil executives are likely to be peppered about waxing and waning commodity prices, uncertain tariff policies and the continued slump in Lower 48 drilling activity. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Waha daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. Earnings season kicks off this week, with midstream giant Kinder Morgan Inc. delivering its results on Wednesday. SLB Ltd., the No. 1 global oilfield services (OFS) operator, will provide its results on Friday, with an outlook for exploration and production (E&P) activity in North America. The “No. 1 question likely will be when will rigs go back to work,” NGI’s Patrick Rau, senior vice president of research and analysis, said. He also wants to hear about concerns that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices could dip below $50/bbl by year’s end, as OPEC-plus increases output.

US Drillers Add Oil and Gas Rigs For First Time in 12 Weeks, Baker Hughes Says (Reuters) – U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in 12 weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by seven, its biggest weekly increase since December, to 544 in the week to July 18. Despite this week’s rig increase, Baker Hughes said the total count was still down 42 rigs, or 7% below this time last year. Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by two to 422 this week, their lowest since September 2021, while gas rigs rose by nine, the biggest weekly increase since July 2023, to 117, their most since March 2024. In Texas, the biggest oil and gas-producing state, the rig count fell by two to 253, the lowest since October 2021. In the Permian basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, the biggest U.S. oil-producing shale formation, the rig count fell by two to 263, also the lowest since October 2021. But in the Haynesville shale in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, one of the nation’s biggest and fastest-growing gas-producing The oil and gas rig count declined by about 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 as lower U.S. oil and gas prices over the past couple of years prompted energy firms to focus more on boosting shareholder returns and paying down debt rather than increasing output. The independent exploration and production (E&P) companies tracked by U.S. financial services firm TD Cowen said they planned to cut capital expenditures by around 3% in 2025 from levels seen in 2024. That compares with roughly flat year-over-year spending in 2024, and increases of 27% in 2023, 40% in 2022 and 4% in 2021. Even though analysts forecast U.S. spot crude prices would decline for a third year in a row in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected crude output would rise from a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to around 13.4 million bpd in 2025. On the gas side, the EIA projected a 68% increase in spot gas prices in 2025 would prompt producers to boost drilling activity this year after a 14% price drop in 2024 caused several energy firms to cut output for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic reduced demand for the fuel in 2020. The EIA projected gas output would rise to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025, up from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 and a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.

Louisiana facility taps CO2 emissions to extract oil - CF Industries has begun operating a carbon dehydration and compression unit at a sprawling complex in southeast Louisiana — part of the ammonia producer’s efforts to curb emissions and take advantage of a top carbon capture incentive. In an announcement Monday, the Illinois-based company said carbon dioxide trapped at its Donaldsonville complex in Louisiana will be stored via enhanced oil recovery on an “interim basis.” The process uses the gas to help extract more oil.Texas-based Exxon Mobil is handling the transportation and storage component of the project as part of an agreement unveiled more than two years ago. The eventual plan is to sequester the carbon underground through dedicated geologic storage, CF Industries said in a news release.That will start at Exxon’s planned CO2 storage project in East Texas, CF Industries said in its release. This month, EPA issued draft permits for CO2 injection wells to Exxon’s proposal, which is called the Rose Carbon Capture and Storage project. The comment period closes Aug. 4.

New Budget Law Boosts Carbon Sequestration, Enhanced Oil Recovery -The budget reconciliation bill signed into law July 4 by President Trump — known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — dramatically scales back a number of clean-energy tax credits and adds a new layer of complexity for some projects, leading to a lot of doom and gloom around clean-energy initiatives, but the new legislation is a big positive for the carbon-capture industry. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how changes to the 45Q tax credit could help advance carbon-capture efforts while also providing a boost to producers of crude oil and blue hydrogen. To drive development in the carbon-capture industry, Congress created the 45Q tax credit. It was added to the federal tax code in the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008, then expanded and extended under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. But the more generous tax credits didn’t spur a lot of activity, which is why improvements to the tax credit were included in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Credits jumped to $85 per metric ton (MT) for CCS and $60/MT for CCUS, up from $50/MT and $35/MT, respectively. Direct air capture (DAC), a far more expensive process, had been eligible for credits at the CCS and CCUS rates before the IRA. Its credit rates rose to $180/MT for CCS and $130/MT for CCUS. (Also note that all those enhanced credits under the IRA came with prevailing-wage and apprenticeship requirements.) The most significant changes under the OBBBA are the revisions to the credit rates themselves, with CCS and CCUS/EOR now equal at $85/MT for most carbon-capture facilities and $180/MT for DAC. (The blue bar sections in Figure 1 above indicate the credit rates under the IRA; the orange bar sections show the increases under the OBBBA.) The change provides additional operational and financial flexibility for blue hydrogen producers (more on them in a bit), who have the option to claim the 45Q or 45V tax credits, but not both. We should also note that while the tax credits will eventually be indexed to inflation, the legislation pushes the indexing year back from 2027 to 2028. The new rates are especially beneficial to two of the largest companies in the energy sector: Oxy and ExxonMobil.Let’s start with Oxy, which has big plans to utilize DAC technology through its 1PointFive subsidiary. Oxy has a significant footprint in the prolific Permian Basin and a long history with carbon capture via EOR. Its Stratos DAC project (see photo below) in West Texas’s Ector County, which is expected to cost more than $1 billion and begin commercial operations as soon as this year, received its operating permit from the EPA in April. It has already secured agreements to sell carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits to several other companies, including AT&T, Microsoft and Trafigura. Its most recent agreement, announced July 16, is with cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks. (CDR credits are measurable, verifiable emissions reductions from certified projects. Project developers like 1PointFive can sell credits directly to buyers, through a broker or on an exchange. Credit costs from DAC projects range from as low as $100/MT to several hundred dollars.)Another beneficiary of the enhanced tax credits is ExxonMobil, which established itself as the undisputed leader in CCS when it acquired Denbury in a deal announced in July 2023. As we detailed in I Was CCS When CCS Wasn’t Cool, the $4.9 billion transaction provided ExxonMobil with the largest owned and operated CO2pipeline network in the U.S. at 1,300 miles, including about 925 miles in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as 10 strategically located onshore sequestration sites — all along the Gulf Coast industrial corridor, an area that has some of the highest concentrations of CO2 emissions anywhere in the world.ExxonMobil said it has already committed to storing more than 17 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of CO2from its customers, with current capacity at 9 MMtpa. Under its most recent agreement, announced in April, ExxonMobil will transport and store up to 2 MMtpa of CO2 from Calpine’s Baytown Energy Center, a cogeneration facility near Houston. It is part of Calpine’s Baytown Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Project designed to capture the facility’s CO2 emissions, enabling the 24/7 supply of low-carbon electricity to Texas customers as well as steam to nearby industrial facilities. The agreement is ExxonMobil’s sixth with a CCS customer.

