Focus on Fracking

oil prices hit a six month high, natural gas prices hit a 2 year high; the largest drop in natural gas supplies in 51 weeks; US commercial crude inventories were at a 33 week low; gasoline inventories were at a forty-six week high, distillates inventories were at a fifty-one week high; Alaska’s oil production was at a 23 month high

US oil prices finished higher for a fourth straight week on concerns that global oil supplies would tighten following new sanctions on Russian exports…after rising 3.5% to $76.57 a barrel last week after the Biden administration imposed new sanctions on Russian oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders and ports, hoping to further complicate the incoming administration's push for peace in Ukraine, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for February delivery rose more than $1 on Asian markets on Monday, as US sanctions on Russia were expected to reduce oil exports to key buyers like India and China, tightening supply, and continued to trend higher in New York trading on expectations that the sanctions on Russian oil would force buyers in China and India to seek other suppliers in the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, increasing prices and shipping costs, and settled $2.25 higher at a five month high of $78.82 a barrel, as traders assessed the potential hit to supplies from a further tightening of U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil sector….oil prices eased on Asian markets on Tuesday following 3 days of sharp gains, but remained near four-month highs, as the impact of fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil remained the market's key focus, then slid to a low of $77.41 by mid-day in New York, pressured by the news that Israel and Hamas were finalizing the terms of a ceasefire deal, and settled $1.32 lower at $77.50 a barrel after the EIA forecast steady U.S. oil demand in 2025 while lifting its forecast for supply…oil prices slid in overnight trading as traders awaited news of a possible Israeli-Hamas ceasefire deal, then traded higher on Wednesday morning after a weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a decline in oil inventories in the US for the week ending January 10, then rallied sharply following the release of better-than-expected US CPI data, fueling optimism about potential Fed rate cuts, and settled $2.54 higher at a six month high of $80.04 a barrel, supported by a large draw from U.S. crude stockpiles, and by potential supply disruptions caused by new U.S. sanctions on Russia….oil prices retreated on overseas markets on Thursday, as traders took profits after oil had hit multi-month peaks in the previous session, then fell further in New York trading after Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal following 15 months of war, and settled $1.36 lower at $78.68 a barrel as Yemen's Houthi militia were also expected to halt attacks on ships in the Red Sea…oil prices climbed in Asian trading on Friday, driven by upbeat Chinese economic data that exceeded expectations and lifted market sentiment, but turned south in US trading to settle 80 cents lower at $77.88 a barrel on expectations of a halt in attacks by Yemen's Houthi militia on ships in the Red Sea following the Gaza ceasefire deal and on uncertainty over Donald Trump's moves on energy policy ahead of his Monday inauguration, but still ended 1.7% higher for the week

meanwhile, natural gas prices ended lower for the third time in four weeks after hitting a new two year high, on a break in the weeks of below normal temperature forecasts….after rising 18.9% to a two year closing high of $3.989 per mmBTU last week on a series of progressively colder weather forecasts, the price of the benchmark contract for natural gas for February delivery opened 3.3 cents higher Monday morning, on a pullback from a weekend rally to the $4.185 level prior to the open, and held near the $3.98 level till mid-day, before sliding sideways to settle 5.5 cents lower at $3.934 per mmBTU on diminishing freeze-offs, and on lower feedgas flows to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas…natural gas prices then opened 14.6 lower on Tuesday following another night of pre-session volatility, but rallied to an intraday high of $4.059 by 12:55PM, before pulling back to settle 3.4 cents higher at $3.968 per mmBTU, as traders dissected bullish midday weather runs to discern how long near-term icy temperatures could last….natural gas prices opened 3.6 cents higher on Wednesday and spiked to their intraday high of $4.110 by 9:15 AM, on an expected large storage withdrawal, heavy demand, and imminent freeze-offs, and settled 11.5 cents, or 2.9% higher at $4.083 per mmBTU, on forecasts for more frigid weather over the weekend than was previously expected, with the potential to freeze off gas wells and pipes and boost the amount of gas used to heat homes and businesses to a record high…natural gas prices opened 4.1 cents higher on Thursday and traded near $4.120 leading up to the weekly storage report, then pulled back on a report that was line with the market’s expectations, before mounting a late rally to settle 17.5 cents higher at a two year high of $4.258 per mmBTU as frigid weather was bearing down on much of the U.S….natural gas prices soared early Friday before falling off, as overnight weather outlooks diverged, setting up uncertainty ahead of what could be the most frigid winter weather in recent years, then tumbled in profit taking even as cash prices rocketed higher and settled 31.0 cents lower at $3.948 as two-week weather models trended milder, and thus finished 1.0% lower for the week…

The EIA’s natural gas storage report for the week ending January 10th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage fell by 258 billion cubic feet to 3,115 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, the largest weekly drop since January 19, 2024, which left our natural gas supplies 111 billion cubic feet, or 3.4% below the 3,226 billion cubic feet of gas that were in storage on January 10th of last year, but still 77 billion cubic feet, or 2.5% more than the five-year average of 3,038 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been in working storage as of the 10th of January over the most recent five years….the 258 billion cubic foot withdrawal from US natural gas storage for the cited week was in line with the 255 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage that was forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll ahead of the report, but was much more than the 150 billion cubic feet that were pulled out of natural gas storage during the corresponding week in January of 2024, and also much more than the average 128 billion cubic foot withdrawal from natural gas storage that has been typical for the same early January week over the past 5 years…

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 10th indicated that after a decrease in our oil imports and a big increase in our oil exports, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the eighth consecutive week, and for 20th time in twenty-eight weeks, despite a decrease in the amount of oil we refined...Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 304,000 barrels per day to average 6,124,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 479,000 barrels per day over the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,000,000 barrels per day to average 4,078,000 barrels per day, which, when used to offset our imports, meant that the net of our trade of oil worked out to a net import average of 2,046,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending January 10th, an average of 1,304,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. At the same time, transfers to our oil supplies from Alaskan gas liquids, from natural gasoline, from condensate, and from unfinished oils averaged 617,000 barrels per day, while during the same week, production of crude from US wells was 82,000 barrels per day lower at 13,481,000 barrels per day. Hence, our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil, from transfers, and from domestic well production appears to have averaged a total of 16,144,000 barrels per day during the January 10th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,647,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 10th, an average of 255,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil that our refineries reported they were processing during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 209,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US… So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures provided by the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from transfers, from oilfield production, and from storage during the week ending January 10th averaged a rounded 294,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that difference between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just plugged a [ +294,000 ] barrel per day figure onto line 16 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, in order to make the reported data for the supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus indicating there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in the week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed….Moreover, since 691,000 barrels per day of demand for oil could not be accounted for in the prior week’s EIA data, that means there was a 985,000 barrel per day difference between this week’s oil balance sheet error and the EIA’s crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes to supply and demand from that week to this one that are indicated by this week’s report are off by that much, making the week over week changes we have just cited nonsense….However, since most oil traders react to these weekly EIA reports as if they were accurate, and since these weekly figures therefore often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it’s published, and just as it’s watched & believed to be reasonably reliable by most everyone in the industry…(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil supply, see this EIA explainer….there is also an old twitter thread from an EIA administrator addressing these ongoing weekly errors, and what they had once hoped to do about it)

This week’s net average 209,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories came as an average of 280,000 barrels per day were being pulled out of our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while an average of 71,000 barrels per day were being added to our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the fifty-seventh SPR increase in the past sixty-four weeks, following nearly continuous SPR withdrawals over the 39 months prior to the current attempt to refill the SPR… Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports fell to 6,487,000 barrels per day last week, which was 3.3% less than the 6,708,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be 82,000 barrels per day lower at 13,481,000 barrels per day because the EIA’s estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 87,000 barrels per day lower at 13,029,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 5,000 barrels per day higher at a 23 month high of 452,000 barrels per day, all of which was included in the national total.….US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 2.9% higher than that of our pre-pandemic production peak, and was also 39.0% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021.

US oil refineries were operating at 91.7% of their capacity while processing those 16,647,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 10th, down from their 93.3% utilization rate of a week earlier, but not an unusual drop for this time of year….the 16,647,000 barrels of oil per day that were refined this week were virtually equal to the 16,653,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending January 12th of 2024, but 1.9% less than the 16,973,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending January 10th, 2020, when our refinery utilization rate was at 92.2%, then somewhat low for this time of year…

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, the gasoline output from our refineries was higher, increasing by 397,000 barrels per day to 9,280,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 10th, after our refineries’ gasoline output had decreased by 81,000 barrels per day during the prior week.. This week’s gasoline production was 0.9% less than the 9,365,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the week ending January 12th of last year, but virtually matched the gasoline production of 9,281,000 barrels per day during the prepandemic week ending January 10th, 2020….at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 5,183,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 167,000 barrels per day during the prior week. After those production decreases, our distillates output was 5.7% more than the 4,902,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending January 12th of 2023, but 0.4% less than the 5,205,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the pre-pandemic week ending January 10th, 2020…

After this week’s increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the ninth consecutive week, increasing by 5,852,000 barrels to a forty-six week high of 243,566,000 barrels during the week ending January 10th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 6,330,000 barrels to a ten month high during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose again this week as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 156,000 barrels per day to 8,325,000 barrels per day, and as our exports of gasoline rose by 130,000 barrels per day to 973,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 5,000 barrels per day to 450,000 barrels per day.…But after twenty-six gasoline inventory withdrawals over the past forty-nine weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 1.8% below last January 12th’s gasoline inventories of 248,065,000 barrels, and were still slightly below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even with this week’s decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels rose for the seventh time in seventeen weeks, increasing by 3,077,000 barrels to a 51 week high of 132,015,000 barrels during the week ending January 10th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 6,071,000 barrels during the prior week.. Our distillates supplies rose by less this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of domestic demand, rose by 661,000 to 3,839,000 barrels per day, and even as our exports of distillates fell by 205,000 barrels per day to 1,124,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates rose by 19,000 barrels per day to 219,000 barrels per day...After 28 inventory withdrawals over the past 52 weeks, our distillates supplies at the end of the week were 2.0% below the 134,753,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 12th of 2023, and about 4% below the five year average of our distillates inventories for this time of the year…

Finally, after the big increase in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage fell for the 18th time in twenty-six weeks, and for the 30th time over the past year, decreasing by 1,962,000 barrels over the week, from 414,642,000 barrels on January 3rd to a 33 month low of 412,680,000 barrels on January 10th, after our commercial crude supplies had decreased by 959,000 barrels over the prior week… After this week’s decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 6% below the most recent five-year average of commercial oil supplies for this time of year, but were also about 29% above the average of our available crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of January over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the big difference between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories had first topped 400 million barrels. After our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns in the Spring of 2020, then jumped again after February 2021’s winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, but then fell sharply due to increased exports to Europe following the onset of the Ukraine war, only to jump again following the Christmas 2022 refinery freeze offs, our commercial crude supplies have somewhat leveled off since, and as of this January 10th were 4.0% less than the 429,911,000 barrels of oil left in commercial storage on January 12th of 2024, and 7.9% less than the 448,015,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on January 13th of 2023, and 0.3% less than the 413,813,000 barrels of oil we had left in commercial storage on January 14th of 2022…

This Week’s Rig Count

For a quick snapshot of this week's rig count, we are again including below a screenshot of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes…in the table below, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 10th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (January 3rd) and this week’s (January 10th) count, the third column shows last week’s January 3rd active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting period a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 12th of January, 2024…

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Now they want 4360 acres of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area – tell them no! – Save Ohio Parks -- On January 2, fracking tanks on a well pad just five miles from Salt Fork State Park exploded. The local fire department closed area roads, and nearby residents were evacuated.Due to extreme heat from the explosion, officials chose to let the fire – fueled by 100 barrels of liquid gas condensate – burn itself out over 18 hours. No testing was done of the air emissions, nor of the ground or water nearby.This well pad explosion underscores just how dangerous fracking is to Ohio state parks and wildlife areas. Gulfport, the company that owns the well pad, had previously paid a$3.7 million settlement with the US EPA for pollution from 17 well pads in Ohio – including the one that blew up. It has a long track record of other accidents and incidents as well.Yet an unnamed oil and gas company now wants to frack 4360 acres of Egypt Valley Wildlife Area. Tell the commission: No more leasing of public land to oil and gas! At 18,000 acres, Egypt Valley is one of the largest wildlife areas in Ohio. It is comprised of two large pieces of land situated north and south of Piedmont Lake in Belmont County. This nomination makes up much of the northern half of Egypt Valley.Before the Ohio Department of Natural Resources acquired the land that became Egypt Valley in 1995, it had been subjected to decades of coal mining using some of the largest earth-moving equipment of the time. About 80% of the land was mined, and the scars are still visible today, as shown in the photo above.Now Egypt Valley is a destination for hunters, hikers, birdwatchers, fishers, and people who love the outdoors. Deer, turkey, waterfowl, squirrel, grouse, rabbit, and dove are common, and ponds and lakes are stocked with bass, catfish, and bluegills. River otters were reintroduced to this area in 1993 and now a thriving population can be found there. The last thing Egypt Valley Wildlife Area needs is fracking. Act now to tell the commission: No more leasing of public land to oil and gas, Please visit the Nomination Comment Form, choose Nomination #24-DNR-0011, and submit your comment.

27 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 6 – 12 | Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Jan 6 - 12, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells remained healthy. There were 27 new permits issued last week, down three from 30 issued the week before. The Keystone State (PA) issued 13 new permits, with four going to Snyder Brothers in Armstrong County, four going to Coterra Energy in Susquehanna County (must be Coterra has restarted drilling), three for Infinity Natural Resources (INR) in Indiana County, and two for Range Resources in Washington County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ARSENAL RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EOG RESOURCES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | GULFPORT ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES |MARSHALL COUNTY | MONONGALIA COUNTY | NORTHEAST NATURAL ENERGY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | RITCHIE COUNTY | SNYDER BROTHERS | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY

Builders, Utility Co. Sue Maryland re New Reg Blocking NatGas Use - Marcellus Drilling News -Maryland is a sad state. It's completely ruled by leftists who seek to impoverish its residents by forcing them to use expensive and unreliable renewable energy. There is actually some Marcellus/Utica shale under Maryland (in a couple of far-western counties), but the state outlawed shale fracking nearly 10 years ago when then-Gov. Larry Hogan (a RINO and Trump-hater) allowed a Maryland bill to become law that bans fracking in the state (see Maryland’s Pusillanimous Gov Allows Frack Moratorium to Become Law). The latest attack against fossil energy is a new state regulation that phases out gas stoves, furnaces, water heaters, and other appliances at big residential and commercial buildings to "fight climate change." Not so fast. Builders and one utility company have sued to block the new reg from taking effect.

Venture Global Targets $110B in Massive IPO -- Venture Global plans to make waves with its upcoming U.S. IPO, aiming for a valuation around $110 billion.The company is set to pitch its IPO to investors by Jan. 17, Reuters reported.The company disclosed the estimate through an amendment to its S-1 statement filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The company originally filed its intent to hold an IPO on Dec. 20,about a week after Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG plant started production. According to the S-1, Venture Global plans to offer 50 million shares and anticipates the IPO price will be between $40 and $46 a share, raising up to $2.3 billion on the upper end of the stock price. That would set the company’s value at about $110 billion.The offering could rival New York’s largest energy IPO on record. Conoco raised $4.4 billion in 1998, according to Reuters.Venture Global seeks to take advantage of a rapidly growing global demand for LNG. The U.S. leads the globe in LNG exports, and besides the two LNG export terminals already functioning along the Gulf Coast, the company has five projects that are either commissioning or in the planning stages. According to the company’s third-quarter earnings, Venture Global had $19.6 billion in proceeds for 2024.

Freeport, Sabine Pass LNG Maintenance Cut Into Record U.S. Feed Gas Demand --The ramp up of new LNG export projects on the Gulf Coast is pushing U.S. feed gas demand to new highs as winter supply balances tighten, but maintenance events have limited more upward climbs. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. LNG feed gas flows hit a record of 15.49 Bcf/d over the weekend, NGI data showed, surpassing the previous high point of 15.15 Bcf/d in December 2023. Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana recently started shipping commissioning cargoes, while an expansion project at the Corpus Christi export facility in Texas has started producing the super-chilled fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Monday forecast Lower 48 export capacity to reach an average of 15.4 Bcf/d by the end of this year, with a possible peak of 18.7 Bcf/d.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Dip from 2-Year High on Higher Output, Lower Freeport LNG Flows (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Monday from a two-year high in the prior session on a reduction in the amount of gas curtailed by freezing pipes and lower flows to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Prices declined despite forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected. After soaring by about 10% to a two-year high earlier in the session, front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.5 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.934 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its highest price since Jan. 4, 2023. In the spot market, extreme cold blanketing parts of the country boosted next-day gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana and the Eastern Gas South hub to their highest levels since January 2024. Analysts projected the next three storage reports for the weeks ending Jan. 10, 17 and 24 could each show utilities pulling more than 200 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from inventories to meet soaring heating demand. Some analysts said withdrawals this month could top the current record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Those storage withdrawals could wipe out the current surplus of gas in storage, which stands near 7% over the five-year average, by the end of January. That would be the first time stockpiles would fall below the five-year average since January 2022. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in January, down from 104.2 Bcf/d in December. That compares with a record 104.5 Bcf/d in December 2023. Over the weekend, LSEG slashed estimated production curtailments due to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes so far this year to just 1.4 Bcf/d from Jan. 4-7 on Monday, down from a projected 5.9 Bcf/d from Dec. 31-Jan. 10 on Friday. The energy industry calls those curtailments freeze-offs. In past winters, freeze-offs cut gas output by around 16.5 Bcf/d from Jan. 8-16 in 2024, 19.4 Bcf/d from Dec. 21-24 in 2022, and 20.4 Bcf/d from Feb. 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Jan. 28, with the coldest day still to come on Jan. 21. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 144.4 Bcf/d this week to 149.2 Bcf/d next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use so far this winter peaked at 158.9 Bcf/d on Jan. 8 and would reach 165.1 Bcf/d on Jan. 21. That, however, would fall short of the daily record high of 168.4 Bcf/d on Jan. 16, 2024. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.0 Bcf/d so far in January, up from 14.4 Bcf/d in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to slide from an all-time high of 15.5 Bcf/d on Jan. 11 to 14.4 Bcf/d on Monday due mostly to reduced flows to Freeport LNG's 2.1-Bcf/d plant in Texas. Separately, flows to Venture Global LNG's 2.6-Bcf/d Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to rise to a record 1.0 Bcf/d on Sunday and Monday.

US natgas prices rise 3% to two-year high on frigid weather and record demand forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a two-year high on Wednesday, on forecasts for more frigid weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend than previously expected, which could freeze gas wells and pipes and boost the amount of gas used to heat homes and businesses to a record high. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.5 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $4.083 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Jan. 4, 2023. Analysts projected the next three storage reports for the weeks ending Jan. 10, Jan. 17 and Jan. 24 could each show utilities pulling more than 200 billion cubic feet of gas from inventories to meet soaring heating demand. Some analysts said withdrawals this month could top the current record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. There is about 7% more gas in storage than usual for the time of year. But storage withdrawals this month could remove the surplus by the end of January, which would be the first time stockpiles fall below the five-year average since January 2022. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell from 104.2 billion cubic feet per day in December to 103.2 billion so far in January due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known in the energy industry as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.5 bcfd in December 2023. While curtailments were small so far this month, analysts and traders noted freeze-offs could soar in coming days with the coldest weather still to come. Adding to total gas demand, the amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has reached an average of 15.0 bcfd so far in January, up from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach 15.2 bcfd on Wednesday, up from 14.2 bcfd on Tuesday, with flows to Venture Global LNG's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana set to hit a new record high of 1.2 bcfd on Wednesday. Flows to Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas, meanwhile, were set to rise to 2.1 bcfd on Wednesday after slipping to an average of 1.5 bcfd over the last three days.

US natgas prices jump 4% to two-year high on forecasts for more cold, record demand — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a two-year high on Thursday on colder weather forecasts for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend, which could cut output by freezing gas wells and pipes while demand for the fuel to heat homes and businesses rises to a record high. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.5 cents, or 4.3%, to settle at $4.258 per million British thermal units, the highest close since Dec. 30, 2022. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 258 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 10, in line with the 255-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. The draw far exceeded the decrease of 150 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average draw of 128 bcf for this time of year. Analysts cited cold weather that fed heating demand. Analysts projected the next two storage reports for the weeks ending Jan. 17 and Jan. 24 would also show utilities pulling more than 200 bcf of gas from inventories to meet soaring heating demand. Some analysts said withdrawals this month could top the current record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. There was currently about 3% more gas in storage than usual for the time of year. Storage withdrawals this month could remove that surplus by the end of January, which would be the first time stockpiles would fall below the five-year average since January 2022. In the spot market, extreme cold blanketing much of the country boosted next-day gas prices to a one-year high at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark (NG-W-HH-SNL) in Louisiana. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell from 104.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 103.3 billion so far in January due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Jan. 25, with the coldest days expected around Jan. 20-21, before turning mostly near normal from Jan. 26-31. The weather on Jan. 20-21 at the end of the long holiday weekend was on track to be colder than the same period in 2024 when gas demand hit a daily record high and spot prices jumped to multi-year highs at several trading hubs across the country. Some weather forecasters projected that Jan. 20-21 could be the coldest days in a decade or more.

US natgas prices plunge 7% from 2-year high on milder late Jan weather forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures plunged about 7% on Friday from a two-year high in the prior session on forecasts for milder weather in late January and early February that should cut demand for gas for heating. This weekend, extreme cold weather over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend was on track to cut output by freezing gas wells and pipes and boost usage of the fuel to heat homes and businesses to record highs. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 31.0 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at $3.948 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since Dec. 30, 2022. For the week, the front-month eased about 1% after soaring about 19% last week. After utilities pulled a massive 258 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 10, analysts projected energy firms would keep pulling over 200 bcf of gas during the weeks ending Jan. 17 and Jan. 24 to meet soaring heating demand. Some analysts said withdrawals this month could top the current record high of 994 bcf set in January 2022, according to federal energy data. There was currently about 3% more gas in storage than usual for the time of year. Storage withdrawals this month could erase that surplus by the end of January, which would be the first time stockpiles would fall below the five-year average since January 2022. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell from 104.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 103.4 bcfd so far in January due mostly to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs. That compares with a monthly record of 104.5 bcfd in December 2023. While curtailments were small so far this month, analysts and traders warned that freeze-offs could soar in coming days, with the coldest weather still to come. Freeze-offs in past winters cut gas output by roughly 8.1 bcfd from Jan. 9-16 in 2024, 4.6 bcfd from Jan. 31-Feb. 1 in 2023, 15.8 bcfd from Dec. 20-24 in 2022, and 20.4 bcfd from Feb. 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data. Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Jan. 26, with the coldest days expected around Jan. 20-21, before turning mostly near normal from Jan. 27-Feb. 1. The weather on Jan. 20-21 at the end of the long holiday weekend was on track to be the coldest since last year's Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, when gas demand hit a daily record high and spot prices jumped to multi-year highs at several trading hubs across the country. Some forecasters projected that Jan. 20-21 could be even more frigid this year, possibly the coldest in a decade or more. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 145.6 bcfd this week to 153.1 bcfd next week before dropping to 141.3 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns mild. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas use so far this winter peaked at 158.9 bcfd on Jan. 8 and could reach 167.2 bcfd on Jan. 20 and 169.3 bcfd on Jan. 21. If correct, demand on Jan. 21 would top the current daily record high of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16, 2024. Adding to total gas demand, the amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.1 bcfd so far in January from 14.4 bcfd in December. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On Friday, LNG feedgas was on track to reach 15.8 bcfd, up from an all-time high of 15.6 bcfd on Thursday, with flows to Venture Global LNG's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana set to hit a record of 1.2 bcfd.

Natural Gas Prices to Rise in 2025 on Way to $4 in 2026, With Lower Power Generation Share, EIA Says --Henry Hub natural gas spot prices should climb in 2025 with demand gains driven by U.S. LNG exports as domestic power consumption cedes ground to renewables and coal, according to updated federal forecasts. Graph denoting Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) the historical Henry Hub bidweek natural gas price, forward curve, annual average and residential natural gas price, annual average and forecast price using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. In the January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) upped its projected price for the benchmark spot price to $3.10/MMBtu for 2025 from a December estimate just short of $3.00. That would be up 41% from an all-time low average of $2.19 in 2024, EIA said. EIA also released its first price estimates for 2026, with Henry Hub projected to average $4.000 for the year. The agency also noted spot gas prices in December averaged $3.124, up from $2.201 in November.