Strike Pioneers First-of-Its-Kind Pipe-in-Pipe Installation on Gulf Coast with Enbridge — Strike, a leading provider of pipeline, facilities, and energy infrastructure solutions, recently completed a groundbreaking project along the Gulf Coast that set a new standard for complex pipeline installation. In what is believed to be the first project of its kind, Strike performed the engineering, procurement, and installation of approximately 13,000 linear feet of 16-inch pipeline inside an existing 20-inch pipeline, converting the larger pipe into a casing. The project included a 9,950-foot segment under Nueces Bay, as well as a 3,550-foot segment beneath the Corpus Christi Inner Harbor Channel. The two cased sections were connected via a 750-foot section of in situ replacement. This unique pipe-in-pipe solution allowed the team to minimize impacted areas and greatly reduce the schedule demands of permitting and executing a new HDD crossing. “When the client first approached our team with the challenge, our engineering and construction teams immediately went into problem-solving mode. The preparation and teamwork demonstrated by both Enbridge and Strike illustrated how much can be accomplished when you operate with full transparency,” said Tanner Patterson, Senior Vice President of Regional Operations at Strike. “This unique project wasn’t without its challenges, such as ensuring the new pipe and bumpers could be safely and effectively installed over such a long distance, given the existing HDD profile. Working alongside our client and leveraging our network of vendors, the team overcame these issues and ultimately completed the project on schedule. Our internal engineering and construction teams worked alongside the client throughout a challenging permitting and design process. Additionally, we aided in developing a unique solution to address long-term viability through the design and implementation of a cathodic protection system. Most importantly, the project was completed without any safety incidents.”

Analysis: EOG's Best Permian, Eagle Ford Inventory is Dwindling --EOG Resources “is basically out of Tier 1 Karnes [County, Texas] inventory” for oily Eagle Ford wells, Roth analyst Leo Mariani said. In the Permian Basin, “EOG may only have a few years left of Tier 1 Permian inventory.” Roth Capital Partners downgraded EOG Resources’ stock to “neutral,” reporting the $67-billion market cap E&P’s Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale economics are “deteriorating.” Roth Capital Partners downgraded EOG Resources’ stock to “neutral,” reporting the $67-billion market cap E&P’s Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale economics are “deteriorating.”EOG has a shorter inventory life versus its E&P peers—ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy and Occidental Petroleum—Roth analyst Leo Mariani wrote to clients.Mariani told Hart Energy, “EOG is basically out of Tier 1 Karnes [County, Texas] inventory” for oily Eagle Ford wells.In the Permian Basin, “EOG may only have a few years left of Tier 1 Permian inventory.”EOG did not respond to a request for comment.In the Permian, EOG operates in the Delaware Basin, except for a relatively small position in the northern Midland Basin where it has been prospecting for Dean and Spraberry pay.Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs, agreed that EOG is nearly out of oily Tier 1 future well locations in the Eagle Ford at its current drilling pace.“We're down to maybe between 100 and 200 locations of that with another couple hundred of Tier 2,” Myers told Hart Energy.Formerly a securities analyst, he cited from an Eagle Ford study Novi Labs plans to release in September.A recent EOG $275 million bolt-on acquisition from Arrow S Energy of mostly undeveloped property in the oil window gave it 110 more Tier 1 locations, but that’s about a year’s worth at EOG’s drilling and completions pace, he added.The deal “brings them up to a little over six years of remaining inventory implied at the recent drilling cadence,” he said.Overall, “Eagle Ford Tier 1 is definitely starting to see signs of exhaustion. You're getting into these little bolt-ons now.”EOG still has running room in the Delaware, though, Myers said. Data show the E&P’s remaining Tier 1 inventory there has simply become normal in comparison with other Delaware operators, he said.On a rock-quality score, EOG started drilling in the basin in the early 2010s with some of the best.“EOG’s starting point was ridiculous,” Myers said. “Their rock quality was so high that they were pretty much in front of everybody, maybe with the exception of Oxy.”In time, what EOG has left puts them only in the “best in class” category.“Yes, their rock quality in the Permian's deteriorating. Everyone's is. But EOG has deteriorated from considerably better than everyone to just best in class. And that's super important.”“Deteriorating” could suggest “they're middle of the pack now.”Rather, “they're still amazing.”“They had such a head start and they were so much better than everyone at the beginning that they obviously had to come down at some point.”

ConocoPhillips asks to drill more wells in Alaska - ConocoPhillips plans to drill exploratory wells in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to expand its drilling operations in the Arctic, if approved by the Interior Department.The exploration via four wells and seismic testing — if they lead to significant discoveries underground — could increase crude oil production out of Alaska for years. The state is already the site of ConocoPhillips’ planned Willow oil project. That would align with the Trump administration’s push to double down on American fossil fuel production. It could also lock in decades’ worth of new carbon emissions at a time when scientists are warning of the dire consequences that will come from a failure to curb climate change. Houston-based ConocoPhillips applied Monday for permits to drill exploration wells mostly in the eastern areas of the NPR-A, not far from the Willow project, according to a company statement. One well would be in the Greater Mooses Tooth unit, while another would be in the Bear Tooth unit; two other wells would be drilled “to the west,” ConocoPhillips said. The seismic program would occur south of the Greater Mooses and Bear Tooth units.“ConocoPhillips is dedicated to the safe and responsible development of our leaseholds in Alaska for the benefit of all Alaskans and our nation’s energy security,” the company said in its emailed statement. “We recognize the strategic importance of resource development in the state and are seeking authorization from the Bureau of Land Management to conduct exploration activities in the NPR-A during the winter season of 2025-2026.“ConocoPhillips looks forward to continuing our more than 50-year track record of responsibly exploring for and developing Alaska’s resources in the years ahead,” ConocoPhillips added.Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, which manages underground resources on federal lands, declined to comment.The application for exploratory wells was reported earlier by Bloomberg.For environmentalists, drilling in the largest tract of U.S. public land is both a danger to species like polar bears, arctic foxes and migrating birds as well as a failure to phase out oil operations. Green groups have long opposed the contentious Willow oil project, which is under construction and scheduled to begin producing oil in 2029. “The proposed oil exploration around the Willow mega-project is reckless in the face of the climate crisis and ongoing concerns from the community of Nuiqsut,” Matt Jackson, Alaska senior manager at The Wilderness Society, said in a statement.Drilling activity on Alaska’s North Slope has long been a source of tension. In 2023, former President Joe Biden approved ConocoPhillips’ Willow oil project, which could involve about 200 wells that may be active for decades. But Biden also restricted or banned drilling in about half the NPR-A. The Trump administration has since moved to remove those protections, sometimes called the 2024 Western Arctic rule, and open up 82 percent of the NPR-A for oil and gas leasing.

Mexico Pacific Seeks to Delay Sagauro LNG Commercial Operations to 2032 -The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is considering a seven-year extension request from Mexico Pacific Ltd. LLC that the company said it needs before it can finance its long-proposed LNG export project that would be fed by U.S. natural gas. Table summarizing Mexico LNG export projects by status, location, type, number of trains, capacity in MTPA and Bcf/d, including proposed and under-construction terminals such as Amigo LNG, Energia Costa Azul, and Vista Pacifico LNG, based on NGI and U.S. energy agency data. In its application entered into the federal register last week, representatives for Mexico Pacific disclosed the company would be unable to place the proposed 15 million ton/year (Mt/y) Saguaro Energía project into commercial service by mid-December (90 FR 30223). Mexico Pacific’s “inability to commence export operations by Dec. 14, 2025, has resulted from circumstances not under its control,” representatives for the firm wrote in the filing. “Nevertheless, [Mexico Pacific] has made, and continues to make, significant progress toward satisfying the conditions required to achieve a final investment decision (FID) and to commence construction of the facility.”

Trump Admin Tells Corrupt IEA: Change Your Ways or We & Our $$ Walk -- Marcellus Drilling News -- It’s one thing to openly criticize and attack fossil energy and the U.S.’s embrace of fossil energy. It’s an entirely different thing when U.S. taxpayers pay for those attacks. We’re speaking of the far-left-leaning International Energy Agency (IEA) and its corrupt leader, Dr. Fatih Birol. We’ve written plenty about the IEA over the years, noting its dramatic shift away from real science into leftist political science. The Trump administration has had enough of the IEA’s antics and has put the agency on notice that unless it changes the way it forecasts about energy, we’re out. The U.S. will withdraw its membership, and along with it, a substantial amount of the agency’s funding (millions of dollars). Birol can find someone else to fund his lavish lifestyle and jet-setting around the globe to bash fossil fuels.

US and EU firms strike major gas deal as trade talks hit crunch time - — One of Europe’s largest energy companies has signed a multidecade agreement to buy American natural gas, as U.S. President Donald Trump calls on the continent to boost imports to avoid hard-hitting tariffs. In a statement shared with POLITICO, Italian firm ENI and Virginia-headquartered exporter Venture Global confirmed they had penned a 20-year deal to ship 2 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year. The announcement marks the first long-term contract signed between ENI and a U.S. gas producer. “This deal marks a significant milestone for the company and is further recognition of our growing global energy leadership and strong record of execution,” said Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global. Trump has consistently cited LNG as an opportunity to avoid a worsening trade war with Washington. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way,” he said in December.

Dutch Gas Demand Hits Record Lows, Raising Alarm for Global LNG Markets -- (Reuters) — Gas-fired electricity production has dropped to record lows in the home country of Europe's largest gas-trading hub, dealing a fresh blow to natural gas bulls who eye Europe as a key growth market for sales of LNG and pipelined gas supplies. The Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands establishes the main benchmark natural gas price for most of Europe, and the Netherlands' extensive pipeline networks and central location give it insight into gas supply and demand trends. The Netherlands itself has historically been a heavy gas consumer, and from 2000 to 2020 relied on natural gas for well over half of its utility electricity supplies, according to energy thinktank Ember. However, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Dutch utilities have aggressively slashed natural gas use, and over the first half of 2025 gas power plants supplied only a third of the country's electricity. For major natural gas producers and exporters such as the United States, Russia and Qatar, the rapid and sustained cuts to gas use by a formerly integral gas consumer are cause for alarm, as it may herald further cuts for Europe as a whole. Despite its relatively small size and population, the Netherlands wields considerable influence regionally and globally. The country's massive port facilities around Rotterdam are the main entry and exit points for crude oil, refined products, crops and many consumer goods into and out of Europe. The Netherlands is also home to a large high-tech industry and several multi-national corporations which rely on the country's strong infrastructure and global connections. The country's strategic importance is reflected in the status of the Dutch government, which is highly influential within the European parliament and plays a key role in shaping regional policies on trade, agriculture and finance. Dutch utilities have also been leaders in adopting clean energy supplies, despite once being home of the headquarters of oil and gas major Shell. Between 2022 and 2024, electricity production from clean power supplies jumped by 27% in the Netherlands compared to a 16% rise in clean power output within the European Union over the same period, Ember data shows. That outsized growth was driven by a 57% jump in wind power and a 34% rise in solar power electricity generation. That aggressive increase in renewable energy sources in turn changed the balance of the country's electricity generation mix. Until 2023, the country was primarily powered by fossil fuels, but since then clean energy sources have become the primary fuels for electricity generation and so far in 2025 have generated 57% of the country's electricity. Despite the switches, electricity supplies scaled record highs in 2024 to ensure that the country's electricity output kept up with demand needs. Wholesale power prices in the Netherlands have also remained competitive within Europe as the Dutch power system cut back on gas use and added clean power output, and so far in 2025 have averaged slightly less than those of Germany. Over the first half of 2025, Dutch wholesale spot power prices have averaged around 90 euros per megawatt hour, according to LSEG. That price is roughly a third more than those in nuclear-powered France, but is lower than the average prices recorded in several other European nations including Italy and most of Eastern Europe. The fact that Dutch power costs have remained in line with the regional average despite sustained reductions to fossil fuel use in electricity generation will likely influence the energy planning of other nations in the region. The successful transition from fossil fuels being the main pillar of the country's electricity system until 2022 to a more minor role in 2025 could be seen as a blueprint for other utility networks also keen to cut back on fossil fuel use. And given the country's prowess in rolling out clean energy supplies, Dutch firms with expertise in offshore wind, solar systems and batteries are collaborating with other regional utilities to lift clean power output in other countries. Dutch firms are also pioneering the deployment of green energy to produce green hydrogen, which regional industries are hoping will help decarbonize their power needs and further reduce regional reliance on fossil fuels.

Heat Wave Tightens JKM-TTF Spread, Lifts Global Natural Gas Demand — Summer heat in North Asia continues to drive demand for spot LNG cargoes and narrow the spread between natural gas prices in the region and those in Europe. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) has kept pace with Asian buying. The prompt contract jumped 5% last week, keeping it within a range of $1.00 or less to the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), which has held steady around $13/MMBtu. “For U.S. exporters, most LNG cargoes continue to flow toward the Atlantic Basin, though Asia may become an option if prices in the Asia-Pacific rise higher than that of European LNG delivery prices,” said Rystad Energy analyst Masanori Odaka.

Russia, China Discuss Expanding Gas Supplies Amid Pipeline Uncertainty (Reuters) — The heads of Russia's Gazprom and China's energy company CNPC discussed future Russian gas supplies to China during talks in Beijing, Gazprom said on July 11, as Moscow seeks stronger ties with the world's biggest energy consumer. Russia, the holder of world's largest gas reserves, has diverted oil supplies from Europe to India and China since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022. At the same time, Russia's diversification of pipeline natural gas from the European Union has been slow. It started gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline in the end of 2019 and plans to reach the pipeline's annual exporting capacity of 38 billion cubic meters this year. Russia and China have also agreed on exports of 10 Bcm of gas from Russia's Pacific island of Sakhalin starting from 2027. However, years of talks about the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would ship 50 Bcm of gas per year to China via Mongolia, have yet to be concluded as the two sides disagree over issues such as the gas price. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to travel to China in early September to participate in celebrations marking the anniversary of the victory over Japan in World War II. The trip follows Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow in May.

China’s June Crude Imports Jump as Iranian and Saudi Volumes Surge -China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.14 million barrels per day in June, marking a 7.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a sharp rise in deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iran, Reuters reported on Monday. The spike reflects both restocking after refinery maintenance and opportunistic buying by independent refiners amid steep discounts on sanctioned barrels.According to China’s General Administration of Customs, cited by Reuters, total imports reached 49.89 million tonnes in June, the highest monthly volume since March. Analysts at Oilchem and Kpler cited refinery restarts and attractive Persian Gulf pricing as key drivers, particularly for China’s “teapot” refineries in Shandong, according to Reuters. Saudi crude shipments to China rose by 845,000 barrels per day to 1.78 million bpd. Iranian imports also climbed, with traders estimating a 445,000 bpd increase, despite ongoing U.S. sanctions. Many of these flows were channeled through independent refiners taking advantage of discounts of $2 to $3.50 per barrel below Brent.The renewed Iranian flows come as the Trump administration considers adjustments to existing sanctions enforcement, a development closely tracked by global crude markets. Analysts warn that any official easing, either via waivers or de facto tolerance, could further widen the gap between sanctioned and mainstream barrels, reshaping Asia’s sourcing landscape.For global markets, China’s behavior is pivotal. Increased Gulf intake by the world’s largest importer could tighten Atlantic Basin availability and constrain shipments to Europe heading into Q4. Spot market volatility is expected to rise if Chinese storage approaches capacity or if buying slows abruptly later in the year. While Saudi Arabia benefits from consistent contract volumes, Iran’s return highlights the limits of enforcement and the shifting structure of global oil flows. With Chinese refiners moving aggressively to lock in summer barrels, attention now turns to Beijing’s July tender activity and how Washington will respond to a deepening sanctions workaround.