U.S. Feed Gas Nears 16 Bcf/d as New Plants Continue Ramping Up — U.S. LNG feed gas deliveries continued to climb higher on Thursday, when flows were nominated at a record high of 15.96 Bcf, according to NGI data. Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. The previous record came just days before when LNG export facilities nominated 15.49 Bcf/d of feed gas on Jan. 11, surpassing the previous high of 15.15 Bcf/d set in December 2023. Strong LNG demand and colder weather pushed Henry Hub futures prices above $4/MMBtu this week and NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. above $5. Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana recently started shipping commissioning cargoes, while an expansion project at the Corpus Christi export facility in Texas has started producing the super-chilled fuel.

Burgum, Trump’s Energy Czar, Pledges to Remove Roadblocks for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity Expansions - Former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, tapped to head the U.S. Department of Interior in the Trump administration, led a charm offensive during a Senate hearing on Thursday, underscored by his belief that the nation’s public lands and waters can coexist with responsible energy resource development. In the confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Burgum said a top priority would be to “follow the law” in the Trump administration’s quest to achieve “energy dominance.” Burgum is set to lead not only the Interior Department, but the National Energy Council (NEC), one of the incoming administration’s new initiatives. As envisioned, NEC would have sweeping authority over federal energy agencies involved in permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation.

In Senate Hearing, Liberty Energy CEO Wright Touts Natural Gas Supply, Long-Term Demand - Liberty Energy Inc. CEO Chris Wright, President-elect Trump’s nominee to lead the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), said if confirmed his top priorities would include breaking down government barriers that discourage new infrastructure and further expansion of fossil fuel production. During a Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources hearing Wednesday, Wright touted the United States’ deep well of natural gas reserves and its potential to ramp up exports of LNG as part of a broader effort to cement the country’s leading role in global energy. “Energy is the essential agent of change that enables everything that we do – everything. A low energy society is poor. A highly energized society can bring health, wealth and opportunity for all,” Wright told members of the committee.

Antis Block 15-Mile Pipe Causing Gas Moratorium in Myrtle Beach - - Marcellus Drilling News -Here’s a story that illustrates how the radicalized left continues to destroy jobs and the economy with its kneejerk reaction against *any* fossil fuel pipeline, no matter how large or small. Some five years ago, Dominion Energy announced the River Neck to Kingsburg project, a short 15 miles of 16” natural gas transmission main line that would run in an existing right-of-way with another pipeline along Old River Road near Pamplico in Florence County, SC. It was supposed to be built and flowing in 2022. Dominion still hasn’t built a square inch, thanks to the lawfare launched by the anti-fossil fuelers of the Blue Ridge Environmental Defense League. Read More

Judge Tosses NYC Lawsuit Against Big Oil re Climate Change -- Marcellus Drilling News -- A judge has dismissed New York City’s lawsuit seeking to hold Exxon Mobil, BP, and Shell liable for misleading the public about their products and claims that their commitment to renewable energy and fighting climate change are false. The case was so weak not even a Democrat judge appointed by Kathy Hochul could stomach it. In her ruling, Justice Anar Rathod Patel told the city it could not have it both ways. The city claimed its residents knew about mythical climate change and how it is caused by burning nasty fossil fuels. Yet the city’s lawsuit claims Big Oil has tricked people into using fossil energy with false and misleading advertising. Patel wrote, “The city cannot have it both ways.”

Colonial Pipeline shuts main gasoline artery after potential gasoline spill (Reuters) - Colonial Pipeline, the largest U.S. fuel pipeline operator, said on Tuesday that the main artery moving gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast has been shut since Monday night due to a potential spill in Paulding County, Georgia. Line 1 was temporarily shut as operator Colonial Pipeline responds to a potential gasoline release, a company spokesperson said. Crews were on scene in Paulding, Georgia, to coordinate response efforts, they added. Line 1 moves around 1.5 million barrels of gasoline each day from Houston, Texas, to storage tanks in Greensboro, North Carolina, from where it is distributed locally or pumped to other Northeastern markets all the way to the New York Harbor. It is one of two mainlines on the more than 5,500-mile Colonial pipeline system. U.S. gasoline traders widely cited expectations for Line 1 to restart later on Tuesday night, lowering the chances of a major disruption in fuel supplies. "The timeline sounds on par with a best case outcome," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy said, adding that it suggests a minor leak and minimal environmental mitigation. Colonial Pipeline declined to provide a restart timeline. Gasoline futures rose 0.43 cents to settle at $2.1046 a gallon on Tuesday, bucking weakness in the broader oil complex. The U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Paulding County Sheriff's Office said there was no notification to 911 regarding a gasoline leak.

Colonial Pipeline expects main gasoline artery to restart on Friday (Reuters) - Colonial Pipeline has made progress in identifying the source of a leak on its main gasoline artery and estimates Line 1 will restart on Friday, earlier than previous expectations, the company said on Thursday. Line 1, one of two mainlines on the more than 5,500-mile (8,850-km) Colonial system, was shut on Monday night after Colonial received reports of a gasoline release in Paulding County, Georgia. The company earlier expected the line, which supplies about half of the U.S. East Coast's demand for motor fuel, would remain shut through Friday. "On-site work to identify the source of a release and begin repairs on our gasoline pipeline, Line 1, in Paulding County, Ga., have progressed," Colonial Pipeline said in a statement on Thursday. The line should restart on Friday if site conditions remain stable and repairs proceed as planned, the statement added, without providing a specific time. The restart is currently expected to be at 8 a.m. Central Time (1400 GMT), a person familiar with the matter said. A spokesperson for the company declined to answer questions about the cause and size of the leak. Line 1 delivers 1.5 million barrels of gasoline each day from Houston, Texas, to storage tanks in Greensboro, North Carolina, from where the motor fuel is distributed locally or shipped to other markets all the way up to the New York Harbor. It is almost always chock-full of gasoline, making it one of the most crucial parts of the domestic U.S. gasoline supply chain.

US drillers cut oil and gas rigs to lowest since Dec 2021, Baker Hughes says - (Reuters) - U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a second week in a row to the lowest since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by four to 580 in the week to Jan. 17. Baker Hughes said this week's decline puts the total rig count down 40 rigs, or 6% below this time last year. Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by two to 478 this week, their lowest since November, while gas rigs also fell by two to 98, their lowest since September. In the Haynesville shale in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, drillers cut two rigs, bringing the total down to 29, the lowest since January 2017. In the Williston basin in Montana and North Dakota, drillers cut four rigs, bringing the total down to 33, the lowest since January 2024. And in Louisiana, drillers cut one rig, bringing the total down to 29, the lowest since August 2020. The oil and gas rig count declined by about 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 as lower U.S. oil and gas prices over the past couple of years prompted energy firms to focus more on paying down debt and boosting shareholder returns rather than raising output. Even though analysts forecast U.S. spot crude prices could decline for a third year in a row in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected crude output would rise from a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to around 13.6 million bpd in 2025. On the gas side, EIA projected a 43% increase in spot gas prices in 2025 would prompt producers to boost drilling activity this year after a 14% price drop in 2024 caused several energy firms to cut output for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic reduced demand for the fuel in 2020. EIA projected gas output would rise to 104.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025, up from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 and a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.

Enverus Releases List of 'Most Prolific' Public Oil, Gas Operators in USA -In a statement sent to Rigzone recently, Enverus announced that it has released a list of the 50 “most prolific … public oil and gas operators in the U.S. based on gross operated production last year”. According to the list, which was seen by Rigzone, in 1H24, ExxonMobil ranked first with 1.96 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, followed by Expand Energy, with 1.69 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and Occidental Petroleum, with 1.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. EOG Resources was ranked fourth, with 1.18 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and Devon Energy came in fifth, with 979,550 barrels of oil equivalent per day, the list showed. ExxonMobil’s production had an oil weighting of 53 percent and its active rig count came in at 19, according to Enverus’ list, which highlighted that the company ranked first in 2023. Expand Energy’s production had an oil weighting of one percent and its active rig count came in at 10, the list highlighted. The company is a new addition to the rankings, the list pointed out. In terms of oil weighted production, Occidental Petroleum came in at 58 percent, EOG Resources came in at 56 percent, and Devon Energy came in at 57 percent, the list revealed. In terms of active rig count, Occidental Petroleum had 27, EOG Resources had five, and Devon Energy had 26, the list showed. Occidental Petroleum ranked fifth in last year’s list, EOG Resources was third, and Devon Energy was ninth, Enverus’ list highlighted. Enverus’ list noted that companies were ranked by average gross operated production from onshore wells in the Lower 48 states. “Production and ranking for both 1H24 and 2023 include all gross operated production from assets and companies acquired up to and including 10/10/24 as accounted for in Enverus’ platform; as a result, all changes in rankings are based on organic production changes on the post-transacted assets,” the list stated. “Oil production includes condensate … Rig numbers are as of 10/10/24. Numbers are subject to change because of lags in reporting,” it added. In the statement sent to Rigzone, Enverus CEO Manuj Nikhanj said, “last year, the top 10 public operators represented 56 percent of production out of the top 50 on a barrel of oil equivalent per day basis”. “Due to mergers, we see that same figure jump to 62 percent of production in part due to Pioneer Natural Resources joining ExxonMobil, and Chesapeake and Southwestern rolling together into the newly formed Expand Energy,” Nikhanj added. “It’s clear that the Permian is still the king, and the most active region operated by the top 50 operators. Seven of the top 10 have the Permian as their most active region,” Nikhanj continued. “Volume-wise, the Permian also dominates the rankings – 81 percent of oil production and 40 percent of gas production from the top 50 names comes from this one basin,” Nikhanj continued. The Enverus CEO went on to note in the statement that “the top 50 names were running a total of 298 rigs at the time of list compilation, compared to 322 from the prior year at a similar point in time”. “Notwithstanding the pull back, the approximately 10 percent increase in rig efficiency over this period is driving production growth, even at lower activity levels,” Nikhanj added. Rigzone contacted ExxonMobil, Expand Energy, Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources, and Devon Energy for comment on the Enverus list and statement. Occidental declined to comment. The other companies have not yet responded to Rigzone at the time of writing.

Biden administration eyes more drilling restrictions in Alaska -The Biden administration is setting in motion actions that could prevent drilling in more “special areas” of Alaska’s north slope — if the incoming Trump administration does not shelve it. The Interior Department issued a memo Thursday proposing a new protected area and expansions of existing protected areas.The impacted areas would be expected to total more than 3 million additional protected acres within a 23-million-acre area known as the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.The new protected area would be called the Nuiqsut Subsistence Use Area. The Nuiqsut community is located near the controversial Willow oil project. Existing activity that’s part of that project is not expected to be impacted, but if the policies are left in place, they could impact efforts to further expand it.The move comes on top of prior decisions to block drilling on 13 million acres within the petroleum reserve and reverse a Trump-era decision to open up 80 percent of it for oil and gas production. Laura Daniel-Davis, the Interior Department acting deputy secretary, told reporters the move comes in response to “really consistent feedback that there are additional areas … that people believed merited protection within the reserve.”The move comes just days before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. He is expected to broadly pursue policies that open up more opportunities for oil and gas as part of a commitment to “drill baby drill.” This latest policy is among those his administration is likely to reverse.The reserve in Alaska’s north slope was set aside in 1923 by President Harding as an emergency supply of oil for the Navy. The area is also home to caribou herds, threatened and sensitive bird species, and other animals, including polar bears.

More U.S. LNG Lands in Europe as Cargoes Divert to Capture Stronger Prices - LNG cargoes in January have shifted from Asia to take advantage of higher prices in Europe, where winter weather and geopolitical tensions have created a robust arbitrage opportunity. Charts showing U.S. Gulf Coast LNG netback prices from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). Freezing temperatures this month, and the loss of Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine since Jan. 1 has boosted European demand for LNG. Kpler data show that 2.97 million tons (Mt) of the super-chilled fuel is on track to arrive on the continent for the full week ended Jan. 17. That would be above the four-week moving average of 2.41 Mt. European storage inventories are currently at 64% of capacity, well below the 79% recorded at this time last year when the weather was milder. January withdrawals have been 10.6% above levels the same time last year, according to Rystad Energy.