Oil edges up, investors eye Trump statement on Russia --Oil prices nudged higher on Monday, adding to gains of more than 2% from Friday, as investors eyed further U.S. sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies, but a ramp-up in Saudi output and ongoing tariff uncertainty limited gains. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $70.51 a barrel by 0400 GMT, extending a 2.51% gain on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed to $68.59, up 14 cents, after settling 2.82% higher in the previous session.U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will send Patriot air defence missiles to Ukraine. He is due to make a "major statement" on Russia on Monday. Last week, Brent rose 3%, while WTI had a weekly gain of around 2.2%, after the International Energy Agency said the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, with demand supported by peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power generation.

Oil Futures Dip Amid US Tariff Threats on Russia -- Oil futures reversed earlier gains on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Russia with 100% secondary tariffs if an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is not reached in 50 days. Trump also confirmed that the U.S. will send weapons to NATO to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian attacks. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract fell by $1.35 to $67.10 bbl after hitting $69.65 bbl early in the morning, while the ICE Brent futures contract for August delivery decreased by $1.05 to $69.31 bbl. Downstream, August RBOB gasoline futures contract slid by $0.0186 to $2.1684 gallon, and the front-month ULSD futures contract fell $0.0622 to $2.3852 gallon. In contrast, the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.246 points to 97.820 against a basket of foreign currencies. The announcement of additional sanctions on Russia came during a meeting with NATO officials at the White House today. Trump's statements also came just two weeks after the U.S. halted military aid shipments to Ukraine -- aid that had been committed by the previous administration -- in what was the latest sign of the White House's newfound more hawkish stance on Russia. Market participants will focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released Tuesday morning, as analyst have predicted a higher inflation index due to increased tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on China, Canada and Mexico, and other trade partners in recent months. On Saturday, July 12, the Trump administration announced 30% trade tariffs against Mexico and the European Union effective on Aug. 1. "So far, Trump has warned the European Union and 24 nations, including major trading partners like South Korea and Japan, that steeper tariffs will be imposed starting August 1," the AP reported during the weekend.

Imposed Tariffs on U.S. Imports from the European Union, Canada, and Mexico -The oil market erased its early gains and ended the session 2.15% lower as the market weighed perceived tightness against President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will impose 30% tariffs on U.S. imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico beginning August 1st and his threat for sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. The crude market traded higher and rallied to a high of $69.65 early in the morning, supported by news that China’s crude oil imports in June increased 7.4% on the year to 12.14 million bpd, the highest since August 2023. However, the oil market erased its gains and sold off sharply by the early afternoon. The market was pressured by concerns that President Trump’s tariff policies will slow global economic growth and energy demand. Also, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. was giving Russia 50 days to agree on a peace deal with Ukraine to avoid new sanctions, leaving traders questioning whether the U.S. would impose steep tariffs on countries that continue to trade with Russia. The crude market extended its losses to $1.58 as it posted a low of $66.87 ahead of the close. The August WTI contract settled down $1.47 at $66.98 and continued to trade lower, posting a new low of $66.84 in the post settlement period. The September Brent contract settled down $1.15 at $69.21. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 5.76 cents at $2.3898 and the RB market settling down 2.16 cents at $2.1654. U.S. President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced a plan on Monday to rearm Ukraine with missiles and other weaponry in its fight to fend off Russian invaders and warned of severe tariffs if Russia will not end the war. President Trump said he would impose “very severe tariffs” on Russia if no deal is made in 50 days. A White House official said President Trump was referring to 100% tariffs on Russian exports as well as so-called secondary sanctions, which target third countries that buy a country’s exports. Hardline Iranian lawmaker Esmail Kosari said any closure of the Strait of Hormuz was still under review but no decision has yet been made. The possibility of Iran closing the waterway was speculated upon during the 12-day air war between Israel and Iran last month. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 171,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 18th, increasing available refining capacity by 24,000 bpd. OPEC’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, said OPEC expects “very strong” oil demand in the third quarter and a tight supply-demand balance in the following months. Russia’s RIA news agency quoted OPEC’s Secretary General as saying on the sidelines of last week’s OPEC seminar in Vienna that the organization expected demand growth of 1.3 million bpd year on year in 2025 due to a strong global economy.

Oil falls as Trump gives Russia 50 days to avoid new sanctions (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down on Monday by more than $1, as investors weighed new threats from U.S. President Donald Trump for sanctions on buyers of Russian oil that may affect global supplies, while still worried about Trump's tariffs. Brent crude futures settled $1.15, or 1.63%, lower to $69.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost $1.47, also 2.15%, to $66.98 Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened to slap new sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal in 50 days. Oil prices rallied early, on expectations that Washington would impose steeper sanctions. But prices retreated as traders weighed whether the U.S. would actually impose steep tariffs on countries that continue to trade with Russia. "The market took it as a negative because there seemed to be a lot of time to negotiate," "The fear of immediate sanctions on Russian oil is further off in the future than the market thought this morning." China and India are among the top destinations for Russian crude oil exports. "The chance of U.S. imposing 100% tariffs on China are slim to none... It would force inflation to go through the moon," Last week, Trump said he was due to make a "major statement" on Russia on Monday, having expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine. Russia's seaborne oil product exports in June were down 3.4% from May at 8.98 million metric tons, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed. A bipartisan U.S. bill that would hit Russia with sanctions gained momentum last week in Congress. European Union envoys, meanwhile, are on the verge of agreeing an 18th package of sanctions against Russia that would include a lower oil price cap. Investors were also eyeing the outcome of U.S. tariff talks with key trading partners. The European Union and South Korea said on Monday they were working on trade deals with the U.S. that would soften the blow from looming tariffs as Washington threatens to impose hefty duties from August 1. EU member states find Trump's tariff threat "absolutely unacceptable", Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on Monday during a joint press conference with EU's Trade Chief Maros Sefcovic in Brussels. Providing some support, China's June oil imports increased 7.4% on the year to 12.14 million barrels per day, the highest since August 2023, according to customs data released on Monday. "There is still a perceived tightness in the market, with most of the inventory build in China and on ships, and not in key locations," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. The International Energy Agency said last week the global oil market may be tighter than it appears in the short term. However, the agency boosted its forecast for supply growth this year, while trimming its outlook for growth in demand, implying a market in surplus.

Oil Extends Losses as Markets Don’t Buy Trump’s Russia Sanction Threat -Oil prices extended Monday’s losses into early Tuesday trade in Asia as President Trump’s threat to sanction Russian supply in 50 days if Putin continues to resist a peace deal in Ukraine eased concerns about an immediate impact on Moscow’s oil exports. Early on Tuesday in Asian trade, the U.S. benchmark,WTI Crude, fell by 0.85% at $66.43, and the international benchmark, Brent Crude, was down by 0.72% at $68.73 per barrel.Brent prices fell below $70 a barrel this week, as the markets continue to seek direction amid the return of President Trump’s tariff threats on a number of countries and jurisdictions, including Mexico, the EU, Japan, and South Korea.Strong seasonal demand and a rebound in China’s refinery throughput in June provided support to oil prices, offsetting much of the tariff-related concerns about the global economy. Near-term fundamentals appear supportive, with OPEC+ adding fewer barrels than the headline figures suggest and demand holding up during the peak summer travel season.Supply concerns were somewhat eased on Monday after President Trump gave Russia a 50-day deadline to work on a peace deal in Ukraine. Otherwise, Moscow faces new sanctions on its oil exports.Traders, however, appear to be little convinced that there will be sanctions soon to reduce global oil supply.Brent prices were down early on Tuesday in Asia after settling 1.6% lower on Monday, as President Trump’s “major statement” on Russia was not an immediate sanctions action by the U.S. The President threatened to slap secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if Putin fails to make a peace deal.“The lack of any immediate action and the belief that these threats won’t be carried out help to explain the market reaction,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday. Considering the potential large global market deficit in case of 100% tariffs and President Trump’s desire for low oil prices, ING analysts don’t believe Trump “would be keen to follow through with this threat.”

50-Day Deadline Raises Hopes of Avoiding Sanctions on Russia --The oil market traded lower on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided and eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption. The crude market traded lower in overnight trading as the possible sanctions have been sidelined for the next couple of weeks. The market later retraced some of its losses and traded to a high of $67.13 early in the morning. In a yo-yo fashion, the market once again gave up its gains and posted a low of $66.22 by mid-day and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The August WTI contract ended the session 46 cents lower at $66.52, while the September Brent contract settled down 50 cents at $68.71. However, the product markets settled higher, with the heating oil market ending the session up 1.54 cents at $2.4052 and the RB market ending the session up 42 points at $2.1696. OPEC said the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year despite trade conflicts and refineries’ crude intake would remain elevated to meet an increase in summer travel, helping to support the demand outlook. In a monthly report, OPEC left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026 after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was strong. OPEC said global refinery crude intake posted a sharp increase of 2.1 million bpd in June from May as refiners returned from maintenance, a sign of a stronger oil market and added that throughput was likely to remain high. OPEC’s demand forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters. OPEC’s report also showed that in June OPEC+ produced 41.56 million bpd, up 349,000 bpd from May. This is slightly less than the 411,000 bpd increased called for by the group’s increase in its June quotas. The actual hike was smaller than the headline increase in quotas partly because some nations, such as Iraq, cut output as part of a pledge to make further reductions for earlier pumping above targets.According to a BBC interview published on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not done” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, hours after he said he was disappointed in Putin and threatened Moscow with sanctions.Three sources close to the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages on his terms for peace, unfazed by Donald Trump’s threats of tougher sanctions, and added that his territorial demands may widen as Russian forces advance.The Financial Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to step up deep strikes on Russian territory, even asking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy whether he could strike Moscow if the U.S. provided long-range weapons. The Port of Corpus Christi said it moved 51.1 million tons of commodities through the Corpus Christi Ship Channel in the second quarter of 2025. It said crude oil shipments in the first half of 2025 totaled 65.2 million tons, up more than 3.8% over the same period last year. It said LNG volumes increased nearly 10.8% to 8.5 million tons.

Oil slips as Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia eases supply fears (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped by less than 1% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption. Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.71 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $66.52. "The focus has been on Donald Trump. There was some fear he might target Russia with sanctions immediately and now he has given another 50 days," said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Those fears about an imminent additional tightness in the market have dissipated. That's the main story." Oil prices had climbed on the potential sanctions but later gave up gains as the 50-day deadline raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided. In the event the proposed sanctions are implemented, "it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market," analysts at ING said in a note. "China, India and Turkey are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. They would need to weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude oil against the cost of their exports to the U.S.," ING said. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday and had said on Saturday that he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to similar warnings for other countries. Tariffs raise the risk of slower economic growth, which could reduce global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower. Also on the tariff front, Brazil will work to get the U.S. to reverse "as quickly as possible" the 50% tariff it announced on all goods from that country, but does not rule out asking for more time to negotiate, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said. China's economy slowed in the second quarter, data showed on Tuesday, with markets bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall and consumer confidence remains low. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said economic growth in China came in above consensus, largely because of strong fiscal support and the frontloading of production and exports to beat U.S. tariffs. "The Chinese economic data was supportive overnight," Elsewhere, oil demand is set to remain "very strong" through the third quarter, keeping the market balanced in the near term, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. In U.S. supply, U.S. crude stocks rose by 839,000 barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Oil Prices Dip As Demand Slows, OPEC+ Ramps Up Output --Oil prices declined on Wednesday as concerns over slowing global demand combined with rising OPEC+ production weighed on the market, while uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate path added to the cautious sentiment. Brent crude slipped by 0.17% to $68.17 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased by 0.16% to $65.55 per barrel, extending losses from the previous session. Data released Wednesday showed that US consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, matching expectations, while annual inflation accelerated to 2.7%, its highest level since February. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below forecasts. The uptick in headline inflation tempered expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed in September, although markets still anticipate two rate cuts before year-end. Higher US interest rates typically strengthen the dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and potentially dampening global demand. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported an increase in crude production, adding to supply-side pressures. OPEC’s output rose by 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June to 27.23 million bpd, driven primarily by higher production from Saudi Arabia, which increased output by 173,000 bpd to 9.35 million bpd. In contrast, Iran’s production fell by 62,000 bpd to 3.24 million bpd. Including non-OPEC allies, total OPEC+ production rose by 349,000 bpd in June to 41.56 million bpd, according to the group’s monthly report. Despite the increase in output, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth, projecting a rise of 1.3 million bpd in 2025 to 105.13 million bpd, with most of the growth expected from non-OECD countries. Adding to bearish sentiment, the American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected surge in US crude inventories, which rose by 19.1 million barrels last week against expectations of a 2 million-barrel drawdown. The unexpected buildup raised concerns about weakening demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation. Investors now await official US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration for further direction on market fundamentals. With steady demand projections amid rising supply and signs of softening consumption in key markets, concerns over a potential oversupply in the second half of the year continue to pressure oil prices.

WTI Holds Losses After Surprise Crude Draw As Rig Count Decline Rejects 'Drill, Baby, Drill' -- Crude futures are lower for a third session in a row with the market refocusing on supply and demand balances after putting concerns about U.S. tariffs and Russia sanctions on hold, and API reporting another build in crude (and gasoline) stocks - the third straight weekly rise in inventories.While global crude inventories have been swelling in recent months, the bulk of the accumulation has come in markets that have relatively little impact on futures prices, according to Morgan Stanley.The premiums traders are paying for more immediate supplies, a pattern known as backwardation, signal strong short-term demand.API

• Crude +800k
• Cushing +100k
• Gasoline +1.9mm
• Distillates +800k

DOE

• Crude -3.86mm
• Cushing +213k
• Gasoline +3.39mm
• Distillates +4.17mm

The official data reversed API's guess with a sizable Crude inventory draw (ending the short streak of builds), but products stocks soared...For the first time since Sept 2023, the SPR saw a drawdown as DoE Authorizes Exxon To Tap SPR To Avert Refinery Disruptions... US Crude production remains at or near record highs as rig counts continue to tumble despite Trump's 'drill baby drill' mantra... WTI was trading lower ahead of the official data and shows no signs of life post...