Mexico Imports of U.S. Natural Gas Jumping as New Leaders Chart Their Course --- North American natural gas prices continued to push higher this week as cold weather persisted and a voracious appetite for heating ate into supply. The New York Mercantile Exchange contract for February was up about 10 cents to around $4.200/MMBtu on Thursday afternoon. The worst of the cold is yet to come, forecasters have said. U.S. Lower 48 demand could soar in the next seven days to 131.1 Bcf/d versus 123.0 Bcf/d the previous week, according to Wood Mackenzie. U.S. production would be around 102.8 Bcf/d during the period, the firm said.

Mexican Developers Advancing Another LNG Project Aimed at European Market - Mexican firms Comercializadora Aqualita SA and Casarve Servicios SRL are designing a ready-to-build LNG project in the Mexican Gulf port of Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz. It joins a host of other LNG projects in Mexico that are seeking to get off the ground. The Coatzacoalcos II LNG terminal would target European as well as South American markets, according to Casarve director Santiago Arroyo, who spoke with NGI. It would be developed privately, without the assistance of Mexican state utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE).

Record Norwegian Natural Gas Output Cut Into Europe’s LNG Imports, U.S. Deliveries in 2024 -U.S. LNG export capacity is set to continue changing global gas market dynamics and impact prices, which could have big implications for Australia’s market, according to the Australian Competition an Consumer Commission (ACCC). Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures settles with historical market volatility. In the ACCC’s latest interim natural gas supply report, the country’s gas market watchdog noted the east coast is forecast to have sufficient supply to meet domestic demand through 2026. However, lack of investment in new production and gas infrastructure may require new sources, including LNG imports for the southern states. “Our current projections indicate the potential for structural gas shortfalls on the east coast from 2027 unless supply increases or demand decreases,” ACCC commissioner Anna Brakey said.

TurkStream Attack Pushes TTF Prices Higher – Europe was poised to continue pulling LNG cargoes away from Asia on Monday as prices again climbed higher amid renewed supply concerns and rising geopolitical tensions. (a chart showing NGI's estimated LNG feed gas volumes) The prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract gained 7% to finish at $14.44/MMBtu after posting its first weekly loss in a month last week. Russia said Monday it shot down nine Ukranian drones that attacked a compressor station on the TurkStream pipeline that moves Russian natural gas through Turkey to southern Europe. Ukraine targeted the infrastructure in Russia.

Germany working to secure drifting Russian oil tanker -- Germany is working to secure the Russian oil tanker Eventin, which was stranded after losing power on 10 January off the northern coast of the island of Rügen in the Baltic Sea. The tanker, carrying nearly 100,000 tons of oil, lost power while en route from Russia to Egypt, drifting dangerously close to the coast. Authorities, including three tugboats, tried towing the vessel to safer waters amid stormy conditions, with waves up to 2.5 meters and strong winds complicating the operation. As of the latest update, the tanker Eventin has been secured, with two tugboats holding it in position near Sassnitz. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized Russia’s use of aging tankers, part of a “shadow fleet” designed to bypass sanctions on Russian oil exports. She warned that these “dilapidated” vessels pose a threat to European security, highlighting the danger of environmental disasters and disruptions to tourism in the Baltic. While no oil leaks have been detected, the situation remains a significant risk to both the environment and regional security.

Japan Watching for Any Impact on LNG From New Russia Sanctions -- Tokyo will closely monitor the rollout of new US sanctions on Moscow for any impact on shipments of liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Far East, a key source of supply for Japan. A week ago, the Biden administration imposed aggressive penalties on Russian energy, including restrictions on vessels that export oil from the Sakhalin-2 project just north of Japan. If those curbs end up halting crude production from the site, the gas that’s pumped out at the same time may be at risk. Japan is a big LNG buyer and sourced about 8% of its imports from Sakhalin-2 last year, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. “We’ll discuss with the relevant stakeholders” to ensure Japan gets the gas it needs, Shinichi Sasayama, the president of major importer Tokyo Gas Co., said Thursday. “It might require more investigation to determine how much impact this will actually have. I wouldn’t say there is no impact whatsoever.” One of Sakhalin-2’s three production platforms, Lunskaya, pumps both natural gas and gas condensate, a light version of crude oil, and the two fuels are then separated onshore. If curbs on exporting the oil lead to a buildup of crude on site, that may eventually prompt a halt in output, affecting gas in the process. “If oil and condensate shipments really stopped, then at some point — when the storage facilities were full — gas production would also have to halt as it’s impossible to produce gas without producing condensate,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an oil industry veteran who spent part of his career at Sakhalin-2. The US sanctions do not extend to the actual oil and gas from the development, just to the tankers needed to export the crude. Oil shipments are unlikely to cease immediately since the restrictions allow for a wind-down period. Ultimately, Lunskaya’s continued operation will depend on Russia’s ability to find other vessels — possibly from its growing shadow fleet — to replace the sanctioned ships. Complicating any replacement is the fact that the three shuttle tankers used by Sakhalin-2 have specialized bow loading equipment that allows them to take cargoes from the terminal. Such apparatus is not standard on oil tankers. With daily gas production of a little over 50 million cubic meters, Lunskaya is the main source of supply to Sakhalin-2’s liquefaction plant. It also pumps 50,000 barrels of liquids a day, which equates to about two tanker-loads a month. The two other platforms produce oil and deliver their output separately. Mitsubishi Corp., a partner in the Sakhalin-2 project, said it’s aware of the new sanctions and is reviewing the details. The company, as well as other part-owner Mitsui & Co., referred all questions regarding output to Sakhalin Energy, the venture’s operator, which didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Australian Energy Watchdog Warns of Domestic Impacts from Growing U.S. LNG Supply - U.S. LNG export capacity is set to continue changing global gas market dynamics and impact prices, which could have big implications for Australia’s market, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures settles with historical market volatility. In the ACCC’s latest interim natural gas supply report, the country’s gas market watchdog noted the east coast is forecast to have sufficient supply to meet domestic demand through 2026. However, lack of investment in new production and gas infrastructure may require new sources, including LNG imports for the southern states. “Our current projections indicate the potential for structural gas shortfalls on the east coast from 2027 unless supply increases or demand decreases,” ACCC commissioner Anna Brakey said.

Russia Says It Damaged Facilities at Ukraine Gas Storage Site -- Russia claimed it damaged ground infrastructure of one of the largest natural gas storage sites in Ukraine’s Lviv region during a series of attacks on the country’s energy sector on Wednesday. The strike was a response to Ukraine’s use of US and British missiles on Russian territories, Russian Defense Ministry said in the statement in Telegram. Moscow also said it was retaliating for an earlier attack on a gas compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which is important for flows through the TurkStream conduit that is the last remaining pipeline for Russian supplies to Europe. Russia’s claim of damaging the gas storage’s ground facilities could not be independently verified. Attacks of energy infrastructure in both countries have intensified this week as Kyiv closed its pipeline network for Russian supplies to Europe starting from this year. The hits on Wednesday forced emergency power cuts across large swathes of Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirming that the energy sector, including gas infrastructure, was the main target of the strike. Lviv Governor Maksym Kozytskyi said that the Russians targeted two critical infrastructure facilities, including one in Stryi, that caused some damage. Ukraine had earlier this week carried out a massive attack on energy and military facilities across central Russia and the Volga region. Those raids targeted two chemical plants in the Tula said and Bryansk regions and hit an ammunition warehouse at the Engels airfield in the Saratov region, setting Rosneft PJSC’s Saratov oil refinery on fire, a Ukrainian official said.

Russia struggles to contain widespread Kerch Strait oil spill - India Today -An emergency task force arrived in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region on Sunday as an oil spill in the Kerch Strait from two storm-stricken tankers continues to spread a month after it was first detected, officials said. The task force, which includes Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov, was set up after Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday called on authorities to ramp up the response to the spill, calling it “one of the most serious environmental challenges we have faced in recent years.” Kurenkov said that “the most difficult situation” had developed near the port of Taman in the Krasnodar region, where fuel oil continues to leak into the sea from the damaged part of the Volgoneft-239 tanker. Kurenkov was quoted as saying by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti that the remaining oil will be pumped out of the tanker’s stern. The Emergencies Ministry said Saturday that over 155,000 tons of contaminated sand and soil had been collected since oil spilled out of two tankers during a storm four weeks ago in the Kerch Strait, which separates the Russia-occupied Crimean Peninsula from the Krasnodar region. Russian-installed officials in Ukraine’s partially Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region said Saturday that the mazut — a heavy, low-quality oil product — had reached the Berdyansk Spit, some 145 kilometers (90 miles) north of the Kerch Strait. It contaminated an area 14 1/2-kilometer (9-mile) long, Moscow-installed Gov. Yevgeny Balitsky wrote on Telegram. Russian-appointed officials in Moscow-occupied Crimea announced a regional emergency last weekend after oil was detected on the shores of Sevastopol, the peninsula’s largest city, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) from the Kerch Strait. In response to Putin’s call for action, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi accused Russia of “beginning to demonstrate its alleged ‘concern’ only after the scale of the disaster became too obvious to conceal its terrible consequences.” “Russia’s practice of first ignoring the problem, then admitting its inability to solve it, and ultimately leaving the entire Black Sea region alone with the consequences is yet another proof of its international irresponsibility,” Tykhyi said Friday. The Kerch Strait is an important global shipping route, providing passage from the inland Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It has also been a key point of conflict between Russia and Ukraine after Moscow annexed the peninsula in 2014. In 2016, Ukraine took Moscow to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, where it accused Russia of trying to seize control of the area illegally. In 2021, Russia closed the strait for several months. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, described the oil spill last month as a “large-scale environmental disaster” and called for additional sanctions on Russian tankers.

Russia creates task force to tackle Kerch Strait oil spill - An emergency task force, including Russian Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov, was deployed to the southern Krasnodar region to address an ongoing oil spill in the Kerch Strait.The spill, caused by storm-damaged tankers over the weekend of December 14-15, 2024, has persisted for over a month and was labeled by President Vladimir Putin as “one of the most serious environmental challenges” in recent years. The Volgoneft-239 tanker, near the port of Taman, remains a critical concern, with fuel oil still leaking into the sea, CNN reports. Authorities plan to pump out the remaining oil to mitigate further damage.The spill has resulted in over 155,000 tons of contaminated sand and soil being collected, with the mazut, a heavy oil product, contaminating areas as far as the Berdyansk Spit and Sevastopol in Crimea.Local emergencies have been declared, and the spill’s reach underscores the environmental and geopolitical complexities of the Kerch Strait, a vital shipping route linking the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea.Ukraine criticized Russia’s delayed response, accusing it of neglecting the disaster and jeopardizing the Black Sea region. Ukrainian officials have called for additional sanctions against Russian tankers, emphasizing the spill’s broader implications amid ongoing tensions in the region.

Oil Prices Surge to Four-Month High Amid Toughest US Sanctions on Russia --Crude oil prices soared to their highest levels in four months following the United States’ imposition of stringent sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector. The sanctions, introduced by the Biden administration, aim to curtail Moscow’s ability to generate revenue from oil exports, escalating concerns over global oil supply. As of Monday, Brent crude was trading at $81.11 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $78.08 per barrel, both posting gains of over 1% since markets opened. The U.S. Treasury’s latest measures include sanctions on key Russian oil companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, along with restrictions on 183 tankers, many of which belong to the so-called “shadow fleet” used by Russia to bypass Western shipping and insurance services. RBC Capital Markets described the sanctions as a significant risk to global oil supply, adding uncertainty to the outlook for the first quarter of 2025. “The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply, adding more uncertainty,” the firm said in a note quoted by Reuters. China and India, the largest buyers of Russian crude since the Ukraine war began, are reportedly scrambling to mitigate the impact of these sanctions. Analysts warn that the move will push Asian buyers to seek alternatives in the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, likely driving up shipping costs and creating logistical hurdles. “Overall, the doubling of tankers sanctioned for moving Russian barrels could serve as a major logistical headwind to post-invasion crude flows,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted. The sanctions are expected to affect vessels carrying an estimated 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude daily. The latest measures are widely regarded as the toughest sanctions on Russian energy to date, targeting every stage of the production and distribution process. A U.S. official, speaking to Reuters, expressed confidence that the sanctions would significantly increase the cost and difficulty of circumventing restrictions. Oil markets have reacted sharply, with experts predicting further price increases as the sanctions disrupt global supply chains. Asian oil importers, in particular, are expected to bear the brunt of the higher costs as they shift reliance to other suppliers. With this decisive move, the Biden administration has underscored its commitment to tightening pressure on Russia, leaving energy markets to grapple with heightened volatility and uncertainty in the months ahead.

Crude Gains Momentum: Key Trends Behind Monday’s Market Surge -- The oil market on Monday continued to trend higher in follow through strength seen on Friday after the U.S. Treasury imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil producers as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil. The market was well supported on expectations that the sanctions on Russian oil will force buyers in China and India to seek other suppliers in the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, increasing prices and shipping costs. There were reports that at least 65 oil tankers have dropped anchor at multiple locations, including off the coasts of China and Russia following the announcement of the new sanctions. The crude market extended its gains throughout the session, rallying over 3.5% to a high of $79.27 in afternoon trading. The market later erased some of its sharp gains ahead of the close. The February WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $78.82, its highest settlement since August 12, 2024, and the March Brent contract settled up $1.25 at $81.01. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.16 cents at $2.5333 and the RB market settling up 2.54 cents at $2.1003. Ship tracking data showed that at least 65 oil tankers have dropped anchor at multiple locations including off the coasts of China and Russia since the U.S. announced a new sanctions package on Friday. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the latest round of U.S. sanctions on the Russian energy sector risked destabilizing global markets, and added that Russia would do everything possible to minimize their impact.Traders and analysts said Chinese and Indian refiners will source more oil from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, increasing prices and freight costs, as new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and ships cut supplies to Moscow’s top customers. Two Chinese trade sources said Russian oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, which will force Chinese independent refiners to cut refining output going forward. Kpler’s lead freight analyst Matt Wright said that among the newly sanctioned ships, 143 are oil tankers that handled more than 530 million barrels of Russian crude last year, about 42% of the country’s total seaborne crude exports.White House national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said the Biden administration sees a possible Gaza agreement as soon as this week. Earlier, an official said mediators gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday to end the war in Gaza, after a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by envoys of both U.S. President Joe Biden and President elect Donald Trump. Israel’s Kan radio, citing an Israeli official, reported that Israeli and Hamas delegations in Qatar had both received a draft and that the Israeli delegation had briefed Israel’s leaders. Officials on both sides, while stopping short of confirming that a final draft had been reached, described progress at the talks.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.16 million bpd of capacity in the week ending January 17^th, cutting available refining capacity by 620,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.49 million bpd in the week ending January 24^th.

Oil futures settle at a 5-month high as U.S. tightens sanctions on Russian oil | U.S. and global benchmark crude-oil prices settled Monday at their highest since August, with investors assessing the potential hit to supply from a further tightening of U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil sector.

-- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for February delivery rose $2.25, or 2.9%, to settle at $78.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. benchmark marked its highest front-month contract settlement since Aug. 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
-- March Brent crude BRN00 BRNH25, the global benchmark, climbed $1.25, or 1.6%, at $81.01 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the highest since Aug. 26.
-- February gasoline RBG25 tacked on 1.2% to $2.10 a gallon, while February heating oil HOG25 added 1.3% to $2.53 a gallon.
-- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 ended at $3.93 per million British thermal units, down 1.4%.

U.S. sanctions could disrupt Russian crude exports to key buyers China and India, Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at Tickmill, said in market commentary. The sanctions aim to reduce Moscow's oil revenue and the reduction in Russian exports could push global crude prices higher, at least in the near term, as the market "adjusts to the loss of supply from one of the world's largest oil producers."The U.S. Department of Treasury announced sanctions Friday targeting two major Russian oil producers - Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas - as well as 183 oil-carrying vessels, Russia-based oilfield-service providers and Russian energy officials."The uncertainty over how impactful these sanctions will be is proving bullish for the oil market," Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in a note, adding that around 700,000 barrels a day of crude supply were seen at risk."However, as we saw following the EU ban on Russian oil and products imports, Russia managed to redirect trade flows, which meant little impact on Russian export volumes," they wrote. "Potentially, Russia will once again be able to take action to minimize the impact of these latest sanctions."In a note dated Sunday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said Russia can discount its oil to incentivize continued shipping by a "dynamic shadow fleet and continued purchases by price-sensitive buyers."The incoming U.S. administration, meanwhile, will likely want to "avoid large and persistent drops in Russian volumes given its goal of lower U.S. energy prices and its commentary signaling a greater focus on reducing oil revenues from Iran than from Russia," the Goldman analysts said. Higher Russian refinery runs and higher refined products exports can also "help to ease constraints in crude-oil exports."Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs left its base cases for Russian production and oil prices unchanged, with 2025 total liquids output expected to average 10.6 million barrels per day, and Brent oil prices are averaging $76 in 2025.

Oil prices remain near 4-month highs as Russia sanctions weighed -- OIL prices eased on Tuesday but remained near four-month highs as the impact of fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil remained the market's key focus. Brent futures slipped 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.73 a barrel by 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 18 cents, or 0.2% to $78.64 a barrel. Prices jumped 2% on Monday after the U.S. Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that trade oil as part of Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of tankers. "Headlines surrounding Russia oil sanctions have been the dominant driver for oil prices over the past week, and combined with resilient U.S. economic data, the tighter supply-demand dynamics have been seeing some momentum," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. "Prices are taking a slight breather today. With prices rising fast and furious by close to 10% since the start of the year, it does prompt some profit-taking as event risks around upcoming U.S. inflation data releases loom." The U.S. producer price index (PPI) will be released later in the day, with consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The stakes are high for Wednesday's figures, where any rise in core inflation greater than the forecast 0.2% would threaten to close the door on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Lower interest rates typically help in stimulating economic growth, which could prop up oil demand. "The recent rally to a three-month high does signal an improvement in sentiment, but while broad bearish pressures have eased for the time being, a stronger catalyst is still needed to fuel a sustained broader uptrend," IG's Yeap added. While analysts were still expecting a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, the actual physical impact could be less. "...These sanctions have the potential to take as much as 700k b/d of supply off the market, which would erase the surplus that we are expecting for this year. However, the actual reduction in flows will likely be less, as Russia and buyers find ways around these sanctions - clearly there will be more strain on non-sanctioned vessels within the shadow fleet," ING analysts said in a note. Meanwhile, demand uncertainty from major buyer China could blunt the impact of the tighter supply. China's crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday. "New sanctions on Russian tankers are expected to impact crude supply to China and India, though key players in these countries are still assessing the legal situation and possible workarounds,"

Ceasefire News Cools Oil Rally - Oil slipped from a five-month high as Hamas and Israel tentatively agreed to a cease-fire, cooling a rally fueled by risks to Russian and Iranian supplies. West Texas Intermediate retreated 1.7% to settle at $77.50 a barrel after CBS reported Israel and Hamas agreed in principle to a draft deal for a cease-fire and hostage release. Such a deal would mark a potential end to a conflict that has buffeted global oil markets for more than 15 months. The relative strength index shows crude futures have been mostly overbought since the start of the year, a reading that signals prices are due for a pullback. Algorithmic-driven investors known as commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, are flashing signs of buying exhaustion, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities. “Our simulations of future prices already suggest that in no scenario will CTAs add to their WTI crude length, suggesting a continued rise in supply risk premia associated with Biden’s farewell sanctions on Russia will now be needed to support prices further,” Ghali said. The US benchmark had climbed 6.6% over the previous two sessions, while oil shipping rates surged the most in months on Monday in response to the measures from Washington that target about 160 tankers involved in the Russian oil trade. While the full impact of the latest US sanctions package remains unclear, it may drive a rerouting of global flows as users across Asia, including refiners in India and China, are forced to reach far and wide for replacement barrels. Some early signs of disruption are already apparent. Among them, a senior Indian bureaucrat told reporters that sanctioned vessels won’t be allowed to discharge, although the country’s state-owned refiners expect Moscow to find workarounds. The potential for Russian oil to continue reaching its intended destinations is easing some concerns about supply disruptions, and “crude traders are pausing to evaluate the evolving information before deciding whether to chase the rally further,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned that Trump’s tariffs won’t have exemptions for oil after meeting the president-elect in Florida. More than half of US crude imports come from Canada, most of it from Alberta. WTI for February delivery fell 1.7% to settle at $77.50 a barrel in New York. Brent for March delivery slid 1.3% to settle at $79.92 a barrel.

USA EIA Reveals Latest WTI Oil Price Forecasts -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts in its January short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently. In that STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price will average $70.31 per barrel in 2025 and $62.46 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in December, forecast that the 2025 WTI spot price would average $69.12 per barrel. That STEO did not include a WTI spot price forecast for 2026. A quarterly breakdown included in the latest STEO showed that the EIA expects the WTI spot price to come in at $72.34 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $71 per barrel in the second quarter, $70 per barrel in the third quarter, $68 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $64.97 per barrel in the fifth quarter of 2026, $63.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $61.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year. The EIA’s December STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $69.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $69.83 per barrel in the second quarter, $69.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $67.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The EIA’s January STEO put the 2024 WTI spot price average at $76.60 per barrel. Its December STEO had it at $76.51 per barrel. A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Monday revealed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $69 per barrel in 2025, and $57 per barrel in 2026. The company sees the WTI crude price coming in at $70 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $60 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the research note. The research note put the 2024 WTI price average at $77 per barrel. A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell this week showed that Standard Chartered expects the NYMEX WTI Basis nearby future crude oil price to average $79 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81 per barrel in the second quarter, $86 per barrel in the third quarter, $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $88 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the second quarter. A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group last month showed that BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projected that the WTI crude front month price would average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $73 per barrel in 2025. In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Wednesday, Macquarie strategists noted that “both WTI and Brent speculative (MM + Other) net length grew over the past week”. “WTI net length increased by 37.9K while Brent rose by 22.3K. WTI spec net length gained as new long interest was over five greater than added shorts,” the strategists highlighted in that report. In a market analysis sent to Rigzone early Thursday, Antonio Di Giacomo, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, highlighted that the price of WTI crude oil had “experienced a notable increase, surpassing $80 per barrel”.

Oil prices slip on US energy demand forecast (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after a U.S. government agency forecast steady U.S. oil demand in 2025 while lifting its forecast for supply. Declines were limited by new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China. Brent futures fell $1.09, or 1.35%, to settle at $79.92 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $77.50 a barrel, down $1.32, or 1.67%. On Monday, prices jumped 2% after the U.S. Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), opens new tab and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia's so-called shadow fleet of tankers. On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the country's oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million bpd, an increase from the agency's previous forecast of 13.52 million bpd for this year. Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said markets were anticipating the EIA short-term energy outlook to see if a predicted gain in supply would be reversed. "They're waiting to see if the glut EIA predicted earlier is still in the forecast," While analysts were still expecting a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest. ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000-bpd surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower. "The actual reduction in flows will likely be less, as Russia and buyers find ways around these sanctions," they said in a note. Uncertainty about demand from major buyer China could blunt the impact of the tighter supply. China's crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.

WTI Holds Gains As 'Tank Bottoms' Loom At Cushing Hub; Crude Stocks Drop For 8th Straight Week -Overnight weakness (Israel-Hamas peace deal headlines) was offset by a marginally softer-than-expected CPI print (dovish demand hopes) to send oil prices higher this morning (WTI at $79). Additionally, oil prices were supported by OPEC's forecast of another year of steady oil demand growth, driven by India and China, in its first detailed assessment of 2026.Overnight saw a mixed picture from API again with strong product builds while crude stocks decline... API

Crude -2.6mm (-3.5mm exp)
Cushing +600k
Gasoline +5.4mm
Distillates +4.9mm

DOE

Crude -1.96mm (-3.5mm exp)
Cushing +765k - biggest build since Oct
Gasoline +5.85mm
Distillates +3.08mm

Total crude stocks fell for the 8th straight week while Cushiung saw its biggest build since October. On the products side, we continue to see huge builds... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Despite the small build this week, stocks at the critical Cushing Hub are at their seasonal lowest since 2008 (and lowest absolute level since 2014). 'Tank Bottoms' are here...Quite a divergence between gasoline and crude stocks...US Crude production dipper once again but remains very close to record highs...WTI is holding up near $79 after the data... World oil consumption will increase by a “robust” 1.4 million barrels a day in 2026, equaling the pace expected for this year and surpassing the predicted growth in supplies, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report on Wednesday. In theory, that should allow Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners to revive halted production, ultimately restoring roughly 2 million of barrels a day over the course of the next two years. However, the cartel’s bullish outlook is undermined both by signs of faltering economic growth in China and its failure to accurately predict demand last year.