The Weekly Petroleum Stocks Report Reinforced Concerns Over Demand -The crude market ended the session lower as the weekly petroleum stocks report reinforced concerns over demand. In overnight trading, the oil market traded higher on an improved demand outlook from China. Traders and analysts said Chinese state-owned refiners are increasing their production after completing maintenance to meet higher third quarter fuel demand and rebuild diesel and gasoline stocks. Barclays estimated that China’s oil demand in the first half of the year increased by 400,000 bpd on the year to 17.2 million bpd. The oil market traded to a high of $67.01 in overnight trading before it gave up its gains ahead of the release of the EIA report. It sold off to a low of $65.42 in light of the EIA report showing a unexpected build in gasoline stocks of over 3.3 million barrels, with demand easing to 8.5 million bpd, and a larger than expected build in distillates stocks of 4 million barrels on the week. However, the oil market retraced most of its losses during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract settled down 14 cents at $66.38 and the September Brent contract settled down 19 cents at $68.52. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 1.37 cents at $2.3915 and the RB market settling down 2.56 cents at $2.1440. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with the United States, but he is in no rush to talk. Several oilfields in Iraq’s Kurdistan semi-autonomous region halted about 140,000 to 150,000 bpd of production as fields infrastructure was significantly damaged following a third day of drone attacks on Wednesday. It was not certain who had carried out the attacks and no group has claimed responsibility for them. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 245,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 18th, cutting available refining capacity by 50,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 171,000 bpd in the week ending July 25th. Data from the EPA showed that the U.S. generated more renewable blending credits in June than May. It reported that about 1.25 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in June, compared with about 1.22 billion in May. It also reported that credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending increased to 629 million in June from 602 million May. U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, after a Bloomberg report that the president is likely to do so soon sparked a decline in stocks and the dollar and a rise in Treasury yields. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia said it produced 9.752 million bpd of crude oil in June, 385,000 bpd more than permitted under its OPEC+ agreement. Saudi Arabia called the increase a temporary response to the brief war between Israel and Iran that worried markets and increased fears that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be disrupted. The excess crude was moved into storage outside the region to guarantee uninterrupted supplies in case hostilities escalated.

Oil Prices Rise on Tight Summer Market Oil prices rose early on Thursday amid signs that inventories are low in the peak summer demand season and resurfacing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.As of 8:33 a.m. EDT on Thursday, the U.S. benchmark,WTI Crude, was up by 0.98% at $67.01 per barrel. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was trading at $68.88, up by 0.53% on the day.Tight markets and falling U.S. crude oil inventories supported oil prices early on Thursday, despite the volatility caused by the uncertainty about the U.S. tariffs and trade deals and the pace of global economic growth.On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.9 million barrels during the week ending July 11. Commercial stockpiles at 422.2 million barrels are currently about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that the market balance is tight in the peak summer consumption season.“Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances,” the agency said in the report.“Prompt time spreads are in steep backwardation and refinery margins remain healthy despite implied stock builds of 1.74 mb/d in 2Q25.”Prices were also supported on Thursday by drone attacks on oilfields in Kurdistan, which curtailed about 200,000 bpd, as well as the Israeli strikes into Syria.Yet, price gains were capped by the market anxiety amid uncertainties about the U.S. trade deals. “Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of U.S. tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth,” Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, told Reuters. Analysts expect lower oil prices toward the end of the year when peak summer demand will have waned.

Drones Struck Iraqi Kurdistan Oil Fields - The oil market on Thursday continued to retrace Wednesday’s early losses and rallied higher on a resurgence of Middle East risk premium after drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for a fourth day. Oil output in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has been cut by between 140,000 and 150,000 bpd, more than half of the region’s normal output of about 280,000 bpd. The market posted a low of $66.29 in overnight trading before it breached its previous high at $67.01 and rallied higher throughout the session. The oil market, which was well supported by drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Kurdistan and Israel’s attacks in Syria, extended its gains to $1.25 as it rallied to a high of $67.63 ahead of the close. The August WTI contract settled up $1.16 at $67.54 and continued to trend higher, posting a high of $67.69 in the post settlement period. The September Brent contract settled up $1.00 at $69.52. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up $7.31 cents at $2.4646 and the RB market settling up 2.64 cents at $2.1704. The Kurdistan region’s counter-terrorism service said a drone attack targeted an oilfield operated by Norwegian oil and gas firm DNO in Tawke, in the Zakho Administration area of northern Iraq. The attack is the second on the DNO-operated field since a wave of drone attacks began early this week. DNO, which operates the Tawke and Peshkabour oilfields in the Zakho area that borders Turkey, temporarily suspended production at the fields following explosions that caused no injuries. This week’s drone attacks have reduced oil output from oilfields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region by between 140,000 to 150,000 bpd, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns. On Wednesday, the U.S. State Department condemned recent drone attacks targeting oil fields in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. The State Department said the United States condemns violence in Syria, calling on all parties to step back and engage in meaningful dialogue that leads to a lasting ceasefire. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that Washington was actively engaging all constituencies in Syria to navigate toward calm and continued discussions on integration and called on the Syrian government to lead the path forward. The State Department said the U.S. did not support recent Israeli action in Syria and added that the U.S. is engaging with both Israel and Syria.The Kremlin said Russia was continuing to analyze U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks regarding possible secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian exports. The TASS state news agency reported that former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia had no plans to attack NATO or Europe but added if the West escalated the Ukraine war any further, then Moscow should respond and, if necessary, launch preemptive strikes. NBC News reported, citing current and former U.S. officials, that a new U.S. assessment has found that American strikes in June mostly destroyed one of three Iranian nuclear sites, while the other two were not as badly damaged.

Oil jumps $1 after further drone attacks on Iraq oil fields (Reuters) - Oil prices rose $1 on Thursday after drones struck Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for a fourth day, pointing to continued risk in the volatile region. Brent crude futures settled at $69.52 a barrel, up $1.00, or 1.46%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $67.54 a barrel, up $1.16, or 1.75%. Officials pointed to Iran-backed militias as the likely source of attacks this week on the oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan, although no group has claimed responsibility. Oil output in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has been slashed by between 140,000 and 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said, more than half the region's normal output of about 280,000 bpd. "Some of the gains are reaction to drone attacks in Iraq," . "It shows how vulnerable oil supplies are to attacks using low technology." Markets have also been jittery while waiting for the imposition of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, which could shift oil supplies from the United States to India and China, Lipow said. Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their U.S. tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union. "Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of U.S. tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth," U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, government data on Wednesday showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 552,000-barrel draw. Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil. Markets were continuing to look for signals of tighter supply or higher demand, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico was not expected to develop into a named storm as it makes its way west before moving onshore in Louisiana later on Thursday. Rainfall totals in Southeast Louisiana are forecast to be about four inches (10 cm), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Drone Attacks Disrupt Kurdish Output but Tariff Fears Cap Market Reaction -Oil prices were ticking up slightly but largely flat in Asian trading Friday as supply losses from Iraqi pipeline disruptions were offset by renewed demand concerns tied to U.S. tariff threats against key Asian economies.Brent crude edged up to $69.78 and WTI was trading at $67.75 at 2.25 a.m. ET, with both benchmarks holding narrow gains despite broader market uncertainty.Multiple drone strikes near oil infrastructure in Iraqi Kurdistan this week forced the suspension of production at several fields. The attacks disrupted operations and prompted a temporary halt in output. No group has claimed responsibility, but the incidents mark the most serious disruption in the region since April.The latest strikes have shut in at least 150,000 barrels per day of oil production across multiple sites, with some estimates nearing 200,000 bpd of shut-ins. The fields are operated by international consortia under contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).Energy officials in Kurdistan told Reuters that the region's output stood at approximately 285,000?bpd before production was slashed by up to 150,000?bpd due to the attacks, cutting output nearly in half Tariff warfare, however, appears to be in the driver's seat with respect to oil markets this week, overtaking fears of supply shut-ins in Iraqi Kurdistan. Growing fears of a tariff escalation between the U.S. and multiple Asian exporters have added pressure to fuel demand forecasts. With global growth already showing signs of slowing, the possibility of another round of tit-for-tat trade measures has weighed more heavily on oil sentiment than localized supply shocks. Reuters cited analysts on Friday as saying that the muted price response to the Kurdistan outages suggests markets are increasingly discounting temporary disruptions unless they escalate or coincide with broader geopolitical risk.

Oil Prices Climb as EU Sanctions Target Russian Trade --Oil prices rose on Friday after the EU adopted its 18thsanctions package against Russia, lowering the price cap, targeting Russian oil trade, and closing a loophole that has so far allowed EU imports of fuels processed from Russian crude. As of 9:50 a.m. EDT on Friday, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, rose by 1.36% to $68.51 per barrel. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was trading higher by 1.19%, and returned above the $70 a barrel mark, at $70.39.The European Union lowered the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.60 from $60 per barrel, sanctioned another 100 shadow fleet tankers, as well as traders of Russian crude oil and a major customer of the shadow fleet – a refinery in India with Rosneft as its main shareholder. The EU is also banning the import of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and coming from any third country – with the exception of Canada, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This is the EU’s attempt to prevent Russia’s crude oil from reaching the EU market through the back door. It is this provision in the sanctions package that’s likely to have the biggest impact on the markets in the near term, analysts say. Low fuel inventories the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub and the ban on imports of fuels made from Russian oil raised the gasoil futures in Europe, which has been importing an estimated nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of fuels from India and Turkey—two of the few, but major, buyers of Russian crude. President Trump on Monday gave Russia a 50-day deadline to work on a peace deal in Ukraine. Otherwise, Moscow faces new sanctions on its oil exports.Traders, however, appear to be little convinced that there will be U.S. sanctions soon to reduce global oil supply. They are also unconvinced that Europe’s lowered price cap and the blacklisting of another 100 ‘shadow fleet’ tankers could be easily enforced, especially without the support of the U.S. However, the tight fuel market, the diesel market in particular, is signaling a strong start to peak demand season, lifting oil prices. Near-term fundamentals appear supportive, with OPEC+ adding fewer barrels than the headline figures suggest and demand holding up during the peak summer travel season.

Oil steadies as mixed US economic and tariff news offset new Russia sanctions (Reuters) - Crude oil futures were little changed on Friday on mixed U.S. economic and tariff news and worries about oil supplies following the European Union's latest sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $69.28 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.3%, to end at $67.34. That put both crude benchmarks down about 2% for the week. In the United States, single-family homebuilding dropped to an 11-month low in June as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty hampered home purchases, suggesting residential investment contracted again in the second quarter.In another report, however, U.S. consumer sentiment improved in July, while inflation expectations continued to decline. Lower inflation should make it easier for the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, which could cut consumers' borrowing costs and boost economic growth and oil demand. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% in any deal with the European Union, the Financial Times reported on Friday, adding that the administration is now looking at a reciprocal tariff rate that exceeds 10%, even if a deal is reached. "Currently envisioned reciprocal tariffs, coupled with announced sectoral levies, could push the U.S. effective tariff rate above 25%, surpassing 1930s peaks ... In coming months, the tariffs should increasingly be manifest in inflation," analysts at U.S. bank Citigroup's Citi Research said in a note. Rising inflation can raise prices for consumers and weaken economic growth and oil demand. In Europe, the EU reached an agreement on an 18th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine, which includes measures aimed at dealing further blows to Russia's oil and energy industries. "New sanctions on Russian oil from the U.S. and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction," analysts at Capital Economics said in a note. "This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and a belief that new European sanctions will be no more effective than previous attempts." The EU will also no longer import any petroleum products made from Russian crude, though the ban will not apply to imports from Norway, Britain, the U.S., Canada and Switzerland, EU diplomats said. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also said on X that the EU has designated the largest Rosneft (ROSN.MM), opens new tab oil refinery in India as part of the measures. India is the biggest importer of Russian crude while Turkey is the third-biggest, Kpler data shows. "This shows the market fears the loss of diesel supply into Europe, as India had been a source of barrels,"

Houthi Attacks Trigger Unpaid-Debt Shutdown of Israel’s Eilat Port -Israel’s only Red Sea port at Eilat is on the verge of a full commercial halt as municipal authorities freeze the operator’s accounts, citing unpaid taxes and concession fees totaling around NIS 10 million (~$3 million). The financial crisis reflects the sharp fallout from nearly 20 months of Houthi missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea, which have slashed port revenues by over 90%, according to the Times of Israel.The closure, which is set to begin on July 20, has been confirmed by both Israel’s Ports Authority and National Emergency Authority, with additional reporting byMarine Insight. Regional sources, including Middle East Eye, highlight that municipal authorities froze the port’s accounts after months of deferred payments and repeated shortfalls, with throughput effectively collapsed since late 2023.“The Eilat port has strategic national importance to Israel as the country’s southern gateway on the Red Sea for maritime trade with the Far East, India, and Australia, and constitutes a significant economic anchor for the city and its residents,” Eilat port CEO Gideon Golber told The Times of Israel. “The closure of a strategic seaport in Israel would be a huge international success for the Houthis that none of our enemies have ever achieved.”From an energy-sector standpoint, the shutdown impairs not only general trade volumes but also strategic flows such as potash exports and potential crude oil movements via the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline. Shipping firms now face costly rerouting either to Mediterranean terminals or via the Cape of Good Hope. However, that alternative adds over 6,000 nautical miles and days to transit times.Analysts say the financial unraveling at Eilat reflects the wider vulnerability of Red Sea logistics infrastructure under massive and lasting pressure. With no clear resolution in sight, maritime risk premiums are rising, and Israeli authorities face a dilemma: absorb emergency losses to sustain operations or abandon the Red Sea corridor altogether. Either choice carries implications for regional energy supply chains and long-term port viability.

Drone Attack Shuts Down Oil Field Run by US Company in Iraqi Kurdistan - --A drone attack in Iraqi Kurdistan on Tuesday suspended operations at an oil field operated by a US company, marking the latest in a series of attacks in the region.HKN Energy, the US firm operating the Sarsang oil field, reported an explosion at 7:00 am local time, followed by a fire. “Operations at the affected facility have been suspended until the site is secured,” the company said. Workers at the oil field told Rudaw that it was targeted by a drone, and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) denounced the attack as “an act of terrorism against the Kurdistan Region’s vital economic infrastructure.” The US Embassy in Iraq also denounced the attack. A day earlier, two drones targeted a different oil field in the area, and another was intercepted at the Erbil airport, which houses US troops. The airport has come under attack several times in recent weeks, and so far, there have been no casualties. No group has taken responsibility for the spate of drone attacks. The KRG has blamed the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of Iraqi Shia militias that are part of the Iraqi government’s security forces, but Baghdad has denied the accusation.