Crude Oil Rebounds Strongly After Overnight Plunge, Supported by Inventory Draw and U.S. Sanctions Recap: The oil market on Wednesday posted an outside trading day as the market sold off in overnight trading before it retraced all of its losses and rallied sharply higher. The market was well supported by a large draw in U.S. crude oil stocks and the potential supply disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia. The crude market breached its previous low and posted a low of $77.24 in overnight trading as the market awaited news of a possible Israeli-Hamas ceasefire deal and the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. However, the market bounced off its low and never looked back. The oil market breached its previous high after the EIA reported that crude oil stocks fell to the lowest level since 2022 as exports increased and imports fell. The market posted a high of $80.31 ahead of the close despite the announcement of a Gaza ceasefire deal. The February WTI contract settled up $2.54 at $80.04 and continued to trend higher in the post settlement period, posting a high of $80.77. The March Brent contract settled up $2.11 at $82.03. The product markets also rallied sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.82 cents at $2.6135 and the RB market settling up 5.43 cents at $2.1589. U.S. President Joe Biden announced that Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire and hostage deal that will end the fighting in Gaza and will be followed by a surge of humanitarian aid in Gaza. The deal outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian detainees held by Israel. Earlier, Hamas said its delegation handed mediators its approval for the ceasefire agreement and return of hostages. Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, said he was cutting a visit to Europe short and returning to Israel to take part in security cabinet and government votes on the deal, meaning the votes would likely be by or on Thursday. In its monthly report, the IEA said the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil announced last Friday could significantly disrupt the country’s oil supply chains. The IEA’s oil market outlook still suggests that the global market will be in surplus this year due to supply growth exceeding subdued expansion in demand. The IEA said that tighter sanctions, as well as a cold weather snap in the northern hemisphere, had propelled crude prices above $80/barrel in early January. However, the IEA said price gains could be tempered by strong non-OPEC+ supply growth, the OPEC+ coalition looking to unwind cuts, and the ability to draw on stocks quickly if needed. The IEA now expects global oil supply growth to reach 1.8 million bpd in 2025, with non-OPEC+ production accounting for the majority at 1.5 million bpd. That is faster than its forecast for oil demand growth this year of 1.05 million bpd, after a slight downward adjustment from 1.1 million bpd in the previous month’s report. OPEC forecast world oil demand in 2026 will increase at a similar rate to this year, while reducing its figure for 2024 for a sixth time, following economic weakness in China. The 2026 forecast is in line with its view oil use will increase for the next two decades, in contrast to the IEA that predicts it will peak this decade as the world shifts to cleaner energy. In its monthly report, OPEC said demand will increase by 1.43 million bpd in 2026, a similar rate to the growth of 1.45 million bpd expected this year. OPEC estimated this year’s demand growth at 1.5 million bpd, compared with 1.61 million bpd reported in last month’s report, amounting to a sixth consecutive cut in the 2024 forecast.

Oil rallies, settles at multi-month high on US crude draw, Russia sanctions | (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday, supported by a large draw in U.S. crude stockpiles and potential supply disruptions caused by new U.S. sanctions on Russia, while a Gaza ceasefire deal limited gains. Brent crude futures settled $2.11, or 2.64%, higher at $82.03 a barrel, the highest since August 2024. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up $2.54, or 3.28%, at $80.04 a barrel, the highest since July. In post settlement trade, Brent rose to the highest since July and WTI gained more than $3 a barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week to their lowest since 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported, as exports rose and imports fell. Gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected. "The crude oil draw was largely on import-export dynamics," . "The exports are hard to believe," he added, pointing to the fact that many were booked before the sanctions announcement. The latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt Russian oil supply and distribution significantly, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report. Jitters over sanctions seem to be supporting prices, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Tankers carrying Russian crude seem to be struggling offloading their cargoes around the world, potentially driving some short-term tightness," he added. Limiting the gains, Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official. Concerns over supply disruption eased with Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal reached. Investors remained focused on signs of a strengthening economy and oil demand. The dollar index slipped on Wednesday after U.S. data showed consumer prices rose slightly above expectations in December, heightening expectations for more interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A weaker dollar (.DXY), opens new tab usually supports oil prices and lower interest rates can boost economic growth. Meanwhile, OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate to 2025, the producer group said.

Oil prices slip lower; profit-taking after recent rally – Oil prices retreated Thursday, with traders taking profits after hitting multi-month peaks in the previous session, driven by a combination of softer U.S. inflation data, new sanctions on Russian oil, and significant drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories. At 08:20 ET (13:20 GMT), Brent Oil Futures were 0.5% lower at $81.62 a barrel, and Crude Oil WTI Futures expiring in March fell 0.5% to $78.34 a barrel. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday as a benign US inflation report brought back rate cut expectations into play. The prospect of lower interest rates typically supports economic growth, potentially boosting oil demand. US inflation data and its impact on oil prices U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose by 0.4%, largely in line with economists' expectations, while an underlying measure was slower than anticipated. The soft inflation data spurred a rally in oil prices, as it raised expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance, potentially weakening the US dollar and boosting demand for commodities like crude oil. The data alleviated some concerns about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook, where it has projected just two rate cuts in 2025. When interest rates are lower, borrowing becomes cheaper, encouraging both businesses and consumers to spend more. This increased economic activity can drive higher demand for oil, as industries and transportation sectors require more energy. Additionally, lower rates often lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, which makes oil, priced in dollars, more affordable for foreign buyers. As a result, the combination of stronger demand and a weaker dollar typically leads to rising oil prices. The US Dollar Index fell 0.1% on Thursday, retreating further from its two-year peak. US sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt supply - IEA In a strategic move, the U.S. has imposed new sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that these sanctions could disrupt Russia's oil supply chains, potentially tightening the global oil market. The sanctions focus on entities responsible for over a third of Russian and Iranian crude exports in 2024, aiming to limit their ability to transport and sell oil. This development has raised concerns about potential supply shortages, contributing to the upward pressure on oil prices. "While it is too early to fully quantify the potential impact from these new measures, some operators have reportedly already started to pull back from Iranian and Russian oil," the Paris-based agency said. "The oil market continues to be focused on the uncertainty around Russian oil supply following the announcement of stricter US sanctions against the Russian energy sector," said analysts at ING, in a note. US crude inventories decline - EIA report Supporting the bullish sentiment, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant drawdown in crude oil inventories. This reduction indicates a tightening supply, further bolstering oil prices. Crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels in the week ending Jan. 10, compared with a forecast of 992,000-barrel draw. Gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected for the week.

Oil Falls After Gaza Ceasefire Deal Oil prices retreated in Thursday’s trading after Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal following 15 months of war. According rto Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, the agreement will come into effect on Sunday if approved by the Israeli cabinet. Brent crude for March delivery was down 0.80% to trade at $81.37 per barrel at 1:01 pm ET, while WTI crude pulled back 1.39% to change hands at $78.93.Maritime security officials now expect the Houthi militia to announce a halt in attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Since the beginning of the Middle East war, Houthi rebels in Yemen significantly stepped up attacks on commercial shipping vessels in-transit via the lower Red Sea in retaliation for Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, increasing the risk for ships passing through the Suez Canal. The Red Sea is one of the world’s most densely packed shipping channels and the most significant waterway connecting Europe to Asia and east Africa. About 12% of global trade, including 30% of global container traffic, passes through the Red Sea, meaning that delays there can potentially affect fuel prices as well as the availability of various commodities and electronics. Dozens of companies halted shipping in the Red Sea and at the Suez canal. Four of the world’s five largest container-shipping companies, namely Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA, CGM and MSC, also paused or suspended their services in the Red Sea, the route through which traffic from the Suez Canal must pass. The Suez Canal is one of the most important channels of the global oil trade. Northbound traffic worth ~3.9 million bpd is dominated by crude oil from Middle East producers to Europe and also middle distillates from India and the Middle East. Southbound traffic, estimated at 2.9 million bpd, comprises crude flows mainly from Russia to Asian customers, and also refined products naphtha and fuel oil. The United States, Qatar and Russia are the leading shippers of LNG via Suez.

Oil settles lower on expected halt to Houthi shipping attacks (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday with Yemen's Houthi militia expected to halt attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and investors weighing strong U.S. retail sales data. Brent crude futures settled down 74 cents, or 0.9%, at $81.29 per barrel, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest price since July 26. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.36, or 1.7%, to $78.68 a barrel, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday to their highest price since July 19. U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 at times during the session.Maritime security officials said they were expecting the Houthi militia to announce a halt in its attacks on ships in the Red Sea, after a ceasefire deal in the war in Gaza between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas.The attacks have disrupted global shipping, forcing firms to make longer and more expensive journeys around southern Africa for more than a year. "The Houthi development and the ceasefire in Gaza help the region stay calmer, taking some of the security premium out of oil prices," "It's all about oil flows," But investors remained cautious, as the leader of the Houthis said his group would monitor the implementation of the ceasefire deal, and continue its attacks on vessels or Israel if the deal is breached.The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip should start on Sunday as planned, despite the need for negotiators to tie up a "loose end," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. Earlier on Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported U.S. retail sales increased in December as households bought more motor vehicles and a range of other goods, pointing to strong demand in the economy. U.S. crude futures extended losses after investors interpreted the data as bolstering the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to cutting interest rates this year. But prices regained some ground after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation is likely to continue to ease and possibly allow the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates sooner and faster than expected. "Waller's comments really offset the economic data this morning, in terms of making it look like there is room for the Fed to cut," Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand. Investors also continued to weigh the Biden administration's latest round of sanctions targeting Russia's military industrial base and sanctions-evasion efforts, after earlier levying broader sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers. Moscow's top customers are now scouring the globe for replacement barrels, while shipping rates also have surged. With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump being sworn in for his second term on Monday, "the market is approaching the 'wait-and-see' phase and awaits the reaction from the incoming U.S. administration on the issue" of sanctions, Pricier oil may lead to clashes between Trump and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, if the incoming U.S. president follows his previous playbook. During his first term, Trump demanded the producer group rein in prices whenever Brent climbed to around $80 a barrel.

Oil prices dip but post 4th straight weekly gain on US sanctions (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Friday but notched their fourth straight weekly gain, as the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian energy trade added to worries about oil supply disruptions. Brent crude futures dipped 50 cents, or 0.6%, at $80.79 per barrel, but gained 1.3% this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 80 cents, or 1%, at $77.88 a barrel, having climbed 1.7% for the week."Sanctions on Russia are causing tightness of supply in Europe, India and China," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.The Biden administration unveiled broader sanctions last week targeting Russian oil producers and tankers.Investors are also assessing the potential implications of President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House on Monday. Trump's pick for Treasury secretary said he was ready to impose tougher sanctions on Russian oil.Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week up to Jan. 14, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. Speculators raised combined futures and options positions in New York and London by 8,038 contracts to 215,193 over that period.However, weighing on oil prices were expectations of a halt in attacks by Yemen's Houthi militia on ships in the Red Sea following a Gaza ceasefire deal.The Houthis' attacks have disrupted global shipping, forcing ships to make longer and more expensive journeys around southern Africa for more than a year.The Israeli security cabinet approved the ceasefire deal on Friday, paving the way for the return of the first hostages from Gaza as early as Sunday. The accord was still conditional on approval by the full cabinet, which was meeting on Friday afternoon.Expectations for increased demand lent some support to the oil market earlier on Friday. Data this week showed inflation easing in the U.S., the world's biggest economy, bolstering expectations of interest-rate cuts.Traders are also assessing fresh data from China, the world's top oil importer. Its economy fulfilled the government's ambitions for 5% growth last year.However, China's oil refinery throughput in 2024 fell for the first time in more than two decades barring the pandemic year of 2022, government data showed on Friday, as plants tempered operations in response to stagnant fuel demand and depressed margins.Meanwhile, the U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future output, fell by two to 478 this week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. A blast of Arctic air is set to cover much of the United States with temperatures below freezing starting on Friday and into next week, and is set to drive up heating oil demand and likely impact some production operations.

Oil prices score a 4th straight weekly gain on supply fears -- Oil futures settled lower on Friday, but scored a fourth straight week of gains after wider sanctions against Russia's energy industry tightened supply.Uncertainty also remains over President-elect Donald Trump's moves on energy policy ahead of his Monday inauguration.

-- West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery fell 80 cents, or 1%, to settle at $77.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for a 1.7% weekly gain. The more heavily traded March WTI contract CL00 CLH25 lost 46 cents, or 0.6%, at $77.39 a barrel.
-- March Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined 50 cents, or 0.6%, to $80.79 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, tallying a 1.3% weekly advance.
-- February gasoline RBG25 shed 0.5% to $2.11 a gallon, up 1.8% for the week, while February heating oil HOG25 rose nearly 0.2% to $2.62 a gallon, settling up 4.8% for the week.
-- Natural gas for February delivery NGG25 settled at $3.95 per million British thermal units, down 7.3% for the session to post a loss of 1% for the week. Prices had ended Wednesday at their highest in two years.

"As the Trump administration takes office next week, sanctions and trade barriers are likely to remain in focus,".A harsher stance on enforcement against Iranian crude exports could impact 1% to 2% of global supply, while the threat of import tariffs on Canadian crude imports could raise input costs for U.S. refiners, Fraser said. "Any statements on near-term action surrounding those topics could emerge as primary price drivers for crude in the weeks ahead," he wroteThe Biden administration last Friday imposed wider sanctions on Russia's energy industry, targeting additional producers and more than 180 vessels, as well as Russia-based oilfield-service providers and Russian energy officials. That fed an overall rally in oil prices, with the U.S. crude benchmark up 8.6% year to date."These sanctions are proving effective, with Russia's shadow fleet facing significant challenges in unloading cargo," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, told MarketWatch.The moves caused buyers in India and China - the two largest destinations for Russian crude - to look for alternative suppliers, Barbara Lambrecht, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a Friday note. The Biden administration also took tougher action aimed at Iran's shadow fleet, which the International Energy Agency has estimated could affect 500,000 barrels a day of crude supply.As a result, the key question for oil traders is what position Trump will take on Russia and Iran sanctions, Lambrecht said."If tougher action against Iran becomes likely, oil prices could jump further in the current tense situation. However, we assume that the future U.S. president will rather avoid the impending price surge and initially use the sanctions as a bargaining chip in possible negotiations with Russia," the analyst wrote.Innes said he's skeptical that Trump will be content with WTI prices lingering in the upper $70s as he takes office."His track record suggests he might pressure Saudi Arabia to increase oil output," said Innes. "Given that OPEC+ currently has a significant [production] cushion with 5.8 million barrels per day, or 5.3% of global production capacity held back, they could quickly mitigate the impact of sanctions."'This is not just another year in commodities - it's one poised on the knife edge of geopolitical influences and economic recalibrations.”. Still, Innes warned traders to "brace for a dynamic and potentially tumultuous year in crude-oil markets."Trump's "unpredictability could exacerbate price swings," he said. "This is not just another year in commodities - it's one poised on the knife edge of geopolitical influences and economic recalibrations."

Turkey Confirms Key Gas Pipeline Was Attacked After Kremlin Accused United States -Moscow has this week made a big and provocative accusation, saying that the United States is seeking to sabotage the last pipeline transporting Russian gas exports into Europe, the TurkStream.Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alleged in a Tuesday press briefing that Washington is encouraging "terrorist" attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. He specifically cited plans to target TurkStream, following a recent large-scale drone attack. "The US does not tolerate competition in any sphere, including energy. They are recklessly endorsing terrorist activities aimed at undermining the energy stability of the European Union," Lavrov said as quoted in Turkey's Anadolu news agency."They are encouraging their Ukrainian proxies to disable TurkStream following the sabotage of Nord Stream," he followed with.He described that Russia's anti-air defenses were able to down nine Ukrainian drones during the attack which targeted part of TurkStream's infrastructure.On Wednesday regional media quoted Turkey's top energy official as confirming there was an attempted attack out of Ukraine, but that gas is still flowing uninterrupted: Following an attempted attack on the TurkStream natural gas pipeline on Jan. 11, Türkiye’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, confirmed the attack took place but assured the public that the incident did not disrupt the gas flow.Responding to questions from journalists in the Turkish Parliament, Bayraktar stated: "There was no interruption in gas flow after the attack. The pipeline continues to deliver gas at the same capacity."Following Ukraine's refusal to renew a key transit contract with Moscow which expired by close of 2024, the TurkStream pipeline remains the only route carrying Russian gas into the European Union.Russia's RT news has summarized the geography and significance of TurkStream as follows:TurkStream is a critical energy corridor, transporting natural gas from Russia to Türkiye under the Black Sea. It also remains the sole route supplying Russian natural gas to southern and southeastern Europe after Ukraine refused to extend a gas transit agreement with Moscow this year.In 2024, gas shipments via the pipeline increased by 23%, reaching 16.7 billion cubic meters (bcm). The pipeline comprises two sections: one serving Türkiye’s domestic needs, while the other transits gas to Bulgaria through the Strandzha station. This Balkan route extends through Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary, with connections facilitating the distribution of Russian gas to other EU states. With a total capacity of 31.5 bcm annually, TurkStream plays a vital role in regional energy security.As for Lavrov's initial accusation Tuesday, which Washington rejects, he also stated: "I have a firm belief that the US needs no competitor in any fields, starting with energy."

The Middle East’s new ‘cold war’: the Gulf states vs. neo-Ottoman Turkey - The Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation as new rivalries reshape its geopolitical order. For decades, the defining conflict in the region was a “cold war” between Iran and the Gulf Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia. This struggle, steeped in sectarian and strategic divides, fueled proxy wars and power struggles across the region. Today, that longstanding rivalry is being eclipsed by a new competition. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the rise of Turkey as a resurgent power have created a fresh dynamic — not just for regional dominance but also for leadership within the Sunni Muslim world. Iran, recognizing the growing challenge posed by Ankara’s neo-Ottoman ambitions, is recalibrating its strategy, seeking detente and even entente with the Gulf monarchies to resist Turkey’s expanding influence. These developments illustrate the timeless logic of balance-of-power politics as regional actors adapt to shifting strengths and threats. The fall of the Assad regime has shattered the Middle East status quo. Once a linchpin for Iranian power projection into the Levant and a key ally of Russia, Syria under Assad served as a critical buffer and as a conduit for Tehran’s influence. The regime’s collapse has left Syria fractured and destabilized, creating a vacuum that Turkey has eagerly moved to fill. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has adopted an assertive foreign policy, leveraging military, economic and ideological tools to expand its regional presence. From incursions into northern Syria to deeper involvement in Libya, Somalia and Qatar, Turkey has sought to position itself as a dominant regional player. Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman rhetoric, invoking Turkey’s imperial past, resonates deeply with his domestic audience but alarms other powers in the region. Ankara’s rise is not just a matter of military or political influence; it has reshaped the competition for leadership within the Sunni Muslim world. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have long claimed this mantle, citing their stewardship of Islam’s holiest sites and immense financial resources. Turkey challenges this narrative by supporting political Islam and movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Gulf monarchies view as existential threats to their regimes. This ideological divide is deepening the geopolitical rift, as Gulf leaders see Turkey not merely as a rival but as a destabilizing force. The Gulf-versus-Turkey rivalry is already playing out across multiple arenas. In Libya, Turkey’s support for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord clashes with the UAE’s and Egypt’s backing of Khalifa Haftar’s forces. In the Horn of Africa, Turkey’s growing presence in Somalia has raised alarms in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which view the region as critical to their own security and influence. The 2017 Gulf blockade of Qatar, in which Turkey quickly intervened on Doha’s behalf, revealed the depth of mistrust between Ankara and the Gulf capitals. Economic competition is further intensifying the rivalry. Turkey aims to position itself as a global trade hub, leveraging its location as a bridge between Europe and Asia. The Gulf states, however, are investing heavily in infrastructure and alliances to counter Ankara’s ambitions. This is not just a contest for influence but a broader struggle over the direction of power and development in the region. Amid this shifting landscape, Iran is rethinking its approach. For decades, Tehran’s pursuit of regional hegemony put it in direct conflict with the Gulf monarchies, even prompting some Gulf Cooperation Council states to partner with Israel through the Abraham Accords. Now, Iran is redirecting its focus to counter Turkey’s rise.

Israel Continues Ceasefire Violations as New Lebanon PM Promises to Rebuild - With around 12 days remaining in the 60-day Israel ceasefire with Lebanon, Israel continues to commit multiple violations per day. A number of airstrikes are being conducted in southern and easternLebanon, along with a systematic destruction of civilian homes in villages near the Israeli border. Israel is supposed to entirely withdraw its military from Lebanese territory by the end of the ceasefire. The US special envoy has “guaranteed” that will happen, though there remain substantial questions about that, and the places Israel has left have been more or less destroyed during their occupation.Whether the pullout happens in the next couple of weeks or not, Lebanon will have it’s work cut out for it in trying to rebuild after the Israeli invasion. Their economy wasn’t in great shape in the first place, and Israel has destroyed much of the infrastructure across the south, as well causing massive damage elsewhere.PM-designate Nawaf Salam, who was only designated to try to form Lebanon’s next government the day before, is promising to see destroyed homes rebuilt and for Lebanon to start a “new phase of progress and opportunities.” Salam, whose nomination was supported by a considerable margin of MPs, promises reforms and says he will work for a “full Israeli withdrawal” from Lebanon. He says his intention is to extend stateauthority across all of Lebanon.But before he does anything, he’ll have to form a government. That means putting together a majority coalition in Lebanon’s parliament. Though enough MPs were comfortable with his nomination as a replacement for predecessor Najib Mikati, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be on board with joining a government.Selling enough groups on joining is no small task. Lebanon has 128 MPs, so Salam only needs 65 to form a government. But he has no party himself, and even the biggest blocs have fewer than 20 MPs, so he’ll need quite a few small blocs to cross that threshold. Signs are that Salam will be trying to form a government without any of the Shi’ite parties, meaning two of the three largest blocs, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, are likely to be excluded. How he’ll offer enough cabinet positions to get enough tiny blocs and independents on board remains to be seen.

Israeli Strikes Kill 63 Palestinians in Gaza Amid Talk of Ceasefire Deal - Amid reports that a Gaza ceasefire deal is advancing, Israeli strikes continued to pound the Strip on Tuesday, killing at least 63 Palestinians since dawn, medical sources told Al Jazeera early Wednesday morning.Among the dead were two children killed by an Israeli attack while sheltering in a tent in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza. Sources told Al Jazeera that a total of 28 Palestinians were killed in central and southern Gaza.Israeli strikes also hit northern Gaza, killing several Palestinians in Gaza City, according to the Palestinian news agency WAFA. An Israeli attack on a gathering of civilians in the al-Shati camp, west of Gaza City, killed at least two.On Tuesday night, an Israeli strike on a building sheltering displaced Palestinians in Deir el-Balah killed at least 13 Palestinians.Hani Mahmoud, an Al Jazeera reporter in central Gaza, said there was cautious optimism among Palestinians over the reports of a ceasefire deal being close. “Everybody’s anxious and waiting, but there are still people who keep saying that they have been let down so many times in the past,” he said.Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its daily update, which it releases about mid-day Gaza time, that Israeli strikes killed at least 61 Palestinians and wounded 281 over the past 24 hours, a total that includes casualties from Monday.The Health Ministry’s numbers only account for dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.