Israel Transfers Important West Bank Mosque to Settler Control - The Ibrahimi Mosque in the West Bank is incredibly important to Muslims dating back over 2,000 years. Israel occupied the mosque in 1967 and converted half of it to an important Jewish shrine called the Cave of the Patriarchs. The site has been a source of tension in the area around the city of Hebron, and that is likely about to get even worse.That’s because the Israeli government has announced they are stripping the Palestinian Hebron municipality of control over the mosque and handing it over to a settler council. Details about why are still emerging, but claims plans for “structural changes” to the ancient site, apparently to be facilitated by the Kiryat Arba settlement’s religious council.The site is in the Old City part of Hebron, called al-Khalil by Palestinians. A substantial Israeli settlement has been established in the neighborhood, with an estimated 400 settlers and about 1,500 Israeli occupation forces manning checkpoints across the neighborhood to keep the settlers protected.The Palestinian Foreign Ministry referred to it as a flagrant violation of international law and urged UNESCO to intervene before it led to “grave repercussions.” This is the first change since 1994, when Israel changed control of the mosque to grant 63% to Jewish worshipers and only 37% to Muslims.That change, enhancing Jewish control over the mosque site, came immediately following a 1994 massacre, when Jewish-American settler Baruch Goldstein entered the Muslim side in an Israeli military uniform with a gun and opened fire on worshipers, killing 29 and wounding 125 others.The massacre was roundly condemned by Israelis at the time, though Goldstein has subsequently been lionized by some of the more violent settler groups, and indeed his tomb has itself become a site for pilgrimage by some settler on Purim, because that was the holiday during which the massacre took place.Itamar Ben Gvir, the current Israeli National Security Minister, is one such massacre enthusiast, andappeared in a video praising Goldstein while calling for more massacres of Palestinians.Israeli media appears generally supportive of the idea of taking the mosque and placing it under settler control, saying it will “enhance the experience for Jewish worshipers.”

Israeli Attacks Kill 87 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours, Aid Seekers Killed in Stampede - Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Wednesday that Israeli attacks killed 87 Palestinians and wounded 252 people over the previous 24-hour period, as relentless US-backed Israeli strikes continued to pound the Strip.The Health Ministry said that another seven bodies were recovered from the rubble. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the streets, where ambulance and civil defense crews are unable to reach them at this time,” the ministry wrote on X.Also on Wednesday, at least 21 people were killed during an incident near an aid distribution site that’s operated by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) in Khan Younis, southern Gaza.Witnesses told The Associated Press that American mercenaries who work for the GHF used pepper spray and stun grenades on a large crowd of Palestinians near the entrance of the GHF site before it opened, causing panic. Other witnesses told Al Jazeera that GHF guards used tear gas on the crowd, and the Health Ministry said at least 15 people died due to being crushed by the crowd and “suffocation” from the gas.“We were running like everyone else. We got to the gate and realized that it was closed, thousands of people were there,” a witness told Al Jazeera. “The Americans fired tear gas into the crowd to disperse them which caused a stampede and many people died while being crushed by the crowd.”The Health Ministry said that the incident marked the first time “deaths have been recorded due to suffocation and the intense stampede of citizens at aid distribution centers.”

British Surgeon in Gaza Reports 'Unprecedented Malnutrition,' Says IDF Snipers Targeting Aid Seekers - Nick Maynard, a British surgeon currently working at the Nasser Hospital in Gaza, has told The Telegraphthat Palestinians in the besieged enclave are facing “unprecedented malnutrition” due to the Israeli blockade and that Israeli snipers are targeting people seeking food near aid distribution sites. Maynard said that the aid sites run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) were “death traps” and that IDF snipers were targeting “certain body parts on different days, such as the head, legs, or genitals.” Nearly 900 aid seekers have been killed by Israeli forces since the GHF began operating in Gaza. The British surgeon said that he had operated on many young teenage boys who were wounded near aid sites. “A twelve-year-old boy I was operating on died from his injuries on the operating table – he had been shot through the chest,” he said.Maynard said that severe malnutrition has been contributing to preventable deaths among Palestinians receiving surgery. “The malnutrition I’m seeing here is indescribably bad. It’s much, much worse now than a year ago,” he said. “The repairs that we carry out fall to pieces, patients get terrible infections, and they die. I have never had so many patients die because they can’t get enough food to recover,” he added. Babies have been starving to death in Gaza due to Israeli restrictions on baby formula, as malnourished mothers cannot produce breast milk. Maynard said that the Nasser Hospital is also running out of intravenous liquid fluids used to treat severely malnourished children and that four infants died of malnutrition at the hospital last week.“I saw a seven-month-old who looked like a newborn. The expression ‘skin and bones’ doesn’t do it justice,” Maynard said.The British surgeon also volunteered in Gaza last year and said his visit to the besieged enclave was the worst thing he had ever experienced. “It was much worse than we could possibly have imagined. I couldn’t compare it to anything, it was just like nothing I’ve seen on Earth,” he said at the time.

More Than 500 Killed After Days of Clashes, Executions, and Israeli Airstrikes in Syria's Suwayda - More than 500 people have been killed after days of clashes, massacres, and Israeli airstrikes in Syria’s southern Suwayda province, according to numbers from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Clashes began between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes, with the al-Qaeda-linked Syrian government quickly intervening against the Druze. Among the dead were 154 civilians, including 83 who were “summarily executed by members of the defense and interior ministries.”The SOHR counted the deaths of 243 government personnel, including at least 15 who were killed by Israeli airstrikes, 79 Druze fighters, and 18 Bedouin fighters. Three members of the Bedouin tribes were also ” summarily executed by Druze fighters.”The executions of Druze follow a pattern of mass killings of civilians by the new Syrian government, which is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, who rebranded in recent years to gain international support. His group of Jihadists, known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, took power in Damascus in December 2024 after ousting former President Bashar al-Assad.Sharaa claimed on Thursday that he would “protect” the Druze minority and that there would be accountability for “those who transgressed and abused our Druze people because they are under the protection and responsibility of the state.” However, there has been no accountability for the more than 1,500 civilians, mainly Alawites, who were massacred by government-linked fighters in March.Sharaa said that government forces “succeeded in restoring stability and expelling outlaw factions in Suwayda, despite Israeli interventions” and said Israel was “sowing discord” by launching airstrikes.Syrian government troops mostly withdrew from the area, though the government on Thursday accused the Druze of violating the ceasefire, suggesting that the fighting may not be over. The Syrian presidency accused Druze forces of conducting “horrific violence” against Bedouin civilians.

Latest South Syria Ceasefire Crumbles, At Least 638 Killed - Fighting between the Druze and Bedouins in Syria’s Suwayda Governorate continues to rage, despite thesecond ceasefire of the week being declared on Wednesday. The toll in the fighting and killing since Sunday is now up to at least 638, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.The fighting started Sunday in the Bedouin neighborhood of Maqus, with both sides claiming tit-for-tat kidnappings, eventually leading Druze forces into the area and the locals called nearby Bedouin tribes. That escalated quickly across the governorate, and now both sides are trading blame for respective massacres in the area, and given the enormous death toll it’s not unlikely that both are accurate. The Bedouins, backed by Syrian government forces, were accused to executing Druze several times in the area, while Syrian state media is reporting a large massacre in a hospital by forces loyal to a Druze cleric. The death tolls overall split among hundreds of civilians, hundreds of combatants, and even hundreds of Syrian Defense Ministry forces that got attacked by Israel when trying to enter the region in defiance of Israel’s “ban” on Syria deploying troops to southern Syria.Israel reiterated on Thursday that the ban remained in place, and Prime Minister Netanyahu bragged that the Wednesday ceasefire was only achieved because of Israeli force. Now that the ceasefire seems to be failing, Israel announced on Friday it is allowing Syrian troops to go back to the area for 48 hours to try to tamp down the violence.Syrian troops are said to be being redeployed. Whether that’s going to actually slow the violence remains to be seen, as the Syrian troops are accused of participating in summary executions and other violence against the Druze.Fighting in going on outside of the city of Suwayda in nearby villages, with more and more forces massing on each side. The Bedouins are reportedly preparing a counter-attack against Suwayda itself after seizing several towns and villages on the outskirts.The death toll is likely even higher than is being reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. One hospital in Suwayda alone claims to have received more than 400 bodies since Monday. The actual toll may not ultimately be known for some time, but one thing is clear, it continues to rise and this situation is far from resolved.