Report: Israel and Hamas Agree 'in Principle' to Ceasefire and Hostage Deal - CBS News reported Tuesday that both Israel and Hamas have agreed “in principle” to a draft hostage and ceasefire deal that could be finalized this week.The report, which cited US, Arab, and Israeli officials, said if the final details are worked out and the Israeli government approves it, the deal could be implemented as soon as this weekend, before the January 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.The Associated Press had a similar report that said Hamas had accepted a draft deal and that details were still being finalized before Israeli approval. The deal is largely based on a proposal President Biden put forward in May 2024, which Hamas accepted months ago.According to Israeli media reports, pressure on Netanyahu from Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is the reason why there’s been progress in recent days.The deal involves three phases, but according to AP, it would not commit Israel to a permanent ceasefire or full withdrawal from Gaza.The AP report reads: “Details of the second phase still must be negotiated during the first. Those details remain difficult to resolve — and the deal does not include written guarantees that the ceasefire will continue until a deal is reached. That means Israel could resume its military campaign after the first phase ends.”According to media reports, the first phase involves a 42-day ceasefire, and during that time, Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages, including women, children, the elderly, and five female IDF soldiers. Some of the hostages released in the first phase may be dead, but Israeli officials said they believe most are still alive. In exchange, Israel is expected to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.During the first phase, Israeli troops will withdraw from population centers in Gaza, and Palestinians will be able to return to north Gaza, although there is nothing for them to return to since IDF has destroyed nearly every building in sight. Aid deliveries will also be surged, with 600 trucks per day expected to enter the Strip.The second phase of the deal would involve the release of all male Israeli hostages from Gaza and a full IDF withdrawal, with many details still needing to be worked out. The third phase would involve the exchange of bodies and the start of the reconstruction of Gaza.

Trump Envoy Swayed Netanyahu More In One Meeting Than Biden Did All Year On Gaza Peace - Even Israeli media is very clearly attributing achievement of the Gaza ceasefire deal to President-elect Donald Trump and his team. President Biden too at one point in an afternoon press conference hailing the deal acknowledged that he spoke as 'one team' with Trump on the Gaza deal. According to The Times of Israel: A "tense" weekend meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and incoming Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff led to a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations, with the top aide to US President-elect Donald Trump doing more to sway the premier in a single sit-down than outgoing President Joe Biden did all year, two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday. Witkoff has been in Doha for the past week to take part in the hostage negotiations, as mediators try to secure a deal before Trump’s January 20 inauguration. On Saturday, Witkoff flew to Israel for a meeting with Netanyahu at the premier’s Jerusalem office. During the meeting, Witkoff urged Netanyahu to accept key compromises necessary for an agreement, the two Arab officials on Monday told The Times of Israel on condition of anonymity. Neither Witkoff nor Netanyahu’s office responded to requests for comment. As expected, Biden disagrees with this assessment... Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to make a public statement. Interestingly, Trump was the first leader to hail the deal, attributing it largely to his election victory in November and anticipation of his entering the Oval Office next Monday (see below). But Biden chalked it up to his own diplomacy: "This deal will halt the fighting in Gaza, surge much-needed humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians and reunite the hostages with their families after more than 15 months in captivity," he said in the statement.The US president said Wednesday's agreement "not only of the extreme pressure that Hamas has been under and the changed regional equation after a ceasefire in Lebanon and weakening of Iran — but also of dogged and painstaking American diplomacy. He claimed, "My diplomacy never ceased in their efforts to get this done." Many political analysts, including Glenn Greenwald, would beg to differ.

Houthis Again Target US Carrier In Red Sea Just As Gaza Truce Deal Announced - Yemen's Houthis have once again announced that military forces have targeted American warships in the Red Sea. The Pentagon has not offered confirmation, however, and rarely admits to coming under such direct attacks.The Wednesday statement said missiles and drones were launched against the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier and other US warships patrolling the Red Sea. It's unknown whether direct hits resulted, or if all projectiles were intercepted."The missile force and the drone air force of the Yemeni Armed Forces … carried out a joint military operation targeting the American aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and a number of its warships in the northern Red Sea with a number of winged missiles and drones, during their attempt to carry out operations to target Yemen," the statement reads."This targeting of the carrier is the sixth since its arrival in the Red Sea," it added. The Iran-backed group has clearly remained committed and defiant as it blocks Red Sea shipping, despite several rounds of US-UK-Israeli bombing campaigns.The timing of this attack is interesting given that widespread reports of Hamas and Israeli having achieved a peace deal have persisted over the last 12 hours. President Biden as well as Donald Trump are hailing the deal, which still has to be voted on by Israeli lawmakers, which is set for Thursday morning. The Houthis have consistently demanded that for it to halt its Red Sea attacks there must be full Israeli military withdrawal from the Strip. The Houthi statement said it remains "ready for any American or Israeli escalation and will continue to perform its duties towards the oppressed Palestinian people," and that "operations will not stop until the aggression stops and the siege on the Gaza Strip is lifted." If the promised hostage exchange happens by week's end, the Houthis might halt these attacks or at least dial them back. Recently several ballistic missiles have been launched on central Israel. If the Yemeni operations do persist, it could complicate or damage efforts to keep the peace in the Gaza Strip, as it's already sure to be an extremely delicate and fragile truce.

Netanyahu's Likud Party Says Ceasefire Deal Allows a 'Return to Fighting Under American Guarantee' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party said in a statement on Thursday that the Gaza ceasefire deal will allow “Israel to return to fighting under American guarantee.”The statement was a response to National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, who has threatened to quit the coalition government if the ceasefire deal is approved.The three-phase ceasefire deal does not commit Israel to a permanent truce, and the statement from Likud signals the US has assured Israel it could resume its genocidal war after the first phase, which involves a 42-day ceasefire and initial hostage exchange.According to Israeli sources speaking to Ynet, Netanyahu has reached an understanding with the incoming Trump administration that he could restart military operations if he deems Hamas is violating the deal.The Likud statement also signaled that Israel got some kind of guarantee about getting additional military aid from the US for agreeing to the ceasefire deal.The statement said the deal allows Israel to “receive the weapons and means of warfare it needs, maximize the number of live hostages released, maintain full control of the Philadelphi Corridor and the security buffer that surrounds the entire Gaza Strip, and achieve dramatic security achievements that will ensure Israel’s security for generations.”According to Israel Hayom, the US and Israel have reached an understanding that the deal includes “the unfreezing of previously delayed US military aid, with IDF and Defense Ministry officials now cleared to submit comprehensive rearmament requests for both immediate and long-term needs.”In response to the Likud statement, Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power said it still opposed the deal. “This deal is a violation of all of the prime minister’s public commitments to his partners and the Israeli public. It includes stopping the war, leaving the Philadelphia Corridor, abandoning the Netzarim Corridor, returning the terrorists to the northern Gaza Strip without inspection, and releasing hundreds of murderers with Jewish blood on their hands,” the party said. If the Jewish Power party quits the coalition, the Netanyahu government would still have 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, meaning it would still have a majority. But Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has also threatened that his Religious Zionism party could quit, which would bring the government under 60 seats, a scenario that could lead to elections, although the opposition has said it would bail Netanyahu out if he agrees to the ceasefire deal.

Israel massacres dozens in Gaza after Biden announces ceasefire -In a video statement Wednesday afternoon, US President Joe Biden announced that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Hamas and Israel and would be implemented on Sunday. “A ceasefire and a hostage deal have been reached between Israel and Hamas,” Biden said. Biden claimed that the first phase of the agreement would include the “withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages held by Hamas.”Israel reacted to Biden’s announcement by continuing to massacre dozens of people in Gaza. More than 30 people were killed in bombings on refugee camps, residential neighborhoods and hospitals Wednesday following the announcement, on top of 50 that had been killed earlier in the day.The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said following Biden’s announcement, “An official statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be issued only after the completion of the final details of the agreement, which are being worked on at present.”It subsequently said in a statement, “The Israeli negotiations team in Doha reported to Netanyahu of a last-minute attempt by Hamas to withdraw from a clause in the agreement,” adding, “Netanyahu instructed the negotiations team to uphold the understandings that were agreed upon and to reject the last-minute blackmail attempts by Hamas.”Regardless of whether an agreement is finally reached and whether Israeli troops formally withdraw from Gaza, any “ceasefire” would continue the illegal Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and the brutal apartheid regime to which the Palestinians are subjected.Notably, the Israeli “ceasefire” with Lebanon worked out in November has been followed by almost daily bombardment of Lebanese territory by Israel, and there is every reason to believe this would be the case for Gaza as well. In fact, if the Israeli military pulls back from Gaza, it is because it will have achieved its aim of leveling the majority of buildings and massacring a significant portion of its population.

Israeli Strikes Kill at Least 87 Palestinians in Gaza Since Ceasefire Deal Announced - Israeli strikes on Gaza have been relentless since it was announced on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had reached a ceasefire deal, which is expected to take effect on Sunday.Al Jazeera reported that as of Thursday night in Gaza, at least 87 Palestinians had been killed since the ceasefire was announced, including 21 children and 25 women. At least 40 of the dead were killed since dawn on Thursday.Israeli attacks on Thursday included heavy bombing in northern Gaza. In Jabalia, at least 20 Palestinians were killed by Israeli strikes. Israeli strikes also pounded Gaza City, including an attack that hit a school-turned-shelter and killed at least two children.The Israeli military said that it bombed 50 targets across Gaza in 24 hours. The IDF claimed it hit “terror targets” but offered no evidence.Haaretz recently revealed that Israeli soldiers frequently kill unarmed civilians and count them as “terrorists” and also bomb buildings where there was previously a Hamas presence, even if there no longer is one.

Thoughts On The Ceasefire Deal -- Caitlin Johnstone - Israel and Hamas have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire and hostage deal, which is scheduled to take effect January 19. The deal as written is apparently virtually identical to the one Hamas agreed to last May, which Netanyahu then sabotaged with the complicity of the Biden administration.As usual, Israel appears to be ramping up its aggressions to kill as many people as possible before the fighting comes to an end. These next few days will be an especially terrifying time to be living in Gaza.The Times of Israel reports that according to two unnamed Arab officials, the middle east envoy for the incoming Trump administration did more to sway Netanyahu in one day than the Biden administration did all year. The Trump camp’s pivotal role in securing the deal has been acknowledged by pretty much everyone at this point, including Biden’s State Department.So it looks like Trump winning ended up being the better result for the people of Gaza, as weird as that sounds. Not because he’s a fantastic peacemaker, but because he did something instead of doing nothing.Which would mean that everyone who said a Trump win will make things worse for Gaza was objectively wrong, and that Biden-Harris were undeniably the greater evil. Cool. Lesson learned.

Israeli Government Approves Hostage/Ceasefire Deal, To Take Effect Sunday - The Israeli Security Cabinet and the Prime Minister’s full cabinet voted in favor of a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated to his security council that he only intends to comply with the first phase of the three-stage agreement.The proposed hostage release agreement and ceasefire between Israel and Hamas cleared its final hurdles. The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the deal on Friday. Netanyahu’s full cabinet voted to approve the agreement early Saturday morning in Israel. Tel Aviv did not immediately issue a statement.Under the deal, fighting in Gaza will pause for six weeks, while Hamas releases over 30 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees. According to the agreement, Tel Aviv is also required to allow 600 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza each day.During the first phase of the agreement, Tel Aviv and Hamas are expected to engage in talks to hammer out the details of the pact’s second and third phases. If carried out to completion, the deal would see an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the Strip’s reconstruction.However, Netanyahu is already indicating that he only intends to allow the first phase of the agreement to play out. According to Israel’s Channel 12, the Prime Minister said during the Security Cabinet meeting that Israel will likely resume fighting after the first phase.Netanyahu’s assurances that he would resume the onslaught in Gaza after six weeks was not enough to gain the support of several members of the Security Cabinet. A member of Netanyahu’s own Likud party, David Amsalem, joined far-right ministers from the Religious Zionism and the Otzma Yehudit parties in voting against the deal.There is some concern that Netanyahu’s insistence the deal will not make it to the second phase could lead to its collapse. “Under the current conditions, there won’t be a second stage to the deal,” a foreign mediator told parties in Israel according to Haaretz. “Hamas won’t willingly enter into an agreement that will lead to its destruction. Netanyahu’s tactics are wrong and won’t bring the last hostages home or end the war.”The most vocal opponent was National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. In a last-minute plea for his fellow ministers to reject the proposal, he said, “Everyone knows that these terrorists will try to harm again, try to kill again.” He continued in the video statement, “I call on my friends in the Likud and in Religious Zionism [parties], it is not yet too late, we still have the cabinet meeting, we can stop this deal, join me, we can stop it.”Mossad chief David Barnea came out strongly in favor of the deal. “We must pay this moral debt. This deal is ethically and morally the right thing to do. It is a humane deal. It includes mechanisms that will ensure our security,” he said. Netanyahu caused alarm on Thursday when he delayed the Israeli vote on the deal, claiming Hamas tried to make last-minute alterations. While the vote was delayed, the ceasefire is still expected to take effect on Sunday with a pause in fighting and the release of three Israeli captives by Hamas.

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